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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Spotlight: Teach Them How To Get Dougie A Norris

By Sam Fels 2044 0

If you’re number-y like we are, then you’ll come to realize that over the past two seasons, you’d be hard pressed to find a better d-man in the West than Dougie Hamilton. In fact, you could make an argument he’s been better than anyone else, even Erik Karlsson.

Over the past two years, no d-man has a better relative Corsi mark or relative expected goals percentage than Dougie Hamilton. And it would be easy to chalk that up to playing with Mark Giordano, himself deserving of Norris consideration for a long time now.

However, it’s Giordano who suffers more without Hamilton than the other way around. Last year they spent nearly 300 minutes apart. In that time, Hamilton was still a 51 CF% player. Giordano was 47%. Together they’re 56%. This year they’re at 58%, though Giordano is doing better in the odd shifts without Dougie this time around. Still, as you can see they’ve been utterly dominant together, and without them this Flames team would probably have already moved to Quebec and no one would have really cared.

What makes the Hamilton-Giordano pairing is it’s not the usual puck mover/center fielder dynamic that most teams go to. They’re kind of the same guy. Both can really skate, both like to get up the ice, and both can get back and recover themselves when they have to. They’re both all over the ice, which you’d think would leave them really open but they both are mobile enough to recover. Which makes you wonder if this isn’t how pairings will be constructed going forward, as Ryan Lambert went over yesterday on Puck Daddy talking about the Leafs.

Thanks to Giordano, it’s unlikely that Hamilton will get too much consideration. It’s the dreaded “split-vote” phenomena. One will take votes from the other, and everyone will vote for Drew Doughty just because Kings fans keep bitching. But whatever you ask of a d-man, Hamilton is doing it as well or better than everyone. It should be him and Hampus Lindholm. It will be Subban (which is fine) and Klingberg because their leading their teams in scoring.

Which makes you wonder why teams seem intent on trading him. As we all know, Boston didn’t want to sign him and shipped him off to Calgary for three draft picks, none of which have made it up yet to The Hub. Sure, the Bruins look to have recovered by there still doesn’t seem to be a Chara-succession plan and Hamilton would have been a big part of that. And the Brandon Carlo dream will end one day. Earlier this season and over the summer there were rumors flying that the Flames were looking to move him along as well. He must be a raging asshole or something.

Somehow, Hamilton is only 24 and with Giordano looking this spry the Flames look to be set for a long while at the back. If they can somehow get the plague that Travis Hamonic has become and cure T.J. Brodie, they’ll be even better off. It’s an expensive top three though, clocking in at a combined $17 million combined. This might be the reason the Flames thought about moving Dougie along. They don’t have anyone to pay yet this summer except for Mikael Backlund, but if underlying numbers are used in contract negotiations then he’s getting a raise from his $3.5 million. It’s the summer after that that could be worrisome, when Ferland and Tkachuk are up. The Flames need a rising cap, for sure. Though they’ll probably just cry poor thanks to their arena and try to use that to get the city of Calgary to pay for a new one.

Either way, whatever the Flames do this spring is probably going to be on the back of Dougie, whether they want him or not.

 

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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Q&A: Mike Pfeil of HockeyGraphs And The Underworld

By Sam Fels 2703 0

Mike Pfeil is a stats-y guy at Hockeygraphs.com. He’s also a weirdo. So he’s our type of guy. Follow him @MikeFAIL. These were the questions we put to Floob on Saturday, and now Mike gets his chance. 

Last time we saw the Flames on New Year’s Eve, they were just hovering around the last playoff spot, not meeting expectations, and still waiting to take off. A month later, they’re hovering around the last playoff spot, kind of not meeting expectations, and waiting to take off. Why hasn’t it come to a boil in Calgary?
The power play for starters, something that has approached near-catastrophically disappointing levels. On one hand, you still Dave Cameron, who hasn’t been encased in concrete and tossed in the Bow River. On the other hand you have Glen “Glenny G” Gulutzan being seemingly cognizant to the folly in front of him yet not solving. There’s enough talent at forward to not play Troy Brouwer on PP yet he does it again.
Also there’s the part where they’re chokers. Some would say that’s “mental fragility” and “they don’t know how to hold a lead.” I say they’re the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.
Do we know if Glengarry Glen Gulutzan falls into the “Moron” category or “Not A Moron” category yet?
He’s a slightly-slightly-above average coach at 5v5. Most coaches and the impacting of coaching is indiscernible from others. If you look at their 5v5 systems (last year, specifically) it was an easy observation to say “Yeah, he’s definitely better than Bob Hartley.”  This year it’s weird and I think part of it comes from fan expectations, often bordering on unrealistic; some systemic changes that have hurt them, specifically in relation to how they struggle at shot suppression relative to last year; and some bets on players that haven’t worked like Michael Stone, Travis Hamonic, Brouwer (continued usage), Sam Bennett, and sub-optimal depth.
At least there’s Dougie Hamilton, right?
I fucking love that man. Well, minus the chud-ass Barstool shit he said a few weeks ago. Shout out to everyone who hates that fuck heap website. Play him at 5v4 more than any other defenseman and maybe things will improve. Seriously.
 
The Flames don’t seem to be in a position to just punt on the season given their development curve, so what might they do at the deadline? And are you afraid it’ll be stupid?
Going after Mike Hoffman or an actual top six RW scoring threat would be nice. Rick Nash would be neat on retained salary providing his acquisition cost isn’t absurd, but it’s doubtful. Maybe you can fleece Ken Holland, who might be struggling to realize what year it is and pry out a Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyqvist for cheaper than expected? All that said I’m as afraid as others, but I’m emotionally checked out… providing they don’t acquire Zack Smith. Don’t do it.
Given that the Kings actually suck and the Ducks are weird, the Flames really should still get into the Pacific’s three playoff spots, right?
Yes, undoubtedly, providing they don’t continue shitting the bed. They’re going to shit the bed aren’t they, Sam?

 

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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Still An Airhorn With Stupid Hair

By Sam Fels 3166 0

This is the last chance, barring a very unlikely playoff meeting, we’ll get this year to once again rail against the “reputation” of Brian Burke. We don’t know if Burke has a lot of pull in the Flames organization anymore, or if he’s just there to make the press feel special and manly or whatever the fuck he claims to do.

Whatever it is, he got there on a wave of bullshit.

Burke’s rep is basically built on being bellicose all the time, and making old, stuffy hockey writers achieve half-tumescence for the first time in years because he talks about things like grit and fight and heart and everything that makes the same noise you do after a bathtub of chili. Burke threatens to fight other GMs of course and always talks a tough game, which leads you to believe if he was ever actually confronted he’d empty his bladder into his shorts.

Burke’s acumen is wildly overstated. While he drafted the Sedins and Ryan Kesler and traded for Roberto Luongo, the Canucks never made a conference final while he was steering that ship. And he traded for Todd Bertuzzi, which tells you just about everything you need to know.

His Cup win in Anaheim is bullshit, too. That team was already constructed when he got there, and all he had to do was take someone else’s assets and get a want-away Chris Pronger out of Edmonton. Real hard job, there. Remember, the Ducks had been in the Final just three seasons before.

And of course, he did exactly nothing with Toronto who didn’t get good until they turfed him but good. The only Burke picks that matter on the Leafs right now are Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly.

And let’s not even get to all the ways Burke has fist-fucked over Team USA in Russia and in the World Cup, making his 2010 squad clearly a goof when he was too drunk to pick his normal team.

All Burke basically is Bob Pulford with an ability to string more than four words together. And dumber hair. The Flames would be better off with him locked in the same room that the Hawks deposited Pully that he can’t escape.

 

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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels 1747 0

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

 

 

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Jonny…Angry Jonny…This Is Hawks Fans In Hell…

By Sam Fels 2437 0

Well if Poe reference doesn’t officially mark me as too fucking old, nothing will. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

It seems the way of the world these days is that we have to have a referendum on Jonathan Toews every couple of months or so, if not more often. Certainly it’s hard to think of a non-Seabrookian player that’s been more scrutinized this year than the captain. Of course, that comes with the territory of being the captain. You are the barometer, the forefront, the focus. And this is the first time in Toews’s career he’s been under a serious microscope. Even last year when he wasn’t matching his usual points-total, he had a dominant two months in the season and the Hawks were winning. Now he’s not producing and they aren’t winning. The hot lights are only getting more so.

And sadly, there’s little I can add here that’s any different than the last time we did this. A lot will scoff, and I won’t necessarily blame them, but analytically Toews is actually having a better season than he has in the past four. It’s his best CF% season in four, his best relative CF% in four, his best expected goals season in four, best relative in that as well, he’s averaging more attempts personally than he has in five seasons, and his individual expected goals is higher than it’s been in four seasons. These are the numbers.

Toews hasn’t been helped by the fact the power play has been a Chicago construction site for the whole season, though he obviously takes some responsibility for that as well. But say we penciled in ten more points on the power play, three goals and seven assists for him, if this unit was even mediocre. Suddenly Toews’s numbers are 17-26-43 in 52 games. Maybe not what you’d come to expect from Toews because of his past, but that would hardly be bad.

Toews is also somewhat being held up to an impossible standard, namely his simply unconscious season-in-a-can of 2013. Not only was he dominant, he also got a little lucky in terms of his own and the team’s shooting percentage as well. Keep in mind he was on pace for a 43-goal, 83-point season if that one was a full 82, with a 58% Corsi and stupid 62% expected goals. No one’s keeping that pace up.

Toews has seen his shooting-percentage at evens dip for the past three seasons, to the point where just like Marian Hossa we wonder if this isn’t just the new normal. Toews used to be anywhere from 13-16% at evens, and this is his third straight season of being around 8%. Again, it’s hard to pinpoint why this might be. He’s getting the same chances and the same quality of chances, if not better, but they’re not going in. We can’t really measure his release, accuracy, or velocity, and none of these are getting better as the pressure mounts.

Another thing we can’t measure is just how much Toews was asked to do in the past is weighing on him now. Yes, everyone points to the amount of games but that’s hardly the whole picture. After the ’15 season, and even during it, when Marian Hossa’s decline started for real, Toews’s job description became that much harder. Not only was he expected to carry out all his defensive duties low in his own zone, but he also had to be the first forechecker into the offensive one because Hossa just wasn’t getting there like he used to. Or he at least had to get their quicker because Hossa couldn’t Atlas a forecheck by himself for as long as he used to. Because really, who could?

It’s was shaded somewhat by Saad helping out in 2015 with the heavy lifting, but it’s no surprise that Toews’s numbers dropped when Saad left. It was only up to him to take up what Hossa couldn’t do anymore, as Hossa always paid attention to his defensive duties first. He would sacrifice some forecheck to be where he needed to be defensively. And Richard Panik clearly wasn’t enough, at least for anything more than a spurt here or there.

This was obviously the thinking in bringing Saad back. Someone who could get first into the zone and do things while Toews would obviously only have to support. But it hasn’t worked that way. Either with Saad’s in-and-out nights, or the fact that there wasn’t anyone to make anything of the work they are doing. Saad-Toews-Hossa was such an unholy force they didn’t need a playmaker. They could just bludgeon and force and cycle their way into chances. This is what you see Q trying to compensate for with Top Cat flanking Toews and Duclair, with Duclair now assigned what Saad was supposed to be doing. Debrincat has the vision and hands to use up that space being created. Patience and we could see some real numbers from this line very soon.

But that’s not the whole story, is it? Because there are still things you see from Toews on some nights that just don’t look right, do they? Who’s this getting beat back up the ice in OT for the winner against?

That’s not totally fair. It’s overtime 3-on-3 and people get in weird spots. Sean Monahan is younger and faster. That’s just the way things are.

Again here in Vancouver:

There are factors here. Toews is at the end of a PP shift and clearly tired. It’s not his turnover but ADB’s. But there’s a lack of anticipation, some hesitation, that we’re just not used to with Toews no matter the state of his legs on a given shift. And these haven’t been isolated incidents.

To try and explain Toews’s season with one or even two reasons if folly. In some ways it’s been what it’s always been. And he’s also been a victim of watching the league get faster while he might have lost even a half step. You don’t get a half-step in this league anymore. He’s been letdown at times by teammates. He might not be getting any luck again. He and no one else can seem to save themselves on the power play. And there’s probably more.

While I hate to steal a line from “Dark Knight Rises” because it’s terrible, it seems in some ways victory has defeated Toews. Because of him and the way the Hawks played and won and basically ran over the league there for a while. the game had to get faster. Everyone came to the Hawks level or more right at the time when the Hawks couldn’t quite maintain it anymore. It makes the gap look bigger.

Maybe Toews’s focus isn’t what it used to be, and I wouldn’t blame him if it wasn’t. After three rings, two gold medals, a Selke, a Conn Smythe (which should have gone to Keith or Sharp but we’ll save that for another time), there is nothing left for Toews to prove. He could retire tomorrow and be a first ballot Hall of Famer. So if a backcheck in Vancouver in February isn’t quite as important as it was, that seems almost natural.

Toews has also borne the brunt of criticisms for things that have nothing to do with him. His paycheck to start, and you know our policy on that. It wasn’t Toews who shipped off valuable youngsters that would be providing depth now to compensate for dumb contracts either the GM handed out or was forced to hand out. Imagine what Teuvo might have been doing on the other side of Saad and him? If Danault could have picked up some of his checking assignments?

Toews can still save this season, and I would never bet against the man. Because there’s enough here to say that it isn’t as bad as some would have you believe, and it wouldn’t take much for the underlying numbers to turn into tangible results.

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High On The Hog: Lights Out On The Pokka Party?

By Jon Fromi 2486 0

The Rockford IceHogs, AHL affiliate of the Chicago Blackhawks, may see some players departing via trade in the coming weeks. Whether you consider the Hawks buyers or sellers at this stage of the season, it would seem likely that some deals will be make before the February 26 trade deadline.

I’m thinking that one of those moves will involve defenseman Ville Pokka.

With a host of defensemen currently in Rockford, the young Finnish skater has seen himself in what must be an unfamiliar role in his IceHogs tenure. That would be that of a spectator.

In each of the last two seasons, Pokka has played in all 76 regular season contests. He played in the first 41 heading into a January 23 game with Bakersfield. Pokka was scratched that night before returning to action that weekend, which included a game-tying goal in an eventual win over Ontario.

The 23-year-old Pokka was not in uniform for Rockford this weekend. It is possible that he is injured. It also could be writing on the wall that Pokka’s days in the organization are numbered.

I can’t say that Pokka has been Rockford’s best defenseman this season. That said, he certainly hasn’t been bad. He is on his way to what should be his fourth 30-point season for the IceHogs. In Pokka’s four-year pro career in Rockford, he’s been a steady offensive player.

Though Pokka spent some time on Chicago’s roster this season, he did not see any game action for the Blackhawks. As is the case with other prospects, it may have been decided that the organization doesn’t see him as a fit moving forward.

Keep in mind that this is my speculation only, here. Maybe the kid’s hurt. Perhaps the team just wants to give Pokka a mid-season rest. However, it isn’t far-fetched to believe that there are several Hogs (Cody Franson, Gustav Forsling and Adam Clendening, for instance) who would rate call-ups before Pokka at this point.

Pokka has been one of coach Jeremy Colliton’s alternate captains for the bulk of the season. His game has been solid at the AHL level this season. It just may not be enough to get his foot in the door with Chicago. Pokka will definitely be a name to watch when the trade winds begin to blow.

 

Roster Happenings

On Thursday, the IceHogs recalled F Nathan Noel from the Indy Fuel of the ECHL. Noel, who has yet to suit up for Rockford, last played for the Fuel December 27.

This may be a case of the Blackhawks, to whom Noel is signed to an entry deal, wanting to have him rehab an injury closer to town. I would assume that if he was healthy Noel would have slotted into the fourth line this weekend. Instead, D Robin Norell continues to get minutes there. We may be waiting a while for Noel to make his Rockford debut.

D Luc Snuggerud made his return to the lineup this weekend after missing nearly two months of action. Goalie J.F. Berube, who has been practicing with the team of late, is still out. Berube has not played since suffering a lower-body injury December 9.

 

Weekend Woes

The IceHogs had themselves a rough weekend. A pair of losses dropped the piglets into a tie for fourth with Grand Rapids in the Central Division standings.

Friday, February 2-Manitoba 4, Rockford 3 (OT)

After a blowout loss to Manitoba in November, the effort was better but not quite enough to get both points from the visiting Moose.

Manitoba took a 1-0 lead on a Patrice Cormier power play goal. The IceHogs drew even late in the first when Anthony Louis slapped in a loose puck from the left circle past Moose goalie Eric Comrie at 17:44.

Rockford took a 2-1 lead 4:04 into the second period when Tyler Sikura put back a rebound of a Andreas Martinsen shot. Manitoba made it a 2-2 contest when Jan Kostalek got one past Hogs goalie Colin Delia at the 15:18 mark.

Midway through the third, some rapid-fire passing by the Manitoba power play resulted in a wide-open net for Brendan Lemieux to find the top shelf from the slot. Rockford now needed another rally. It got one by the skin of its teeth.

As it appeared that the Hogs would yank Delia for an extra skater, Luke Johnson brought the puck into Manitoba territory and got off a shot from the right circle. The puck squirted past Comrie and slid in tortoise-like fashion across the goal line to knot the game 3-3 with 1:58 remaining in regulation.

Tanner Kero, who had been denied in two breakaway opportunities earlier in the evening, had the game on his stick in Gus Macker Time. Alas, his attempt was snuffed out by Comrie. As so often happens in these affairs, this led to a rush the other way. Nic Petan fired past Delia and the game was over.

Delia faced 50 shots on the night, stopping 46 of them to pick up third star honors.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson (A)-John Hayden

Anthony Louis-Tanner Kero-William Pelletier

Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen (A)

Matheson Iacopelli-Graham Knott-Robin Norell

Adam Clendening-Gustav Forsling

Viktor Svedberg (A)-Carl Dahlstrom

Luc Snuggerud-Darren Raddysh

Colin Delia

Power Play (0-2)

Highmore-Johnson-Hayden-Louis-Forsling

Kero-Sikura-Martinesen-Clendening-Raddysh

Penalty Kill (Manitoba was 2-3)

Sikura-Pelletier-Dahlstrom-Svedberg

Knott-Kero-Clendening-Forsling

Martinsen-Johnson-Snuggerud-Raddysh

 

Saturday, February 3-Chicago 7, Rockford 4

Things got ugly in the middle frame as four of eight Wolves shots found the back of the Hogs net, turning a 2-1 Rockford advantage into a blowout.

Chicago scored first, with Kevin Lough finishing an odd-man rush with a puck off the crossbar and into the net 8:02 into the game. Before the sands ran out on the first period, however, the IceHogs had gained the lead.

Paul Thompson was bringing the puck along the right boards in the Rockford zone when Alexandre Fortin made the steal. Fortin hit Tyler Sikura coming across the blueline and Sikura did the rest. Skating into Chicago territory, his shot attempt got under the pads of Wolves goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo. At 16:21, the game was tied at a goal apiece.

Two minutes later, William Pelletier caught up to a loose puck and made a nifty move to the Chicago net. Kaskisuo made the pad save, but Anthony Louis was on hand to shoot over the prone Wolves goalie, giving Rockford a 2-1 lead that they took into the locker room.

A Luke Johnson high-sticking double-minor gave the Wolves the chance to expose the IceHogs penalty kill. Brett Sterling connected with twine at 2:03 of the second period to tie the game 2-2.

From there, things got a little out of hand. Moments later, T.J. Tynan and Bryce Gervais worked a 2-on-1 to perfection, with Gervais besting Delia to put Chicago up 3-2 at the 2:59 mark. Shortly thereafter, a defensive turnover wound up in the back of Delia’s net, courtesy of Tyler Wong.

Late in the second, Jake Bischoff capped another successful Wolves power play, lighting the lamp from the point for a 5-2 Chicago lead. Delia, who allowed five goals on just 12 shots, gave way to Matt Tomkins when the teams came out for the final frame.

Early in the third, Adam Clendening lost the handle on the puck just inside the Wolves blueline. Mackenzie MacEachern took the gift, beating Tomkins on the breakaway to make it 6-2 Chicago. Minutes later, a re-direct by Teemu Pulkkinen gave the Wolves a 7-2 lead.

Rockford did get goals from Cody Franson and Andreas Martinsen in the extended garbage time that followed. The Wolves, however, won their 12th straight game at Allstate Arena with little difficulty.

Lines (Starters in italics)

Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura-Andreas Martinsen

Matthew Highmore-Luke Johnson (A)-John Hayden

Anthony Louis-Tanner Kero (A)-William Pelletier

Matheson Iacopelli-Graham Knott-Robin Norell

Cody Franson-Carl Dahlstrom

Adam Clendening-Gustav Forsling

Luc Snuggerud-Darren Raddysh

Colin Delia

Matt Tomkins

Power Play (1-2)

Highmore-Johnson-Hayden-Louis-Forsling

Kero-Sikura-Martinesen-Clendening-Raddysh

Penalty Kill (Chicago was 2-3)

Sikura-Pelletier-Dahlstrom-Franson

Knott-Kero-Clendening-Forsling

Martinsen-Johnson-Snuggerud-Raddysh

 

Coming Up…

The Hogs welcome San Antonio to the BMO Harris Bank Center on Wednesday night before spending the weekend with two familiar division opponents.

Rockford has yet to defeat the Rampage. In fact, they have been outscored 12-2 in three contests with San Antonio this season.

Friday, the IceHogs host Milwaukee, against whom they are 2-3-0-1 in 2017-18. The Admirals, who are 3-0 at the BMO this season, recently picked up former Rockford forward Mark McNeill, by the way.

Saturday night, its off to Des Moines and another tilt with the Iowa Wild. Iowa is third in the Central behind Manitoba and the surging Wolves. The Wild are also playing well, having won seven of their last ten games.

Follow me @JonFromi on twitter to get the occasional thought on the IceHogs throughout the season.

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 3rd

By Sam Fels 1301 0

First Screen Viewing

Avalanche vs. Jets – 6pm

Maybe not the best game on the slate, but if you still think the Hawks have anything to play for it’s time for scoreboard watching. The Jets are out of range of course, but the Avs are a team that’s going to have to be overhauled like the slow antelope. Given the speed of these two sides this one should be an up and down affair. And hey, you can try rooting for the Jets. It might feel funky at first, maybe even wrong, like handcuffs. But you could get used to it.

Second Screen Viewing

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins – 6pm

If the Leafs are going to catch the Bruins and gain home ice in the first round for their already determined 1st round matchup, they’d better start beating them themselves. They’re three points back but have played four more games and given the way the Bruins are going they’re going to win most of those games. The very moon-faced Charlie McAvoy is back in the lineup for the Bs (or mouth-breathing loser, according to Fifth Feather). All the Leafs needed was a game against the Hawks to snap back into life as they’ve won their last four. All of it is a precursor for these two in April, but you may enjoy the sneak preview.

Other Games

Blues vs Sabres – 6pm

Red Wings vs. Panthers – 6pm

Penguins vs. Devils – 6pm

Blue Jackets vs. Islanders – 6pm

Rangers vs. Predators – 7pm

Wild vs. Stars – 7pm

Lightning vs. Canucks – 9pm

Coyotes vs. Kings – 9:30