Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Trying To Assess Connor Murphy

By Sam Fels January 16, 2019 2323 0

I’ll admit we’ve done something of a bridge-pose, if not an outright wheel, trying to justify our Connor Murphy affection. We didn’t think trading Niklas Hjalmarsson before he became…well, Brent Seabrook, was a bad idea. It’s actually the kind of thing the Hawks probably should have done more of. Except the only other time they did it, giving up on Brandon Saad the first time, only netted them Artem Anisimov. But just because you didn’t execute a good idea properly doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good idea. And Hjalmarsson got them Murphy, and let’s just say that he has yet to convince all Hawks fans it was worth it. It also doesn’t help that Hammer continues to play well in Arizona, as you’ll soon see.

While I remain a metrics-heavy analyst, one of my main problems is that no one, as far as I can tell, has weighted the rates or possession-numbers to account for where a shift starts and whom against. We have it adjusted for score of the game, time, and venue, but not for the individual shifts. So one person’s 52% share might be awfully different than another’s. For example, Duncan Keith‘s metrics, a 50.1 CF% aren’t horribly out of line with what he used to put up, but 60% of his shifts starting in the offensive zone is. So you have to account for that.

So with Murphy, we have some unique circumstances. First off, only Patrik Nemeth of the Avalanche starts less shifts in the offensive zone than Murphy does, at 27%. That accounts for shifts that start on faceoffs and on-the-fly. If you go by simply faceoffs, Murphy has the fifth-lowest percentage in the offensive zone. So either way it’s obvious to see he’s being buried in the dungeon by place on the ice when he gets on the ice. .

The names around him are the aforementioned Nemeth, Hjalmarsson, his partner Dahlstrom, Andy Greene, Roman Polak, Ben Lovejoy (and those two names are going to make you shudder so hard your chiropractor will be rubbing his/her hands), Damon Severson, Alex Edler, Andrew MacDonald. Among those bottom-10, as it were, Murphy’s 45.1 CF% is about average. The outliers are, of course, Hjalmarsson and Andrew MacDonald (what?). So he’s not standout but he’s not dragging behind.

Of course, on this list, that doesn’t cover it. Most all of these guys are third-pairing players not playing the competition that Murphy is. Greene and Severson are an exception, and so is Hjalmarsson. However, Hammer is paired with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, whereas Murphy gets Dahlstrom and his 80s hair. That was cool for like 10 games. It has not been lately, and very much so.

On the scoring-chance side, it’s a little less encouraging. On that list of those who are buried, Murphy’s 45.3% mark is on the lower side, though hardly the lowest. Again, Hjalmarsson stands out at above water and significantly so, as does Nemeth’s 52%. Though one wonders in a Dahlstrom-Murphy pairing that’s either been mostly behind a defensively declining Toews or David Kampf, who exactly is going to create chances. But here we are.

It’s hard to get a read on, and Murphy hasn’t been bad, but it’s hard to conclude he hasn’t been behind his counterpart in that trade that forever broke the Quenneville-Bowman relationship. Last year, Murphy’s metrics were actually really good with Brent Seabrook, other-worldy with Michal Kempny (fucking fuckin’ fuck!), and pretty good with Erik Gustafsson as well. In each case, he was getting at least double the offensive-zone starts than he is this year, though, and in two of those examples he was partnered with at least an offensively capable/mobile partner. I’m not convinced Dahlstrom is either. But we also know it did not go so well with Duncan Keith, where the competition kicked up. But was that Murphy or Keith? It seems impossible to tell.

It would behoove the Hawks to get Murphy a real partner for the rest of the year, and one who has hope of getting the Hawks up the ice at any point. Jokiharju is the first name that comes to mind, but would you be doing him any favors to almost never start him in the offensive zone? Big ask. Gustafsson is not equipped to handle that zone-start task or the competition. And that’s basically it. And until Murphy gets someone like that as a partner, it’s going to be hard to tell what the Hawks have here.

Live From The Five Hole

Live From The Five Hole – Can’t Win

By Matt McClure January 16, 2019 1915 0

Well this team is very entertaining. It’s a three man weave between Sam, Pullega, and myself for this one, and we’re on Spotify now so you motherfuckers have no excuses anymore. Free as always, comrades.

Everything Else

Game #48: Hawks 5, Devils 8: Bow Your Head, Cuz It’s Time to Pay the Tithe

By Adam Hess January 14, 2019 1943 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

This is one of the absolute strangest games to try to recap. The Hawks played pretty bad but the numbers don’t seem to bear it out. Let’s dig in.

– So, the Hawks CF on the night was 50.53%, which bears out a pretty evenly played game. But if you click that Natural Stat Trick link above and find the game flow chart, you’ll see that it took until the Hawks were down 4-1 for them to even start making substantial progress on bringing this back to even. Folks, we call that score effects. This was a piss poor performance from the start and they got shitbrained by a team that realistically shouldn’t be that much better than them. That’s bad.

– Cam Ward is a huge reason why the game went south so quickly, but it clearly couldn’t all be hung on him. He was awful in net, but that only compounded the problems – it might not have mattered as much how bad he was playing if it weren’t for the fact that the Hawks were playing like dog shit in front of him. Still, we knew that Ward was a bad signing when it happened, it’s continued to show as a bad signing since, and tonight was one of his worst games of the year. Luckily there are only 34 games left, and he probably will play less than half of them. So we have that going for us!

– Slater Koekkoek is awful. I don’t even need to see more of him to reach that conclusion. The numbers showed it before he got here, and it just took one night of watching him before we saw it. I don’t even give a shit that he had a 60% CF at 5v5. I don’t want him around.

– Patrick Kane is so wasted on this fucking team. He’s arguably the most wasted player in the NHL, and that says something considering Connor McDavid is still stranded in freakin’ Edmonton. But it’s clear that Kane is still one of the top-5 players in the game, and as Sam wrote last week he might be having his best season ever, and yet he’s wasted on this team that is approaching the inarguable status as the worst team in the league. Eat at Arby’s.

Everything Else

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Devils Preview/Cafe Inspection: “Parts Unknown” Always Means Downtown Newark

By Sam Fels January 14, 2019 1658 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 16-22-9 Devils 17-20-7

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BADA BING ENTHUSIASTS: In Lou We Trust

Sky point, Bobby Heenan.

After taking two of the West’s best to overtime, and then losing in that gimmick when their slow defense wasn’t really prepared for 3-on-3, the Hawks venture for a week in New York to face some of the East’s sludge. There’s always sludge involved when you’re in New Jersey, but this time around it also applies to the team that resides there.

The Devils aren’t vying for a playoff spot this time around, like they somehow miracle’d their way to last year. One, Taylor Hall is hurt now, though he was over a point-per-game when he was fit. This time though, they aren’t getting goalie performance from out of a top hat, as Keith Kinkaid has returned to being Keith Kinkaid, Cory Schneider is now made out of boogers and adhesive, and they’re pinning their hopes on neophyte MacKenzie Blackwood. Somehow, the Devils only have the 12th-worst SV% at even-strength, even though both Kinkaid and Schneider can’t see .900 with a telescope.

It also doesn’t help that this isn’t a very good defensive team, with the fifth-worst xGA/60 in the league, and not much better in attempts against. It might have something to do with not having a d-man worth a damn on the roster. Andy Greene is a million years old and you’ve never heard of him anyway, so he’s the perfect Devils captain. Sami Vatanen has always been a power play weapon only, Will Butcher continues a long tradition of prized college free agents who end up being a fart in the wind, and Mirco Mueller has a really long neck. Damon Severson is probably worth holding onto, but that’s probably it. Look at this blue line and you’ll react like the business manager to Kramer. “I don’t know what this is supposed to be.”

Up front there’s some hope, even without the injured Hall. Nico Hischier is putting up some pretty impressive underlying numbers in a junior Bergeron act. Kyle Palmieri continues to score goals and also continues to make you wonder why you should give a shit. Miles Wood is a porn name. While this is a more dynamic and entertaining Devils team than the ones of yore, it still needs more talent than its got to be relevant…well, relevant maybe for the first time. I’m not sure they were relevant even when they were winning Cups. Certainly no one other than the highway-side strip club patrons bothered to notice.

For the Hawks, not too many changes one would think. Cam Ward will get the start to give Delia nearly a full week to reset after two tough losses his last two starts. Slater Koekkoek could make his debut tonight, and the Hawks might actually dress seven d-men to do so, but we won’t find out until gametime. The clear option is to scratch Seabrook and let Koekkoek run around on the third-pairing with either Carl Dahlstrom or Henri Jokiharju, but we all know Coach Cool Youth Pastor isn’t going to scratch Seabrook unless you dangled him off a cliff. Dahlstrom could face the axe as well.

The Devils murdered the Hawks twice last year, and basically killed Corey Crawford while they were at it. While not the most skilled, this is an extremely fast team and the Hawks couldn’t cope. The same rules as Saturday apply here, which the Hawks followed pretty well for the first 40. None of the complicated breakouts, just get the puck up to the forwards or ahead of them aw quickly as possible. Any missteps will be pounced on by the Devils’ quick forwards, so the simpler the better. Blackwood has looked very good in his brief foray, but put him under pressure and see what happens. The Hawks are slightly better equipped for these track meets than they were, though still not their strength.

There’s four games before the Hawks hit the bye. They probably need them all to not be buried by the time the bye is over and all those games in hand are made up. They can’t say their season is over, or act like it, even if we can. So if they’re intent on still a death rattle, it probably has to be now.

Game #48 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Devils Spotlight: McKenzie Blackwood And No One Knows Nothing

By Sam Fels January 14, 2019 1511 0

It is truly strange how quietly young goalies sneak into the league. Carter Hart is about the only goalie you hear mentioned as a future building block for any team, despite how many teams need goalies. Even here in town, you didn’t hear Collin Delia‘s name until last year, and he wasn’t even mentioned as a possible future starter until this season. Teams just arrive at a starting goalie, almost by accident.

And considering it might be the most important position in the four major sports, it’s startling that it is that way. Your team drafts a quarterback and a city’s entire economic future depends on it. Everything is dissected. If there’s one at the top of the draft, you get him. And if you don’t, everyone thinks you’re an idiot. Remember when the Texans passed on Vince Young for Mario Williams? People lost their goddamn minds! So why aren’t goalies like that?

In the last draft, the first goalie was taken in the second round. The year before that there was one taken in the first round. The year before that, Hart was the first one taken in the second round. Given the outsized importance of the position, shouldn’t the draft look like your fantasy draft and a goalie taken with like the first 15 picks? It’s the position you have to get most right, and yet it doesn’t seem like anyone has a surefire system for doing so.

Look around the best goaltenders in the league and you kind of get the impression every team found them by accident. Pekka Rinne was an 8th-round pick. Ben Bishop is on his fifth team. Robin Lehner is on his fourth. David Rittich came from nowhere. There are a handful of European signings, where the goalie system seems to be completely different and yet no one is trying it here. Only Andrei Vasilevskiy and John Gibson appear to be drafted for exactly this, going in the first and second round, respectively.

MacKenzie Blackwood is an example. He had a .920 the last two years he was in the OHL, but can you really get a read on a goalie there behind and stopping children. His numbers in the AHL are hardly inspiring, but again, you could be playing behind any collection of janitors and gym teachers there instead of prospects. And you could be playing in a different system than the one you’ll get in the NHL. Corey Crawford‘s numbers in the AHL weren’t all that inspiring either, but all the good d-men the Hawks had were on the Hawks. He never managed a .920 there, and yet look what the Hawks go.

The Devils future may hinge on Blackwood, as you can’t really be good without a goalie. And if you can get one that is young that you can keep cheap for a while, that’s even better, much like a QB on a rookie deal. If he’s not good, then the Devils are going to either have to trade for one and lose good players, or sign one and use up cap space. You’d think teams would be better at developing the most important position, and they’re just not. Looking around, Rinne, Vasilevskiy, Gibson are basically the only premier goalies on the team that drafted them (fuck off, Jonathan Quick stans). You can throw Henrik Lundqvist on there if you want, and maybe Carey Price. Connor Hellebuyck? Is he officially on that list yet? Hard to say. Braden Holtby is another.

Even being kind, that’s still over half the teams in the league who are fishing or have. You’d think they could do better. But this is hockey, baby.

Game #48 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Devils Q&A: The King Of Jersey Style

By Sam Fels January 14, 2019 1497 0

@HellBlazerVice is yet another creature we pulled out of the bin marked, “Unmentionables.” We took him home and fed him and now we can’t get rid of him.

It’s been quite a comedown for the Devils from last year. Is it just the goaltending that’s landed them here?

I’d say it’s mostly the goaltending- they’re virtually the same team as they were last year with regards to their possession and expected goal numbers, but they’re losing a lot because no one can make a stop. Their horrid goaltending combined with John Hynes trying to get the Devils to play a faster style like the Leafs has generally put them in a tough spot because most of the time they’re down 3-0 early and they stop playing aggressively because they’re too worried about putting themselves in a deeper hole. They’ve also had a really tough schedule to start the season- they’ve played a third of their games against legitimate cup contenders or elite teams in Toronto, Tampa, Nashville, Winnipeg, San Jose, Washington and Vegas so that’s not helping either. They’re doing surprisingly better without Hall this year mainly because in at least half of the games where Hall’s been hurt, they’ve gotten strong goaltending from their top goaltending prospect MacKenzie Blackwood, which has given them the confidence to play a bit more aggressive. Outside of Zacha, Butcher, and Wood most of the skaters have met or are exceeding expectations so it’s probably safe to say that the goaltending is the issue.

Is Cory Schneider permanently broken?

Shero is just as tight lipped as Lou so it’s hard to tell what Schneider’s status is, but I remember seeing a quote in 31 Thoughts which said that there was some concern about Schneider’s injury being career ending- and I think that might be the case. He just can’t move the way he used to and over the past few years he’s been dealing with a lot of core muscle injuries to go with the hip problems he’s had so that’s going to affect him. He turns 33 in March so the chances of him returning to form are minimal. They can’t give him game time to work out his issues because they’ve got to try and win games in order to have a better chance at keeping Taylor Hall around. His days as a Devil are numbered and he’s probably going to get an amnesty buyout after the inevitable lockout in 2020.

What are the Devils going to do with Taylor Hall? He has one year left on his contract…

The good news is that unlike the Sens or Isles with Karlsson and Tavares, the Devils don’t exactly have the same issues those teams have. Unlike Mean Gene Melnyk, Josh Harris isn’t a cheapskate and the Devils lack of spending has more to do with Shero showing a ton of restraint and not overpaying for mid-tier free agents. Not only do they have the cap space, but they’re probably more than willing to give Hall the money to stay in New Jersey. Unlike the Isles, the Devils have a good GM and aren’t going to replace him with a ghoul like Lou and so far there isn’t a can’t-miss free agent destination like the Leafs- Nashville would fit that bill but playing with Nico and Kyle Palmieri is probably more enticing than playing with Kyle Turris and Colton Sissons on a contender. Re-signing John Hynes should help their chances as he seems to like playing for Hynes. They’re also in a good spot to retool the current roster given that Shero’s trade record is excellent, they might be able to get one of the really good free agents in this year’s class (or alternatively, his good buddy Jordan Eberle) with the $30+ million in cap space they have going into next season and they’ve obviously got a lottery pick with a lottery ball specialist so maybe they end up with one of Hughes, Kakko or Cozens. My guess is that they’ll offer him a blank cheque on July 1st and either he takes the money or waits to see if a contender emerges while having the Devils massive offer in his back pocket as a contingency plan.

At least there appears to be a step forward from Nico Hischier?

The thing about Nico is that you have to watch him closely to appreciate what he brings like someone like Patrice Bergeron or Patrik Elias. He’s not going to be lighting the scoresheet up with four-point games or hat tricks but the Devils have been winning the possession battle when he’s been on the ice. Considering he doesn’t get power play time and Rick Kowalsky has no idea how to run a power play his numbers there aren’t great, but he’s scoring at a better rate than he did this year and that’s probably going to go up once Hall returns from injury and Kowalsky gets his head out of his ass.

The Devils were a rebuilding team last year that spasmed a playoff spot. Is it possible for them to be much worse in the standings but actually moving forward as a team?

If you ask me, moving forward means moving away from the chickenshit conservative style they had towards the end of Lou’s tenure and moving towards the kind of style that teams like Toronto and Tampa play. While they’re trying to do that and it’s not necessarily working, it’s better they do this than go back to playing the chickenshit style they played under DeBoer where the games would be much closer but they couldn’t win because they lacked the skill to win. The thing is with the way they’re playing, it’s going to be much easier to insert difference makers than it would be while playing a conservative style that relies on bad, risk averse players. This is important because they’ve done a better job drafting and most of the guys they’ve drafted are smaller, high skill guys. Someone like 2018 1st rounder Ty Smith- a 5’10”, 175-lb defenseman with great puck skills, is now much easier to play in a system where his puck skills matter rather than one where his puck skills have to be toned down to fit into the safer style. As long as they’re not going back to the ineffective conservative tactics that have failed them in recent years I’m fine with them losing while trying to play a more effective style.

Game #48 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Devils Douchebag Du Jour: The Worst Dynasty Ever

By Sam Fels January 14, 2019 1600 0

It says something of the nondescript nature of this Devils team that were still left to talk about the ones from the distant past in order to stir any kind of emotion. But that’s where we are. There’s nothing about this Devils team worth getting in a furor, or even a tizzy, over.

Normally, a team that defines an era is a celebration of it, no matter the sport. The Hawks moved along the line of the Red Wings in dominating the game through skill. The Penguins as well, with even greater star power. The Patriots through ruthless planning and quarterback excellence. The Cowboys of the 90s the greater speed needed. The Bulls on having the greatest player to play and killer defense at the right moment. You see where we’re going here.

The Devils were an example of the disintegrating of the sport. Their excellence came when the sport was impossible to watch, when the tactics employed were meant to destroy anything good about hockey. And they did it better than anyone–the clutching, grabbing, trapping, the boredom–which only made it harder to watch. As more and more eyes turned away from hockey, the Devils flourished and only expedited that process, and then more teams tried to copy them. They were sports’ Invisible Boy, only flourishing when no one was watching.

Of course, that only brought glory to fucking northern New Jersey, which is somehow perfect. A place no one wants to be with a team that no one wants to watch that no one could get rid of. It’s not even a place. It’s an area. It’s somewhere you might know on a map. Maybe. You think of landmarks anywhere else. Think of New Jersey, you basically think of sludge and pollution and highways to literally anywhere else. Maybe the airport. The Devils reflected that in hockey form.

It looks like hockey and the NHL has finally recovered from that era, with scoring up and more creative and fun players than perhaps they’ve ever had. It took this long. You can thank the Devils for that.

Game #48 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Devils: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 14, 2019 1388 0

Game #48 Preview Suite