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Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Preview/Subway Platform Singalong: If You’re Gonna Insist

By Sam Fels 1629 0

vs.

RECORDS: Coyotes 34-29-5   Hawks 29-30-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THEY CALL THEM THE DESERT DOGS: Five For Howling

The Hawks are going to tell you they’re not done yet. They are, but we’ll excuse them if it makes doing their jobs easier if they believe it’s for something. So with the Yotes on the schedule twice, the Avs on the schedule twice, and the Canucks on their once in the next two weeks, the Hawks can at least make things passably interesting by winning all of those games, as well as finding a way to steal two points out of either Montreal or Toronto. Then we’ll just where they are, but that’s that kind of run it’s going to take. And no overtime bullshit, in the words of Cuervo Jones.

It starts tonight with the second visit of the Arizona Coyotes, who are sitting right on the shoulder of the Minnesota Wild in the last playoff spot, one point with one game in hand. If results go their way tonight they will wake up in the morning in the playoffs. It’s certainly not what you were expecting.

So how did they get here, with this beautiful house and beautiful wife? The headline is Darcy Kuemper, who is the latest goalie to find himself in the desert. Since the turn of the calendar he’s been unconscious, with a .925 SV% and having won nine of his last 10 starts. When you’re getting that goaltending, you don’t have to do too much else. Which is good, because the Coyotes don’t really.

They’re a middling possession team, and still have been since Kuemper went supernova. Even in the last month their in the bottom half of the league in Corsi and scoring chances and shooting-percentage. It’s Kuemper pulling an Atlas act for the most part. What they do have is just enough pieces to get just enough goals and just enough speed to make things uncomfortable for teams, especially ones as slow as the Hawks are. There’s Keller on the first line, Crouse and Archibald on the second, Galchenyuk on the third, and Vinnie Bag O’ Donuts on the 4th. All have 10 goals or more, along with Brad Richardson‘s 16, and though none are stars (there’s still hope for Keller) there’s competence everywhere. No black holes, as it were.

The only true star is on the back end in Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has combined wonderfully with Niklas Hjalmarsson. They take the hardest shifts in terms of place and opponent, and they still turn the ice over. It’s infuriating. Alex Goligoski has apparently gotten over just a rotten start to his Yotes career the past two years, with the help of possible-stalwart Jakob Chychrun and his missing vowels. Having Jason Demers on your third-pairing is a real treat, and this is the understated strength of the team. They’re not the Hurricanes or anything, but they’re a hell of a way ahead of the Hawks in that category.

For the Hawks, they’ll basically aim to keep things as they’ve been. Corey Crawford will get a chance to build on what was his easiest start of the year, as will the Hawks on that defensive effort. The only other change you might see is Slater Koekkoek in for either Dahlstrom or Forsling, but even that isn’t all that likely.

As strange as it may sound, the Yotes are a tougher match up for the Hawks than the Stars. Whereas Dallas has really nothing below the top two lines, the Coyotes at least have more speed than that. Galchenyuk, Richardson, Hinostroza, Fischer are all lurking in the bottom six, and the thought of Michael Grabner bearing down on Seabrook’s side at any point is one that will start to bend the dimensions in your mind. While they’re not lethal, they have potential, and with the way Kuemper is going they don’t need a lot. Then again, the Yotes are in St. Louis tomorrow night and may save Kuemper for that, and the Hawks could benefit from getting a look at a backup (Calvin Pickard) for the second straight game. The Blues one is clearly the harder one. We’ll see later on.

If they’re going to insist on doing something silly, then it started on Thursday. It’s going to be near impossible, but why should anything else make sense this season?

 

Game #69 Preview Suite

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Game #66 – Hawks 2, Sharks 5: This Is The Best We Can Do, Folks

By Sam Fels 1928 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

The one bonus of covering a bad team is that you rarely run out of material. But we’ve come to a point where I’ve run out of things to say. I’ll you need to know about this Hawks team is that they really did try tonight. They fought back twice against a Cup contender. And the Sharks barely got out of second gear, never looked truly troubled, and seemed always assured they would run out easy victors, And they did. They turned it on for like eight minutes, got the two goals they needed, and that was that.

So now that the Hawks have in fact sought and found their own water level, the question is what to do with the rest of the year. The truly progressive team, the one that sees things as they are (and no NHL team has ever done this before so they won’t either) would basically start scratching Toews, Keith, Seabrook and even DeBrincat and Strome semi-regularly for the last 16 games. You’ll never be able to scratch Kane when he’s competing for a Hart Trophy, unless you want a full-out mutiny on your hands.

But right now you’re on pace to draft 7th, which doesn’t do you a whole lot of good for next year at least. You already know you have something with Strome and Top Cat, and there’s no one else to develop. So why bother?

But they won’t do that, so let’s get through the rest of it…

The Two Obs

-I guess maybe it says something that after all his vets went to the zoo on him yesterday in LA, Coach Cool Youth Pastor saw them actually try tonight. Then again, knowing they were playing the Sharks, they probably were just afraid of getting totally embarrassed again like San Jose did here at the United Center. There are far more questions about the coach than answers.

-Brandon Saad was replaced on Daydream Nation’s wing by Chris Kunitz, and he played the game like he was sulking over it. And honestly, I don’t blame him. He didn’t do anything wrong yesterday, and watched his spot given to a corpse. And then Kunitz contributed to the back-breaking goal by forcing a pass on an odd-man break that was somehow both behind Toews and between his legs. They told you they thought this was a playoff team.

-Brendan Perlini was tried with The Otter Boys, and they actually had one of their rare plus-possession games. I guess this is worth more of a look, but Perlini is starting to give off serious Jack Skille waves in that he’s fast and can shoot and can do literally nothing else.

-After he couldn’t locate a fuck to give with FBI support yesterday and then airing out his coach in the press, Duncan Keith got completely turned into cat vomit for the Sharks’ first goal. It’s not the best look. He also had a 34% Corsi tonight.

Keith’s number will get retired. And I’ll cut him as much slack as possible, But you can’t stand in defiance of your team and coach publicly when you’re playing as badly as this. He needs to pick a lane, which is something he hasn’t been able to do all season.

-A questions we’ll need to ask the rest of the season is who exactly Colliton has made better. The first answer will be Strome, but you could easily point to playing with greater talent for the main reason for his signs of life. The defense is worse, and whatever forward doesn’t get to share time with Kane either at evens or on the power play has at best stalled out.

-Oh, and the Hawks took a reaching, neutral zone penalty on Michael Haley, because that’s someone you really have to stop steaming into your zone. That’s recognition at its highest.

-Brent Seabrook and Gustav Forsling ended up with 60%+ possession marks. But Seabs topped that off with a no-look, behind the back pass to no one leading to the empty-netter. Bottomless Pistol Pete out here, motherfuckers.

-Back when I used to do these after too much imbibing I didn’t have to switch glasses. This is growing up.

Fuck the rest of it. Onwards…

Everything Else

Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks Preview/Brunch Fight: Let The Children Boogie

By Sam Fels 1696 0

vs.

RECORDS: Stars 30-25-5   Hawks 26-27-9

PUCK DROP: 2pm

TV: WGN

FROM A DC-9 AT NIGHT: Defending Big D

It’s such a weird year. The Hawks lost the opening half of their showcase weekend, and yet that’s probably the best game they’ve played since…man, it’s hard to say. There have been periods here and there but overall, you could argue it was New Year’s Day. And they lost that one, too. But they don’t base the standings on aesthetics and who played better. All that matters is what you got out of it. The Hawks got nothing but a handful of themselves, which means they’d better get something out of this one if they’re serious about chasing until the end of the year.

From the Hawks’ perspective, they’ll get a couple of returnees. Brent Seabrook looks likely to return from his “abdominal” problem (and this is where we snigger about any trainer being able to find his abdominals), and Carl Dahlstrom should be over his case of the plague. Marcus Kruger also should be available after missing the third period on Friday. The first two mean that Henri Jokiharju will return to Rockford, and that’s a whole other discussion we’ll have soon at a podcast near you. So the defense will look like you’ve become accustomed to, and any change in the forwards is Perlini coming in for either Kunitz or Hayden or possibly Sikura, but that would be unfair to the kid.

Right, the Stars. Like any team stuck in this goo around the wildcards, this is not how they pictured their beautiful house. They’ve lost five of seven, and all of those without Ben Bishop who has been hurt. But he returned yesterday against the Canes, which means the Hawks will get Anton Khudobin today. Khudobin has been an excellent back-up this season, but having to take the main role broke his reserves, and he’s surrendered 14 goals in his last four appearances. Perhaps getting the break with Bishop back is all he needs to throw 35+ saves at the Hawks today, but let’s hope not.

The Stars are kind of like the Wild, in that they surrender more of the opportunities than they get but as you rate the chances better and better so do their numbers. So they create better chances than their opponents, and are happy to let them let fly from the hinterlands. Their problem of late as been they’ve been the anti-Motley Crue, they can’t get their heart kickstarted. They have a league-low 26 goals in the 1st period, and of late their stout defense has leaked first, which has them playing catch-up every game. As they were just playing some 20 hours ago or so, the Hawks would be wise to try and jump on them from the word go and see just how much they have in the tank to catch up again.

As always with the Stars, despite the bleating from their CEO, they’ll go as far offensively as Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn can carry them. They’re on different lines at the moment, but no one else on this team is scoring. The Stars simply haven’t gotten enough from anyone else you look at other than John Klingberg, who was hurt for a chunk. Further complicating matters for Gang Green is that Alex Radulov was sick yesterday and missed out, and his status for today is up in the air. Without him, there is a whole lot of not much here.

It’s not that the Hawks would be charred if they don’t get a regulation win here, but the coals would be certainly heating up. But if they do get the win, the Ducks and Kings are lined up next, and that’s four points they’re begging you to take. You’re also getting a team on the second of a back-to-back that had to travel, while the Hawks were simply waiting around. Quite simply, this is a game you have to have. So go get it.

 

Game #63 Preview Suite

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Game #62 – Avalanche vs Hawks Preview/Shoot Interview: Well, It Is And It Ain’t

By Sam Fels 1790 0

vs.

RECORDS: Avalanche 25-24-11   Hawks 26-26-9

PUCK DROP: 6:30 (for some reason?)

TV: NBCSN Chicago

COULDN’T GET MUCH HIGHER: Mile High Hockey

It’s at the top that I’m supposed to tell you this is an awfully big weekend at the United Center. The Hawks will have two games with four points on offer against direct rivals for the wild card spots. Win both, and you’re entrenched in the race. Lose both and you may have lost touch before March even hits. Split them in some fashion and nothing is solved and the current feeling continues. In that context, yes, this shapes up as a pretty exciting and important weekend.

But this being hockey, and this being us, and this being these Hawks, it’s hard to remain in just that context. Because though this is a playoff race, it is only so because the competitors are standardbreds and not thoroughbreds. They are the fan chosen to be inhaled by The Freeze in the middle of the 5th. It’s the JV. And you can choose to enjoy the silliness of it, which we are, but even that intrude on the heaviness you want to project onto these two games. It’s hard to treat something as important when you know that at the base it’s kind of absurd (says the wrestling fan?).

Either way, the Hawks and Avs are tied with Arizona, one point behind the Wild, who last night couldn’t get the Rangers to accept the two points they were desperately trying to foist upon them in their quest to make the biggest splat at the end of the season. Whoever wins tonight vaults back into the wildcard spots (depending on what the Wild do in Detroit tonight). So whatever we may feel on the outside, those inside the ropes will ignore the absurdity and treat this as a four-pointer.

For the Hawks, the only change appears to be that Brent Seabrook is still a no-go, and thanks to Carl Dahlstrom being sick, Henri Jokiharju has been recalled. No word on whether he’ll play, but fuck, he’s here, and how much worse can he be than the plastic vomit you’ve been tossing out there anyway? The Hawks did give up 10 combined goals to the decidedly waddling Senators and Red Wings. The Hawks should paw at any dangling straw or piece of Laffy Taffy when it comes to their defense. Collin Delia appears to be getting the start, perhaps in the thought that he’s beaten the Avs twice before and maybe seeing their silly logo will trigger something within him. Or you don’t want to keep sending Ward out there for fear he’ll turn back into Cam Ward with more and more rolls of the dice. Or you don’t want Delia’s last NHL experience of the year to be getting pulled against the Senators. Whatever. The normal 4th line rotation will continue, and it doesn’t really matter how it shakes out.

The Avs have sunk to these depths and unlike the atmosphere around here, they are not pleased that they are still merely “in it.” On December 19th, the Avs were 19-10-6, and at least running into the penthouse of the Central to steal the appetizers from the Jets and Predators. Then they lost to the Hawks, and look what that did to them: they are 6-14-5 since, watching the Stars and Blues wave as they fall by, and for a brief moment, were marooned at the bottom of the Central.

The reasons aren’t hard to identify. While the top line of Mikko Rantanen–Nathan MacKinnon-Gabriel SapsuckerFrog didn’t exactly go “cold,” they weren’t being intergalactic warriors as they were before. They were just “very good.” But “very good” ain’t gonna cut the mustard when there’s almost nothing else on this team to back it up. On a given night, Carl Soderberg, or J.T. Compher, or Alex Kerfoot might hint at being legitimate secondary scoring. And on the next three you wouldn’t be able to find them with body-heat cameras. When the top unit isn’t doing magic tricks, the show is closed. That’s why you’ll see that troika split up tonight, as they’ve been put on three different lines the past two games. Which the Avs have won by a combined score of 10-1, so they roll in here with some confidence.

Combine that with both goalies going into the shitter for a bit. Semyon Varlamov tanked in December and January, and when given the chance to usurp the top job, Phillip Grubauer fluffed his lines. Varlamov has recovered in February with a .919, and even just that might steady the ship enough for the Avs to recover and hold on loosely for the last spot in the West. Assuming their three big guns continue to BIG GUN.

The task in written form is easy for the Hawks tonight. Find a way to keep the Avs’ top three players down. It’s not easy when they’re now on three different lines, but also their collective dangers is watered down. Start with Mac K and work out from there. You can try to that through the Fight Fire With Fire method and use Toews’s line to do it. Or you use Marcus Kruger to do it, though if he’s centering the fourth line it’s clear that Coach Cool Youth Pastor has already made his choice. Colorado still does ok metrically when those three aren’t on the ice, but they have a hard time converting it into tangible results. Keep the MacRaLog from going for two or three or more, and you’ve basically got it.

It may not be heavy or important, but it is fun. Here we go.

 

 

Game #62 Preview Suite

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Why Are They Still Talking?

By Sam Fels 2800 0

This would be a good time for a confession. I don’t know what I want, people. Would I be happy if I never heard from Stan Bowman and John McDonough? I mean, maybe? Probably not. They have to talk at some point. And yet when they do the best reaction I can hope for is laughter. I also don’t know what it is exactly I want them to say. While Theo Epstein-like transparency would be nice, that hasn’t exactly worked out that well for Theo of late either.

But I also find it curious you can find in-depth interviews with both of them when the Hawks are in their only streak of looking like…well, barely competent. Should they lose the next five I wonder if we’ll hear from McDonough. I’m guessing no, at least until the announcement of some other useless event the Hawks have procured from the league. Anyway, Stan Bowman gave Tracey Myers of NHL.com some decent time, and we’re going to go through it piece by piece (much like Man On Fire).

On reports the Blackhawks will ask defenseman Duncan Keith before the trade deadline if he wants to stay in Chicago or waive his no-move clause and accept a trade to a contending team:

“I’ve been asked that since the report came out. What I say is the same thing: whenever we’ve had those types of discussions, I wouldn’t comment. It puts the player in a tough spot. I’m not going to get into whether we have or haven’t, will or won’t. The fair thing to say is, both of those guys (Keith and defenseman Brent Seabrook), we’ve played our best hockey in the last stretch when they’ve been playing together. I think [Keith and Seabrook] have been a pair for this last stretch when we’ve played well, and they’re playing well. That’s what we need from them right now.”

Well, huh? Here’s Keith’s CF% during these past eight games: 41.6%  scoring-chance share: 41.7%  high-danger chance share: 40.9. I’ll spare you what Seabrook’s numbers are, but I assure you they’re also burning piss. Oh, and the save-percentage these last eight games when Keith and Seabrook are out there? .989. But I’m sure they are totes responsible for that.

Again, I don’t expect Stan to shit on the first winning streak of the year or try and talk anyone out of getting excited (good seats still available!). But the fear is that they actually believe this shit. And it wouldn’t be a crime to say something to the effect of, “The results are nice, and the players have worked hard and stuck together to earn them, but there are still aspects of our game that need improvement. We’ve been lucky, but we can build on that.”

If you’ve watched this team most games, you see that Keith and Seabrook can’t get out of their own way (Seabrook couldn’t get out of a sloth’s way right now). Say, this strange, yellow, warm liquid on my ear must mean it’s raining!

On the report that the Blackhawks asked Seabrook to waive his no-move clause, something Seabrook said isn’t true:

“Same answer. The hard part is if I say, well that’s true, the next time you have to keep doing it. You shoot a few [reports] down, then if you decide not to comment on the other one, people think that’s the true one. That’s not always the case. I get it, I realize why the fans want to know. I just think it’s more fair to the players to not be put in that position. It’s unfortunate it went that way, but I realize that the world we live in now is that way. Reports become facts until proven otherwise. Sometimes it should be the other way. I don’t want to specifically comment, other than to say he’s played his best hockey lately and I hope he keeps it up.”

Not exactly a hard-denial, is it? Stan’s right here, that it does put the player in an awful position. Which…would be the exact reason a team would leak that sort of thing? Get the onus off of the organization? Just spitballin’ here. And again, if “this” is Seabrook’s best hockey–as he was an absolute hemorrhoid last night–then Stan knows exactly why these reports are surfacing/being leaked.

On the job done thus far by coach Jeremy Colliton, who took over after Joel Quenneville was fired Nov. 6:

“The biggest thing I can applaud him for is his disposition and positive approach, even in light of a tough start. He never got frustrated, never got down, didn’t allow our group to feel sorry for itself or get upset about things. We still aren’t near where we want to be, but we’ve made a lot of strides. When you start to see those things together, and I think the players are starting to now see and starting to get excited. It’s one thing to believe what someone’s telling you and you want it to work, but it’s not working. Now it’s starting to work, and they start to feel like, ‘wow, now I get it. Now I understand what he’s been saying.’ When you’re around our team, you can pick up there’s a good vibe around the guys. They’re excited and can’t wait to play the game.”

Again, there’s no reason to think Stan is going to hang out his chosen to guy to dry, and nor should he. And some of this is right. Colliton did stay positive, hasn’t singled out anyone, and basically kept his head down. The power play is better, as we keep saying.

But overall, the structure is still rotten. This team is still woeful defensively, and while the personnel will never allow it to be a good defensive team, we repeatedly point out changes that could be made to help it that aren’t being made. It’s fine if the guys are more excited because results happen to bounce their way for a couple weeks, but there is still very little to suggest that this is being built on a foundation made of anything other than sand. While the Hawks blue line is truly terrible, there are some equally terrible blue lines around that are keeping things a little tighter than the Hawks are. That’s because every team is better defensively than the Hawks. It doesn’t really HAVE to be like this.

Ok, Strome’s development can be credited to Colliton, I guess. But we need more than a few weeks of that, too. The idea that this is “starting to work” flies in the face of everything that’s happening on the ice aside from the goalies playing really well and more pucks going in than have been. And you saw last night what happens when one of the goalies doesn’t go Siegfried and Roy.

On assigning 19-year-old defenseman Henri Jokiharju to Rockford of the American Hockey League:

“Sometimes guys get sent down because they aren’t playing well, and sometimes they get sent down because of circumstances. In Henri’s case, it was more circumstantial. He’s played over 20 minutes every game in Rockford and that’s what we’re looking for. Our defense has evolved over the course of a year. We didn’t have [Gustav] Forsling and [Connor] Murphy at the start of the year. If they had been here, Henri may have been in Rockford the whole time. It’s not because he’s not deserving of the NHL; it’s a hard League to play as a teenage defenseman. I think there are only two teenage defensemen in the league (Rasmus Dahlin, 18, of the Buffalo Sabres and Miro Heiskanen, 19, of the Dallas Stars). When you get to be 20, 21, you see those guys filter their way in. They’ve gained experience at the AHL level, they’ve finished college, whatever they do. It’s a lot of pressure to put on a kid, and he’s not far away. We can bring him back at any point. It’s not disappointment; far from it. He’s exceeded my expectations with how well he’s played.”

This isn’t wholly incorrect either, but if you’re trying to sell me that Gustav Forsling would have kept Jokharju in the AHL at the start of the year had Forsling been healthy, I would use that as grounds for canning your sorry ass right then and there and calling it a love story. Gustav Forsling is Brendan Smith levels of bad, and those of you who have been around here for a while know that I don’t say that lightly. I think Smith is the worst player in the NHL and have since he came up, and I’m telling you Forsling is right there.

Stan is right on circumstances, though. Jokiharju is right-handed and the only Hawk capable of playing on the left and letting Jokiharju be aggressive and get up the ice and support him a bit is Connor Murphy, who was hurt and then didn’t play with him. While the numbers were promising with Keith, we saw far too often a teenager having to clean up #2’s messes all the time. The pairings with others were nothing short of a disaster. So on some level, I get it.

If Jokiharju does come back, it had better be to play with either Murphy on his off-side or Dahlstrom as a third-pairing. But the Hawks have some culpability here in not putting a very young player in the best possible place to succeed. I think that’s what Q was doing when he was here, and I think Q thought that Keith might adjust his game a bit to compensate. He didn’t, we saw what happened.

The interview goes on to talk about the Hawks prospects, and the Holy Troika of Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin get mentioned. And Stan should talk up these guys, because he’s going to have to trade one or two of them. All three will not fit on the roster in the next three years, unless Seabrook is bought out, Murphy traded, Gustafsson gets sold while the price is up (which should be happening now but whatever) and the Hawks add people for these kids to play with. But we’ll have all summer for that talk.

 

Everything Else

Look Who’s Talking

By Sam Fels 2198 0

I’m sure you’re surprised that in the middle of the team’s first winning streak in a season and a quarter (they last won five in a row or more in December of 2017), John McDonough pops up for an in-depth interview with The Athletic. That’s a little harsh on McD, who doesn’t hide totally when things are going poorly. But it also does seem a tad convenient.

The other caveat is that I’ve always thought it was folly to read too much into what McDonough has to say about on-ice issues. He has been, or may still be, involved in some decisions. And he is the boss. Whatever “plan” the Hawks have (and we’ll get to that), basically starts with him at least giving it the ok. That said, I doubt he could tell you what the difference is in defensive systems from Q to Jeremy Colliton is, or why this winning-streak is empty when you look at process. Still, his voice matters.

And there’s some real gobbledygook in here. Let’s go through it:

Well, you’ve got to feel better about where things stand now than you did four or five weeks ago, right?

Yeah, I feel better about it. We got off to a rough start. I recognize that this is a roller-coaster, that we’re going to have those ups and downs. But being tested like you were for seven or eight games where you’re down two or three goals, I learned a lot about our team. I learned a lot about our coaching staff. I learned a lot about our management. There was no finger-pointing. There were no alarmists. We rode it out. There was a sense that this could get worse before it gets better, and it did. But I don’t think we’re in a much different place. I’m really pleased with the five-game winning streak, that’s good to see. But this going forward, I think, is going to be all about the process as opposed to the plan. People want to know, what is the plan going forward, like there’s some master plan. I think it’s a really healthy process. I’m very proud of Jeremy (Colliton). He was put in a very tough situation, replacing a legend, an icon, an institution, a Hall of Famer, a classy guy that was a primary reason that we won three Stanley Cups. I’m very proud of the job he’s done and I’m excited about our future. Very optimistic about our future with Jeremy behind the bench.

Um, ok, but did you miss all that finger-pointing your GM did at your former coach? Does that count? Because he was pretty clear on it. It’s rare that finger-pointing comes in the signings and then discarding of actual players, but hey, the Hawks are cutting edge, remember?

Hey, it’s great your coach, who has been coaching on this continent for barely 14 months when you hired him, didn’t hang his players out to dry. Because that’s something he totally could have done without losing them forever. And you got lucky that your players didn’t do that to him, which they easily could have. Then again, let’s watch Duncan Keith’s play from that time and decide what that was about.

I have no idea what the “process as opposed to the plan” line is all about. The Hawks have never outlined any kind of plan. They can’t even decide what word they want to use to describe where a plan would go. Can you have a process without a plan? Isn’t a “process” executing a set “plan?” Then McDonough basically says that there isn’t a master plan–which, great–but that it’s a really healthy process. What in the ever-living fuck could that possibly mean? This is right up there with Stan Bowman’s assertion years ago about Marian Hossa returning from injury, “There’s no timetable, but he’s on schedule.”

I believed that this was a playoff team. I believed in our roster. But we’ve had circumstances to deal with. Corey’s been in net for, I think, a third of our games in the last year. There’s been a lot of roster turnover. 

Ok, but if you thought this was a playoff team, and you fired Quenneville because you didn’t think he was going to lead them there, why was there so much roster turnover? Did you think the old roster was playoff-worthy? Or this one? And you’re wrong on both counts anyway. But hey, sellout-streak!

No, because we weren’t there then. We weren’t there then. I was disappointed in last year, but I didn’t think and Stan didn’t think that, in fairness to Joel, that was necessarily the right time, either. And we get back to what we talked about before — what is the right time? Is it based on a losing streak? I think it’s more based on feel. There was a sameness that had crept in. So we made the change and I think we’re going in a good direction right now. But we don’t get caught up in the bounce that we have right now with the winning streak, and we ride out the tough times and we try to improve the team every day.

I just can’t buy this. The Hawks wanted to fire Q in the summer, and you know that because 15 games is never enough of a sample to decide it’s not working. You’re looking for an excuse to get where you wanted to anyway, but it allows you to do that after single-game tickets have gone on sale.

Also, and I don’t expect this to come from McD but I can only hope and pray that Bowman and Colliton know better, is that the “good direction” the Hawks are on now is really nothing more than a few good bounces. The process on the ice still sucks, and giving up over 90 shots tot the Canucks and Red Wings, whose players have to wear helmets off the ice too, is proof of that (which to be fair, came after this was published, but the trends were still there).

We want to be a playoff team and then once you get in, anything can happen. 

This is a garbage sentiment and a team that’s been plastering “One Goal” on our psyches for a decade should know better. The two 8-seeds in recent memory to make big runs were the Predators in ’17 and the Kings in ’12, and both were preseason favorites that underperformed for most of the regular season. They became what they should have in the spring. They didn’t “come from nowhere.” The idea that anyone can just get in and run the table is an old myth. Generally, you’ve got to be amongst the big boys consistently, even if that means finishing second or third in a division. Because that usually comes down to OT bounces anyway.

This is an organization that prided itself, and couldn’t wait to tell everyone, about the consistent greatness they were striving for. Not “We’re gonna roll the dice because hey, maybe it’s our day?” Think harder, Homer.

I think he’s smart enough to get the opinions of his group, and then he ultimately makes the final decision. And then we kind of talk about it and we go with his feel and his recommendations. 

So Stan is the final decision maker…until he runs it by you? That’s…not encouraging.

On Seabrook and Keith: I think both of them are very valuable members of the organization. I’m thrilled that they’re part of this. They’re decorated, potentially future Hall of Famers. They’ve been through a lot. And I’d like to see them be a part of the group that helps us surge again…(Seabrook) has had a brilliant career and he’s great in the locker room. He’s a terrific human being. I think he’s the ultimate leader. So yeah, it does bother me, because he really, really cares. But I am confident he’s going to be a part of this going forward.

Then why did reports of the team asking him to waive his NMC get out? That doesn’t happen on accident, especially with the Hawks. Obviously, McD isn’t going to come out and say, “Despite his accomplishments we have to get this bloated nacho graveyard off the roster immediately!” But look at this with any sort of critical eye and you see right through it.

On Quenneville: These are very tough decisions that are professional decisions, they’re not personal decisions. He and I spent a lot of time together. A lot of time. Didn’t agree on everything.”

I am dying to know what it was McDonough and Quenneville didn’t agree on. Please tell me the hockey arguments that went on here. I need this.

And how he handled it, how graceful he was in how he handled winning — he never pointed fingers or felt that the roster was inferior when we went through tough times.

Ask Connor Murphy about this one.

It’s McD’s job to try and say things without really saying anything. And there’s not much to be gained from the president decreeing much from the mountain top, because we can only hope he’s not that involved with what we really care about, the on-ice product. So much hinges on the summer. But this was some Grade-A funny shit at times.

Everything Else

Game #54 – Hawks 6, Oilers 2 – I Set Out Running but I Take My Time

By Rose Rankin 1908 0

It was worrisome for a minute, but then the Blackhawks remembered they were playing the Oilers, and their confidence that they weren’t the shittiest team in the league, or run by the biggest dumbasses in the league, or from the most miserable, cold location in the league managed to just overpower a confused Edmonton team, who also suddenly remembered they were the Oilers. By the end, all Run CMD could do was watch. To the bullets!

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– Things started well enough but then the last half of the first period went to shit for the Hawks. They took four straight penalties, some of which overlapped leading to 5-on-3s, and Leon Draisaitl was having his way with the Hawks, scoring two goals in about two minutes, both on power plays. The defense looked generally lost, and in particular Seabrook got absolutely smoked by Connor McDavid. I know that’s not shocking and shouldn’t even be news, but in real time it was ugly to watch.

– Prior to the penalties and the Hawks basically falling to pieces for a while, our favorite beneficiary of the Fels Motherfuck, Erik Gustafsson, potted his 11th goal of the year and it came…wait for it…on the power play. We talked about it on the podcast last night, and I’m telling ‘ya, someone is going to take Gus for a real defenseman and if the Hawks play their cards right, they can cash in off the results of this motherfuck. We’ll be waiting by the phone for the kudos and our share of the spoils.

– But enough of all that—five goals in one period! If it had been against any other team I wouldn’t have believed it. But this is the Oilers, and despite Ty Rattie have a good night with three shots, Draisaitl scoring twice and Connor McDavid being Connor McDavid, it still wasn’t enough. And once the Hawks rattled them with Hayden’s goal, a fourth-line goal that was the result of a quick passing play from Marcus Kruger early in the third, the Hawks just kept scoring at will. In fact is was a DLR in the span of one period, and Ken Hitchcock had no idea how to help his team respond. Which is hilarious, except when you think about a generational talent being wasted on this shit organization.

– And I have to say, I’m bummed FOR McDavid. Sure, he makes a shitload of money and no, I’m not actually losing sleep or anything, but it’s hard to see a game like this, and records like what the Oilers have, while also seeing his capabilities and not rue the fact they’re being so blatantly wasted in this mis-managed and poorly coached dumpster fire of a team.

– But before it sounds like this was just another example of the Oilers fucking up royally, let me state for the record that the Hawks got their shit together and played better as soon as the second period started. They came back from the first intermission being on the PK but killed off the last of that string of penalties, and they bounced back from being underwater in possession in the first period to a 60 CF% for the second. The Kane-Toews-Caligula line in particular had a number of strong shifts in the offensive zone. Ward had a highlight reel save against Rattie to keep it 2-1. They played WELL during the second and just carried that into the third, which is when it translated into goals.

– The second line looked really good tonight as well. They only scored one goal (only! We can say only one because there were so many!), but they had a 67 CF% and had strong shifts all night. And not only did Dominik Kahun get an assist on Strome’s goal, he got one of his own in the barrage later in the third period.

– You know I love to complain about the defense, but get this: every Hawks defenseman had a 50 CF% or better, and as a team they only gave up 27 shots tonight. Despite the incident of McDavid lighting Seabrook on fire, and some early struggles during the bad half of the first, this was actually a relatively competent defensive effort. Is this the end of days?

So here we are talking about the Blackhawks being three points out of a playoff spot. Let that insanity sink in. To be completely honest, I don’t think this is actually a playoff team, and what we’re seeing is them benefiting from shitty opponents, a good power play, Patrick Kane, and a large dose of luck. But whatever, they’re on a hot streak right now and are beating the teams they should be beating. So I’m not going to look the proverbial gift horse in the mouth, and let’s enjoy it while it lasts. Because it won’t last. Onward and upward!

Beer de Jour: Slalom King, Crystal Lake Brewing

Line of the Night: “The senior citizen behind the Oilers bench…” –Foley, attempting to throw shade at or be polite to Ken Hitchcock, I’m still not sure which…

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

The Seabrook Spiral

By Sam Fels 2429 0

By now, if you’re any kind of Hawks observer, you know the big news out of Saturday night had nothing to do with the Hawks’ win in OT over the Wild, which most likely will still be consigned to obscure trivia in a season to nowhere. It was Elliotte Friedman reporting on Hockey Night In Canada that the Hawks had asked Brent Seabrook to waive his no-trade clause, and that Seabrook had declined to do so.

There’s a lot to take out of this, perhaps more than it would be with most players, but I want to start with this: Considering how intelligence-agency tight-lipped the Hawks at least want to be, I don’t think this gets out there unless the Hawks want it to. Friedman might be the best reporter in the sport, and he would have ways around whatever firewalls and roadblocks the Hawks set up, but my spidey-sense tells me that’s not the case (admittedly, I have an overactive spidey-sense. The cost of the medication is overwhelming).

And to do so is certainly meant to poison the water around Seabrook. It’s easy to get mad at Seabrook, and I and everyone else at this blog have been guilty of it at times. His play has dropped off a cliff and then off another cliff, and quite simply it’s not all due to the ravages of time and mileage. We were commenting as early as 2013 that Seabrook looked sluggish and out of shape, and other than his brilliant renaissance in the spring of ’15, that’s been the case. Those preseason stories about “best shape of his life” were clearly meant to counter something. Still, the main complaint about Seabrook isn’t Seabrook himself, it’s his usage, which doesn’t fall on him. And this is probably meant to distract from that.

But let’s be clear. The NMC Seabrook has was earned by being a goddamn stalwart on three Cup teams (even if he was a main culprit for the lack of a fourth in ’14) as well as a organizational foundation. If Seabrook has decided he doesn’t want to either uproot his family from where they’ve been based or spend months away from them as they stay here in Chicago, that’s absolutely his right. The problem for Seabrook is this only ends one way.

While the leaking of his refusal to waive might turn more fans against him, it’s unlikely that Seabrook would ever get booed out of the building or something. This isn’t Canada. The memories are still fresh enough, and I can’t really recall Hawks fans of recent vintage ever singling out a player for ire. The team as a whole at times, sure. But never an individual. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on Twitter (@FelsGate). He’ll certainly face more scrutiny and questions from the press, but again, this isn’t Montreal and it’ll fade. And it won’t be all that heavy to begin with, even if the local press really has no love for Seabrook (and they don’t). This is another advantage of the Hawks quickly fading into the sporting background if they’re not good, and remember pitchers and catchers report in eight days and both teams in town are at least interesting.

But it will color things to whatever degree, because look at the difference in tone between this report and the one about Duncan Keith. The one about Keith from Pierre LeBrun was full of reverence. They will go to him. They will let him decide. They have no deals or talks in place, but they’ll ask what he wants, and so on. Seabrook it was just simple and landed with a thud. We asked, he refused. A lot less reverence there, it seems.

If the Hawks are getting this out there on purpose, and that’s just a strong hunch but a hunch nonetheless, what they’re telling you is they see the same thing you and I do. Seabrook is no longer a top-six player on a team that hopes to do anything noticeable. And with the arrival of Adam Boqvist next year, the return of Henri Jokiharju either then or later this season, and the hopeful arrival of Ian Mitchell (less likely), the Hawks are facing a numbers-crunch. Throw in the arguable fascination with Erik Gustafsson, and it’s worse. And the Hawks are making it known they kind of don’t want Seabrook around to make the matter harder anymore. The tone at least suggests they’re happy to have Keith around if he wants to stay, but they won’t stand in his way.

Or, it could be the Hawks went around to see if anyone would even consider taking Seabrook off their hands, all they heard was laughter, laughter, and are using this as cover for that. Could be, but either way they’re recognizing that Seabrook isn’t in their long-term plans.

We’ve been over what needs to happen before. But it may be getting more urgent and less cordial now that this is in the bloodstream. Once the Hawks reach the conclusion that Seabrook can’t be in their plans, and it seems they’re there, then they’re going to find a way to get him off the roster. What’s clear now is that Seabrook isn’t going to see the end of this contract, at least not here.

We mentioned telling him what the plans will be for him going forward as a seventh d-man. That’s clearly where the Hawks are, and maybe beyond that. As unsightly as it is, both sides seem to be spiraling themselves to a buyout. Now, a buyout is particularly ugly, because of the way Seabrook’s base salary and signing bonus fluctuate. But basically, the Hawks would be paying Seabrook something for another 10 years on a buyout, and they’d have a significant cap-hit with a buyout until ’23-’24. The cap hits for a buyout until then would be, and deep breath here people, $3.7m-$6.7M-$3.7M-$6.7M-$5.2M. Not pretty.

But the thing is, you’re already committed to that. That’s his cap hit now, so you’re paying it either way. It’s sunk cost. Over the next couple of years you’ll be introducing cheap, and what you hope is game-changing, talent to the blue line in Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin, along with Jokiharju. At this moment, it sure looks like none of them will get any real money until at least 2022, and that’s probably only if Boqvist goes the fuck off. So you could argue it balances out?

And maybe that’s what Seabrook is holding out for, and again, that’s his right. He probably already senses this is all coming to an end here, as sad as that may be. But a buyout lets him choose his options essentially, whether that’s going somewhere else (with or without the fam) or simply retiring. He gets to choose, though his NMC would give him some say, just not total.

Just project this out. Next year, at minimum, with no additions, the Hawks blue line is some combination of HarJu, Boqvist, Murphy, Gustaffsson, and in their dreams Mitchell. Dahlstrom has slipped of late, but has also been better than Seabrook. It’s still likely Keith is here. There’s six, and that’s without any trades or signings this team desperately needs to make instead of signing Panarin in a reunion tour. The Hawks seem to have concluded there’s no room for Seabrook. It won’t be long before Seabrook sees that too.

 

Everything Else

F*ck You, Chicago. You Took My Only Friend

By John Pullega 3274 0

It’s been a banner morning for Hawks and hockey fans, which is ironic because the next time this team raises a banner, we will all be dead from exploding heart syndrome. Before we jump into the meat that is Jokiharju’s demotion, I’d like to give a gigantic FUCK YOU to Pierre McGuire for proving yet again that no matter how terrible you are at everything you’ve ever done professionally, if you’re old, white, and know a few people, you too can be an enormous, bloviating, pontificating asshole on national television and get paid millions to do it. The horseshit he pulled on Coyne Schofield last night is a microcosm of why the NHL continues to be a toilet-tier league. The NHL is for everyone, unless you’re a woman, gay, of color, or end up with a head injury.

Now, let’s talk about the move our resident Brain Geniouses made this morning. Henri Jokiharju was sent down to the AHL on the eve of the end of break. As if the terror of this sideways turd of a hockey team having to play games again wasn’t enough to drive us all insane, we now get to watch as supreme talents like Slater Koekkoek, Carl Dahlstrom, Gustav Forsling, Dun-I-Can’t-Find-A-Fuck-To-Give Keith, and Bottomless Pete, nature’s cruelest mistake, continue to push Collin Delia farther into leather-working as a full-time career.

There’s an argument to be made that moving Jokiharju down is a chance to showcase other players as the trade deadline approaches. I am not going to make that argument, because it’s bonafide, Grade-A horseshit. Here’s the list of players that will now have a chance to play over Jokiharju:

Duncan Keith (Full NMC)

Brent Seabrook (Full NMC)

Connor Murphy (One of the Hawks’s two best D-men this year)

Erik Gustafsson (A forward playing defense)

Slater Koekkoek (Sucks deep pond scum)

Carl Dahlstrom (Played OK for 10 games once)

Gustav Forsling (Sucks)

Jokiharju has been playing alongside those top four guys since the beginning, so there’s no reason to send him down to showcase those four. Keith and Seabrook aren’t going anywhere, as Self-Proclaimed Marketing Genius John McDonough continues to insult the intelligence of Hawks fans by implying that they want to pay money to watch legends make them forget how good they once were. Trading Connor Murphy should be considered malfeasance, as he’s been one of the Hawks’s two passable D-men, is still young, and isn’t an anchor on the salary cap. If the Kings can get a first for Muzzin, the Hawks should expect to get at least a second for Gustafsson, but even if you could, can you really see this fucking team pulling the trigger on that with the power play being as effective as it is with him on it?

So that leaves you with a showcase of Koekkoek, who just got traded for Jan Rutta; Carl Dahlstrom, who is about as much of “a guy” as you can be; and Gustav Forsling, who’s basically Erik Gustafsson without any of the offensive output. At best, you’ll get a low pick (think 6th or 7th round) for any of these guys. Stunting Jokiharju’s development by putting him in a league he’s outgrown (yet again) is worth a low draft pick. Fucking wonderful.

It would be one thing if Jokiharju were actually struggling in the NHL, like these water carriers want you to believe. But he really hasn’t. He leads the Hawks with a CF% Rel of 5.5. He leads the Hawks with a 54.1 CF%. Despite the constant jerking around, he’s posted 12 points in 37 games, which ranks him sixth among all NHL rookie D-men for points and fifth among rookie D-men in points per game (minimum 20 games).

When playing on his correct side, his possession numbers are strong: 53+ with Keith, 54+ with Gus, 72 with Murphy (small sample size with Murphy). It wasn’t until the Born on Third Bunch decided to put him on his off side with the worst defenseman the Hawks have—after sending him back to Finland against his will to beat up on a bunch of children he’s already beaten up on before—that his numbers came crashing down. In the limited time he played with Sbarro, Harju had a 36 CF% with Seabrook and a 54+ away from him. This isn’t news: Of all active Hawks defensemen, everyone except Dahlstrom has had better possession numbers away from Seabrook. Just look!

This is the most frustrating part about the demotion. You can showcase the water balloons filled with diarrhea that are Koekkoek, Forsling, and Dahlstrom without demoting Harju BY SCRATCHING THE WORST DEFENSEMAN YOU HAVE. For all those high-falutin degrees Bowman and McDonough are always latently reminding you about (fuck Notre Dame at all levels for all time), that they don’t understand how a fucking sunk cost works is absolutely mind boggling. And as always, kiss my ass with any appeals to “asses in seats.”

Who could have ever imagined that Joel Quenneville—a man whom we’ve all dumped on for not giving young guys a fair shake—would be the one who handled Harju the best? Sending him to Finland was bone-headed, but this is the kind of galaxy brain shit that, had any other team done it, we would giggle at and ask, “Maybe those idiots will take [insert garbage player here] off our hands next.”

The Hawks have nothing to showcase that requires Harju’s demotion. Nothing. Anyone whom they can realistically showcase has already been playing concurrently with Harju. This demotion is simple cowardice. Colliton, Bowman, McDonough: Whoever is making the lineup decisions is too cowardly to tell Brent Seabrook, “We are scratching you because you do not give us the best chance to win.” Because after all, that’s all they’ve been talking about since the beginning of the season: They expect to win, they expect to be a playoff team, they expect to pull within .500, they expect to scratch for every single point.

Demoting one of your top two defensemen is not how you do any of that. All it does is fuck up the development of a 19-year-old part of the future who had the audacity to play fairly well when given the chance. He’s no Rasmus Dahlin, but no one asked him to be that. All we ask is that you give him 20 minutes a night (he’s averaged about 17 since Colliton took over and about 14 since coming back from Finland) and play him with someone, anyone, who complements his puck-moving, strong-vision style.

Instead, they’re sending him down to a league where the only thing he’ll learn is that the AHL is rife with guys who, five years from now, will specialize in getting kicked out of bars for poking strangers and screaming “I PLAYED PROFESSIONAL HOCKEY” before headbutting them when they say, “Sir, I don’t know who you are please stop harassing me.”

My, my what a mess we’ve made.