Baseball

We Could Plant A House, We Could Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Hyun-Jin Ryu

By Sam Fels 1261 0

We know that the Cubs need an upgrade in the rotation. We know that they know this. We also know that they’re probably just going to fill it by promoting Tyler Chatwood to it while claiming poor as Tom Ricketts lights another cigar with a $100 before having a money fight with his brother. Or they’ll dive around a money tank like Scrooge McDuck. Whatever. That doesn’t mean we can’t hope or that it’s all a slow-play. Which I thought last winter and all I got was this stupid rock. Anyway, if you’re going to upgrade the rotation, a Cy finalist seems like a pretty good idea, no?

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well this one’s as obvious as Thor was yesterday, and that’s because Ryu is really good. Unless a 2.32 ERA and 3.08 FIP aren’t your thing, in which case you’re just baseball stupid. It’s ok, a lot of people in this town are! Including some who run both baseball teams! Being stupid doesn’t preclude you from your dreams, this is America after all!

Anyway, Ryu actually saw a drop in his strikeouts this year, but also cut his walks to almost nothing, which meant he was still carrying damn near a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio, which plays just about anywhere. Ryu was also able to up his grounders to a rate not seen since his rookie year, which he did by upping the use of his change-up at the expense of a cutter. That change produced a 53% ground-ball rate. Ryu found a way to get more downward tilt on that change, which made it a real weapon. And change-ups are something you can keep going for a while.

Ryu’s sinker also produced an obscene amount of gopher-killers, but isn’t something he goes to as much. Still, it might be something he uses more of as he gets more into his 30s. Ryu never threw all that hard, but his four-seamer is barely above 90 now so he’s had to get a little more creative.

Ryu had a bit of luck last year, with only a .278 BABIP. But the Dodgers had an excellent defense simply everywhere, and he would enjoy at least the same level of infield play in Chicago. If he keeps his grounder-heavy ways, that should play out just about the same here.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): The first problem with committing to Ryu is health. He missed all of 2015 and 2016 aside from one start, and only made 15 starts last year. Even this year he only made the post 29 times, and he’s only cracked 30 starts once, which was his rookie year and now six seasons ago. If you have him in your rotation, you have to have backup plans. Which was fine for the Dodgers who had about eight or nine starters either on their roster or in the holster at AAA. The Cubs really only have Chatwood right now and maybe Alec Mills, and I would need a fair amount of Pepto if they had to rely on Mills for more than a spot start or two.

Second, Ryu is 32, so you’d have to conclude he’s probably been as good as he’s ever going to be and you’d be paying for the downside of his career. As a pitcher who doesn’t rely on strikeouts, you’d be a little more comfortable with him as he ages, but the margin for error with him is also that much smaller.

Third, coming off that season might delude a couple teams into paying more than they should, which we will get to directly…

Some Silver? Little Gold?: The other way this might break is that because of his injury history and his age, combined with the frugalness/analysis/collusion of teams in the free agent market these days, Ryu’s price-tag and years he gets might not be all that high. Remember, Dallas Keuchel had a Cy Young in his closet, some of the same profile as Ryu, and was younger and he waited until June to sign. The idea that any team is going to give Ryu much more than three years is probably a little far-fetched.

MLBTR has Ryu getting three years and $54M, and $17M-$18M for a #2 or maybe #3 starter is hardly the worst idea in the world (the Cubs will be paying a combined $30M for their #4 and #5 mind). If the Cubs would still be interested in Cole Hamels for one year at $12M give or take, would taking on the better, younger pitcher for an extra two years for another $5M or $6M really be so outlandish?

Could It Happen?: Unlikely. Ryu is probably going to have a lot of suitors that will drive the price and years north of where you’d want to go. But if the market slow-plays again, or outright just ignores pitchers over 30, then the Cubs could lurk here and get a pretty nice deal. Again, you wouldn’t want to go more than three years, but that is basically where the Cubs have the clock set anyway. With Lester and Q almost certainly phasing out after this year, you could slide Ryu down the rotation if you felt like you needed to and with only a two-year commitment left you’d have space for more. Especially if Alzolay by some miracle proves ready for the rotation in 2021.

Probably another dream, but not total fantasy.

 

Baseball

We Could Plant A House, We Could Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Go**amn Thor

By Sam Fels 1666 0

Hello there. Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be cycling through some realistic, and not so realistic offseason targets for the Cubs, either via trade or free agency. Today, we start with the not s0 realistic. 

Now that the World Series is over, and as I’ve said already, I’m going to wake up every morning terrified that this is the day the Cubs do something truly stupid. Not that it’s ever been in the Theo DNA to reach for the truly outlandish, but it feels like the walls are closing in on the front office. There’s the pressure of its first truly disappointing season (again folks, they won 95 games in ’18 with half a Kris Bryant), the expectations of fans, and the demands of ownership both for a winner to fill the park and get eyeballs to Marquee while also squeezing the payroll. There seems to be a reckoning coming for the Cubs in two seasons when just about everyone who matters aside from Kyle Hendricks (and possibly Yu Darvish matters now?) are free agents and just how the Cubs will get out of that.

That’s a lot of pushing from opposing sides, which could leave an irrational pimple like me to pop. I’ve concluded that the Cubs will make a big trade, involving a name we all love, and that’s just how it’s going to be. My deepest fears are that it will be Kris Bryant, which I’ve already spent months outlining just how stupid that would be, and will spend many more weeks doing so even more.

But there’s going to be one. So my only hope is that it brings someone fun and good back. Which is why we’re kicking off with Noah Syndergaard.

Why could this happen? Because the he hates the Mets and they hate him. Any Met who ever bothers to point out that the Mets are run in a very Mets way generally ends up not-a-Met before too long. And Syndergaard nearly ended up not-a-Met-anymore at least year’s deadline. Also, Thor will be due his own windfall of cash in two seasons as well, and even though they’re a New York team the Mets seem to find a lot of ways to not pay people anymore. Call it PBSD (Post Bonilla Stress Disorder).

Now hey, maybe the hiring of Carlos Beltran signals a turn to rationality for the Mets. And maybe Blake Lively will leave Ryan Reynolds for me. This is the goddamn Mets we’re talking about. They’re always likely to do something stupid. In fact, they want to do something stupid.

Why A Spoon, Sire? Because it’s Thor! He’s 27, can throw a fastball through three live horses the long way if he wanted to, with a devastating slider and a very improved change-up. He’s got Cy stuff. And he’s under team control for two more years. So even if he’s projected to make $9.9M this year, considering what he can provide he’s the biggest bargain financially you’ll find. He’s been a four-WAR pitcher the past two seasons, with a FIP under four and a 2.80 one in ’18. In a season where everyone was giving up hard contact, Thor simply didn’t, with hard-contact rates under 30% in ’18 and ’19 and a line-drive rate under 20% this year. Quite simply, he can be a dominating presence, and you can’t have enough of those.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): The thing with Thor is that when you see the stuff, you’re sure he should have deGrom like numbers. And he kinda doesn’t? He’s always struck out a hitter per inning at least, but never gotten into the 11 or 12 per nine innings range where the citizens of Olympus live. And…well actually that’s it, because Thor has put up ERAs under 3.00 twice and another season of 3.03. While deGrom has stolen the headlines with his Cy Young and likely another one on the way, Thor would be the #1 on a lot of teams. It’s not his fault the Mets have been pretty much garbage since his rookie season or that they somehow stumbled into one of the few pitchers better than him on the same rotation.

The other knock on Thor is health, which is a valid concern. But he’s also coming off a season where he threw 197 innings, a career-high, and he’s basically made every start asked in three of his five seasons. With someone who throws this hard there’s always questions about durability. But hey, you can’t make a Molotov cocktail without lighting a fire here and there.

Some Silver? Little Gold?: Ah, here’s the problem. Syndergaard isn’t coming cheap. And we don’t mean in terms of money. The Mets probably know they have a golden ticket here, and sadly they’re not so stupid to miss what that means. So you’re not going to get him pried loose by giving up thrift store fodder.

So what could they use? Wilson Ramos wasn’t exactly terrible for them last year, but he’s going to be 33 next year and has fallen off some of his big years with the Nationals and his one year in Tampa. He’s got two years left on his deal, though the second is a team option and both are at $10M. They couldn’t really find anyone behind him.

So Willson Contreras would be an upgrade, considering he was the best hitting catcher in all of baseball last year in wRC+. He’s an offensive upgrade on everyone, whether you like it or not. He’s also five years younger than Ramos, with what at least appeared or could be argued was improving defense/framing. The Mets had a middling offense last year and could use the boost.

Sure, the Mets could probably more use an upgrade in centerfield, but I don’t think Albert Almora is getting this deal done somehow.

Would Willson for Syndergaard be enough for the Mets? Probably not. But you wouldn’t have to throw in too much more than that, especially if you took Ramos back to split time with Caratini.

Could It Happen?:

But we can get to reality later.

 

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: The Pen And The Rest

By Sam Fels 1484 0

I finally wrap up our Cubs season review, perfectly timed with snow on the ground and the World Series now over and waking up every day from here until March thinking, “Today is the day the Cubs are going to do something stupid, isn’t it?” Anyway, I didn’t feel like giving everyone in the pen or bench a full write-up, so let’s just speed through them and get on with our lives, shall we?

Craig Kimbrel – Jesus God. It was a desperation move, and it played out exactly like one as Kimbrel couldn’t overcome the delayed start to his season, and then the rush job to the Majors. He was bad, he was hurt, and then he was bad. His velocity was down a full two MPH from 2017, the last time he was some galactic creature batters couldn’t handle. He was good in ’18 but the walks had crept up, and that didn’t stop in 2019 either. Perhaps with a full spring training and a clean bill of health, Kimbrel can recover a portion of the lost velocity. He’s never going to be CRAIG GODDAMN KIMBREL again, but there’s little reason to think he can’t be a good to very good reliever. David Ross might want to think about talking to him about moving into something other than a strict closer role so the whole pen can be fluid, but I won’t hop on one foot waiting for that to happen.

Kyle Ryan – Pleasant surprise, of course after I declared he was a new suckbag. Hard to know if he can be counted on again, because he’s the type of reliever that just turns into discarded hygiene products for no reason other than he’s just a reliever. Gets a ton of grounders. Worth taking another look at.

Steve Cishek – Thanks for everything, but remember when you leave your right arm is probably staying here.

Brandon Kintzler – Returned to being the solid reliever he’s been most of his career. Probably worth a one-year deal if he’s willing, but also used earlier in the game and not counted on as a prime set-up guy. Gets lefties out, so hopefully Ross isn’t afraid of using him that way like Maddon was if he’s still here.

Tyler Chatwood – I have this dream where Chatwood and Alzolay are used as multi-inning weapons once or twice a week each, maybe more. That shields the rest of the pen, takes some pressure off the starters, and lets Chatwood come out and blow 97-98 MPH past guys like he was later in the year. It’s probably what he’s best at. The reality is he very well might have a chance at the fifth spot in the rotation. It’s hard not to notice the near 4-to-1 K/BB ratio in the last two months when he became accustomed to the role. It might not be what he wants, but he is good at it.

Rowan Wick – The Pitching Lab’s first success? Probably could have been slotted into a prominent role much quicker than he was. Strikeouts faded laster in the year as he was used more and more, which is a concern. Still gets a ton of grounders. Has a job to lose come Arizona.

David Phelps – Get the fuck outta here with this.

Derek Holland – Great entrance song. Everything else sucked.

Brad Wieck – See, this is really how you’re supposed to find relievers. You find something in a pitcher that his current team doesn’t, or that can be changed or harnessed, you pick him up for nothing and get him firing upon arrival. This big lummox isn’t there yet, but there were signs of hope and is definitely worth another spin. Struck out nearly 17 hitters per nine innings as a Cub.

Dillon Maples – It’s just never going to happen, is it? There is an absolute monster in there somewhere, but it’s buried in fastballs that hit the screen or the mascot. Might be time to wave the white flag on this one.

Duane Underwood Jr. – Yeah sure, let’s see more.

Clearly there need to be upgrades here. You can’t go into next season with questions hanging over Kimbrel and unknowns like the Fabulous Wick-er Boys and some kids. I would say two solid vets, not too expensive, is the prescription here. We’ll get into our shopping list next week.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Cole Hamels

By Sam Fels 1475 0

We wrap up our singular player reviews (I’ll have a group one tomorrow about the pen and bench) with the pitcher who might have saved it all, who probably could still help, and yet is probably not coming back. It was a confusing year for Cole Hamels, who looked 27 again for much of it, and then definitely 35 for the important portion. Wait, that’s not confusing at all. Pretty simple, even. Well I’m an idiot. Anyway, let’s do it up.

2019 Stats

27 starts, 141 innings

3.81 ERA  4.09 FIP

9.08 K/9  3.56 BB/9  1.39 WHIP

47.3 GB%  36.4% Hard-Contact Rate  12.9% HR/FB

87 ERA-  2.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It’s probably best to look at Hamels’s season before his late-June oblique injury and then his attempted comeback as two separate entities. Because before the injury, Hamels was pretty brilliant. In the first 98.2 innings of 2019, Hamels had a 2.92 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.58 FIP. Hitters only managed a .231 average off of him, and he was getting over half his contact on the ground. That’s all very good, and no one seemed to care that he was 35. Or even notice, really.

And then he got hurt. And it was the same injury he had in Texas, the one that knocked him off-stride for basically a full season. The one that made him pretty damn affordable via trade for the Cubs. And it was clear that Hamels wasn’t healthy, but still trying to pitch through it, which should have raised more question than it did about the Cubs medical and training staff as he was far from the only one laboring through lingering physical problems. Hamels only threw 42 innings after the injury, though he made 10 starts. His ERA was 5.79. Hitters went for a .315 average off of him, his walk-rate went up a third, and his ground-ball rate dropped by almost a quarter.

When Hamels came back, he had lost a mile per hour or so from all of his pitches, and he didn’t throw that hard to begin with. Worse yet, he’d lost a ton of horizontal movement to his cutter, which wasn’t even breaking in on right-handed hitters anymore. To go with that, his change had lost some fade as well:

It was almost as if Hamels couldn’t “finish” his pitches due to some physical ailment.

Hamels wasn’t around for the series at home to the Cardinals, and didn’t complete more than four innings in any of his last four starts. He was able to gut through some starts post-injury or dance through raindrops, but also got mutilated by the Brewers, Phillies, and Reds in the back half of his season. A healthy Hamels most certainly doesn’t lose all those games, and can probably go longer in others and show up to the post against the Cardinals. Would it have made a difference? It would have made a difference, perhaps not the difference.

Contract: Free agent.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: This isn’t as cut and dried as some Cubs fans might think. While it’s clear the Cubs need an upgrade in the rotation, and now thanks to the hole left by Hamels they have a clear spot to do it in, the options aren’t plentiful. Gerrit Cole is a pipe dream, and even if Stephen Strasburg were to opt out he might be an even bigger pipe dream (as well as something of a scare after his postseason load. Yes yes, “phrasing”). The rest of the free agent pool absolutely blows. Trade targets aren’t plentiful, as Syndergaard might not be gettable for what the Cubs have to peddle. An aging Corey Kluber? That might yield the same results as Hamels, given his injury problems this year, and he’s only two years younger.

So what the Cubs, or any other team, needs to decide is if Hamels is the pre-injury dude, the post-injury dude, or something in between. And with that, at age-36 is he more or less likely to get hurt again, or more or less likely to recover as well from this one. That’s a lot to figure out, and pretty much none of it has a clear answer.

The pre-injury Hamels is probably enough for the Cubs, especially with a boosted bullpen and at a cheaper rate than the $20M he got last year. Given his age, injury, and the miserly free agent market run by all the scrooges, he’s never going to get that $20M again. But even a guy who’s in between Hamels’s pre- and post-injury performance isn’t enough for the Cubs. Not without another move, at least.

The Cubs might be best slow-playing this one unless something else falls into their lap. If Hamels can’t find the money he wants or team he wants for a while, and you can get him on reasonable money for one year, he very well might be worth the risk. Again, until his injury, Hamels had the 12th-best ERA in all of baseball top-20 in FIP.

Still, you’d have deep reservations about him making it unscathed through a full season, and if you plan on playing in October again, how you’d manage him through that as well. I’d still say if he comes in at somewhere between $10M-$12M for the season, you could absolutely justify the risk.

It shouldn’t be the Cubs first option. Maybe not even second. But as a third or fourth? You can definitely see it.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Jose Quintana

By Sam Fels 1352 0

Jose Quintana has probably lost his chance to win over Chicago Cubs faithful now, given that the return for him has washed up on the shores of Comiskey Bay. It’s hard not to cast longing eyes at Eloy Jimenez’s bat, even if I’m skeptical that Dylan Cease will ever have enough control to be as effective as the stuff promises. And even if Q had one more season to create a legacy, you can certainly see a scenario where that season will be shipped somewhere else. Let’s take a look at Q, and where it went wrong for him this season.

2019 Stats

31 starts   171 innings

4.68 ERA   3.80 FIP

8.00 K/9  2.42 BB/9  1.39 WHIP

44.5 GB%  38.1% Hard-Contact rate . 12.1% HR/FB

107 ERA-  3.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: I hadn’t really looked at Q’s season closely until now, and what’s kind of weird is that even with the last third of it being so bad, it was still a way better season in terms of WAR or FIP than 2018. Which I’m having a hard time reconciling. It might have to do with luck, as Q was laced with a .326 BABIP this year whereas he had .282 one the previous season, both of which nestle comfortably 20 points either side of his career norms. So while his ERA was markedly better in ’18, what the underlying numbers are telling us is that it probably shouldn’t have been. Q cutting his walks and homers significantly this year also speak to that.

Q came into the season saying he wanted to use his change-up more, and for the most part he did. He had never used it more than 6% of the time in previous seasons, but was up near 12% this time around. He got gun-shy with it at times early in the year, but overcame that. The problem was it became less effective as the season went along, and was pulverized by hitters in September where everything went wrong. The whiffs-per-swing rate on it in the season’s final month was a paltry 16%, and hitters ran up a .462 average against it. The problem was that it lost its sink as the season went along…

That’s one reason Q’s September looked so horrible, with an ERA nearing 6.00. Another was that in the last month, when the Cubs really needed him, Q had a BABIP of .447. And that’s with his contact numbers remaining the same. I can recall off the top of my head two starts, against the Nats and the Padres, where he couldn’t get his defense to make an out if they had that Bugs Bunny glove.

But still, Q gave up way more hard contact this year than we’d seen in the past. Then again, that was the story for most pitchers this year. There was a change in approach from Q, who went to a sinker more this season than ever before and also tried elevating his fastball more when he did throw it. Q used to try and Lester it by burying his four-seam on the hands of righties, but maybe he didn’t feel he has quite the hop on hit anymore to get in there. The zone-look on his career and this year’s fastball due bear that out.

Which makes you wonder where he goes from here, as it’s unlikely that his fastball is going to pick up a tick in his 30s. He’s a pretty smart pitcher, so you’d have faith he’ll come up with something. As September showed, hitters could just start leaning out and taking balls on the outside corner wherever they wanted, which is noted by the 43% pull-rate hitters had in that month even though Q was concentrating most of his stuff on the outside corner.

Contract: $11.5M team option for 2020, $1M buyout, then free agency in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Even if the Cubs would rather move on from Quintana or upgrade in the three or four spot, to be more kind, picking up his option is a no-brainer. Even half-dead fifth starters make more than $11.5M, so Q remains an absolute bargain. He would have some trade value simply due to that, and then add whatever bounce-back an interested team would anticipate on top of that.

There are obviously big warning signs. The decreasing velocity and the inability to get inside on righties. His durability isn’t what it was, as he hasn’t come near 200 innings in the past two seasons. That was one of the draws. The WHIP and contact numbers are headed in the wrong direction.

Still, the Cubs need an upgrade in the rotation even with Q in it. Moving him along means they would have to fill two spots, and Q as a #4 or #5, which is what he was really supposed to be this yea before Hamels got hurt and basically was, it a good spot to be in. If the Cubs can find one other starter to slot ahead of him and Lester and up among Hendricks and Darvish, they’ll be just fine. If Q can find a way to get inside on righties or find a way around not being able to, he’s an excellent candidate for a return-year.

The urge to upgrade is reasonable. The path to doing so isn’t so easy, and considering what he costs and what the Cubs might have to spend, having him slot at the bottom of the rotation is nowhere near a death sentence.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Yu Darvish

By Sam Fels 1453 0

It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.

Actually, it was the reverse for Yu this season. He was fighting it for most of the first half of the season. Then he was able to locate his fastball, started throwing a knuckle curve simply because he thought it would be fun, and put up some of the more ridiculous numbers you’ll see. Unless you think a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio in the second half isn’t ridiculous. There is some noise in there, and it’s hard to know what exactly the Cubs will get moving forward here. But let’s try and pick out what we can.

2019

31 starts   178.2 innings

3.98 ERA  4.18 FIP

11.5 K/9   2.82 BB/9   1.10 WHIP

45.5 GB%  31% Hard-Contact Rate  22.8% HR/FB Rate

91 ERA-  2.6 WAR

Tell Me A Story: So yeah, the big thing with Yu was the split between his first half and his second half. He had an ERA over five in the first, and 2.76 in the second. We could keep going with these stats, but you already know the deal here. Yu stopped walking anyone in July, started striking out everyone, barely gave up a hit as he had a WHIP of 0.81 in the second half. So yeah, that WHIP, that ERA in the second half, that K/BB rate over a full season puts you in Cy Young discussion. The question is whether Yu can do it over a full season. Maybe it’s best to try and find what changed to figure it out.

It’s a little hard to do that with Yu, because this crazy motherfucker throws like seven pitches. So he might go to one or two of them more often in one month simply because he’s bored or because it looks like one of his other pitches that he’s just changing the speed on. So his slider and cutter can get confused for each other, so can his curve and slider. Then a split and change and we could just go on here but before too long the room will be spinning.

In July, when things turned around, Yu started using his cutter about three times as much as he had before. It was his go-to pitch when he needed a strike. But in August he went away from it and not much changed. And then he went back to it in September. Yu definitely started throwing his curve in July and stuck with it for the rest of the season. And you can probably see why:

Which probably was due to this:

Clearly, picking up Craig Kimbrel‘s knuckle curve, mostly because he thought it was interesting, gave his curve more bite and something of a wipeout pitch. Or another wipeout pitch, as he’s got a couple.

Yu was very slider heavy throughout the season, although sometimes that can be his cutter too, and he threw it at Corbin-levels of 40% throughout the season. But it maintained a whiff-per-swing rate over 30% for the season, so I’m not going to complain too much.

Yu’s biggest problem was the home-run ball, as it was pretty much everyone’s this year. Yu had a HR/FB rate of 22%, which was miles beyond his career-high. Even in the 2nd half it was 19.7%, which is still very high. But as we said as it was happening, this is mostly luck. Yu’s hard contact-rate against was fifth best in all of baseball, so it’s not like he was continually getting crushed. He just watched fly balls, and some that weren’t even hit all that hard, continually float out of the park. This could simply correct because baseball is gonna baseball on you. He did give up a higher hard-contact rate on fly balls this year than ever before, but then so did pretty much every other pitcher on the planet.

If there’s one thing we can point to, it’s that Yu was concentrating his fastball and cutter a little higher in the zone a little more of the time this season. Which leads to more fly balls obviously…except that Yu had the highest ground-ball rate and lowest fly ball rate of his career this past season. Again, I have to chalk this up to weirdness.

And homer issues have plagued Yu before. He gave up 26 in 2013. He gave up 27 in 2017. He was giving up a homer per start with the Cubs in ’18 before getting hurt. It might just be his thing. If he runs an ERA around 3.00 while giving up a fair amount of solo homers, no one’s going to care all that much.

The usual luck alarm-bells only half-ring for Yu and his split season. His BABIP was actually higher in the second half, though .276 is lower than his career average and probably will come back a little. Except for the caveat of just how little hard contact Yu was giving up. Though that’s balanced a bit by the greater amount of grounders. Yu also had an 85.2% left-on-base percentage in the 2nd half, which is a tad high. He got some good sequencing there, and that could correct some next year.

Contract: Signed for four more years for $81M. Opt-out this winter.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Well that’s up to him. Yu could chase more money this winter with his opt-out. But considering what the free agent market has been the past two winters, and he turns 34 next August, it’s hard to see how he’ll do better than the average for $20.25M he’s got now. And he hasn’t expressed any interest in doing so, though we know how these things could change when teams start whispering into his agent’s ear. Still, unlikely.

So the question for the Cubs is what can they bank on from Yu at 33. Can he be that second-half guy for a full season? You’d be asking for some career-best numbers in his 30s, which generally doesn’t happen. He’s probably not going to strike out over 13 hitters per nine innings again. But he’s consistently been over 11 for his career, which is what you’d expect. The thing is, his low-walk ways are the norm, not the wayward inflatable clown he looked like at times in the first half. He ended the season at 2.82 BB/9, which is basically where he was ’15-’17. He found a rhythm in the second half that he’ll have to keep.

The question for Yu is if he can quiet down the home runs. If he has the near 6-to-1 K/BB rate that his 2019 season totaled, but can bring the homers in under 25 or even 20, his ERA naturally is going to sink to between 3.00-3.50.

It’s ambitious or more to expect Yu to be the #1 Power Cosmic he was from July on last year, because it’s not really what he’s ever been. But solid #2 or plus-#2 starter production is certainly in the wheelhouse. It’s not Yu’s fault the Cubs don’t have a genuine #1. If they get more than that, all the better.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Kyle Hendricks

By Sam Fels 1295 0

Maybe there will come a point where I can just fully enjoy the work of The Cerebral Assassin and not have this niggling little voice in the back of my head that fears when the bottom will drop out on him. I’m not the only one, I know. You see the stuff and wonder just how long the magic can go on, even though it’s gone on this long. When will I not worry that the tiny margins of error Hendricks has will be eaten up by just a tick of a loss in velocity or movement, and suddenly he’s going to be crab meat for everyone. It’s been four years of this. Four years of being one of the best pitchers in baseball. No, seriously, he is. If you go by WAR he’s 14th. If you go by ERA he’s ninth (ahead of Chris Sale if you can believe it). FIP he’s 23rd. WHIP he’s 12th, nestled between Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner. You have to ask yourself how much longer this has to go on before I and others relax. Anyway, over the river and through Hendricks’s 2019…

2019 Stats

30 starts  177 innings

3.46 ERA  3.61 FIP

7.63 K/9  1.63 BB/9   1.13 WHIP

41.3 GB%  10.4 HR/FB%

79 ERA-  4.1 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Quite simply, it was Hendricks’s best season since his Cy Young finalist season of 2016. He set a career-low for walks, and he did all that while actually getting the least amount of grounders he ever has. And that was seemingly by design, which at first you would think is insane from a pitcher whose fastball couldn’t break wind. And yet, Hendricks himself said he was trying to go high in the zone and above it more often, given how hitters had adjusted their swings. The charts are there for all to see:

And it clearly worked. Hitters couldn’t do much with any of Hendricks’s offerings up, as they didn’t manage an average over .220 in any of the three sections of the upper part of the zone .

Hendricks also upped the use of his curve, especially on first pitches to lefties (18% to 24%) and overall to righties, going over 10% for the first time when ahead or with two strikes. He had never really used it as an out-pitch before, but wasn’t afraid to do so this term. I don’t know that Hendricks’s curve is all that good, and maybe now that it’s entrenched in scouting reports and hitters will be looking for it it could be a problem. I also know that Hendricks will probably keep working on it and turn it into more of a weapon than it was, because that’s just kind of what he does.

Durability might be something of a question. This is the second year in three that he’s had some IL time, and he’s only been over 180 innings twice in five seasons. That could also be due a little to Joe Maddon’s itchy trigger finger with him at times, but it’s not a concern until it becomes one.

As seems to be a trend with Kyle, he had a rough start with an ERA over 5.00 in April, and his career mark is around 5.00 as well in the season’s opening month. Maybe it just takes him a little time to find the feel for everything or adjust to the cold. If he ever dominates an April to go with the most of the rest of his work, he’ll probably contend for a Cy Young again. Kyle had a rough August, but that’s mostly to do with giving up six of the 19 (!) homers he gave up all season in that month and some fiendish BABIP treachery.

Contract: Four-year extension begins at $12M.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: For the deserved kvetching over the Cubs and their payroll, it has to be said that the four-year, $55M extension they signed Hendricks to last spring training is an absolute steal. Again, if you look at the pitchers Hendricks ranks among the past four season, almost all of them are at least $20M pitchers and some are near or over $30M. He might not have any of their stuff or flash, but he has their results. Which in the end is all that matters.

It’s hard to say if Hendricks’s new gambit of going up in the zone will work over time, but the thing about Kyle is he’s always ahead of the game. He’ll adjust back down the zone or something new before hitters have caught up to his elevated ways.

Yeah, there’s worry about the loss of velocity, as even Kyle probably can’t dodge, duck, and dodge his way around hitters if he’s only throwing 85 MPH. His fastball is down a mile and a half per hour since 2016, and his sinker has lost nearly two. But we’re probably a few years from really having to worry about it.

We should just relieved that will all of the variables on this roster going forward, Hendricks is a known known. Even if my brain will never let me fully accept that about him.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Jon Lester

By Sam Fels 1468 0

No one outruns time. We knew when Jon Lester signed this contract in the winter before the 2015 season, the end of it could get a little hairy. The Cubs have gotten just about what they could have expected, if not a little more. But the fear is that the END has come for Lester, and the Cubs and him are just going to have to survive the last year of it in 2020. Is there hope for better?

2019 Stats

31 starts  171.1 innings

4.46 ERA  4.26 FIP

8.65 K/9  2.73 BB/9  1.50 WHIP

1.36 HR/9  14.6 HR/FB%

102 ERA-  2.8 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Let’s start with the good stuff, just for funsies. Lester struck out more and walked less hitters in 2019 than he did in 2018. He had a better ground-ball/fly-ball rate. He gave up less line drives. So hey, that’s all good, right? Maybe he didn’t have as bad of a year as we thought?

That’s somewhat true. Lester was undone by a horrible BABIP of .347, 46 points worse than his career norm and a 57-point rise over 2018. That’s just luck…for the most part. Lester suffered from a bad hard-contact rate against, by far the worst of his career. Which followed ’18’s mark…which was also the worst of his career. That’s not luck. Lester gave up an expected average against of .282, which is some 60 points worse than his brilliant 2016 for comparison. It was a similar story with the expected slugging and weighted on-base against him, so though he probably could expect a few more balls to land in gloves, considering the amount of rockets he was giving up he can’t really depend on the good fortunes of BABIP Treachery either.

Lester tried to bat away the ravages of age by going less and less to his declining fastball and using a cutter more, probably to get in on righties a little easier. It did not go particularly well, as hitters went for a .294 average against it and a .506 slugging. Perhaps more worrying is this:

Whenever Lester threw that cutter in the zone, it got pulverized. And while Lester lives on the edges, he does have to throw a strike, y’know, occasionally. Whenever he did with the pitch he used most, it was plasma. This is a problem, and leads you to believe there will have to be a change in approach come the ’20 season. In previous seasons, Lester had found success by keeping that cutter up and in on righties. But even that, as you can see here, didn’t do much good this past season. Is he going to have to be Gio Gonzalez now, and just wager that hitters can’t stay patient enough to not swing at four balls before they get themselves out? It might be worth a shot.

It got to the point with Lester where the rotation was rearranged in September so that he wouldn’t pitch against the Cardinals in that series at home. Lester was ok in September overall, giving a good outing against the Reds in that Week-us Horriblus and holding the Mariners down on Labor Day. But he also got horsed by the Brewers and Pirates when the Cubs needed at least length against the latter and a win against the former. You always counted on Jon to somehow gut through a game the Cubs had to have, and either he didn’t at times or they stopped counting on him to do so. That’s probably the surest sign of age right there. Overall, Lester was blowed up in August and not much better in September, which again might have to do with age more than anything.

Contract: One more year at $20.0M, and a $10M buyout or $25M option in ’21 if he were to pitch 200 innings in 2020.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: There’s no boot in the ass option, and as Lester’s salary drops to $20M this year it’s not really egregious at all for what he will most likely be. You can do a lot worse in the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation than what Lester looks lined up to provide, and seeking it on the open market would probably still cost $12M-$15M anyway. So an extra five or so isn’t really killing the Cubs, though that won’t stop them from claiming so. Lester isn’t going to make 200 innings, as he hasn’t done so in three seasons now. He may want to, and he may try and pitch through some stuff to get there, but that will only make things worse. And maybe one bonus of having David Ross as manager now is Lester is less likely to either want to or be able to bullshit his way back to the mound if something on him is barking.

The question is whether Lester can be anything more than a competent seat-filler at the back of the rotation, and if the Cubs will need more than that depending on what they go and get to fill it out, if anything. The declining stuff can’t be gotten around, and it’s not like Lester is some loaf who can invent a new offseason training regiment or something. He’s already a tireless worker. This is just what happens to pitchers in their mid-30s who have logged these miles (2500 career innings). It would appear Lester’s plan of attacking hitters on their hands just isn’t going to work anymore, because he simply can’t get in there with the velocity or movement he has. At least he can’t in the strike zone. Maybe he can tweak that cutter to get a little more movement, but we’ll have to see on that one.

Lester has a decent enough curve, but he’s not going to be Rich Hill and snapping it off nearly half the time. Perhaps Jon needs to hone in on the outside corner, and as soon as hitters begin leaning out there can surprise them with the cutter in instead of using that as his main office.

Whatever for Vaughn. The Cubs can’t count on anything more than #4 production from Lester, and plan accordingly. That said, this being his last year in a Cub uniform should be something of a love fest for him. It was his signing that signaled the Cubs were ready for deep shit. It was he who pretty much dominated the 2016 playoffs, staring down Johnny Cueto first, keeping the Dodgers at bay twice, and then gutting out six innings of one-run ball in Game 5 against the Tribe when the Cubs had no choice. He’s been more than just a loyal servant and usually found a way to give you something even as his stuff and health have slipped. He was definitely a tone-setter in the clubhouse as one of the few players who had been around a lot.

Yeah, he got a lot of money. I doubt there’s a Cub fan worth a shit that would do that contract over, though.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Nicholas Castellanos

By Sam Fels 1651 0

And now the big debate. It’s actually a couple rolled into one. Is Nicholas Castellanos the player he showed for the two months he was a Cub? Is he what came before that? Is he what the final numbers on 2019 with both Detroit and Chicago say? Somewhere in-between? And then you add to those questions whether he should be re-signed or not. It’s a lot to figure out, and that’s before getting into the Cubs’ figment budget questions that they’ve made real.

2019 Stats (DET & CHI)

151 games  664 PAs

.289/.337/.525

27 HR  73 RBI

6.2 BB%  21.5 K%

121 wRC+  .357 wOBA  .883 OPS

-12.6 Defensive Runs Saved   2.8 WAR

Tell Me A Story: You could say that Castellanos was THE story for the Cubs last year, at least on the positive side. He came in at the trade deadline and immediately started hitting, and never really stopped. He inarguably brought a jolt to the Cubs, and they were a team that definitely could have used it. Castellanos was certainly more explosive than either Almora or whoever else he actually replaced in the lineup by pushing Heyward to center.

If you were to only look at his numbers with the Cubs in the last two months, he looks like an MVP candidate. .321/.356/.646 for an OPS of 1.002 and an OPS+ of 151. As Castellanos himself pointed out, the more friendly environs of Wrigley made a difference in his home run production, as he hit 16 in the season’s final two months after hitting only 11 in the first four in Detroit. And half of them came at home, so over a full season that projects out to over 40 homers and near 50 for a season. Of course, Castellanos isn’t going to ever match the 32% HR/FB rate he had in August as a Cub. But even the 14% he had in September was higher than anything he did in Detroit last season, and above his career rate.

What Castellanos did do, regardless of where he was playing, is hit the ball damn hard. He had a hard-contact rate over 40% every month of the season, which the Cubs simply don’t have a lot of. Only he and Schwarber eclipsed that mark for the whole year. For comparison’s sake, the Dodgers had nine guys who did. The Astros seven. Maybe the problem isn’t the amount of contact, fellas?

And that’s just about the story with Nic At Nite. There wasn’t that much of a change from the Tigers to the Cubs. He mashed fastballs and sinkers there, and he did so here, and with a slice more luck and a smaller park, the numbers swelled. He’s a good hitter who got hot and he will almost certainly remain a good hitter.

A key aspect to the Castellanos debate is his defense. It was better in ’19 than it was in ’18, and there isn’t nearly as much ground to cover in Wrigley as there is in Comerica, even if you have to deal with the sun and wind and Ryker from Highland Park throwing beers at you. But it still wasn’t good, The optimistic will tell you it was only his second season playing there and the improvement from ’18 to ’19 will only continue. The pessimistic will tell you he looks awkward as fuck out there, his routes are Dali-esque, has next to no range, and he just doesn’t have a feel for it out there and probably belongs in left. Which probably means the truth is somewhere in the middle as always.

Contract: Free Agent

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Oh if it were only so simple. Yes, with no budget constraints-perceived or real or self-imposed or necessary–you’d re-sign Castellanos and have him and Schwarber in the corners to mash and you’d find a better solution in center to cover for their defense and maybe provide some offense and consign Heyward to the 4th outfielder role he’s been hurtling toward for four seasons. But life isn’t that simple.

These days, it’s impossible to know what Castellanos can make on the free agent market. A couple years ago, you’d be sure it was over $20M a year for five years at least. Now three years for between $51M-$54M seems the more likely, and even then who knows what the collusion owners will dictate.

But even at that $17M figure, it’s a tough squeeze for the Cubs. Even with just their arbitration raises as projected, the Cubs end up near $180M in payroll. And that’s if they don’t get to extend anyone with a bigger figure. And it could be more than that. That might leave somewhere between $35M-$40M to play with. But if you and Castellanos half of that, is $17M-$20M enough to get the extra starter and bullpen arm or two the Cubs need more desperately? It could be but would be a tight squeeze.

On the other side, having Castellanos on the team most certainly can’t hurt and if he’s anything close to the August-September guy, $17M is a bargain. If a third season sees his defense improve…maybe you can get away with it? Can you live with Heyward for a full season in center? Doubtful. Would you trade Schwarber? That’s production you’d have to find again and probably pay premium, either through money or trade, to do so. Isn’t that running in place?

On the plus side here, I don’t think there are any wrong answers. You can sign Castellanos and just say you’re going to bash the shit out of the ball and hope that’s enough to outrun your at-best subpar outfield defense. Or you can let him walk, use that money for the pitching you don’t have, and mitigate not having that offensive production. And maybe with a smart trade you can get some of it back anyway.

Looking at it though, Castellanos hits the ball awfully hard. The Cubs don’t. They’ll have to answer that somehow.