We pay tribute to Tom Petty the only way we know how – talking shit about hockey and recalling Bryan Berard’s ’03-’04 season in this leadoff episode for the upcoming campaign. Links after the jump.
And with that, the preseason is finally over, with the Hawks closing the festivities out with an unconvincing 1–0 victory against a collection of strokes and scabs that probably won’t find themselves near the ice in the near future. To the bullets.
-Let’s get it out of the way early: Brent Seabrook looked like a soiled diaper that had been left out in the sun. When he wasn’t getting blown past by AHLers, he was futzing around with janky passes in his own zone. Throughout the game, Crawford got a better look at his face than his ass, which is neigh on impossible to do these days. Yet here we are. He ended the game with a 27.91 CF%, which was positively immaculate compared to his 1st period CF% of 15.38, which I didn’t know was a real thing. He was also on the ice for 7 of Boston’s 13 high-danger chances. The only player who was on the ice for more high-danger changes was Forsling, with 9. Would you like to guess whom he was paired with most of the game?
-At least we got to see Crow do what Crow does. He looked a little like Bizzaro Brodeur behind the net early on with a few fumbles, but when the Bruins put the heat on in the 2nd, he stood tall with 16 saves. He ended 38/38, and while the shutout is somewhat expected given the quality of the opponent, that he had to make 33 saves at evens doesn’t induce any swelling in the loins.
-It took a while, but Kempný settled in after a less-than-impressive 1st period. One thing I noticed in the 1st and 2nd was that Kempný liked to skate the puck into the zone with power, but when he got halfway through the circle, he’d sort of freeze, as if to say, “What am I doing here?” A bit more time and a positive outcome or two should shake what looks like tentativeness out of his system.
-It figures that the Hawks would win it on a PP after spending most of the game not doing much on it. On cue, Kane hit Sharp with a cross-ice pass, but when you really look at it, it was a much harder play than it seemed. Kane saucered the pass through the “royal road,” which is the area between the circles from the goal line to the top of the circles. The idea is that passes through the royal road force goalies to move laterally, opening up a lot of holes to shoot at. But what was truly impressive was that Sharp was on his off side, meaning he had to pull the shot back to flick it over Khudobin’s shoulder. All around, really impressive.
-If they want to make Bouma–Kero–Hayden a thing, I’d be OK with that. Aside from a stupid run that led to a near odd-man rush, Bouma was decently responsible in his own zone. Kero seems to rove a bit much for my liking in his own zone.
-The PK looked good. I primarily saw Kempný–Rutta and Keith–Murphy. The forward pairings were consistent, with Schmaltz–Kero, Hartman–Artie the One-Man Party, Saad–Toews, and even Bouma–Hayden.
-Speaking of The Brain, Hayden might have played himself onto the roster. He was aggressive without being stupid, and I really, really like how well he’s skated.
-I kept looking for the hinge on Toews’s stick, because he had some trouble corralling the puck early on. But he and Saad jelled more and more as the game went on, with several high-quality chances.
-Panik, on the other hand, looked lost out there, going so far as to take a temper-tantrum cross-checking penalty after something called Rob O’Gara, whose name I’m certain is nothing more than a fat-fingered registrar’s typo, horsed him on a one-on-one.
-Rutta looked decent. He had one egregious turnover in his own zone late in the 3rd, but was fine otherwise. Murphy looked a touch worse than him before coming down with a case of “this is boring” or whatever it was that happened to him.
-Alex DeBrincat didn’t put any numbers up tonight, but looked good for the most part. He had a good block in the 1st, looked confident in the neutral zone throughout, and had a good sequence in the 3rd, nearly tipping a shot in and then drawing a penalty. He had a bad turnover on that PP, but it ended up not mattering. He ought to make the team out of the preseason.
-I never want to see Forsling–Seabrook behind Sharp–Schmaltz–Kane on purpose again. Every time it happened, it was a personal affront to proper theology and geometry.
Beer du jour: Zombie Dust
Line of the night: “Sharp looks absolutely fantastic.” –Steve “Stars in My Eyes” Konroyd.
Onward. . .
I don’t really know how to start this player preview, so I would like to take a moment to commend Captain Woke on his rather thoughtful comments about the anthem protest controversies of late. As a white hockey player, it would’ve been pretty easy for him to him and haw his way through any questions about, spewing a bunch of cliche’s but not really saying anything. Instead he did a good job of putting the whole thing in perspective and putting the focus of his comments on emphasizing the need to bring the conversation back to where it should’ve been the whole damn time. So good job, Jonny. Let’s talk about your hockeying now.
2016-17 Stats
72 GP – 21 G – 37 A
52.4 CF% – 55.4 oZS% – 44.6 dZS%
20:09 Avg. TOI
A Look Back: Much of last year’s noise about our fearless leader revolved around his apparently controversial selections to a few teams/lists that some of Hockey Twitter’s favorite fun haters didn’t think he deserved. He was named to Team Canada for the World Cup of Hockey, and some dude who doesn’t understand anatomy said he didn’t deserve it. Then he was named to the NHL Top 100 list, which was entirely meaningless but of course that means Hockey Twitter took it entirely too seriously. They were mad that he made it over the likes of Evegeni Malkin, which isn’t necessarily a bad argument, but that still didn’t make it any less meaningless. Everyone was mad about these selections because they wanted to act like Toews sucks, meanwhile the man himself was quietly putting up yet another strong season while playing with a man who’s skin was literally melting off of him and a few guys that had never played top-six minutes in his life. Ho-Hum.
Toews was with Richard Panik nearly the whole season, Marian Hossa for most of it, and Nick Schmaltz for a good bit of the last half of the year. He spent a decent amount of time with John Hayden when he got signed late in the season, as well. Overall, his quality of linemates was pretty low, which really only makes his 58 points and rather strong possession stats all the more impressive. Because he missed 10 games, he was really on a 66 point pace, which is hardly elite but is no doubt top-line caliber. His 58 points also tied for 46th overall in the NHL, which is nothing to scoff at either.
And if you’ll put up with a bit of soap-boxing, the Toews hate from last year hardly made much sense to me. Toews became considered one of the league’s best players because he was the captain of and top center for three Cup winning teams. He might have reached a bit of an overrated status, but he basically earned the status. He’s only had one year where he didn’t pace out to at least 60 points, and is a damn near point per game player for his career, with a .86 PPG career rate. He’s also one of the best two-way players in the game, with a very strong defensive game. He’s basically been the same player for most of his career, and really had hardly declined recently as much as many would like you to believe. In reality, the league has seen such an influx of good young players that Toews just became another one of the league’s great-but-not-elite centers. He is good and not bad. Thanks.
A Look Ahead: Toews is going to get reunited with his old running mate Brandon Saad, which is perfect because Saad was, is, and forever will be just about the perfect linemate for Captain Environmentalist. Getting these two back together is basically the ideal scenario for the Blackhawks, and would be even if Marian Hossa hadn’t been eaten alive by his own skin. Even though Toews hasn’t quite fallen off the beaten path yet, he’s approaching 30 and is probably going to start the actual declining process within the next 3-4 years. Luckily, 4 years is exactly how long Saad is signed for, and having him around will help mitigate whatever decline Toews experiences. These two are probably going to be close to inseparable this season.
The other wing could be filled by any number of players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Richard Panik spend a good amount of time with the two of them, especially given Panik’s success with Toews last year. Patrick Sharp is another option, but that is definitely not ideal. DeBrincat would fit in well with them, though I’d still prefer he ends up with opposite Kane most of the time. Schmaltz could get another look there, but that should only happen if he can’t hang in the middle. It’s basically going to be yet another carousel, which is something we’ve become used to around these part. In terms of production, I think Toews could be a solid bet for another 60+point season if he ends up playing 75+ games.
Please don’t tell Hockey Twitter that I said nice things about Jonathan Toews. I would hate for them to have more things to be mad about.
Stats via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.
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The Prodigal Swordsman returns.
After two seasons in Dallas, an aged (which is depressing to say because he’s not even four months older than I am) Patrick Sharp returns for his 11th season on West Madison on a prove-it contract. But just how much is there left to prove?
You know, I never joined a sorority partly because I think that trials of loyalty and the concomitant proof of conformity are stupid. And yet here I am, with this fucking cabal, saddled with all the Red Wings games. You believe this shit? Anyway, let’s get on with it. (And fraternity/sorority people, don’t come at me, I’m only generalizing about my thoughts, not demeaning yours.)
After the Blackhawks tore my heart out by trading Teuvo, it did not take long for me to settle on Nick Schmaltz as special boy 2.0. There was a lot to get excited about with him, with his smooth speedy skating, his vision and passing ability, and his sneaky good but oft-underused wrist shot. Plus, his Twitter feed is extremely “college hockey player,” which can be both bad and good, but I get a kick out of it. He was fine in his rookie year, and at times I was damn near convinced he could be better than Teuvo (my heart is still torn). There were some kinks to work out, of course, but a lot to be encouraged by. Shall we?
2016-17 Stats
61 GP – 6 G – 22 A
49.4 CF% – 57.5 oZS% – 42.5 dZS%
13:16 Avg. TOI
A Look Back: Schmaltz was a bit slow starting last year, with just 5 points (1G, 4A) in 26 games before the New Year, which saw him get demoted to Rockford for a spell. He found his production again with the Hogs, potting 6 goals and 3 assists in 12 games before getting recalled and bringing that scoring to the NHL. He scored two points in his second game after being recalled, and finished with 23 points (5G, 18A) in his last 35 games. I’m inclined to believe that he is more the player that we saw in the second half of last year than the one we saw in the first half. That .65 PPG rate over the last 35 games paces out to about a 54 point total over 82 games, which would’ve been a phenomenal rookie year for him and had ranked him 4th among rookie scorers. Obviously that’s a shitload of hypotheticals, but the point I’m getting at is that the kid is good, and his rookie year much better than his raw numbers would show.
The shot share being below water is slightly disconcerting, especially with those zone starts, but most of that came while he was spending a good amount of time with Tyler Motte and Richard Panik in the 2016 half of 2016-17. Once he came back up from the A, he spent a good amount of time with either flanking Toews and Panik or centering Panarin and Kane, and he was pretty even for the last half of the year. So yeah, the slow start hurt him overall, but the last half of the season is a better indication of who he is, and his last half of the season was really strong.
A Look Ahead: The big question for Schmaltz this year is going to be figuring out what his position is. He has the skillset to be a scoring 2C at the NHL level, but the question is if he actually he can use that skillset to play like one. He also will probably need to prove he can win faceoffs, because at present Jonathan Toews is the only center on the team I feel confident in on the dot. Faceoffs aren’t the end-all-be-all for centermen, and if he can produce as a center without winning faceoffs it might be okay, but it’s always better to start play with possession of the puck.
Luckily, he has kept the momentum from the end of last year, and has come into the preseason playing well. He definitely has looked like he can hang in the NHL as a 2c, though the preseason is definitely not the time to come to any conclusions. As I and others on this blog have already said probably 10 times, the hope is that Schmaltz starts the year between ADB and Kane, or at least ends up there for a good look at some point. That’d be a line of three playmakers, and Kane and ADB both have the finishing ability to get Shcmaltz 40-50 assists. If those three are on a line together for a good stretch of the season, I can see 50 point years from both ADB and Schmaltz.
When he isn’t between those two, he’ll likely be the 3C with any collection of Hayden, Jurco, Hinostroza, Sharp, Panik, etc. If he’s there for most of the year, look for about 40+ points, but if he’s scoring at that sort of pace in that role, it’d be time to get him with Kane at the very least. I could also see him ending up on the wing at times with Toews and Saad. I don’t think that’d be the best usage of him, but it could happen, and it might be a fit. He could rack up the points with them, too. So there’s a lot of options, and a lot of hope for Schmaltzy. Let’s hope it goes as well as we are hoping.
All statistics via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.
Photo via Nick Scmaltz’s Twitter
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2JUD9Vj7u4
2016–17 Stats
82 GP – 24 G, 29 A, 53 P
54.8 CF%, 57.8 oZS%, 42.2 dZS%
ATOI: 17:02
A Look Back: Like the first open-mouth kiss with a longtime crush, the return of Brandon Saad should be crackling every synapse in every brain of every Blackhawks fan. There simply aren’t many players like Saad in the NHL, let alone on the Blackhawks. Size in the NHL is often akin to truck nuts on a secondhand Subaru, but not with Saad, who backs up his 6’1”, 206, frame with speedy and graceful skating reminiscent of a hockey-hardened Baryshnikov.
Aside from the 2 games he played as a 19-year-old in 2011–12, Saad has never had a negative CF% Rel. Even John Tortorella, a man who undoubtedly and enthusiastically tugs at his scrotum when asked, “What’s the most important trait in a good hockey player,” couldn’t screw up Saad’s usage, try as he may. His career CF% is a throbbing 54.5, a number that hardly swooned while he played for the historically puck-allergic Blue Jackets. Last year with Columbus saw his CF% Rel at a robust 6.4, and at no point did his CF% dip below 50 in Columbus.
In his tryst with America’s astronaut factory, Saad put up consecutive 53-point seasons, peppering his stat line with his first 30-goal season in 15–16. Over the past 3 years, he’s put up seasons of 52, 53, and 53 points; and CF%s of 54, 50.4, and 54.8. He’s scored at least 20 goals each of his past 3 seasons and has missed only 10 regular-season games throughout his entire career.
On top of all the fancy numbers, Brandon Saad is the definition of the power game schmucks like me want to see in the NHL. Saad is power with a purpose, not a wild-eyed underbite. When there’s a puck buried in the corner, Saad can dig it out. When there’s a penalty to kill, Saad is no more out of place there than he is on the power play. He embodies all of the elements the PASS SKATE SHOOT HIT HIM crowds drool over without sacrificing production in advanced stat categories.
In short, Brandon Saad FUCKS.
Before we dive into the logistics of using Saad, a word on how we got him back. I won’t begrudge anyone upset over losing Panarin, who was one of the most exciting players to watch on the ice. But on the whole, Saad is so much more valuable than Panarin, it’s a bit puzzling why there was any vitriol over the trade, let alone the wailing and gnashing of teeth social media is so apt at providing. Coming into this year, the Hawks have a lot of soft spots surrounding the corps of their defensive apple, a captain who looked to be running on fumes at times last year, and a Panarin prototype in Alex DeBrincat. What they didn’t have is a back-checking, defensively responsible power forward who can be slotted anywhere on the ice and excel, after losing Hossa to a debilitating disease. Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and Saad can do both, whereas Panarin could do just one.
A Look Ahead: It’s no secret that Saad will slot with Toews and Wiener Anxiety. What that line is going to be expected to do is the interesting part.
If the whispers about a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line turn into shouts, you’d have to expect to see Saad–Toews–Panik taking on more defensive responsibilities than usual. This would affect where we end up going in terms of defensive pairings, since I can’t imagine putting anyone other than Keith–Murphy behind a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line.
Having a powerhouse like Saad could serve as a boon for Toews, who will benefit from Saad’s work below the goal line, and Panik, who figures to double as a Byfuglien-esque screener/space clearer and good-not-great defensive RW: Did you know that Panik spent exactly 50% of his time in his own zone last year, or that in his career, he has a 50.8 dZS% and a 49.1 CF%?
But perhaps more importantly, adding the defensively adept Saad to this line could give Q and Ulf Samuelsson’s hairpiece more cushion to experiment with Kempný- and Forsling-led pairings, letting them backstop a defensively responsible line with less pressure to cover for the kinds of mistakes that an eminently dynamic but defensively weak DSK line would be more likely to make.
Though my favorite part about bringing Saad back is that he brings a defensive prowess that we haven’t had since the last time he was here playing with Hossa, it’d be irresponsible to ignore his potential as a scorer. There’s two ways to look at Saad’s offense:
1. It’s consistent but topped out. Check out his point totals in each full year he played:
|
Year |
Games Played |
Goals |
Assists |
Points |
Points Per Game* |
|
12–13 (CHI) |
46 |
10 |
17 |
27 |
0.58 |
|
13–14 (CHI) |
78 |
19 |
28 |
47 |
0.60 |
|
14–15 (CHI) |
82 |
23 |
29 |
52 |
0.63 |
|
15–16 (CBJ) |
78 |
31 |
22 |
53 |
0.67 |
|
16–17 (CBJ) |
82 |
24 |
29 |
53 |
0.64 |
* All numbers rounded down
Saad will be 25 in a month. That means if he’s not in his prime, he’s coming up on it. He has one 30-goal season to his credit thus far. While the PPG consistency is good, especially considering how well he does everything else, there is reason to believe that the 50–60 point range is what you’ll get with Saad.
2. Saad’s relative stagnation was a result of playing in Columbus. When asked whether he saw himself as a 30- or 40-goal scorer, Saad responded with a resounding “Yes.” Saad played most of his time in Columbus with Nick Foligno and Alex Wennberg. While the jury may be out on whether Panik is better than Foligno (he’s probably not), Toews is surely better than Wennberg. The idea is that playing with Toews again will continue to boost Saad’s point totals, which were on the uptick each year until he went to Columbus. It’s important to note that in 2015–16, Saad had a shooting percentage (S%) of 13.3, much higher than his career 11.8 S%, which helps explain the irony of him scoring his highest goal total after leaving Toews’s side. But if he and Panik can take some of the pressure off of Toews to retrieve and control the puck, it’s possible that Toews can come out of his slog and create more scoring chances for Saad.
I tend to think that Saad’s more in the consistent but topped out offensive camp. While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much, especially if we do get a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line, since Saad–Toews–Panik will have to eat up much more time against opponents’ top lines. Still, a defensively talented power forward with strong speed and vision who can also score 55 points is increasingly rare.
In short, Saad is God, Jr. He’s more useful than Panarin. Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain. His presence should take some of the pressure off of the younger D-men like Kempný and Forsling if/when their pairings back Saad’s line up. His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.
Welcome back, old friend.
Photo Credit Toronto Star
Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com
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Let’s just run through it real quickly.
-The Hawks basically rolled out the B-team, and that was generally a problem whenever Bergeron and Marchand were out against them, or Pastrnak. But I doubt we’ll see Rutta-Forsling out against lines like that in the regular season.
-Speaking of which, it was not a night Forsling is going to put on the video reel to show his kids one day.
In the infancy of this Blackhawks era, one of the litmus tests I came across for whether you were a “real fan” was to know who Éric Dazé was. With his hulking hockey body, high expectations, and myriad injuries, Dazé inhabited the intersection of “good enough to know” and “not good enough for bandwagoners to know,” serving as a marker between the bona fides of bandwagon fans and fans “who had always been fans,” which is an eternal pissing contest that’s about as dumb as having Jordin Tootoo on your roster. Now, I’m hearing more and more rumblings about local boy John Hayden, with his hulking hockey body and high expectations, and I wonder, “Who is John Hayden, and will he be another Dazé measuring stick 20 years from now?”
2016–17 Stats
12 GP – 1 G, 3 A, 4 P
52.7 CF%, 61.9 oZS%, 38.1 dZS%
ATOI: 11:41
A Look Back: The Blackhawks signed Hayden to an entry-level contract last year, which our fearless leader Fels pegged as a move caused by being once bitten, twice shy over stairwell-shitter and professional thumb impersonator Kevin Hayes dumping the Hawks for the Rangers in 2014. When he came up in March last year, there were plaudits for his size and worries over his speed, but he managed to look OK over 12 games: a little bit better than “a guy” but certainly not a Dazé.
The most noticeable thing about Hayden after his size (6’3”, 223) was his much-improved skating. He even found himself on a line with Toews every so often, which is where he scored his first and only NHL goal. While his 4 points over 12 games is a far cry from the 34 in 33 he put up at Yale before his quick call up, the ECAC (which is the conference Yale plays in) isn’t typically a hotbed for hockey prospects.
There might be some promise in his CF%, which was 1.4% better than the team rate last year, but he only played 12 games and spent most of that time in the offensive zone. And you have to wonder whether Hayden is projected to be a “start in the offensive zone” kind of guy.
A Look Ahead: Given the likes of Saad, Schmaltz, Sharp, Wiener Anxiety, and DeBrincat, who figure to slot in and out of the top 2 lines, it’s less likely you’ll see Hayden up there. Though with DeBrincat getting into a fight at a fucking prospect tournament to show just how low his nuts swing, it’s possible that Q expects DeBrincat to SHOW MORE, which could open up a spot for Professor Hayden, who’s smart enough to see what a terrible fucking idea that would be.
For now, Johnny “The Brain” Hayden (sky point Bobby) figures to fight for a spot in the lower half of the lineup, but the only guys I’d take him over are Wingels and Tootoo, two of the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. Maybe if he impresses, he lines up on the right side on the 4th line, but then what? Q historically uses his 4th line as a defensive zone plug, and nowhere throughout his career has Hayden shown a talent or propensity for that. Hayden has made a name for himself by being the fat kid on the Kenny Hubbs team who threw 70 mph because he hit puberty at 9. That advantage goes away in the NHL.
Barring some sort of epiphany or major injury, Hayden probably slates to start the year in Rockford. If he can exceed what he did at Yale there, maybe he finds a spot on the bottom half, but again, it’s tough to see whom he replaces, since we don’t have any evidence that he can or will play the left side. But he is just 22, and he did show dedication to improving his skating at Yale, so it’s possible that he can mold his game to play as a right-handed left winger, replacing a guy like Lance Bouma if he ends up making me eat crow for believing in him. (Is this what it’s like to be a disappointed dad?)
So who is John Hayden? Hayden is a big, smart boy, but he’s no Dazé. He probably won’t be more than an answer to a trivia question in a few years (Who was the 20th Yale Bulldog to crack an NHL roster?). He’s the Atlas Shrugged of hockey players: not nearly as great as his proponents say, an overhyped tome of theoretical muck whose pedigree rests mostly on his size and standing out among the mediocre.
At least he’s got a sort of Hasselhoff handsomeness to him.
Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com
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It may sound kinda strange to say about a team that has had more success than all but one of the other teams in the NHL over the past decade, but the Blackhawks have only had a few prospects to truly get excited about in this era. There’s been Saad, Schmaltz, and of course my perfect and special boy Teuvo, but otherwise most of the prospects in the past few years have been mostly middle of the road guys, and most of those guys have ended up being disappointing. But when they were able to draft Alex DeBrincat with the 39th overall pick in last year’s NHL draft, they got probably the best scoring prospect they’ve had in a while.
2016-17 Stats (w/ OHL Erie)
Regular Season: 63 GP – 65 G – 62 A
Playoffs: 22 GP – 13 G – 25 A
A Look Back: DeBrincat has torn up the OHL for the past three years, with his best overall production coming just last season when he posted 127 points in 63 games for a 2.22 points per game average. He was essentially a lock to score a goal and assist on a goal every time he was in the lineup. That came a year after he posted 101 points (51 G, 50A) in 60 games during the ’15-’16 season and 104 points (51 G, 53 A) in 68 games in ’14-’15.
DeBrincat has played most of the last three seasons with some damn good linemates. He was Connor McDavid’s winger in ’14-’15 and spent most of the past two seasons with Dylan Strome as his pivot. It’s no secret that playing with the best player to enter the NHL in the last decade and another of the game’s top forward prospects is sure to help any player put up some major points, especially in juniors. But watching DeBrincat play makes it clear he’s more than just a passenger along for the ride with elite centermen.
He moves well in just about every sense you can think of. He’s fast and agile on his feet, and his passing ability and vision are just about elite. His wrist shot is quick, and is just about accurate enough that it could take down a buck at 500 yards. If he was 6’2″ with all of the ability, he’d probably have been a top-10 pick in 2016. Instead, he’s 5’7″, was ranked in the 20’s before falling to 39, and has critics – including everyone’s favorite HockeyBuzz fool – questioning his ability to stick at the NHL level due to his size.
A Look Ahead: Listen, I get the fascination with size in the NHL. It’s a physical game, and in a physical battle you’re probably going to favor the bigger man. But hockey isn’t a game won by hit counts, PIM, or fights, it’s won with goals, and DeBrincat can stuff the fucking stat sheet. Besides, in a league that has seen the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Tyler Johnson, Conor Sheary, Artemi Panarin, and countless others succeed while also being “undersized” (notice I omit the word “despite”), there’s no reason to think DeBrincat can’t succeed at the NHL level too.
Now that I’ve stepped down off my high horse while discussing our jockey-sized hockey players (sorry), it’s time to think about where DeBrincat fits with the Hawks moving into this year. The assumption seems to be that he’ll start in Rockford, and not for lack of reason. The Blackhawks have shown a willingness to be patient with their top prospects in recent years, and even overpatient at times. They – namely Q – have a tendency to hold their top level prospects back a few months in favor of boring ass veterans who serve no purpose other than depth. Never forget that it took an injury to Carcillo to get Saad up here to begin with, and Teuvo spent too damn long in the AHL in 2014-15 as well.
With that being said, it’s worth noting that the Hawks did not do the same last year with Nick Schmaltz, as he started the year with Chicago and ended up staying with them for most of the year, playing 61 games in Four Feathers compared to 12 in the Hog. And on a team that is damn near starved for top end forward production, if DeBrincat shines in camp (and he already got started at the Traverse City Rookie Tournament), they’d be folly to leave him out for some of the Nickelback rejects they have for forward depth.
Regardless of when he does get the nod, I think it’s inevitable that we’ll see ADB (that’s his new shorthand name and you heard it hear first, motherfucker) in the Four Feather Sweater this season, barring injury or a major shitting of his pants in the A. There are two main places I see him fitting into the lineup. One would be on the wing opposite Kane, because dammit if DeBrincat isn’t as close to Panarin-lite as it comes. He can skate and pass with Mr. Madison 2012 all day long, and is almost certainly a better fit there from the start than Patrick Sharp.
The other spot that he could slot in well would be on the third line flanking Schmaltz, who has a pretty similar playing style to that of Dylan Strome. Those two along with another fast, skilled forward (not there are a ton of them) like maybe Hinostroza could skate circles around opponent’s bum lines and create some havoc.
In terms of what to expect from DeBrincat, using Behind The Net’s League-to-League conversion method, his 2.22 PPG last season would convert to roughly 52 points in a full 82 game NHL season. If he puts up those numbers, I think we’ll all be thrilled. Hopefully he just works on his hair choices.
All Stats via Elite Prospects
Photo via a guy on Twitter
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