Everything Else

Game #61 – Hawks vs. Red Wings Preview/Bundt Cake Party: That Dork Looks Like Jam

By Sam Fels 1747 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 25-26-9   Red Wings 23-29-8

PUCK DROP: 6:30

TV: NBCSN (with Mike “Handsy Hands” Tirico calling his first ever hockey game)

THEY MAKE PORNO MOVIES THAT START THAT WAY TOO: Winging It In Motown

I guess pretty soon we’re going to have to replace the train-wreck picture. Is there a way to represent “no plan but a process?” We’ll find out. Because here’s something for ya: If the Hawks win tonight and the Jets beat the Avs, the Hawks will hold the final wild card spot. Fuck, they’ll only be two points behind the Stars for the first wildcard spot, and they just happen to wash up here on Sunday. The Avs do on Friday. As stupid and nonsensical as it may be, these are actual big games. If the Hawks were to win the next three, including two over direct competitors, they aren’t just in the playoff race. They’re firmly entrenched. Perhaps even slight favorites.

They’ll also only be .500. And even a win tonight would only see them seven points ahead of this twisted heap of metal that is the Red Wings. They’re only two points ahead of the Ducks, who are unquestionably a fertilizer collection of a hobo.

#EndHockey

Anyway, that’s the scene, and just about every time you’ve expected the floor to drop out from the Hawks they just keep finding a way to stick around. Either loss to the Bruins or Jackets could have easily sent them to a tailspin. Especially as both were followed by piss poor starts against the Devils and Senators, And yet they recovered. Yes, they recovered against the Devils and Senators, which essentially is the hockey interpretation of my crazy, 30-pound husky/spitz mix knocking over a toddler out of sheer excitement (and she’s done this). But whatever. They recovered. And now it’s at a point where you have to say the Hawks can’t really lose to the Wings. It would be a bad loss.

So here we are. Surface details: Cam Ward will start, as it appears Collin Delia has played himself into waiting around until Corey Crawford is healthy and he can be packed back off to Rockford. His confidence could probably use it. Brendan Perlini is sick, might not play, letting Chris Kunitz back in. Brent Seabrook will play, which will assuredly tighten up the defense that was more welcoming than a Vegas buffet. Ha, that’s funny. See what I did there?

As for the Wings, they still suck. Since losing to the Hawks even though they outplayed them, they’ve beaten the Predators and Senators, but lost to the Flyers twice in a home-and-home. They’re just waiting for Monday, when they can eject their flotsam for picks and fringe prospects, and fill those vacated spots with more promising kids. There’s talk talk that last spring’s top pick, Filip Zadina, will come up after the deadline to take Nyquist’s spot. Stuff like that.

Unlike last time, the Hawks will get Jimmy Howard instead of Jonathan Bernier. Howard will be auditioning for the Sharks or maybe Flames or Jackets as trade bait. He’s a free agent in the summer, the Wings are going to have to have a longer term plan in net than him, and he’s actually been pretty good this year. He’s got playoff experience, and this might be a chip Wings cash in for more than they probably should. His .913 is certainly an improvement on what those teams mentioned are getting right now.

Other differences from 10 days ago is that Trevor Daley is back with his chaw and wayward sense of direction and logic. He joins something named Filip Hronek on the third-pairing. Justin “Let Out The” Abdelkader (cuz the revolution’s here and you know it’s right) has been punted to the bottom-six where he’s always belonged, allowing Nephew Bertuzzi to be with Dylan Larkin. Other than that, there’s not much to report.

Again, if the Hawks keep Larkin and Andreas Anathasiou (I can’t wait another dayyyyyyy) on a leash, you’re three-quarters of the way to beating this outfit. There’s not a lot of depth here, the blue line is slow, and when the Hawks were fully engaged last time this was a team they actually looked significantly faster than. Keep that up, and suddenly the weekend is awfully interesting.

 

Game #61 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile: Callin’ From The Funhouse

By Sam Fels 1668 0

Well here’s a week to analyze. Clocked twice by actual real teams (neither of which is higher than third in their division though, so that’s fun!), and then getting past two dregs with 13 goals combined. Let’s do the thing:

The Dizzying Highs

Brandon Saad – Two goals and four points in four games might not sound like much, but it’s a little more than that. Also, Saad being a point per game and goals in every other would be a very fine season, obviously. What’s drawing my eye to The General is that possession-wise, he’s been flattening everyone in front of him. He threw up 70%+ Corsi against both the Devils and Jackets, and even in the loss to Boston where he was under water he was actually well ahead of the team-rate. Only last night was he below what the team was doing, and he managed two points anyway.

It would seem Saad has found a home on a third-line, which is obviously not what anyone pictured when he was brought back. I’m still a big proponent of putting him back in the top-six after he’s had his longest stretch of dominant hockey in these two seasons, just to see what he can do with better talent and the gained confidence. But he’s a weapon to have there where most teams can’t defend him, and if you were to swap him with say Kahun you’d only get the proper defensive work on a third line without any of the dash. That would probably work better when David Kampf is back in the lineup. Perhaps most impressive about this little streak is that Saad basically has had to create all his own offense (with a little help from Dylan Sikura, who needs a goal to validate the good work he’s been doing), which is something we’ve cudgeled him with before.

As we’ve said, it’s probably past time to give up on what you thought Saad could be, or ever winning that trade. That doesn’t mean Saad isn’t useful, and very much so, and you’ll find life easier if you just appreciate what the Hawks have. That probably won’t stop his name in trade rumors in the summer, and maybe that will be something the Hawks have to do to get what they really need. For now, let’s leave it.

The Terrifying Lows

Carl Dahlstrom – The numbers look ok on Dahlstrom, at least the last two games do. But these are ones you have to get past the numbers and see with your eyes. And it’s horribly unfair on Dahlstrom, who went from in and out of the IceHogs lineup to taking on the dungeon shifts and assignments with Connor Murphy after like a game and a half up in the big league. He is not cut out for this, and you can even have a debate whether he’s cut out for more than #6 or #7 duty. Still, there have been some ugly, ugly shifts.

Dahlstrom isn’t as slow as you might think, but that doesn’t mean he’s fast. And while he’s shown a willingness the past two or three games to try and skate himself out of trouble, sometimes the results have been icky. And that’s not even the main problem, as he’s been wildly chasing out of position, ending up in a corner or behind the net when the puck isn’t there anymore. Perhaps he thinks he needs to be the aggressive one with Connor Murphy more built for the safety role, but that doesn’t mean he’s built for it. The Hawks and Dahlstrom don’t have much choice because this is what they have, but there are going to be more shifts and nights like these as we finish up whatever the hell this is.

The Creamy Middles

Alex DeBrincat – It might be a tad harsh on someone to describe their seven-point week as merely par for the course, but despite what a whole lot of scouts trying to cover their ass think, DeBrincat being a premier scorer in this league is just the facts of the case. He’s now 10th in goals in the league, and has an outside shot at getting 40 this year. You could look at his 18% shooting-percentage as wonder if it’s not a touch lucky, but that’s not that much beyond his 15.5% last year when he was rookie. Some would probably want to dismiss most of his total on merely being dunks from the left circle. But if it were so easy, wouldn’t everyone do it? The kid scores. He gets where he has to without anyone noticing, and he finishes. Now imagine what he could do in a season where he’s taking as many shots as Kane is this year (currently 240 for Kane and 170 for Top Cat). And seeing as how he’ll be playing for a contract next year, it might only get better (and William Nylander‘s deal is probably making Stan Bowman awfully sweaty).

Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets 5, Hawks 2: I’m Sorry I’ve Come For An Argument

By Sam Fels 1779 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

It’s ok, the Hawks will still get a solid slate of bums for a while yet. But what we’ve seen is that when they don’t get bums, and they have to play anyone serviceable in this streak, they’re just not up to it. Boston and Columbus have shown the world their true colors, and the Bruins and Jackets aren’t even really near the cream of the crop of the league (pulls out single-serving of half and half and starts complaining about Jack Tunney). The Hawks can actually do some things when the other team turns off, or put in a great 10-20 minutes, but overall, they still have some weaknesses they can’t hide against teams that have the patience, coaching, and skills to exploit them. Let’s dive in…

The Two Obs

-The biggest difference last night, at least in most of the goals, was the difference in game-breaking speed. Other than Panarin’s lucky, blind deflection off a draw, every other goal for the Jackets was off a rush. Either they beat the Hawks on a change, or they capitalized on a turnover, or they got to the outside. When there is an opening, the Jackets have, at minimum, Atkinson, Panarin, Dubois, Anderson, Wennberg who can get away from you. Or at least the Hawks can’t catch. Who do the Hawks have with game-breaking speed? …still here….yeah, exactly. And that’s especially true on defense, where the Hawks don’t even have one d-man who you’d even describe as fast. At least now that Duncan Keith is either thinking about metal songs he’d like to listen to or flailing desperately at cleaning up Seabrook’s messes. There isn’t even one on the roster. Until the Hawks fix this, they’re going to be justifiably in a position they’d rather not be in (ok, I swear that’s all of them).

-This game will do nothing to stop the flow of Panarin-longing, which isn’t annoying at all. It’s not that Panarin wouldn’t help, because obviously he would. But he wouldn’t help enough, and certainly not for the price he’s going to command. I’m betting the minimum is $9 million a year, and could well go higher than that. You may scoff at that, but he’ll be coming off at least back-to-back 80+ point seasons, which not even Tavares could boast last summer.

Panarin doesn’t play defense. That’s where the Hawks focus needs to be. Sign Karlsson, Offer-sheet Trouba. Trade for Dougie. Pry Hampus out of the sinking ship in Anaheim. Any of these or of this ilk have to be priority one, two, and three. Not signing Kane’s fellow good-time boy.

Secondly, if winning were really central to Panarin’s thoughts, he’d stay right where he is. If Bobrovsky wasn’t dry-heaving his free agent year into the gaping maw of the universe, the Jackets are likely comfortably ahead in the Metro. They have a young, dynamic blue line and a good crop of young forwards. They’re not all that far away. But Panarin’s camp keeps whispering, or louder, hinting at “being on a coast.” Ok, let’s look at teams on the coasts:

Panthers – suck

Lightning – don’t need him nor can afford him

Capitals – technically on the coast but not what he’s talking about

Flyers – suck

Rangers – suck

Bruins – ok maybe? The Boston press will get a huge kick out of him the first time he doesn’t backcheck.

Kings – suck

Ducks – even worse

Sharks – can’t afford him

So yeah, you tell me what matters to Panarin. He’ll always put up numbers, but you can have him.

-The metric numbers are skewed due to the dominant second period the Hawks put up, but at least that was fun. But that didn’t stop Keith, Seabrook, Toews, and Kane to have sub-even numbers. Coach Cool Substitute Teacher simply has to split up Keith and Seabrook, because they’re getting buried every goddamn night. They can’t play together, and the more they do the more likely it is that Keith just chucks it.

You’re going to be terrible defensively anyway, so get Jokiharju up here, and then your top four is some combo of Gustafsson, Keith, Murphy, and the kid. It can’t be any uglier than this.

Toews is a different problem. Much like the team, the results are better than last year but the foundation of the process beneath it is faulty. Sometimes you lose a draw clean, and I don’t want to get on him about that back-breaking fourth goal where that happened. But Toews has been cheating on the fastball all year, not quite getting as low on his defensive duties and looking to get out of the zone quicker. And hey, that’s how the game is played now and if he had any d-man worth a shit that might work even better, as they would just get the puck out and up to him.

But going forward, the Hawks already have one center they have to spot judiciously in Strome. They can’t really have Toews be another, though age may leave them with no choice, or they’re going to have to find another center whom they can dungeon along with Kampf.

-Brandon Saad with another 70% Corsi-share. No, the Hawks didn’t win that trade. But they still have a very good player as a result of it. Both of these things can be true, and we should all just accept it.

Seems like enough for this morning.

Everything Else

Angry At Numbers: Saad Appreciation Society

By Sam Fels 1519 0

We’re into our silly bits of trivia around here. One of McClure’s favorites is that David Krejci is the only player to lead the league in playoff scoring twice and not win a Conn Smythe (went to Thomas in ’11, and hilariously and wrongly to Kane in ’13). Brandon Saad might get his own one day, though this one is more subjective. It’s quite possible that Saad will be on the losing end of two trades involving the same team! If Anton Forsberg had worked out, maybe the first Saad trade would have been considered a wash. Artem Anisimov is never going to win my heart over, though. And at the time we thought Panarin was just a Kane-byproduct.

Clearly, Saad is not going to live up to that half of that trade. And perhaps it was just another example of Stan Bowman trying to stick it to Joel Quenneville. We won’t know until the tell-all comes out right about the time we find out who killed Kennedy.

Saad’s season was infuriating in some ways, not least of which was a 7.4 SH% that kind of nullified the excellent work he and Toews were doing. Both have seen a market correction in that department this year, with Saad already past last season’s 18 goals.

But I want to point out the near-dominant work that Saad has put up since the new year, where he’s found a home with David Kampf on the third line, and now Marcus Kruger.

54.9, 52.6, 51.0

+11.8, +11.9, +15.7

The first set of numbers is Saad’s Corsi, scoring chance percentage, and high-danger scoring chance percentage. On their own, you’d say they were ok to good, maybe a touch better. The next three numbers are what they are relative to the team-rate, which is some of the best numbers around. Saad’s relative-Corsi since the new year is fifth in the entire league (Panarin is first, dishearteningly), the scoring chance number relative is 11th, and the high-danger one 23rd. That’s forwards and d-men.

Saad is just not going to be a top-line, Hossa-Jr., atomic-leg-dropping-the-world winger that we all thought he could, and perhaps should be. However, just because he’s on the third-line now doesn’t mean he’s a third-liner either, though bum-slaying seems to have connected with him nicely. If he had demonstrated in the past he would take to the right side, and I think it’s still worth another try, you could swap him and Kahun and I’m fairly sure he, Top Cat, and Strome would do some things that would make you chuckle. But for now, we’ll take this.

50.9, 44.9

And again, we’re studying a trade from the summer of 2017. The first number is Niklas Hjalmarsson’s Corsi, and the second is Connor Murphy’s. You can hear Joel Quenneville cackling with delight, if he read us and cared about metrics. The image of that though makes me smile.

As we’ve stated in the past, Murphy and Hammer are getting some of the most dungeon shifts in the league. They rank fourth and fifth from the bottom in terms of offensive-zone starts. Basically, they never start anywhere but their own end. And when looking at relative numbers, Murphy’s -1.12 Corsi-relative and -0.54 xGF% are actually some of the best among d-men who are also chained to the radiator. It’s just that Hjalmarsson is having a unicorn season, where his relatives are +2.52 and +6.7. So fuck him.

This is where you’d point out that partnering with Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a different animal than partnering with Carl Dahlstrom or Slater Koekkoek. And you’d be right. Hjalmarsson’s numbers do drop a bit without OEL, though not off a cliff.

It’s going to be a debate next year when, at the very least hopefully, Jokiharju and Boqvist are here. You won’t really realize all Murphy can be, or at least see what that is, until you give him a partner that can get the play up the ice that he can play free safety for. Those two are supposed to be that. But neither of those two kids should be given such horrific zone starts. Guess we’ll worry about it next year.

-4.59, -4.24, -7.58

That’s the difference in Jonathan Toews’s relative marks in Corsi, scoring chances, and high danger chances from last year to this. While Toews is having an offensive renaissance, and yes he plays on a woeful defensive team, it does seem to have come at a cost to his defensive game. Which, hey, when he’s shooting 17% you can live with it. He’s no longer the possession-dominant player he once was, even last year.

But the process…it just isn’t as good. Last year, Toews was getting more attempts, shots, and chances than he is this year. He’s just burying them far more often this season, as his SH% at evens is almost double what it was last year (8.7 to 16.1 this year). And of course he’s getting far more power play points, as he racked up just two power play goals and 12 power play points last term and already has five and 16 this year.

It would behoove the Hawks to start viewing Toews as a really good #2 center, and to try and figure out how to get a #1 ahead of him. Or hey, maybe you get a third #2 and just roll with the three along with Strome. It also appears that Toews has to decide which half of the game he’s going to pay attention to, because he probably can’t do it all anymore.

Everything Else

Game #58 – Devils 2, Hawks 5 – I’m the Man Who Brings You Roses When ‘Ya Ain’t Got None

By Rose Rankin 1972 0

It was Chris Kunitz‘s 1000th game, it was Valentine’s Day, there was so much to distract from the fact that it was two crappy teams both trying to bounce back from particularly crappy losses. But in the end, the fact that Cory Schneider is horrendous and Cam Ward was, well, really good, made the difference. To the bullets…

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– This game looked like it was going to get real ugly early on. The first period ended with shots at 14-13 Devils-Hawks, but the Hawks only caught up late in the period so that figure really masks how badly they were outplayed. A more accurate reflection is the 44.7 CF% at evens that they managed that period. In what will come as the least surprising statement of the night, the defense looked like total shit, with Erik Gustafsson being particularly putrid. He lost his man along the boards (or more accurately, stood there watching as he skated away) leading directly to the first goal by Damon Severson, he made multiple awful passes, and was generally useless. But it wasn’t just Gus. Everyone looked terrible except Cam Ward, who was lucky to keep it 2-0 for a while, and Patrick Kane, who just said fuck it and scored to make it 2-1 with just a couple minutes left.

– OK, it actually wasn’t just all Patrick Kane on that first goal; Dylan Sikura set up the play by winning a board battle with LOCAL GUY Nick Lappin and getting the puck to Kane in the first place. Sikura ended the night with a 68.4 CF%, and his line with Saad and Wide Dick had a 75 CF%, and I really wish Coach Cool Youth Pastor would see the value in the actions and numbers just described and play him for more than 10 minutes (or let’s just start with keeping him here instead of Rockford).

– Why would that possession matter so much? Because the Hawks were positively schizophrenic in their control of the puck tonight. They got domed in the first as described, then bounced back with a strong second period and managed a 60.5 CF% at evens, only to suck pond scum again in the third with a 34.5. They managed a paltry 8 shots in the third against the 19 they gave up to the Devils (yes, that’s right, 19 in the third), and it was really just Ward standing on his head, occasionally without a mask because of some bizarre wardrobe malfunction, that kept them in the period.

– And to that point, Ward was really good tonight. You know I don’t want to admit that, but I have to. There were flurries of shots he faced in both the first and third periods where it could have absolutely gotten out of hand. His positioning was excellent and rebound control was solid. Ward finished with a .953  SV%, and like always faced an obscene number of shots (43). Conversely, Cory Schneider is so bad I actually FEEL bad for him. He basically hasn’t won a game since the first Obama administration, and his total lack of rebound control led to Anisimov’s insurance goal in the third, which basically put the game away. At the end of the day, I’m glad the Hawks won so whatever, fuck him, but it’s actually kinda depressing at this point.

– Brandon Saad got his 300th and 301st points tonight, and on this Valentine’s Day this guy FUCKS. A shorthanded goal, a 76 CF%, be still my heart.

– Kane and Toews continued their Fuck You tour. Kane had three points, including the first goal which arguably changed the entire trajectory of the game because it came late in the first, and it seemed to energize them since they dominated the second period. Kane to Koekkoek to Toews in the second was probably the prettiest goal, but Caligula’s was no slouch either and set the tone for the second (namely, that the Hawks were going to kick their ass for 20 minutes). All around, a good night for the top line.

– Slater Koekkoek actually didn’t play terribly tonight. Again, you know I don’t want to admit that, but it’s true. He had an assist and a 68 CF% (SO CLOSE to making the joke), and generally was not offensive to the eyes or causing your face to melt in horror.

– Look, he’s not an important part of the organization nor does he have much history (or much future) here, but it’s cool that Chris Kunitz has played 1000 games, and the Hawks did their best in marking the occasion and being generally nice about it. Thumbs up all around.

So it was a good bounce-back game after the ignominious end of the streak against Boston. There’s some more shitty teams coming up over the next week and a half, and the conference remains a weird clusterfuck so who knows! Onward and upward…

Photo credit: NHL.com

Everything Else

Game #55 – Canucks vs. Hawks Preview/Slow Cooker Potluck: Come On Inside

By Sam Fels 1970 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Canucks 24-24-6   Hawks 21-24-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THE BENNING WARRIORS: Canucks Army

First off, I realize it probably doesn’t square up to keep using the train-wreck picture when they’ve won five in a row, but I also don’t want to mess with what’s working. So there.

So this is stupid, and with pretty much everyone playing tonight it could shake out any number of ways, but the Canucks currently hold the last playoff spot. And with a regulation win over them, the Hawks will honest-to-god be one point behind them. In fact, should the Blues not win tonight–and they’re in Tampa so you wouldn’t count on it–a regulation win would see the Hawks no more than a point out no matter how the other results go. Sure, they might still have to climb over five goddamn teams, but it’s all a fucking mess so let’s do our best to enjoy it.

And getting one over on this Canucks team at home shouldn’t be that big of an ask, but the Hawks have whiffed on easier exams. Vancouver is at the end of a four-game Eastern swing, so they could have the bus running. Since the turn of the year they’re a middling, at best, 5-5-2. They’re coming off two-straight losses, where they scored three goals total. They have five division games after this, which they’ll consider more important. This is the donut-hole, as it were.

What the Canucks are doing here at all is another question. This is not a team that should even think about a playoff spot, and should really be more concerned with another top-five pick to line up next to Quinn Hughes next year. Sure, it has Elias Pettersson (I SAID WWE STANDS FOR…), who is the runaway Rookie Of The Year and the main reason anyone is paying any attention to the tears-blue and puke-green these days. He’s made Bo Horvat somewhat useful, which is a real trick, and Brock Boeser is still scoring at a decent rate when he’s upright. Jacob Markstrom has been good enough in net to not get them killed.

But much like the Hawks, this isn’t a good team and there’s no number to suggest they are. They’re fifth-worst in possession, third-worst in expected-goals percentage. They’ve shot an ok percentage, but even their special teams are nothing to notice. In fact, since a barely-hot start that had them at 10-6-2, they’re 14-18-4. Much like the Hawks, they’ve profited from a middle and bottom of the conference that can’t separate or distinguish itself in anyway, and hence everyone gets to be a hanger-on like a late night at a casino (believe me, I know).

The Canucks offer a decent top-six through Pettersson (with a record), Horvat, Boeser. Nikolay Goldobin and Jake Virtanen have not lived up to any expectation, and in Virtanen’s case it feels like the 17th straight year we’ve said that. The top pairing of Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher has been under-the-radar good, but the rest blows and you know that because it has Erik Gudbranson on it. Alex Edler is out because he tried to bob for apples on an ice surface, and he’s past his sell-by date anyway. So might be Chris Tanev, who the Canucks have refused to trade for what seems like a decade and now no one would want him. This is Canucks management at its best.

Surrounding the admittedly promising talent are some of the most hilarious contracts in the league. Go to their CapFriendly.com page and just marvel at Eriksson, Gagner, Beagle, Sutter, and a few others. It’s like something out of the modernist wing of your local museum. It has shapes and colors but no discernible statement or plan other than “I put this shit on a wall.

For the Hawks, they’ll be without David Kampf for the next month, and that’s a bigger deal than it might first appear. Kampf had become Kruger II, and you could start him against top lines in his own zone and he’d find a way to come out on top. He and Brandon Saad had combined to form a pretty hellacious combo on the third line, and the Hawks will miss that. Maybe the original Marcus Kruger can roll back the clock for a couple weeks, but you wouldn’t be the house on it. He’ll slide to center and Brendan Perlini will come in at wing there.

The only other changes are Gustav Forsling in for Carl Dahlstrom, which makes all the pairings muck, and Collin Delia will start.

This is a matchup game for CCYP. The Canucks bottom-six is a toxic waste dump covered in dogshit and seasoned with squirrel carcass. He should try and get his top lines out against them as often as possible and watch the havoc ensue. See if Kruger can deal with Pettersson like old times, and if not you can always change the plan. For once the Hawks won’t have the worse bottom lines, and should try and maximize that.

It doesn’t make any sense, and it’s probably worse for the organization that it is this way now, but let’s see how far this dumb, silly, but fun ride goes. Six is better than five.

Game #55 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #51 – Step Right Up: Everyone’s a Winner, Bargains Galore – Islanders 2, Hawks 2 (Hawks Turn a Sandwich Into a Banquet)

By John Pullega 1971 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

The Hawks get pantsed in the nerd stats but come away with a shootout win on the backs of the power play and Cam Ward. Just like we all predicted. To the bullets!

– Cam Ward had a mostly good game tonight. He let in his embarrassingly soft goal early but looked like an NHL-caliber goalie for the rest of the game. You’d be hard pressed to blame him for Barzal’s breakaway goal, given how obscenely good he is. You’d be forgiven for assuming he’d have his ass stuffed and mounted in the shootout—which continues to be both the dumbest and most exciting way to end a game around—but he did what he was supposed to do. And 33 saves on 35 shots, 15 of which were the high-danger variety, is a strong performance. The Fels Motherfuck is consistent and indiscriminate.

– The Islanders’s first goal was one of the strangest I’ve seen in a while. In the moment, it was like watching that big fucking fish eat you World 3 in Mario Bros. 3: It was slow and shouldn’t have happened, and yet. While Jokiharju took the initial blame for it, the whole fucking play was bananas. Just look:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7293Iw2arI

This is a set play gone wrong. Anisimov wins the draw and Hayden starts to break out. The idea is for Jokiharju to retrieve the puck and pass it out to Hayden if possible, with Gustafsson as a release value. But Anisimov doesn’t win the puck cleanly, as it knocks off his left skate, slowing the puck down. Flippula then overpowers Anisimov, who manages to fail at getting in Filppula’s way. Watch Anisimov lean into Filppula in a way that allows Flippula to get around him. Anisimov’s only job after winning the faceoff is to keep Flippula away from the puck, and he doesn’t. With one fucking hand, Filppula gets around Artie, throws Harju off track, then stickhandles around Anisimov to backhand a soft goal.

Ward should have had it, but the main culprit on this play was Anisimov, not Harju. Harju was a bit slow on the uptake, but if Artie keeps Filppula off the puck and doesn’t get manhandled by a guy with one hand on his stick, none of that happens.

– The power play has scored in nine straight games, including two tonight. On the first, Kane magicked his way from the mid to high slot, feeding Strome on the goal line. Strome then did that thing that Toews used to do four years ago, crashing from the goal line and stuffing a shot past that standup-save chud Robin Lehner.

Kane didn’t get a point on the second PP goal, but he set that one up too. He hit Strome with a pass just below the goal line. Strome then belched it out to a waiting DeBrincat, who settled down the not-so-great pass, went backhand–forehand, and gave Toews a shot to bat the rebound out of mid-air.

– The Saad–Kampf–Kruger line was nails in possession tonight, with a respective 66.67, 61.54, and 57.69. Although I had stupid, stupid dreams about Saad scoring 90 this year (because I am stupid, you see), if Saad is going to carve out a strong 2nd/3rd wing spot, I won’t be terribly upset. Kampf is interesting, given his speed, defensive ability, and seemingly utter lack of scoring touch. He’s likely a faster version of Kruger 1.0, which is nice to have.

– On the other end, Keith–Seabrook looked putrid tonight. Each sported a 35+ CF% and CF% Rels of -17.87. Colliton can talk all day about how he wants to rotate younger guys to keep them from burning out or whatever other horseshit he wants to shovel to protect the apparently fragile egos of Keith and Seabrook. But until he scratches one or both of them after games like this, it’s going to be hard to take him seriously. I get that it’s not something he wants to broach, but be the fucking coach. If they’re going to suck together, break them up or give them less time. If they’re just going to suck regardless, fucking scratch them. It might be them who’s getting burned out.

– Erik Gustafsson was a snuff film in his own end. He had at least three unforced turnovers. But you know what? As long as he keeps putting up points and QB’ing the most dangerous power play in the league since mid-December, I do not give a fuck at all.

– Outside of the turnover that led to Barzal’s breakaway, which was admittedly bad, our Large Irish Son looked good tonight. He was much better away from Koekkoek, as I assume most defensemen are, but even dragging Koekkoek around, Murphy posted a 56+ CF%, best among Hawks defensemen by far. I’ll never understand people who says he sucks. I get being mad that Hjalmarsson is gone, but that doesn’t make Murphy shitty.

– Drake Caggiula isn’t a first liner, but Toews and Kane sure make him look like one. You can sort of see how he kinda fits as a fast puck retriever, and he looked especially good for a sequence in the first. But a lot of that is just the residue of Toews’s Renaissance and Kane’s Hart-worthy otherworldliness.

Not a bad way to go into the break here. We’re going to post a whole bunch of stuff that looks like the result of a boomers-and-blow binge during the bye, so we’ll see you there.

Booze du Jour: Makers 46 & High Life

Line of the Night: “Pat, listen up because this is right up your alley: The Hawks are hosting a margarita night.” –Konroyd

Everything Else

Atop the Sugar Pile – Three-Day Weekend

By Rose Rankin 1696 0

It’s time once again for our version of the Blackhawks hot-or-not: 

The Dizzying Highs

Jonathan Toews: With a hat trick plus two assists yesterday, we’d be remiss if we DIDN’T put Toews in the Dizzying Highs. I can’t think of a performance more worthy of the name than a five-point game, and one that was against the current Stanley Cup champions no less, even if they were still drunk from the night before. Beyond just yesterday, though, Toews has been playing consistently well—obviously for the season as a whole but in particular the last week or so, other than the shit-fest at Madison Square Garden the other night. He had a point in each of the three games prior to that. He’s already surpassed his point total for last year and he’s tied his total for 2016-17. Yes, his possession numbers are a little questionable still (50.7 CF%, 1.9 CF% Rel), but shit, the guy had a hat trick and five total points yesterday.

Patrick Kane: Kane gets an honorable mention here this week because he too had five points against the Capitols yesterday and the little shit has been playing out of his mind. Again.

The Terrifying Lows

Carl Dahlstrom: OK, Dahlstrom is inexperienced and getting absolutely buried with his zone starts: 28.75% offensive zone starts as of today, per Natural Stat Trick. However, he’s also playing with one of the 2.5 competent defensemen the Hawks have right now, and he’s sucked out loud for a couple weeks, after what had been a promising start that now just screams adrenaline-and-good-luck. We can parse the stats any way we want and get a muddled answer: His GF% is 54, but they give up more scoring chances when he’s on the ice (47 SCF%). On top of that, the Hawks give up a shitload more high-danger chances than what they attempt when Dahlstrom is out there—his High-Danger Chances For percentage is a woeful 38.5%. But my immediate issue is not just numbers (although I am angry at those too), but it’s how doltish he’s played lately, i.e., against the Rangers last week, and the Knights a few days before that. He’s either standing around watching opponents score, or he’s in the wrong position, or he’s chasing helplessly, or he’s leaving his man open. I realize there are no good answers with this defense, but whatever hope there was around Dahlstrom is fading fast.

Duncan Keith: Keith gets an honorable mention here this week because his turnover to Chris Kreider in the Rangers game last week was so abominable, I’m still not over it.

The Creamy Middles

Collin Delia: Let it be known that I don’t like listing the same guy in the same part of this post two weeks in a row (and I’m now doing it twice in this one). But like or not Delia and the goaltending situation as a whole is an unavoidable point of emphasis so I don’t want to ignore it simply for format’s sake. Anyway, you know we’re fans of Delia around these parts, but yesterday he had a mix of highlight-reel saves and soft goals that should never have happened. Out of his last six starts, Delia has given up three or more goals in five of them. That’s troubling. However, his save percentage is still .923%, so you know a lot of this is the defense hanging him out to dry (see: Dahlstrom in the aforementioned Vegas game). In those six previous starts, the lowest number of shots he faced was 32, and the highest was 50. Good lord. So Delia is keeping them in games and basically has one arm tied behind his back thanks to the putrid blue line, yet he’s still undeniably coming down to earth after an insane start.

Brandon Saad: Saad gets an honorable mention here because his goal against the Caps yesterday was a thing of beauty, and he’s had three goals in as many games. He still fucks.

All stats via Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick

Everything Else

Game #49 – Hawks 3, Rangers 4 – Get Used to the Thought, You Can’t Be What You’re Not

By Rose Rankin 1724 0

There’s really no denying it after this game: the Hawks are definitively the league’s bottom feeders. Yes, the Kings technically have fewer points (by one) but they also have two games in hand on the Hawks. Don’t kid yourself–they’re awful. Let’s just get to it:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– The Hawks played well for about the first four minutes of the game. After that, it was pretty much straight downhill. By the time that Brandon Saad scored the first goal on the power play around five minutes in, the Hawks had been dominating possession and showed good speed. That power play came just as they were losing their grip on things, and Saad took advantage of Henrik Lundqvist being too twitchy and leaving a wide open goal. But it was all Rangers after that, and even though the Hawks finished that period leading in possession (58.6 CF%), they still gave up goals to both Chytil and Zuccarello, and managed to be losing at the end of the period despite leading not only in possession but shots too.

– Did I mention it got worse after that? In the second period the Hawks were basically useless, with the low point coming when Duncan Keith carelessly handled a shitty pass from Saad, and moved the puck not away from the goal, not into the corner or to the boards, but directly into the middle of the slot where Chris Kreider calmly scored point blank on Delia. It was equal parts lazy and stupid. Technically the goal was unassisted—if only that were true. Keith should have had the primary assist on that one.

– In general it was a rough night for the defense (SHOCKING). Keith’s fuck-up was the worst example, but the Gustafsson-Jokiharju pairing had its problems too. They ended above water in possession but in the first period Gustafsson got squashed like a bug and with the resulting turnover, Filip Chytil de-pantsed Jokiharju for the first goal. Joker was on his off side at that point, basically out of necessity, but that should say something to Coach Cool Youth Pastor next time he thinks about flipping Jokiharju as he did when he paired him with Nachos the other night. Murphy and Dahlstrom were also chasing and watching as Zuccarello scored a few minutes later. It was team effort to suck tonight.

– On that note, Jonathan Toews took a leadership role at sucking. He had a wide open net at the end of the third when they had the extra attacker out, could have tied the game, and didn’t even hit the net. It made Kahun’s literal last-second goal even more painful since it would have been a game-winner.

– They got two more power play goals tonight, so yes it’s a relief that’s still happening. But unfortunately the movement wasn’t what we’ve been seeing lately, and had the Hawks been playing a good team, they probably wouldn’t have scored at least one of those goals.

– After coming out of the first period behind, and losing whatever momentum or give-a-shit-ness that they had, the Hawks were basically out of fucks to give entirely. They were bad in the second period but even worse in the third, managing only six shots and a 40 CF%. In a way I can’t blame them because it’s demoralizing to suck all the time. But even when they’ve sucked before they’ve at least been entertaining (the Flames game, the Predators game). Getting beat by a fellow crap team really took it out of them I guess.

There are 33 games left to go guys…wow, that sounds depressing when I say it out loud. Fortunately just a couple more until the All-Star break? Onward and upward?

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

Game #43 – Hawks 2, Islanders 2 (Islanders win Cheetos shape finding contest) – A Rose By Any Other Name

By Adam Hess 1606 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

The Blackhawks were lucky this shitfest went to overtime. I am no Pullega so let’s just bullets it:

-The Blackhawks being beaten by a guy named Toews is kind of a hilarious cherry on top of this season, to me at least. Finally Hockey Twitter is right and a Toews was the downfall of the Hawks.

– So, Collin Delia might be an actual thing. Like I said, the Hawks were lucky they even got to overtime in this one, and it was solely on the play of Delia that they got there. He stopped 47 of 50 total shots and was locked in the whole time, save for some slight rebound control issues early on that aren’t exactly surprising given this is his fifth career NHL game. He’s been aces for them and might just end up fucking up the quasi-tank they have going on here. But given the status of Crawford, if he proves to be a franchise goalie, that’s way more important than Jack Hughes would be so it’d be fine. Moving forward there is no reason he shouldn’t be started every game that isn’t a back-to-back, and since the Hawks have just one of those in a light January before the bye week at the end of the month, he needs to be between the pipes this whole month so we really see what we have here.

– I have been very wary of giving up on Gustav Forsling, in large part because I felt like I really saw something in him that proved he could be a good defenseman in the NHL. He has the smooth skating stride, the puck control, the passing that you want to see from a mobile defenseman. The problem is he can’t for the life of him put it all together, and I don’t think they ever taught him what defense actually looks like in Sweden. He has been downright bad for a while now and I have finally come to grips with it. At this point the best case is maybe that you find a team willing to gamble on his upside.

Side note – based on the reports I’m hearing from the WJC and some of the earlier scouting reports, I might be starting to be a little worried about if Adam Boqvist is actually gonna be able to play defense, or if he’ll just be Forsling with better tools.

– The Jonathan Toews “Fuck You Tour” continued tonight, as even in a game in which the Hawks got shitpumped and skull-fucked simultaneously in the possession game with a hilariously bad “are you sure you even tried” 36.89 CF%, Toews dominated to the tune of an individual CF% of 60. Brandon Saad and Dominic Kahun were flanking him and were the only other two Hawks above 50%, with 58.64 and 54.55 respectively. That’s a dominant night from that line that basically went for naught, save for Kahun getting the opening goal of the game.

– Speaking of “Fuck You” tours, this time of a different variety, Duncan Keith was ass again tonight with a 37.14 CF%. I’m sad but also tired of it.

– I had the national NBCSN feed streaming on my computer, because for some reason NBCSN wanted to subject the nation to this monstrosity, but in the end it turned out that the real monstrosity was the broadcast. I don’t know who the announcers were for the broadcast, but they were boring as hell. One of them was a woman who’s analysis was good for the most part save for a few cheap praises of a Hawks team that played like utter garbage, but even with that they were not exciting at all. It also sounded like Nassau Coliseum was dead. And then in the intermission reports, Kathryn Tappen (who is normally very good) butchered Delia’s name to an extent that I did not think could be possible, though I can’t exactly blame her because he’s a relative unknown and she’s on the national level so she probably learned his name today. Then Roenick had the audacity in the postgame to say the Hawks played “good tight defense” and that’s why Delia was able to keep them in it, and I was done. I need to go back to the Mute Lounge.

– GO BEARS BITCH.