Baseball

Digging Through The Scrap Heap

By Sam Fels 1515 0

As the Cubs continue to emulate that “C’mon, do something” meme in real life this offseason, there was a charge of excitement, I don’t know why, when the non-tender list came out. Some of that was from Addison Russell being told to do one, which is understandable. Most of it though is from wannabe GMs who see no problem with the raft of pretty good players being cut simply because they were do a lot of money and want to do everything with the first aim being saving money and looking economical. Welcome to baseball before the 2020 season. Isn’t it grand?

But that’s life these days, so it’s probably a good idea to sift through a couple names that are making the rounds in greater Cubdom that could be help not so expensively.

Blake Treinen – The appeal of getting to make a lot of “Les Weinen” Sideshow Bob jokes is a big one, but that doesn’t really help the Cubs on the field. And Treinen might not either. What gets people’s pants to tighten is that Treinen is only one year removed from being the most dominant closer in the game, with the theory being he can’t completely have lost that. Oh, but he could have!

It’s vital to understand that Treinen’s 2018 had some clearly unsustainable numbers. Namely a .230 BABIP and a 4.4% HR/FB ratio. These are things that are simply not going to happen again. 2019 saw a violent market correction (BABIP is violence, Perry Farrell), with those numbers rebounding to .306 and 16.4%. And Treinen’s ERA went with it, to nearly five with a FIP that was over five.

More worryingly, Treinen’s strikeouts shrank from 31% to 22% while his walks more than doubled. That’s not just bad luck, that’s bad stuff. And that is born out by his fastball losing nearly a mile an hour of velocity and his slider losing both vertical and horizontal movement. It led Treinen to go away from it to a cutter that didn’t do all that much except make his outfielders run a lot.

The hope with Treinen would be that you could rediscover how he could regain some of the movement he lost in his slider or cutter, as well as maybe rediscovering the ways his sinker can turn into grounders again (51.2% ground-ball rate in 2018). And maybe that’s what the pitching lab is for, but it doesn’t appear that his arm angle or release point changed all that much. Remember, 2018 is really the outlier in his career, and though 2019 was excessively bad it more accurately reflects what he had been in DC. If he can find more ground-balls he can be effective again, but he maxes out at a Brandon Kintzler and you already have a Brandon Kintzler. Or you did. Could again.

Kevin Pillar – Oh goodie, an older Albert Almora. Just what I always wanted.

Charlie Culberson – You see how people got here, as he also is only a year removed from a 108 wRC+. But he strikes out a ton without providing much pop, and his infield defense grades out as “Haunted House Prop in May.” The Cubs don’t need him in the outfield, so this is going to be another hard pass.

Cesar Hernandez – Probably still expensive even after getting non-tendered, and his offense has been trending the wrong way for a couple seasons. Hernandez used to be able to get buy a little bit with speed, but was down to nine stolen bases last year which dropped his BABIP to .317 from the heights of the .330s before. He does make a ton of contact, though not much of it is hard. Both his walks and strikeout fell off a cliff last year, which is just weird, but he never struck out much before and you can expect that to continue. Still, he can only play second, and the Cubs at the moment have Bote and Happ who can do that and likely Hoerner at some point. Move along.

Steven Souza Jr. – Intriguing, given that he’ll be dirt cheap after missing all of last year with knee problems and having 2018 basically ruined by a couple injuries. In 2017 he hit 30 homers for the Rays, though that’s getting a bit in the rearview now. He couldn’t buy a bucket in 2018, and might as well put the glove on his head when in right field. He also saw a quarter of his fly-balls leave the park in ’17, which isn’t sustainable. Though his career-rate is 19.6%, so it’s not as outlandish as it might normally be. On the plus side, even in his ravaged ’18 season he managed a 44% hard-contact rate, before it became de rigeur. You have no idea what you’d be getting after a year out, but the dream scenario is he’s Castellanos on the cheap. But if you want that…just sign Castellanos because I know and you know and they know they have the money to do that.

Jimmy Nelson – It would help if he weren’t made of boogers and wish fulfillment. Still, you remember him being utterly dominant in 2017 until his shoulder turned to cheese. Nelson missed all of 2018 and might as well have missed all of last year, starting just three games. He might not be able to even pick up a baseball. Still, he was hesitant to use his fastball last year which had lost some steam, but that could be simply because of the time off. Could be worth a spring training invite just to see if you can regain his downward tilt on pitches, but you wouldn’t be counting on anything here.

 

Baseball

Cubs Release Addison Russell, Proving It Was All About Baseball After All

By Sam Fels 1698 0

Remember “Quiz Show?” Pretty brilliant Robert Redford-directed film. Great cast. Maybe the one time Hank Azaria played an unrepentant asshole. David Paymer and John Turturro are just awesome, and pretty much showcase the entire Jewish spectrum. Somehow it starred Rob Morrow, which gets funnier and funnier the more you think about it.

Anyway, the climactic scene is when Ralph Fiennes’s Charles Van Doren sits before Congress and admits he got the answers before the shows. And senator after senator compliment him for his statement, until the surly, frumpy one from New York (of course he’d be from New York) finally says that his colleagues are full of shit and that he shouldn’t be commended for doing what’s right. Which earns standing applause from the gallery.

That’s kind of how I feel about the Cubs non-tendering Addison Russell yesterday. It really deserves no more applause than getting a vaccination. It’s what you’re supposed to do. Except in one light…is it?

I’ve always been a shade toward the middle on the whole thing when it started last year. Obviously, Addison Russell is a giant piece of shit and I would have been sated had they tossed him in the same dumpster as the giant Wrigley cake from years ago. But, and I could just be drinking the Kool-Aid, I believed Theo when he said they were genuinely interested in his rehabilitation and what was best for Melisa Reidy, who they said had requested that Russell not be released. Multiple times when they announced they were not letting Russell go last year, Theo stressed that Melisa and their child’s well-being and wishes came first.

Sure, deep down I knew it was about not losing an “asset” for nothing, and the hope would be that he would hit for at least a month or two and not spend the season shoving his cleats up his ass every which way so they could trade him and get something in return. But it seemed a pretty good cover story at least.

Of course, Russell sucked all year and proved to be an inattentive dope as well. And the first paragraph of the statement tells you everything: If you haven’t seen it in full:

The first thing they mention is that his contribution on the field would not be anywhere near what he would have to be paid. And normally that would be enough. But Addison Russell isn’t normal.

Last year, they said they were keeping him because they wanted to be on the frontline for his rehabilitation, to make sure everything was being done for Melisa and their child, because they didn’t want to simply wash their hands. They wanted to be involved. They wanted to be on the front-line. They wanted to be at the head of change throughout the league. They wanted you to believe then that his performance didn’t really matter.

And now it’s top of mind.

Of course, they say that his adherence to whatever they set out for him off the field has been up to the standards they set. No one knows really what this has been, and I’m not sure anyone should, although some idea of how intensive it’s been would certainly help. Whatever it is, it certainly can’t have been “completed” in just a year. But now the Cubs aren’t really worried about it, because he’s not their player anymore.

They also didn’t miss the chance to trumpet their own horn, but at least they didn’t lead off with it, so they’re one step ahead of John McDonough. Still, using this at best uncomfortable situation and at worst abhorrent as a platform to boast about your accomplishments and changes, ones we can’t really put a finger on, doesn’t really scan fully either.

Clearly, the Cubs had no choice in the public’s eyes, and no one is going to criticize this move. It’ll be on Addison’s new team to make sure he keeps adhering to his growth and change as a person. Except if there is no new team, what then? What if it’s just on him until April or May? Or longer?

I’m certainly not unhappy he’s gone, though I bet I see even more #27 jerseys in the stands from jackasses who have to prove just how uncaring and menacing they can be simply because. But if it was all about his change and growth, and you were so involved, wouldn’t the Cubs have to keep him so they could as closely monitor it as possible?

That would have been an impossible choice to make. This was certainly easier. But if you take them at their word, always a bad idea when it comes to front offices in any sport, it might not actually have been the right one.

Baseball

Whit Merrifield Isn’t That Great Of An Answer, Certainly Not At That Price, Shut Up

By Sam Fels 1671 0

Cubs fans, and perhaps only Cubs fans, could be caught in the middle of their analytic leanings, fan passions, an unwillingness to hold ownership responsible for being pricks (who just sold their main company for $26 billion I might add) and a desire to win now. But that’s where we’re at. So you can have a section of fans thinking it’s ok to trade Kris Bryant to restock the prospect pipeline even though you’re in the middle of your championship window, and those who would toss overboard up to three prospects for Whit Merrifield.

To quote a great philosopher of our time, Bubbles, “No offense, son, but that’s some weak-ass thinkin’. You equivocatin’ like a motherfucker.’

Here’s the thing. Whit Merrifield isn’t that good. He’s good, but he’s not a top tier player, like some think and the Royals are definitely charging prices equal to that. Perhaps greater Cubdom is still scarred from Jim Hendry dry-humping Brian Roberts for so long that everyone ended with up with a rash and blisters that everyone thinks the Cubs need to have that type of player.

Perhaps most think Merrifield is the player from 2o18, when he was worth nearly 6.0-WAR, stole 45 bases, made a ton of contact, yada yada yada. But he’s only been that player once, and that season looks to be the outlier. His other two seasons have seen him be a solid 2.5-3.0 WAR player, which is certainly worth having but not at the price of three pieces in return, the Royals reported asking price.

Within that, Merrifield gets on base at a decent but hardly eye-shattering rate, though he does hit enough line-drives to make you think it could improve. Additionally, his speed seemed to slip last year as he only piled up 20 stolen bases after his 45 the previous year.

To keep going, Merrifield’s defense took a sharp turn toward the Earth last year, especially in center, and he’s only been a nominally ok second baseman.

So let me ask you, what chance do any of these have of improving now that he’s over 30?

The discussion of a trade always centers around Nico Hoerner, probably because Hoerner is supposed to be at least the diet, younger version of Merrifield at worst. I guess you could see turning in the possibility for the real thing, but at some point the Cubs have to produce their own and Hoerner looked as sure a bet as any in his cameo last year.

The appeal of Merrifield is that he has a very team-friendly deal, with three years left at barely above what David Bote makes. You know who’s even cheaper? Nico Hoerner. And he’s eight years younger, I feel like I have to stress again.

Oh, and he doesn’t pitch.

I suppose you could accuse me of shouting at the rain that we’re not holding the Ricketts family feet to the fire enough, because they’ve made it clear what the Cubs will spend and we should just accept the world we’re in and what the Cubs can do in it. I won’t accept that, while allowing that’s how the Cubs will operate. Still, this doesn’t add up, unless the Cubs know of some flaw that Hoerner has that will keep him from even being anything resembling Merrifield.

I still maintain that the Cubs could roll with Happ in center to start, leaving him alone to play there every day, and Bote filling in at second until Hoerner is ready, while rotating Bryant (if he’s still here and I haven’t defenestrated myself over it) to the outfield occasionally and Heyward into center for other options in the infield. Do that to concentrate resources to the one starter and bullpen arm or two the Cubs need, and I can almost guarantee they would be approaching 95 wins again.

Merrifield would be a fine addition for a certain price, and maybe Hoerner for him straight up is something I could probably convince myself of, given the Cubs clock. But to add two more to that when you might need deadline additions as well? That’s a bridge too far.

Think harder, Homer.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Jon Gray

By Sam Fels 1309 0

We’ve been through a few pitchers the Cubs could just sign, some good some bad. We started this whole thing off with a trade target, and that was Thor, which will never happen. So let’s cycle back to another trade target, something of a baby Thor. And that’s Jon Gray.

Gray is probably on the trade market because he only has two more years of control, and the Rockies are loathe to spend money they don’t have to, even more than the Cubs. They’re not going to sign him when he’s a free agent, and there are some things about his performance that would give any team pause, so they can probably sell him at his highest now before he breaks again. Would he make sense for the Cubs? Yeah, he just might.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Gray was sneaky good last year, when you adjust for the fact that he basically pitches his home games on the moon. He finished the year with a 76 ERA- (100 is average, and counts down), which if he had enough innings would have been one of the best marks in the league. It was the second out of the last three that he was around 75, which he also did in 2017.

The strange this is this past season, Gray doesn’t have much of a home/road split. Hitters had a .261 average against him at home, and a .258 on the road. On-base and slugging are just about the same as well. His ERA at home was 3.46, and 4.22 on the road. He actually had a worse home-run rate on the road, which doesn’t make a ton of sense but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. And for his career, there really isn’t much difference between home and road for Gray. He’s basically the same pitcher.

Which is a pretty good one. Gray has struck out just a tick above a hitter per inning in all four of his full seasons in the Majors. If you go by percentage, he’s struck out a tick above league average as well. In three seasons, he’s maintained a 3-to-1 K/BB rate. This year, Gray bumped up the amount of grounders he gets to over 50%, which would play even better away from Coors as the altitude tends to turn their infield into a runway. Still, the Rockies had a great infield defense, which Gray would find here.

Ein minute bitte, vous einen kleined problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): There are flags with Gray, of course. One is health. Gray has never taken on a full slate of starts in a season, managing over 30 starts just once (and 29 on another occasion). He’s achy-breaky. He just turned 28, so he’s probably just always going to be the kind who misses 5-10 starts a year. Again, we’ve gone over this before, that the Cubs should be buffeted for that kind of thing with Chatwood and Alzolay around, but it’s not something you’d willingly choose if you didn’t have to.

Second, Gray only throws two pitches really. As we’ve seen with Chris Archer, the shelf-life for starters with only a fastball and a slider isn’t very long, and Gray could be coming to the end of his if he doesn’t add something. He does have a decent curveball, and if a team could draw that out of him more then you might really have something. It would just be a departure from his approach in his whole career. On the plus side, Gray’s fastball gained some velocity this past season, so it’s probably still some time before his fastball is a problem.

Third, Gray has given up a ton of hard contact, and especially this past season. Statcast has him at 43% hard-contact against, and FanGraphs at 39%. The StatCast mark is in the bottom 4% in the league, The average 89.8 MPH exit velocity isn’t pleasant to look at either, and that’s not altitude influenced. And he’s been trending that way for the past two seasons.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Gray would be moved for prospects, as the Rockies system blows, they don’t really want to add any payroll if they can help it. Gray has two years of arbitration left, and he’s projected to get $5.6M this year so you’d have to guess his last year of arbitration would be somewhere around $7M-$8M, unless he goes nuclear next year. His affordability will make him a harder trade, but them’s the breaks. The Cubs aren’t laced with prospects, and other teams might be in on Gray given his low salary and high ceiling and relatively established floor. It would probably take a couple B-Level ones to get this done. Very well might be worth it.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Brock Holt

By Sam Fels 1234 0

Full disclosure, a signing of Brock Holt would allow me to open up the box marked “Mike Olt/Steve Holdt Jokes” that I never really got to use much when Olt prove to be an oaf. So I’m biased. Still, while it would hardly be the sexiest signing the Cubs could make, it would have some purpose. The Cubs might need help filling in second base while Nico Hoerner cooks some more in Triple-A. They could use a little more flexibility, depending on what happens with Ian Happ this winter, or Albert Almora, or really the whole goddamn thing. And they can probably use some relatively affordable help. Holt checks all the boxes.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well one, Holt plays everywhere. He played second mostly for the Red Sox, but in the past has played short, third, some first, and even some spots in the outfield. He hasn’t flexed around the diamond of late, but it’s probably still in the holster if you need it.

Second, Holt murdered right-handed pitching this past season. If you focus only on his work against them, he slashed .318/.394/.438, good for a 119 wRC+. It’s best if you don’t look at his work against left-handed pitching, but the Cubs really should be covered for that with David Bote lying around and possibly Happ switch-hitting as well. He also had a near 40% hard-contact rate against them.

And that might be a one-season trend. In 2018 Holt hit both sides well, and his career numbers don’t suggest a huge split. Holt may have been a touch unlucky last year against southpaws, as with a 27% line-drive rate against them he only managed a .277 BABIP. He was probably due a couple more hits. That’s one of the better line-drive rates against lefties in the game, if he’d had enough ABs to qualify which he obviously didn’t as a utility player.

Thirdly, the Cubs seem intent on adding contact hitters to the lineup, and Holt is that when he plays. Holt has an 86.5% contact-rate, which on the Cubs would be just about astronomical. Of all their regulars, only Rizzo was above 80%. Holt walks a decent amount, doesn’t strike out much, and gets the ball in play. The Cubs don’t have a ton of that, though Hoerner is supposed to make up some of that difference.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): Well, it’s debatable how much the Cubs need a player like this, depending on the other maneuvers the team makes (Hilda…I have invented a maneuver….). There’s a chance Hoerner could start the year as the top second baseman, and he could fill in at short when Javy needs a day. As we said, Bote’s around, so Holt wouldn’t be much more than a left-handed compliment to him. And if Happ is still here, and not permanently installed in left after a Kyle Schwarber trade (don’t you fucking dare, Theo), he can bounce into second as well.

Holt doesn’t provide a lot of pop, just kind of serviceable offense that blends nicely with his flexibility. Or what used to be his flexibility. That’s the other thing, is that it’s been a couple years since he was moved around everywhere, so there’s a chance he might not be able to do it anymore. Still rather have him taking these ABs than Descalso, though.

Holt will also turn 32 during the season, so that also plays a role in what he can or can’t do.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Another part of the appeal here is he can’t possibly cost much. Holt made $3.75M in arbitration last year, and this is his first crack at free agency. I can’t fathom he’d cost more than $4M or $5M for one year, if that. Oh here’s a kicker, it was Theo who drafted him. So you know there’s a connection there. For a utility bat, you could do way worse.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Kyle Gibson

By Sam Fels 1160 0

Took me a week and a half, but I’m finally getting around to the pitcher that MLB Trade Rumors has the Cubs picking up. And that’s Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson. It wouldn’t be the sexiest name, and it might not even get your pulse going above normal at all. Does it make any sense? Let’s dive in.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Maybe because they think he’ll be cheap. Gibson did not have a very impressive 2019. His ERA was a full run higher than it was in 2018, and he had health problems with a bout of ulcerative colitis, which sounds just about as pleasant as trying to make out with a wolverine (not THE wolverine, because who here wouldn’t make out with Hugh Jackman? I thought so). Gibson has claimed it stemmed from catching E. coli last offseason on a trip to Haiti and the Dominican, as this story just gets more and more pleasant. How healthy Gibson was for most of the year, he wasn’t shut down until September, seems to be open for debate. Gibson did say he’d lost about 10 pounds through the colitis and hadn’t slept well all season because of it, so do with that what you will. Which should be nothing because…gross.

Anyway, even with that, Gibson’s 2019 looks a little better under the hood than the surface numbers would indicate. He continues to get a ton of grounders, 51% of his contact in fact. He struck out a career-high rate, with nine hitters per nine innings or 22%, another career mark. And his 7.9% walk-rate was the second-lowest of his career. He managed to do all that while trying not to shit out his guts, so you have to give him something.

Gibson was undone by things that might not continue. One being a 20% HR/FB rate, as he perhaps got the business end of the homer-karma the Twins had as they were belting out 300+ homers as a team that made no sense. Gibson’s career number in that category is 14.1%, so he could see a drop in homers against simply because reasons. Gibson has given up over 40% hard-contact on fly balls for the past three years, so that rate probably won’t come tumbling down either, though. Gibson also had a 67% left-on-base percentage, which means he was getting some bad sequencing luck.

Gibby also was undone by some fiendish BABIP treachery, with a .330 BABIP that was 22 points over his career mark and 45 points above his 2018 finish. Again, that will come down simply because, and might even come down aggressively with a Cubs infield behind him (not that the Twins were defensive stiffs or anything near it). Still, an expected slugging of .428 and an expected-wOBA of .330 is not exactly encouraging.

Much like his teammate Jake Odorizzi, whom we focused on yesterday, Gibson found a little bump in velocity with his fastball and sinker this past season. His sinker and change are the main ground-ball weapons, but he also used a curve more and perhaps an enterprising team would try to get him to use it even more. Gibson’s curve has really picked up drop in the past two seasons, along with some horizontal movement.

He only threw it 13% of the time last year, and perhaps bumping that closer to 20% could see him improve. With a 40% whiff-per-swing mark on it, it could be more of a weapon than it is at the moment, or at least there’s a chance it could.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): Well, there’s the small fact that Gibson really only has two good years in the majors, and that was 2018 and 2015. ’16 and ’17 saw him have an ERA over 5.00 and the FIPs weren’t kind to him either. Even though Gibson has never walked a ton of guys, while also not being terribly miserly with his free passes, his WHIPs have been horrific because he gives up a lot of hits, whether he’s being beaten about in homers or not. And that’s because he just gives up a lot of hard-contact.

While his stuff has improved, at least the curveball, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be a dominate-a-lineup guy and more of a dance-through-the-rain guy. And the Cubs already have like, three of those.

Gibson is 32 now and will be for the 2020 season, so his window of improvement is very small if it exists at all. This is probably the guy you’re going to get.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: MLBTR has Gibson and the Cubs coming to a two-year, $18M deal. Which is certainly the kind of deal you’d give to “a guy,” which is pretty much what Gibson is. He’ll take the ball 28-30 times and…well, that’s really all we can guarantee. Maybe if you change his repertoire around a bit and maybe if he’s finally past his internal health problems you can get a little more, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll give you anything spectacular.

If you’re looking merely to plug a gap, Gibson can do that. If you’re looking to actually improve that gap, then there are myriad options out there like the ones we’ve discusses–Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, and on and on. Gibson is basically a Jason Hammel, and the Cubs need more than that because they can’t guarantee Darvish’s health or revival at 33, and they have no idea what they’ll get out of Lester or Q.

Not enough…I need more…

 

Baseball

We Can Plant House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Jake Odorizzi

By Sam Fels 1193 0

It’s funny, because this is the name that the Sox fans in my life keep saying, “This is what we’re going to end up with instead of Cole or Strasburg.” Jake Odorizzi is seen very much as a consolation prize, or even worse by some. And he’s certainly not going to replace anyone at the top of anyone’s rotation. But he’s also not a bottom-rotation guy either, and wouldn’t you know it that the Cubs seem to have a hole right in between Darvish-Hendricks and then Lester-Q. So this might be a better idea for the Northsiders than the Southsiders. Let’s look.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well, there’s always risk in basing too much off a free agent year, which mysteriously seem to bring out career-highs for players in a lot of categories. Funny how that works. Still, Odorizzi is coming off of a season where he struck out more hitters than ever before, and the Cubs are not a high-K staff at the moment. He eclipsed 10 K per nine for the first time, or 27% of the hitters he saw. He had only been over 22% once before in seven seasons.

Odorizzi got there through a slight pop in his velocity, and also going to a power sinker far more than he had before. He started throwing it upon arrival in Minnesota in 2018, and then bumped up its usage to over 20% this year. The rise from an average of 91 MPH to over 93 on it this season led to a surge in his whiffs-per-swing on it, to 30% from 17%. Where earlier in his career he threw it less than 10% of the time with two strikes, this past season it was pretty much his kneecap pitch, throwing it a third of the time to put away lefties and 20% of the time to get righties.

Odorizzi also wasn’t afraid to go after hitters with his four-seam, and has really subscribed to keeping it high in the zone or above to get hitters out as well. And hitters have been less and less able to get to pitches in the top tier in the zone or above it, as their whiff-per-swing was higher this year by some margin than the career rate he’d managed in those spots over his career. So it could appear that Odorizzi has hit upon something to make ABs end more often without anyone moving (apart from the batter turning around that is).

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): One is innings. Odorizzi rarely if ever sees the sixth inning. So he’s a tax on your pen, and these days Lester and Quintana don’t figure to give you a ton of length either. Then again, this might just be how the game is now and the front office is planning for it.

Odorizzi made 30 starts last year, but only threw 159 innings. He got past the fifth in just about a third of his starts, and only to the 7th twice. He basically gets two times through the lineup and maybe a couple more hitters if things are going well. Again, this might just be the way things are now, and I’ll keep stressing that if you have Chatwood and Alzolay as multi-inning pieces in the pen at the same time, this isn’t that big of a deal. Alzolay would have to prove he can do that still, and the front office to plan for it. But more and more teams are going to have short-inning starters and multi-inning relievers to cover for it, so you might as well get on board now.

Odorizzi will also be 30 when next season starts, so his bump in velocity might only be a short-term thing. He’s probably not going to throw this hard, which isn’t all that hard, when he’s 33 or 34. Good thing no one signs four or five-year deals anyway.

Odorizzi also ran a pretty hot BABIP and hard-contact rate against last year, with Baseball Savant suggesting he should have given up a .400 slugging against. The hard-contact rate against him was over 40%, so while his BABIP was nearly 30 points over his career-average, you get the impression the Twins’ exceptional defense, especially in the outfield, bailed him out a bit.

The Cubs will not have an exceptional outfield defense.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: MLBTR has him staying in Minny to the tune of a three-year, $51M deal. That’s $17M a year, which seems a bit much for a third starter as he would be for the Cubs. It’s not other worldly though, at a time when you’re paying Chatwood over $10M to be a swing guy. Of course, this is probably Tom Ricketts’s point when he doesn’t want to pay anyone else. Odorizzi did get a qualifying offer from the Twins, which means if he doesn’t take it he thinks he can do better than $17.8M a year. He also would cause you to lose a draft pick, and the Cubs seem pretty intent on restocking the farm system (to psychotic levels or as a cover story for being cheap asses), so losing high draft picks probably isn’t on their radar for a mid-rotation starter.

FanGraphs has him pegged at a more reasonable three-years, $45M tab, which sounds much more appetizing for where and what he’ll be. Odorizzi basically provided what Cole Hamels did in the first three months of the season before getting hurt last year. And the Cubs paid $20M for that. So you do the math.

 

 

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Drew Pomeranz

By Sam Fels 1126 0

Quite simply, this was the reliever the Cubs should have gotten at the deadline instead of dead-ass and dude-on-the-couch lookin’ motherfucker Derek Holland. The Brewers did, and watched Pomeranz become a monster out of the pen. Which is what the Cubs need. How much of a difference would Pomeranz have made? Probably not enough, but one you’d notice. Probably wouldn’t have given up that grand slam to Bryce, all I’m sayin’.

Let’s get to it.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Because as stated above, Pomeranz was absolutely nails once the Brewers turned him into a reliever for the season’s last two months. Pomeranz ran a 47% K-rate to go with a 7.6% BB-rate, good enough for nearly a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio. His ERA was 1.88 out of the pen, with a FIP of 1.92. He gave up 16 hits in 28 innings, and a slugging against of .278. And that was against hitters from both sides of the plate, as he struck out 45% of the righties he saw too.

Coming out of the pen, it was natural that Pomeranz’s already plus-fastball would see a boost because he was only facing three-to-six batters or so. And it did, jumping up to 95.1 MPH average in August and 96.4 MPH in September. You got a lot of lefties throwing 95 MPH around? No, you fucking don’t. They’re pretty rare.

Pomeranz only used two pitches out of the pen, with the other being his curve. That also saw a jump of three MPH as well when he started coming out of the pen exclusively, which can either be good or bad but is enough off of his fastball that’s it’s effective. Pomeranz was also able to almost double the amount of sweep it had across the zone out of the pen, which is a big reason why he was getting nearly a 50% whiff-rate per swing on it in September. Pomeranz’s curve and inclination to throw his fastball high in the zone mean they come out of the same “tunnel,” which is what everyone is looking for these days.

Last year wasn’t the first time he’s come out of the pen, doing so in Oakland and Boston as well before landing in San Francisco. His numbers have always jumped the right way as a reliever, so this is what he is.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): It’s hard to find too much wrong with Pomeranz, other than last year’s sample size, I guess, and any urge he might have to start again. You could certainly tell him he’d have a “chance” to spot start for the Cubs, and hell you might even mean it, but he’d have to be behind Chatwood and Alzolay on the depth chart.

Pomeranz is only 30, and only made 46 appearances total with starts included, so it’s not like a Cishek situation where he’s going to show up and have his arm turn into putty in August. At least you wouldn’t think. Pomeranz has had his injury issues though, but they were mostly in his days in Oakland and he’s bounced between pen and rotation unscathed the past couple years. Having a clear relief role probably can only help his durability.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Well, it might not be cheap. Pomeranz might actually end up the most prized reliever on the market given his performance in Milwaukee, up there with Will Smith and Will Harris and whatever other Will might be out there. MLBTR has him pegged at getting a two-year deal for $16M. The Cubs might be cautious throwing that much money again at only a recently-turned reliever after getting burned by Brandon Morrow. But Pomeranz doesn’t have the disastrous injury history that Morrow did, isn’t coming off throwing every game in the World Series, and quite frankly is a better bet. MLBTR has the Cubs going after Will Harris for about the same price, but fuck that. If you’re going to do that, Pomeranz is 30 and not 35 like Harris is. Harris also added an extra month of work on his frame this season. Harris also is more of a weak-contact guy, and the Cubs need more fire and brimstone out of their pen which they didn’t have last year. Adding Pomeranz would provide you that, along with the Wick Brothers, Chatwood and his upped velocity out of the pen, maybe Alzolay, maybe Duane Underwood (or by some prayer Dillon Maples ever figures it out because I’ll never let go). That’s even before you get to whatever Kimbrel is going to be. That’s a lot of angry coming out of the pen, and I want all the angry out of the pen I can get.

Baseball

Stop Acquiescing To These Capitalist Pigs

By Sam Fels 3293 0

I’m gonna take a break from the Cubs offseason wishlist to address something I’ve seen far too much of the last week.

Every day I open Twitter or Facebook, which I recognize is the start of the problem right there but it’s pretty much unavoidable given what I do, and I see someone–and frequently people I know personally–say something like, “I’ve come to the conclusion/place/idea that I’m ok with the Cubs trading Kris Bryant if…”

What comes after the “if” doesn’t matter, because absolutely no one should ever be ok with the Cubs trading Kris Bryant. It should be the kind of thing that makes you consider trading in your fandom, although I guess if we’re all still here after the Addison Russell mishegas and Fredo Ricketts’s Trump fundraisers, we’re never going to go away.  Which is exactly why they bought the team and exactly what they’re counting on, so I realize I’m pissing into the wind here. Save your breath.

Still, it’s the kind of thing that should have a fanbase in complete revolt. The fact that you have basically been conditioned to shut up and take it a symptom of what’s wrong with baseball right now, and really the country as a whole (but we’ll leave the latter out of it for this).

Here’s a list of players that would be an acceptable return for Bryant:

Cody Bellinger

Walker Buehler

Mookie Betts

Juan Soto

Christian Yelich (and that’s not a gimme)

Ronald Acuna

Mike Trout

Maybe Alex Bregman

We’ll throw Jacob deGrom on there to be nice. And that’s it. And none of those names are coming back for Bryant.

And yet there’s a growing faction of Cubs fans that are somehow convinced that trading Bryant is some version of four-dimensional chess that only Theo can see but they don’t want to admit they can’t see it because that would just mean they’re merely a peon. It’s not. It’s not even close. The idea of trading Bryant is merely an acceptance that the uber-wealthy Ricketts family don’t want to pay a player what he’s earned in two years’ time.

This isn’t about some “schism” between Bryant or Scott Boras and the Cubs. There’s no such thing. Pay him the most money, and he’ll be a Cub for life. This isn’t hard, and yet everyone wants to code this into some sort of larger puzzle. Again, it’s simple greed. The Ricketts want to keep more and more of your money and they certainly don’t want to have to give it to “labor.” They’re the stars after all, not Bryant and Rizzo and Baez. After all, they’re the only owners to bring a World Series to the Northside. And don’t you forget it.

The idea of some “grand plan” or “advanced thinking” is merely what they use to poison your water. If they can convince you that moving Bryant is actually the “smart” thing to do, because they’ll never be able to afford everyone, then you might not notice what an utter travesty this would be. This isn’t the NHL or the NFL where there’s a hard cap and you do get punished for producing a bevy of good players. You can pay whatever you want.

And if you somehow believe that the luxury tax would cost the Cubs or the Red Sox or Yankees or Dodgers living in the black, and you’d have to be the most gullible doofus on the planet to believe that or the Ricketts kids would have to be the stupidest people on the planet and the worst business people in history (and they might be!), remember the luxury tax is just another instrument of greed imposed by other owners who simply want money for free. It’s the Bob Nuttings and Derek Jeters and descendants of Bud Selig of the world not wanting to have to put a good product on the field consistently, which they easily could, to turn massive profits. It’s about bleeding their cities and fellow owners dry for money they’ll never have to earn. And yet all the owners go along with it because they’re raking in the cash too, and as long as it’s not going to the players, they’re just fine with that.

There is simply no way the Cubs can trade Kris Bryan and be better next year. And it should be about next year. You already went through the rebuild. And you go through those things to get a player like Kris Bryant, because they come around once a generation. You hoard those prospects in trades and spins at the international pool and make all those draft picks in the hopes you find a Kris Bryant. You don’t find one and then just decide to cash in and find another one. That’s not how this works.

The idea that the Cubs have to look forward to the future in any way is wool being pulled over your eyes to justify the Ricketts not having to spend to keep this team together. I’m sure if you got Theo in a private conversation at a bar and pumped him full of two or three beers he’d tell you he’d hand Bryant $37M a year tomorrow and wouldn’t look back. He’s not being allowed to. Because the Ricketts, one of the more born on third broods in the world, think they know better because they’re in the Lucky Sperm Club. Or they just want to keep more money for themselves.

They’re obviously not alone. The Red Sox, a team that has had their own channel for a long time now and one of the biggest brands in North American sports and the most expensive ticket in baseball, don’t want to pay Mookie Betts what he’s earned even more than Bryant. It’s not because they can’t, they’ve just decided they don’t want to., And they’ll tell you whenever they hire their new GM that he’ll lead the way in modern baseball thinking and trading Betts will be a part of that. That a team can run more efficiently than just ponying up $30M or more to players, who again, have more than earned it. They’ll tell you they need to get under the luxury tax threshold. They won’t tell you why, and no one will ask. Because the Red Sox and every team like them would absolutely turn a profit with a $300M payroll. They just don’t want to.

(I should admit that if the Red Sox payroll trimming allows the transfer budget for Liverpool to sign Kylian Mbappe next summer, then I’m all for it).

The Cubs are built to win now, and easily could win again in 2020 with as simple as one or two moves. And that’s with Kris Bryant, who is comfortably a top five player in baseball. If you somehow believe he’s perma-crocked at age 27, then again I can’t help you. Maybe hiring a new medical team that doesn’t send him out there every day with a knee that sounds like a Crunch bar would be a start to making all the non-believers see again.

As baseball is intertwined with America, this is just another symptom of the sickness. A group of barely qualified, probably barely literate rich kids tell you they can run a business more “efficiently,” which only means they can do it more cheaply and skimp on the actual workforce. That’s all trading Kris Bryant would be. And I don’t give a flying fuck what prospects he could bring back. We did that in 2011 and 2012 and 2013. That was then. I don’t care about 2022 or 2023 or 2024. The Cubs are here and now and anything they tell you about restocking the system or looking toward the future is utter horseshit. It’s a smokescreen. It’s meant to blind you to what’s really going on, which is unadulterated greed.

Imagine the Cubs trading Ryne Sandberg in 1986. If you’ve been around here a while, remember when the Hawks struggled in 2012 and some floated the idea of trading Patrick Kane for Ryan Goddamn Miller? Remember how we laughed everyone out of existence on that one? Two Cups, one Conn Smythe (undeserved, but still), one Hart Trophy later and looks even dumber now, doesn’t it (if we ignore all the off-ice being a monster stuff for a second)?

Trading Bryant would be no less galactically stupid or destructive.

Don’t fall for it. Don’t talk yourself into it. Don’t convince yourself you can see the logic. None of it is there. They’re only pretending it’s there so you won’t see what’s actually there. Don’t let them think you’re that stupid. That’s what they’re literally banking on.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, Or We Can Build A Tree – No, Screw You AJ, We’ll Take Zack Wheeler

By Sam Fels 1294 0

Earlier today, our comrade and Sox correspondent AJ wrote up why and how the Pale Hose should be interested in Zack Wheeler to boost the Sox rotation that needs it. But here’s the thing: no one cares about the White Sox, and really everyone’s energy should be put into putting the Cubs back among the elite of MLB (THE! ELITE! THE THE ELITE!). And I don’t mean just us here. I mean everyone in the world. Do you really want to live through another season of the Cardinals boasting about their geniusness when they were essentially a mediocre team that had everything fall into its lap? Of course you don’t. No one wants that. And the only person who minds the Twins winning the AL Central again is Fifth Feather, and he’s a miserable little man living in his hovel and laughing at all of you constantly. He doesn’t like you, never will, so why should you do anything for him? Exactly.

So let’s get Wheeler to the Northside instead.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: AJ laid it out, but basically Wheeler is the youngest available and realistic starting pitcher on the market. Stephen Strasburg is not walking through that door (and the Cubs might and probably should be gunshy about signing any pitcher out of a World Series team who has gone longer on innings than ever before, given how their Brandon Morrow and first year of Darvish experiences worked out). Gerrit Cole is not walking through that door. I’d love it if one of them did, but it’s not going to happen. Funny how Cubs and Sox fans are dealing with the same thing in that sense, no?

That doesn’t mean Wheeler is exactly young, as he’ll turn 30 in May of next season. But the rest of the Cubs rotation is old, as so will Kyle Hendricks and Lester, Q, and Darvish are over 30. Adbert Alzolay won’t be ready for the rotation this year, if ever, and the Cubs just have to get younger there.

While Wheeler doesn’t have the strikeout numbers of some, he’s been pretty solid in that category. And while the injuries are a worry, more encouragingly is that Wheeler’s stuff seems to be getting better the farther he’s gotten away from his TJ surgery. Look at his four-seam velocity:

Or the vertical drop on his curve:

Or the sweep of his slider:

So that’s all very encouraging. If you want to go by spin-rate, both his curve and slider have picked up spin-rate from 2018 to this past one. So while he did miss two and a half seasons thanks to injury, that’s also wear and tear he hasn’t piled up. So the fear of his stuff drying up in his early 30s isn’t as high as it might be, and he appears to be on the upswing you might have expected at ages 26-28, had he a clean bill of health.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): As AJ said, the injury worries are still there. But he made 29 starts in 2018 and 31 this year, and really just being around 30 is basically what you expect of any starters but the top echelon these days. With the presence of Chatwood and hopefully Azolay in the pen and both being stretched out enough to go multiple innings now, the Cubs can absorb a pitcher or two that don’t make the post 33-35 times per year. And Alec Mills and Colin Rea are lying around as well.

There’s another slight worry, and that’s his ERA-. That’s league-adjusted, and it didn’t love Wheeler last year, giving him only a 98 where 100 is average. It was much more kind to him in ’18 with an 87. The reason probably is that Wheeler gave up a lot more hits in 2019, 46 more in just 13 more innings. Some of that is pure luck, as Wheeler’s BABIP rose to .311 from .279. But the latter number is more the outlier as Wheeler has a career BABIP of .300 on the nose. Wheeler’s hard-contact rate against and his exti velocity both saw a tick up this year. But as we keep saying, whose didn’t? Among starting pitchers, Wheeler was in the top-10 in average exit-velocity against. And as I’ve pointed out, the stuff seems to be getting better.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: MLBTR has Wheeler getting $20M for five years from the Phillies, because the Arrieta signing has gone so well, Nick Pivetta turned into Grover, Aaron Nola really struggled in the season’s last month. You don’t think of Wheeler as a $20M pitcher, but given his last two years that’s probably what he is. If you go by the last two years cumulative, he’s got the same WAR as Patrick Corbin had. He’s the same age as Nathan Eovaldi was last year, with some of the same injury concerns, and Eovaldi got $17M a year to sit on a trainer’s table in Boston.

MLBTR lists half the league as possible suitors, because again, why wouldn’t you want a plus pitcher on your team. That’s only going to drive his price up. But still, he’s going to get a salary a class below Strasburg and Cole. And the Cubs will have some $30M coming off the books when Lester’s and Quintana’s deals are up. Because of the bargain they’ll still be getting Hendricks at, they can splurge a bit in another spot.

And the Cubs could use another pitcher with really good stuff. That’s the kind of thing that matters in October, and this is still a team that should keep in mind how to negotiate 11 bonus wins after the 162.

Fetch. And AJ smells anyway. You don’t want to play in front of him, Zack.