Hockey

A few notes to clear out before free agency officially begins, and keep in mind this post could be wiped moot in a matter of hours or even minutes.

-As I said last night, the Andrew Shaw trade could very well work out. You kind of know what you’re getting with Shaw, and unless he’s put on the shelf with a concussion by a stiff breeze (truly possible) it’s certainly going to help. It won’t be a directional change or a pivot, but he’ll contribute. But it’s yet another sign of just how much the Hawks pro scouting sucks, and yet there’s never been any impetus for change there.

Quick, name the last player the Hawks acquired out of an entry-level deal that was any good. That was a win. Strome doesn’t count because he was in his entry-level deal and the info on him was still mostly from the amateur scouting. I’ll give you Connor Murphy, even though everyone else hates him and he honestly might not still be as good as the player he was traded for. Richard Panik? Artem Anisimov for one season between two all-stars? And he was worse than the player they traded for him. And then they went and got that player back for a player much better than he is who just got $12M from the Rangers.

You have to go all the way back to Antoine Vermette, and before that the list isn’t very cheerful until you get back to Johnny Oduya (the first time). And you know the list of players that haven’t worked out at all. Look, if Rob Scuderi and Brandon Manning are on your list at all, your list sucks and I don’t care what else is on it.

Stan Bowman keeps making these moves and they keep sucking and yet nothing ever seems to change. Just you wait until you get a look at Olli Maatta. The Hawks seems to gain cover from fans and media for bringing back old names and cashing in on memories, and by the time everyone realizes these players suck now they’re on to the next one or the season’s gone anyway.

-Speaking of frugality, which is a big reason people seem to like the Shaw move, the Hawks are right in sitting out this market for the most part…if they indeed do. There aren’t really foundational players to be found unless you want to offer sheet Marner or Aho, and the Hawks won’t because they think they have to keep that from happening to DeBrincat. Fair enough, we’ll see. $9M for Lee is a function of him being one of the very few pieces out there and cashing in on desperation, and good for him, but you don’t want to be paying that. Three years for Pavelski is in the same range. It’s just not a very good class, and you can’t force it to be by paying more for it.

But if you’re truly trying to be frugal, why acquire Shaw for $4M instead of just keeping Kahun around who is basically going to give you the same thing for at least $2.5M less for the next few years? With a lot less dumbass offensive zone penalties and better health? More speed and durability? Younger? Am I supposed to believe Annette Frontpresence on the SECOND power play unit is that important?

The Hawks will say they got Maatta out of it, but he’s terrible and also seems to have crowded Henri Jokiharju out of the lineup completely. Which is either scandalous or they’ve decided Jokiharju sucks now which is also scandalous. So yeah, ok, Shaw isn’t that expensive but there was an even better money-saving way to go about it. This is middle path shit and the Hawks want pats on the back for like, spelling their name right on the SAT. It’s not imaginary or creative.

-When all is said and done today or this week, the Hawks still have not informed me how they plan on getting the puck to their forwards. Maatta can’t do it. de Haan can’t do it. Seabrook can’t do it. Keith can like do it maybe once per game. Gustafsson can’t because he’s too slow. It’s not Murphy’s game. How? You say you have scoring but what does that matter if the forwards have to break out themselves?

The Hawks have literally no transition game right now. None. Jokiharju is supposedly an answer to that, and they don’t even want him on the roster to begin the season. Boqvist is supposed to be that, but he’s one guy, a year away most likely at best, and also a smurf.

Again, there doesn’t seem to be a plan here, or any sense of how the game is played now. But hey, partial season ticket plans available!

Baseball

BOX SCORES:

Game One: White Sox 6 – Twins 4

Game Two: White Sox 3 – Twins 10

Game Three: White Sox 4 – Twins 3

 

 

Full disclosure:  The picture above is of my friend Chris, with whom I have a running bet.  The bet is every time the Hawks play the Wild, or the Sox play the Twins each game is worth one beer.  We keep a running tally (well he does, and I question his accounting methods) and with how terrible the Sox and Hawks have been it’s become quite costly.  So for the Sox to take 2 of 3 from a scorching hot Twins team, well, that’s better than gold.  That’s beer.  Anyways, the Sox did indeed take 2 of 3 from the Twins.  I said in the preview that I would consider winning one of three a victory, so I guess taking the series is…ultimate victory?  I dunno.  Either way, the team and the fans should be very pleased after today’s rain delayed game.  I assumed (almost correctly) that after Giolito was forced out of the game due to the lengthy rain delay that the bullpen would implode and the Sox would lose the rubber match.  Evan Marshall tried with a little help from Leury Garcia (who had a bad case of the yips today), but Bummer and Colome were able to seal the deal.  To the bullets!

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

 

-Thankfully Moncada only missed one game after being drilled on his knee by Chris Sale last series, so that bullet got dodged as it were.  Looks like Tim Anderson is gonna be out 4 to 6 weeks thanks to a shitty Fenway infield and a high ankle sprain.  Losing him not only hurts the fun quotient of the team, but forces Leury Garcia into SS duty, which is quite the ask for someone who clearly has either a bum hamstring or a quad.  Both his errors today were due to his footwork and being out of position.  Hopefully the All Star break gives him the recuperative time he needs, as the Sox are going to need him down the stretch to keep the infield from becoming a clown parade

-Despite dropping off Yonder Alonso at the drive-thru at Goodwill, Zack Collins isn’t getting consistent playing time.  I don’t know what the idea was by bringing him up, but I can’t believe it was to watch Palka pulverize the infield dirt with ground ball after ground ball.  If you’re gonna have him up here, fucking PLAY HIM.  It can’t get any simpler than that.

-In other prospect news, it’s time to REJOICE, because Cease has risen from AAA to take the start against the Tigers Wednesday!  Good seats still available!  Seriously though, I am very excited to see what he can do against a semi-major league roster this week.  I fully expect him to get sent back down after the start for the All Star break, which is fine.  I just wanna watch that curveball make Nick Castellanos poop himself a little.

-Hoss Detwiler is better than Jose Berrios.  Just kidding.  It was nice to see the Sox be able to get to Berrios for a change, as in the past he’s had little trouble mowing them down one after the other.  Detwiler himself was…fine.  He was actually better than Nova the following day (not a super high bar to clear, but here we are), and I’d say he’s earned himself another turn in the rotation.  Just don’t forget Despaigne pitched well in his first start too.

– 2/3rds of Eloy’s hits this series went yard, which is exciting.  What is NOT exciting is that he got 3 hits, and is still parked below a .250 average.  I’m not being impatient, mind you, I just want him to bat .310 and hit another 25 dingers by year’s end.  No big deal.

-Now that Yonder Alonso is gone, I need someone else to shit on in each recap.  As nobody has been as terrible as him, I’m going with Ricky Renteria.  His lineups still suck, and his management of the bullpen (albeit slowly improving from the start of the year) is still terrible.  I hate being that “fire the coach” guy, but the evidence in support is starting to rack up, especially with how he’s handling injured players.

-Jon Jay has been a pleasant surprise so far, I’m just not expecting it to last.  The OF situation is still a dumpster fire, though Eloy had a nice sliding catch Saturday, and he even managed to not get hurt doing it.  Ryan Cordell is boring and bad.

-Next up is the Tigers of Detroilet, with the Sox now 3 games back of .500.  Sure would be nice to head into the All Star break with a winning record.  If that’s gonna be a thing, then 3 of 4 against the Tigers is the bare minimum, because you know the damn Cubs aren’t going to cough up 2 games to them.  Onward!

Everything Else

Game 1 Box Score: Reds 6, Cubs 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Reds 0

Game 3 Box Score: Reds 8, Cubs 6

The Cubs will have to reconcile losing another road series, not winning their sixth straight series, and their first losing month in over two years. I would sit here and lament they hits they didn’t get, the pitches they didn’t make, and the mistakes they made. Still, there’s little you can do when your best pitcher has to leave after an inning and is probably out six weeks now. Mike Montgomery has apparently lost all feelings in his limbs, and the Cubs were never going to recover. So they split the other two.

Still, Schwarber’s clank in the first is basically the difference today, but at least it’s just a physical mistake instead of the mental ones the Cubs have specialized in of late. Still, they had their shots in the 7th and 8th and couldn’t quite get over the line. And of course, there isn’t any fire the pen can’t pour kerosine on, especially when they’re convinced Kyle Ryan can do anything. Which he can’t, even if he fools you with a couple good outings.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-This one especially stings today because it felt avoidable. Eugenio Suarez was nowhere on Quintana curveballs yesterday, and Lester has beaten him with a couple to get to two strikes in the first today. So why was he going to a fastball on 3-2 that got turned into putty on its way to the river? That feels like a mistake that didn’t have to happen. Maybe Contreras and Lester thought he was sitting on the curve, but it’s been a couple days since he proved that mattered.

-At least Heyward is hitting?

-16 change-ups from Quintana yesterday, the most he’s thrown in a start all season. A little more drop, though not as much fade as earlier in the year. But he threw it, showed he had it, and he got six shutout innings. Sure, he had some luck as there was very solid contact early in the game, but these two things are still connected.

-I don’t know what’s happened to Monty. His sinker isn’t as effective and he’s getting labeled. The only pitch he doesn’t have an obscene slugging against is his curve, and he can’t base his approach on that. It may just be a lost cause this season.

-Stop trying to make Kyle Ryan happen.

-They actually did get a decent outing from Brach on Friday, and maybe, maybe if he can build on that he can be part of the pen that keeps leads down instead of protecting one. That’s been the Cubs problem, not blowing leads but keeping teams close for the offense to catch up.

-The designating CarGo would seem to be an endorsement of Almora, who had four hits on the weekend. Or Bote, but he only got one start. Perhaps it’s a precursor for something else. If Almora is going to make his last stand, it probably has to be now.

Onwards…

Everything Else

I know what you’re thinking, and you’re not exactly wrong. You’re just not totally right, either. At least there’s a good chance you’re not entirely right.

Yes, the Hawks pro scouting sucks. And this is why they keep going back to the well of, “Well, he was good here before!” And it’s never worked. Versteeg was terrible. Oduya was past it. Sharp was too. Campbell was barely ok in his one year return. Andrew Ladd did nothing. But don’t think the Hawks don’t like the idea of the name recognition in their still somewhat nascent and parochial fanbase.

So I can’t tell you with any sort of confidence that the Hawks have done the hockey background on their trade or Andrew Shaw this afternoon. If it got beyond, “He was good here before let’s try again!” it would be an upset. Did the Hawks give up nothing? Well, a 2nd rounder isn’t nothing, and it’s one of the second round picks they got back for Shaw in the first place. Adding a third the next year seem a little steep, but hardly a crime.

And Shaw isn’t past it as the others were. He put up 19 goals in just 63 games last season, and 47 points. He’s not slow, though he’s not as quick as he used to be. He’s still a decent forechecker, and those hands around the net haven’t gone anywhere.

But there are concerns. One Shaw hasn’t been able to stay in one piece since leaving. After being a symbol of durability during his stay here, Shaw has missed 14, 31, and 19 games the past three seasons. He’s a couple surgeries in, which isn’t going to help the mobility much.

Secondly, if the Hawks think this is going to solve their top-six hole, they’re mistaken. It’s not what Shaw is, it’s never what Shaw was. He’s a third-line player who gives you scoring from beneath. Playing him with Toews or Strome isn’t going to do much, because he’s not the puck-winner he used to be (though the metrics are still strong). Still, Shaw spent most of last season with Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin, so he can still play with skill. He won’t kill you up there, the disappointment is you could have done better.

His contract isn’t a total millstone, though it is somewhat curious that the Hawks got it right the first time with Shaw, in that he was a nice player to have but the exact type of player you cash in on when they become expensive and replace from within, and now the Hawks have gone out and got him again when he is expensive and older. Their bet with Ryan Hartman didn’t work, or they said it didn’t, and now there hasn’t been anyone else. If only John Hayden was the player every writer and broadcaster seems to think he is but isn’t. $3.9M for three years is what Shaw costs, which takes him to 30.

This is probably a sign that the Hawks don’t plan to do much tomorrow, as the prices have gotten too rich for their blood. Jay Zawaski (friend of the program) has said as much. That’s not total idiocy, as $8M for Anders Lee or slightly less for Joe Pavelski could be problematic. This is also a huge bet on Alex DeBrincat and especially Dylan Strome, who have been the center of the Hawks’ comments and thoughts all summer. Their extensions clearly have them terrified, and the Hawks are going to look pretty damn stupid if Strome backs up the same way that Schmaltz did in his free agent year that got him punted to the desert.

Again, in a purely hockey sense, the move works. What doesn’t work is that no one is going to believe they’ve done their due diligence on this, merely once against attempting to get the band back together. And even if this one works, and it easily could, it leaves you no faith that this front office has the slightest clue on how to get this team from Point A to Point B.

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 44-37   Reds 36-42

GAMETIMES: Friday 6:10, Saturday 3:10, Sunday 12:10

TV: WGN Friday, ABC Saturday, NBCSN Sunday

SONS OF LARKIN: Blog Red Machine

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Cole Hamels vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

Jon Lester vs. Anthony DeSclafani

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Yasiel Puig – RF

Jose Iglesias – SS

Scooter Gennett – 2B

Phillip Irvin – LF

Curt Casali – C

 

The Cubs begin the second-half of the season in the bouncy-castle that is The Great American Ballpark. Get ready for Darth Eugenio for the weekend. There’s no avoiding it.

The Reds have been bipolar of late. They swept the Astros on the road (an admittedly short-staffed ‘Stros but still), and then took the first two from the Brewers in Milwaukee. But then they lost the last two, and then were clocked by the Angels at home for two games, scoring one run in each. All in all it’s been a pretty disappointing June for the Redlegs, as they’ve gone 9-12 after a 15-13 May. Their metrics still suggest they should be far above where they are, but it’s getting a bit late to keep claiming that. Still, a good showing against the Northside Nine this weekend would give June something of a hint of gloss.

In the month, the offense for the Reds has dried up. Those of you waiting on the Derek Dietrich bubble to burst can rejoice, as he managed a 66 wRC+ in June with a glittering .277 wOBA. Only Votto and Puig have pulled their weight the last three weeks, with part-time dash from Jesse Winker. The Reds are in fact last in runs in June, but that’s never stopped them from clubbing the Cubs over the head at that spaceport of a park.

The rotation is moving the wrong direction as well. Anthony DeSclafani has been great in the month, with a 2.40 FIP. Tanner Roark has been on the upside of his usual performance, but Sonny Gray can’t find the plate again and Luis Castillo has been so wayward he’s being picked up by air traffic control. The only thing keeping Castillo’s ERA from blowing up is he still strikes out a ton of batters and some Righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery of .208. Gray has not been so lucky, which is why his ERA is over 5.00. The Cubs will see them both, and patience is the order of the day when they do.

Like it’s been with the Reds all season, you should probably do the work against the starters because they do have a very good pen. David Hernandez, Michael Lorenzen and his jersey that’s holding on for dear life, Amir Garrett, and Jared Hughes have all been lights-out over the past couple weeks, so the Cubs recent habit of falling behind by multiple runs is not the way to go about this weekend at all. Given the state of the Reds offense right now, that isn’t a huge ask from the Cubs rotation. But again, dumb things tend to happen at this park, and we don’t mean the food.

It’s now the second half, and while the Cubs usually wait until after the break to really get going, there’s no reason to not to start now. Both the Reds and Pirates are moving backwards, and by the time they get to the Southside to close it out the Sox might not even be able to field a team. They sort of muddled through the first half. And maybe that’s what they are. Still, July’s schedule is S-A-W-F-T, and if they’re ever going to kick to another gear and open up some ground, it’s right now.

Enough of this shit. Time to make the chimi-fucking-changas.

Baseball

It can seem strange to complain at this halfway mark, because the Cubs do sit on top of what has turned out to be baseball’s most competitive division. It’s where you want to be. And the addition of Craig Kimbrel for just money means that the Cubs limited assets can be used for just one more arm in the pen or maybe a bat to play second or right or center. And maybe Ben Zobrist returns to even that out a little. There is greater potential for the Cubs to be much better in the second half than much worse, let’s say.

But there are some things lingering from the aftermath of last season I can’t quite get past. And I’m one of the few who doesn’t think last season was the utter disaster a lot of others do. It’s best not to overreact to two losses, or that you couldn’t match an utter historic run by the Brewers when you were playing for 45 straight days. The Cubs were one game short of playing .600 baseball last year, which in any other circumstance you would never even look at twice.

We’ve been over the front office’s claims of “production over promise,” and they get a half-excuse because of ownership tying one hand behind their backs financially. Still, Almora and Russell haven’t ever really proven to be every day major leaguers, and that continues. Russell in all senses, of course. Carlos Gonzalez is dead, and Daniel Descalso is rotting. But let’s leave that aside for a moment.

The other major theme of the offseason was that the players themselves had told the front office that things had become too loose. They wanted more batting practice, they wanted Maddon to be a little more hands-on, and they felt that the team wasn’t always tuned in or being tuned in. They wanted more accountability. And fair enough. Less focus on the petting zoos and magicians, and more on improving. All makes sense.

Which makes me curious why the Cubs still play so many loose games. We saw it in this past Braves series. The Friday game against the Mets was loose. We can go back through the rest of the schedule, but you know they’re there. Mental errors, bad ABs at crucial times, abstract fielding at times (though the Cubs remain a very good defensive team), unconscionable decisions on the basepaths (and Captain Rizzo seems to be a main culprit there). Their approach at the plate overall wavering from very good in April to very bad at spots.

We’ve heard Maddon lament to the press that his players have gone away from the patient, all-fields plan of attack at the plate that had them lighting everyone up during that 22-7 stretch. You’ve seen Baez get in a pull-everything rut. Same with Heyward. Same with Rizzo. We can go on. I guess I would believe Maddon would say this to the press before his own players, but I highly doubt he would actually do that.

So if the players thought they were too loose or unfocused at times last season, and the front office together with them put in practices and ploys to address that, and they’re still playing loose games too often, where do we put the blame? You can’t put it on Maddon again when you made the changes from what you’d thought he’d let go last year. Is there a complacency amongst the core of this group? Or is it just that Kris Bryant has been off–possibly due to a concussion thanks to Jason Heyward‘s shoulder–and hasn’t matched the MVP level of May? Because that does make a huge difference.

Once again, the Cubs marks with men-on-base seems to be a major bugaboo. Overall, only the Giants have been worse in that spot as far as average in the NL. What’s quirky is that the Cubs are middle of the pack in on-base percentage with runners in scoring position, which means they take their walks in those spots. But the inclination is that those who do get on base regularly are doing so for those who simply can’t hit–your Russells, CarGos, Almoras, Descalsos.

Turns out that’s only partially true. Baez and Contreras have been very good with runners in scoring position. Schwarber and Bryant have been really bad. Rizzo has been better than average. At the end of the day, I wouldn’t expect that to continue with Bryant. It’s been a problem for Schwarber his whole career, something batting him first mitigates a touch. Again, much like last year, Bryant’s struggles are a bigger issue than people are putting focus on.

Beyond that, the rotation has been just about as iffy as ZIPS said it might be. There have been brilliant stretches from each pitcher–no really, there have–and there’s been a rut for each (some bigger than others). This might be what Cole Hamels is, given how good he was upon arrival last year. Lester is not going to be LESTER anymore, but he seems to be able to gut his way through. If Hendricks is healthy, there’s no reason you can’t expect brilliance. So the other two are the variables. Quintana needs to rediscover his change, or he might have to Rich Hill this and just throw his curve way more. But it’s not outlandish. Darvish just needs to simplify. The Cubs aren’t far from having the dominating rotation they flashed earlier. They also aren’t far from having a dysfunctional one.

The pen, as anyone who has watched baseball for more than 10 minutes, has evened out a bit because it’s a bullpen. The Cubs have Kimbrel, Kintzler, and Strop at the end, and all have proven track records even if age will keep them all from being automatic every outing. Cishek may be on empty, and we can never know with Edwards. Maples may have figured it out in Iowa, though we’ve heard that before. They probably need one more from the outside, but then again any of those three coming good and a move as a multi-inning weapon for Alzolay and you’re pretty much solved? Doesn’t seem like a huge ask, does it?

But to me, the Cubs have to lock in more. They can’t give away games simply by not being all there as they’ve done a little too often this season. They don’t have the Dodgers margins. And if they can’t, I know Maddon will pay the price. But you’ll have to convince me he was the one responsible after he was reined in last year.

Everything Else

We’ll wrap up our free agent wishlist, and wait for the Hawks to sign players we never considered, with the biggest fish out there, unrestricted or restricted. And let’s cut the heart out of the Leafs while we’re at it. 

Mitch Marner

Height: 6-0 (not really)  Weight: 175 lb

Age: 22   Shoots: Right

2018-2019

82 games – 26 G – 68 A – 94 P – 22 PIM

52.0 CF% (+0.38 Relative)  52.8 x GF% (+1.63 Relative) 51.6 ZSR

Why The Hawks Should Sign Him

Because he’s really good. Because he might actually be a generational player. Because 22-year-olds who just racked up 94 points are generally nowhere near the market, and we can thank the Toronto media and fans for this bit of intrigue. Because he’s another torch-bearer when Toews and Kane can’t do it anymore. Because it’s a statement of intent. Because it makes it clear the last two seasons were simply unacceptable. Because it shows imagination and hutzpah. Because the Hawks might actually have to sell some tickets instead of papering their sellout streak anyway possible. Because it would certainly placate the veterans you still want to be a part of things. Because it would be exciting and suddenly your team might just be Showtime of the Central Division. I really don’t even have to sell this.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Well, that’s just as obvious, isn’t it? He ties up the cap something fierce. He doesn’t help the defense other than scoring more goals. There are questions about his appetite for getting involved in the middle of the ice when things matter most, though that’s probably drummed up by the Toronto media again to help drive his price down. He’s a touch small, but that shouldn’t be a concern at all. He doesn’t help the kill much, though he did kill penalties for the first time this season, and is someone whose speed and threat could be a real weapon on the kill. Point-men would be a little more careful with the puck knowing any slip is sending Marner the other way.

Verdict

Ok, let’s first figure out how it’s possible, because it is. Let’s just say right now it takes a seven-year, $77M offer. It might even be more, but let’s go with the $11M figure for now. The Hawks have just over that in space, so signing Marner to that leaves no room for Perlini and Kampf. Well, actually it does, because you can be 10% over until opening night.

So for the 185th time, get Anisimov off this roster. You just drafted his replacement anyway, and said replacement should probably be playing, and if Dach really isn’t up for it this season guess what? Marner can play center too. It’s not ideal, but you can do it. So there’s $2-4M in space depending on what you have to take back to get Arty’s beleaguered ass out of town. That probably gets you through this season, though your defense is still a goddamn mess. But we’ve pretty much already acquiesced to that being the case.

BUT WHAT ABOUT STROME AND TOP CAT HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY THEM?! That’s been the squeal from the front office itself for about six months now. First, pump the brakes on Strome for a hot minute. This time last year the Hawks were telling everyone that they had to reserve space to throw $6-7M a year at Nick Schmaltz. He’s on a trainer’s table in Glendale now. Strome gave you a good 50 games. So did Schmaltz. Let’s just say he’s got more to prove.

Still, you’ll obviously need more than $6M in space or so that moving Arty along will give you, plus the minuscule bump the cap will get. It’s the season after that when the new US TV deal will kick in and the cap will get a noticeable bump, so we’ve got some work to do.

Let’s attack another way. The Hawks currently have $23M open for next year. $11M to Marner brings that down to $12M, but a punting of Arty makes it somewhere between $14-$16. If everything goes well this year, DeBrincat and Strome eat that up, and you also haven’t re-signed Crawford yet. But, one or two of Murphy, de Haan, or Maatta probably have to go because they all do the same thing and by 2020 Adam Boqvist and Ian Mitchell had better be in the lineup or everyone’s fired. You’re probably selling Brandon Saad too unless he does something pretty goofy this season. After that the US TV deal kicks in and you have more room and fucking figure it out.

As for the draft picks? Who gives a shit? You’re not going to have a top three pick again, and you supposedly just got your #1 center of the future. You clearly think you have enough young d-men to make up for the fact that none of them are a true #1, but it may be that you don’t need that anymore. You can find players at #18 or #25 or wherever the Hawks plan on finishing, but you can find players anywhere too. Maybe you convince the Leafs to send one of the #1s back to you for Gustafsson or something. Or you get another #1 for him at the deadline when he’s goofing another 60 points off the power play but Jokiharju and Boqvist are ready to go and hey maybe Denver is done early and Mitchell is too. Whatever, how long do you want to be in the wilderness?

Basically, it doesn’t make any sense but it can be figured out. Fortune favors the brave. Let’s get nuts.

Baseball

                 VS

Records: Twins 52-38   White Sox 37-41

Gametimes: Friday – 7:10/Saturday – 3:10/Sunday – 1:10

TV: Friday/Saturday NBCSN – Sunday WGN

Uff Da: Puckett’s Pond

Pitching Matchups:

Jose Berrios vs. TBD

Michael Pineda vs. Chevy Nova

Kyle Gibson vs. Lucas Giolito

PROBABLE TWINS LINEUP

  1. Max Kepler – CF
  2. Jorge Polanco – SS
  3. Nelson Cruz – DH
  4. Mitch Garver – C
  5. Luis Arraez – LF
  6. Eddie Rosario – RF
  7. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
  8. CJ Cron – 1B
  9. Miguel Sano – 3B

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

  1. Leury Garcia – SS
  2. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann (C/DH)
  5. Eloy Jimenez – LF
  6. Jon Jay – RF
  7. Zack Collins (C/DH)
  8. Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
  9. Ryan Cordell (CF)

 

So the White Sox managed to avoid Total Disaster for at least a few days, but now it looms large again in their windshield with the arrival of the world destroying monster that is the…Minnesota Twins?  Yeah, no kidding, I don’t get it either.  What a difference a year makes.  This time last season the Twins were moping along in the middle of the AL Central, nothing really special.  Both their young breakout stars in Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton had soul crushingly bad regression years, so bad that they were both sent down to AAA.  One of the two (Buxton) turned his shit around and set the world on fire down there, only to be roundly ignored by Twins management in what can only be described as service time manipulation.  Miguel Sano continued playing shitty, then ended up lacerating his foot somehow, and spent the entire offseason recovering from surgery.  The difference between the two has continued, as Buxton has been mashing the ball, and Sano (having missed all of spring training recovering) has been striking out in approximately half his at bats.  Normally the Twins probably would’ve sent Sano back down, but due to a rash of injuries he’s been forced to work through his issues at the big league level.

Elsewhere on the infield, Jorge Polanco is raking at a clip that earned him a spot on the AL all star team next month.  He’s hitting a cool .321 with an over 900 OPS.  I don’t know how sustainable this is, as his career OPS is somewhere around the range of  .780, and his BABIP sits at .350, which hints at some regression coming.  That being said, he’s currently the most dangerous hitter in the Twins lineup along with Max Kepler, who’s corrected most of his K issues from last year, while retaining his power levels.

The Twins pitching staff is fronted by ace Jose Berrios, their best pitching prospect since Johan Santana rolled his way through the AL central.  He’s backed up by a career year from Jake Odorizzi (who the Sox miss this turn) who has somehow not let an insanely high fly ball rate turn into a bunch of gopher balls.  Reclamation project Michael Pineda continues his return from maladies that included tommy john and knee surgeries.  When healthy during his tenure with the Yankees he struck people out at a very high rate, but was susceptible to the long ball.  That continues this season, where his HR per 9 stands at an unsightly 1.67.  Next closest on the rotation is Kyle Gibson with a 1.25.

For the Sox, the main storyline right now is the injuries to Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada.  Timmy figures to be out at least a month with a high ankle sprain, while Moncada is dealing with a contusion to his knee.  Yoan figures to be day-to-day and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts tonight.  If he can’t go, it would probably mean Jose Rondon taking reps at 3rd.  Zack Collins figures to get more playing time now that Yonder Alonso has been DFA-ed to the Big AAA In The Sky.  Who is starting on the mound for the Sox tonight is yet to be determined, but with no moves as of yet, it figures to be a bullpen game.  If Carson Fulmer can repeat the efficiency that he showed against the Red Sox the other day, perhaps letting him go 3 to 4 innings might help an overtaxed bullpen.  Ivan Nova goes Saturday, with Giolito taking the bump Sunday.  They’ll all have their work cut out for them, as the Twins lead the AL in most offensive categories and score runs at an alarming rate.  Anything but a sweep here will probably feel like a win, so Lets Go Sox!

 

 

Baseball

So here we are just about the halfway point of this halfway season in what feels like the 8th season of the White Sox rebuild.  There’s quite a bit to unpack , but what does it all really mean?  I feel like there’s been measurable progress this season for the first time ever with the rebuild.  Not that there wasn’t progress with the team before, but it was all measured by what trades and prospects that Rick Hahn was able to hoard either in the offseason or at the trade deadline.  Now this season we are starting to see some of the core of the rebuild coalesce and start to cut their teeth on some series wins.  So let’s dig in and see what’s what, shall we?

The Sox currently sit in 3rd place in the AL Central with a 37-41 record, a whopping 14 games behind this weekend’s opponent, the dirty Twins.  They’re also 6.5 games out of the wild card conversation, though just a few weeks ago they had that number down to 2.  They’re 4th from the bottom in the AL in runs scored with a -63 run differential, and third from the bottom with a team 5.03 ERA.  On the surface, this looks pretty terrible and would make me want to not watch another Sox game for the rest of the season let alone write about them.  Yet the games have been pretty fun thus far, and they only sit at 4 games below .500.  What does it all mean?

I think it’s safe to say that based on the squad that took the field at the beginning of April that this White Sox team has performed slightly above expectations.  ZIPS projections had the team at 71 wins for the entire season, a .444 win percentage.  The Sox current win percentage sits at .474, which projects out to a 77-85 season.  Compared to last season’s 62 wins that’s a drastic improvement.    The Sox have made this step forward even while dealing with Carlos Rodon’s exploding joke elbow, or in spite of the fact that they find their 5th starters for the rotation under the Green Line L tracks next to the Hockeenight home office.  The projections also included Jon Jay, who just this past week finally found his way into the Sox outfield.

We’ve seen solid progression from Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez.  Lucas Giolito has transformed into a legitimate top of the rotation candidate.  James McCann is going to be an All Star this season.  There’s a lot to be excited about, yet I can’t help but feel a little frustrated.  With all of the bad luck the Sox have endured, i feel like an 81+ win season was right there for the taking if the front office had any interest in doing so.  Instead we got the ridiculous song and dance with Manny Machado, which lead to nothing other than Yonder Alonso being set out by the trash yesterday.  If the Sox front office had any interest in putting a winning product out on the field this season Ivan Nova would be somewhere else, as would Jon Jay.  The Sox starting rotation would have an ERA under 6, and the OF would have a combined WAR of more than 3 (2.3 of which belongs to Eloy).  Dylan Cease wouldn’t continue to waste pitches down in AAA, working towards some invisible finish line that Rick Hahn has set for him.  Instead we are left to wonder where the Sox could’ve been at this point. It’s frustrating, but also worrisome at the same time, as the Sox will need to add outside talent to the core if they have deigns on competing next season and I don’t feel like Hahn knows how to add via free agency.  That’s further out, however.  Closer to now is the back half of the season.

Looking to the 2nd half of this season depends entirely on how long Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson are out.  If it’s a lengthy absence for either (or god forbid both), the 77 win season isn’t gonna happen.  The Sox -61 run differential is also begging for a market correction, as a team with offensive stats like that is coasting along on some luck.  In addition to that, there’s the question of whether or not the Sox sell off some pieces in the coming weeks.  Alex Colome, despite the blown save in the Red Sox series, would be a nice addition to any team looking to add for a stretch run, as would Aaron Bummer.  Wellington Castillo could be had for parts, and if there’s an offer for James McCann that blows Rick Hahn’s socks off I’d expect him to at least consider it.  Add all these parts up, and I feel like the ZIPS projection of 71 wins might be right on the money.  Dylan Cease coming up, or Zack Collins getting consistent playing time may alter those numbers slightly, but not much more than a win or two in either direction.  Adding 8 wins to the Sox total from last season is a solid improvement, and I’m in no way upset about it.

Just kinda disappointed.

Everything Else

According to all the latest gossip the Hawks think they’ve solved their blue-line issues with the Maata and de Haan signings…no really, they think that! This leaves us with forwards to noodle on as free agency approaches, and while we’re not actually convinced they’ll bring Zuccarello here, at this point, why not go through the thought exercise for shits and giggles? And you may be wondering what the pumpkin image could possibly have to do with him—well, in Italian “zuccarello” means “little pumpkin guy.” No shit, it does. See, you learn something new every day!

Physical Stats

Height: 5’8″ Weight: 185

Age: 31 Shot: Left

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

Team: Stars Position: LW

48 GP – 12 G – 28 A – 40 pts – 24 PIM

49.1 CF% (3.8 CF% Rel) – 52 xGF (5.6 xGF% Rel) – 48.9 oZS%

Why the Hawks Should Sign Him

Mats Zuccarello could be a legit top-six winger, and if the Hawks can get him off a division foe’s roster, so much the better. Last year was obviously a weird one for him—he was at nearly a point-per-game pace with the Rangers but just when he was traded to the Stars he had a rather freak injury against—who else—the Hawks, and didn’t return until the playoffs. But when he did, he led the Stars in points with 11 in 13 games.

All of this is to say that Zuccarello might come a bit cheaper thanks to the broken arm but he’s also a reliable playmaker. Put him with Toews and Sikura and he may help Dylan finally pop his goal cherry. If CCYP keeps Toews and Kane together, throw Zuccarello on the left side—it’d be a top-heavy situation and personally I want to see Kane with Top Cat and Dylan Strome, but the point is that Zuccarello could be a quality contributor on the top six. And they may be able to get him for under 6 mildo. He understandably wants a payday, and his playoff run will undoubtedly help, but with the Stars dithering and his time missed last year because of injury, the Hawks might just be able to finagle, say, 5.25 and get away with it.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Zuccarello is already north of 30 and will be looking for a big contract. Even if it’s a relative bargain, i.e., not above $6 million, if he wants five years or more that should be a deal-breaker for the Hawks. We have plenty of aging stars signed for long deals already, thank you.

And while he had a good playoff run and scored 37 points in 46 games with the Rangers last year, he’s never put up more than 61 (and that only once) and he averages about 15 goals a year. Erik Gustafsson had more than that last season, for christ’s sake. The last thing the Hawks need is to overpay yet another aging forward who just ends up in the flotsam of the bottom six.

Verdict

Mats Zuccarello would not do significant damage to the Hawks, provided they don’t sign him to some dumbass, 8-year, 6.5 mildo contract. On the cheap he would be a proven playmaker who could improve the scoring of those around him, play top minutes, and be on the power play. I’d certainly rather have Zuccarello on the second unit than Artem Anisimov. But again, overpaying a guy on the downswing is not what the Hawks need. It’d be risky but that’s never stopped them before.