Jonathan Toews – Page 24 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Game #27 – Kings vs. Hawks: Spotlight – It’s Like Looking In a Mirror…Only… Not

By Sam Fels December 3, 2017 1965 0

Ever since the Kings first Cup, and totally ramped up by the Kings-Hawks Double of ’13 and ’14, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews have been handcuffed together. They’ve been essentially the same player every since they came into the league a year apart. Toews was the slightly better goal-scorer, Kopitar the slightly better playmaker. They were clearly the heartbeat of multiple Cup winners. Toews was a dominant force in ’13, and Kopitar dribbled Toews’s head like a basketball in ’14.

And being a year older, Kopitar seemed to hit a wall a year before Toews did. In ’14-’15, Kopitar dropped to just 16 goals and 64 points, both the lowest since his rookie year. Toews was racking up another ring. And then Toews followed Kopitar into the dungeon of age, failing to register 60 points for the first time since his rookie year.

Neither of them improved last year, and both faced serious discussion if they’re dominant days were over. And it was more than just an individual question, because both meant so much to their teams that if they were done being premier #1 centers in the league, it almost certainly meant their teams’ time as true contenders were over as well.

The hope for Hawks fans is that with Kopitar always being a year ahead of Toews, his renaissance so far this year is a harbinger of what Toews can do on the donkey end of the age of 30.

Kopitar comes into tonight’s game at over a point-per-game, and some of his underlying numbers are the best they’ve been since the Kings’ last run. His relative-Corsi again over +3.00, a hallmark of his days as the Hart candidate no one bothered to stay up and watch (including his simply other worldly 61% mark in 2014). His expected-goals relative to his team are up as well from the last two years, but where the numbers jump out is his individual ones.

Kopitar is averaging three more attempts at even-strength this year than he has in the past three seasons, and in line with his 2012-2014 heyday. His individual expected-goals is up to 0.77, which again is way higher than he’d put up the past three years.

Has there been some luck? Oh, sure. He’s shooting 21% at evens and 19% overall. That’s not going to continue. And Kopitar is still tasked with facing the toughest competition the Kings see. Even at just 30 to ask someone to combat top lines and score like a top line seems an awfully big ask.

Clearly, Kopitar has benefitted from the presence of rookie Alex Iafallo. While Iafallo’s numbers aren’t impressive, his game that has real dash and creativity has allowed Kopitar to not have to create and score his own chances. Last year, Kopitar spent most of the season with clinically dead Marian Gaborik and clinically dumb Dustin Brown. The year before that Kopitar was dragging around Brown and Milan Lucic, and you’d be hard pressed to find bigger dummards to have as wingers. Combined with Darryl Sutter’s system, Kopitar was basically forced to try and bulldoze everything. Even Brown is scoring now, getting to just stand around while Kopitar and Iafallo exploit openings. They can be more expressive.

The coaching change has also been a boon, as Kopitar is now allowed to carry the puck through the neutral zone and even try to enter through the middle, something Sutter would have sentenced Kopitar to shit-shoveling duty at the Sutter Farm for in the past. Kopitar has more freedom ever, and drawing defenses to him gives more space to Iafallo, who can actually do something with it unlike Lucic or Gaborik checking his investment portfolio.

Cleary, a coaching change isn’t going to help Toews anytime soon. But realizing a center with that many miles can no longer do everything, giving him a dynamic winger to take some of the creation pressure off seems to have been the trick for Kopitar. Would DeBrincat be that for Toews? Sadly, we may never find out.

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Game #26 – Hawks vs. Stars Preview

By Sam Fels December 2, 2017 1847 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 12-9-4 Stars 14-10-1

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCS CHICAGO

WE GOIN’ HONKY TONKIN’: Defending Big D

The back half of a traditional, divisional home-and-home comes tonight in North Texas, with the Hawks looking to greatly improve on what was a pretty piss poor effort on Thursday. We knew fatigue would come into play somewhere in this hellacious five-in-seven stretch, and at least for the first two periods the Hawks looked leggy. They almost pulled it back in the 3rd, which shows you the flaws in this Dallas team, but their power play problems clipped their hopes.

Obviously, not much can change with these teams in just two days… unless it’s the Hawks and an injury to Corey Crawford puts their whole season teetering on the edge of the Great Abyss. Make no mistake, if Crow were to miss two to three weeks–as he very well might–and the Hawks have a complete balls-up during that, they could be utterly fucked without any of the customary fun before you’re singing Auld Lang Syne. Anton Forsberg has been better than his numbers suggest–that belch-with-barf in Denver skews things–but the Hawks in no way wanted to depend on him full-time this early in the season. Or at all. And J.F. Berube has a terminal case of being J.F. Berube. With his 21 games in the NHL and middling AHL numbers, the Hawks won’t want to break that glass unless it’s a total emergency. Yes, you should be uneasy.

The Stars also play tomorrow night in Denver, so there’s a chance that the Hawks could get a look at Kari Lehtonen tonight which would help the cause, or at least would be likely to. There look to be a couple lineup changes for the Stars as well. Curtis McKenzie was called up to write a sermon that no one will hear as Antoine Roussel has apparently picked up something, and I’m just going to go ahead and say some combo of syphilis and plague because I want to. Martin Hanzal will still miss out, and Julius HONKA! HONKA! won’t get in the lineup so they can keep trained ox Jamie Oleksiak in.

What’s a little worrisome is that with the matchup-advantage at home, the Hawks were still unable to keep Tyler Seguin’s line under control at all. So Hitch can be confident of throwing them out against Toews again and getting chances, or throwing them at the bottom six and having battle station alarms going off in the Hawks zone all night. Expect to see the Seguin line out against Forsling and Rutta at every chance, and don’t expect Q to chase matchups too much because he just doesn’t do it much in the regular season.

Even with Faksa’s and Janmark’s scratching the sheet on Thursday, with Spezza’s wrong-chalice-like decay and Hanzal’s injury, this is still pretty much a one-line team. The Hawks did keep them from scoring at least on Thursday… and lost anyway. So… not encouraging.

With Forsberg in net the Hawks might be tempted to play it a little safer on the road, keeping the third forward as high as possible and dropping their d-men back at the first hint of trouble. Hitch won’t take the foot off the gas too much at home and with the Hawks on the their back up ‘tender. He also won’t stand for the Stars racking up seven penalties again.

Not to keep beating a dead horse–and I don’t know why you keep bringing me down–but given how jammed up things are in the West wildcard picture and given how the strata in the Central have separated, the Hawks can’t afford to drop too many points to teams that are joining them in this mud-covered rabble. They got a point against the Stars last out but really can’t give them more than the two they already did. It’ll be hard to lose touch, but it’ll also be even harder to make up ground. Getting to overtime is something of a loss. Need a regulation win here.

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Live From The Five Hole – The Lost Art Of Keeping A Secret

By Matt McClure November 29, 2017 3196 0

Fresh off an understandable loss to the Preds last night, we take a look at the last week and what it portends to. Get the audio after the jump. No subscription needed.

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Game #20 – Hawks vs. Penguins Preview/Ropes Course: High Voltage

By Sam Fels November 18, 2017 3051 0

Sky Point Malcolm.

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 9-8-2 Penguins 11-7-3

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: WGN, NHL Network for those outside the 606

DOOBIEDOOBIEDOO….: Pensburgh

As if Penguins-Hawks games didn’t have enough narrative with the two apples of Canada’s eyes lining up against each other, tonight everyone can throw in the 10-1 thrashing from Opening Night on top. The Penguins have probably long forgotten about it, at least they should have, and certainly the Hawks have because it didn’t really portend to what was to come. Both teams are having weird and high-action seasons.

For the Penguins, well, I can’t really sum it up any better than this chart:

The Penguins can’t stop the puck right now, and they can’t really score it either. And yet they’ve been able to ground out enough wins to at least hover around the top of the Metro. Some of this is skewed by the Perfect Ten the Hawks put up in October and a gaggle of 7-1 defeats they’ve also suffered. When the Penguins have been bad, DEY BEEN REEL BAD (or maybe just Antti Niemi was. Your pick).

The Penguins underlying numbers aren’t all that impressive either, but then again they weren’t really all that impressive last year and they relied on their superior finishing talent to basically out-finish the chances they created. And it’s essentially the same roster back, so at some point they’re going to revert to that. They are missing a #3 center as Nick Bonino shuffled off to Nasvhille, and the Penguins haven’t replaced him. They traded Scott Wilson for Riley Sheahan to somewhat remedy this. The only problem is that Riley Sheahan blows chunks. So they’re going to have the same problems.

The defense should be better than it’s been. Letang and Dumoulin have been their usual excellent selves, but Justin Schultz hasn’t really hit the heights of years past and Olli Maatta continues to be flaccid. Ian Cole and Chad Ruhwedel round this out by being there. Until Schultz puts it together again, the Penguins lack a little drive from the back.

The big problems have been in goal, where Niemi was nothing short of Chernobyl as the backup, Murray had to play too much and hasn’t been all that good when he has. Tristan Jarry, which apparently is a real name and a real person, has settled the backup role a touch. Still, Murray’s .906 isn’t going to get it done in the long-term.

For the Hawks, they’ll roll out the same lineup as Wednesday, even though a lot of it doesn’t make any damn sense. And with the plodding Franson having to deal with either Crosby or Malkin, you might want to duck for cover. Corey Crawford will get the start.

These are two of the higher-event teams in the league. They take a bunch of shots, and they give up a ton of shots. This one will not be short of happenings, you can be sure. And if either Crawford or Murray aren’t sharp, at least one team is going to put up a crooked number on the scoreboard. It’s going to be a whole thing.

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Who Hurt You, Saad Boy?

By Sam Fels November 14, 2017 3707 0

Don’t worry, I’m not going to talk you off your love Brandon Saad. I love Brandon Saad. Everyone does. I know that when we write a post about a player, we’re pretty much greeted like the Turk asking you to bring your playbook. But that’s not this. Still, it’s probably time to look at what’s going on here.

Brandon Saad has seven goals on the season, which leads the Hawks. But that’s a touch misleading. Four of those came in the season’s first two games. Two of the three following goals came in overtime, where 3-on-3 doesn’t really tell you what the player is providing night in, night out. It would be easier if these goals were not counted toward a season total, but that’ll never happen so let’s just roll with it.

So what’s going on here? Is it a lack of chances? No, it doesn’t appear so. Since the first two games of the season, Saad has had 49 shots in 16 games. That’s over three per game, which is actually way over Saad’s average of two per game (at even strength, by the by). Saad’s career-high in shots per game at evens in 2.23, which came in the ’15 year, his last in Chicago before trade. So as far as volume, there’s nothing off here and in fact it’s been as good as it’s ever been. The 6.1 SH% the past 16 games would seem to be highly to blame. If you want to go by rates, Saad is putting up 11.4 shots per 60 minutes at evens, which is a career-high and by some distance.

When talking about types of chances, this is where we see a dip, but only slight. On the year, Saad is averaging 2.1 scoring chances per game. But if you remove the first two games, when he had eight scoring chances all to himself, it drops to 1.8 chances per game. Again, this isn’t ridiculous or anything, but it’s just above noticeable. If you boil it down to just high-danger chances, Saad has averaged 1.2 per game two seasons ago, 1.06 last year and 1.05 this year per game. But take out the first two games, and it’s down to 0.87.

So Saad is something of a microcosm of the whole team. He’s getting the attempts, number-wise, that he usually does. But they’re not quite coming from the areas that you want them to as often as you want them to, and hence his shooting percentage is going down. It’s gone down more than you’d expect, so certainly some luck is involved as well.

The inclination is to portion some of the blame to his linemates, which have changed from time to time but basically has been Jonathan Toews and Richard Panik. And yes, if you were to look at the very small sample with Patrick Kane, Saad generates 15 shots per 60 with Kane as opposed to 10 with Toews and Panik. His individual attempts go from 15.2 with Toews and Panik to 23.2 with Kane. His individual scoring-chances leap up by a third as well when skating with Kane. Again, limited sample but also not a huge surprise, because this is what Kane does.

On the other side of this debate, is that given the physical skill-set of Saad, you would’t think he’s someone who needs a playmaking center or winger to dominate. Saad should create enough of his own shots, given how he can simply muscle through whatever he wants. Saad is in the top tier of the league when it comes to individual attempts per 60, but he’s 32nd. You wouldn’t call that elite. Among just left wings he’s 9th, which is better, and right in between Panarin and Hall which is a good place to be. Scoring chances among left-wingers he’s seventh, he’s just ahead of Max Pacioretty. So it’s not worth worrying about.

All of this then becomes another referendum on Jonathan Toews again. When Saad’s numbers jump up so high with Kane, and things flatten out so much with Toews, one has to wonder if Toews’s decline from 2016 is quite simply permanent. Or at least if the expectations and usage of Toews need to be adjusted.

Either way, the Hawks need more goals in the 60 minutes from Saad. But let’s give it another 10-15 games before we head for battle stations.

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Game #18 – Al Secord deserved better – Blackhawks 5, Devils 7

By Sam Fels November 13, 2017 1622 0

Folks, I have to enter into a few moments of honesty here. Firstly, I – like the Blackhawks – was not fully invested in this game when it started. Secondly, I turned the game off for good when the Devils tied it up, because I assumed (correctly) that meant they were going to win. Thirdly, I don’t want to talk about this game because it was stupid, and friend of the blog Aaron has made me feel bad about it. So I’m going to be brief. Thanks for understanding.

If there is any one key takeaway from the first period explosion the Blackhawks exhibited tonight, it is that Schamltz and Top Cat need to be on a line together right now. They sparked the three-goal outburst with a rush so beautiful it belonged in the Louvre. Surely, something good coming from them playing together will not spark any interest in Q keeping them together, but it SHOULD, dammit.
Speaking of, Top Cat’s big weekend strikes me as the start of something special for him. That might be optimistic of me, but he’s looked locked in, despite playing on a line with Mo and Curly for his two-striker in Carolina. He had a 76.92 CF% tonight, second on the team overall and first among forwards, and had that goal to boot. He’s proving that he belongs at the NHL level, and showing that skill that’s gonna make him a special player.
I would like to start a petition for Brent Seabrook to get scratched instead of any number for Forsling, Kempny, or Rutta. He’s unabashedly looking like one of their worst players. He posted a fine overall CF% tonight at 52.38, but it was the Devils so don’t get too much hope from that. He was actually a -12.32 in CF%Rel, which was better than only Saad – who we can forgive for an off night – and Lance Bouma. So, yeah. It’s bad.
Staying on the topic of the blue line, Joel showed some progress in his usage of Forsling tonight, letting him start 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone. He still ended the night below team share in CF%, but still had a nice 57.89 shot share while on the ice. I’ll take that.
Jan Rutta looks like he is good. Three points tonight, including a PPG. That is a very good thing for a blue line that needed some good luck.
Who the fuck is Miles Wood? Please keep that name out of my ears forever.
No doubt the most frustrating part of this loss is that the Blackhawks overall were pretty dominant. They owned a 60% shot share – though again, it was the Devils – and ended basically were undone by Crawford’s first bad night in a long time. I am willing to forgive him for that, and we can all move along.

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Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: The Roster

By Sam Fels October 4, 2017 1347

We have made it to the end of this crazy train that is our Blackhawks Player Previews, and no we get set to set to take a look at the roster as a whole. There are a lot of people with a lot of opinions on these Blackhawks, as some feel like they won’t even make the playoffs this season, and others feel like they’re ready to compete for the Stanley Cup again. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle (I think they’ll make the playoffs, and once they’re there just about anything could happen), but in reality there is a strong chance for either of those scenarios to play out.

There’s a lot of “if’s” either way, so it’s basically up to the eye of the beholder which “if’s” seem more likely. They could be a Cup Contender if Corey Crawford remains the best goaltender in the Western Conference. They’ll probably miss the playoffs if Crawford experiences any sort of long term injury. They might be a Cup Contender if Alex DeBrincat and Nick Schmaltz can put up 60 points with Patrick Kane. They could miss the playoffs if those two can’t produce quite yet. They could be a Cup Contender if even two of Connor Murphy, Michal Kempny, and Gustav Forsling prove themselves as capable top-4 defensemen. They could miss the playoffs if those players don’t take the next step. All of those scenarios are certainly possible outcomes of the season, but which outcomes seem more likely are up to your perspective and outlook.

Let’s take the Sam Fels Team Preview approach to this roster preview:

Forwards: The Blackhawks probably have one of the better collections of top-end forward talent in the NHL, because it’s kinda hard to find a better potential line around the NHL than Saad-Toews-Kane, even if that likely will not be a good line. Anisimov is still a good middle-six center, and I explained in my Richard Panik preview why his good production last season is was probably not just a fluke. Ryan Hartman is an excellent third line forward who might be able to flash on your second line if necessary. Schmaltz and DeBrincat looked great in camp/the preseason and could have good seasons. The problem is their fourth line is going to be straight dog shit, Patrick Sharp has one good hip and might play significant time on the second line, and any of those top-nine forwards struggling to score could end up completely fucking up the season. I am generally an optimist and do believe this group as a whole could be quite good, but it may not go our way.

Defense: Aaaaaaaaaaaaand here’s the real problem. Duncan Keith is 33 years old and might end up being their only good defenseman. Seabrook could finish the year weighing 300 lbs. Murphy is a huge question mark, and strangely he could end up being the key to the whole thing. If he’s good, the situation isn’t as dire. If he sucks, it’s made all the worse. Forsling has had flashes on both ends of the spectrum in the pre-season, which only proves how much of a question he is right now. Again, if he proves to be good, it’ll make things a lot better. If we get the same kind of play from him as we saw last year, it won’t make things worse necessarily, but the problem will remain. Kempny is damn near excellent, so hopefully that continues but without Q bottling him up. The problem is just there are just so many question marks about this group, and if Keith goes down they will be completely fucked. I guess we need to hope there is a good defenseman available on the trade market that StanBo can fit within the cap relief he’s getting. I’d call that unlikely.

Goalies: Crawford is the best in the west, and has constantly been solid. He’s the most important Blackhawk bar none. If he gets hurt and misses significant time, they’re completely fucked. If he doesn’t he’s probably good enough to make up for the questions on defense and help this team make the playoffs, even in the Central. Forsberg being an average goalie is all the Hawks need, and that’s all I have to say about that.

Overview: Again, a lot of question marks here, but this is probably a playoff team. They’re not on Nasvhille’s level overall, and especially not on the blue line, but the forward group isn’t too far off, and they have a far superior goaltender. But I don’t think anyone in the division caught up to this Blackhawks group that put up 109 points last year. I highly doubt Nashville struggles as bad during the regular season as they did last year, so the I don’t think Chicago will run into them again in the first round of the playoffs. I really think Nashville and Chicago are gonna end up finishing 1-2 in this division in some order, but again, the Blackhawks have a lot of questions and if the answers aren’t in their favors, they might even end up missing the playoffs. I have a lot of hope and optimism for this group, but I can’t blame you if you don’t.

There’s not much more to be said now. Everything kicks off tomorrow. Go Blackhawks.

Everything Else

Is This It – Hawks 1, Bruins 0

By September 30, 2017 1386

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

And with that, the preseason is finally over, with the Hawks closing the festivities out with an unconvincing 1–0 victory against a collection of strokes and scabs that probably won’t find themselves near the ice in the near future. To the bullets.

-Let’s get it out of the way early: Brent Seabrook looked like a soiled diaper that had been left out in the sun. When he wasn’t getting blown past by AHLers, he was futzing around with janky passes in his own zone. Throughout the game, Crawford got a better look at his face than his ass, which is neigh on impossible to do these days. Yet here we are. He ended the game with a 27.91 CF%, which was positively immaculate compared to his 1^st period CF% of 15.38, which I didn’t know was a real thing. He was also on the ice for 7 of Boston’s 13 high-danger chances. The only player who was on the ice for more high-danger changes was Forsling, with 9. Would you like to guess whom he was paired with most of the game?

-At least we got to see Crow do what Crow does. He looked a little like Bizzaro Brodeur behind the net early on with a few fumbles, but when the Bruins put the heat on in the 2^nd, he stood tall with 16 saves. He ended 38/38, and while the shutout is somewhat expected given the quality of the opponent, that he had to make 33 saves at evens doesn’t induce any swelling in the loins.

-It took a while, but Kempný settled in after a less-than-impressive 1^st period. One thing I noticed in the 1^st and 2^nd was that Kempný liked to skate the puck into the zone with power, but when he got halfway through the circle, he’d sort of freeze, as if to say, “What am I doing here?” A bit more time and a positive outcome or two should shake what looks like tentativeness out of his system.

-It figures that the Hawks would win it on a PP after spending most of the game not doing much on it. On cue, Kane hit Sharp with a cross-ice pass, but when you really look at it, it was a much harder play than it seemed. Kane saucered the pass through the “royal road,” which is the area between the circles from the goal line to the top of the circles. The idea is that passes through the royal road force goalies to move laterally, opening up a lot of holes to shoot at. But what was truly impressive was that Sharp was on his off side, meaning he had to pull the shot back to flick it over Khudobin’s shoulder. All around, really impressive.

-If they want to make Bouma–Kero–Hayden a thing, I’d be OK with that. Aside from a stupid run that led to a near odd-man rush, Bouma was decently responsible in his own zone. Kero seems to rove a bit much for my liking in his own zone.

-The PK looked good. I primarily saw Kempný–Rutta and Keith–Murphy. The forward pairings were consistent, with Schmaltz–Kero, Hartman–Artie the One-Man Party, Saad–Toews, and even Bouma–Hayden.

-Speaking of The Brain, Hayden might have played himself onto the roster. He was aggressive without being stupid, and I really, really like how well he’s skated.

-I kept looking for the hinge on Toews’s stick, because he had some trouble corralling the puck early on. But he and Saad jelled more and more as the game went on, with several high-quality chances.

-Panik, on the other hand, looked lost out there, going so far as to take a temper-tantrum cross-checking penalty after something called Rob O’Gara, whose name I’m certain is nothing more than a fat-fingered registrar’s typo, horsed him on a one-on-one.

-Rutta looked decent. He had one egregious turnover in his own zone late in the 3^rd, but was fine otherwise. Murphy looked a touch worse than him before coming down with a case of “this is boring” or whatever it was that happened to him.

-Alex DeBrincat didn’t put any numbers up tonight, but looked good for the most part. He had a good block in the 1^st, looked confident in the neutral zone throughout, and had a good sequence in the 3^rd, nearly tipping a shot in and then drawing a penalty. He had a bad turnover on that PP, but it ended up not mattering. He ought to make the team out of the preseason.

-I never want to see Forsling–Seabrook behind Sharp–Schmaltz–Kane on purpose again. Every time it happened, it was a personal affront to proper theology and geometry.

Beer du jour: Zombie Dust

Line of the night: “Sharp looks absolutely fantastic.” –Steve “Stars in My Eyes” Konroyd.

Onward. . .

Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Jonathan Toews

By September 30, 2017 1966

I don’t really know how to start this player preview, so I would like to take a moment to commend Captain Woke on his rather thoughtful comments about the anthem protest controversies of late. As a white hockey player, it would’ve been pretty easy for him to him and haw his way through any questions about, spewing a bunch of cliche’s but not really saying anything. Instead he did a good job of putting the whole thing in perspective and putting the focus of his comments on emphasizing the need to bring the conversation back to where it should’ve been the whole damn time. So good job, Jonny. Let’s talk about your hockeying now.

2016-17 Stats

72 GP – 21 G – 37 A

52.4 CF% – 55.4 oZS% – 44.6 dZS%

20:09 Avg. TOI

A Look Back: Much of last year’s noise about our fearless leader revolved around his apparently controversial selections to a few teams/lists that some of Hockey Twitter’s favorite fun haters didn’t think he deserved. He was named to Team Canada for the World Cup of Hockey, and some dude who doesn’t understand anatomy said he didn’t deserve it. Then he was named to the NHL Top 100 list, which was entirely meaningless but of course that means Hockey Twitter took it entirely too seriously. They were mad that he made it over the likes of Evegeni Malkin, which isn’t necessarily a bad argument, but that still didn’t make it any less meaningless. Everyone was mad about these selections because they wanted to act like Toews sucks, meanwhile the man himself was quietly putting up yet another strong season while playing with a man who’s skin was literally melting off of him and a few guys that had never played top-six minutes in his life. Ho-Hum.

Toews was with Richard Panik nearly the whole season, Marian Hossa for most of it, and Nick Schmaltz for a good bit of the last half of the year. He spent a decent amount of time with John Hayden when he got signed late in the season, as well. Overall, his quality of linemates was pretty low, which really only makes his 58 points and rather strong possession stats all the more impressive. Because he missed 10 games, he was really on a 66 point pace, which is hardly elite but is no doubt top-line caliber. His 58 points also tied for 46th overall in the NHL, which is nothing to scoff at either.

And if you’ll put up with a bit of soap-boxing, the Toews hate from last year hardly made much sense to me. Toews became considered one of the league’s best players because he was the captain of and top center for three Cup winning teams. He might have reached a bit of an overrated status, but he basically earned the status. He’s only had one year where he didn’t pace out to at least 60 points, and is a damn near point per game player for his career, with a .86 PPG career rate. He’s also one of the best two-way players in the game, with a very strong defensive game. He’s basically been the same player for most of his career, and really had hardly declined recently as much as many would like you to believe. In reality, the league has seen such an influx of good young players that Toews just became another one of the league’s great-but-not-elite centers. He is good and not bad. Thanks.

A Look Ahead: Toews is going to get reunited with his old running mate Brandon Saad, which is perfect because Saad was, is, and forever will be just about the perfect linemate for Captain Environmentalist. Getting these two back together is basically the ideal scenario for the Blackhawks, and would be even if Marian Hossa hadn’t been eaten alive by his own skin. Even though Toews hasn’t quite fallen off the beaten path yet, he’s approaching 30 and is probably going to start the actual declining process within the next 3-4 years. Luckily, 4 years is exactly how long Saad is signed for, and having him around will help mitigate whatever decline Toews experiences. These two are probably going to be close to inseparable this season.

The other wing could be filled by any number of players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Richard Panik spend a good amount of time with the two of them, especially given Panik’s success with Toews last year. Patrick Sharp is another option, but that is definitely not ideal. DeBrincat would fit in well with them, though I’d still prefer he ends up with opposite Kane most of the time. Schmaltz could get another look there, but that should only happen if he can’t hang in the middle. It’s basically going to be yet another carousel, which is something we’ve become used to around these part. In terms of production, I think Toews could be a solid bet for another 60+point season if he ends up playing 75+ games.

Please don’t tell Hockey Twitter that I said nice things about Jonathan Toews. I would hate for them to have more things to be mad about.

Stats via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.

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Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Nick Schmaltz

By September 28, 2017 2105

After the Blackhawks tore my heart out by trading Teuvo, it did not take long for me to settle on Nick Schmaltz as special boy 2.0. There was a lot to get excited about with him, with his smooth speedy skating, his vision and passing ability, and his sneaky good but oft-underused wrist shot. Plus, his Twitter feed is extremely “college hockey player,” which can be both bad and good, but I get a kick out of it. He was fine in his rookie year, and at times I was damn near convinced he could be better than Teuvo (my heart is still torn). There were some kinks to work out, of course, but a lot to be encouraged by. Shall we?

2016-17 Stats

61 GP – 6 G – 22 A

49.4 CF% – 57.5 oZS% – 42.5 dZS%

13:16 Avg. TOI

A Look Back: Schmaltz was a bit slow starting last year, with just 5 points (1G, 4A) in 26 games before the New Year, which saw him get demoted to Rockford for a spell. He found his production again with the Hogs, potting 6 goals and 3 assists in 12 games before getting recalled and bringing that scoring to the NHL. He scored two points in his second game after being recalled, and finished with 23 points (5G, 18A) in his last 35 games. I’m inclined to believe that he is more the player that we saw in the second half of last year than the one we saw in the first half. That .65 PPG rate over the last 35 games paces out to about a 54 point total over 82 games, which would’ve been a phenomenal rookie year for him and had ranked him 4th among rookie scorers. Obviously that’s a shitload of hypotheticals, but the point I’m getting at is that the kid is good, and his rookie year much better than his raw numbers would show.

The shot share being below water is slightly disconcerting, especially with those zone starts, but most of that came while he was spending a good amount of time with Tyler Motte and Richard Panik in the 2016 half of 2016-17. Once he came back up from the A, he spent a good amount of time with either flanking Toews and Panik or centering Panarin and Kane, and he was pretty even for the last half of the year. So yeah, the slow start hurt him overall, but the last half of the season is a better indication of who he is, and his last half of the season was really strong.

A Look Ahead: The big question for Schmaltz this year is going to be figuring out what his position is. He has the skillset to be a scoring 2C at the NHL level, but the question is if he actually he can use that skillset to play like one. He also will probably need to prove he can win faceoffs, because at present Jonathan Toews is the only center on the team I feel confident in on the dot. Faceoffs aren’t the end-all-be-all for centermen, and if he can produce as a center without winning faceoffs it might be okay, but it’s always better to start play with possession of the puck.

Luckily, he has kept the momentum from the end of last year, and has come into the preseason playing well. He definitely has looked like he can hang in the NHL as a 2c, though the preseason is definitely not the time to come to any conclusions. As I and others on this blog have already said probably 10 times, the hope is that Schmaltz starts the year between ADB and Kane, or at least ends up there for a good look at some point. That’d be a line of three playmakers, and Kane and ADB both have the finishing ability to get Shcmaltz 40-50 assists. If those three are on a line together for a good stretch of the season, I can see 50 point years from both ADB and Schmaltz.

When he isn’t between those two, he’ll likely be the 3C with any collection of Hayden, Jurco, Hinostroza, Sharp, Panik, etc. If he’s there for most of the year, look for about 40+ points, but if he’s scoring at that sort of pace in that role, it’d be time to get him with Kane at the very least. I could also see him ending up on the wing at times with Toews and Saad. I don’t think that’d be the best usage of him, but it could happen, and it might be a fit. He could rack up the points with them, too. So there’s a lot of options, and a lot of hope for Schmaltzy. Let’s hope it goes as well as we are hoping.

All statistics via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.

Photo via Nick Scmaltz’s Twitter

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