Everything Else

Game #34 – Hawks vs. Stars: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels 1323 0

All stats at even-strength unless noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey. 

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

Game #34 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

 

Everything Else

They Actually Got One Stabilized

By Sam Fels 2957 0

It’s rare that the NHL gets good news when it comes to arena deals and stability. And sometimes, like Calgary, it’s them basically dropping eggs on their own face repeatedly. But it did today when the New York Islanders announced that they won their bid to build a new arena at Belmont Race Track, over NYCFC. I can only imagine the day the railbirds are going to have after getting beat out of a Pick Four by a 30-1 and then walk barely a quarter mile to yell at Nick Leddy for three hours. Actually, that sounds like my perfect day.

While I haven’t seen the ins and outs of the deal, it appears the Islanders and their partners are going to finance this one themselves, which is a real upset. I’m sure there are tax breaks galore involved here, and the land being owned by the racetrack probably puts in further complications. And of course the Isles have to figure out where they’re going to play after next season when the Nets and their Russian nutjob of an owner punt them out of the Barclays Center like Otto squatting in the Simpsons place. And based on their attendance, the Islanders might only leave some mustard behind.  Yes, I just mixed my Simpsons metaphors. Sue me.

Still, this is good news, and there’s something unique about the Isles staying on the Island. First off, Belmont is accessible by train from the city (believe me, I know), so those who are coming from there aren’t out of luck like they were getting out to Nassau. But it’s closer to the team’s base on The Island, so that’s a win for everyone.

It took my compatriot Matt McClure pointing it out to me, but the Isles are maybe one of two remaining neighborhood teams in American sports. A team that isn’t identified with a city per se, but a specific area of a metro area. The other would be the baseball team here that plays on the Southside. No, I’m serious. There’s a baseball team there. I’m not kidding! And they’ve got a real nice park with great food. You should totally go. You can find Fifth Feather there still yelling about Todd Frazier. No one’s told him he’s been traded, and we’d prefer if you didn’t either. It’s funnier this way.

The Northside Nine are basically a national brand at this point, and have been for a while. They belong to Iowa and Nebraska and beyond thanks to WGN. While the Isles attempted to move their “neighborhood” to Brooklyn, Brooklyn is 4th biggest city in America by population. This isn’t the Dodgers anymore. You all think of a certain type of Brooklyn-ite, and he’s probably got a mustache and a wool cap in July and such. But that’s just one facet of it.

I guess the Mets could be considered a neighborhood team, and they have the same colors as the Isles, but no one wants to actually claim the Mets. They’re the Moosylvania of sports.

LA’s never had that, because everyone hates Orange County and it’s not a “neighborhood” so much as a “hellscape.” The Clippers and Lakers have either played in the same arena or two arenas that are really close to each other. The A’s and Giants have that identity, but Oakland is a huge place. I guess within the Bay Area, the A’s have the biggest identity in their little place of it, but Oakland is still a city.

Good for the Isles, and good for their collection of fans, even if Long Island is the reason we still have Billy Joel to bother us and also might be the genesis and biggest example of “white flight.” One of the appeals for soccer fans like me and others is that teams are so much more closely identified with where they’re from. Even if it’s a citywide team, there’s a real connection and feel there that sometimes American sports loses out on. Partially because we know how easily they’re moved around. But the Isles and the weirdness that they’re the only ones that come from this specific place and will return there, that has a place. An anti-New York City feel to it is what helped give the Isles their identity. And they’ll get it back.

No, seriously, there’s a baseball team on the Southside. You don’t have to look it up.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – December 19th

By Sam Fels 1689 0

First Screen Viewing

Jets v. Predators – 7pm

With the Jets suddenly in the targeting area and the Hawks about to find a shooting solution on them, this one seems pretty important. The Hawks have a game in hand on the Jets and are four points back. Get dinged in Music City and suddenly the Men of Four Feathers are going to get awfully big in the rearview mirror (HEY BUDDY!). The Predators are rolling these days, and look to be the class of the West and even though the Blues are tied with them in the standings I’m not sure it’s close as to who is better. Seeing as how the Preds have three games in hand on the Blues, you can see why. They’ve won six of their last seven, and somehow their one loss was to Vegas, though that was in a shootout. If the Jets still have designs of running with the big dogs, and it would be adorable if they do, they kind of need this. Lose in reg, and it’s a five point gap with the Preds having two games in hand. That’s kind of a massive gap.

Second Screen Viewing

Capitals v. Stars – 7:30

The Stars are a point behind the Hawks, but things haven’t really clicked yet as you have a roster designed for high-event hockey with a coach who couldn’t be more allergic to that. They’ve been ok, but the goaltending isn’t holding up and you could see the floor drop on it. The Caps have no such problems, as they’ve been on fire can’t can’t stop getting rubber into twine (HEY BUDDY!). Everyone is scoring on this team, and Ovie might be headed for 50 again. The past couple years we would have marked this as a potential 4×400. That would cause Hitchcock to choke on his two-pound cheeseburger, so we won’t get that. But we will get some intrigue.

Other games

Red Wings v. Islanders – 6pm

Ducks vs. Rangers – 6pm

Wild v. Senators – 6pm

Bruins v. Sabres – 6:30

Panthers v. Coyotes – 8pm

Canadiens v. Canucks – 9pm

Lightning v. Knights – 9pm

Everything Else

The Thinking (Or Drinking?) Man’s Awards

By Sam Fels 2698 0

I like to do this every so often. I’m not sure it makes total sense, and it certainly would make more sense to do it in a couple weeks when the season is half over. But I’m here now and it’s rattling around in my head so let’s do it and circle back in a month or so.

Some of the NHL awards, or more to the point the criteria that are used to pick the winners, are borked. There’s no other way to put it. MVP… that’s usually easy to figure out as long as you don’t get too mired into what “valuable” means and really just pick player of the year. I suppose this year, at least so far, we could get a real dumb debate about how Kucherov and Stamkos are actually vaulting each other and hence aren’t as valuable as say, John Tavares who’s doing more with less. Fine, whatever. Pick any of the three and I don’t think you’re wrong.

Vezina is usually pretty easy, though can get muddied by win totals much like pitcher-wins used to be the defining characteristic for Cy Young winners in the past (like last year. Fucking Rick Porcello?). Still, with save-percentage and GAA are the best we have, and this year it’s Corey Crawford and if he keeps it up and doesn’t even make the finalist list I’m going to go kick several people in the shins and not explain why to leave them in the same fog of confusion I will be in. By any measure it’s Crow, as he’s got the best GAA among starters, the best save-percentage among starters, and the best difference between his save-percentage and his expected save-percentage, given what the team in front of him is surrendering. Good god, he’s been so good.

It’s the Norris and the Selke that always have the cloudiest parameters. The Selke has basically become “What center do we all know who scores a lot, wins faceoffs, and we’re pretty sure has good metrics but don’t check?” And that answer is always Patrice Bergeron. And you could hand this award to Bergeron from here until he retires, take Nick Lidstrom’s last Norris away because that was just stupid, melt it down, turn it into another Selke, and give that to Bergeron, and you wouldn’t really be wrong. But I think we can do better. Let’s see:

So if we’re looking for best defensive forwards, one place we can start is the best forwards at restricting attempts against so far this year. We won’t use goals, because that’s too dependent on the goalies behind these forwards which is out of their control. So you’re best forwards for corsi-against per 60:

  1. Adam Lowry – WPG
  2. Taylor Leier – PHI
  3. Brandon Tanev – WPG
  4. Mikko Salomaki
  5. Pierre-Luc Dubois – CBJ

I can assure you that none of these players will get a Selke vote. But when they’re out there, their teams surrender the least attempts, which has to account for something.

If we go a bit deeper, we can use xGA/60, to not only use pure attempts but the types of chances against that these forwards are on the ice for.

  1. Lowry
  2. Tanev
  3. Jason Zucker – MN
  4. Oskar Sundqvist – STL
  5. Mikko Koivu – MN

Again, we see Lowry and Tanev at the top of the list, and as they play on the same line together, that makes sense.

But it isn’t so simple, is it? Because you’d want to suss out who are doing really dynamo defensive work and who is just benefitting from playing on a great defensive team. So, you’re relative CA/60 leaders are:

  1. H. Sedin – Van
  2. Tanev
  3. Evgeny Dadonov – FLA
  4. Marcus Kruger – CAR
  5. Lowry

And Relative xGA/60 leaders:

  1. Ondrej Kase – ANA
  2. Lowry
  3. Mitch Marner – TOR (ain’t that some shit?)
  4. Zac Rinaldo – AZ (what?)
  5. Carl Hagelin – PIT

So if anyone actually used these numbers, you’d have a pretty convincing case for Adam Lowry this year, yes? The problem of course is that Lowry is skating third line shifts, with Scheifele and Little taking on the harder competition. Yes, Lowry is kicking aside everything he’s seeing, and that shouldn’t be discounted, and he’s also starting the most shifts of anyone in his own zone. So even though he has to start in his own zone the most, he’s making sure the least happens there. So yeah, right now, if the world made sense, Adam Lowry is your Selke front-runner. Don’t sit on a hot stove waiting for any voter to actually say this, though.

The Norris is a bit harder. Or it’s easier, because you could just hand the thing to Erik Karlsson, along with the three others he should have gotten but didn’t because voters were either MJ’d/LeBron’d out or they’re fucking xenophobes or both. But unlike the Selke, you do have to consider the whole package. Karlsson hasn’t won as many as he should because every so often voters decide merely scoring from the back end isn’t enough, and conveniently forget that Karlsson just pushed everything to the other end of the ice all the time and made life easier for everyone.

If this went how this normally went, John Klingberg or Tyson Barrie would get it because they’re the highest scoring d-men. But again, we know better now. We don’t get to vote, but we know better.

So if we wanted to find the overall best d-man, Corsi-percentage would be a good place to start. Who’s preventing attempts and generating more at the same time? Don’t worry, you’ll like this. Your top five d-men in CF%:

  1. Connor Murphy – CHI (funny, don’t hear Mark Potash complaining about the Hjalmarsson trade at the moment)
  2. Noah Hanifin – CAR
  3. Mark Giordano – CGY
  4. Zach Werenski – CBJ
  5. Dougie Hamilton – CGY

Man, that feels good. But like we did with the forwards, let’s go with xGF% too to see the types of chances that are being surrendered and generated as well:

  1. Brandon Davidson – MTL/EDM
  2. Tim Heed – SJ
  3. Roman Polak – TOR (No, I’m serious)
  4. Jared Spurgeon
  5. Yohann Auvitu – EDM

So this is no help. Aside from Spurgeon, these are four d-men who are skating third pairing minutes and are heavily sheltered. And they play on possession-dominant teams for the most part. So let’s do the relative thing again. First relative Corsi-percentage:

  1. Hampus! Hampus! – ANA
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Josh Manson – ANA (He’s mad… he’s glad…)
  4. Werenski
  5. Giordano

And relative xGF%

  1. Hampus! Hampus!
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Christian Djoos – WSH
  4. Murphy
  5. Drew Doughty – LA

Basically I want to hand the Norris to Murphy because… well, because. And if we’re going strictly but non-points and non-goals, there’s a case. There’s probably a stronger one for Spurgeon or Hampus, and you can throw Giordano and Werenski on the list, but you see what we’re doing here. Both Hampus! Hampus! and Murphy have the best relative corsi-against as well, if we’re going by straight defensive metrics as that’s in the job title. I’ve never thought that was fair, because d-men shouldn’t be punished for contributing offensively, but it’s fun to mention. Murphy also has the best relative xGA/60, and Hampus! Hampus! is 3rd.

Basically, Connor Murphy has been fucking excellent, and if hockey had a Fangraphs-like site that people paid attention to, I would spend all my time making his Norris case and dealing with the laughter. And Hampus! Hampus!’s, because I like saying, “Hampus! Hampus!”

Also, you should be pronouncing “Connor Murphy” just like Chappele’s Rick James said, “Charlie Murphy!” right before he punched him.

 

 

Everything Else

High On The Hog: Power Outage

By Jon Fromi 1985 0

The Rockford IceHogs, AHL affiliate of the Chicago Blackhawks, have been struggling on the power play. No…perhaps that doesn’t do this unit justice.

Toothless? Impotent? These are probably better ways to describe the period of time when the Hogs have an opponent in the sin bin.

Rockford’s success rate on the power play is dead last in the AHL though 28 games. The IceHogs are drawing cord just 11.8 percent of the time. This was capped off by an 0-13 stretch in this past week of action.

The piglets managed to pick up a point but dropped all three contests. A power play goal could well have turned two of those losses into wins. Alas, power play scoring has been problematic over the past two months.

Rockford began the season with quite the efficient group, posting a power play goal in seven of its first nine games. This culminated in a four-goal effort in a win over Grand Rapids October 28 that pushed the success rate to 22 percent.

Since that evening, the Hogs are 4-83 when up a man. That’s 4.8 percent. Which sucks.

Rockford coach Jeremy Colliton has remained pretty calm when talking about the power play, though he has tried to remedy the problem with some different looks. This weekend in San Antonio, for example, Colliton sent out five forwards as his first unit. The experiment did not bear fruit. In fact, that group gave up a shorthanded goal Sunday afternoon that wound up being the game-winner for the Rampage.

Sometimes the puck movement is there; other times the Hogs look fearful to leave the perimeter. All Colliton can do is continue to tinker with combos until something clicks.

 

Roster Activity

Rockford has been fortunate in terms of health this season. The last few weeks, however, have seen some IceHogs out of the lineup for extended turns. Scott Powers of theathletic.com got Colliton to dish on the status of several players who have missed time of late.

First off, Jordin Tootoo shouldn’t be expected back for a while despite being sent down to Rockford last month. Apparently, Tootoo has aggravated the injury that saw him on the IR list to begin the season in Chicago.

Goalie J.F. Berube, who suffered a left leg injury December 9, looks to be out for about a month. Jeff Glass started all three games for the IceHogs this past week. Will Colin Delia get a start? Rockford has back-to-back games this weekend, then three in a row to close out December. If Delia isn’t in net for one of those games, I would have to assume that the organization lacks confidence in him right now.

Erik Gustafsson, who has missed Rockford’s last nine games, is nearing a return. Colliton was non-committal on a target date for the defenseman, though it sounds like it will be before the end of the calendar year.

Defenseman Luc Snuggerud has missed the last four games. This, plus Ville Pokka being recalled to Chicago last week, leaves the IceHogs a bit thin on the blue line.

Brandon Anselmini was recalled on December 10 and saw his first action against the Wolves last Tuesday. He left the game in the third period after taking a hard run into the boards but was on the ice for both games in San Antonio this weekend.

 

Recaps

Rockford dropped three games this week, scoring just three goals in three games. The point they collected Friday in San Antonio has them tied for second with Iowa in the Central Division standings. Overall, the IceHogs are 15-11-1-1 in 2017-18.

Tuesday, December 12-Chicago 2, Rockford 1 

A very late Wolves goal brought Rockford’s four-game winning streak to a unsatisfying halt.

The Wolves got on the board 5:03 into the game. Teemu Pulkkinen fired on Hogs goalie Jeff Glass. The shot was stopped, but the rebound came out to Brandon Pirri in the slot. Firing into a wide open net, the ex-IceHogs forward put Chicago up 1-0.

That lead survived until Rockford won an offensive draw midway through the final frame. Carl Dalhstrom fired from the point; Anthony Louis provided the redirect past Wolves goalie Maxime Lagace at 732 of the third.

It appeared that this game was headed for overtime. The Hogs made a final rush that got broken up and became a Chicago rush the other way. Paul Thompson got off a backhand shot from the slot that got over Glass with less than a second remaining to give the Wolves the win.

Lines (Starters In Italics)

Matthew Highmore-Tanner Kero-Luke Johnson (A)

Anthony Louis-David Kampf-Alexandre Fortin

Matheson Iacopelli-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen

Graham Knott-Laurent Dauphin (A)-William Pelletier

Carl Dahlstrom-Viktor Svedberg

Darren Raddysh-Robin Norell

Brandon Anselmini-Ville Pokka (A)

Jeff Glass

Scratches-Luc Snuggerud, Robin Press, Erik Gustafsson, Tomas Jurco, Jordin Tootoo, Jean-Francois Berube

Power Play (0-3)

Kampf-Kero-Louis-Highmore-Dahlstrom

Dauphin-Knott-Johnson-Raddysh-Pokka

Penalty Kill (Wolves were 0-3)

Dauphin-Kampf-Pokka-Norell

Kero-Highmore-Dahlstrom-Svedberg

Sikura-Martinsen-Pokka-Norell

 

Friday, December 15-San Antonio 2, Rockford 1 (SO)

Jeff Glass was a hard luck loser for the second straight game, stopping all but one of the 36 shots he saw in regulation and overtime. It wasn’t enough as his counterpart, Ville Husso, made 43 saves to beat the Hogs.

The Rampage got the games first tally 8:27 into the second period. Julien Nantel took a pass from Adam Musil, skated around Glass’s net, and banked home a shot off of the Rockford goalie’s back.

The IceHogs would even the score late in that period on a quirky play. Faced with too many skaters on the ice in the eighteenth minute, San Antonio attempted to right the problem. In the confusion, Andreas Martinsen was able to gain possession of the puck between the benches.

The Rampage’s Duncan Siemens collided with an official, giving Martinsen a clear path to the San Antonio zone. Martinsen skated to the top of the right circle before attempting to snap a shot off toward Husso. Whiffing on this try, Martinsen collected the gaffe and fired for real. The shot beat Husso to the far post at 17:53 of the second to knot the game at a goal apiece.

Siemens, possibly enraged at the turn of events, took a run at William Pelletier shortly after the resulting center ice draw. Coming to Pelletier’s defense was Laurent Dauphin, who dropped gloves with the big defensemen and received a cut for his effort. Dauphin returned for the third period with a full cage.

Glass and Husso kept the score where it was through the remainder of the contest. In the shootout, the lone put to draw cord came off the stick of San Antonio’s David Warsofsky in the final round. Rockford shooters David Kampf, Anthony Louis and Luke Johnson all came up empty as the Rampage picked up the point of contention.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)

Anthony Louis-David Kampf-Tomas Jurco

Matthew Highmore-Tanner Kero-Luke Johnson

Graham Knott-Laurent Dauphin-William Pelletier

Carl Dahlstrom-Viktor Svedberg (A)

Robin Norell-Darren Reddysh

Brandon Anselmini-Robin Press

Jeff Glass

Scratches-Luc Snuggerud, Erik Gustafsson, Matheson Iacopelli, Jordin Tootoo, Jean-Francois Berube

Power Play (0-6)

Jurco-Kampf-Louis-Highmore-Kero

Dauphin-Johnson-Knott-Dahlstrom-Raddysh

Penalty Kill (Rampage were 0-4)

Jurco-Kampf-Dahlstrom-Svedberg

Dauphin-Knott-Dahlstrom-Svedberg

Sikura-Martinsen-Anselmini-Norell

 

Sunday, December 17-San Antonio 4, Rockford 1

Special teams figured heavily into what went down as the IceHogs third straight loss.

San Antonio grabbed a 1-0 lead 8:19 into the game on a Kenny Agozzino power play goal. The IceHogs evened the score 8:55 into the second period. As was the case in the previous game, the goal was scored by Andreas Martinsen on a bit of a fluky play.

Martinsen took advantage of Rampage defenseman Chris Bigras losing an edge as he was about to corral a pass from Tage Thompson in the San Antonio zone. Martinsen collected the turnover at the right dot and got a wrister past goalie Spencer Martin for the equalizer.

The Hogs had an opportunity to take the lead on the man advantage with San Antonio’s Alex Belzile in the box for tripping. Rockford’s fourth power play of the game yielded a goal; just not for the IceHogs.

Trent Volgelhuber took control of a long rebound in the Rampage zone and led a shorthanded rush. With five forwards on the ice, Rockford was slow to get back. The resulting two-on-one ended with Chris Butler beating Hogs goalie Jeff Glass high on the stick side. San Antonio took a 2-1 lead at 7:28 of the third.

Rocco Grimmaldi separated Robin Norell from the puck behind the Rockford net and slipped it past Glass at the 15:12 mark for an insurance goal. He added an empty-netter to close out the scoring.

Glass stopped 37 of 40 shots but took another hard-luck loss.

No lines for this one; I went to the movies. The Hogs went 0-4 on the power play, including 1:42 of five-on-three time, and gave up a game-winning shorty. I believe I made the correct choice.

 

Weekend Preview

The IceHogs will be at home this coming weekend. Next on the schedule is a pair of division matchups with familiar opponents.

Friday night, the surging Chicago Wolves pay yet another visit to the BMO Harris Bank Center. Rockford has split the first four games of the season series. Both of Chicago’s victories have come in regulation, including the last-second win Tuesday.

It’s Teemu Pulkkinen (9 G, 15 A) and Brandon Pirri (8 G, 13 A) at the forefront of the Wolves offense. Paul Thompson has five points (2 G, 3 A) against the Hogs this season. As of this weekend, Chicago has won five straight.

On Saturday night, Rockford hosts Grand Rapids, who are currently last in the Central Division. The Hogs have won all five contests between the two teams this season.

Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for thoughts on the IceHogs all season long.

Everything Else

Game #33 – I’ll beat your ass if I beat your ass twice and you still here – Blackhawks 4, Wild 1

By Adam Hess 3223 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The Blackhawks absolutely embarrassed the Minnesota Wild tonight, which is actually harder than you think because the Wild do a pretty good job of embarrassing themselves, usually. To the Bullets-

– The second line was extremely good tonight, dominating the Wild just about every time they were on the ice. They were a threat to score each time they had the puck in the offensive zone, and even Anisimov showed some flashes of fleet-footedness tonight, which was weird but cool. The Hawks first goal was the result of Nick Schmaltz putting yet another pass perfectly in the wheelhouse of Patrick Kane. I will never get used to how nice it feels to see those two go to work together.

– Just to elaborate on the end of that last bullet, I am fully convinced that Schamltz is a better running mate for Kane than Artemi Panarin ever was. Panarin had the speed to keep up with Kane and the shot to put away his good passes, but he isn’t nearly as creative with the puck as Schamltz is. Kane and Yeast Mode did have a great chemistry, but it looks like he has similar chemistry with Schmaltz already. The only change that needs to happen is getting Schmaltz moved to the pivot on that line, but with how well it’s working right now, I’m hesitant to call for too much tinkering.

– Jordan Oesterle has been a pleasant surprise lately. He’s looked good the past few games, and had another good game tonight, including a dime of a pass to spring Kane for the Hawks second goal. He was rewarded with 19 minutes of ice time, third among the Hawks defensive corps. He’s signed through next year at just $650k, so this might be a nice little signing by StanBo. Thanks, Edmonton.

– I know you don’t need me to tell you, but Crawford had another great game tonight. He nearly screwed up in the first period, but recovered well, and then was just his normal solid self the rest of the game. He did have a sweet save on Joel Eriksson Ek in the third period, absolutely robbing him with a stabbing glove save.

– Ryan Hartman showed some more skill tonight with a great, tight quarters goal in the third. He made a nice steal on the boards, and then just went hard to the net before getting creative and scoring from about 5 feet in front of Alex Stalock with a nifty quick shot that was just about impossible to stop. It was the kind of play the Hawks need from him more often – just going to the net and making things happen. He is everything Andrew Shaw was, but with more actual hockey skill, so if he can just embrace a bit more a Shaw-esque mentality (outside of being a shitheel individual) it will result in good things for him and the Hawks.

– Five wins in a row, and two straight over division opponents, is a nice way to head into the upcoming six-game road trip. Here’s hoping they keep the momentum going into that trip.

Everything Else

Game #33 – Wild vs. Hawks Preview, War On Christmas – Don’t Want To Know If You Are Lonely

By Matt McClure 1992 0

 vs. 

Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Paisley Park: Hockey Wilderness

After a brief and suprisingly victorious jaunt to Manitoba on Thursday, the Hawks return home tonight having now had a couple days worth of rest, and will face of against the Wild, with whom they are tied, who played last night, and are beat the hell up by injuries.

Everything Else

Game #33 – Wild vs. Hawks: Spotlight – With A Name Like Zucker…

By Sam Fels 2927 0

If you’re sick of Jason Zucker, we wouldn’t blame you. First of all, he needs to decide how he wants people to pronounce his name, because it’s run the gamut. More to the point, if it feels like he kind of murders the Hawks, you wouldn’t be wrong there either. The stats say in the regular season, it’s only been eight points (five goals) in 20 games. Feels like more, right? Part of that is the Hawks were finally able to keep him quiet last year, with no points in four games. Still, he’s been a nuisance.

Zucker is on pace to have his career-best season this campaign. He already has 14 goals, his career-high is 22. He has 25 points already, his career-high is 47. Yes, he’s been awfully hot this season, and a 20% shooting-percentage isn’t going to stick around forever you wouldn’t think.

More to the point, Zucker isn’t getting the same number of attempts he has in the past few years, averaging just 11 when the past three years he’s averaged between 14-16 attempts per game. His individual expected goals are down as well per game, so he’s riding the percentages a bit. What Zucker has been able to do is maintain his possession numbers while the team’s around him has collapsed. Zucker’s relative numbers have sky-rocketed, case in point being that Zucker’s relative expected goals-percentage is +12.1 over the team-rate, fifth best in the whole league.

And if you’re GM Chuck Fletcher, you’re kind of hoping Zucker’s agent doesn’t point that out this summer.

Zucker is a restricted free agent after the season, which pretty much blows for him. Should he be able to keep grinding down the railing of high-percentages, he’d find himself a 30-goal scorer and 55+-point man at the age of 26. On the open market, that’s a $5 million-a-year player. But Zucker isn’t going to be on the open market.

And he’s on a team that’s going to have no space at all. The Wild are already up against the cap right now, thanks to their Monty Python-foot-like deals to Parise and Suter. They don’t get much relief after the year either, as only Chris Steward, Matt Cullen, and Daniel Winnik’s deals come off the roster. That’s only about $3 million to play with. Rumors of the cap going up must have Fletcher with some kind of Jobu-like shrine in his office, praying to whatever god can make that true. Because the Wild also have to re-up Matthew Dumba, and seeing as how they punted Marco Scandella away to elevate his role, you’d best believe they’re not going to give up on him.

If the cap went up $3 million or so, with the three they have coming off the books, the Wild might be able to play hardball and get both Dumba and Zucker in for $3 million each. It’d be a slight raise for each, but you’d have to think that both want more than just a mere percentage-point raise.

And this is where if the NHL didn’t have an unspoken, collusion-lite system of no offer sheets things would get awfully interesting. Part of the reason there are no offer sheets is that the compensation system for them is utterly insane. As stated above, Zucker might prove to be a $5 million player. But if you were to offer him that, it would cost you four first round picks. In any kind of vacuum, you’re not trading four first rounders for what is at best a second line winger. If you were to offer Zucker $4 million a year, an amount the Wild might simply not be able to match, that still costs you a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Again, for a second-line winger. You’d have to think this is something the NHLPA will revisit in a new CBA. That is, if they had a clue.

Look for some contentious negotiations this summer between the Wild and Zucker. They simply can’t give him more than $3 million, and he’s earned more than that. Would the Wild allow Zucker to bet on himself for a one-year deal and then go UFA in the summer of ’19? The Wild system is actually stocked. Jordan Greenway looks to be eying that spot as soon as next year.

Wonder if the Wild might think about a trade this season? Stay tuned.

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