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Game Time: 6:30 CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN (Chicago & National), WGN-AM 720
Mom’s Spaghetti: Winging It In Motown
With the homestand that spanned the the bye week now sufficiently flushed down the crapper, the Hawks hit the road again for their inaugural visit to Little Caesar’s Palace in Detroit, or The House That $5 Hot and Readies Built, to face the Red Wings for something that is supposed to vaguely resemble a rivalry.
You’ve probably heard all the complaints and conspiracy theories about baseball’s offseason. Be it tanking teams, teams that are only “tanking,” collusion, analytic front offices, whatever the cause you might think has led to everyone being quite bored. But if anyone actually paid attention to hockey, or if the players had a union worth a shit, the case of Andreas Athanasiou this past summer would have generated similar talk, especially considering the inaction of everyone else.
Athanasiou came off his rookie year when he played 64 games and scored 18 goals. Hardly Earth-shattering, but given that he’s perhaps the fastest skater in the league and his age, there’s certainly a lot of potential there. A player a lot of teams would certainly like to have in their holster, for sure.
And then he sat. And sat. Now, this is where you’d have to interject that Ken Holland boned himself with a lot of stupid contracts and simply didn’t have the money to pay Athanasiou what he probably deserved. This wasn’t a GM playing hardball, at least not totally. More like the hardball hit him in the head and Athanasiou was left to deal with the dizzy GM afterwards.
But then again, Holland didn’t have any reason not to even if he had the cap space. As Athanasiou was only a restricted free agent, he basically either had to take whatever the Wings offered him, or go to the KHL. It’s quite a league where your promising young players have to threaten going to play in Russia, where they assuredly don’t want to go, just to get anything near the money they’ve already earned. And according to reports this wasn’t a massive gap. Athanasiou wanted somewhere around $2 million.
Hey, we’ve been on both sides of this. We’ve been critical of Stan Bowman and the Hawks awarding contracts to their players well before they had to. The trade of Brandon Saad, the first time, was another example of the Hawks not wanting to play hardball. The system is rigged to let teams do that, and without any punishment. They can play chicken and never have to swerve.
Because no one came for Athanasiou. How many teams could have used a middle six winger with this speed and scoring instinct? All of them? Damn close. And as the Wings only had somewhere around $2 million in space, an offer of more wouldn’t have been beyond most GMs, and compensation would have been a first and third round pick.
And that’s a twofold problem. One, any player making $2-3 million per year, with exceptions, are not going to be worth a first and third round pick, at least to most GMs. The compensation levels are ridiculous. If you go above $3 million, it’s a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Think about a player making $4 million. Probably a 20-goal scorer, yeah? Second pairing d-man? Second tier starting goalie, maybe? Is that worth three draft picks? Then again, that depends on what you think of draft picks, because they develop a lot weirder than they do in baseball. It’s a hard system to judge, but GMs horde them like leprechauns to gold even though most of them don’t have any idea what to do with them.
But for someone it should have been. The Oilers are missing wingers everywhere, they couldn’t give up a couple picks for Athanasiou, who is certainly better than a lot of wingers they have? We could go down the list here. Isn’t Athanasiou the idealized version of Vinnie Hinostroza? What would have been the better signing for the Flames, him or Jagr?
But GMs don’t do it, and it’s not just the compensation. There’s a gentlemen’s agreement that restricted free agents will never be poached. Shouldn’t this be some sort of collusion? Except the compensation is in the CBA and could always be pointed to. It robs the players of all leverage until they’re 28 or so unless they want to go play in a lesser league thousands of miles from home. How can that stand? The idea of an offer sheet is to provide some sort of leverage for younger players and it’s been taken away from them by an unwritten agreement between GMs.
This would be something that the NHLPA should go after in the next negotiation. But you know how that will go.
Game #49 Preview
Not that much has changed since the Hawks laid an egg against the Wings 10 days ago. So here’s what we asked JJ From Kansas then. You can follow him on Twitter @JJFromKansas and read his work on WingingItFromMowtown.com, if you really feel the need to mentally injure yourself.
Game #45 Preview
Lineups & How Teams Were Built
Game #49 Preview
We couldn’t pick him out of a lineup. We had to check how to spell his name a couple times. Apparently, the Red Wings have some shaved ape they called up to play wing on occasion and his name is Luke Witkowski. He has 50 penalty minutes in 18 games. That makes him fourth in the league in penalty minutes per game, behind three real Aristotles in Derek Dorsett, Cody McLeod, and Michael Haley and just ahead another bridge troll Tom Wilson.
We’re trying to figure out why. We get it, you have to live in Detroit and and play on this terrible team and maybe you’re angry. But of course that’s never the story in hockey.
Witkowski has played parts of four seasons in the NHL, three in Tampa and this one in Motor City. And clearly he’s under the impression if he goes around measuring himself in a way that only truly stupid men measure themselves that’s the way he’ll stick. And it sure is doing the Red Wings a lot of good. They might have finished last instead of 6th without this kind of SANDPAPER.
Are Larkin and Mantha more protected because this dolt is on the bench? We’re guessing not because he’s played more than 10 minutes in a game exactly once out of his 18. And normally he’s in the three-minute range. So who does the help? Certainly not the other wingers who soak up his time and then jumble the lines.
Where else but this dumbass world would a player gain the outlook, and usually rightly so, that if he just takes enough fists to the face that he can stick in the top league? Would baseball let a reliever stick around because he threw at hitters who like, bat flipped one too many times? Maybe the NFL needs a gunner on a punt unit that also likes to try and rip guys heads off in the pile and after a whistle, but it’s unlikely. Guys like this get laughed out of the NBA.
What makes it funny is how counter it is to what used to be the Red Wings philosophy, who left this all behind when they were good. But now they suck, so they resort to this, we guess because they have nothing to lose. Remember when Don Cherry claimed that the Wings’ attendance woes was because they didn’t have a Kocur or Probert anymore? How we and they laughed. Was he right?
While it’s sad when someone’s dream dies, Witkowski clearly isn’t good enough to be in the NHL. That makes him like millions of others. So cast him out. This does no one any good.
Game #49 Preview
Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes
CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60
CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against
G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes
xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.
PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.
Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against
Game #49 Preview
Do you remember wanting to do a fatality in Mortal Kombat II on Sega Genesis, but the combo was 15 buttons long and you were fucking 10 so you couldn’t finish it on time? That’s what this game was. To the bullets.
– Brent Seabrook had an eventful game. Like a post-binge-drinking shit, it started off nice, then turned into a wet pile of unidentifiable slop. The PP goal was a thing of beauty, the half-assery on the missed icing call can be forgiven, but after that, I sat wondering where all that $7 million leadership we keep hearing is so integral to the Hawks’s success was. I wanted so badly to write about what a great game he had—because early on it was good and I want him to turn it around so bad—but in a microcosm of his year, he managed to back down from a strong start and settle into a disappointing finish.
I’m not here to blame the outcome on Seabrook, but it’s hard to argue against the idea that the air came out of the team after the Leafs’s first goal. If the organ-I-zation is going to justify suiting up Seabrook by pointing to his leadership, that botched call is a perfect spot for him to showcase it. Instead we get a whole lot of yelling at the linesman and a report from whoever’s filling in for Pierre that there’s no talking, no urgency on the bench for the Hawks at all. I don’t want to get too sucked in to things that we can’t quantify, so I’ll borrow a line from Q and say I want MORE from Seabs there.
– The first PP goal was a case study in why setting up behind the net is typically a good idea. Credit Wide Dick for swallowing the faceoff impasse, and Schmaltz and Vinnie for having the wherewithal to move the puck behind the net. Vinnie’s awareness on Seabrook’s positioning gave Seabrook all the time in the world to do one of the things he’s always been good at, and he buried the shot off a deflection.
– Speaking of Vinnie, we may have a new candidate for the Kris Versteeg position. You can credit him for the Hawks’s second PP goal, when after what seemed like a decade, he fulfilled every 300-level meatball’s dream (I include myself in this description) and simply shot the puck at the net. One bounce, one Anisimov sweep through the crease, and one inability for the NHL to make the rules regarding goaltender interference clear to even the referees let alone the fans later, Schmaltz had tied the game. The way this team has played, you would have felt safe betting that Vinnie would try to throw the puck to an empty spot on the ice, but he didn’t. On top of that, he exploded from that point onward, setting himself and Keith up for few nice opportunities that they just couldn’t finish. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.
– DeBrincat–Toews–Duclair did everything but score, which at this point isn’t just a cute saying. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that when given linemates who aren’t medically required to masturbate with down-lined gloves, Alex DeBrincat is quite the playmaker. He and Duclair had several anus-clenching instances in the first and second periods where the pass was either just a fraction too slow, the angle was a bit too sharp, or Andersen simply had a play to make. If Toews can be bothered to set his internal clock to the same time as everyone else instead of assuming he has more time than he does, I can see this line destroying the Earth, which means Sharp and Bouma will be with Toews tomorrow.
– I want to say I’m getting itchy about Saad, but it might just be angst at this point. The underlying numbers are strong and he’s still a force in transition. But he’s on pace for a mere 40 points this year, which would be the lowest he’s had since his 27 during the Season In A Can. I like the idea of him with Schmaltz and Kane, but after the first period, that line seemed to fade into the background a bit. This is less a call for change and more a vain cry of desperation for the Man Child to pull a Hossa and carry the team.
– Through the first 14:44 of the game, the Sharp–Anisimov–HEART MAN line had a 0 CF%. They bumped it up to 30–20–30 by the end of the period and ended the game with a 50–40–50, but that doesn’t really answer what this line does. This isn’t a complaint so much as a resignation that the depth just might not be there for the classic 3-and-1 setup the Hawks like to run.
– The Jurco–Kampf–Vinnie line is the Hawks’s Autobahn, in that they go really fast just because and put punctures in your furniture from the grip you have to hold when they’re out there. Kampf also saw extended time on the PK and didn’t look horrible doing it. If I were a gambling man, I’d bet on Kampf being Quenneville’s Kruger going forward.
– Glass Jeff was fine for a guy who’s spent most of his career flying through nine time zones to play hockey. You get what you get with him, and there’s really no excuse for losing games against the Ning and the Leafs when he allows just two goals apiece. It’s hard to get mad at him for the shootout diaper crapping, because without a top-tier goaltender, shootouts are a crapshoot.
– I’d like to dedicate an entire bullet to what a gigantic, braying, shitting horse’s ass Mike Milbury is. I don’t know who finds his “back in my day” drunk-uncle schtick charming, but this dinosaur-riding assnose is the pinnacle of insufferable. Anyone who enjoys or even tolerates his continued employment as anything other than “guy who gets stuck in a porta potty while people who are somehow lesser-rank assholes tip it over” ought to be drawn and quartered. He couldn’t wait five minutes, and I mean that literally, before implying that the Hawks lost the Hjalmarsson–Murphy trade. The fact that this rockhead has the mental faculties to imply anything at all would be impressive if the thing he were implying weren’t categorically false. What an outrageous and unabashed dickhead.
It’s hard to get mad about games like this because this is kind of what the Hawks are this year. They managed a point when they needed two, but some of the younger guys—Schmaltz, Duclair, Top Cat, Kampf, and Vinnie Smalls—looked more or less good doing it. This season may not be what we wanted, but there are still bullets in the chamber. Whether they fire them this year or next is anyone’s guess.
Beer du Jour: High Life for this low life.
Line of the Night: Mike Milbury implying the Hawks would be better with Hjalmarsson than Murphy. I’m not dignifying his actual words by going back and listening to them again. Fuck him.
vs. 
RECORDS: Maple Leafs: 26-18-5 Hawks 22-19-6
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: NBCSN
YOU RUINED MICHAEL BRADLEY: Pension Plan Puppets
The homestand that was supposed to be the turning point of the season has proven to be just that, except not in the way the Hawks assuredly hoped. They’ve mangled it just about as badly as they could, with only a victory over the Jets standing out as anything worth remembering. The Hawks might not have completely fucked themselves over yet but let’s just say they’re awfully contorted. They won’t be getting much sympathy from tonight’s opponent either.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have spent a fair amount of time lately going, “This is not my beautiful house,” as well. This was supposed to be “their year,” but both Tampa and Boston have domed them in the standings and they are buried in third in the Atlantic, where they’re likely to stay.
The thing is, the Leafs are a little better off than they were last year at this point, it’s just there are better teams in the division this time around. Secondly, all the joy has been seemingly sucked out of them, which has a lot of knives and arrows pointed at Mike Babcock. It might not be fair.
The Leafs aren’t quite the same, good-time-boys act they were last year when they seemed NBA Jam on ice at times. But they’re creating the best chances in the league, they’re just not burying them as much as they did last year. They also aren’t very sturdy defensively, despite Babs’s best efforts, so it’s not like Leafs games are completely boring. There’s a lot of action in both ends.
But that hasn’t stopped the players themselves from sniping at each other, with both Frederik Andersen and Auston Matthews wondering what the give-a-shit level is from their teammates in their own end, and overall, in the press. It’s just not a terribly happy bunch. Throw in Babcock’s love affair with Roman Polak and Leo Komarov, and you can see where the angst level has gone in the red in T.O, a place where the angst level is always high to begin with.
The Leafs of late haven’t been helped with injuries, as both Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev are out. This wasn’t a great blue line with them, lacking a true #1 pairing, and their absence has made that clear. It has forced them to call up Travis Dermott, probably their best defensive prospect which has quieted the rabble a little bit. The fear is that when the top two return he’ll still sit behind Polak, and having watched Polak do his circus bear act in St. Louis you probably understand how frustrating that can be.
For the Hawks, looks to be that they’ll roll the same lineup out as Monday’s loss to Tampa, and that’s probably as it should be as it was a good effort that just ran aground against the league’s best team. But we don’t know when Glass Jeff will be Glass Jeff again, and against this firepower that the Leafs have you’re still not awfully comfortable. Saad-Toews-Duclair will get another chance to impress, and they’ve looked good without scratching in the past two games. But that’s been the story the whole season, ain’t it? And what does it matter if you don’t have the end product? No one wants to hear about the labor pains they just want to take their picture with the baby and such (unless you’re my mother who never hesitated to make it clear how much pain I caused, in labor and beyond).
All may be lost as is. Seven points is a massive gap in this participation-trophy-NHL. But if the Hawks are going to make anything of this, and they don’t really have a choice because there isn’t a path to “giving up” or “selling,” it has to be right now. Get something going into the All-Star game and come roaring out of it. The schedule after the break is not exactly forgiving, but the Hawks biffed all the other chances when the schedule was soft. This is your charge, accept it or don’t.
Game #48 Preview
We love to destroy idols around here. It’s kind of our thing. So we relish the chance to spread our fire (HEY BUDDY!) outside Chicago. And for the first time in a while, there are sharper looks being directed at Mike Babcock. Then again, everyone who works in Toronto eventually gets turned to ash. They all eat their young up there.
The Leafs are entrenched in third place in the Atlantic. They’ve been passed by the Bruins and are five points behind them and have played four games more. They won’t be caught by anyone either, but third place and a tricky first round matchup with Tuukka Rask and Patrice Bergeron is not what Leafs fans had in mind when this season started. It’s probably not what they sold Patrick Marleau in July. The natives are a tad restless.
The case against Babs: The strange use of his roster. Currently, the existence of Leo Komarov and Roman Polak has pretty much every Leafs fan putting their heads through various pieces of drywall. Polak has been terrible since about 2009. Komarov averages second line minutes with his one non-empty net goal at even-strength. He averages more time than Mitch Marner. It’s certainly grinding on some people.
Second, the Leafs have become a touch boring. They’ve scored more than three goals just once since the Christmas break. For a team boasting this much firepower, that sure does seem to be askew.
Third, Babcock’s rep may be overblown. He hasn’t seen anything past the second round since losing the Final with Detroit in 2009. And the thinking goes that with that roster, you couldn’t help but get to a couple Finals. And while he did get the Anaheim Ducks to a Game 7 in a Final once, that team didn’t finish with 100 points. As soon as his Detroit roster started to age and decline, he didn’t have many answers. A couple victories over the Coyotes doesn’t impress people much, nor does beating Bruce Boudreau at home in a Game 7 because everyone does that.
Still, it’s never that simple. For one, the Leafs have the best xGF/60 in the league. So they can’t be boring. Their shooting percentages in their last 10 games are as follows: 7.6, 11.1, 7.6, 0.0, 7.8, 3.2, 6.7, 5.5, o, 15.7. Only two of them are above their season rate, and they outchanced their opponents in seven of those ten games.
Secondly, even if Babs would like to be more boring, the Leafs have the third worst xGA/60 in the league, even worse than the Hawks. If Babcock wants to lock it down, he’s got a funny way of going about it. Then again, that’s probably a strike against him.
But with this blue line, there isn’t much for him to do. Morgan Reilly and Jake Gardiner are fine, but neither are top pairing material yet. Neither is Nikita Zaitsev. Maybe one or more will be one day, and now Reilly and Zaitsev are hurt. The forwards aren’t much help, given their youth and attacking instincts.
The fact that the Leafs are having to overcome their blue line shouldn’t be a surprise. It isn’t to many. And they’ve been bailed out as Freddy Andersen is having a wonderful season, so things could and probably should be worse.
Is Babs reputation maybe a little overstated? Yeah, probably. Try not to win a gold medal with the Canadian squads he’s gotten to coach. And he still thought Alex Pietrangelo was a better bet than PK Subban. He’s got one ring, though was inches from another. And as we know around here, rings don’t necessarily equate to genius, so much as good fortune.
Babcock will be judged by what goes on in April and May. And we doubt Leafs fans are going to be too pleased with Babcock’s now normal first or second-round ditch-out. Then again, Lou Lamiorello isn’t going to probably care either way, and for sure Brendan Shanahan won’t.
Game #48 Preview
We can’t give you his name, as he’s shrouded in secrecy. He used to run PensionPlanPuppets, but now he just sits in a dark room plotting his revenge. You can follow him @MLSE, if you dare.
Game #48 Preview
