Baseball

Game 1 Box Score: White Sox 7, Tigers 4

Game 2 Box Score: White Sox 5, Tigers 3

Game 3 Box Score: Tigers 10, White Sox 6

Game 4 Box Score: White Sox 8, Tigers 1

Of course the contingent of asshole White Sox fans on this blog would leave a Sox-Tigers recap for me. Because what the fuck do you learn about a team when they’re playing a softball team from a company that’s already been liquidated? There might not be one useful player in the everyday lineup for the Tigers, and only a couple on the pitching staff. This team is headed for an end of season that will scare children for years. I guess it’s better than where the Sox were last week, getting their dick kicked in by the Mets. But apparently everyone is getting their dick kicked in by the Mets now. That’s a thing we’re just letting happen as a society. Anyway, I’ll do my best.

-I guess you have to rejoice that Dylan Cease didn’t back up against this lineup, if that were even possible. And he only walked one in five innings, but he still needed 101 pitches to get through those five innings. Cease is still relying on trying to power through ABs and counts, which is not a long term strategy for success. It’s fine against the decommissioned county fair of the Tigers, but against actual teams he’s still going to have problems.

-Second of a double-header with these teams, where Hector Santiago and Dylan Covey pitched, and they throw in an hour rain delay. Who said the gods didn’t have a sense of humor?

-Have yourself a series, Tim Anderson. Nine hits in three games, as he didn’t play in the nightcap Tuesday. I guess if I was really picky I would point out that only one was for extra-bases, and Anderson has to hit a ton of fucking singles to be a productive hitter and even that might just make you Juan Pierre and you don’t want him to be Juan Pierre, but let’s leave that for another time.

-Ivan Nova keeps rolling, which means…nothing? I guess it’s nothing.

-Signs of life from James McCann? Seven hits in three games for him, and maybe returning to where he was was something of an inspiration. That gives him a .409 average in August after a .173 July.

-Still, striking out seven times in three innings against a returning Spencer Turnbull, really the only pitcher the Sox saw, is less than encouraging.

The important thing is that it’s over and we can move on with our lives. Let’s do that.

 

Baseball

At the trade deadline, there were only whispers amongst the Sox forest (the trees are lovely but unappreciated) about testing the market for Jose Abreu. Part of the problem was that pretty much everyone knew that the market wouldn’t be all that deep for a free agent-to-be who very well might only be a DH and not that many teams are looking for a 1st baseman anyway. Especially one that is on his second season of what might be a decline.

The thing is, all those reasons are ones that the White Sox might have to heavily think about letting Jose Abreu walk after the season. Though that won’t exactly be an easy sell to fans who are very furrow-browed about last offseason and this season. Still, the case for keeping Abreu seems more emotional than reasoned.

No question Abreu was about the only reason to watch the Sox during some lost seasons. The fact that he was the best player on a bad team for many years always endears a player to fans, as Abreu never really has played a game that mattered in the long run. No team Abreu has been on has finished above 4th, and the only reason this one will is because the Royals and Tigers have decided to have a pillow fight in a dumpster all year.

In addition, the theme the team itself keeps beating, and a lot of fans, is that he’s a great mentor/spirit guide for Yoan Moncada and soon-to-be Luis Robert. That’s not to be completely dismissed, as veteran leadership and shared experience can be valuable for young players. It doesn’t always work, but it can be a big boost.

Still, these aren’t very baseball-heavy reasons, and the Sox can’t ignore that Abreu has declined from a 134 wRC+ to a 114 to a 103 this year, along with an OBP that has dipped 20 points each of the last two years.

And this is the crux. The Sox have an on-base problem. It’s hard to gauge when exactly the Sox think they can make a run at a playoff spot or the Central itself. Rose-colored views say next season, but that would involve full recoveries from Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon and for both to have success in the majors we’ve never seen. It would also require a huge leap from Dylan Cease, which seems an ask at this point, as well as Reynaldo Lopez. Of course, a Gerrit Cole signing could help with a big portion of that, but let’s not go nuts.

And even with all that, it’s a bad Sox offense now and projecting out needs some help. You can count on Moncada to get on base at a decent clip. You’d like to think that Eloy Jimenez will greatly improve on his .297 OBP next year, but pinning on hope is what gets a team into trouble. James McCann is hardly a given when considering his last six weeks or two months. Is Tim Anderson going to keep running a .370 BABIP while not hitting the ball terrible hard? Robert will definitely help, but then again it was thought Eloy would walk right in and drill holes to the Earth’s core and that hasn’t happened yet. To put rookie production in ink is again, misguided. Beyond that…yeesh.

The Sox have an OBP-heavy guy in Zack Collins, who already looks like is being transitioned from catcher to 1b/DH…except the Sox have like four of those guys already. And they may need another spot between 1B and DH for one of them as well.

There aren’t a lot of upgrades in free agency. Anthony Rendon is a name you will hear, and he solves a good portion, except he would have to be moved to first (which he’s never played) or they’d have to find a new spot for Moncada again. Seeing as how this one went so well at third, it might be best to leave that one alone for now. J.D. Martinez, if he opts out, certainly would be big game hunting, but he’s DH only which means keeping Abreu at 1st full-time, which isn’t going to help anyone.

The big exam for the Sox is whether they think this is Abreu’s decline or something that can be arrested. The strikeout numbers going up certainly aren’t encouraging, but the contact-types haven’t dropped off a cliff. He’s been a touch unlucky this season, but nowhere near shaking-a-fist-at-the-gods unlucky. This will be his second straight sub-.800 OPS season, and can you really take that from either first or DH?

Yes, Moncada, Robert, and maybe one or two others might be ruffled if Abreu moves on, but they’re also not going anywhere. It’s a business, after all, and the Sox can at least position themselves to hint at a wildcard spot next year before their assault to the summit in the following years. Abreu will be 33 next year (“33”?), and as this might be his last chance at a big contract you wonder if he’ll be happy to settle for just a one- or two-year deal. Then again, given how the free agent market has been, he might have little choice.

It might just be that Abreu comes cheap enough and for short-term enough that it won’t cost the Sox much to keep him, and save the emotional fallout, even if he transitions into a platoon or rotational player in those two spots. But at some point the Sox have hard choices to make, and Abreu is one of them whether they like it or not.

Football

This is the time of the football year when you literally cannot believe any of the news that comes out of camp. This isn’t just a Bears situation; this is the norm league wide. The NFL’s tightening of media accessibility as well every coach now borrowing the personality of Bill Belichick has basically made training camp the ultimate rumor mill. You could be looking at tweets from two different beat reporters from the same team and they are telling a completely different story of the same player.

Operating off this general baseline, I am not overly concerned about the recent tales of Mitch Trubisky’s struggles thus far in camp. However, given Matt Nagy’s preference to play his starters as little as possible in preseason games, we will have absolutely no idea what to expect from QB1 on Thursday, September 5th Vs. the Green Bay Packers. Last year, Nagy played Trubisky a grand total of 40 plays in the preseason. Reading between the lines, this year figures to be no different. Which begs the question: does this line of thinking retard Mitch’s development?

Trubisky will be better, there is no question about that. But how much better will he be? As it did last year, his athleticism will cover up a lot of shortcomings. Having another year in Nagy’s system will undoubtedly be reason for improvement. And as I have mentioned before, an elite defense will often create a short field which in turn will limit the chances the former Tar Heel QB will have to take on 3rd and long situations. All signs are pointing in the right direction.

Or are they?

Accuracy has been an issue for Trubisky throughout his professional career. Last year, he finished 14th in the league in completion percentage at 66%. This was a 7% increase from his 2017 season. To take this one alarming step further, the Bears starter averaged 7.4 yards in adjusted yards gained per pass attempt – good for 20th best in the NFL in 2018.

There may be a time or two this season when the offense has to win a game on its own, but based on everything I saw last year, I am not yet convinced that this offense as a whole can go out and score 50. While having one of the leagues best defenses is obviously comforting, it also can serve as a safety blanket for the offensive play-calling. Nagy’s system has as many formations as anyone in the league. But rarely do these wild-ass sets yield a big play. The Bears averaged just 5.4 yards per play last season; good for 20th league wide.

Another reason to be cautious about placing your money on Mitch Trubisky for MVP is his decision making; which came under fire much of last year and came to a head in an underwhelming NFL Wild Card game performance against a Philadelphia Eagles secondary that couldn’t cover shit. Decision making, or a lack there of, becomes evident only when the bullets are live. OTAs and training camp doesn’t give a quarterback a realistic view of what they are going to face when the red jerseys are off.

If expectations were results, Mitch Trubisky would be the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. I don’t doubt Mitch will improve in his third season; he’s just not a guy who would crack my top 20 QB’s…yet.

Baseball

I have been beating the “Cishek Is Overused” Drum for over a year now. In fact, I’ve moved on from that, to now proclaiming that his ERA, which had been under 3.00 most of the season until last night, was actually a massive conspiracy the Cubs were foisting upon us to protect Joe Maddon or something. And everyone just went along with it. It seemed like every time Cishek came into a game, projectiles were hurling into the bleachers. And yet that ERA….it remained low. It wasn’t always others’ runs scoring either. Conspiracy, I tell you.

Just like last season, there is a huge fear that Maddon has used (and warmed-up) Cishek too much, and he’s gagging toward the finish line. But now thanks to the injuries to Strop, Kimbrel, possibly Kintzler now, and the horrid signing of Brandon Morrow, along with the implosion of Carl Edwards and the failure to develop anyone other than maybe Rowan Wick, Maddon has no choice really but to keep using Cishek. And even an IL stint later in the season, if even possible, doesn’t feel like it would be enough.

Last year, the numbers didn’t turn bad until September, when Cishek ran an ERA of 4.15 and watched his walks balloon to over six per nine innings. Based on last night’s turkey shoot, the collapse might be coming sooner this time around. And hey, Cishek is 33 and has piled up 133 appearances the past two seasons. This was after making only 49 appearances in 2017, so nearly doubling that to 80 last year was…well, it was a choice.

The thing with Cishek is the stuff and numbers don’t really suggest he’s flagging. His sinker/fastball has actually gained velocity every month. Same with his slider. He’s actually giving up less hard contact by five percentage points this year than last, and getting more soft contact by the same margin. IF you want to StatCast it, his average exit velocity is down from last year.

The problem, Captain Obvious, is that he’s giving up too many homers. But the contact numbers on his fly balls are exactly the same as they’ve been, if not better. He’s just watching twice as many homers leave the park on his fly balls than he did last year. Which can at least be partially attributed to the golf balls pitchers are being asked to throw this season.

Cishek’s strikeouts are down, which means more balls in play, which means just more fly balls in general even if it’s the same percentage of contact, which means more chances for them to just float out of the park.

The only change you can see as far as stuff this year is his slider doesn’t have as much sweep as it did. It’s the red line on top here:

Still, hitters are hitting that slider for only a .211 average this year, though that’s some 30 points better than they’ve managed over Cishek’s career. It’s the sinker that hitters are mullering more often, but again, that hasn’t really lost any juice as far as velocity or movement. Maybe location is the problem? The added miles on the odometer have left him unable to pinpoint it as well? Not really:

And as you would probably figure out, Cishek is only getting hurt when that sinker leaks over the middle of the plate, which it isn’t doing at any higher rate than it used to.

Still, I can throw all the numbers I want at you, and charts (oh how I love my charts), but we both watch the games and we see that almost every outing for Cishek has been a goat hump. He’s given up runs in three of his last five outings. And it’s not a question of rest in between, because he’s had rough outings with three or more days off in between and clean outings on back-to-back days. But at the end of the day, he’s only had two “clean” outings (no hits, no walks) in two of his last 11 appearances. And that slider is losing snap.

But given the situation, what choice is there?

 

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: A’s 64-48   Cubs 60-51

GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday 7:05, Wednesday 1:20

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday and Wednesday

WELCOME TO OAKLAND, BITCH: AthleticsNation

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Spotlight: Billy Beane

In some ways, this is a Paula Abdul special, though we can’t find her cartoon cat (yeah, I know, dated. But that video was manna for any adolescent boy so go fuck yourself. We certainly did!) One team has a lockdown bullpen and doesn’t strike out much. The other has a forest fire of a pen that’s now hurt and strikes out a ton.

There are similarities too, as both teams are plus defensively (usually) and hit a ton of homers, and with the air hot the next couple days there shouldn’t be any shortage of that.

The A’s come in having just done the Cubs a favor by taking four of five from the Brewers and Cardinals last week, sending the Cubs into first place even though they were inserting various digits into their own anus for part of the week. They’re also a half-game back of Tamps for the second wildcard spot, and two-and-a-half games behind the Indians for the top one. They won’t catch the Astros (no one will, probably) and that’s generally where you find the A’s. Unable to run with the big boy finances but able to cobble together a team of misfits and whatsits to earn a best of the rest tag before those misfits and whatsits have to get paid and fuck off to other pastures.

This version of the A’s comes in with a pretty incredible infield defense, highlighted by Matt Chapman at third. He’s the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league, though his bat hasn’t quite followed this year as it did last thanks to some fiendish BABIP Kung Fu Treachery and a lack of line-drives. Marcus Semien has become quite the shortstop (it’s ok Southsiders, you have Tim Anderson and his cardboard hands now), and Matt Olson is no slouch at first. Jurickson Profar has not been the discovery they were hoping for at second though. The outfield isn’t quite up to par, especially with Laureano hurt as he is now. Piscotty has returned, but really, what does that mean? Oh that’s right, three homers for the former Cardinal because that’s the way of things.

Offensively the A’s hit a ton of homers and walk a lot, both top-10 in MLB. That’s kind of been their thing for what, 20 years? It’s more of a solid outfit than a spectacular one, but Semien, Chapman, Olson, and Canha make for a spiky top of the lineup.

The pitching is where it gets abstract. There isn’t a starter here you’d piss on if they were on fire, especially now that Frankie Montas is in PED Detention. Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Chris Bissitt, and Tanner Roark are basically asked to not burn the house down for five innings, and they’ll turn it over to their pen from there. This may change one day if Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk ever stay healthy, and both of them might buttress the staff in some fashion in September.

But it’s the pen that’s the real strength, and has remained so even though last year’s main star, Blake Treinen, struggled earlier in the year. Liam Hendriks and his vegamite have come to the rescue as closer, and along with Joakim Soria, Yusmeiro Petit, Lou Trivino, recent pick-up Jake Diekman, and a host of others the A’s can get nine to 12 outs from their pen on a nightly basis. And they usually have to. It’s not a strikeout/doomsday platoon out there aside from Hendriks, but they don’t walk guys and they let the defense do their thing. It’s clearly effective.

For the Cubs, more bad news on top of the piece that Willson Contreras is out a month. Craig Kimbrel felts some vermin in his knee on the weekend and he’s on the IL. So if you’re going to ask who is going to close games for the Cubs…please don’t. They’ll probably have to figure it out as best they can, and none of it is going to be pleasant. We’re all in this together.

The Cubs have been aces of the universe at home, going 10-2 since the break. But the A’s are hardly pushovers and have their own stakes, and then the Cubs head out on the road for 10, and there won’t be much of a margin for a mass fuck-up like last time. Should be a fun one on the Northside.

Baseball

Whether Billy Beane likes it or not, he’s going to be the face of baseball’s–and perhaps sports’s–analytic movement. That’s what happens when you get a book and movie written about you and you’re the only sports executive to claim that. Though one day there’s going to be a TV movie about Bill Belichik and if they do the whole story, that’s going to be popcorn-worthy.

Beane didn’t even start “the movement” in Oakland, which you already knew if you read Moneyball. Sandy Alderson as Beane’s boss did that. But no one’s really going to care when it’s all said and done, just like no one really cares that technically David Forst is the A’s GM right now with Beane being the vice president. Beane is pretty much the face of the franchise, and that has a huge part to do with the flash mob he has to keep assembling on the field. Do you think more fans know who Beane or Matt Chapman is?

The A’s once again are chasing a wildcard spot, miles behind the Astros but at the moment the best of the rest. It would be their second “playoff appearance” in a row, if you consider the coin-flip game such a thing. For the record books, it does. And this would be Beane’s fourth iteration of a good-to-great A’s team. Fifth if you consider the 2001 and 2002 teams vastly different, though that’s a bit of a stretch considering the rotation of Zito, Hudson, and Mulder were still around (and what Hawk Harrelson would point out immediately). People forget the A’s made the playoffs the year after the movie took place as well, and lost to the Red Sox in five games, again.

The A’s would win 88 and 91 games the next two years but fail to make the playoffs, but finally broke through the Divisional Series glass ceiling the next year behind Eric Chavez, Nick Swisher, Milton Bradley, Big Hurt, Dan Haren, and Barry Zito. But that team couldn’t stick together long as Zito fled across the bay (to comedic results) and others moved along.

Beane constructed another team out of those ashes, mostly via trade, and the A’s made three consecutive playoff trips from 2012-2014, except they kept running into Justin Verlander, which is a problem. Those were the Josh Reddick, Sonny Gray, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson era A’s. When Verlander wasn’t in the way, the Royals’ feet were. And they once again had to be broken up due to salaries and age as all of those players have moved on.

Which leaves us with this group, and it’s easy to see that these A’s eras have all been a bit different. The first one just bashed the shit out of the ball, though the great starting pitching was another factor. The second one mirrored the first, but leaned more on the pen. The strength of the teams in the first part of the decade was that they caught everything along with a lot of homers. And this one currently also catches just about everything, hits a lot of homers, but leans heaviest on their bullpen, with no starter having a name that wouldn’t make you furrow your brow.

Ah, but will any of this matter if the A’s never bring home a World Series? It’s been the white whale for the White Elephants Of The East Bay, and the cudgel that anyone not wanting to listen to the numbers uses to dismiss Oakland. It doesn’t matter the limited resources the A’s have always had, playing in a literal shit-heap of a park. They’re the face of how the game changed, and hence will always be a villain to some.

It’s hard to think of any front office that gets three or four iterations of a team to the playoffs. Brian Cashman arguably is on his third with the Yankees (late 90’s, 2009, and now), but the difference in resources is obvious. The Red Sox have used three different front offices for their four titles. Brian Sabean had two, with the teams that were good with Bonds in the mid 2000s and then their #EvenYear run.

But none of those is four. Sure, some of that is just lack of gumption from multiple A’s owners to do anything with Beane, and the fear that no one else would take the job if he were dismissed. And he had his chance to move along, and he didn’t want it. Still, over 20 years now, you can’t really argue with the work, and with a couple bounces here or there (perhaps Jeremy Giambi learning to slide or Justin Verlander catching the flu), the A’s just might have gotten that World Series.

Beane will probably deserve a Hall of Fame induction when he’s through, considering how the game pivoted around him. And yet, without even so much as an AL pennant, you’ll find strong argument against him. You’d have to say it’s unlikely he gets there. He’ll have to settle for changing how the game is viewed, or at least having a major hand in that. He’d probably tell you that’s fine, because that’s a much more exclusive club than Cooperstown.

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 48-61   Tigers 32-75

GAMETIMES: Monday 6:10, Tuesday 12:20 and 6:10, Wednesday 12:10

TV: NBCSN Monday and both Tuesday, WGN Wednesday

THAT NERD LOOKS LIKE JAM: Bless You Boys

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts and Pitching Staffs

Matthew Boyd Spotlight

There is something a little cruel about the Sox and Tigers matching up in the dead of August, and there’s something outright sadistic about making them play a doubleheader on Tuesday. Then again, there’s something poetic about it as well. How can you not get romantic about baseball?

Well, you could watch the Tigers regularly, for one. This is a team that’s going to have an end to the season written by Dante. They traded the one hitter they had to the Cubs in Nicholas Castellanos, and there is nothing left behind here. Miguel Cabrera has lost most of his power and he needs a Rascal to get to first base, which he doesn’t do as often as you’d think. There isn’t any hitter here that has even an average wRC+ other than Brandon Dixon, who has been relegate to backup duty.

What the Tigers have to be selling is that there are some kids up, but even that’s a stretch. Travis Demeritte was part of the return for Shane Green, but he has only 90 good games at AAA after two barely “meh” years at AA. Victory Reyes barely did anything at the AAA level either, but he’s here in left. Jake Rogers has taken over the catching duties, and he tore AA apart for 30 games, but was middling at Triple-A as well before getting the call. To say there are going to be some bumps would be the height of politeness.

The one thing the Tigers can do is throw some starters at you, as the Sox will see both Daniel Norris and Spencer Turnbull this series, the latter coming off the IL today. They’ll miss out on the ace, Matthew Boyd though. Those three have been serviceable to great, and even that hasn’t kept the Tigers from being the worst team in baseball. Wait until they start conserving these guys’ innings. However, again, in the rotation only Tyler Alexander is 25 or below, and it’s worthy to ask if any of these guys will ever pitch a game that matters at Comerica.

As you might expect with a team this bad, the bullpen is full of kids who pee in the sandbox at recess, and even more so now that it’s been shorn of Green. Whatever work the starters do is likely to be undone when they hand the ball off, not that it will matter that much because it’s likely the offense will have only provided a run or two at most. The last two months here are just going to be hilarious, as long as you’re not a Tigers fan.

For the Sox, they’ll trot out Hector Santiago to fill in for the doubleheader on Tuesday, while Giolito, Cease, and Nova get the softest landing possible. The pen could probably use a reset after whatever that was in Philadelphia.

This one’s for the diehards only. You know who you are.

Baseball

It’s hard to fathom that the Tigers could be worse than they are. This is a team that somehow found a way to be four games worse than the Orioles so far, and the Os are going to give up 300 homers this season. But the Motor City Felines really could be, as they’ve gotten decent work from the rotation that’s been the flower growing out of the concrete of the dump. Matthew Boyd especially, along with Daniel Norris (scourge of the Cubs) and Spencer Turnbull have put in more than decent work, and without them one wonders if the Tigers would even have 25 wins by now.

You can sort of see why the Tigers held onto any or all of them, because someone has to take the ball now and later when they might matter again. The question is if that’s going to be Boyd.

Boyd is certainly having a breakout year, with career-bests in ERA, FIP, WAR, strikeout rate, and walk rate. Boyd seems to have gotten there by becoming Patrick Corbin West, as he’s eschewed a curve he used to use for using his slider about a third of the time the past two seasons, when he had never even used it more than 11% of the time in his first few years in the majors. Boyd has had a huge spike in whiffs-per-swing on it, rising to 33.3% last year and 42.1% this year. According to FanGraphs, and really digging into the nerd-numbers, it’s been the fifth-most valuable slider this year, behind Corbin himself, Verlander, Scherzer, and Tanaka. Those first three names are ones you want to be amongst in any category, even as one as specific as this.

The real key for Boyd has been that he’ll throw that slider in any count, where before it was mostly used as a put-away pitch. There is no such thing as a fastball count these days, and Boyd is just another example of that, more than happy to throw his slider behind in the count than before. Before he threw it a third of the time when behind or even in a count, and now both of those are around or above 40%. If it’s getting that many whiffs, why not?

Again, the numbers suggest that the Tigers have a real piece here and he’s something to build around. Here’s the kicker though; he’s 28. So while he figures to have at least a couple more good years left, how many will he have left when the Tigers are actually good again? That’s at least three years down the line, when Boyd will be 31. Corbin, with his similar repertoire, is 30, and still going strong, but slider-heavy pitchers tend to fall off a cliff pretty quickly (we present Chris Archer as Exhibit A).

Boyd is only arbitration eligible this winter, and not a free agent until another three seasons after that, so it costs the Tigers pretty much nothing to see how long he can keep this up. And during any one of those arb years they can still move Boyd along for a bonanza if he continues to pitch at this level. Years of control add layers of value to a trade piece.

Still, it’s awfully sunny to think that he’ll be this good for four more years when he cashes in, whether that’s with the Tigers or not. He is only throwing fastball-slider now and it’s hard to see how he’d adjust when that doesn’t work as well, though to be fair to him it’s not like he blows away people with his fastball now. It might have plunged the Tigers into the depths that no one’s ever seen…except for the Tigers themselves when they lost 119 games.

If you’re going to go whole hog on a rebuild, go whole hog. They still might yet.