Everything Else

It’s Movement, But Is It Just Deck Chairs?

By Sam Fels 1953 0

Well, let’s state this at the top. If you take the non-NHL quality defensemen out of the equation–or at least the ones who aren’t worthy of a top-six most nights–and the Hawks were to open the season with some iteration of Keith, Maatta, Murphy, de Haan, Jokiharju, and Gustafsson on the blue line, it would be better than they ended with. I don’t know that it would be good, but it would be better. I also highly doubt that’s the plan.

So let’s start here:

This is true. Now everyone knows I don’t like Maatta at all, but I do like de Haan. And the Hawks do need to get better at actual defending without the puck. These two…well, at least de Haan, are improvements on that from Dahlstrom and Forsling and Koekkoek. And if this were Quenneville, you’d see the actual layout. These free safeties would be paired with the more free-wheeling Keith, Jokiharju (maybe?) and Gustafsson (if only he had wheels to be free).

But this isn’t Wayne’s basement. This is Colliton, whose “system” isn’t really dependent on positioning and angles, but on harassing and chasing all over the zone. At least that’s what we’re led to believe. Is that changing? Being tweaked? Sure, de Haan helps no matter what, but blocking more shots isn’t the problem. Well, it’s not THE problem. It’s stopping those shots from being taken at all.

Oh were you now?

Because what I saw was some shitty goddamn metrics whose specific task is to tell us what kind of transition team you were. And who’s getting this team up the ice now to avoid all those shots against again? In theory, de Haan is the perfect partner for Jokiharju to show off whatever transition and offensive flair he has (which I have to be convinced is there at all). So there’s one. It’s not really Keith’s wheelhouse anymore, and it probably never was. Maybe in a lesser role Keith can do some of that the way he used to, but then you’re implying someone can take the major minutes. That person is not here. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to be here anytime soon, unless you believe that absolute most in Adam Boqvist. And brother, I want to see the world the way you do if that’s the case.

The Hawks still have this “logjam” on defense which again, is just a clogged toilet. In any rational world. Koekkoek, Dahlstrom, and Seabrook don’t even enter this discussion. The first two are in Rockford, the last one is eating pressbox popcorn most nights (and almost certainly way too much of it, topped with carnitas). So how do you solve that?

One rumor or feeling is that Murphy will go. But slotting in de Haan for Murphy is at best the very definition of a lateral move, except you’ve gotten older, more expensive, a touch slower, and with the same injury and health concerns. As always, it depends on the return, but to me that just keeps your defense spinning its wheels.

Gustafsson, given his numbers and contract should have as much if not more value for this season to a team, and if you really believe in Jokiharju’s offensive upside he can do most of what Gus did on the power play. And he might be a better weapon there in some ways, given that he’s right-handed and could one-time Kane’s passes from the boards. But that’s another hole to be filled, and you don’t have the answers.

Again, nothing about this solves the long-term outlook of the top pairing. Now, you could sit here and say the last three Cup champs didn’t have a real top-pairing d-man other than John Carlson and the one year Kris Letang was healthy. But all those teams featured four 1b-2b d-men. How many do the Hawks have right now? Murphy maybe? The absolute best version of Jokiharju? Can Keith claim that anymore? de Haan now but in a year or two? Boqvist really?

The Hawks passed on solving a big portion of this by not drafting Byram, which is fine if Dach is really their top of the board guy. They passed on this in the short term by not making an offer for Subban or Trouba. But now how is this solved in the next three years? Do you see a path? Little hard, isn’t it? Seems like a lot is riding on the very slight shoulders of Boqvist.

It’s good that they recognize the problems. And it’s good that they’re trying to do something about it. It’s good they’ve been aggressive. My fear is that it all signifies nothing, though.

Everything Else

Well, It’s A Start – Hawks Acquire Calvin de Haan

By Matt McClure 3031 0

Earlier in the day, friend of the program Jay Zawaski wrote and went on air with Laurence Holmes stating that the Hawks were going to look to the trade market to improve their historically bad blue line, and threw out the names of either Justin Faulk or Calvin de Haan from Carolina, and the Hawks have now acquired the latter in exchange for Anton Forsberg and Gustav Forsling, both of whom are restricted free agents.

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18–’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Manning

By John Pullega 2156 0

Motherfucker.

Diving into the 2018 free agency pool for defense was never going to go swimmingly for the Blackhawks. Sure, there were rumblings about John Carlson’s availability, but even if he hadn’t re-signed in Washington, paying him $8 million per over a two-term presidency was neither realistic nor wanted, given all the griping we’ve done about Seabrook. Calvin de Haan may have been nice, but he ended up in Carolina for $4.55 million per over four years. Thomas Hickey also could have maybe been a thing, but the 2007 #4 overall pick signed with the Islanders at $2.5 million per over four years. Once those three came off the board, you’d have thought the Hawks would scrape the bucket for a PTO guy like Franson to throw maybe $1 million at.

Instead, the Hawks went out and gave a two-year, $2.25 million per contract to Brandon Manning, a PTO talent at a Thomas Hickey price. ARE YOU HAVING FUN YET?

2017–18 Stats

65 GP – 7 G, 12 A

50 CF%, 45.6 oZS%

Avg. TOI 17:57

A Brief History: First off, fuck this guy. Brandon Manning spent most of his junior career sucking, and in an effort to get noticed, he—in his own fucking words—”fought nine or 10 times that year and stuck up for my teammates and made some big hits.” Jesus Christ bare-assed on the cross, Stan Bowman and Joel Quenneville actually called Brandon Manning and told him, “We need a guy who doesn’t really score and can play physical.” Just keep giving Q the biddy, StanBo, it’s worked so fucking well in the past. Really good start here.

Manning went undrafted before latching on in Philadelphia—a place nothing less than perfect for a booger-eating buffoon whose calling card was protecting grown men on skates from other grown men on skates—in 2012. He spent most of his career with the Flyera doing nothing aside from tripping and breaking the collarbone of Connor McDavid in 2015, allegedly telling McDavid that he hurt him on purpose during a game in 2016, recanting when McDavid talked about it publicly, then getting his ass punched in by the aptly named Patrick Maroon as retribution in 2017. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS SIGNING?

In his first two full years, Manning spent most of his time in the offensive zone not contributing offensively. Last year was a bit different. He spent just 45.6% of his time in the offensive zone but contributed a career high 19 points. He broke exactly even at 50% on the CF% front. That’s somewhat encouraging, especially since he played most of his time next to living ghoul Radko Gudas and his aircraft carrier forehead.

But as we are wont to do, once you dig into the fancier stats, things look less than good. His xGF% (expected goals for percentage) was 48.89, which means that Manning’s opponents were expected to score more often when Manning was on the ice than the Flyera were. The closest Blackhawks comp Manning had in this category was Jordan Oesterle (49.00), who, as we all know, is one of the suckiest sucks who ever sucked on defense.

Further, his Rel xGF% (relative expected goals for percentage) was -2.22, which means Manning brought the likelihood of the Flyera scoring a goal down about 2% while he was on the ice. The closest Blackhawks comp from last year is Jan Rutta (-2.24).

And fuck it, let’s go even deeper, because the Hawks brass obviously couldn’t be bothered, as evidenced by the fact that they signed Brandon Motherfucking Manning. Manning’s HDCF%, which measures the percentage of high-danger chances for vs. high-danger chances against, was 47.31, good for second worst on the Flyera. This means that when Manning was on the ice, opponents were more likely to take shots from high-danger zones. High-danger shots are more likely to become goals. Since Manning himself doesn’t generate offense and apparently isn’t great at suppressing high-danger shots, it would seem that having him on the ice against anything but bottom lines is a recipe for disaster, especially if anyone but Crawford is in net.

So, he’s a combo of Oesterle without the KEEP FIRING ASSHOLES mentality and Rutta. And all this for just $2.25 million a year for two god damn years. Whose loins aren’t frothing?

It Was the Best of Times: Best case, Manning becomes part of a trade package for Erik Karlsson. Or, with contract negotiations for Darnell Nurse reportedly breaking down, they do Hall for Larssen II with Manning for Nurse. Barring those miracles, Manning plays fewer than 10 games because Jokiharju pulls a DeBrincat and makes it impossible not to play him. In the time he does play, Manning puts three or four points up and wins a fight or two, and the Hawks can trade him for something not called Brandon Manning. If he can’t be traded (he can’t), Quenneville shocks us all by learning what a sunk cost is and makes him a consistent healthy scratch.

It Was the BLURST of Times: We cannot stress enough how asinine this signing is. The fact that he was signed at all is a worst-case scenario. But he’s here now, he’s going to play, it’s going to suck, and it’s up to us to imagine how badly it’s going to suck. Worst case, Manning slots with Seabrook on the second pairing, because Manning played Top-4 minutes in the playoffs for the Flyera last year, a series in which Manning tossed a 48.77 CF%, 35.83 xGF%, and a hilarious -14.88 Rel xGF% against the likes of Crosby and Malkin.

StanBo throws his entire dick into his pet theory that Manning has gotten better with age and is on the verge of a breakout. That doesn’t happen, of course, because Brandon Manning sucks and would be better served in the boxing ring having his dome caved in nightly like the palooka he is. He channels his inner John Scott and becomes an insufferable monolith, both on and off the ice. After serving as a $4.5 million paperweight in his two years here, Manning uses his money to buy and close Al’s so he can open a Wawa there.

Prediction: Brandon Manning is the most Tom Smykowski signing the Hawks have had since Jordan Oesterle. He spent most of his career doing much of nothing, couldn’t hack it on a team that started Radko Fucking Gudas with a straight face, then got a seven-figure settlement as Bowman (read: Quenneville) went drunk driving and smashed into him with a HOCKEY REASONS contract.

So, he’ll spend time on the Top 4 with Seabrook. He’ll be an unmitigated disaster at all times and still get looks over Jokiharju and Murphy because HE’S HARD TO PLAY AGAINST. He’ll stumble his way into 10 points and then be considered for an extension. We’ll get all sorts of think pieces about how much his teammates like him, yet none of his teammates will offer that thought without priming from whoever’s in charge of pushing that narrative that day.

Just burn the whole building down.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Everything Else

Trickling Down Into Some Tragic Casual Corner – Free Agency Shopping List: Calvin de Haan

By Sam Fels 1909 0

As we continue to take a tour of the NHL’s free agency market, we come to a d-man that has been rumored to be high among the Hawks’ wishlist. He’s also one that’s not going to get the pulse racing for any fans, and that just might be why he’s on the Hawks’ radar.

Short of trading for Justin Faulk or Erik Karlsson, the Hawks aren’t going to be able to find a top pairing d-man. Which means they can’t fashion a typical top pairing. Which doesn’t sound great, and it isn’t. But that doesn’t mean it has to be fatal. The Hawks might be better readjusting their sights to raising the floor of the blue line instead of the ceiling. The Caps just won a Cup with two pairs at the top that were basically the same. So while the Hawks might not have a your normal #1 and #2, maybe they can figure out three second pairings or something like it.

Nothing stands out about de Haan, other than he’s got some funky capitalization. He’s got decent size at 6-1, 198, but isn’t a plodding bruiser. For that size, he’s a plus skater though that doesn’t translate into dynamic offensive play. He probably would infuriate some in the Hawks’ front office by not playing to that size, but his skating ability and good eye for a first pass diffuses a lot of that. He’s not going to jump in the play and blast home slappers on the break, but he can spring the team the other way.

There also might be some diamond-in-the-rough possibility here. Last year, de Haan only played 33 games last year, and spent most of his season with Adam Pelech. Pelech is all kinds of promising but had some growing pains, and they were both playing under Doug Weight whose defensive system would be politely described as “anarchy if it was even that existent. Two years ago de Haan had to drag around the corpse of Denis Seidenberg for a whole season. If you go back three seasons when he was paired with a still useful Travis Hamonic, he was a pretty useful player taking on top assignments for a playoff team. He wasn’t dominant possession-wise but ahead of the team-rate with the hardest assignments. It’s been a while, but it’s still there.

de Haan is only 27, so he’s not out of his prime yet. As for cost, he made $3.3M against the cap last year, and coming off an injury-ravaged season he might be hard-pressed to get more than that. There’s also plenty of other mid-range defensive options for teams, which also might keep his price down, like Toby Enstrom, Mike Green, Jack Johnson, John Moore, and others. He’s certainly not getting more than $4M, which the Hawks can fit.

It’s still something of an odd fit. de Haan is lefty but has played the right side, so you could conceivably pair him with Keith. He’s certainly got the mobility to cover for the mobility that Keith has lost. If he doesn’t play there, he could play with Murphy though it would lack a little get up and go, though might look something like his pairing with Hamonic from the past. But then there’s no one to play with Keith, without another move. Conceivably you could pair him with Gustafsson if you’re buying Goose as a top four on this team, but boy is that a leap.

It’s not the sexiest option, but it’s an option.