
That is all.
Game #81 Preview Suite

That is all.
Game #81 Preview Suite

Notes: We have no idea what the Stars will look like tonight. Benn, Zuccarello, and Polak are staying home to rest up for next week so the lines will be shuffled all night. Imagine being in a spot where you feel you have to rest Roman Polak…Seguin has 18 points in his last 16 games, which should keep the CEO quiet for a few days…Bishop is hurt, though they’re fairly sure he’ll be ready for the playoffs, so it’s Khudobin tonight…Spezza has two goals in the year of 2019…

Notes: We imagine the Hawks will try and go out of the home schedule with a bang. Gilbert was sent down after his gift, so we imagine Colliton’s fascination with Forsling continues…Crow will start, and then they’ll pack him in ice and chrio-freeze him until training camp. Or they should…The second line actually had a strong possession game against the Blues, which is not something they’ve done a lot of even when they’ve been scoring…Anisimov’s line got its head kicked in. If you’re lucky, this is Arty’s last time in red…Same goes for Seabrook? Keith?

Game #81 Preview Suite
vs. 
RECORDS: Cubs 1-5 Brewers 6-1
GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10
TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday
THE GOOD LAND: Brew Crew Ball
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jose Quintana vs. Brandon Woodruff
Kyle Hendricks vs. Zach Davies
Probable Cubs Lineup
Probably Brewers Lineup
vs. 
RECORDS: Mariners 7-1, White Sox 2-3
DATES AND TIMES: Friday 1:10, Saturday 1:10, Sunday 1:10
TV: NBCSN Chicago Friday, WGN Saturday and Sunday
WHY IS IT ALWAYS RAINING?: Lookout Landing
PROBABLE STARTERS
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Reynaldo Lopez
Probable Mariners Lineup
As the researchers and analysts pick through the rubble of the Hawks season, a theme both the coverage and the players themselves have been harping on the past few days is that for the last month or so, something has clicked with the Hawks defensively. That they’re “getting” the changes Jeremy Colliton wants to make. I, of course, dismiss this out of hand because it’s my way and also happen to think this team sucks historically defensively.
Funny thing, the Hawks have improved the last month…and they still suck.
If you look at before and after March 1st, when everything supposedly “clicked,” the Hawks do show a marked improvement in most categories. They’ve dropped their attempts against per 60 from 59 per game to 55, which might not sound like much but it is. They’ve dropped their scoring-chances against from 30.8 per 60 to 27.4, which is bordering on a massive change. They’ve brought their high-danger chances against per 60 from 13.9 to 12.8, which is also something of a big drop.
The thing is, in those categories the Hawks are still near bottom of the league. The attempts-against per 60 is actually 10th in the league since March 1st, so hey, look at that! But the scoring chances against is 21st in the league, and the high-danger chances against mark is third-worst the past month. So while the improvement is better than the alternative, the overall total is still unacceptable. They may be moving in the right direction but there’s a lot of driving to be done on that road in that direction before anyone can feel satisfied.
I have to reiterate, if you go by expected goals against, this is the worst team in the past 10 years. Yes, it’s a higher-scoring environment, but still to be the worst on record is not something you’d want. Here’s another one for ya: this is also the worst penalty-kill in the past 10 years, by a tenth of a point. If the Hawks have a good PK weekend, they might overtake last year’s Islanders. So while the Hawks’ brass might point to any improvement and cling to any hope that Coach Cool Youth Pastor is getting through, they can’t mistake the overhaul on the blue line that needs to come. And if you want to blame the goaltending on the kill, the expected-goals mark on the kill is third-worst in the past 10 years. So without a miracle in net, the kill was always going to be this bad.
I like it when everyone’s right, don’t you?
As usual at this point in the season, not even a week in, it is folly and silly and other words that end in -lly to draw any grand conclusions. Anyone can have a hot week. Still, with as much riding on Yoan Moncada this season, we’ll forgive any Sox fan from having a chuckle at his first few games of 2019 (and basically we mean Fifth Feather, who needs all the chuckles he can get).
Last year did not go as a first full-season should for Yoan or anyone as prized as he is. He struck out a ton, played second base like he was being attacked by bees, and when he did make contact a bit too much of it was on the ground. Thankfully , this year has started in opposition to all of that.
Moncada has been something of a curious study because he clearly has a very good concept of the zone. He walks over 10% of the time. The natural conclusion is that with that kind of eye he should be able to get the bat to the ball whenever he wants. It doesn’t always work that way, and this is where Adam Dunn flashbacks occur for Sox fans. In addition, Moncada let a lot of pitches just go by him in the zone, only swinging at 60% of pitches in the zone (league-average was 66%). He was a bit too choosy, which if you have a Jewish mother like I did you’ve been yelled at about frequently.
That’s gone out the window so far, as Moncada is swinging at just a tick under 70% of the pitches he’s seen in the zone, and making more contact on them (85% this year to 80% last). Which is leading to some pretty hilarious numbers. The one that jumps out at me is that of Moncada’s contact, only 5% of it has been considered soft. Last year that was at 14%, which isn’t awful but clearly cutting that by nearly two-thirds is something to note. That mark is almost a quarter of the league-average.
To boot, Moncada is getting the ball in the air far more so far, at 52.9% of the time (40% last year). Now, Moncada isn’t going to carry a 22% HR/FB ration all year, and if he does it surely means the end of us all. But clearly, the fly ball revolution has now absorbed him into the cause.
As far as approach, a big difference we’ve seen this year so far is that Moncada isn’t helpless against a change-up. Last year, Moncada whiffed on nearly half the swings he took at change-ups, hit .205 and slugged .351. This year, on an admitted limited sample, he’s only swung and missed at 11% of the swings he’s taken, is hitting .500 and slugging 1.000. The obvious conclusion is that Moncada isn’t jumping at the ball the same way and being content to take a fastball out to left. Not rally the case here, as Moncada doesn’t really do much when he hits the opposite way but is murdering the ball when he pulls it. Either way, the Sox will take it.
If exit-velocity is your thing, Moncada’s average has risen from 90.6 MPH to 96.1 this year. Last year, the leading average exit-velocity was 94.7. So yeah, he’s cracking eight different kinds of shit out Rawlingses everywhere. Also, if you’re into this kind of thing, his barrel-percentage is nearly double so far over last year.
Again, anyone can have a hot week. And his .467 BABIP is not anything less than astronomical. But the changes in approach and the volume of contact (loud, not amount) suggests he will always carry a higher BABIP than normal, and that these changes are around for a while.
Put a couple beers in a Cubs fan right now, never that hard of a task, and I bet a good portion of them would tell you there’s a level of schadenfreude with the team right now. After they spent the offseason crying poor, the front office pointing fingers every outward but certainly not inward, and everything else, the Cubs are being undone by what they ignored and arrogantly thought would fix itself, the bullpen. And it being this early in the season, and only four games, it hasn’t come anywhere close to derailing the season. You can just see how it might.
At the top, and as I’ve repeated all offseason, you can remake a bullpen on the fly. The Nationals did it just two years ago (with Brandon Kintzler as part of that). The Red Sox simply ignored their bullpen in the postseason last year. There will be a bevy of guys on teams out of it who for no reason whatsoever are throwing 97 with a slider from nowhere that you can have for B-level and C-level prospects. This is probably what the Cubs will do, and most likely they’ll be fine. It just didn’t have to be like this.
I had wondered if Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer knew about the budget Tom Ricketts was going to hand them at the outset of the offseason. But as was pointed out to me on Twitter, the fact that they sent Drew Smyly away to extend Cole Hamels probably indicates that they did. So one has to ask if that really was the right move. Because if the thinking was that the pen as currently constructed was going to just right itself, it makes you think that pitching isn’t just a spotty mark on the record of this regime, but a clear blindspot. Remember, we’re still waiting for the first pitcher Theo has drafted to actually come up for air and do something here. Hendricks and Edwards Jr. are trades, and we’ll get to the latter soon.
Because what did the Cubs have coming out of last year? Pedro Strop, who is wonderful and insane and I love him but also has missed big chunks of time with injury two of the past three years and turns 34 this season. It seems to me that the Cubs want to treat their signing of Brandon Morrow as something other than bad, but it very well may be. Morrow only has one full season of being a dominant reliever and a whole lot of injury problems. He’s far from a sure thing, and yet the Cubs are happy to tell you his absence is the main problem in order to do themselves credit, as well as blaming Joe Maddon for having the temerity to pitch him three days in a row at the end of May. The end of May is when a pitcher should be in peak health. If he can’t do it then, he can’t do it, and hence is not a plus piece to have around.
Carl Edwards Jr. is a basketcase and has never proven to be anything else. Brandon Kintzler has one good season, and his ground-ball rate, his main weapon, has been dropping for three straight years. Randy Rosario doesn’t strike anyone out and was bad last year and can only claim to throw with his left hand. They couldn’t honestly sell Tyler Chatwood as anything other than a lottery ticket bought while drunk and using consecutive numbers.
Perhaps they thought they could count on Steve Cishek. Here’s the problem: the history of relievers who crack 80 appearances over the age of 30 is not really encouraging.
Zach Duke did it three years ago at 33, and the next season saw his K/9 rate drop in half and his FIP double. In 2017 Bryan Shaw reached 79 appearances at 29. The next year his walk-rate doubled. Only Joel Peralta survived that threshold in 2013 at that age and came back fine the next year. Or at least his peripherals did, but his ERA was still over 4.00.
The Cubs front office has been acting like the smartest guys in the room for so long now that perhaps they’ve failed to realize they’re getting passed.
Now you can also throw this at the Ricketts, who even if they took the “Look what you’ve done with our money already” tact can’t then tell the front office to go stuff it with such a clear weakness. But is that $13M net-spend on Hamels worth more than two relievers right now? If the multi-year commitment to Andrew Miller made them nervous because he’s already in decline in skill and physically, that’s cool. Don’t want to blow it all on Zach Britton? Fair, or at least understandable. I wasn’t married to Jesse Chavez. He’s a guy.
But maybe Joakim Soria? Only $7.5M per. Seems a better bet than Brad Brach.
It’s important to reserve judgement until we see what the Cubs do over the next few months. Maybe they hated the reliever market in the winter altogether and didn’t want to force it. Fine. But when they say they have the deepest crop of pitchers waiting in Iowa they’ve ever had, why should anyone take that at face value? Again, this isn’t a front office that’s produced a quality reliever or starter yet (Hector Rondon was their Rule 5 pick, but that just means he didn’t come through the system). The Cubs couldn’t wait to tell every beat writer about their technology and gizmos to measure their pitching in the system. But at this point, Cubs fans are more than excused for not wanting the labor pains, just the baby.
Actually, sounds a little like the Hawks and their blue line, doesn’t it?
We’ve spent a lot of time reading tea leaves with the Hawks and what they say in the press. You don’t have to decode much to get to the heart of what Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane were getting at yesterday:
Kane: “Yeah it’s tough. It’s just crazy that our season’s gonna be over in five days and that’s it for another year. Pretty frustrating, especially when I think a lot of us feel like we’re in our prime and be able to contribute, and had good seasons. But that’s the way it is.
— Scott Powers (@ByScottPowers) April 3, 2019
More Toews: “And the guys that have been here for a while learning that no one really cares what you did years ago. We’ve gotta keep pushing ourselves to get better and better. The league’s getting better, our division’s getting better, so it’s tough. It’s a tough league.”
— Scott Powers (@ByScottPowers) April 3, 2019
Clearly, the two main vets are not exactly thrilled with the front office or some other veterans in the room. Let’s try to unpack it all.
-You can understand why the players might be upset at no reinforcements at the deadline, because they did scrap and claw their way back into contention. You can also understand why any competent front office is not going to give up any prospect or draft pick for a player to maybe help them get labeled by the Flames in the first round. That’s not how you build a team. Players’ emotions often don’t align with the cold calculation of a front office. And that’s fine.
Still, it’s got to go deeper than this. We know Kane is maniacal in the offseason about working on his game, and it’s clear Toews is transforming the player he is from last year as well. He’s even said it’s a multi-year process. They saw what happened in the summer, and you can be sure that when those signings were made both Toews and Kane were like, “But those guys suck.” Players know, no matter what they say for public consumption.
It’s also clear that both Kane and Toews know the clock is ticking. Kane’s two best seasons individually have resulted in no playoff series wins. Toews heard he was finished, remade his game and body, had a career year, and did it for a pretty puke-tastic team. Where you could apportion some blame for last year to Toews, you can’t this year. They know they don’t have that many times at-bat being able to catch up to a good fastball. It stands to reason they’re not very interested in wasting another one on the likes of Brandon Manning.
-And it wouldn’t be a huge leap to suggest that Toews’s quote there, about no one caring what you did a few years ago, was meant to land right at the feet of the alternate captains. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook can run to friendly, Canadian writers all they want to proclaim how much they want to stay, but their play has clearly been making another statement. Last night was another excellent display of Keith drained of fucks to give, which Hess summed up pretty well last night. As I tweeted, his indifference is bordering on open rebellion.
What’s clear, and Bowman has said as much, is that he and McD will go to THE FOUR and lay out what the plan is to not have them go through a season like this again. But that meeting is going to be a lot more contentious than the Hawks were anticipating. Toews and Kane clearly have expectations, and the cards to act on them. Keith is either going to need a serious come-to-Jesus talk from all parties, or he’s going to have to be launched. If Keith is going to continue to clearly demonstrate he thinks his coach is an idiot, that can fester and grow in a dressing room and become a real problem. You know what that looks like? The pre-Berube Blues.
If the Hawks are married to Jeremy Colliton, and I’m not here to tell you they should be but they are, then you can’t have your most decorated player undermining him at every turn. Hess said as much.
This about as pointed as Toews and Kane have ever gotten in the press, so relatively this is basically them shouting. This is what happens when you biff a second straight season. This is what happens when you make a bunch of noise about how this is a playoff team and then don’t do anything to back that up. This is what happens when your players think you’re either lying or incompetent.
The Hawks’ brass already had a serious selling job to do this summer. Turns out the biggest of it might be to their own players.
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Now that the Hawks games mean nothing, it’s hard to imagine getting worked up about these games in any way, and yet seeing them play their asses off and outplaying the Blues, I found myself sitting on my couch feeling like this guy. As a wrestling fan myself, I can empathize with feeling emotionally invested in something you know isn’t what it’s presented as, and tonight that was me, constantly battling this desire for the Hawks to not drop themselves farther down the draft lottery (which, they can’t climb much higher anyway, so that’s dumb too) and rooting like hell for them to beat the Blues. Some things are bigger than logic. Fuck you St. Louis. Let’s do this:
– Just about everyone at this here site was unavailable to some extent tonight, so I took up the sword but still missed the first period. When I got the game on with about 17 left in the second, I was pretty surprised by how competitive and hard the Hawks were playing in this game despite the games now being meaningless as I said before. It was clear from the quotes from Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane today that these guys are pissed off about missing the playoffs again, and they definitely channeled that into a desire to fuck over the Blues and their playoff seeding hopes. There were still plenty of gaffes in here on the Hawks end, and we will talk about a few of them, but seeing them respond was at least notable, I think. If only they had cared about this season a few months ago. Maybe they can actually carry this piss and vinegar into next year.
– It’s still hilarious to me that the Hawks got Dylan Strome for Nick Schmaltz. Not that Schmaltz wasn’t and isn’t a fine player (though now one that is WAY overpaid), but we definitely knew what he was by the time the Hawks sent him to the desert for Strome, who had barely gotten enough of a sniff of the NHL to have any conclusion that he couldn’t hit the ceiling that was once considered very high. And yeah, his shortcomings are there, and have been all year. But dammit if he doesn’t make up for it enough with the vision and hands, and the pass he made to Kane tonight on the third Hawks goal was just another example of that. The Hawks are definitely coming out on top of this one.
– Let’s talk about some gaffes. Firstly, Seabrook and Forsling were out there together again tonight. Not for long, but any shifts of those two together is too many. That’s the whole gaffe. Please stop that. EDIT– Forsling didn’t play tonight, I just stink at paying attention to who’s out there. I guess I’ve just been traumatized by 7-42 so often that I just expect it even when it isn’t happening.
– Now the elephant in the room, which at this point has now sat on and destroyed your couch, coffee table, recliner, and television: Duncan Keith could not give less of a fuck about playing hockey for Jeremy Colliton. Truthfully, I wish I could show the level of contempt and disinterest in my job that this guy does and still have the level of job security he does. We know the give a shit meter was already on zero, but he just about sent it negative tonight, particularly on the Blues third goal. To have little interest in playing well at this point can be understood, given that the Hawks are fucked, but to just have no intent to even feign effort at this point is almost impressive.
– And that brings us to an important thought – the Hawks might have to pick between the wife and the dog this summer. It’s clear that the wife (Keith, because he’s made our lives better for years and we never appreciate him enough) does not want the dog (Colliton, because he’s smelly and keeps shitting himself everywhere) around any longer. But as can happen, we may see this summer that the Hawks have overcommitted themselves to the dog. Perhaps these two will come to an agreement over the summer. Maybe an addition of a real defenseman that can partner with him will turn Keith’s give-a-shit meter back up. Maybe Colliton really will get motherfucked into becoming a good coach by this blog. Maybe neither happen and we’re stuck in a bad marriage with a stupid dog (I don’t hate dogs, I love them, but this one is stupid) and we will be miserable again for another year. Who knows! Eat at Arby’s.
– We almost made it, folks. Two more.