Everything Else

Maybe They Don’t Have A Plan So They Can’t Keep Changing It

By Sam Fels 2080 0

As the weekend wore on, I sold myself more and more on the Kirby Dach pick. We’ll never know, but my hope is at #3 the Hawks wouldn’t ever pick for need. Those picks come around maybe once or twice a decade (unless you’re the Oilers), and you take the best player on your board. If for the Hawks that was Dach, fine. Any argument for Turcotte there seems equal to me as Dach at this point, and at least Dach was playing in the realest junior league. He also seems to have a higher ceiling, and I’m always here for guys who make the game look easy, as Dach does, than go-go-motor guys like Turcotte kept being advertised as. That “making it look easy” can easily devolve into just remaining on the perimeter and fading into the background of games, which is why the Getzlaf comparisons are frightening. It’s up to the Hawks to make sure that doesn’t happen.

But what bothers me about the whole drafting policy is that it seems a whole new sense of direction, and a dumb one at that. We’re only two years removed from THAT press conference after the Predators had left tire tracks all over the Hawks where Stan Bowman definitely wrestled total control of personnel from Quenneville and his cronies, and promised that this team would and had to get faster. Saad-for-Panarin didn’t really make the Hawks faster, but you could see the logic (only kind of). Murphy-for-Hammer did make them more mobile on the blue line.

And their draft kind of reflected it. Jokiharju is hardly big and is supposedly mobile, though I haven’t really seen that yet. Ian Mitchell is definitely mobile. Altybarmarkyan is small and fast. Evan Barrat isn’t even that quick and he’s small too. Same goes for Tim Soderlund.

Last year’s offseason moves are barely worth talking about, because all it really included was Bowman spiking Q with Brandon Manning. But signings like Kampf (admittedly earlier) and Kahun and other Euro signings stuck to the “getting quicker” theme. And at the draft it was Boqvist, Beaudin, Kurashev. All meant to get to playing at a quicker pace in the future, especially from the back end. They even reached on Boqvist to do that.

And now we’re here. Dach at #3, Vlasic at #43, who just happens to be 6-5 with skating concerns. Michal Teply is 6-3, and he doesn’t have the skating worries that Vlasic does but the “good speed for his size” doesn’t make you think he’s a burner.

This goes along with the rumors that the Hawks are hot after Anders Lee, who is a good player and has a fit here but is also something of a big plodder. So has there been a gear shift? And why?

The why you know, even if it is complete horseshit. I don’t know how the Hawks could buy into the theory that the Bruins and Blues grunted and farted their way to the Final through the use of viking warlords or something. Here’s the Blues top players from the playoffs, and that’s even if you think you should be using a team that missed the playoffs last year and then got sweetheart matchups all the way to the Final as some sort of model:

Schwartz, Schenn, Tarasenko, O’Reilly, Perron, Pietrangelo, and Parayko.

I guess Pietrangelo and Parayko are big and the latter plays like it, but where are these crushers at forward? Do the Hawks really think Pat Goddamn Maroon is such a difference maker they need like four of him.

Now the Bruins:

Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, McAvoy, Krug, Grzelcyk.

Chara was a fucking anchor all playoffs. Where are the monsters here as far as size? Back it out to the conference finals and you have the Canes, who simply battered Lee’s Islanders, and the Sharks. Again, where are the heathen hordes on those teams? Or on the Lightning, who did manage to be one of of the best teams ever in the much larger sample size of the regular season?

I don’t know where the Hawks think they’re going to go by getting slower. What are you going to do about Colorado on the five nights you’re lining up against MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, Byram, and Girard? If Nashville does sign Duchene, he is pretty damn quick if nothing else. Did Winnipeg lose speed? You’re still trying to catch up to all these teams, and you’re going to do it with Anders Lee and Olli Maatta?

Having your finger in the wind isn’t a plan, and maybe that’s why the Hawks have told you they don’t have a plan.

-The Hawks were making it seem like they really want Dach to take a spot this season, though most experts think that’s a stretch The thing is, they can shelter him just about as well as any team could. A center at 18, you’d want to keep him at the offensive end as often as possible. Which means you’d have to have Kampf and Toews take most of the defensive zone shifts. And you can do that, but is that what Toews is anymore? He could do it, but you’d lose a fair amount of offense from him because he’s no longer the guy who can continually flip the ice. Maybe he’s got one more year of doing that in him, but I’m skeptical.

And who would Toews do that with? Saad in theory, but then who? Would be a waste of Kane (and don’t be surprised if you never see Kane and Saad on a line together ever again) or DeBrincat. Is that what Lee would be for? That involves flipping Saad over to the right, which he’s never really taken to. It’s an odd fit, though I guess you could scratch it out.

Then one wonders who plays with Dach. Kane? You want shooters with Kane, and Dach isn’t that. Just give him Kubalik and like, Sikura and shelter them as heavily as possible?

The problem for Dach might not be what he can do, but what the Hawks can give him. Still, I find it hard to believe that there’s that much benefit from beating up on children he’s already played with for another season, and because the AHL isn’t an option you might as well keep him here. At least show some urgency. You just said it’s not like you’re waiting for him to grow.

 

 

 

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Lose 2 of 3 Against Rangers: SSDD

By Andy Jonathan 1139 0

Game 1: Sox 5 – Rangers 4 (10 Innings)

Game 2: Sox 5 – Rangers 6

Game 3: Sox 4 – Rangers 7

 

Same shit, different day.  That’s the only way you can sum up the stream of drizzling shits the White Sox starting rotation oozes out series after series.  If Giolito isn’t pitching the Sox offense is going to have to carry the day, unless it’s the 1 out of 5 starts where Nova or Lopez is useful.  I’ve seen 5000% more Odrisamer Despagine starts then I’ve ever cared to in my entire life, and yet I know Hahn and Renteria are going to trot him out there again to kick off the Twins series next weekend.  I’d be willing to bet Vegas sets the over/under for that game somewhere around 18 runs to start.

I understand that injuries are a thing, and the Sox staff has been hit with more than their fair share of them this season, but so have other teams.  The Yankees have had every single one of their starters hurt at one point or another this season, and yet their games seem to be eminently watchable.  Can you imagine the frothing fury of the New York media if Brian Cashman signed Despagine for any reason OTHER than to carry buckets of sunflower seeds to the bullpen?  The New York Post would spontaneously combust in people’s hands (which is probably best for everybody involved).  Yet here the Sox sit, Hahn never really having to answer to anyone as to why he thinks this rotation is acceptable.   He gets to hide in the shadow of the North Siders, and we are stuck watching it.  On top of that the Hawks traded Pittsburgh for a cantaloupe on skates, and the Predators sent PK Subban to New Jersey for some seashells and a bottle of isopropyl alcohol.  Sigh.

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

-At least there was some fun stuff this series.  Zack Collins finally got to start a game, and rewarded Renteria with a 3 run shot to dead center field.  He waited until Jurado made a mistake with a 2-2 slider and stepped into it for an exciting start to his career.  It was his only hit of the series, but at least he made it count.  His first time behind the dish was catching for Despagine, so I guess the jury is going to remain out on his ability to catch a major league starter for a bit longer.

-Tim Anderson seems to be heating up again, hitting safely in all 3 games and absolutely pummeling the Rangers pitching staff in game 2 to the tune of 4 RBIs.  He only sees about 8 pitches a game, but if he wants to swing like Javy Baez and he can have the same results I’m all for it.  Like Sam said in our round table for the Cubs/Sox series, there are going to peaks and valleys to players who treat plate discipline like it’s pizza in St. Louis, but as long as the peaks are as high as Timmy’s have been so far it’s gonna be fun.

-Ryan Cordell is nice and all, but he’s not a major league starter.  As soon as they’re able to voodoo Jon Jay back to life, he needs to shamble his ass out to right field because I’m kinda done with Cordell.  Bryce Harper woulda looked pretty good out there too, but whatever.

-Don’t look now but Jace Fry and Kelvin Herrera have a pulse.  Both have looked pretty solid over the last few appearances, and Herrera even scored the win in game 1.  Combined with Colome and Bummer, the back end of the Sox bullpen is looking pretty tasty right now.

-Reynaldo Lopez gave up a bundle of runs early then settled down to a decent line in night one.  His changeup was not locating well, unless you were sitting in right center field and looking for a souvenir, but he was able to (mostly) use his fastball to keep the Rangers off balance.  I don’t know quite what it is, but if Lopez can get through the first inning OK it usually results in a pretty solid start for him.  Maybe lay off the monster energy drink in his pregame routine, I dunno.  Either way, the Sox need to see more of him if they’re gonna pencil him in as the 5th starter for the 2021 world series team.

-Yonder Alonso fucking sucks, and from here on out he should never start over Zack Collins unless they accidentally leave Collins on the bus and he gets stuck in Texas.  Maybe not even then.

 

Next up is a trip to Beantown.  If anyone happens to see Brad Marchand sitting in/next to a dumpster please send pictures.

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Mets: Pulled Back From The Edge

By Sam Fels 1276 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 7, Mets 4

Game 2 Box Score: Mets 5, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Mets 10, Cubs 2

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 5, Mets 3

There have been a handful of times this year, going against my try-to-keep-calm nature about a baseball season, where I’ve been on the precipice of getting worried or upset about this team and thinking it might need bigger changes than I thought. Or giving up on any sort of glory in October. And then right about as I’m going to Tommen myself over the edge, they’ve pulled a rabbit. Splitting with the Sox and Mets isn’t exactly acceptable, but losing three of four to the Mets would have been far worse. Now you’re only one game off where you should have been on this homestand really, and a series win over the admittedly molten Braves probably gets you there. There’s still much to complain about, but now they’re just complaints instead of outright beefs.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Javy Baez’s last two ABs are the difference between the raw variety show he used to be and All-Star he is now. He was completely overmatched by deGrom in his first two PAs, though a lot of hitters were. He couldn’t pick up the slider and he wasn’t getting within a foot of it. Then in his third AB he went with a plan, fought off some tough pitches, and muscled a single through the middle. Gained a little confidence, and even being down 0-2 to Lugo didn’t phase him. And then he finally remembered right field is legal, and pulled his team’s ass out of a sling. I shouldn’t doubt him.

-If you do want to worry, here’s Jose Quintana for you. It was only four starts ago that he did throw seven against the Rockies, but walks in the last three have been a problem. Yesterday he was wild in the zone, and though I thought he had some rough BABIP luck with Jeff McNeil basically cricket-ing a double for two runs, he fell apart after that. I think it’s just a blip, but when he got in trouble yesterday he abandoned his change. He can’t do that, because then he’s just two pitches. Even if he doesn’t have a feel for it, he’s got to find it. Hopefully back to basics soon.

-I’ve had enough of McNeil and Alonso for a while, thank you.

-Alzolay’s debut was certainly enticing, and no one should get ahead of themselves. But he does present some more interesting options, and one of them the Cubs will use this week is six starters to keep everyone fresh. When Hendricks returns he could again be what Chatwood and Montgomery could have been, a multi-inning weapon out of the pen. He was going to be on an innings-limit anyway. We’re a long way from that, but it’s at least something to get excited about.

-Friday’s loss is the one that hurts. Sometimes it’s not your day and you get stuffed like Saturday. But Friday was there for them. Yu was itchy again, there seems to be this fascination with getting Brach right even though he probably won’t be here next week, and then continued use of Montgomery as a LOOGY which he’s never been. It’s not like McNeil crushed that ball off of him or anything but Monty isn’t missing a ton of bats either. Give him a clean inning, or two, or three. It’s what he’s built to do. He’s not a high-leverage one-hitter dude. Add up enough games you feel like you should have gotten and you’re in the muck with the Brewers and Cardinals. And no one wants that.

-Bryant has two homers in June. He’s slugging .453 in the month. Are we a touch worried about either wear or the shoulder again? This seems long for a slump.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Of Course They’d Take The One We Didn’t Preview – Hawks Select Kirby Dach

By Sam Fels 3778 0

I knew it would happen this morning, and Jay Zawaski pretty much told me it would happen. But I didn’t do anything about it. Anyway, this isn’t about me. The Hawks used their third pick to take Kirby Dach out of the WHL.

So what’s Dach’s deal? If the Hawks tell you they weren’t smitten by his size, they’re lying through their teeth and even those are false. However, that’s unfair to Dach to merely call him a big body. As far as vision and hands, most will tell you Dach’s are only second to Jack Hughes, and might even be a match. He’s a highlight reel waiting to happen, and if hockey were to ever have a Magic Johnson type-passer, here you go. Dach is going to send a few fans, and one certain color analyst, into orbit a couple times with his deferential play, but the plays he will make probably make up for that. And you can add looking for your own shot to one’s game over the years. You can’t add how they see the ice.

Dach skates very well for a player his size, so if you’re having shivers about another Strome or Anisimov, don’t. He’s a better skater than both of them now by some distance and that might improve. 73 points at 18 in the WHL, probably the realest league of the CHL, isn’t anything to sneeze at, though it’s not galactic.

The drawbacks for Dach are that some scouts, ones that probably snort a lot, believe he can be pushed around and out of games. There’s also some question about whether he brings it every night, because the ability to dominate every game is there. He’s big but is going to need some time with Paul Goodman, and a lot of it. The hope for the Hawks, if any of that is true, is that A) Dach’s playoff performance in 10 games was something that refuted a lot of this, and B) being around Jonathan Toews will show him the way. We shall see.

So what does this mean for the Hawks next year? Stan Bowman said after the pick they’re going to give him every chance to make the team this year. So look for him to get at least some if not all the nine game tryout, and he’ll have to kill it to stick. But if the Hawks are determined to get him on the team, you’d have to believe that Artem Anisimov is a goner. We can only hope. Still, it’s a little strange that no later than 2020-2021, the Hawks will have two sizable, pass-first centers. Then again, you can’t ever be too deep down the middle. So whatever.

Still, the Hawks still have no answers on the blue line. They have no one poised to be on their top pairing who can either do it or is ready for it, and that’s going to need addressing. Even if Dach makes the team, the top six looks short one finisher, though maybe after all this time Saad is going to be it (HA!). That also might need addressing.

There’s a lot of boom promised with Dach. There’s also a fair amount of bust. And whatever he is, the Hawks can’t be done. And the notion that Bowen Byram went next and will be in the division, and he solved a lot more than Dach does right now…well, good luck, kid.

Everything Else

In The Words Of My Father: No No No F**K No

By Sam Fels 2868 0

That was usually the response after a viewing of my report card. Anyway…

So there was this. You ever had food turn to ash in your mouth, like that curse in the only good “Pirates Of The Caribbean?” Or a beer just go to pure salt? That feeling that your organs are actually melting and will soon excrete out your pores? Yeah, that was my reaction to this. It’s also the same feeling as watching Corey Perry play.

I know what the writers will say. He’s motivated. He’ll come cheap. He was once great. He brings “an edge.” Veteran leadership. Feel free to add your own hockey bullshit terms and ideas. You know what they are by now.

I can’t stress this enough. Corey Perry is finished. Done. Ex-Perry. Ceased to be. Shuffled off the mortal coil. He is no more. Not only did he come up with a mere six goals in 31 games last year, he did that coming off total knee surgery. He can’t move. And if he can’t move, he can’t score. He can’t even annoy, because you can’t annoy when you’re never within 20 feet of the puck. The only time he can annoy is after whistles, which only gets you a lot of penalties.

On top of that, his metrics are woeful. He couldn’t keep up with the Ducks, who were woeful themselves and coached by a GM who comes close to drowning in the rain. And he had those terrible metrics while getting to start most of his shifts in the offensive zone. He spent all his time backing up. Actually, he spent most of his time racing the trailing official back to his zone. He can’t do anything.

It has been four seasons since Corey Perry managed 20 goals. You can find probably 50 guys who can get you 15 goals who can actually skate and not cost you a penalty per night. He’s not even worth the risk for a bottom six, because your bottom six has to be fast in either a checking role or simply trying to match a fourth line. There is no room for plodders. Perry no longer has the skill to make up for being unable to move, unlike the past where his skill made up for middling skating ability. He’s a buoy in a dried up lake bed.

Sure, the bottom six is where you can take a risk or two. Because these days it feels like your bottom six is equivalent to a bullpen. You keep pulling the handle on it year after year and then one day you get the three 7s or whatever and you’re good. And then the next year all the same players could suck for no reason other than they are middling NHLers and that’s what they do. Don’t fucking tell me Pat Maroon was the key to the Blues success, which is clearly what the Hawks think they can replicate here. This is learning the wrong lessons. If you end up playing well then you trade for guys you wouldn’t normally stash on your bottom six but can in a playoff run like Marcus Johansson or Antoine Vermette once upon a time. Carl Hagelin in the past. That type.

If you wanted useful players on your bottom six for cheap, you wouldn’t have traded Domink Kahun for a medicine ball with a dumb face. Did you see David Backes this year? That’s what Perry will be, except likely worse (though cheaper). There is no, “Well, maybe he could…”  He can’t. And he sucks. And he’s a penis. Speed, speed, speed. Out and up the ice. Pressure everywhere. Perry helps you with exactly none of these things.

Why do I think this is going to be a disastrous week and a half for the Hawks?

Baseball

Series Preview: White Sox at Rangers – Mystery Men

By Andy Jonathan 1521 0

  VS

Records: White Sox 35-37  / Rangers 40-35

Gametimes: Friday/Saturday 7:05  Sunday 2:05

TV: NBCSN

Where The Buffalo Roam:  Lone Star Ball

Probable Starters:

Reynaldo Lopez vs Ariel Jurado

Odrisamer Despaigne vs Lance Lynn

Chevy Nova vs Adrian Simpson

PROBABLE LINEUPS:

RANGERS

  1. Shin-Soo Choo – DH
  2. Delino DeShields – CF
  3. Elvis Andrus – SS
  4. Nomar Mazara – RF
  5. Willie Calhoun – LF
  6. Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B
  7. Rougned Odor – 2B
  8. Ronald Guzman – 1B
  9. Jeff Mathis – C

 

WHITE SOX

  1. Leury Garcia – CF
  2. Tim Anderson – SS
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann (C/DH)
  5. Eloy Jimenez – LF
  6. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  7. Zack Collins (C/DH)
  8. Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
  9. Ryan Cordell (RF)

 

The Sox travel to the deep south this weekend after their backwards split with the North Siders in the middle of the week.  Down in Arlington they find a team that…should not be.  The Rangers currently sit in 2nd place in the AL West despite what was supposedly a rebuilding year for them, especially after a dead last finish the previous season.  Looking at the Rangers lineup, there really is no reason for them to be in 2nd place, or in wild card contention yet here we are.  Baseball is weird sometimes.

Their two biggest additions this past offseason were Lance Lynn and Hunter Pence, two guys who were expected to be just that.  Guys.  Position fillers until they’re either moved at the deadline for future assets, or placeholders until the next generation shows up to take their jobs.  They certainly weren’t expected to be doing what they’re currently doing.  Lance Lynn is the 2nd best pitcher in the entire league according to Fangraphs, and Hunter Pence (before he exploded his groin a few days ago) was expected to compete for an All Star spot in a crowded AL outfield.  Pence’s OBPS currently sits at a goofy .962, almost .200 points higher than his career average.  While Lynn’s peripheral stats suggest that this year might actually be sustainable, Pence’s ones really do not.

After those two, the monsters were supposed to be Joey Gallo and Elvis Andrus.  Gallo was tearing his way to an MVP level season before being felled by an oblique issue a few weeks ago.  Andrus continues to be what the Rangers hoped he would be, continuing his pseudo-breakout season from 2018.  He hits for pop, and plays well enough defense as to not be worried every time a ball shoots his way.  Shin-Soo Choo continues to be the most consistent thing about this roster, despite entering into his 37th year of existence.

The Rangers rotation is basically Lynn and Mike Minor, then a bunch of spare parts (sound familiar?). Minor is having an excellent year, and the pair of them are basically dragging the rest of the rotation into normalcy.  The bullpen is constantly in flux, as is the closer role.  Jose Leclerc was supposed to continue his breakout season from last year, but instead started off the year giving up somewhere around 389 earned runs.  Shawn Kelley has taken the reigns, but not to the point that Leclerc has been removed from the conversation.

The Sox come into the series after an ass backwards split with the Cubs that saw Ivan Nova and not Lucas Giolito hold the Cubs bats at bay.  The most concerning thing that came out of the series is that it seems Ricky Renteria is continuing his tradition of pushing his players to play through injuries.  Yoan Moncada has outright said that his back is more painful hitting from the right side, yet there he was Wednesday night being part of a double switch and attempting to bunt.  Leury Garcia is clearly nursing some type of lower body injury, as he doesn’t have his usual explosive speed and first step.  It brings to mind the dumbshittery Renteria pulled with Avi Garcia and his knee last season.

At any rate, if the Sox want to take this series the bats are going to have to be they way it’s done, as the combined ERA of all 3 Sox starters requires a TI-82 to calculate.  The Rangers lineup might not look threatening, especially missing Gallo and Pence, but they’ve been making it work all season.  Time to solve the puzzle and take 2 of 3 because you know O-Driss is gonna give up 9.

LETS GO SOX

Baseball

Rangers Spotlight: Huh?

By Andy Jonathan 1585 0

I’m gonna throw out a super weird stat for you.  Ready?  Here it goes:  Lance Lynn is currently the second best pitcher in all of baseball, according to Fangraphs.  Seriously.  If you were like me, that statement was definitely worth a double take at your computer screen.  Lynn has always been a solid, if unspectacular starter throughout his MLB career which up until recently was confined to the wastelands of St. Louis.  He debuted with somewhat of a bang in 2012, winning 18 games with a 3.78 ERA and 180 strikeouts.  That 18 wins has been the high watermark for him so far, as the closest he’s gotten since then was 15 (twice, in 2013 and 2014).  His stats have been pretty consistent along those lines, averaging somewhere between a 3.60-4.00 ERA, hovering around 170 Ks and a decent 3ish WAR.

So how has he gone from these satisfactory numbers to the more impressive ones he has this year?  Pitchers in their 7th season of playing usually don’t end up with their best seasons unless you’re Charlie Morton and the Astros have sprinkled their pixie dust on your elbow.  So is there a regression cliff ahead of this guy’s road to the AL Cy Young award?  If you look at the advanced stats you’d be surprised to see (again) that his numbers could actually stand to be a little better.  His K/9% is within his career averages, as is his BABIP and his strand rate.  His HR/FB ratio is down, but not to the point where you’d think it’s an aberration, especially with someone who’s fastball has a lot of sink on it.  So here’s where it gets kinda weird.  His FIP currently sits an entire point below his ERA, which leads you to believe that he’s not getting any help behind him, and he plays in a shit stadium for pitchers both things that are accurate.

He’s also added a few MPH to his fastball, which at his age is fairly impressive.  The other thing he’s doing is throwing the ball more consistently for strikes, cutting his walk rate by a few percent.  He’s also gotten his swinging strike rate up above 10%, which he hasn’t been able to do in half a decade.  Lynn credits the Rangers strength and conditioning coach with the increased velocity, and his ability to go deeper into games. So taking all that into account, it certainly seems like this Lance Lynn is the real deal, at least as far as I can tell looking at his advanced stats (and my fantasy baseball team ranking).  All this could be a mirage, I suppose, but the numbers don’t really support any severe regression coming.  Maybe all you have to do as a pitcher is get as far away from Imo’s Pizza as you possibly can?

The Rangers have definitely gotten themselves a steal in the offseason.  He’s certainly a major reason why Texas is in the thick of things in the AL west, and major obstacle for the Sox this weekend, especially if Leury Garcia and Yoan Moncada are hurting more than Galaxy Brain Renteria is letting on.

 

 

Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present: Trevor Zegras

By Sam Fels 1623 0

We round out our look at possibilities for the Hawks at #3, assuring that they won’t actually take any of these guys, and we’ll stay with the USNMTDP, or whatever alphabet soup makes up what goes on in Ann Arbor. It’s Trevor Zegras.

Physical Stats

Height: 6′ 0″  Weight: 174   Shoots: L

On Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP   Team: USNTDP  Pos: C/LW

60 games – 26 G – 61 A – 87 P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

If their Marian Hossa withdrawal is that bad, then Zegras might be the fix. Yes, every goddamn prospect who at least shows a passing interest in his own end gets compared to Marian Hossa, but Zegras might actually deserve it. He has plus-plus speed, and a great burst to get to it, and he is as willing to show it off getting back to his own zone as he is going forward. The inhaling of puck-carriers and stealing the puck you remember from #81 could be a hallmark of Zegras’s game as well, though he’s not as big (we’ll get to that). But it’s not just about willingness with Zegras, who has premier playmaking ability and vision. His hand-eye is also high up if not off the charts, which makes him a weapon around the net. Zegras also is something of a pain in the ass, in a good way, and you know how that always has hockey execs reaching for a hand towel. Zegras is strong for his size and age, but also isn’t afraid of getting into people’s heads and I’m sure a Brad Marchand comparison isn’t too far into his future. Zegras also have positional flexibility, being able to play center and wing, which means he can be eased into the league whenever he gets there on the wing and then moved to center if need be.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him.

Along with being a stretch, Zegras is probably the farthest away from the NHL of everyone previewed. He will need at least a year at BU, and maybe two, as the game he wants to play is going to require strength he hasn’t needed yet and doesn’t have. Second, while the positional flexibility is a good thing to have, there are better players at each of them the Hawks can have. If they really want a center, Turcotte is probably better bet and comes with a lot of the same qualities. If it’s a wing they want, then get Caufield who already has an NHL-level skill in scoring, and perhaps a high-level NHL skill. And at just 6-0, playing a grinding game as Zegras is tempted to do might wear him down pretty quickly. And there’s always a chance he becomes in love with his nuisance persona, but that’s being harsh.

Verdict

Zegras seems a nice floor guy. You know that at minimum you’ll get a two-way center or wing with a lot of speed who probably rarely if ever drops out of your bottom six. But at #3, you shouldn’t be worried about floor but ceiling, and his is a touch lower than Byram’s or Turcotte’s or even Caufield’s. While two years waiting isn’t that long, and Zegras could likely be ready after just a year at BU, the Hawks really can’t risk waiting around for two seasons for this pick to make an impact. By that point they may already be toast. A couple slots lower and this pick would make all the sense in the world. At #3, it would be kind of a lack of imagination.

Baseball

Series Preview – Mets vs. Cubs: Something About These Colors

By Sam Fels 1270 0

vs.

RECORDS: Mets 35-39   Cubs 40-33

GAMETIMES: Thursday 7:05, Friday-Sunday 1:20

TV: Thursday WGN, Friday NBCSN, Saturday and Sunday ABC

ASLEEP ON THE 7 TRAIN: Mets Blog

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Walker Lockett vs. Tyler Chatwood

Jason Vargas vs. Yu Darvish

Zack Wheeler vs. Jose Quintana

Jacob deGrom vs. Cole Hamels

PROBABLE METS LINEUP

Jeff McNeil – LF

Pete Alonso – 1B

Robinson Cano – 2B

Michael Conforto – RF

Wilson Ramos – C

Todd Frazier – 3B

Amed Rosario – SS

Juan Lagares – CF

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

 

As the Cubs return to regularly schedules National League action, they’ll be greeted by the visit of the ship that always seems to be facing the wrong way, the New York Mets. What is it about teams in this shade of blue and orange? There’s a lot of similarities between the Mets and Edmonton Oilers, from the greatness in the 80s to the seemingly unable to get out of their own way methods of the past decade to wasting the prime of generational talents like deGrom and now possibly Pete Alonso. It was ever thus with the Mets.

Alonso is the story on the offensive side for the Metropolitans. He’s third in the NL in homers with 24, seventh in slugging, and has propped up a lineup that has had to drag along too many guys, including Robinson Cano who was supposed to be the dragger and not the dragee. Other Mets system products like Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have done most of the rest of the heavy lifting. The offense took something of a hit when Brandon Nimmo‘s neck was filled with bugs and Yeonis Cespedes’s feet were the recipient of a witch’s curse (though Cespedes has never been that good), which forced Juan Legares into the lineup every day pretty much. Todd Frazier has been just about average, as has Wilson Ramos. It’s a line up that just screams, “fine.” There are some clear holes.

The rotation is about what you’d expect, though it’s had what are no its usual injury problems, as every member of it has missed a start or two and had to have some weird microscopes or resonance tests. It’s very Mets. deGrom, Thor, and Wheeler have also suffered from what is still a subpar Mets defense, as they’re carrying far lower FIPs than ERAs. The Cubs will only have to see two of them this weekend in Wheeler and deGrom, whose matchup with Hamels on Sunday is going to be the main event of this series. That’s not to discount Vargas who has been able to dance through the rain drops this year with some heavy fly ball ways and some righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery. Walker Lockett, which sounds like a name out of Deadwood, will make his Mets debut tonight instead of Thor. He’s a control/grounder type who made a brief cameo for the Padres last year.

The Mets pen has been the normal adventure is always seems to be. Prized winter acquisition Edwin Diaz has not turned out the lights as he had before, though mostly effective. Robert Gsellman is already about to die of exhaustion. Seth Lugo has been another stalwart, but after that the Mets have trotted out 17 other clowns to try and get outs and it’s been…well, let’s say abstract. Jeurys Familia, scumbag that he is, responded to losing his closer role by being awful and then hurt, and the Mets haven’t found any other solutions besides the first three mentioned.

And as always, the Mets are a circus off the field, between how they’ve ground their pitchers with obvious injuries to the bullpen to not getting a game out of Jared Lowrie with an injury they can’t seem to diagnose, to today where they’ve fired their pitching and bullpen coach. You can always count on them to be the Mets.

For the Cubs, they’ll fill in for Kyle Hendricks tonight by letting Tyler Chatwood start and then having their only pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay follow up. It’s a first look at an actual, breathing promise on the mound for the Cubs, who have yet to produce one since…arguably Hendricks? Before that it’s probably Andrew Cashner? Let’s not think about it.

As for the rest, they’ll hope Contreras’s big night is the sign of another binge, as the Cubs could use it. They will miss Thor and Matz, which is something of a boon, but they’ll not want to have to get past deGrom to win this series if at all possible, as he’s coming off his best start of the season. Then again, they made quick work of Lucas Giolito, so who fucking knows?

The Braves will be a stiff test after this. Best to treat the Mets like the Mets.

 

Baseball

Mets Spotlight: Has Michael Conforto Finally Survived The Mets?

By Sam Fels 1228 0

It seems a long while ago that Michael Conforto was bursting on the scene in 2015. While at the time the Mets had already rolled out Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz in their rotation, Conforto was the first shot in a homegrown lineup to match the rotation. Conforto lit up the National League for the last two months of the season, with a .509 slugging, 133 wRC+, and a .359 wOBA and was along for the ride to the World Series that year. After trading for Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets looked to have their outfield set for a bit, at least in the corners.

But never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets.

Conforto struggled in his first full go-around in the majors, as players tend to do. But mostly it was due to some rotten luck, and Conforto was still was getting on base through walks, hitting the ball pretty damn hard, he just couldn’t get anything to fall. It earned him a brief demotion back to Triple-A, which opened up space for the Mets to acquire…Jay Bruce? Yep, that’s right. The Mets ended that season with an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Cespedes in center (where his graham cracker ligaments were always going to do really well), and Bruce in right, making an excellent impression of the old people and their walkers doing their laps around the mall. Needless to say the looks on the Mets pitchers’ faces as line drives and fly balls kept falling into open spaces while that trio wheezed and gagged over to them would have been Websters-worthy of “bemused.”

Again, never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets, because they re-signed Bruce and then tried to cram Conforto in center, where he had never really played. And trying to cover for Bruce and Cespedes, when he wasn’t disintegrating, or whatever Granderson had left, wasn’t exactly the place to learn the position. Conforto did hit the shit out of the baseball though, with a 147 wRC+ as he was shuffled around and to the bench.

The Mets seemingly got the message last year, though Cespedes showing up in the morgue might have helped with that. After brief flirtations with Austin Jackson and Jose Bautista, the proverbial poking dead bodies with a stick, the Mets allowed Conforto to play left every day and Brandon Nimmo to play center.

They’ve moved Conforto over to right this season, and he’s responding with one of his best offensive season. His walk-rate is a career-high, and his slugging and other numbers are around his ’16 level. Conforto’s line-drive heavy ways are back from a year hiatus as well.

The difference appears to be Conforto’s production on slower pitches. He’s always been a “Can Pull A Bullet” guy, but struggled with change-ups and curves. This year he’s hitting those at a .250 and .267 clips, which are way above his career norms. That helps buttress his usual fireworks on the hard stuff (.289 and .579 slugging).

Even better for Conforto is he no longer has to carry this lineup after everyone gets hurt. Pete Alonso is odds on to win the NL Rookie Of The Year with his homer-a-day policy. That doesn’t mean the Mets haven’t totally been the Mets, as their trade for Robinson Cano is looking like another piece of Queens genius as Cano has caught Cespedes ligaments and health and hasn’t been any good when he has been around. And thanks to that lineup and some injuries in the rotation the Mets haven’t been able to vault themselves into the NL East discussion, which the Braves look like they might turn moot soon anyway.

Still, at least Conforto didn’t get completely buried by Mets-iness. It’s killed many before him.