Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #26 – Hawks vs. Jets Douchebag Du Jour: The Jets Do It To Themselves, Just Them…

By Sam Fels November 29, 2018 1495 0

There was a point last season where it seemed like the Jets had learned. With all their talent, and all their speed, they didn’t need to “assert” themselves every night with idiocy and dick-measuring. It helped lead to their best season, and within some rotten luck of the Stanley Cup Final. The Jets finished 16th in penalty minutes per game last year. That had broken a streak of three seasons under head coach Paul Maurice where the Jets had finished no lower than 6th in penalty minutes per game. They were playing the wrong games at the wrong times. They seemed to have figured that out.

Not so this year. The Jets lead the league in penalty minutes per game, and nine players have racked up 20 minutes or more so far. They’ve racked up five game -misconducts this year, tied for the lead with Vancouver. They’re second in majors.

Jacob Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien, and Tyler Myers are the ones who seem to be most unable to get out of their own way, as their penalty-difference are worst on the team. They’re -7, -6. -6 respectively.

It would be infuriating to be a fan of the Jets and see them not want to remain at even-strength as much as they could. While they’re not the even-strength power they were last year, they’re among the bottom teams in drawing penalties and power play time. When you have Patrik Laine, you’d think you’d want to be setting him up in “the post” as often as damn possible on the man-advantage.

You could see this being a problem for the Jets down the road, where they’ll have to negotiate the Predators and possibly Sharks back-to-back, though the Predators aren’t clicking on the power play at the moment. You know what the Sharks man-advantage can do.

The Jets defense is not going to be ever be dominant. Trouba has regressed a touch, Byfuglien has only a tangental relationship with his own end. Tyler Myers just straight sucks. But it doesn’t have to be stupid. If it is, it’ll cost them just about everything.

Game #26 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #26 – Hawks vs. Jets: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels November 29, 2018 1246 0

Game #26 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #26 – Hawks vs. Jets: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels November 29, 2018 1366 0

Game #26 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – November 28th

By Sam Fels November 28, 2018 1130 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs – 6:30 pm

After a pretty exciting tilt that saw them lose to the suddenly Vengeance Of God Sabres in overtime, the Sharks continue their tour of the Atlantic division in the North’s capital tonight. It’s still not flowing for the Sharks, though that’s mostly due to goaltending. It’s going to happen. The Leafs are the Leafs, rolling right along and now Auston Matthews looks primed and ready to reappear tonight. We’ll get our Nylander verdict soon as well. They’ll hope to do this again in the spring.

Second Screen Viewing

Stars vs. Flames – 8pm

The Stars found a way to not score against the Oilers last night, and now they’ll have to face what’s looking like a real threat in the Calgary Flames. After finally pivoting to Big Save Dave, the Flames are benefitting from having Mark Giordano and a pretty nifty top nine. There’s something cooking here.

Other Games

Blues vs. Red Wings – 6pm

Ducks vs. Panthers – 6pm

Penguins vs. Avalanche – 8:30

Everything Else

Ocean Of Confusion

By Sam Fels November 28, 2018 2259 0

Note: Yes, I realize I’m mixing my Screaming Trees references but just go with me on this, friend.

Babies, I like to pretend I know everything. Or at least enough where I can convince you I know what’s up with the Hawks. But I have to say the last few days have left me as bewildered as when they started. My thoughts, and others, were summed up in the podcast (which hey, you can get right here!), but I want to expound on them a touch more.

As I said on that ‘cast (I can abbreviate it cuz I’m cool, yo), I like the trade even though I either don’t approve of the process that got them there, and that’s if I can even discern what that process was. So, much like Patron Saint Inigo Montoya, let’s go back to the beginning.

Let’s start with Stan Bowman’s quote to The Athletic’s Scott Powers during an interview in Florida from last week about the signings of Brandon Manning and Chris Kunitz:

“Part of your job as a manager is to try to work with your coach to try to give them players that can implement the way they want to play,” Bowman said. “So I think we did a good job of that over the years with Joel. When it was obvious players didn’t fit the way even though they were quote-unquote good players, if they weren’t going to work for us, we didn’t just sit on them. We would move them and try to find somebody.

“It’s sort of the same thing. We didn’t have a lot of money to spend, but they were players that had attributes that Joel thought was important for our team and was lacking. So we have a new coach now, trying to fit in their strengths, but also changing to play in a little bit different way. So it’s hard to make a full assessment on that. I’ll have to see how it all plays out in the next several months. Hopefully they can find a way to contribute with Jeremy as well.”

Let’s start before this. Now, this has only been a working theory of ours for a couple seasons now, but I feel it’s a strong one. And one we can probably back up if we need to, and we went over on the ‘cast (so cool). After the sweep by the Predators in ’17, it was pretty clear that Stan Bowman went to his superiors and told them if they wanted to extend the window of this team, or at least keep it relevant, he needed to have complete control of personnel decisions. It had to be his show. It wasn’t totally his before, and the push-and-pull between him and Q and Q’s soldiers in the front office is well documented.

We know, or have a strong suspicion at least, that Bowman got all of the reins because he booted two of Q’s favorites immediately in Niklas Hjalmarsson and Artemi Panarin. Make no mistake, it was Q’s not-total belief in Bradon Saad, and his allies in the front office, that got Saad traded the first time. The fact that Stan didn’t tell Q about these trades beforehand, and Q made a show of telling the media that, gives you some idea of what the new dynamic was. You could argue it was at this point that Q just checked out of the job mentally, which is definitely the story some of the Hawks players were pushing after the firing.

So let’s add to that it was pretty clear that Stan wanted to fire Q before this season even started. And that Jeremy Colliton was his guy. I think we know this because if you’re pulling that trigger after 15 games, and I’ve said this before, all you’re allowing the incumbent is the chance for EVERYTHING to go perfectly. It didn’t.

So let’s circle back to this quote. And it’s essentially, maybe only partially, Stan throwing the coach he didn’t want to work with anymore under whatever bus was closest. “Well, I signed these guys because they were the types I hated but Joel liked and look what that got us! See why I had to do what I did!”

But if you believe all this, and maybe you don’t, what essentially happened is Stan took some cap space to assuage a coach he didn’t want with players who didn’t really have any hope, but now the coach he did want is stuck with them. And the coach he did want doesn’t have the time to really implement the changes both of them would like to make, nor with a roster either is suited for.

And if you carry this out farther, rightly or wrongly, you get to some uncomfortable questions about Schmatlz’s untouchable status over the summer. Because Elliotte Friedman reported the Canes asked about him in talks over Justin Faulk. Did Stan say no because he really thought Schmaltz was a cornerstone? An opinion he lost just 25 games in? Or did he not make a move for Faulk unless it was complete theft because he thought, gasp, a player like that might improve the Hawks just enough that he couldn’t fire Quenneville? There’s no way to make that connection firmly, but can you totally dismiss it?

Looking forward, I don’t know what Jeremy Colliton is or will be. I will say I like the outside-the-box hire, because a major problem in hockey is the constant retreading at both coach and GM positions everywhere. Everything you hear from people in the know say that Colliton has a chance to be a really good coach.

But he doesn’t have much to work with, certainly on the blue line. He has entrenched veterans who can’t, or won’t, change their game to adjust for what they are. Or he has overmatched players. And one promising rookie who has to cover for above.

We know Colliton is Stan’s guy, because he got a multi-year deal. And I’m at least curious to see what Colliton could do with a real roster. Just curious. And maybe Stan thinks he’s going to be around for all of it.

But here’s the thing. Rocky and McD can bluster all they want about “remodels” and “believing in our guys” all they want. But let’s say December goes completely balls-up, and it so easily could. And the Hawks are done by The Winter Classic, 5-7 games under .500 and on a national stage where all their faults will be laid out for everyone to see.

And then in the spring, those season ticket renewals start not showing up. Or being declined, I guess. And they have to dig in deeper and deeper to that waiting list they used to love to tell you about. And more and more on that waiting list say either, “No thanks,” or “Who are you again?”

There isn’t anything else that would get Rocky and McD’s attention. They would notice that in a heartbeat. And that’s when trigger fingers get itchy (when McD is done bullying his lower level employees of course, because GENIUS). And then the Hawks bring in some crusty hockey man because it’s a name some fans might recognize and that’s the length of the research the Twin Towers Of Born On Third Organizational Method do. And he wants another crusty hockey man behind the bench.

And then it’s totally fucked, and Collition never gets a chance with the blue line that’s kind of been hand-picked for what we think his style will be.

I know I’ve mapped this out like the detective in V For Vendetta, so let’s eschew everything in the future for now.

What I can’t get past is a GM seemingly sandbagging his coach with players who suck to illustrate what the problems with that coach were. And another thing I can’t get past is that if Stan can’t help talking up Adam Boqvist, Ian Mitchell, and Nicolas Beaudin, then maybe it would have helped everyone to say what this year was instead of blathering about winning and playoffs. Because it’s more and more obvious next year is what they were targeting anyway (and quick, show me the last playoff team with at least two rookie d-men logging heavy minutes).

Would the fanbase have been more accepting of being honestly told what was going on? Maybe or maybe not. But it would be better than this.

Everything Else

Game #25 – Knights 8, Hawks 3 – Seen It All, Done It All, Felt Pain More

By Adam Hess November 27, 2018 2130 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corisca

This season is barely more than 25% done and it’s already become a damn chore to watch these games. It’s hard to evaluate what’s going on in games like this outside of “holy fuck this is awful” which makes my job for this wrap all the more difficult. I will do my best to not be dramatic, but spoiler alert, it’s a lot of suck. THE BULLETS (hopefully one lodges itself in my skull):

– Let’s start with a positive: I was rather impressed with Dylan Strome in this game. His skill showed out a few times and his hockey instincts that you hear praised a lot were on full display almost all night, especially on his goal. There was one shift in the first period where he basically just posted up in the slot for about 30 seconds while Kane and Top Cat made some stuff happen on the outside, and he got a few decent looks out of it. His goal was just pure instincts in ending up in the right spot for a netfront scrum, and he made a hell of a play on the Hawks third goal in garbage time, forechecking hard and stripping the Vegas defenseman before making a beautiful pass to set up Erik Gustafsson for a goal. On top of that, with lack of skating speed being his main weakness, there was never a moment where I thought “damn, if only he was faster” tonight. That might be because of the rest of the roster, but he hung with the Hawks two fastest guys in Kane and Top Cat. For this being his first game in the Four Feather Sweater, he made a good impression.

– Now the bad. There are two main players that were absolute garbage tonight, and they are probably the two players the Hawks absolutely cannot have be garbage. Those were Jonathan Toews, and Duncan Keith. Let’s give them each their own bullet so I can really flesh out the bitching.

– Let me take you to the second Knights’ goal of the night, with just under 8 minutes to go in the period. Frustratingly, this play starts in the Hawks zone, with the puck on the Hawks fucking sticks. Toews gets a pass and kinda backs into the near (to the TV) corner, surveying the ice and kind of buying time as the Hawks finish a total change. But then he inexplicably blindly flings the puck to the point, with the only problem being that there’s no one there. It ends up going all the way down to Crawford behind the net. Toews makes absolutely zero effort to get back into the Hawks d-zone, and after Crawford makes a bad turnover (that I don’t really blame him for) Alex Tuch picks a corner with Toews still on the wrong side of the red line. Later on he was almost solely responsible for the Knights’ third goal, as he was way out of position and didn’t shut down the slot as Gustav Forsling was forced to pinch the corner (more on that in a moment). His positioning was awful and Cody Eakin, who should’ve been Toews’ man, was all alone in front of Crawford for a goal. It didn’t get better for the Captain, despite him making the score sheet with an assist.

– Now let’s talk about Duncan Keith. This is kind of well-worn at this point, and you all know that there is no lack of love for Keith and what he has meant to this franchise from anyone at this site, myself included. But he was just utter ass tonight. Let’s revisit the Knights’ third goal that we mentioned above where Toews didn’t cover his man correctly. Well, the only reason that bad positioning by Toews was so egregious was because Keith went sight-seeing behind the net even though he had tons of time to adjust after his man passed the puck into the corner while skating behind the net. If you’re behind the net skating away from the puck as a defenseman, you’re about as useful as the drunk asshole in the front row banging on the glass in the corner. Keith’s little detour resulted in Forsling being in an awkward position and having to pinch the corner, which led to Toews needing to cover the slot but not doing it, which led to a goal. If Keith goes to the corner with the puck, the Hawks have this defended well. Instead, it ends up in the back of their net. It also didn’t get better for Keith throughout the night, and the Knights eighth and final goal ended up going in off of him.

– My last two major gripes about this game are simple. Number 1 – the Blackhawks have no fucking clue what they’re doing in their defensive zone, both when they have the puck and when their don’t. Their breakout strategy is non-existant. I extolled the virtues of getting away from Q’s slow, methodical breakouts, but even that was better than watching these fuckstick defensemen play hot potato with the puck and not make any real decision to get it up the ice. Gripe Number 2 – the effort in the third period was fucking piss poor. I know it was already 6-2 and the game was pretty much over, but having an 18% CF at 5v5 in a game you are losing at home is fucking inexcusable. How can this team expect us to believe they can compete if they clearly don’t believe it, or don’t care to at least act like they do?

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – November 27th

By Sam Fels November 27, 2018 1096 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Sabres – 6pm

It’s the expected favorite versus the upstart. The Sharks swing out east and the first team they’ll see is the shock leaders of the Atlantic, the Buffalo Sabres. It’s going well for the Western New Yorkers, who finally have two scoring lines and at least one competent defenseman, as well as two goalies pretty much killing it. Their metrics aren’t that great, and I don’t know how long you want to ride Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark, and in fact I’m not sure you should ever trust anyone named “Linus,” but here we are. With the Bruins rolling out players they just made up and the Canadiens already beginning their fade, there is room in the division for them. Things haven’t fired fully yet for the Sharks, but they’re still on top of the Pacific. A little more listless play and this seems like a perfect landing spot for Quenneville, although I’d pay to watch him try to explain to Karlsson and Burns why they can’t carry the puck out of the zone. Or a trade for a goalie.

Second Screen Viewing

Avalanche vs. Predators – 7pm

It only feels like these two have played eight times already. One features the best line in hockey right now, and the other features the best defense and goalie. This is where I’m contractually obligated to say, “SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE!” Given the watered down levels of talent around the league, you can get pretty far with one line doing what Rantanen-MacKinnon-SapsuckerFrog are doing, and they just might take the Avs farther than we would have guessed. Those of us wanting to see the Predators crash and burn are hoping for one of Rinne’s hips to give out, and even that would only give way to Juuse Saros, whom they wanted to give the job to anyway. It won’t be slow.

Other Games

Senators vs. Flyers – 6pm

Hurricanes vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Ducks vs. Lightning – 6:30

Coyotes vs. Wild – 7pm

Penguins vs. Jets – 7pm

Stars vs. Oilers – 8pm

Kings vs. Canucks – 9pm

Everything Else

Game #25 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks Preview: Yet Another New Toy Day

By Sam Fels November 27, 2018 1750 0

vs.

RECORDS: Knights 12-12-1 Hawks 9-10-5

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN outside the 606, NBCSN Chicago inside

DIAMONDS AND DUST: Sinbin Vegas

I suppose one of the good things about following a team in transition is that every couple of weeks you get something new to watch and study. A few weeks ago it was Jeremy Collition and the changes he would bring. Let’s throw Gustav Forsling in there, just because he was an improvement on a defense that was just that bad, and because we have so little. And tonight, the Hawks will unveil Dylan Strome and Brendan Perlini. They even gave them normal numbers. So you know it’s real.

While the United Center faithful didn’t have any strong attachment to Nick Schmaltz, at least I don’t think they did, it won’t stop them from having the knives out and the boos ready if Strome and Perlini don’t immediately make an impact (somewhere around four goals each, I’m guessing). Stan Bowman isn’t out there for everyone to jeer, so they’ll go through his proxies if they have to.

From practice yesterday it doesn’t sound like Strome is going to slot directly into the second line, which he should, because no one has told me why we have to stick with Artem Anisimov and the increasingly shrinking amount of things he does. Strome will start on the fourth line between Marcus Kruger and…Alex Fortin? Dominik Kahun? Maybe Perlini? Perlini is a good bet to start on the third-line with Kampf and either Kahun or Fortin. And if things go well, don’t be shocked if Strome gets a promotion right away.

Elsewhere, Henri Jokiharju is under the weather and they’re not sure if he’ll play, which is a real fucking problem tonight. But we’ll get to that. Corey Crawford will start.

This is not the best night for any new Hawks to debut (or de-butt in the words of Matt Riddle) or for them to be without The HarJu, because the Golden Knights are the type of team the Hawks can’t deal with and the team that simply used them as a hand-puppet last year to do unspeakable things they could blame on an alter-ego. This is the model the Hawks probably want to chase in terms of style. It’s the one they can’t actually match in terms of ability to play it.

The Knights have struggled all year, or more to the point they’ve been extremely unlucky. Their metrics actually suggest they’ve been better this year than they were last. What they haven’t been able to do is get a save or catch a fish with dynamite. They roll in with the sixth-lowest shooting-percentage at even-strength and the third-lowest save-percentage as well, and that’s with two shutouts in their last two games. Marc-Andre Fleury has been sinking them until this week. and other than Jonathan Marchessault they can’t really get anyone to consistently score. William Karlsson‘s shooting-percentage has cut in half from last year, which no one gleefully saw coming, of course. Reilly Smith has the NBA Jam announcer following him around at all times screaming, “CAN’T BUY A BUCKET!” Max Pacioretty was nowhere until a six-goal week last week. As any Vegas visitor will tell you, the market correction on good luck can be swift and violent and leave you weeping with no pants.

Still, this is a team coming in off shutting out the Flames and Sharks, two teams ahead of them in the Pacific, on back-to-back nights at home. This is the team that plays fastest in the league, and no matter how you try and dream it up you can’t find a way that the Hawks defense can live with that. If there’s something to cling to, it’s that the Knights have been woeful on the road, at 5-9-0. But again, that’s mostly because Fleury or Malcom Subban have been trying to stop pucks by talking nicely to them for most of the season. Their metrics are right in line.

The task is tall and clear. This is one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Knights give up the second-least amount of attempts, the least amount of shots, and the second-least amount of scoring chances at evens in the league per 60. Their expected goals-against per 60 is fourth-best. They give nothing, and we know they can take everything from the Hawks on any rush. It also would behoove the Hawks to like, kill off a power play. Maybe even two, but I don’t want to be accused of being greedy. Either way, the Hawks are going to have to find a way to create chances with a lineup short on offensive dash against a team giving up basically nothing all year. Good seats still available!

Still, the Hawks schedule isn’t kind for this month. The Knights are on it twice. So are the Preds. So are the Jets. So are the Avs. The Sharks appear once. Blink and the Hawks could be done by Christmas. So if it’s ever going to click into gear, it had better be right now. If it doesn’t…Stan, meet Hextall.

Game #25 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #25 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks Spotlight: Don’t Have A Whiff Of This Posy

By Sam Fels November 27, 2018 1563 0

You’d be tempted to accuse the Knights and Marc-Andre Fleury of falling into the famous “Free Agent Year” trap, except that last year Fleury wasn’t in his free agent year. It seems unique to hockey that you have to sign a player to an extension a full season before he gets to free agency, as the dreaded “distraction” of a contract negotiation is feared to be something akin to Godzilla to the fleeing Japanese of a regular season and team. That’s how we got here with Brent Seabrook, after all. You’d think you’d want to grow the sample size before committing money to anyone aging and/or coming off a performance out of line with the rest of their career. But the NHL has always been where logic goes to die.

What was clear after last season is that Flower had a career season. His .927 SV% over the year was the best he’d accomplished by six points, which was two seasons previous in Pittsburgh, a season that saw him give way to Matt Murray late anyway. While Fleury had saved himself after his playoff meltdowns earlier in the decade, .927 was never going to be the norm.

NHL GMs seem to bathe in the good feelings of a team more than any others though, and because everything around the Knights was essentially Prozac from last spring on, he couldn’t help but hand Fleury three more years at $7M. No waiting around to see if Fleury could match that performance. No being sure. No thought that maybe at age 34 that was as good as it was going to get for Fleury.

And then you get what we have now.

Fleury has been terrible for most of this season, though has rebounded the last two games with shutouts to vault his SV% to .913 for the season. It was far below that before, at .901. What was more indicting for Fleury is that the Knights have been defensively more sound in front of him than they were last year. By some margin, as well. They’re giving up six attempts less per game at even strength, three shots less, and their xGA/60 dropped from 2.26 last season to 2.09. Which is why Fleury’s expected-save-percentage at evens went from .920 last year to .923 this year. But his actual SV% at evens went from .931 to .910.

Perhaps Fleury’s back-to-back shutouts signal a turnaround, and all will be well on The Strip once again. And maybe most think that this is the Knights, and the cap space he’s eating up doesn’t matter because they have all of the space in the world thanks to their expansion status. Not so, fucko…

After extensions to Fleury, Jonathan Marchessault, Nate Schmidt, Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch, the acquisitions of Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny, the Knights only have about $7 million in space next year with just 14 players signed. And that’s before a major raise for William Karlsson, despite his restricted status. He won’t be getting a bridge deal, needless to say. He’s at $5.2M per year now. What’s coming? $7M? $8M? That $7M they’re handing to Fleury next year could actually be costly.

Maybe Fleury has found the Pekka Rinne fountain of youth, which the Predators are also banking on. Goalies certainly do have a different aging curve than skaters. However, in the past 20 years there have only been eight seasons where a goalie put up a .920+ SV% after the age of 35, and only Roberto Luongo and Tim Thomas did it twice. And as we know, Tim Thomas’s career didn’t really start until he was 30. Fleury has been in the league since he was a teenager. Is it the miles instead of malaise? 800 starts seems like a lot, and he’ll cross that threshold either this year or the beginning of next.

It was a beautiful dream last year. Perhaps it’s best to not snort that when trying to figure out the future.

Game #25 Preview Suite