Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and The Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Dylan Strome

By Adam Hess 1740 0

As a pretty damn good fantasy sports player (mostly self-proclaime, admittedly) I love a good “Buy Low, Sell High” move. If you’re a beliver in regression, and you should be, nothing can make you look quite as smart as offloading a player who is performing above what you expected and cashing in, especially if you can take advantage of someone looking to offload a player that is underwhelming compare to expectations. It appears Stan Bowman thinks the same way, because there is no better example of a successful Buy Low trade that ended up being a major home run than when Stan acquired Dylan Strome as the headliner return for Nick Schmaltz. Let’s get right to it:

Stats with Hawks

58 GP – 17 G – 34 A

46.18 CF% – 29.2 xGF % [5v5]

It Comes With A Free Frogurt

Despite being hailed as some kind of analytics hero, John Chayka gave up on Strome after a relatively small sample size of NHL experience. A huge part of it may have been that the Coyotes had lofty expectations for Strome after taking him third overall in the same draft as Connor McDavid, but Strome had appeared in just 48 NHL games over portions of three seasons (including this one) in the desert. The production was limited, but it’s not like he was playing with much impressive talent out there either. The Hawks ultimately decided that Schmaltz’ contract demands were just too damn high and that his ceiling of being a 2C might not even be long term, so they gambled on Strome and what is hopefully still a 1C ceiling, though an increasingly unlikely one he will hit.

Strome stepped into a much better situation in Chicago, being able to to slot with Alex DeBrincat, his longtime linemate from their time at OHL Erie, and Patrick Kane. And when the pressure was off his shoulders, Strome thrived. As you can see above, he had 51 points in 58 games, which is damn close to a point per game pace and projects out to a 72 point season if he played all 82. He also contributed well on the PP, with 3 goals and 9 assists coming on the extra man unit. I don’t think anyone ever doubted the vision and skill of Strome, and it’s not like it would be exactly a shock if he busted big time when you look at what his brother did, but the technical ability he had really came to the forefront when he arrived here.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

That all being said, there are still a few things to be a little concerned about with Strome that could lead to a potential production. falloff. Let’s start with those boldened CF% and xGF% numbers above, which are certainly somewhat alarming. The Hawks weren’t a great team in either category, but Strome still had a -3.2 CF%Rel and and a -3.26 xGF%Rel. I am sure that a huge part of that could be attributed to the defense, because we know the blue line was awful, but the center still bears some responsibility for that. To be that far below team rate is troubling.

I think something that could be playing a big role in that is the well documented skating issues that have followed him (and his entire family, really) throughout much of his career. He’s strong in his lower half, and had good enough size to stand his ground, but he isn’t fast by any stretch of the imagination, and that certainly plays against him in today’s NHL. It also makes him something of a misfit in Coach Cool Youth Pastor’s speed-obsessed man-t0-man system. I tend to believe that his skill will play way above this concern, but if there is one thing that is likely to drag him down and keep him from reaching his potential, it’s that.

Moving forward, Strome gives the Hawks a good amount of comfort in terms of the center depth. Even if he falls off slightly next year, he still could be a 60 point guy, which is perfect for a 2C, and if he steps up the production you could be seeing a full point per game pace and some 1C numbers. Either way, it looks like the Hawks won big with Strome.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and the Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Alex DeBrincat

By Adam Hess 2098 0

There isn’t much left to say about Alex DeBrincat that we haven’t already said a few hundred times in this space or the podcast. If you’ve missed it, I will catch you up – he’s really damn good. I never ever ever want to forget that the Blackhawks got him with the pick that they acquired from Montreal in exchange for Andrew Shaw, which is the most Montreal shit of all time. After a good rookie season in 2017-18, he followed it up with an elite 2018-19. Let’s dig in:

82 GP – 41 G – 35 A – 76 P

49.68 CF% – 46.47 xGF% (5v5)

It Comes With A Free Frogurt!

DeBrincat quickly cemented himself as the third best forward on the team this season, proving that he doesn’t need to be just Patrick Kane‘s running mate to produce. That’s not to say that he didn’t spend a good amount of time with Kane or didn’t play well when with Kane, but he also spent enough time playing at a high level away from ol’ Garbage Dick to prove that he’s capable of essentially carrying a line’s offense on his own. It certainly helped that he got paired up his OHL running mate back in Dylan Strome not long into the season, but I would argue that Top Cat did more to elevate Strome’s game than the other way around.

One of the most important non-linemate developments for Top Cat this season was his development as a power play assassin. Obviously the improved power play was a huge credit to Jeremy Colliton, and there are very few players who both helped cause that PP boom and benefited from it as Top Cat. He scored 13 of his goals on the PP, and added 11 assists on that unit as well. That equates to nearly one third of his goals, assists, and points coming when on the ice with the extra man, which will certainly help inflate the numbers, but is also just what offensive dynamos like DeBrincat are supposed to do on the powerplay. For context, Nikita Kucherov had 15 of his 41 goals, 33 of his 87 assists, and 48 of his 128 points on the PP, and all of those numbers are more than a third of the total production. So not that anyone was really doing so, but don’t let the heavy amount of PP production make you think his production numbers are any less impressive.

Top Cat is proving to be far and away Stan Bowman’s best draft pick and may even be a large reason that Stan still has a job. Despite being picked 39th overall in the the 2016 draft, Top Cat has the fourth most total points of any player picked in that draft, and has a better PPG at 0.78 than two of the players above him in Patrik Laine and Matthew Tkachuk, who both sit at 0.76. Granted, that’s pretty minimal difference, but it’s still better and I am a homer so we’re counting it as a win. Thanks.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

Yet again I find myself in a position where trying to find anything negative to say about Top Cat is a bit of a stretch. However, as I thought more about it I realized that there was one thing that kinda bothered me as I thought more about it, though I usually think of it as entertaining and fun. And that is his desire to throw his body around a bit and play a bit of a tough guy when the opportunity is presented.

It’s not that he is a stupid player when it happens – he only took 15 total PIM this year, which is more than fine. But he sometimes works his way into scrums and did get involved in one fight this year, which is one more than I want to see him have. I know hockey has “The Code” and everybody us out there wanting to stick up for their team, but Top Cat should leave that to his less technically gifted and more ham-brained teammates. It’s not a major issue, and usually in the moment I find it cool, but I quickly switch to dread over the thought of him getting some bullshit injury from off a cheapshot from some dipshit in a scrum. Let’s just avoid the possibility all together, okay?

Anyway, Top Cat is great and I love him. Pay the man.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and the Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Brendan Perlini

By Rose Rankin 1908 0

We made it through the defense, everyone. I know, it wasn’t pretty, but we did it. Now onto the forwards where the situation is…better? It’s better, right? Yes, it couldn’t be worse than the defense, so yes.

When Brendan Perlini and Dylan Strome came over in the Schmaltz trade, Perlini was actually the more known quantity and Strome was the question mark who hadn’t really realized his potential. That’s not how the narrative played out once they got here, though, as Strome found his groove and ended up being one of the Hawks’ best players (and a rare pleasant surprise in a season of mostly unpleasant ones). Perlini, on the other hand, was a bit of an enigma with the Hawks, having one burst of scoring and playing decently on the second line, sandwiched by benchings and periodic irrelevance. Let’s dig in:

(With the Hawks): 46 GP – 12 G – 3 A – 15 P

45.4 CF% – 40.4 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt!

Brendan Perlini had basically one really good week. OK, that’s not entirely fair, it was like two really good weeks. Between March 2nd and March 16th, he scored eight goals in seven games, including his first-ever hat trick against his erstwhile team, the Coyotes. And all of that was extremely fun and when you’re scoring, everything is great.

Aside from that stretch, Perlini was a serviceable linemate for Strome and Top Cat on the second line. As a line, their possession at 5-on-5 wasn’t exactly stellar, especially considering that these guys weren’t taking dungeon shifts (49.5 CF% with 68% oZS). Still, he was able to be in the right places at mostly the right times and proved he can play well when on a line with other good players…I know, what an accomplishment, right? But this is where we’re at, and we’ll take it. His shooting percentage jumped from a sickly 5% with Arizona in the first part of the season to 15.6 with the Hawks, showing that Perlini can be effective given the right tools to work with.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

Perlini seems like kind of a character, and to me that’s not a bad thing. The dull facelessness of hockey players, which is an all-too-common occurrence when the majority of your athlete population consists of rural Canadian white kids with a seventh-grade education, is irritating and tiresome. So I’m cool with players actually speaking their minds and having a personality, and so much the better when they have perspective on life and playing a professional sport. However, it seems that Perlini’s outlook may just be fucking with his give-a-shit meter, which hovered dangerously low at times this season for a guy still proving he’s a top-six player.

If you’re Patrick Kane and you’re being lazy and it leads to a dumb turnover, you’re going to get away with it. If you’re Brendan Perlini, clearly you won’t, as his benching and scratching shortly after his scoring streak showed. He was particularly lazy against the Sharks in March when the Hawks ostensibly were still shooting for a playoff spot, and Beto O’Colliton stapled his ass to the bench and then made him sit in the corner and think about what he did for a little while.

Now, was that totally deserved? Eh, maybe Colliton was making sort of an example of him, but again, you’re Brendan fucking Perlini, you better act like a try-hard. None of his numbers—possession, scoring, high-danger chances, nor that shooting percentage—were good enough to justify him not at least trying his damndest to win puck battles consistently. This team is also slow, so as a younger guy on the second line, he needs to bust his ass to push the play, and besides, Dylan Strome isn’t fast either so it’s really not asking all that much effort-wise.

Can I Go Now?

Perlini deserves another chance next season, and even if he doesn’t stay with Strome and DeBrincat he can probably be a decent bottom-sixer. Let’s say he ends up being “a guy”…at least he’s a 22-year-old guy and not Artem Anisimov, an older and even slower guy. He’ll also be a cheap signing, maybe around 1 mildo or so. And who knows, maybe he’ll do some peyote in the desert or something and have a revelation about working his ass off.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Everything Else

Game #81 – Stars 1, Hawks 6 – But When We Get to the End, Well He Wants to Start All Over Again

By Rose Rankin 1652 0

Don’t get me wrong, it’s more fun to watch the Hawks win than to watch them lose, but while these last two games may be some point of pride for the players, it’s in a way even more frustrating to see them beat better teams when it no longer matters. If they just got their ass kicked we could shrug and say yeah, this is where we’re at. Maybe it would help their draft position in some small way. But when they manage to do something like score five on a really hot goalie while only giving up one, it rubs salt in the wound remembering how they couldn’t do this in the key moments when it mattered. Fuck it all, let’s do the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

– Tonight was really a showcase in not-giving-a-shit, in many different ways. But how could that be, you wonder? The Hawks scored five goals…how could they not give a shit? Well, when the first period ended neither team had shots in double-digits. Both teams were playing, shall we say, leisurely, and even the refs didn’t give a shit enough to call a penalty shot on a clear take-down of Gustafsson on a break-away. You would think the Stars would have wanted to make at least a half-assed effort, but with a couple notable exceptions like John Klingberg robbing Alex DeBrincat (legally) on yet another breakaway, they really couldn’t be bothered.

– But yes, the Hawks did score five goals, so there’s a feather in our cap. Kane has a career-high in points and now 44 goals, Kahun scored off a great play by Brandon Saad in the second when Saad made a great move at the blue line and drove to the net where Kahun picked up the rebound, hell even Slater Koekkoek got his very first goal. Dylan Sikura must be pissed. Chris Kunitz also scored in what is most likely his last game as an NHL player, or if not his absolute last, the last one in a home rink. I’ve been bored and mildly annoyed with the fuss they’ve made for him even though yes, I get it, it’s the right thing to do. But I will say it was rather touching how genuinely excited his teammates were when his weird, fluky bounce was deemed to have just barely crossed the goal line. So good for him, now Chris Kunitz please go away.

– Can we all just take a moment to reflect on the scoring capability that’s on this team and yet the fact that they’re missing the playoffs again? I know we’ve all beaten this dead horse—I know you’ve thought about it and we’ve all marveled at how shitty a defense can be, how inexplicable some personnel decisions have been…all of it. But god damn it, games like this throw into harsh relief the absurdity of such talent and career years by Kane and Toews being wasted.

– And just to make things worse, Corey Crawford sustained a groin injury and left the game in the second period. Yeah, he’s got plenty of time to recover and a muscular injury is definitely less worrisome than another head injury. But this guy doesn’t need any more shit breaking or going awry, even if he’s got six months to heal. He most likely pulled it when moving left to right on a brilliant save in the first, but you could tell he was struggling when he got back up. So that’s just one more kick in the collective ass for this season and one more roadblock for someone who doesn’t deserve the hand he’s been dealt with this team lately.

– Speaking of goalie problems, Anton Khudobin came into this game with a .926 SV% and somehow managed to barf up an .813. Part of this was undoubtedly his defense not giving a rat’s ass—case in point, the first goal when Dowling kinda sorta attempted to block a shot and the rest of the Stars literally skated the opposite way of Kane and the puck, making it easier than it already is for him. Also, there was some bad luck for the Stars like when the puck deflected off Reverend Lovejoy’s skate and right onto Dylan Strome‘s stick, who happened to be all alone in front of the crease and just held onto it long enough to get Khudobin moving the wrong way. So it wasn’t that Khudobin just fucked up royally, but he still should have had at least a couple of these.

So that’s the end of things on Madison St. this season. They didn’t go down like bitches in front of the fans for the last time, which I suppose is a nice gesture. But it grinds my gears one more time that only when there’s no pressure could they rise to the occasion and play a well-rounded game. Pullega will be here tomorrow night to bring it all home for you. Onward and upward indeed.

Photo credit: NHL.com

Everything Else

Game #80 – Blues 3, Hawks 3 (Hawks Win Hackey-Sack) – It’s Still Real To Me, Dammit

By Adam Hess 1911 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Now that the Hawks games mean nothing, it’s hard to imagine getting worked up about these games in any way, and yet seeing them play their asses off and outplaying the Blues, I found myself sitting on my couch feeling like this guy. As a wrestling fan myself, I can empathize with feeling emotionally invested in something you know isn’t what it’s presented as, and tonight that was me, constantly battling this desire for the Hawks to not drop themselves farther down the draft lottery (which, they can’t climb much higher anyway, so that’s dumb too) and rooting like hell for them to beat the Blues. Some things are bigger than logic. Fuck you St. Louis. Let’s do this:

– Just about everyone at this here site was unavailable to some extent tonight, so I took up the sword but still missed the first period. When I got the game on with about 17 left in the second, I was pretty surprised by how competitive and hard the Hawks were playing in this game despite the games now being meaningless as I said before. It was clear from the quotes from Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane today that these guys are pissed off about missing the playoffs again, and they definitely channeled that into a desire to fuck over the Blues and their playoff seeding hopes. There were still plenty of gaffes in here on the Hawks end, and we will talk about a few of them, but seeing them respond was at least notable, I think. If only they had cared about this season a few months ago. Maybe they can actually carry this piss and vinegar into next year.

– It’s still hilarious to me that the Hawks got Dylan Strome for Nick Schmaltz. Not that Schmaltz wasn’t and isn’t a fine player (though now one that is WAY overpaid), but we definitely knew what he was by the time the Hawks sent him to the desert for Strome, who had barely gotten enough of a sniff of the NHL to have any conclusion that he couldn’t hit the ceiling that was once considered very high. And yeah, his shortcomings are there, and have been all year. But dammit if he doesn’t make up for it enough with the vision and hands, and the pass he made to Kane tonight on the third Hawks goal was just another example of that. The Hawks are definitely coming out on top of this one.

– Let’s talk about some gaffes. Firstly, Seabrook and Forsling were out there together again tonight. Not for long, but any shifts of those two together is too many. That’s the whole gaffe. Please stop that. EDIT– Forsling didn’t play tonight, I just stink at paying attention to who’s out there. I guess I’ve just been traumatized by 7-42 so often that I just expect it even when it isn’t happening.

– Now the elephant in the room, which at this point has now sat on and destroyed your couch, coffee table, recliner, and television: Duncan Keith could not give less of a fuck about playing hockey for Jeremy Colliton. Truthfully, I wish I could show the level of contempt and disinterest in my job that this guy does and still have the level of job security he does. We know the give a shit meter was already on zero, but he just about sent it negative tonight, particularly on the Blues third goal. To have little interest in playing well at this point can be understood, given that the Hawks are fucked, but to just have no intent to even feign effort at this point is almost impressive.

– And that brings us to an important thought – the Hawks might have to pick between the wife and the dog this summer. It’s clear that the wife (Keith, because he’s made our lives better for years and we never appreciate him enough) does not want the dog (Colliton, because he’s smelly and keeps shitting himself everywhere) around any longer. But as can happen, we may see this summer that the Hawks have overcommitted themselves to the dog. Perhaps these two will come to an agreement over the summer. Maybe an addition of a real defenseman that can partner with him will turn Keith’s give-a-shit meter back up. Maybe Colliton really will get motherfucked into becoming a good coach by this blog. Maybe neither happen and we’re stuck in a bad marriage with a stupid dog (I don’t hate dogs, I love them, but this one is stupid) and we will be miserable again for another year. Who knows! Eat at Arby’s.

– We almost made it, folks. Two more.

Everything Else

Game #79 – Jets 3, Hawks 3 (Jets win thumb war): Whatever

By Sam Fels 1747 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

I can’t remember the last time I was left with such a feeling of “meh” after a game. I guess it’s good the Hawks showed some gumption and fight to tie it late, and keep their braindead playoff hopes alive. If that’s what they were playing for. But I mean, the Jets really couldn’t be bothered, other than their fourth line. So it doesn’t really mean much. I can’t get emotional either way about overtime results. They’re a coin-flip. I was surprised to find out a 12th extra-time loss for the Hawks doesn’t lead the league. They’ve also won nine in overtime, so basically they’re getting to 50-50 that you would think is par for the course. I guess it means they aren’t good enough to win games in regulation but aren’t bad enough to get beat in regulation in those close games. But again, the overwhelming feeling is, “whatever.”

Anyway, let’s run through it.

The Two Obs

-Dylan Strome’s three-point game will take the headlines, which is good. It doesn’t mean he’s automatic, but he’s got sense you can’t teach and his second goal showed that, the ability to ghost into space and find just enough time to get a good shot off. And he’s got one. 54 points is more than Schmaltz ever put up. That’s nice. That said, Stome’s line was sporting a sub-30% Corsi for the night, which is U-G-L-Y. That’s what’s going to have to change starting next year, because he can’t start every shift in the offensive zone. At this rate he’ll have to.

-You can easily see the problem with the Jets. When you get into their zone they either can’t be bothered, their defense is slow in transition, and you never know when Byfuglien and Myers are going to get caught up the ice and leave someone exposed. They have the forward depth to cover it for a while, but the warts they and the Preds are showing means it will not be a surprise if the Stars or Blues find their way out of the division come May.

-Brent Seabrook, 14 minutes. The third straight game he’s been at 15 minutes or below. They see what we see.

-The only line above water for the night in possession was the Saad-Anisimov-Sikura line, which seems to be the case most nights.

-Every goddamn broadcast when John Hayden belches his way into the lineup contains some segment about how he hasn’t really gotten a chance or he should get a chance. He’s gotten his chance, and he sucks. The only shift he was noticeable was just because he delivered three hits that were all at least three seconds late and mattered not a jot. He can’t do anything, and his physical presence doesn’t do anyone any good because it doesn’t disrupt anything. It’s all for show, just to demonstrate to a coach how hard he’s playing. I hope he enjoys his time with Minnesota’s AHL team in Iowa next year. Or Europe.

-One of my big complaints about Jeremy Colliton is the lack of adjustment to his “system.” They keep telling us that he needs a training camp to really install it, which is a bunch of ripe shite but fine, but that means what you’re playing now should be tweaked to at least look more like what they used to do. Scheifele’s non-goal was an example, as the Hawks have to chase their man all over the zone, but they can’t keep up, and by the time Scheifele deposits the puck in the net Seabrook is out beyond the circles, Toews is nowhere, and everyone’s scrambling. They don’t have the speed to chase and harass. The Hawks should have been playing softer and leaving things to the outside to the outside months ago. When they get in serious trouble is when they’re trying to pressure outside or out high and get beat, and they will because they just don’t have enough speed. Now people don’t know whether to switch/commit and who to take when someone does. If they’d just sink into the middle of their zone and try and block shots, “Torts it” if you will, they probably would have surrendered less. Instead were stuck with this happy horseshit. And we will be next year too.

-They didn’t give up a power play goal. That’s something.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Game #77 – Hawks vs. Sharks Preview/PTA Meeting: What’s Your Definition Of Bad?

By Sam Fels 1555 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 33-33-10   Sharks 43-24-9

PUCK DROP: 9:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

ALSO FAKING THEIR VOICE LIKE ELIZABETH HOLMES: Fear The Fin

If you were to ask both fanbases, both would tell you their team is a mess, a disaster, an embarrassment. One has lost six in a row, and one has lost four of its last five. Neither is living up to the expectations the front offices themselves set for their respective team. But really, only one of these teams is a true mess.

The Sharks are the ones who have lost six in a row. They’ve lost touch with the Flames at the top of the division, and the Bay Area faithful are already chewing their nails down to the quick over a first-round matchup with the Knights (who happened to paste the Sharks a few games ago, at least on the scoreboard but as analytics have told us that doesn’t count). Erik Karlsson won’t play until the playoffs, and it’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% then. And rushing him back is what got them in this predicament in the first place. Joe Pavelski has missed the last four games, isn’t a sure bet for tonight, and nagging injuries with 10 days to go to your best forward who happens to be 34 doesn’t set anyone’s nerves at ease.

What’s really causing the angina-kicks in San Jose is that the Sharks can’t get a damn save anywhere. Both Martin Jones and Aaron Dell have gone Little-League-Outfielder-With-The-Glove-On-His-Head in the crease, and the Sharks have the worst SV% at even-strength in the league. Which makes their 95 points and glittering metrics something of a wow, and also exemplifies how good this team really is. If they were getting league average goaltending, they’d probably be able to see where the Lightning are. Most nights, the Sharks demolish teams, and then watch Jones or Dell either make it much harder than it should be or ruin the work altogether. Even in this six-game punt, the Sharks have carried a 56+% share in every game and the same in scoring chances save one.

So yeah, the Sharks bet that Martin Jones would figure it out as the spring invaded seems a shaky one right now (and Jones has the playoff pedigree where you could see the logic). And the Sharks have more riding on these playoffs than just about anyone. Karlsson’s a free agent. Thornton’s a free agent and might retire. Pavelski is a free agent. There’s a heavy now-or-never feel to this.

As for the Hawks…who knows? The season is officially toast now. When you’re tired with the Oilers with six to go, you’re toast. Them’s the rules. So what do you watch for now? I don’t know. There’s nothing that Dylan Strome or Brendan Perlini or the like are going to do in the last six games that’s going to make you feel any differently about them come next year. You already know what the defense is. Maybe Crawford will get a day off now, or the chance to close out the season strongly.

So I guess the thing to watch is the emotional response. Do the Hawks chuck it and mail in the last six games? Do they still try and play well and be professional about it? It might give you some indication about what the players as a whole think of Coach Cool Youth Pastor. If this team isn’t going all out, then the results for these last games could be ugly/hilarious/high art. And also make for a very curious tone heading into camp next year. Once you chuck it on a coach, it’s nearly impossible to get it back. Recall that the Hawks showed some spikiness at the very end of last year for Q.

There’s no doubt the Sharks would be looking at this as their get-well night. They’ve pulverized the Hawks twice already, and they never looked like they had to get out of second gear to do so. And they probably want to get right, because their next two are Calgary and Vegas, and they at least need to throw down a marker for themselves in those. Otherwise, if they somehow puke this one tonight, they could be looking at eight or nine games biffed in a row, and that’s not how you want to enter the last week and playoffs.

I’m still high on the Sharks, but it’s more out of hope than expectation now. If Pavelski and/or Karlsson are iffy, and the goalies are the goalies, it’s quite a challenge. You would expect the antenna will be up for San Jose tonight. That’s probably very bad news for a questionably interested Hawks team.

 

 

 

Game #77 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

The Colliton Effect Revisited

By Sam Fels 1823 0

I wouldn’t tell you I know what the rest of this season is worth or going to be. The one thing I can say for sure is that it’s a study, not a referendum, of Jeremy Colliton. Unless the Hawks go 0-12-1 and Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews attempt to give him a Shatter Machine in his office, he’s going to be the coach going forward. So what we want to see is that his methods and tactics are having an effect, and the team and players are getting better. There needs to be a base camp for next year, let’s say.

So let’s revisit where the Hawks are under Colliton from various points. We did this just about a month ago, and what we found was that though the Hawks record was much improved, the process was still rotten. Is the process getting any better? Um…maybe?

Ok, so we’ll try and do this from three points on the calendar. The first is since Colliton took over on November 8th:

Corsi-percentage: 48.3 (23rd)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 46.0 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 42.8 (Dead Ass Last)

The last time we tried this, we looked from December 17th, which is when the Hawks started their first run of 12-6-4 to get back into it all. So from December 17th, after Colliton had been on the job for a month, until now:

Corsi Percentage: 47.6 (26th)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 45.0 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 41.6 (Dead Ass Last)

Not great, Bob! Ok, so today, let’s also add just the last month:

Corsi Percentage: 50.9 (13th)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 46.5 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 45.0 (27th)

We’re not last! We’re not last!

If you want to believe, and you shouldn’t be blamed if you do because it’s better, healthier, and happier to think your coach knows what he’s doing, then the last month has seen an uptick in the Hawks percentages, even if they’re not on the positive side of the ledger in the types of chances they get. They are in overall attempts, which is at least something of a foothold.

Now clearly, this isn’t very scientific, and when you’re looking at a snippet of the schedule, the quality of that snippet plays a major role. In that span of the last month, the only “real” teams the Hawks have played are the Bruins, Sharks, the Jackets debatably, maybe the Avs, maybe the Stars. They were clocked by the Bruins and Sharks, while played the Avs and Stars basically even. And really, even with the Stars and Avs is probably where they “should” be, and may yet end up. Still, at this point we’ll take any uptick we can find, and hope that it continues through the last three weeks of the season here.

That said, after the Leafs tomorrow night, the rest of the Hawks schedule is filled with teams on the fringes of the playoff race, where they probably “should” be, aside from one date with the Sharks again. That is until the season closes with three games against actually good teams, and you can easily see a scenario where they spend the next two weeks playing themselves right onto the cusp of the last spot, and then get flambeed by the Jets, Blues, and Preds.

But that’s neither here nor there. Another factor we can look at with Colliton, seeing as how he’ll be given more and more young players as we go forward, is to see improvement from anyone. The obvious candidate is Erik Gustafsson, who is 9th in scoring among d-men which is something we’re just never going to get used to. Unlike Q, you could argue that Colliton has simply forgiven Gus for his various and numerous defensive drownings, and taken the points and fireworks. I’ll let you have it if you want.

Brendan Perlini is going to have to have more than a good week before we chalk that up as a success story. Dylan Strome is a name some would bring up, but that could be a result of just getting to play with better talent than he ever did in Arizona (there is no Alex DeBrincat in Glendale). Henri Jokiharju is in Rockford. Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling have proven to be very much Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling, and will go down as a “miss.” Dominik Kahun and Drake Caggiula haven’t proven to be much more than “guys.” They get an incomplete at best.

So the jury is anything but in no matter the category. This is a big three weeks for the Hawks, and it’s a bigger three weeks for their coach. He’s clearly still got some veterans to convince, and he can do that by watching the Hawks improve through this last stretch when the games are most tense. To be fair to him, the Hawks had two big games at the end of last month, and they weren’t….horrible. But they lost. If they streak their way into another chance at games like that somewhere along here, they’re going to have to be better.

Otherwise, he and the Hawks will basically be starting all back over in September.

Everything Else

Atop the Sugar Pile – Send in the Clowns

By Rose Rankin 1688 0

Well, it’s been quite a week, hasn’t it? After shitting the bed the moment there seemed to be a chance of making the playoffs, the Hawks followed that up with barely eking out a win against the putrid Ducks, having a full-body dry heave against the even-more-putrid Kings, and then getting swatted aside like an annoying bug by the legitimately good Sharks. Let’s attempt to find any rays of hope, or at least let’s hurl obscenities at the worst offenders. Shall we?

The Dizzying Highs

Dylan Strome: There have been few bright spots this year but the growth of Dylan Strome into a true 2C is one of them. And with the way things are going with Jonathan Toews‘ defensive game, he may be our 1C before too long. This week Strome had a point per game and has four points in his last five. He scored last night in San Jose, giving the appearance of keeping the Hawks in the game. His awareness and patience during a long change in the second on Saturday led to Brendan Perlini‘s first goal, again giving a semblance of the Hawks having a chance in that game. Granted, being on a line with Alex DeBrincat certainly helps a guy, but Strome deserves credit—his shooting percentage is 18.9, second only to Top Cat’s. His possession at evens is a weak 45.6 CF%, so that’s an issue, but in this dark time that is the 2018-19 Blackhawks, right now this is the best we can do.

The Terrifying Lows

The whole damn defense. Where do I even begin? That’s a legit question—please help. OK here goes. Duncan Keith was terrible this week, even more than what we’ve come to see as the new normal. In addition to having clearly zero fucks left to give on the ice, he also managed to call out his coach off the ice and look like a whiny jerk. Which I don’t believe, or don’t want to believe that he is, but this isn’t helping. Seabrook has been his typical enchilada-filled self. Forsling and Koekkoek have been mostly lost, and aside from Erik Gustafsson scoring 48 points on the season (what??) there isn’t a silver lining to be found. OK, Connor Murphy has been decent but he’s been saddled with quadruple-A player Carl Dahlstrom or one of the other helpless fools, so he’s only able to do so much.

To wit, this team gave up 14 goals in three games, and nine of those goals were scored by two of the teams ostensibly even worse than the Hawks. Yes, goaltending is to blame here too but it wouldn’t get to that point if the defense wasn’t so awful. The only defensemen not underwater in possession are Slater Koekkoek (53.4 CF%, again, what??) and Gus (50.5 CF%). Every other member of the blue line is under 50. Oh wait, you know who’s leading the defense and the entire team in possession? Henri Jokiharju.

The Creamy Middles

Brendan Perlini. He scored two goals this weekend. This is the last we’ll ever speak of him.

Alex DeBrincat. His reliability and production, on the power play or otherwise, are better than just the middle, I know that. But that predictability is exactly why two goals against the Ducks and an assist last night are just middling for Top Cat, who again is one of the reasons to not light yourself on fire when watching this team.

 

Everything Else

Game #66 – Hawks 2, Sharks 5: This Is The Best We Can Do, Folks

By Sam Fels 1910 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

The one bonus of covering a bad team is that you rarely run out of material. But we’ve come to a point where I’ve run out of things to say. I’ll you need to know about this Hawks team is that they really did try tonight. They fought back twice against a Cup contender. And the Sharks barely got out of second gear, never looked truly troubled, and seemed always assured they would run out easy victors, And they did. They turned it on for like eight minutes, got the two goals they needed, and that was that.

So now that the Hawks have in fact sought and found their own water level, the question is what to do with the rest of the year. The truly progressive team, the one that sees things as they are (and no NHL team has ever done this before so they won’t either) would basically start scratching Toews, Keith, Seabrook and even DeBrincat and Strome semi-regularly for the last 16 games. You’ll never be able to scratch Kane when he’s competing for a Hart Trophy, unless you want a full-out mutiny on your hands.

But right now you’re on pace to draft 7th, which doesn’t do you a whole lot of good for next year at least. You already know you have something with Strome and Top Cat, and there’s no one else to develop. So why bother?

But they won’t do that, so let’s get through the rest of it…

The Two Obs

-I guess maybe it says something that after all his vets went to the zoo on him yesterday in LA, Coach Cool Youth Pastor saw them actually try tonight. Then again, knowing they were playing the Sharks, they probably were just afraid of getting totally embarrassed again like San Jose did here at the United Center. There are far more questions about the coach than answers.

-Brandon Saad was replaced on Daydream Nation’s wing by Chris Kunitz, and he played the game like he was sulking over it. And honestly, I don’t blame him. He didn’t do anything wrong yesterday, and watched his spot given to a corpse. And then Kunitz contributed to the back-breaking goal by forcing a pass on an odd-man break that was somehow both behind Toews and between his legs. They told you they thought this was a playoff team.

-Brendan Perlini was tried with The Otter Boys, and they actually had one of their rare plus-possession games. I guess this is worth more of a look, but Perlini is starting to give off serious Jack Skille waves in that he’s fast and can shoot and can do literally nothing else.

-After he couldn’t locate a fuck to give with FBI support yesterday and then airing out his coach in the press, Duncan Keith got completely turned into cat vomit for the Sharks’ first goal. It’s not the best look. He also had a 34% Corsi tonight.

Keith’s number will get retired. And I’ll cut him as much slack as possible, But you can’t stand in defiance of your team and coach publicly when you’re playing as badly as this. He needs to pick a lane, which is something he hasn’t been able to do all season.

-A questions we’ll need to ask the rest of the season is who exactly Colliton has made better. The first answer will be Strome, but you could easily point to playing with greater talent for the main reason for his signs of life. The defense is worse, and whatever forward doesn’t get to share time with Kane either at evens or on the power play has at best stalled out.

-Oh, and the Hawks took a reaching, neutral zone penalty on Michael Haley, because that’s someone you really have to stop steaming into your zone. That’s recognition at its highest.

-Brent Seabrook and Gustav Forsling ended up with 60%+ possession marks. But Seabs topped that off with a no-look, behind the back pass to no one leading to the empty-netter. Bottomless Pistol Pete out here, motherfuckers.

-Back when I used to do these after too much imbibing I didn’t have to switch glasses. This is growing up.

Fuck the rest of it. Onwards…