All analytic stats at even-strength. Info courtesy of Corsica and Hockey DB.
Game #28 Preview
With no Sam this week, Slak and John treat me like the substitute teacher that I am while we discuss the Freakout Hell Bus ride that was the last week, along with the ridiculous new lines. Get it after the jump.
With the Hawks having collected only two of the last eight points on offer, everyone is calling for Battle Stations. It’s understandable. Patience is hard to find when you’re watching the amount of teams wedge themselves between the Hawks and the last playoff spots. It’s doubly hard when you know how hard it is to climb up the standings, especially with so many teams centering themselves in the muck.
Most eyes are focused on what was the Hawks top line, though that may have changed with a simply bonkers rearranging at practice today (we’ll get to that tomorrow). Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews, and Richard Panik all have their goal-droughts or dry streaks, whatever you want to call them. We’ve gone over Saad’s “struggles” recently, so it’s time to look at Captain Marvel a little deeper.
And here’s the thing… Jonathan Toews is having a pretty good season.
I know how that sounds. Seven goals and 18 points over 27 games isn’t what you pictured. It projects out to 21 goals and 54 points, which is a touch short of what Toews has usually put up. Toews’s usual numbers are in the high-20s for goals and mid-60s for points, aside from last year. We almost have to throw out the season-in-a-can of 2013, as it’s the only season where Toews was a point-per-game and was projecting to have a 35-40 goals season over 82. It’s kind of an aberration.
If we flip up the hood, things are more encouraging than you think. Toews’s overall possession share is the highest it’s been since the last Cup season. And in relative to the team it’s the best since 2014. His xGF% is the best it’s been in four seasons, and relative to his team it’s the best in five seasons. Toews is averaging more attempts at even-strength than he has since that 2013 season. His individual expected goals is higher than the past four seasons, and in line with everything that came before his binging of 2012 and 2013.
Essentially, we’re in the same spot we were with Marian Hossa before last season. If you’ll recall, Hossa had seen his shooting percentage decrease for four straight years before last year, and we all thought that’s what we had to expect. And then last year he spasmed a 15% season and 26 goals in 73 games. It can come from nowhere.
Toews has a career-low shooting percentage at evens of 7.8%. That’s down from 8.3 last year, 8.5 the year before that, and 14.2 the year before that which is where Toews lived for most of his career. Now, this is where we could speculate he doesn’t quite have the fastball he used to, or his release isn’t quite what it was. Or maybe he’s not as accurate as he once was, but we can’t really measure that. By all the things we can measure, he’s actually getting better chances than he has in a couple years. Basically, everything is where it should be.
Toews hasn’t benefitted from the power play being a clusterfuck. He’s got one on the man-advantage this year, and he usually racks up six or seven per season. Would everyone feel a little better if Toews had 10 goals overall now and projecting for closer to 30? That would happen if he were getting his normal PP goals. Meanwhile, Toews has been doing this against some of the toughest competition he’s seen in his career.
I know this won’t make anyone feel better. Toews, Saad, and Panik aren’t scoring enough. And the explanation, “They’re just getting shitty luck,” isn’t satisfactory because you can’t really do anything about that until it simply corrects itself. And sometimes it doesn’t. But Toews is in the right end of the ice. He’s in the right spots to score. He’s getting the right number of chances. They’re just not going in.
It’s not much solace, but it’s all we’ve got. And playing him with Ryan Hartman and John Hayeden isn’t going to do much.
Admittedly, comparing what goes on between the lines/boards of football and hockey is hardly a perfect juxtaposition. These are different sports with different rules, different methods, and different aims. So let’s say that up top. But last night’s Steelers-Bengals game was particularly ugly, and could be a huge piece of evidence against the “FIGHTING WOULD SOLVE EVERYTHING!” crowd in hockey.
There are probably a couple more caveats here. First off, the Bengals and Steelers is probably football’s most poisonous rivalry at the moment. And there’s a long history. So this is the absolute extreme of the ugliness football can have on the field when two teams feel they have to “sort it out themselves.” You wouldn’t get this from say, Packers-Cardinals or something. But it’s not like hockey doesn’t have teams with ugly history where everyone is on high-alert from the opening whistle. It wasn’t so long ago that Hawks-Canucks felt more like WarGames than it did a hockey game. And it’s a good thing that hockey feels less and less like this, and you need look no further than last night to see why.
I’ll let Deadspin’s Barry Petchesky sum it up:
But they can’t police each other. Or rather, this—last night—is what that policing looks like. It’s enforcement. It’s punitive. It’s an escalating cycle of revenge. You take out our guy, we’ll take out your guy. And it doesn’t work. If it worked, if players feared retaliation, we wouldn’t see the dirty hits in the first place. But we still do. We always have.
Seeing as how Barry is Deadspin’s leading hockey guy, I think he knows exactly what he’s saying here, or at least has written very similar thoughts about hockey. Because this has always been the theory for those who can’t let go of the past. That if hockey players could police themselves there wouldn’t be any hits from behind or boardings or goalies run or whatever else.
And that’s always been bullshit. One, those things have always been part of hockey even when Dave Semenko or Dave Schultz were allowed to pile-drive anyone they saw fit and barely get a penalty for it. To wish for a simpler time in hockey when players respected each other and never did anything dirty to each other is to wish for a time that didn’t exist.
If hockey were to let this go, things wouldn’t end with “just a fight.” There would be vengeance for that fight, and on and on it would go until someone really got hurt. And what would be solved then, other than a few very insecure men in the crowd feeling their oats? Because nothing bad has ever happened from that, right?
Much like Barry goes on to say later in this post, discipline needs to be the league’s job.. And if it’s serious about player safety, which it only is to the point that it doesn’t end up in court, it would really start to get the hammer out. Radko Gudas should have gotten 20 games, if not more. Attempts to injure, and do not fool yourself because blindside hits and boardings are in most cases, need to have 5-10 game suspensions. The next Raffi Torres shouldn’t have to commit seven to eight utterly heinous acts before he gets a 40-game suspension.
But the NHL won’t because it still fears the backlash of a bunch of crusty, angry fans who are going to show up anyway. In truth, the fact that they yell the loudest almost certainly signals they are in the minority, because that’s how it usually works.
We make a pact with ourselves of course whenever we watch football or hockey (or MMA or boxing or pick whatever you want here). We know they’re highly dangerous, and really all we ask is that the players on display are fully aware of the risks they are taking. At this day and age, I think most are and are still more than happy to be out there. And we can live with that.
But last night crossed a line, and I can’t imagine I know anyone who watched Ryan Shazier or later the hits on Vontaze Burfict and Antonio Brown and felt good about it. And I know you can sit here and say Burfict is the dirtiest player in the league, and you’d probably be right. And maybe you think that makes what happened to him justified, but who draws that line? Do you think they feel that way on the Bengals sideline? Do they come looking for their own bounty in return? Who decides when it’s settled?
And that’s what hockey would look like if we returned to the 70’s and 80’s, except the players now are bigger, stronger, and faster. Trust me, Dave Schultz today would get his ass handed to him on a nightly basis (he was 6-1, 190. That makes him the same size as Patrick Sharp, basically.
It would become something no one would want except the truly unhinged. Sadly, hockey has always bowed to its unhinged quality, fearing that it cannot live without them.
The Rockford IceHogs, AHL affiliate of the Chicago Blackhawks, welcomed a couple of new arrivals to the roster last week. How have these new faces fared so far in the Forest City?
So far, the jury is out; neither has taken the ice since the roster moves were made.
On Thursday, after he cleared waivers, veteran forward Jordin Tootoo was assigned to Rockford. The next day, the Blackhawks recalled Jean-Francois Berube to back up Anton Forsberg while Corey Crawford recovers from an injury. As a result, Hawks goalie prospect Colin Delia was brought up from the ECHL’s Indy Fuel to serve as backup to Jeff Glass.
Rockford had games Friday and Saturday following a blowout loss to Manitoba Tuesday. The IceHogs defeated the Chicago Wolves in overtime before soundly beating Texas to pick up four points on the weekend.
IceHogs coach Jeremy Colliton opted not to use either Tootoo or Delia (or recent addition Robin Press, for that matter) in either contest this weekend. There could be varying reasons for this.
Let’s put the microscope to both Tootoo and Delia and see how they could factor into the mix.
Jordin Tootoo
The Hawks re-signed Tootoo this summer but he hasn’t played since training camp. He has spent the bulk of the season on injured reserve.
From an AHL standpoint, Tootoo could add a dimension the Hogs have lacked. Namely, a veteran grinder who has been around the NHL and is capable with his hands once the gloves come off.
Among the questions I have are:
- How healthy is Tootoo?
- How motivated is he to come in and bang for Rockford?
- Who sits/goes to Indy in order to get him into the lineup?
- Does the organization want him mentoring the piglets or are they content to let Tootoo and his cap hit sit in the team box for a few months?
At some point, we should get more clarity as to what Tootoo’s role on the club will be. Best case, he skates frequently, brings some toughness to a very young roster, imparts a bit of wisdom about life in pro hockey and maybe knocks in a couple of goals.
Colin Delia
Delia has struggled so far in his first pro season. His lone start in the AHL was a shaky effort as the Hogs lost in Iowa November 9. His numbers with the Fuel don’t impress; a 4.12 GAA to go with a .887 save percentage.
His last action in net was for Indy on November 25. In that start, he gave up six goals to Kansas City. While it is a good opportunity for Delia to get some instruction from the goalie coaches in Rockford, I wonder if Colliton affords him another start.
Rockford has a week of practice and a weekend home-and-home coming up with Grand Rapids. It might not be a bad idea to have Delia watch Glass on the road Friday and get his home debut at the BMO the following evening.
Another start in the Rockford cage for Delia may depend on how long Crawford is out, coupled with how much confidence the organization has in his ability to handle AHL shooters.
Other Roster News
Press has not gotten into a game since being recalled by Rockford last Saturday. Neither has forward Radovan Bondra. As I mentioned last week, however, I believe that’s due to an injury Bondra is rehabbing with the IceHogs.
Center Laurent Dauphin did not appear in either game this past weekend. He appears to have been injured in the latter stages of the loss to Manitoba Tuesday night.
Two Out Of Three Ain’t Bad-Recaps
Tuesday, November 28-Manitoba 8, Rockford 1
This one’s just as bad as it sounds. You can point to the fact that the IceHogs got 48 pucks to the net, but this was an old-fashioned keister stomp. The division’s hottest team came, saw and conquered the piglets, paced by a J.C. Lipon hat trick.
Rockford was down 5-0 late in the second when Viktor Svedberg got a puck to neutral ice that was won by Anthony Louis. The rookie forward made his way into Moose territory and punched home the only Hogs tally of the night past Michael Hutchinson at 17:22 of the second period.
Jeff Glass was left in the crease for the duration. On a night where Manitoba exploited nearly every Hogs miscue into a scoring chance, Glass was probably the only reason the Moose didn’t reach double-digits on the scoreboard. And with that, let’s just move along…
Lines (Starters in italics)
Alexandre Fortin-Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson (A)
Vinnie Hinostroza-David Kampf-Tomas Jurco
Anthony Louis-Laurent Dauphin (A)-Andreas Martinsen
Graham Knott-Tyler Sikura-Matheson Iacopelli
Viktor Svedberg-Robin Norell
Luc Snuggerud-Ville Pokka (A)
Carl Dahlstrom-Darren Raddysh
Jeff Glass
Scratches-Robin Press, Erik Gustafsson, William Pelletier
Power Play (0-5)
Jurco-Kampf-Hinostroza-Martinsen-Raddysh
Louis-Johnson-Dauphin-Highmore-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Manitoba was 2-3)
Johnson-Kampf-Svedberg-Norell
Hinostroza-Dauphin-Snuggerud-Pokka
Martinsen-Sikura-Dahlstrom-Raddysh
Friday, December 1-Rockford 4, Chicago 3 (OT)
The IceHogs blew a 3-0 advantage only to prevail in Gus Macker Time thanks to Vinnie Hinostroza’s game-winner.
Tomas Jurco got his sixth goal of the season the hard way 12:32 into the contest. Jurco was providing the screen for a Ville Pokka shot attempt. While trying to avoid the wrist shot, Jurco was struck by the puck (I’ve watched this a dozen times and still don’t know if it hit his head, chest or stick.), which then beat Wolves goalie Michael Leighton to the cord.
About five minutes later, Pokka got one of his own. As he pinched down to the bottom of the left circle, Pokka got a rebound off the end boards of a Robin Norell attempt. He then knocked it past the back door of Leighton for a 2-0 Rockford lead 17:36 into the first period.
The Hogs fourth line stretched the advantage to 3-0 3:35 into the middle frame. Carl Dahlstrom got the play started from the Rockford zone. His pass to Andreas Martinsen was quickly sent to Tyler Sikura and Graham Knott coming across the Wolves blueline.
Knott fed Sikura in front of Leighton, who stopped the initial attempt. In the scrum that followed, Martinsen was able to get the puck across the goal line for his second goal of the campaign.
From there, Chicago chipped away at the three-goal advantage. Brandon Pirri got the Wolves on the board with a power play goal three minutes later. Late in the second, Brett Sterling picked the pocket of Hinostroza at the Wolves blueline. He then scored on the resulting breakaway to cut the lead to a single goal.
Noted Hogs-killer Teemu Pulkkinen tied the game at 15:18 of the third. Pirri set up Pulkkinen’s right dot blast after beating Darren Raddysh to a puck in the corner of the Hogs zone. It now appeared that Rockford’s closest and most bitter rival could swipe two points from the Hogs.
Hinostroza prevented a total collapse in overtime, thanks to some help from Dahlstrom. After passing to Hinostroza at the top of the left circle, Dahlstrom buzzed Leighton. This prevented the former Hogs goalie from getting a clean look at Hinostroza’s snap shot. Rubber and twine hooked up to Leighton’s stick side and all was right at the BMO, save for the point the Wolves received for tying the game in regulation.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Vinnie Hinostroza-David Kampf-Tomas Jurco
Alexandre Fortin-Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson (A)
Anthony Louis-William Pelletier-Graham Kott
Matheson Iacopelli-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)
Luc Snuggerud-Ville Pokka (A)
Carl Dahlstrom-Vikto Svedberg
Darren Raddysh-Robin Norell
Jeff Glass
Scratches-Robin Press, Erik Gustafsson, Laurent Dauphin
Power Play (0-3)
Jurco-Kampf-Hinostroza-Martinsen-Raddysh
Louis-Johnson-Iacopelli-Highmore-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Chicago was 1-3)
Johnson-Kampf-Svedberg-Norell
Hinostroza-Knott-Snuggerud-Pokka
Martinsen-Sikura-Dahlstrom-Raddysh
Saturday, December 2-Rockford 6, Texas 2
Rockford made a clean sweep of the weekend against the Stars, who had won five straight entering the contest.
Texas took a 1-0 lead into the first intermission on a Roope Hintz power play goal late in the opening twenty. Thousands of BMO fans stood by the ready to hurl stuffed animals onto the ice. It wasn’t to be in the first period, however.
The teddy bear tossers would have to wait nearly half the game to send their furry offerings to the ice surface. There dreams were realized when Anthony Louis broke Rockford’s 0-35 home power play slump with a snipe from the right dot. Vinnie Hinostroza provided the primary apple on the play, which tied things up at a goal apiece 8:01 into the second period.
At that point, the cover was blown off of Stars goalie Landon Bow’s net. Moments later, Matthew Highmore took a drop pass from Carl Dahlstrom at he bottom of the right circle. His shot fought it’s way through Bow’s pads and trickled across the goal line at the 9:55 mark.
The Rockford advantage increased to 3-1 late in the second when Louis created a turnover along the right side of the Texas zone. His pass was blasted past Bow from the slot by William Pelletier at the 18:06 mark.
Goal number four came 2:32 into the third, courtesy of some nimble skating by Hinostroza. In a play we’ve become accustomed to seeing, Hinostroza wove around the offensive zone before backhanding a pass to Darren Raddysh. Raddysh came across the goal mouth for a backhander that Bow stopped with his pads. Persistence paid off for the rookie defenseman; Raddysh simply collected the rebound and guided the puck to the back of the net.
Luc Snuggerud got in on the butt-kicking fun 11:38 into the third. The genesis of the scoring play came from behind the Stars net, where Highmore had sent the puck after winning a battle in the corner. Alexandre Fortin passed out to a wide-open Snuggerud in the high slot. The shot was true and Rockford led 5-1.
Former IceHogs forward Mark McNeill scored for Texas at the 14:00 minute mark, but that’s as close as the Stars could get. Tomas Jurco finished the scoring for the evening with a between-the-legs backhand past defensman Gavin Bayreuther and into an empty net in the closing minute.
Hinostroza (first), Louis (second) and Highmore (third) were the three stars of the game.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Vinnie Hinostroza-David Kampf-Tomas Jurco
Alexandre Fortin-Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson (A)
Anthony Louis-William Pelletier-Graham Kott
Matheson Iacopelli-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)
Luc Snuggerud-Ville Pokka (A)
Carl Dahlstrom-Vikto Svedberg
Darren Raddysh-Robin Norell
Jeff Glass
Scratches-Robin Press, Erik Gustafsson, Laurent Dauphin
Power Play (1-6)
Jurco-Kampf-Hinostroza-Martinsen-Raddysh
Louis-Johnson-Iacopelli-Highmore-Pokka
Penalty Kill (Stars were 1-4)
Johnson-Kampf-Svedberg-Norell
Hinostroza-Knott-Snuggerud-Pokka
Martinsen-Sikura-Dahlstrom-Raddysh
Grand Rapids Home-And-Home Primer
Rockford will have several days to prepare for a weekend home-and-home with the defending Calder Cup champs, the Grand Rapids Griffins. Friday’s game is in Michigan, while the teams come to the BMO Harris Bank Center Saturday night.
Detroit’s AHL affiliate has had a tepid start (9-10-0-3) to the season, but the Griffins have endured slow openings to dominate the Central Division in the past. The Griffins beat Chicago 5-2 Saturday night to break a five-game losing streak. Like Rockford, Grand Rapids has five days off before dropping the puck Friday night.
The IceHogs are currently 3-0 against Grand Rapids. Rockford owns a pair of 3-2 shootout victories on October 20 and November 18 to go with a 4-3 come-from-behind win at the BMO October 28.
Friday’s tilt will be the first of the season between the two teams at Van Andel Arena, where Grand Rapids has toiled to a 4-6-0-1 record. Last year, the Hogs were 1-4 in that building, for what its worth.
Matt Puempel came over from Hartford early in the season and is pacing the Griffins offense with 17 points in 21 games (7 G, 10 A). Eric Tangradi is a big, physical winger who can fill the net, so he presents problems for Rockford. Tangradi has three goals and an assist against the Hogs to date this season and could well be a factor in how Rockford fares this weekend.
Tyler Bertuzzi is a hard-nosed player who is currently on a three-game point streak. Matt Lorito and veteran center Ben Street are also players to watch.
On the defensive side, Westmont native Robbie Russo has had two successful seasons under his belt with Grand Rapids. He has a pair of goals and seven helpers so far in 2017-18. Dylan McIlrath is a rugged presence on the blueline for whom the Hogs don’t really have a counterpart.
Jared Coreau and Tom McCollom are both familiar faces in net for the Griffins. Its likely the IceHogs could see both goalies this weekend.
Follow me @JonFromi on twitter to catch IceHogs happenings all season long.
It’s been a grueling week. The Hawks have barely tread water over these last five games, and they’ve lost their best player due to some unspecified injury (groin, don’t you think? When it’s a goalie I always think groin. Don’t read into that statement). And this hell week ended with an exhausted whimper tonight, which left me feeling more pity than anger. To the bullets:
– So Panik didn’t get benched tonight but rather demoted. OK, whatever, the top line certainly needs to get better. But who got moved up? Was it the guy second in points and second in goals who needs faster linemates? Oh no, oh no no no, you silly person who thought that. It was John fucking Hayden. Now, in all fairness, Hayden hasn’t been playing all that badly (hey, he’s got nine points). Also, there are legit reasons to keep DeBrincat on the third line where he’s been making Heart Man better. But, if Q is going to start tinkering with the top line, the fact that he’d pass right over the chance to at least SEE what DeBrincat could do with Toews and Saad seems, well, both stubborn and stupid, which is the worst combination. And then Q went back to Panik late in the third and Toews scored…so what was the point of that change anyway?
– Fatigue showed tonight, as the Hawks started really slowly. By the mid-point of the first period they had managed only one shot. They finished that period with a paltry three shots. But they picked it up in the second and actually passed the Kings in shots. And they led in possession for the first two periods, 55 CF% and 65.7 CF% respectively. Seriously, it was fucking with me. I kept looking at it and, as we say around these parts, I was angry at numbers. How could the Kings lag in possession and yet still be driving the play? Or at least thwarting the Hawks’ many decent attempts in the second? Jonathan Quick was a big part of the answer to that, obviously. And once Folin scored the first goal in the third period, you could see the weight of the past week descend over them. Even Toews’ pyrrhic goal couldn’t change that momentum.
– The power play went 0/4 and continued to suck. You’re tired of hearing it, I’m tired of writing it, and yes the Kings’ PK is the best in the league. But it still sucked. No one could keep the puck in the offensive zone—I mean at times it was laughable. Some other great unintended comedy? On their first man advantage of the game, the Hawks managed to take a too many men penalty while they were on the power play for that very same penalty. It was very meta.
– Anton Forsberg is like the proverbial Rodney Dangerfield. If you look at his record with no context you’d dismiss him outright, but he’s actually played well. Tonight was no exception. A screen and some deer-in-headlights play by Forsling led to the first goal, but other than that he was spot on (the other two goals were empty netters so you can’t exactly hold those against him). He had a great sequence of saves midway through the second, and at no point did he really lose his net. This guy deserves much better.
– Speaking of a deer in the headlights, Brian Campbell is utterly unwatchable as an analyst. My esteemed colleague Adam brought this up after last night’s game, and I have to wholeheartedly agree. Campbell looks nervous and tongue-tied at every moment. And you know what? I don’t hold that against the guy—I can’t even imagine what a moron I would look and sound like on camera—but that’s why he shouldn’t have this gig. This team is cringe-worthy enough as it is; their on-air personalities needn’t be too.
So where to from here? The Hawks have a much-needed few days off, and then a sort-of-maybe soft part of the schedule (after the Capitals) with some relative bottom-feeders like the Sabres and Coyotes. However, now they need all of those points more than ever, and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about where the season goes from here. No, I’m not trying to be over-dramatic and there is still a lot of season to go. But it’s been, as I said, a rough week where they kinda got dong-whipped, so let’s all pause, and try to get back on track next week. Onward and upward.
Quote of the night (actually it’s a tie because you’ve got to get a load of this amazing insight by Campell):
“Little mess-up by the LA guy there.” –Brian Campbell
“Because I can’t remember anything, I got some help with that movie.” –Pat Foley
Beer de jour: It was an all-Fort Collins night: Accumulation IPA by New Belgium and 90 Shilling by Odell. (Actually it was me rummaging through the fridge to see what was left over from the weekend, but it should tell you something about my beer inclinations.)
vs 
Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
He Could Really Make It If He Just Got His Shit Together: The Royal Half, JFTC
As the Freakout Hell Bus Ride of 5 games in 7 nights comes to a close on West Madison tonight, the Hawks are looking to avoid losing their fourth straight game after having gone 1-1-2 so far, with the resurgent Kings now waiting for them as the capper.
Ever since the Kings first Cup, and totally ramped up by the Kings-Hawks Double of ’13 and ’14, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews have been handcuffed together. They’ve been essentially the same player every since they came into the league a year apart. Toews was the slightly better goal-scorer, Kopitar the slightly better playmaker. They were clearly the heartbeat of multiple Cup winners. Toews was a dominant force in ’13, and Kopitar dribbled Toews’s head like a basketball in ’14.
And being a year older, Kopitar seemed to hit a wall a year before Toews did. In ’14-’15, Kopitar dropped to just 16 goals and 64 points, both the lowest since his rookie year. Toews was racking up another ring. And then Toews followed Kopitar into the dungeon of age, failing to register 60 points for the first time since his rookie year.
Neither of them improved last year, and both faced serious discussion if they’re dominant days were over. And it was more than just an individual question, because both meant so much to their teams that if they were done being premier #1 centers in the league, it almost certainly meant their teams’ time as true contenders were over as well.
The hope for Hawks fans is that with Kopitar always being a year ahead of Toews, his renaissance so far this year is a harbinger of what Toews can do on the donkey end of the age of 30.
Kopitar comes into tonight’s game at over a point-per-game, and some of his underlying numbers are the best they’ve been since the Kings’ last run. His relative-Corsi again over +3.00, a hallmark of his days as the Hart candidate no one bothered to stay up and watch (including his simply other worldly 61% mark in 2014). His expected-goals relative to his team are up as well from the last two years, but where the numbers jump out is his individual ones.
Kopitar is averaging three more attempts at even-strength this year than he has in the past three seasons, and in line with his 2012-2014 heyday. His individual expected-goals is up to 0.77, which again is way higher than he’d put up the past three years.
Has there been some luck? Oh, sure. He’s shooting 21% at evens and 19% overall. That’s not going to continue. And Kopitar is still tasked with facing the toughest competition the Kings see. Even at just 30 to ask someone to combat top lines and score like a top line seems an awfully big ask.
Clearly, Kopitar has benefitted from the presence of rookie Alex Iafallo. While Iafallo’s numbers aren’t impressive, his game that has real dash and creativity has allowed Kopitar to not have to create and score his own chances. Last year, Kopitar spent most of the season with clinically dead Marian Gaborik and clinically dumb Dustin Brown. The year before that Kopitar was dragging around Brown and Milan Lucic, and you’d be hard pressed to find bigger dummards to have as wingers. Combined with Darryl Sutter’s system, Kopitar was basically forced to try and bulldoze everything. Even Brown is scoring now, getting to just stand around while Kopitar and Iafallo exploit openings. They can be more expressive.
The coaching change has also been a boon, as Kopitar is now allowed to carry the puck through the neutral zone and even try to enter through the middle, something Sutter would have sentenced Kopitar to shit-shoveling duty at the Sutter Farm for in the past. Kopitar has more freedom ever, and drawing defenses to him gives more space to Iafallo, who can actually do something with it unlike Lucic or Gaborik checking his investment portfolio.
Cleary, a coaching change isn’t going to help Toews anytime soon. But realizing a center with that many miles can no longer do everything, giving him a dynamic winger to take some of the creation pressure off seems to have been the trick for Kopitar. Would DeBrincat be that for Toews? Sadly, we may never find out.
Game #27 Preview
Once again we had to dig up one of our favorite lunatics on Twitter to find out about the Kings. Follow Aaron @atf13atf.
The Kings sit atop the Pacific. They have a +19 goal difference. Anze Kopitar is a point-per-game again. Certainly much better than last year. What’s been the change? Is it simply the one behind the bench?
It probably is just the personnel behind the bench, both a combination of new voices (Offensive Coordinator Pierre Turgeon) coming in and old voices going out (such as Sutter, and Davis Payne who is now in charge of the Sabres’ 30th ranked power play). Stevens has been an assistant since the Terry Murray years in 2010, but finally gets his shot to run things. In a league where every team tries to win every game 2-1, Darryl Sutter’s attempts to win every game 1-0 had grown stale.
Dustin Brown – 21 points. What kind of god allowed this?
When the team went through eastern Canada a month into the season, every article about Brown (and Kopitar) concluded that they each looked like a piano was removed from their back. Alec Iafallo, definitely someone I’d known about before training camp ended, has been a revelation with a bunch of scouts saying they missed him. I’m sure Brown’s 13% shooting (and especially Kopitar’s 19%) to come down a bit, but at least their contracts look somewhat above water again.
Who is Adrian Kempe?
Called up last season to try and get some scoring going, which was ultimately useless when Sutter played him about 90 seconds a night. Not to be confused with his brother Mario Kempe, Darcy Kuemper, or Matt Kemp. Looking good so far this year with Toffoli and Pearson.
The Kings have gotten yeoman’s work out of Jonathan Quick. Certainly full health is a part of it, did the rest of barely playing last year also contribute? Have you noticed him doing anything differently?
A wise man named Cieslak once said, “Book is out on your goaltender. He’s only gonna stop between 90 and 95 percent of shots faced. The league knows all about it.” Quick, who’s been much closer to the 90% than anyone expects for oh, half his career now, is sitting at his same .929 from 2011-12. I guess having an intact groin helps these guys.
So is this start for real or are the Kings riding a top line and their goaltending brilliance and will crash down?
Their shooting percentage is above average, ish, even with Jeff Carter out for still another couple of weeks. The goaltending has definitely carried them a bit, but the games don’t look over if they go down 1-0 in the second period. They’re certainly watchable again, a marked improvement over even the Cup years.
Prediction: J-F Berube shuts out his old organization. I redeem my giveaway Chick-Fil-A coupon this week after the Kings take the required five penalties.
Game #27 Preview
There was a time when Dustin Brown was one of our favorite players. He was a true bowling ball of a forward who could give you 25 goals. When rumors popped up of the Kings looking to deal him and the Hawks at least kicking the tires, our glee rose to a near dangerous level.
It didn’t happen, and then Brown’s feet fell off, and he was basically nothing more than a construction horse with elbows. He couldn’t get there, and all he could do was cross-check, elbow, and high-stick his way into anything of note. The only memorable thing he’d done in years was nearly ruin Tomas Hertl’s career before it had a chance to really take off with a wandering knee.
And that’s how it’s supposed to happen. A power forward only has a short window of usefulness, before the miles and bruises combine to reduce them to an angry traffic cone. You’re supposed to look like Milan Lucic now. Or Corey Perry now. Or Scott Hartnell now.
So what the fuck is this? Brown has 21 points already. He hasn’t had more than 36 in a season since ’11-’12. He has 10 goals already. He hasn’t had more than 18 since that same season. This is not how it’s supposed to go. Players like Brown are supposed to get old and decrepit so we can laugh at them and make up for the years of longing and jealousy we had. Brown is depriving us of that this year. They’re supposed to get bought out and wash up in Arizona or Florida or Vancouver and fill out their days being a step behind the play and scoring the one goal in a 5-1 loss in January.
The one thing we can hold onto is that Brown still has four years left after this one on his ridiculous $5.8 million per year contract, and is still a buyout candidate down the line. Brown should be taking notes from Marian Gaborik, who’s been nothing more than a reverse-ATM for a few years now. This is bullshit.
Follow the script, Dustin.
Game #27 Preview
