Everything Else

Trying To Assess Connor Murphy

By Sam Fels 2208 0

I’ll admit we’ve done something of a bridge-pose, if not an outright wheel, trying to justify our Connor Murphy affection. We didn’t think trading Niklas Hjalmarsson before he became…well, Brent Seabrook, was a bad idea. It’s actually the kind of thing the Hawks probably should have done more of. Except the only other time they did it, giving up on Brandon Saad the first time, only netted them Artem Anisimov. But just because you didn’t execute a good idea properly doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good idea. And Hjalmarsson got them Murphy, and let’s just say that he has yet to convince all Hawks fans it was worth it. It also doesn’t help that Hammer continues to play well in Arizona, as you’ll soon see.

While I remain a metrics-heavy analyst, one of my main problems is that no one, as far as I can tell, has weighted the rates or possession-numbers to account for where a shift starts and whom against. We have it adjusted for score of the game, time, and venue, but not for the individual shifts. So one person’s 52% share might be awfully different than another’s. For example, Duncan Keith‘s metrics, a 50.1 CF% aren’t horribly out of line with what he used to put up, but 60% of his shifts starting in the offensive zone is. So you have to account for that.

So with Murphy, we have some unique circumstances. First off, only Patrik Nemeth of the Avalanche starts less shifts in the offensive zone than Murphy does, at 27%. That accounts for shifts that start on faceoffs and on-the-fly. If you go by simply faceoffs, Murphy has the fifth-lowest percentage in the offensive zone. So either way it’s obvious to see he’s being buried in the dungeon by place on the ice when he gets on the ice. .

The names around him are the aforementioned Nemeth, Hjalmarsson, his partner Dahlstrom, Andy Greene, Roman Polak, Ben Lovejoy (and those two names are going to make you shudder so hard your chiropractor will be rubbing his/her hands), Damon Severson, Alex Edler, Andrew MacDonald. Among those bottom-10, as it were, Murphy’s 45.1 CF% is about average. The outliers are, of course, Hjalmarsson and Andrew MacDonald (what?). So he’s not standout but he’s not dragging behind.

Of course, on this list, that doesn’t cover it. Most all of these guys are third-pairing players not playing the competition that Murphy is. Greene and Severson are an exception, and so is Hjalmarsson. However, Hammer is paired with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, whereas Murphy gets Dahlstrom and his 80s hair. That was cool for like 10 games. It has not been lately, and very much so.

On the scoring-chance side, it’s a little less encouraging. On that list of those who are buried, Murphy’s 45.3% mark is on the lower side, though hardly the lowest. Again, Hjalmarsson stands out at above water and significantly so, as does Nemeth’s 52%. Though one wonders in a Dahlstrom-Murphy pairing that’s either been mostly behind a defensively declining Toews or David Kampf, who exactly is going to create chances. But here we are.

It’s hard to get a read on, and Murphy hasn’t been bad, but it’s hard to conclude he hasn’t been behind his counterpart in that trade that forever broke the Quenneville-Bowman relationship. Last year, Murphy’s metrics were actually really good with Brent Seabrook, other-worldy with Michal Kempny (fucking fuckin’ fuck!), and pretty good with Erik Gustafsson as well. In each case, he was getting at least double the offensive-zone starts than he is this year, though, and in two of those examples he was partnered with at least an offensively capable/mobile partner. I’m not convinced Dahlstrom is either. But we also know it did not go so well with Duncan Keith, where the competition kicked up. But was that Murphy or Keith? It seems impossible to tell.

It would behoove the Hawks to get Murphy a real partner for the rest of the year, and one who has hope of getting the Hawks up the ice at any point. Jokiharju is the first name that comes to mind, but would you be doing him any favors to almost never start him in the offensive zone? Big ask. Gustafsson is not equipped to handle that zone-start task or the competition. And that’s basically it. And until Murphy gets someone like that as a partner, it’s going to be hard to tell what the Hawks have here.

Everything Else

Game #47 – Dreams Turn to Nightmares, Heaven Turns to Hell, Burned Out Confusion, Nothing More to Tell – Vegas 3, Hawks 3 (Vegas Wins Who Can Slap the Business Card Loudest Contest)

By John Pullega 1892 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

Vegas pulls a Kano on the Hawks, throwing knives and ripping hearts out. It’s gonna be a long, cold winter.  To the bullets.

– Certainly not one for Carl Dahlstrom’s highlight reel. You can easily blame him for all of Vegas’s last three goals, including the one where Shea Theodore pissed his entire name, including his fucking Confirmation name, in Dahlstrom’s snow. On Vegas’s goal at the end of the second, Dahlstrom confusingly backed off of Carpenter coming down the boards, giving Carpenter just enough room past the near-side dot to snipe the gloveside corner. On the game-tying goal, Dahlstrom was on the completely wrong side, forcing Murphy to try to over everything. Then on the OT goal, Dahlstrom was either flatfooted for simply too slow to keep up with Theodore, and the puck went off Dahlstrom’s stick through Delia’s five hole.

Dahlstrom and Murphy haven’t looked great together lately, and the reason is clear: Dahlstrom had his flash in the pan, and now he’s going back to the milquetoast Jared Dunn lookalike we always knew and were indifferent toward.

– On the plus side, Connor Murphy did look good for most of the game. Aside from a weak holding call in the second, he gummed up several chances from Vegas, especially in the third. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him line up next to Davidson or Koekkoek on Monday.

– Collin Delia once again did the best he could with what he was given. Vegas’s first goal is partially on him though. After stopping Nate Schmidt’s shot from the blue line, Delia failed to cover the puck even though he had his glove hovering over it like someone who has “Hooters photo op” circled on his calendar. Combined with Jokiharju getting pushed aside like the 19-year-old he is by Alex Tuch, it gave Tuch all the time he needed to post his 16th of the year. Hard to be mad about his performance otherwise.

– As Fels keeps saying, the Brain Trust and Coach Cool Youth Pastor are eventually going to have to tell Seabrook “It’s not us, it’s you.” Putting Jokiharju on his off side to accommodate Porkins isn’t going to help Harju’s development in any way, shape, or form, and it should not be considered again after tonight. Jokiharju had a 36+ CF% next to Seabrook and was often overmatched in his own zone. Asking him to cover for Fatso while on his off side is simply asking too much. If they’re going to fluff Seabrook for everything he’s done for them in the past, they should do it with someone like Murphy, who’s proven he’s up to the task. Having Harju with Seabrook is doing to destroy his development.

– On the plus side, Alex DeBrincat is now the one doing the fucking. His game-opening goal was an absolute masterpiece, and if you don’t believe me, just look:

He managed to tip Kahun’s shot out of mid-air and disrupt Flower’s timing on the stick sweep, then reached out as far as his 5’6” frame would let him and backhanded the puck in. You could hang that in the Louvre and it wouldn’t be out of place.

Then, he and Garbage Dick did what they’ve been doing on the power play. Kane drew everyone to him, leaving DeBrincat so embarrassingly open that Foley made the call before the shot came off his stick. The next time someone says RE-SIGN PANARIN, after you’re finished telling them to fuck off, show them the clip of that goal and ask “Why?” The Hawks have a younger, cheaper, more defensively responsible version of Panarin on the team right this second. As I am wont to say, thank fuck he’s 5’6”.

– Even though Kane’s original goal got called off because of Saad’s offside, there was a lot to like about everything that led up to that. First, Gustafsson made a crisp pass to Saad at the Hawks blue line, and then Saad kicked it out to Kane. Kane made just one too many hesitation moves for Saad to stay onside, which is something that wouldn’t happen if, you know, Saad were playing next to Kane regularly instead of the gigantic, useless obelisk that is Artem Anisimov. There was a nice fluidity to everything outside of the offside, and it’s something Colliton should look into.

– Because seriously, Artem Anisimov sucks. I challenge anyone to show me what he brings to this Blackhawks squad aside from the mental vision of a comically and barbarically large dick swinging like the pendulum of a clock that makes too much noise and can’t keep time. He makes plate tectonics look like something a premature ejaculator would critique as too fast. He took a hooking penalty late in the first, forcing the Hawks’s completely horseshit penalty kill to do what it has proven time and again it can’t do (they did kill the penalty, so hooray?). He contributed absolutely nothing. Dylan Strome does all the things he’s supposed to do, except better and for less money. If you can trade Manning and Rutta, you can trade Anisimov.

– If Erik Gustafsson ever decides to even feign defensive responsibility, he can be something special. His assist on Kane’s goal gave him an assist in eight straight games, something that hasn’t been done since Keith in 2013. He’s catching up to Chelios and Pilote in that little stat race, and while no one will ever mistake him for Chelios or Pilote, there is something there.

– Colliton opted to go with Kruger over Strome in the last seven minutes. Colliton is obviously a bright dude, but sometimes, you can’t help but wonder how much smarter he’d look if he’d stop trying to show us how big his galaxy brain is. You can argue that Strome had a team worst 25 CF%, but no one on the Hawks managed to crack 44% on the night. In that context, you can’t tell me Kruger centering Kane over Strome is a good idea.

The Hawks would have been lucky to win this one because they were so thoroughly thrashed throughout the night. But hey, it wouldn’t be Vegas if they let you come out with your shoes.

Onward.

Booze du Jour: Tin Cup & High Life: The Christmas gifts that keep on giving.

Line of the Night: “Was that John Scott?” – Eddie O., because John Scott is a gigantic joke whose presence you have to question at all times.

Everything Else

Game #39 – I’m a Fool for I Believed Your Lies, but Now I’ve Seen Through Your Disguise – Panthers 6, Hawks 3

By John Pullega 1951 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

One of the worst shows I have ever seen live was Beirut at the Aragon in, like, 2011–12. I showed up for the first half hour, got bored, and left. It’s no wonder this game felt so familiar, because that’s the exact tack the Hawks took with this eminently winnable game tonight. After a hot start, the Hawks got buried by their own incompetence, which is just another way of saying business as usual. Let’s do this quickly: We’ve all got Feats of Strength to finish, I’m sure.

– Coming into this game on a three-game winning streak and fresh off Collin Delia’s stoning of the most dangerous line in hockey, Jeremy Colliton decided to ride the Cam Ward wave. This is some true Galaxy Brain shit. On the one hand, complaining about Ward getting the start tonight probably has a bit of looking a gift horse in the mouth to it. Coming into this game, he had a .949 SV%. On the other, those two games came against a floundering and hurt Preds and an even more hurt Dallas team. Also, in case Ward spasming a couple good games had made you forget, Cam Ward is really a used-car-lot wavy-arm guy who moonlights as a goaltender.

Ward should have been pulled after the first goal. For reasons that can only be deciphered by true Brain Geniouses, Cam Ward came out to challenge Hawryluk after Hawryluk overpowered Dahlstrom/Dahlstrom lost his edge. Except after getting about halfway out, Ward flinched and tried to go back, leaving Hawryluk—a guy who has never scored an NHL goal—a yawning net to shoot at. I don’t have adequate words to describe what a shitshow this goal was because there’s no excuse for a 1,000-year veteran to do what Ward did. You wouldn’t see that in a fucking beer league—as Scott Foster once showed us—and yet, here we are.

Then, as if to retroactively adjust to completely losing his ass and crease on the first goal, Cam Ward turtled into the net on Hawryluk’s second goal. Huberdeau’s stretch pass between Keith and Gustafsson was art, and those two probably share part of the blame, but at no point did Ward look like an NHL goaltender on this attempt.

The third goal was more on Forsling than anyone—as Forsling totally froze as Hoffman stepped up after Toews pressured Weegar up top, giving Hoffman too much time to pick his spot, which happened to be the back of the net via Forsling’s groin—but that fourth goal was the result of a rebound that would have made Dennis Rodman blush. And the fifth goal, because fifth goals are things we talk about when Cam Ward starts, was a simple short-side snipe that an NHL-caliber goalie probably puts some leather on. But alas, Cam Ward is not an NHL-caliber goalie.

Jeremy Colliton has done a lot right lately. Starting Cam Ward tonight is decidedly not one of them. Fucking ride Delia until he gives you a reason not to. Starting Cam Ward doesn’t do anything for this team.

– Dylan Strome is officially good. You can mark it down. His assist on Our Large Irish Son’s first goal of the year was a clinic in vision and patience. After stealing the puck at the offensive blue line, Strome set up behind the net off a Perlini pass, waiting for help. Murphy crashed, Strome fed him, and the rest is history. But the patience and nerve Strome showed behind the net was otherworldly. Strome had another steal around the same spot in the second, which led to two high-quality chances from Kane. He capped his night off with a goal off a Kane pass. Strome was the most impressive forward of the night, and it looks like the Hawks really have their #2 center in him.

– Our Sweet Boy Connor Murphy also had himself a night. You saw the goal he scored, which was a testament to his positioning and sneaky good wrister. Murphy played a big role in the Hawks’s third goal, leading the rush off a good Forsling outlet pass and grabbing the secondary assist on Strome’s goal. He also led the Hawks in even-strength TOI, led all Hawks D-men with a 51+ CF% at 5v5, and did it mostly against the Huberdeau–Barkov–Dadonov line. On top of all that, Murphy looked much more comfortable with the puck in his exits, which was a weak point in his game last year. Between Strome and Murphy, there’s a lot to hope for regarding the future.

– Here’s your gamely “Alex DeBrincat is not a third liner” alert. His goal was a bit flukey, as he was trying to pass to Kane through the slot and had the good fortune of sweeping in a pinballing puck, but a goal’s a goal. As much as we’d like to see him flip with Anisimov, he’s still making shit work where he’s at.

– Regardless of what Colliton ends up being, it looks like he might go down as the guy who fixed the power play. The top unit of Gus at QB; Strome in front; and Top Cat, Toews, Kane across has looked legitimately dangerous when it’s out there and Gus and Kane can be bothered to give a shit. It scored again due to Toews’s roving and retrieval and the movement Kane, Gus, and Top Cat show up top. It’s probably way too early to pronounce the PP truly fixed, but when’s the last time you looked forward to the PP?

– Just a quick reminder that Cam Ward sucks and we could have had Delia in net, who likely stops at least three of the five Ward allowed tonight.

– Dylan Sikura and Brendan Perlini led all Hawks in CF% tonight, with shares above 70. Perlini is going to be frustrating, as he’s big, fast, and has no finish, as evidenced again tonight with his janking of a shot toward a wide-open net early in the Hawks’s first PP. Sikura’s no savior, but he’s good on the third line.

– Carl Dahlstrom ended up in Coach Cool Youth Pastor’s doghouse tonight, spending the latter part of the game with Seabrook. You can maybe partially blame him for the first goal. But other than that, I’m not sure what else he did noticeably poorly. He and Murphy didn’t have the best game together, as Murphy’s peripherals spiked away from Dahlstrom, but I’m not sure what triggered Colliton to switch them up.

– Saad and Toews looked good in the first, then got completely horsed for the rest of the game. Erik Gustafsson also flashed evidence that he has a Give-a-Shit meter, and it was hovering around zero for the last two periods.  You can trace much of the loss to these facts, along with the fact that Cam Ward blows.

It wasn’t all bad, but it certainly wasn’t good. The Hawks will get a few days off before welcoming the Minnesota Mild to the UC on Thursday. Until then, stay toasty and toasted. Merry Whatever You Celebrate.

Beer du Jour: Miller High Life and Death Wish Coffee

Line of the Night: “It’s tough waking up and seeing how ugly I am now. I knew I didn’t have the looks before, but this doesn’t help.” –Connor Murphy explaining to Steve Konroyd how he felt after the Tyler Pitlick elbow.

Everything Else

Game #37 – You Say It’s Enough, in Fact It’s Too Much, Every Time I Wanna Get Down – Hawks 5, Stars 2

By John Pullega 2046 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

Don’t look now, but the Hawks have put together two quality games. It sure is nice to watch the Hawks plunge the knife every once in a while. Let’s do the bullets.

– This may have been the best game Erik Gustafsson has played as a Blackhawk. He started 15 seconds in, keeping a puck that squeaked by Ward from farting across the goal line. That’s the kind of goal that’s been typical of the Hawks of late (and Ward when he’s gotten his chances in the crease), so having Gustafsson tidy it up early was absolutely necessary.

From there, Gustafsson was a force, plowing home a PP goal, setting up Kane’s empty-net backbreaker with a stretch pass from his own zone, and looking downright responsible in his own end. Though his CF% was 44+, when adjusting for score and venue, it sat just north of 50%. Given that he and Keith were on the ice for 24 minutes apiece and played primarily against the Klingberg–Benn–Seguin trifecta, you’ll take that every day. If this is the kind of game Gustafsson can play with any regularity, he could be a second-pairing guy with fringe first-pairing potential. There’s still a long way to go, but you love to see games like this. The offensive potential is there, and it throbs when it wants to.

– Let’s talk about that PP goal. Fifth Feather often says that it’s movement rather than Annette Frontpresence that leads to the best scoring opportunities, and the PP was a perfect example.

The Hawks were set in a 1–3–1, with Strome in front of the net; Gustafsson at the point; and Top Cat, Toews, and Kane going left to right. Rather than handing the puck off to Kane and having all four guys watch him stick handle, the Hawks elected to let Gus take the lead. With Toews roaming around in the mid-slot and acting as a dual retriever/safety valve, Gus, Top Cat, and Kane had more room to play a triangle passing scheme. Kane also had the freedom to skate on either side, with Top Cat and Gus rotating to fill, and that strategy is what led to the goal. With Faska missing his stick, Kane broke the script and skated around him to DeBrincat’s spot on the far-board circle. DeBrincat cycled to the point and Gus dropped lower toward the circle on the near boards as the Stars defense sagged, leaving DeBrincat and Gus all the space in the world to play catch and open a lane. Once Gus got the return pass, he had all the time and space in the world, and it was because the Stars had to keep an eye on Toews in the middle and Kane wherever Kane decided to be.

Sure, Strome was in front screening, but the movement on that PP was something I haven’t seen from the Hawks in a long, long time. It was simply gorgeous.

– Patrick Kane was spry tonight. His backhander in the second was special, and his skating and vision set up the PP goal. That creep can roll.

– Cam Ward had himself a nice game. Sure, he did something you don’t often see—whiffing on covering the puck with his glove, leading to the Stars’s second goal—and he looked stabby and gooey at times, but he made several high-danger saves too. The defense wasn’t nearly as bad as it has been in front of him tonight, which certainly helps.

– I’m not going to be too hard on Carl Dahlstrom, given that he’s been thrown into the deep end. But he probably could have done more to prevent the Stars’s first goal. He got beaten both to and off the puck by a streaking Gurianov, even though it looked like Dahlstrom had a better angle as the play was developing. He then overcommitted trying to stop Benn’s pass after Benn cut back behind the net, leaving Seguin all the room in the world. Although the real culprit on this goal is the Fels Motherfuck, because saying Seguin couldn’t throw a grape in the ocean in the preview was just begging for him to score.

– It mostly worked out tonight, but I’m still baffled that Artem Anisimov gets to play with Strome and Kane. Granted, his pass from the near boards to set up Kane’s goal early in the second was nice. But after that? In the lead up to Seguin’s goal, Strome and Anisimov had a 2-on-1 developing. Watching Anisimov and Strome try to execute a 2-on-1 is like watching slugs fuck. Strome just kept waiting for Anisimov to beat his man, and he may as well have tried to light water on fire. Strome probably should have taken that shot, but you know who would have made it to the spot he needed to be at? Alex DeBrincat, who continues to prove he isn’t a third liner.

– Which means that of course DeBrincat scored on the third line. Credit to Kampf for getting enough of the puck on the faceoff to give Sikura a chance to complete the set play, dropping the puck onto a waiting DeBrincat’s stick and past THE BISHOP! Though the fancy stats don’t do DeBrincat justice, he had a few good takeaways to go with a few bad giveaways. All in all, a definitely-not-a-third-liner performance.

– I’m not sure what Dominik Kahun is, but it doesn’t look like he’s bad. He led the Hawks with a 56 CF% on the night. He, Toews, and Saad clicked well tonight. Brandon Saad was a force in the first and good throughout as well. And of course, Toews’s renaissance continues. The Hawks may not have a ton going for them right now, but the top line looks legit.

– Our sweet Irish son was having himself an alright game before Tyler “I completely deserve my last name” Pitlick took a page out of the Tom Wilson Being a Horse’s Ass for Dummies book and drove his elbow directly into his mush. With all the blood spilling on the ice, it looked to be a broken nose, and in a best-case scenario, that’s all it will be. Like Gustafsson, Murphy’s raw CF% wasn’t great (44+), but adjusted for score and venue, it was a robust 51+ despite facing mostly Benn, Seguin, and Klingberg. Small sample sizes be damned: Murphy has been the best Hawks D-man overall, and they can’t afford for him to miss more time.

What’s baffling is that Pitlick didn’t get a call on his cheap shot. He had more than enough time to adjust to the play, which happened smack dab in the middle of the ice as the Stars were starting a breakaway. That the refs missed the call was nearly as egregious as Pitlick’s outright assclownery. Pitlick saw Murphy over his shoulder and drove his elbow into his head anyway. What a dickhead. I hope he has a bad Christmas.

– Brendan Perlini continued his tour de force of being really fast and having no finish. Still, you like his straight-ahead speed, which is obscene at times. THE BISHOP! did a fine job of stuffing him twice on a breakaway midway through the first, but Perlini got his, potting the final empty netter and icing the game.

– Gustav Forsling looked fine tonight. If he can continue to look fine, that would be OK with us.

Two wins in a row feels nice, especially since the Hawks haven’t looked overmatched for the most part. Tomorrow will be a true test against the nightmare that is the Avalanche. Collin Delia would do well to smoke ‘em if he’s got ‘em, because it’s not going to get much tougher than what he’s going to see tomorrow.

But tonight, we said we were hungry and they gave us meat. Get down, make love.

Beer du Jour: Miller High Life

Line of the Night: “Hawks Win!” – Pat Foley with a minute left

Everything Else

Unity

By Sam Fels 2287 0

You may be wondering what would be the point of watching the Hawks the rest of the season. We go through that as well. So it’s probably part of our job to point out stuff for you. It should be things that portend to a brighter future, no matter how incremental. So here’s one: since returning from injury, Connor Murphy has been the Hawks best d-man, and it’s not even particularly close. Yes, that’s not much of a claim given the state of the crew, but you asked for anything.

What’s been startling about Murphy in just six games is that he’s immediately been tossed into the dungeon as far as zone starts and competition. Overall, Murphy has started just 40% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and over the past four games that’s just 29.5%. For references sake, the lowest Off. Zone start % in the league among d-men is around 33%, so if Murphy keeps this up he’ll lead the league in it by some distance.

And that hasn’t really meant Murphy is getting his head kicked in. There was the ugly game on Sunday against the Sharks, but the Sharks will do that, especially when the Hawks pretty much were in mourning over Crawford and Cam Ward didn’t know how his legs worked. Murphy was equally buried against the Jets the game before, starting just 20% of his shifts in the o-zone and over half in the defensive zone. He and Dahlstrom were faced with Scheifele and Blake Wheeler all night and still managed a 45% Corsi, which considering the circumstances isn’t ridiculous. Last night saw him pitted against Johansen and Fiala, which isn’t a full-strength top line for Nashville to be fair, and though they did get the Preds’ one goal the Hawks ran over that line most of the night to the tune of a 55% share and 64% scoring-chance share.

It is just six games, so he’ll have to keep it up, but Murphy’s relative scoring-chance percentage, high-danger scoring chance percentage, and expected-goals percentage are all top-1o in the league at the moment. He’ll probably be hard-pressed to keep these going if he’s getting just 25% of his shifts in the offensive zone and starting so much in the defensive zone, as well as facing the hardest competition in the league in terms of Corsi % as he is now. But it is highly encouraging. Especially as we thought he wouldn’t be able to bend over after back surgery.

Funny enough, another d-man with some truly torturous zone-starts is one Niklas Hjalmarsson. And all of Murphy’s numbers are the same or better than Hammer’s, so if everyone could shut up about this trade for like five minutes that would be truly helpful to everyone else involved.

The reason is clear. While Jeremy Colliton may be getting a ton of things wrong (though the past few games have been better), him simply not being Joel Quenneville is doing wonders for Murphy. Last year, Murphy knew that any hint of a mistake would see him tumble down the lineup, benched, or scratched before Q retreated to his office to apologize to the alter of Hjalmarsson for failing him, followed by Q would covering himself in ox blood. Now Murphy knows he has a prominent spot and he’s not going to lose it at a whim.

The knock before on Murphy was that he couldn’t take on the top lines and competition, and only four games of doing so is not proof that he can, of course. And even if Murphy were to end up being a high-end second-pairing guy, that’s a nice piece to have around and really the absolute maximum Hammer could have offered you going forward, and for not as long.

Because while the Hawks have a logjam now on the blue line, mostly of crap, it gets worse next year. We know that Keith, Seabrook, Murphy, Jokiharju are locks to be here, for varying reasons. If I were to guess, two of Boqvist, Beaudin, and Mitchell will be as well. That’s six, and none of them have yet proven to be top-pairing players, or have proven they are very much not. Which means if the Hawks plan to turn it around quickly, and they probably need to, they’re going to have to also find a way to bring in a genuine, top-pairing player, If Carl Dahlstrom continues his superb play, he’s also in the discussion.

The Hawks could alleviate some of it by playing seven d-men a night, which more teams should do anyway. But that won’t solve it all. If Murphy can continue to play well with the toughest assignments, it makes the picture next year at least not as daunting.

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile – Oh, What a World

By John Pullega 1958 0

Since about the time the organ-I-zation fired Q, this year has been a Sisyphean attempt to roll the boulder up the hill after slamming your hand in a car door. Except now, with Crawford’s year (and perhaps career) in jeopardy, we’ve got a rabid dog chewing around the crotch, picking at what little usefulness this team has left in it. So let’s.

The Dizzying Highs

Dylan Strome – He’s certainly passed the eye test recently, and he’s got two goals in his last four games to boot. It looks like Colliton is done pretending to throw the ball and then laughing when the dog can’t find it, as Strome has begun skating with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane from the outset recently. The biggest knock against him, his skating, hasn’t been as bad as advertised, and the instincts and hands are there. He’s only 21, and unless Kane’s dad decides that his son is done playing in Chicago, a DeBrincat–Strome–Kane line is something to rebuild around.

The Terrifying Lows

Corey Crawford – We featured him here last week based on performance. In the two-plus games he played since then, he looked to be working out whatever bugs he had in his system. Sure, a .903 SV% isn’t winning any awards, but he managed to drag the Hawks into three of four points against the Penguins and Jets. And he didn’t look terrible last night against a Sharks team that outclassed the Hawks with all the playfulness of a cat dropping a spider in its water bowl and batting at it while it drowns, waiting for the perfect point of saturation to finally eat it and end its suffering.

But Crow isn’t here for his performance necessarily. He’s here because watching him smack the back of his head against the post because Evander Kane can’t be bothered to do anything like a fucking human being with any understanding of any kind of social contract in any context was by far the worst moment of this foregone fuckfest of a season. He’s confirmed to have a concussion, and with how long and difficult it was for Crow to come back from the last one—which itself occurred on Dec. 23, 2017, because whichever god Crow has bothered adheres to an awful schedule—there are serious questions about whether he comes back at all. Sometimes, hockey just isn’t fucking fair.

Concussion recoveries vary, so it’s possible he’s back this year. You hope he is, because at least with Crow in the net, there were hopes that the Hawks could win a given game. Being elbow deep in this season, I simply can’t get onboard the tank train, even though I understand the sense it makes logically. I still want to watch this team win, even if it hurts their chances at Jack Hughes. So, in that context, watching Crow go down to a concussion again is a double heartbreaker. He wasn’t at the top of his game, but he gave this team hope. Now that he’s gone—at least for a while and in the worst case for good—the light has gone out of our lives.

The Creamy Middles

Connor Murphy – You knew we weren’t going to do this without mentioning my sweet Irish boy, didn’t you? Murphy was never going to be a savior for the Hawks, as that’s simply not his game. He’ll always top out at “good,” but for a team that yearns for “competent” and rarely gets it, Murphy may as well be a savior. He got the primary assist off a point shot yesterday for his first point of the year. He’s slightly above water in CF%, with a 50.31%. He’s playing primarily with Carl Dahlstrom, but no matter whom Murphy’s been paired with, that’s consistently looked like the best pairing on the ice. We’re five games in and it’s safe to say that Murphy’s the Hawks’s best D-man, which, as you all know, isn’t saying much. But it’s hard not to like him, both on and off the ice, and on the ice, he’s looked as good as a tall guy with a bad back can look.

Henri Jokiharju – Our other “tops out at ‘good’” D-man, I wanted to be mad at him yesterday for a couple goals. But looking back, Jokiharju has two things working against him: First, he’s 19. We knew the learning curve was going to be steep, and at times, it has been. Second, Duncan Keith—and you’re going to get tired of us reminding you about how much we love him before we dump on him, but with all he’s given this team, he deserves the kisses we blow before the punches we throw—refuses to adjust his playstyle to what his body can do. That often leaves Jokiharju to clean up messes he’s probably not capable of cleaning up yet. Still, over his last four, he’s on the plus side of the possession ledger. His 98.6 PDO on the year probably tells the story for Jokiharju best. I’d love to see what a Murphy–Jokiharju pairing would look like, but the price of admission for that is Keith–Seabrook and Gustafsson–Dahlstrom.  I don’t think any of us have the emotional or physical wherewithal to watch those two snuff films night in and night out.

Dylan Sikura – He’s been a ghost since his call up, but his power recovery, penalty draw, and SOG that led to Brendan Perlini’s goal last night were outstanding, so he gets a mention. He’s probably not much more than a third liner at the end of the day, but that’s fine.

Everything Else

Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Preview/Wrapping Party: The Mole And The Mallet

By Sam Fels 1754 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Jets 20-9-2   Hawks 10-18-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

FOR WE’VE NOWHERE TO BE: Arctic Ice Hockey

Now that the Hawks have finally broken their duck, or the latest duck (no, not that duck), what better time for the first visit of the team that’s dribbled their head on the ground like a basketball twice this year? That’s right shitheads, whatever good feelings were generated by Wednesday’s win over the fading-titan Penguins is probably getting snuffed out by current titan Winnipeg Jets.

There isn’t much more to add to this one that we didn’t already say on Tuesday. You’d imagine that the Hawks want to keep as much the same as possible, when they played pretty well. So Dylan Sikura should stay with David Kampf and Brendan Perlini, which made for an awfully effective third line on Wednesday. The fourth line of Andreas Martinsen, Marcus Kruger, and John Hayden produced two goals, so you know they’re sticking together. I don’t know if they’re actually any good (yes I do, they’re not) but they work hard and the Hawks almost certainly need that right now. And we’ll get to see more of Dylan Strome, Top Cat, and Patrick Kane together and if they can outshoot their possession and defensive problems.

At the back, I would be of the opinion that Carl Dahlstrom should get another run-out with Connor Murphy (UNITY!), because they were really good against Pittsburgh and really, what the fuck are you holding onto here? If Erik Gustafsson is healthy he should replace Brandon Manning, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he replaces Dahlstrom. Corey Crawford will get a chance to build on his first win since the Bush administration.

As for the Jets, they rolled from their barely-breathing-hard win over the Hawks into an overtime win against the Oilers last night at TRUE NORTH. It wasn’t a pristine effort as they blew a 3-1 lead and needed Mark Scheifele to pull their ass out of a sling to tie it and set up the winner in overtime. They didn’t suffer any injuries so you’ll see the exact same team that rubbed the Hawks’ ass in the moonshine on Tuesday before they started dreaming of butterflies and fluffy clouds and let the Hawks back into it. That includes backup Lauren Brossoit, who was shaky against the Hawks. His last three starts have been iffy really, as he gave up three to the Devils before that and four to the Blues, which is a real trick as they’re actively trying to not win. Brossoit had a big start to the season but the shine is starting to fade. So there’s some hope for the Westside Hockey Club.

This is a rare scheduling bonus for the Hawks, who haven’t caught a lot of teams on the second of a back-to-back. Combine that with the Jets taking the Hawks lightly, which is always possible, and maybe you can get the jump on them quickly. Crawford was awfully stabby and jumpy against the Penguins but still got the 40 saves to get a win. He certainly needed the confidence boost and hopefully he begins to smooth out a bit and get on a roll, if nothing else than to prove he still can. Of course, any streak of old Corey is going to fire up the trade wishes/rumors again, but that’s the course we’ve been set.

Let’s to it, lads…

 

Game #34 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #32 – Hawks 3, Jets 6: Start The Fire, Headfirst Into The Firefight

By Sam Fels 1698 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica 

It’s unfair, and nearly impossible, to get a handle on what kind of job Jeremy Colliton is doing after 17 games. I could sit here and say that the Hawks don’t quit even when they’ve been down for what is it, 13 straight games? And I could say that he doesn’t have anything to work with, especially on the blue line. I could say that they’re not getting saves (though they did tonight to a point). I could say a lot of things.

But then there’s the starts. And whatever the problems are on the roster, and they are numerous, there’s no way we can sit here and say that the Hawks haven’t consistently come out unready to play. You can’t fall behind for as many games in a row as it is now, and usually my multiple goals, and claim otherwise. And that has to be coaching. Or preparation. Whatever you want to call it.

Now maybe it’s on the players, who got one coach fired and don’t seem to be responding to the next one until there’s a certain level of embarrassment/professionalism/both. But you’d think you’d find a way to get through to everyone, veterans and neophytes alike, to get that to kick in when the first puck drops. It’s been a month since they have. That’s on someone.

Sure, lack of talent is the biggest culprit. But then explain an effort like this from one of your alternate captains:

Maybe Seabrook is so used to getting beat to the outside that he was just turning and getting ready for it. But facing the wrong way and just leaving your stick out there in the hopes that Kyle Connor would somehow trip himself or something, that’s a shit-assed effort. That’s I-couldn’t-give-a-fuck effort. And that’s from a player playing catch-up most nights when he does care.

And he still gets 22 minutes of time. Now, perhaps Colliton fears he simply can’t go to the mat with any of his veterans, but at some point that bleeds from reverence to no one’s accountable. And that’s only going to get worse if it goes unchecked. Maybe the perception would be Seabrook is the easy target, because Quenneville scratched him once last year. But it also wouldn’t make it much of a shock for the rest of the team. Colliton has played tough guy/bad cop the last time the Hawks were outclassed in Winnipeg in the press. At some point that has to happen with the team.

That doesn’t mean going Jim Fucking Boylen on the Hawks, I don’t care about bag skates. I don’t care about turning over postgame spreads or anything like that. But someone is going to have to pay for any part of this with ice time, and stripping it from a young player isn’t the answer.

Fin.

The Two Obs

-The other mark against Colliton is that the Hawks continue to not have any communication in the defensive zone. Don’t fool yourself, switching from the zone system the Hawks used to play to the man system they want now isn’t like going from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The principles are at least based on the same thing. It’s amazing how many times you look and you’ll see the Hawks have everyone covered, and then simple movement from an attacker and a lack of talking either causes the Hawks to not switch guys or completely ignore someone on the other side of the ice. That isn’t about talent. That isn’t anyone getting beat. That’s just a lack of attention to detail.

-There isn’t much else to point out, because you don’t learn anything when the game is over after 15 minutes and the only reason it becomes anything of a contest is because the team leading is already making plans for the night after the showers. so let’s talk about Eddie Olczyk’s and Pat Foley’s race to be the next Hawk Harrelson.

It’s clear Eddie’s war on analytics is directed at Stan Bowman, and perhaps at whoever else told Eddie he couldn’t be a coach or GM because of his dismissal of them. We’ve spilled countless words on the idiocy of this “fight.” Mostly because every other sport, including soccer by the way, has long ago accepted that there is useful information to be found within them and it helps build a team to win.

And Pat and Eddie’s contention that they don’t tell you who wins battles, as close as it is to Hawk’s TWTW mantra, is quite simply wrong. Because it tells you who gets the puck. Which is generally a good idea, or so I thought.

I’m resigned to the rest of the season being Eddie essentially reading his resume on air a la Mark Jackson a few years ago on NBA broadcasts, and Foley being his hype-man. I can only hope Eddie keeps displaying the reasons why no one should ever hire him.

-Also their 10 minute discussion of the 80s Oilers and 90s Penguins wasn’t all that far off from Hawk’s love letters to Yaz.

-Last point, Olczyk did claim that they both think the goaltending has been good. Crawford is at .901. Ward is at .888. They have the ninth-worst SV% at evens and the 4th worst overall. So yeah, it’s been great.

-As for the on the ice. it’s clear that Dylan Strome has use. How much, don’t know yet, and his learning curve is going to be longer. He’s got the hands and vision but he’s going to have to wait until his anticipation and instincts get him to the spots he needs faster than his feet get him there now. That can happen. It may only lead him to being a poor man’s Brad Richards, but that’ll play. It certainly is going to take more than the 50 games the Coyotes gave him.

–Connor Murphy is a clearly more confident player when he’s not worried about his coach painting a big, red #4 on his face and then beating Murphy over the head with a shovel every time he makes the tiniest mistake. I look forward to what it looks like when he’s up to game-speed.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Game #32 – Hawks vs. Jets Preview/Cook Book Club: When On A Death March Manitoba Is The Place To Be

By Sam Fels 1696 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 9-17-5   Jets 18-9-2

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WARM JETS: Arctic Ice Hockey

When you’ve lost seven in a row for the second time in a season, and really the second time in about five weeks, I think it’s healthy to play a team that’s better than you at every single position. It’s just crazy enough to work! It’s going to be an extremely busy week for the Hawks, and I can’t see how that’s a good thing if only because they’re going to plague society with their brand of hockey four times in the next six days. It kicks off in Manitoba tonight, where they just were and pretty much got flambed until the Jets completely turned off, and then the Jets will be here again Friday. The Hawks might just be getting deeper and deeper into the hot dog machine before they come up for anything resembling air again.

Not much has changed between these two teams since they last did this in the last game of November. The Hawks haven’t won,  and the Jets have only dropped one in the last five, somehow getting shut out by the Blues at home. Maybe they did that just to tease the Hawks and let the Blues pass them in the standings. They’re just that vindictive.

At this point, there isn’t much to inform you about the Jets. You now that they’re four lines of fury. You know that the top six is probably the best in hockey. You know that Adam Lowry and Matthieu Perreault form one of the best checking lines in hockey. You know that Jack Roslovic on the fourth line is going to burst out at some point soon. You know the defense is a little shaky, and especially this season, but that it matters little when the forwards are this good. You know that Connor Hellebuyck has been having a dodgy season, but since giving up five to the Hawks (mostly after the Jets had kicked their feet up and put on sunglasses), he’s given up just six goals in his last four appearances and three in his last three. And you know that plenty of other goalies of late have used the Hawks to remember what it feels like to feel good about oneself. The Hawks have become the ugly best friend to the rest of the league.

So yeah, the Jets come into this one rolling, pretty much healthy, and needing to keep pace with the Predators and Avalanche at the top of the Central. All that spells “FUUUUUUUCKK” for the Hawks.

As for the Hawks, a couple changes. Artem Anisimov is in a dark room somewhere, so David Kampf is moving back to center…Patrick Kane? Oh dear lord. Chris Kunitz looks like he’s coming back in to fuck things up, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Alex Fortin.

Gustav Forsling isn’t eligible to come off the IR yet, so Brandon Manning should keep his place in the lineup with Brent Seabrook, at least for a while. The only pairing that Jeremy Colliton seemed inclined to keep together on Sunday was Connor Murphy and Erik Gustafsson, and everyone else rotated (though some of that was due to Manning missing a good chunk).

There’s nothing I can say to make you think this one will go well. It probably won’t. The Hawks just aren’t cut out for this type of thing anymore. Maybe you catch the Jets in a midseason malaise or Hellebuyck has a game-long sneezing fit. But hey, we’re in this together.

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built