Baseball

Houston Astros Spotlight: Weapon Of Choice

By Andy Jonathan 1253 0

The Houston Astros and the LA Dodgers are the league model from building their teams from within, there’s just no way around it. Even when they have players going down with week to week or month to month injuries there’s a seemingly endless pile of high end prospects clamoring over each other to get playing time at the big league level. The most recent of these for the Astros is Yordan Alvarez, who has been nothing short of astounding for them since they called him up in mid-May of this season. Through 170 at bats so far this season, he’s slashing a gaudy .355/.431/1.164(!!!) with 17 dingers and 41 RBI.

Alvarez was traded to the Astros at the 2016 deadline from (SURPRISE!) the Dodgers for Josh Fields. The Dodgers had signed Alvarez to a $2 million signing bonus when he defected from Cuba, but had yet to play a single game for LA at any level. At the time, the Dodgers were looking to shore up their bullpen for an extended postseason run, and Fields fit the bill. Alvarez was an unknown quantity at the time, and the need was immediate. Now, Fields is a journeyman AAA pitcher, and Alvarez seems destined for Rookie of the Year honors.

So far, Alvarez has scored rookie of the month honors in June and July with these nutty numbers. The question everyone who didn’t pick him up off the waiver wire in their fantasy leagues wants to know is: are they sustainable? Looking at the advanced stats as they sit now Alvarez has has an ISO of .378, BABIP of .407, wRC+ of 204, and a wOBA of .469. Just at a very quick glance, every single one of those seem completely unsustainable were it not for the small sample size. His wRC alone would be one of the best in the history of the stat. So we can assume that some regression is due for young Mr. Alvarez, the question being just how much?

Taking a peek at some of the other stats available to us that might give a hint at how much regression is due shows that Alvarez has an excellent eye for the strike zone. His current 11% walk rate is above average, and his K rate is what you would expect from a rookie (24.4%) seeing MLB pitching for the first time. Looking at his whiff rate, it’s about what you would expect from a rookie as well, vulnerable to low and away and the high and outside pitches:

Nothing too crazy here. What about his slugging percentage vs the whiffs?

Oh my. Well what about just his batting average?

Yeesh. So apparently Yordan has the ability to cover the entire plate with pretty impressive power. He has to have a weakness somewhere, every Death Star has an exhaust port. Well his 33% fly ball to HR ratio isn’t gonna last. His .400 BABIP is pretty unsustainable, though even if he regresses .050 that still would probably project out to a 40 HR/100 RBI season in that juggernaut of a lineup. The kid has a good feel for the zone, and can get to pitches out of the zone with power and frequency. All this says to the Sox pitching for this series is they need to tread very lightly when Alvarez is up. Nova and Cease in particular need to work the top of their zone with the hard stuff, away if able. If they aren’t going to be precise with that stuff and leave some over the plate, Alvarez is going to hurt them. Though to be fair, that goes for pretty much the entire Astros lineup.

 

 

Baseball

Jon Lester Is Fine, You’re Fine, I’m Fine, Everything’s Fine. Just Maybe Not Dandy, Too

By Sam Fels 1122 0

(30 for 30 voice)

What if I told you that Jon Lester is actually better than last year? You probably wouldn’t believe it, right? That tends to happen when you have as ugly a start as Lester did on Tuesday against Oakland. Or when you’re as happy to beat yourself up as Lester is, because he never sugarcoats anything for you. If he thinks he sucks, he’ll tell you. Maybe in comparison to the rest of the starters of late, especially Darvish and Hendricks, he can look worse than he might actually be. But it’s true, and it’s probably even better depending on where you slot Lester realistically on the staff. That’s the thing about the Cubs staff, they don’t really have “an ace.” They don’t have a #5 either. It’s kind of shapeless. Which can be good. Sometimes bad.

I will always use any excuse to get this into a post.

Still, every peripheral on Lester is actually better than last year, and not by tiny margins either. He’s striking out more hitters, he’s walking less, he’s getting more ground-balls. In fact, his K and BB numbers look pretty much exactly like his first two years here, when he put up a 2.92 FIP in ’15 and a 2.44 ERA in ’16. That’s a good starting point.

But he’s not putting up that end-product, and it’s easy to point out why. Lester is giving up basically twice as many homers as he did then. In 2015 he gave up 16 all season. The next year it was 21. Hell, last year it was 24. This year he’s already given up 21. But Lester’s HR/FB rate (15.7%) isn’t even the highest of his career. That came in 2017, just a tenth of a point higher. So is that because he’s old and slowing down? Or because of bad luck and a baseball hopped up on goofballs? The strikeouts and walks suggest it’s more the latter than the former.

The bad luck theme continues for Lester. His BABIP is .340, a full 50 POINTS higher than last season, and 41 points higher than his career-mark. Yes, Lester is giving up way more hard-contact than ever before, at 39% which is eight percentage points higher than last year and a full 12 over his career-mark. You know who else is giving up more hard-contact? FUCKING EVERYONE ELSE. If you go by the StatCast method, his 88.3 average exit velocity is decidedly middle of the pack. He shouldn’t really be dealing with this much damage.

Lester has also been unlucky in his left-on-base percentage, which speaks to sequencing of hits. After all, you can have five hits in one inning and give up three, or give up five in three innings and surrender none. He’s benefitted from some big-time luck in the past on that, with percentages over 80% two of his seasons in Chicago (average is about 75%). This season it’s just 70%, which is on the low-side and around his ’17 mark where he also couldn’t get much to break his way.

That doesn’t mean Lester hasn’t changed his approach, and we went over some of this last season. Lester has gone to a cutter more and more this season, as his four-seam fastball has lost a full three MPH from his career norm and barely breaks 90 MPH. He only uses the four-seam 30% of the time, the lowest mark of his career by a distance. And his cutter usage is up to 34%, the highest mark also by some distance in his career.

It used to be that Lester would only use his cutter to get in on the fists of righties, like so:

This season, he’s trying to find both sides of the plate with it:

And it might just be that Lester has to do that, because the cutter doesn’t have enough juice to consistently get inside on righties, who have the ability to turn on it.

Even off the plate inside, if not low, is getting pumping bomber’d. Whereas he’s been much more controlled outside, as long as it’s not thigh-to-waist. Which basically means Lester is trying to morph into Tom Glavine. It’s a transition, to be sure. In addition. Lester has always lived at the bottom of the zone, if not lower. But as we know these days, hitters are focusing on lifting that pitch, and pitchers are trying to be up in the zone more. Lester is as well, but he did spend over 10 years doing something else. So to expect him to instantly be able to pick his spots high in the zone would be a touch unreasonable.

That doesn’t mean I’d expect Lester to mow everyone down for the last six weeks of the season, and as you saw yesterday finding the outside corner with his cutter for him is still tricky. But it really isn’t as bad as Lester himself would like you to think it’s been. If he gets any sort of market correction in the season’s last month and a half, he’ll look something like you remember.

 

 

Football

Kicker? I Hardly Know Her

By Brian Schmitz 1790 0

Last Thursday, the Bears lost a football game that didn’t matter. However, for Eddy Pineiro and Elliott Fry it meant everything. Just about every NFL kicker and punter knows that for them, preseason games are just as important as the real games. No other position has as much riding on their future employment as specialists do in preseason games. This was not a preseason game for Pineiro and Fry, this was game 1.

After one game, the Bears kicking situation became only marginally clearer. Here is what we learned:

Because he has a stronger leg, and probably because he was the frontrunner to win the position going into the game, Eddy Pineiro was given the opportunity to kickoff the preseason opener. Pineiro blasted his first offering into the endzone for a touchback and phase 2 of the longest and most talked about kicker competition in NFL history was underway.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 0

After a few stalled drives and Pat O’Donnell bombs, David Montgomery continued to impress with a 7-yard touchdown run. Enter Elliott Fry for the point after; Fry was pure as the Bears tied the game at 7-7.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 1

Fry handled the ensuing kickoff and didn’t have the leg strength to cancel out a return. The ball was fielded at the 1-yard line and brought out 22 yards to the 23-yard line. This was a good coverage kick, however, the best way to limit the possibility of a big return is to ensure there is no return at all.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 0

On the next Bears drive, Pineiro’s night took a turn for the worse as he was called on to attempt a 48-yard field goal late in the second quarter. Pineiro never sniffed the middle of the uprights and was wide left on the attempt. No one would say a 48-yarder is a gimmie, but it certainly won’t get any easier to convert when its December, the turf is green spray-painted frozen dirt, and the wind is blowing 20mph off the lake. A low pressure, preseason, 80-degree Chicago night with no wind to speak of is easily the best conditions to kick in the kicker graveyard known as Soldier Field.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro -2 Fry 0

An impressive 43 second drill from Chase Daniel brought the Bears to the Carolina 25-yard line, which meant Elliott Fry would come on to attempt…wait for it…A 43 YARD FIELD GOAL WITH 3 SECONDS LEFT (in the half). Fry calmly banged home his first FG attempt as a Chicago Bear – a smooth looking ball that never left center cut. The result yielding the loudest fan reaction of the night. Something you may have missed is that prior to the kick, Riverboat Ron Rivera called a time-out. When asked about this decision, Rivera said he was trying to help the Bears and their coaching staff out. This was a very cool moment and shows a lot about the character of one Rico Rivera.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro -2 Fry 3

With just over seven minutes left, Eddy Pineiro had a shot at a little redemption. Pineiro easily punched through a 23-yard field goal to savage what would have been a largely disappointing night for the kicker.

Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 1 Fry 4

The final kick of the night was an Eddy Pineiro kickoff which failed to reach the endzone. The greater problem with this result and that Pineiro is in this competition due to his supposed kickoff power. This was not evident on this kick vs. the Panthers.

Final Kicker Scoreboard: Pineiro 0 Fry 4

I feel Fry’s game one performance was good enough to move him ahead in the kicking competition. After going center cut on his first extra point attempt, the former ‘Cock (never not funny) made his only FG attempt. Fry’s kickoffs left something to be desired but placekicking consistency will always trump kickoff strength in a league where a premium is placed on points. This a guy who made 161 of 162 extra points during his college career; there is no concern over his short-range accuracy.

The other participant in the Bears Kickerpolloza did not have nearly as good of a night. While Eddy Pineiro has a stronger leg, consistency issues continue to plague him. This was a first impression of sorts for Eddy, and unfortunately, he had the look and the performance of guy who is struggling with confidence issues.

While extra points and field goals get a majority of the attention in this kicking battle, do not overlook the importance of kickoffs and how they will affect the Bears decision on who stays and who goes. Neither kicker pulled away from the competition last night and the neck and neck race continues. If everything continues as it has, the job will go to the better kickoff man. The Bears will not carry a kickoff specialist on the 53 man roster and Pat O’Donnell cannot fill that role. So, moving forward, look beyond extra point and field goal accuracy and focus on touchbacks and kickoff placement.

So, after almost 900 words about kicking, I leave you with this…right now, I don’t see either guy being the Bears kicker in the week 1 opener vs. Green Bay.

Baseball

Series Recap: Sox Lose 2 of 3 To A’s – Offensively Offensive

By Andy Jonathan 1125 0

BOX SCORES

Game 1: A’s 7 – Sox 0

Game 2: A’s 2 – Sox 3

Game 3: A’s 2 – Sox 0

 

There’s not much you can say when a team gets shut out in 2 of the 3 games over the weekend. The Sox just aren’t scoring runs right now, as any team that starts a combination of Matt Skole, Yolmer Sanchez, Adam Engel and Ryan Goins isn’t going to threaten much at the dish. It doesn’t help that Jose Abreu and James McCann continue their southward slide towards offensive oblivion. Timmy and Eloy can only do so much, and even with Moncada’s imminent return this lineup isn’t super scary at the moment. What can you do but go to the bullets?

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

-Let’s start with a few positives: Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito look like they’re gonna be OK. We can all exhale because the #3 and #5 starters of the Sox Rotation Of The Future seem to have their shit back in order. Lopez looked very good on Saturday, and that’s even with him admitting he didn’t have his changeup working like it normally does. He only struck out 3 batters, but he kept the sneakily powerful A’s lineup grounded, inducing 11 ground balls during his start. This isn’t normal for him, but I think it speaks to his ability to adjust on the fly when he realizes certain pitches aren’t working.

-Giolito on the other hand mowed down A’s like it was going out of style. He struck out 13 in 6 innings, and really only made one mistake to Fatty Olson when he left a 1-0 fastball belt high to him which ended up in the Goose Island of Sadness. That oopsie aside, Giolito had his slider and fastball cooking in the first few innings. After that the A’s made adjustments and sat on his heat and he went to the change to get the punchouts. All in all I’m very happy with what I saw out of those two this weekend.

-Ross Detweiler is not the answer to any questions the front office should be asking.

-3 runs in a 3 game series speaks for itself.  The A’s pitching staff is very underrated, but it’s not like Cy Young pitched all 3 games either. The Sox only managed 4 hits against Mike Fiers, who makes Tim Wakefield look like Nolan Ryan. Seems like they need to hit their way outta this one, just sad news for my retinas while they do it.

-Alex Colome escapes with his ass intact after some…creative D by Ryan Goins. Error aside, Colome seems to be skating by hitters with more than the usual amount of luck. The end of his run may be near, and it’s gonna be ugly when it implodes. Hahn May regret not selling high.

-Life doesn’t get any easier next series, as the unholy terror of the Astros visit the south side. It’s a different look for their offense, as the team the Sox beat in May has added Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez to their now fully armed and operational battle station. This could be ugly…

 

 

 

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Split With Reds: Fine, Whatever, Good, Let’s Get Outta Here

By Sam Fels 1380 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 12, Reds 5

Game 2 Box Score: Reds 5, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Reds 10, Cubs 1

Game 4 Boxscore: Cubs 6, Reds 3

Considering all that’s happened against the Reds this year, how annoying they’ve been, how every hitter turns into Barry McGwire Mays against the Cubs, I’m taking this split of four games and sprinting for the airport. Series wins against the Phillies and Pirates would mean a 6-4 roadtrip and yes I’ll have some of that. Sure, it’s still a below-.500 team and you’d like to think the Cubs will find the form to beat teams like that more routinely. But hey, when you get a boil off your ass you don’t really worry about how elegantly you did it.

The thing is it was so close to being better. There was a lot of people trying to remove their own tongues through their neck on Friday night, but if Javy Baez’s hard-hit grounder is two feet to either side of where it was it scores two and it’s 5-4 with no outs and two on. Shit happens sometimes. Sometimes Hendricks or any starter doesn’t have it on that day. You live with it, it’s just that there have been so many other boneheaded losses it gets harder to do.

Most of all, after I complained and moaned after St. Louis that the Cubs didn’t fight or scratch or claw their way back into ABs and games on the road, today they did. Hell, you could argue they did on Thursday too when Hamels gave up a big lead and they just poured it on some more. But today especially, against Luis Castillo-whom they weren’t really close to in the game’s first five innings–they took advantage of some lackadaisical location and selection and found a way back. Helps the Reds pen hasn’t been any good since the break, but you take it.

Oh, and they made Thom Brennaman cry. Good day all around.

Let’s…

-I thought Jon Lester had fucked it today, but that wasn’t totally fair. The 3-0 pitch to Eugenio Suarez wasn’t as bad as a I thought:

That’s more good hitting than bad pitching. He even tried to stay away from Apollo/Aries/Yahweh Aquino, and he still went outside the zone and got it. He kept it close enough, which after that outing on Tuesday is good enough for now.

The real upset was that the pen was flawless, with only one hit and one walk in four innings or work. They may have lucked into Rowan Wick, but he was the main star, going two innings and going through the meat of the Reds lineup to give Strop the easier part. He even figured out to give Aquino nothing below his nose or above his ankles.

-I kind of had it wrong all weekend on Aquino, too. He had a decent 7.9% BB-rate in the minors this year, so he’s not the hack-a-thon I thought/hoped he was. Still, when he’s raining fire down upon you, the Cubs could have figured out to not be over the plate as much if only to avoid damage. Then again, when you’re already down eight…

-Very weird start for Darvish, who gave up four runners all night and all of them scored. He didn’t get away with one mistake, which almost seems unfair. Have that start again and he might go eight shutout next time.

-I want to believe that this IL stint is the rest Cishek needs that Maddon would never give him, instead of the abusive use shredding the hip he’s already had surgery on before. That’s what I want to believe.

-I was just thinking to myself that with the ball being a Titleist, 22 homers for Bryant seemed a touch on the low-side. I’ll take the 23rd and shut up now. The Cubs are seriously just one Bryant binge away from hiding from the Brewers and Cardinals.

-And good on Joe for letting Mills take the last four innings in a blowout to not have to use anyone who will matter. That left Phelps, Wick, and Strop fresh for today. I still want to believe Maples will matter one day, but I’m probably the only one now.

-Y’know, if Ian Happ keeps hitting, it doesn’t really matter if Ben Zobrist makes it back or not.

-My one quarrel with Friday is that with two outs and Amir Garrett on the mound, one of the tougher lefties in the division, Schwarber shouldn’t be given that AB. I know that Bote or Almora is hardly a step up, but presumably Bote is still here because he might actually hit a lefty sometime. Fairly sure Schwarber won’t, especially in a clutch situation. Oh well.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Friday Foofaraw: Premier League Preview Part II

By Sam Fels 1337 0

Let’s keep it rolling…

Manchester City: (Adam Hess is a Sky Blue, so we went to him for this…before we fire him.)

CAMPEONES! CAMPEONES! OLE OLE OLE! With back to back Premier League Championships and the best two-year run in the history of the Prem, along with the completion of the straight Domestic Sweep in 2018 it’s hard to say City have much more to accomplish in England. City did need to go on a historic 14-game win streak to close out Liverpool in the Prem last year, but when you got it you got it, and Pep’s fucking got it. It will be interesting to see how City approach the League this year given that they have had that incredible success these past two years.
Where my focus lies for City and Pep is Europe, where they need to finally have a good run in the Champions League and prove that they are for real on the European stage. They’ve almost reached a point where you can set your watch to them bowing out in the quarterfinals. And what’s even more frustrating is that they haven’t actually been beaten in their elimination round in two the last three years, going out on away goals in 2017, getting smoked in 2018 (they went out 5-2 on aggregate to a club with actual European pedigree, mind-ED) and then lost on away goals again in 2019. Pep has never had huge success in Europe, but he does have a UCL title under his belt, so he can do it. It’s time for him to do it for the Blues.
Manchester United: BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! If there’s one thing everyone who contributed to this can agree on is that we can have a hearty laugh at ManUre. They’re hierarchy is a mess being flooded with nincompoops, they got bullied into hiring a former player because the current players were so overjoyed not to have to deal with Jose Mourinho’s Eeyore act anymore even though it’s clear he’s way in over his head, and their playing staff simply isn’t good enough. They’ve punted Romelu Lukaku, whom they somehow ruined, so they can turn over the central striking duties to Marcus Rashford, even though he hasn’t proven he can handle that yet. Paul Pogba will be in the biggest sulk you’ve ever seen, which is saying something considering he’s French. The defense might be ok with Lindelof and Maguire, but only just. The midfield blows, the attack is short, and having lived through this nightmare with Liverpool some years back I can’t wait to enjoy it for another season. 5th seems prime for them. One day, a great manager is going to take all their money and straighten out the entire club by sheer force of will. But until that happens, we have to enjoy this slapstick theater while it lasts.
Newcastle: Going down, and sadly it’s what their owner, though not their fans, deserve. This club, given its size and support, should be challenging for Champions League places, and has in the past. But they have one of the biggest dickhead owners in sports in Mike Ashley, who has taken the most passionate fanbase possibly anywhere and turned them off this club. He chased away a genuine class manager in Rafael Benitez–the only reason they got promoted and stayed up the past two season–because he wouldn’t back him with transfers. He replaced him with English football’s version of Randy Carlyle in Steve Bruce, because he’s from there and won’t raise a fuss. They’ll play an awful brand of football, they’ll never score, and down they’ll go. And this time, they may not come back. It’s truly a crime, but maybe regular seasons in the lower divisions will finally chase Ashley off and this club can get the owner it deserves.
Norwich City: They blew away the Championship in the back half of last year, and seem content to stick with the squad that did that. They played some sumptuous football last season, scoring 93 goals in 46 league games. But they weren’t great defensively, they haven’t added to that defense, and now they’re facing Premier League attacks. There is some logic in not getting out over your skis financially upon promotion and then fucking yourself royally should you go back down. This seems to be a long-term project for Norwich, and they’ll play some stuff at times. Maybe they can hang on for 17th, and Newcastle and Palace might keep them propped up amongst the old guard threatening to go down. Still, it’ll be an adventure.
Sheffield United: As far as I’m concerned this team is always managed by Neil Warnock, even if it isn’t. It might as well be. They’ve gone the opposite route from Norwich upon ascension to the EPL, spending 40M on Championship talent to boost their Premier League hopes. They’re also the opposite of Norwich in that this is pretty grind-y, sandpaper-y style here, and you can expect a lot of balls lumped into the box and a lot of hard fouls. They like a kicking in Yorkshire, after all. I would tip them to return from whence they came though, along with Newcastle and Palace.
Southampton: If Bournemouth doesn’t become your second team, this one might. Southampton have specialized in developing talent, playing an entertaining style, and staying afloat by selling that talent to bigger clubs (usually Liverpool). They fucked up by hiring Mark Hughes as manager for a while, but have put that right by replacing him with Ralph Hasenhuttl, or Baby Klopp, basically. Goals might be a problem as they’ll depend on Danny Ings before his glass body breaks again, and unproven-at-this-level Che Adams. Still, Hasenhuttl had this bunch playing over their head when he got settled, and I’d expect that again…to the point where he might be offered greener pastures next summer.
Spurs: (Old friend of the program Greg Boysen chipped in for this one. I can’t fire him)

I will be the first to admit that I am still a novice when it comes to soccer as I only started to follow the Premiere League when NBC picked up the broadcast rights here in the States. I chose the Spurs as my team because of a good friend who grew up in England cheering for them with her father. It did not take very long before I realized they were the perfect team a life-long Chicago sports fans should be cheering for. They have just enough talent to get your hopes up only to kick you right in the reproductive organs by the end of the season. 

Last year was no exception. For a good portion of the season, they looked like they were going to keep up with Liverpool and Manchester City make it a three-team race for the title. Then the calendar turned over to 2019 and the team’s lack of depth caused them to slide down the standings and barely hang on to fourth place. Sound familiar?

The cherry on top of last season’s shit sundae was pulling a miracle out of their collective ass to get the Champions League final only to lose it. It wasn’t just that the lost the game to Liverpool (up yours, Fels!), but they lost to them in one of the worst games in European football history!

Will this season be any different? Probably not. They brought in guys like Tanguy Ndombele, Jack Clarke, Giovani Lo Celso and Ryan Sessegnon but their success will still depend on Harry Kane. Yes, Son Heung-min and Moussa Sissoko had good years, but the Liverpool game showed just how important Kane’s health is to the club’s success. 

The new additions should add to their overall depth, but they still don’t have a traditional center forward to support Kane and there are major question marks at right-back. The right flank is going to challenge my new found sobriety this year. 

So, I am sure will be feeling great about the table at Christmas only to curse my Spurs fandom before I head out to a Super Bowl party in February. 

Watford: Watford are one of the weirder clubs around. Their ownership seemingly likes to change managers every season, though they’ve stuck with Javi Gracia again this time around, mainly because other teams wanted him. They generally buy a raft of players, and none of them can dislodge Troy Deeney from forward. They’ve been quiet this time around, though they’ve brought in Danny Welbeck, who has still convinced a large number of pundits over there he can still be good because he banged in a couple goals for England once. How he made that England team is anyone’s guess. He’ll get hurt, he’ll have one good game when he’s not hurt, and that will be that. Other than that, a steadying ship means they’re probably not going too much farther than last year’s 11th place, which for this club is pretty good. Any higher and Gracia is getting poached by someone. They do attack, they can be easy on the eye, and you’ll forget they existed as soon as they’re done playing your team.

West Ham: I’m not sure I want to live in a world where West Ham are acting sensibly. Well, somewhat sensibly. This is still a side that shipped 55 goals last season and still mostly spent their kitty on attack. But that attack, with Felipe Anderson, Lanzini, and now Sebastien Haller looks mighty tasty. They can get bullied by lower, less skilled sides and they’re not good enough to play with the big boys consistently, though they can definitely jump up and bite one or two of them on a given day. Declan Rice is the truth anchoring the midfield, but Mark Noble still gets a place here and he died three years ago. Yet another team below the top four that can be entertaining as hell, in both good and bad ways.

Wolves: They may have a sordid arrangement with super agent Jorge Mendes, but that’s the way the world works and it gets manager Nuno Santo some prime players you wouldn’t think would land in the Midlands. Ruben Neves has stuck around for a second season, which no one saw coming. Raul Jimenez also signed up full-time, which will mean goals which is where teams like this generally struggle. Wolves won’t. Jesus Vallejo on a season-long loan in intriguing, as he could end up boosting the defense something fierce. If you’re anchoring the Spanish Under-21s, there’s something to you. Joao Moutinho is also still here for creativity. Possible best of the rest? Possibly more if Chelsea, Arsenal, and United can’t get their shit straight? Feels like them and Everton might be dreaming big this season.

Everything Else

Friday Foofaraw: Your Premier League Preview Part I

By Sam Fels 1209 0

If you’re new around here, summer Friday afternoons is when we occasionally go off the reservation and just write about whatever we feel like. Today…what you two talkin’ about? FOOTBALL!!!

By the time you read this, the Premier League season will have kicked off at the home of the greatest, bestest, most lovable, awesomest club in the world. But that doesn’t mean we can’t send you off into the weekend with some footy related silliness! So as is tradition now, let’s run through the Premier League to wrongly predict who will do what when!

Arsenal: If you know an Arsenal supporter, and you do because they’re the most annoying person in your life by some distance, you’ve seen this movie before. Every summer is slightly encouraging, especially now that Unai Emery is getting to mold his squad more in the way he wants. Nicholas Pepe and Dani Ceballos certainly look intriguing, especially the latter as the Gunners needed serious help in defense and he can certainly shield it.

But at the end of the day, this is still a team owned by Stan Kroenke that just isn’t going to run with the biggest of boys. I still don’t know what it is Granit Xhaka does for a living other than having a first name of “Granit.” The midfield lacks dash, because Ozil won’t ever play and won’t be interested when he does, and it lost a fair amount when Aaron Ramsey shuffled off to Italy. Aubameyang and Lacazette will still score, and thanks to Chelsea’s transfer ban and Spurs’s growing exhaustion there might be an opening in the top four for them. But it’s more of it coming to them than the other way around.

As we say every year, Arsenal’s season will go one of two ways. They’ll start out great, get everyone’s hopes up, and then everyone will get hurt and they’ll somersault over the line. Or everyone will get hurt early, they’ll stumble around until February, close with a flourish, and it will start all over.

Aston Villa: (Decided to go right to the source for this one, and asked old friend and longtime supporter Andrew Cieslak to give us the lowdown) 

Aston Villa finally returns back to its rightful place in the Premier League after three long years in the desert. The Villans are the 5th most successful English club of all time but then again longevity is a hell of a drug. They returned to the top flight after kicking Steve Bruce to the curb midseason and bringing on Brentford manager and boyhood Villa fan Dean Smith (no, not that one) whose attacking style won hearts and minds and eventually the Sky Bet Championship Playoff Final. 

This season the only real goal is survival and while simply hoping for three teams to end up with fewer points is one way to do things, Aston Villa decided to spend nearly 170 million Euros on 12 players this summer and may not be done yet. To those suggesting they’re “doing a Fulham” I’d ask what’s life like living in a fish bowl but they’d probably have a hard time understanding what with all the water and do fish even have ears? 

Prying Douglas Luiz away from Manchester City is no small feat either but he’s still mostly potential. If Football Manager is any judge, he’s worth 90 million pounds more than Villa actually spent. With new keeper Tom Heaton in from Burnley, Tyrone Mings back on a permanent deal alongside long six foot four Belgian Bjorn Engels in central defense, and Jack Grealish and John McGinn in central midfield – it’s all about the spine. Will anyone be able to score goals? Your guess is as good as mine but if they don’t, it’ll be a long season. 

Bournemouth: A lot of people’s second favorite team to watch, because Eddie Howe sends his charges out to play instead of just heading for the panic room, throwing their hands over the ears and hoping they get out alive. They also couldn’t defend for shit, which made them even more entertaining. They’ve bought a couple of the Championship’s more promising defenders to help with that, and with Callum Wilson and and Ryan Fraser they’re always a threat to get goals. They probably can’t finish higher than 10th, but given the size of this club that’s a minor miracle anyway. Great entertainers for when your team isn’t playing and you’re hungover on a Saturday or Sunday morning.

Brighton: I’d honestly forgot they existed. I was sure they had been relegated. Anyway, they fired Chris Hughton and hired Graham Potter, who everyone seems pretty excited about. They still count on Glenn Murray for goals, who’s as old as I am and that’s not a good thing for a pro athlete. Apparently there are some kids waiting to come through. They’re not appointment television, let’s say.

Burnley: The fairytale ended, as they were no longer able to bore teams to death and allow Sean Dyche to pull a mini-Allardyce routine and talk about how great he is for parking the bus because his team costs so little. You lose your credibility when you actually put Joe Hart in goal for a portion of the season, but at least he figured that one out. Hart is still around. They’re still going to try and grind out points by being as obstinate as possible and nick goals where they can. It won’t be pleasant for anyone other than Burnley supporters.

Chelsea: (Our new guy Wes French is a blue. We went to him for this one…before we fire him). 

Chelsea are in some deep shit for the 2019-20 campaign. Let’s go over the good and the bad from the last 4-5 months or so:
  • GOOD: Backdoored into the EPL top 4 with a not-as-inept a finish as MUFC and Arsenal; Beat Arsenal in the Europa League to win a trophy, land a seeded spot in UCL draw AND keep Arsenal from UCL participation; Retained on-loan Mateo Kovacic and signed Christian Pulisic in the January window, which is really good because….
  • BAD: …Chelsea received a TWO WINDOW transfer ban that has been upheld and saw no new signings in the summer which just so happened to coincide with club talisman Eden Hazard leaving for his dream club Real Madrid, and Manager Mauricio Sarri leaving after one season to return to Italy and lead Ronaldo’s Juve. David Luiz also had a fit last week and was sold to Arsenal for nothing to become their headache.
So, yea. Chelsea tried to buy some good PR with the supporters and hired club legend Frank Lampard to oversee the youth movement after his nearly bringing Derby from the bottom half of the Championship to one win away from Premier League promotion. Chelsea’s loan army is sort of what got them the transfer ban in the first place, but it’s also what they’ll look to use as a deterrent from dropping out of the top four in 2019. The Blues have a history of loaning young players and academy prospects forever and then selling, but now the likes of Tammy Abraham, Mason Mount, Kurt Zouma and many others will be relied upon to help Chelsea avoid an embarrassing campaign.
The Blues will have more than enough minutes to spread out, especially with youths they actually held and played in Callum Hudson-Odio and Reuben Loftus-Cheek each working back from Achilles injuries. The focus should be on development, with goals of contending for 4th place and securing at least some type of european participation when they are allowed to recruit new signings again, be it the winter or next Summer. Expect a lot of variance from this team this season, with a lot of frustration and some dazzling moments sprinkled in.

Crystal Palace: (Again, we went to a direct supporter for this one, longtime guy The Beverly Brewmaster. Not sure what it says something worse about, me for knowing a Crystal Palace supporter or him being one)

Palace lost its best Clash-themed chant when Aaron “Sharif don’t like it” Wan-Bissaka was sold to Man U, but the real question this offseason was how Wilfried Zaha would answer “should I stay or should I go?” It finally appears that Wilf will stay in Red and Blue… at least until the January transfer window. That’s a big deal considering Palace’s 0-274 record (approximately) without him.

But considering the lack of significant moves besides AWB’s departure, it appears the Pride of South London are destined for another season where middle of the table is the ceiling. While Luka Milavojevic and Andros Townshend can provide moments of excitement, depth at the back and at striker is a concern (especially when Christian “HOW DID HE MISS THAT?” Benteke is pretty much your only option up front). Oh, and the word on the street is that chairman Steve Parish is short on cashflow. Of course, hope springs eternal at Selhurst Park, so in the immortal words of Principal Skinner, “Prove me wrong, Crystal Palace. PROVE ME WRONG.”

Everton: (Somehow, our old head of Cyber Division, Matthew Killion, ended up a blue. So we let him do this one, and it’s a tidy reminder why we don’t let him do anything anymore)

Allow me to preface this preview a bit before we really get into it. I’ve loved this game my whole life but I didn’t start to really pay attention to EPL until about two seasons ago when I decided I needed a team to follow to get me hooked. I chose Everton. Was it the best choice? Who can say? Am I enjoying it? Hell yeah. Do I know how to truly evaluate a team? Hell no. I’m basically the baseball fan still stuck looking only at RBIs, pitcher wins, and batting average. Maybe I chose Everton to see how White Sox fans feel being the perpetual little brother living in Cubs/LFC shadows. Maybe I chose it just so I could have yet another reason to fight with Fels. You can never have too many of those. So take this with as many grains of salt as you’d like.

Last year there were three different Everton teams. The first third was getting their feet under them with their new manager Marco Silva whose defining features are a kryptonite level weakness to defending set pieces and wrist watches that are so large Flavor Flav wants to wear them around his neck. They showed some moderate success going 6-4-3. Then the middle of the season was absolutely abysmal as the team managed only 11 points going 3-2-8. It seemed Marco could be one and done. Yet the final third was one of hope and promise (6-3-3). It’s important to mention those final 12 include draws with Liverpool and Tottenham, two shutout victories against Chelsea and Arsenal and a complete dismantling of Man U at Goodison. They were close to claiming the final Europa spot but fell short to the surprising Wolves team. So which team shows up this year? The one that goes toe to toe with the top of the table or the one that loses to Millwall in the FA Cup?

The subtractions have been somewhat substantial, the most obvious being Idrissa Gueye moving to PSG. Gueye was a monster in the midfield proving himself to be one the leagues best tacklers. His ability to win the ball will be dearly missed. His lack of ability to maintain possession however shouldn’t be overlooked. Kurt Zouma is also gone leaving a massive hole at center-back which Everton looked to fill by signing Marcos Rojo… yikes. Lookman showed promise in brief flashes but evidently couldn’t be bothered in training.

Signing up Andre Gomes gives them great control in the midfield and an even better head of hair. Fabian Delph comes over from Man City where he wasn’t likely to get a chance to crack regular playing time in that stacked midfield. At 29 and a low transfer fee he’s a good potential low risk high reward player but don’t expect him to light the world on fire. Transfer window is still open while I’m writing this but the hopes of signing Zaha from Palace seem to be fading after their shocking dismissal of an offer involving Cenk Tosun (shocking, I know, but gotta love the balls of trying that move). Clearly the biggest addition was signing Moise Kean who at only 19 is already a dynamic and thrilling player who will add a desperately needed finishing touch to complement players like Richarlison and DCL.

There’s clearly hope that the toffees can build on a superb end to last season which could put them firmly in the top-six with a dare to dream shot at Champions League. There’s also just as likely a chance they hold down that 8th spot and fail to improve at all… or god forbid drop. Whichever way it goes, at least I’ll have Fels to yell at.

Leicester City: Oh Brendan Rodgers. There is a ton of young talent here, and he’s basically perfect for that as a manager. He’s also the manager who gets your team just good enough to break your heart, I think. Ayoze Perez is an intriguing signing to take up the Riyad Mahrez role that they never really filled last year. However they just sold their main centerback in Harry Maguire and his huge fucking head to United, and there probably isn’t time to fill that gap. Youri Tielamens is a stud in midfield though and will make up for a lot of shortcomings. James Maddison has been the next pretty young thing for a couple season and flashes coming good on that every so often. The fullbacks get forward effectively, so like any Rodgers team they’re going to be incredibly fun…at both ends.

Liverpool: The greatest team in the world…that’s probably going to finish second again. They’re decision to not sign anyone is actually understandable, because it’s hard to get quality players to show up to simply back up. There’s some new competition for places thanks to those returning from injury in Joe Gomez, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Adam Lallana (he said very optimistically as the biggest Lallana fan in the world), but they’re still doomed by any injury to the front three. The hope is that a more settled Keita and Ox being back will mean more goals from midfield, but that’s a bit flying on the wings of maybe. It’s hard to fathom that Robertson and Alexander-Arnold can be as good again as they were last year, and any dip in form or injury will have Gomez, Milner, or Henderson playing fullback unless some kid comes through from the heavens. They’re also going to be exhausted. The other worry is that it will be difficult for Virgil Van Dijk to be the best player in the world again (he was last season, and you can take your Messi fanboys and shove it), so he’ll need a touch more support and a touch more rest. If it’s going to take more than 97 points to win the title, you’d be hard-pressed to really believe that Liverpool can even match that total again. But then again, doubting Jurgen Klopp generally doesn’t work out.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – A’s vs. White Sox: Now Back To The Lecture At Hand

By Sam Fels 1009 0

vs.

RECORDS: A’s 65-50   White Sox 51-62

GAMETIMES: Friday 2:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: WGN Friday and Sunday, NBCSN Saturday

THE RIGHT GREEN AND GOLD: Athletics Nation

PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

A’s Spotlight

The A’s continue their rare week-long stay in Chicago as after an off-day they will decamp to the Southside for the weekend, after a perfectly even series at Wrigley that basically coin-flipped to the Cubs. Each had a blowout, and Monday’s tilt came down to a gust of wind/loud fart from the bleachers to keep Marcus Semien‘s game-winning homer in the park. The Sox meanwhile go from beating up on the remedial class in Detroit to playing a team with real stakes again, a transition that could cause whiplash in some.

Not much could have changed for the A’s in four days, obviously. They still have issues in the rotation, though Tanner Roark and his strike-heavy ways will try and change that again on Saturday. The Sox will see Mike Fiers, whom I will never believe is good but keeps putting up good numbers, including leading the league in batting average against when trailing in the count somehow. Is he the worst pitcher to have two no-hitters to his name? The A’s have two of the names in the discussion, with Homer Bailey still nursing the contusions and lacerations the Cubs put on him on Wednesday.

The pen took a couple bumps too, as Blake Treinen continued his season-long wander through the forest on Wednesday as well. Lou Trivino hasn’t seen last year’s heights either, and it’s mostly on what Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria, and especially Liam Hendriks can do. The A’s sit only a half-game behind the Rays for the second wildcard spot, and it feels like if they’re going to make up that game hinges on whether they can find another arm or two out of the pen to be a blackout, or if they can get some more help from the rotation than just five innings of not setting any fires (no pun intended nor welcomed). Again, they’re still hoping that A.J. Puk and/or Jesus Luzardo, two kids that will be in their rotation next year, can recover from injuries and provide help from somewhere in the season’s dying embers. When you’re Oakland, this is the kind of thing you do.

The lineup remains fine, though barely. Matt Chapman is in something of a swoon, with a wRC+ of 0 the past couple weeks. Semien is picking up the slack of late, and Mark Canha has chipped in, but this is not a bash-and-crash outfit. They score just enough, they catch just enough, and the pen generally holds the lid down even if it’s popping up and pulsating. They get through by the skin of their teeth.

For the Sox, it’s basically about maintaining a couple rolls. Reynaldo Lopez has an ERA under 3.00 since the break, and everyone is hoping this is his coming out party. He shut out the A’s over six innings last time he saw them, and while walks have been an issue his past two starts he’s been able to dodge the alarms. Still, the Sox would like to see him complete the sixth instead of just get there as he has the past couple outings. Giolito has found his dominating best in the last two starts as well after getting brained by the Twins. The Mets and Tigers aren’t exactly dynamic offenses, but at the moment neither are the A’s.

Tim Anderson and James McCann had great series in Detroit, and McCann especially needed it. An odd Friday matinee kicks it off, and starts a stretch where the Sox will see a lot of playoff contenders. The Astros are in after this, and they’ll see the Twins twice and Braves once before August is out. Fine test if nothing else.

Baseball

A’s Spotlight: Sounds Like Blake Treinen Ought To Do More Thinkin’…

By Sam Fels 1303 0

We write pretty extensively about the problems with counting on a bullpen from year to year, They’re just far too volatile, inexplicable, and weird to know exactly what you might get from one season to the next. There might not be a better example than Blake Treinen.

Last season, Treinen was the most valuable reliever in the game. More than Edwin Diaz, more than Josh Hader, anyone. He ran a WHIP well under 1.00, struck out nearly 12 hitters per nine, and ran close to a 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He racked up 38 saves to backstop the A’s to the coin-flip game, and anchored a unit that was the backbone to that team as all their starters basically ended up looking like something out Walking Dead.

This year he can’t get anyone out.

He’s lost his closer’s job to Liam Hendriks. His Ks are down by nearly a third, and he’s doubled his walk-rates. His homers-per-nine is up 5x from last year. He only gave up two homers all of last season, and this year he’s surrendered seven that have landed in nachos or beer out beyond the outfield wall. He’s already given up as many hits this year as he did last, and there’s still more than six weeks to go in the season.

So what happened?

It’s not as easy to pinpoint as you might think for such a precipitous fall. Treinen has lost a smidge of juice on his fastball, but it’s only down slightly less than one MPH and is still averaging more than 96 MPH. That’s more than enough to get things done. What he can’t seem to do is throw it for a strike as often, as his strike-percentage with that is down about five percentage points. And that might be due to getting a lot more arm-side run on it, which is making it harder to control:

To go along with that, his slider has lost sweep as well, losing an inch of horizontal movement. We’ve said it before, but even though that doesn’t sound like a lot it’s the difference between a whiff and something fouled off or the latter and solid contact. Last season, Treinen got half the swings against his slider to be whiffs. That’s down to 34% this year. Hitters could only manage to even foul it off a quarter of the time. That’s 40% now, which means more pitches, which means more looks, which means worse results. If you’re StatCast inclined, his slider’s spin-rate went from 2, 735 RPM to 2, 597 RPM this year. He’s even scrapped more often for a cutter, which hasn’t really gotten better results.

Was it workload? Treinen threw 80 innings last year, the first time he had ever crossed that threshold, though he did throw 75 the year before that. Some pitchers can back up 80 innings year-t0-year, but you’d have to say Treinen isn’t looking like one of them. Hell, Hader threw 80 innings as well last year, and while he’s still been very good this year, teams have been able to get to him at points, which they couldn’t last year.

Of course, Treinen could discover something this offseason, get his slider sweeping again, and be the dominant monster he was in ’18. That’s the thing with relievers. Or at 32 next year, perhaps his time in the sun is forever gone. For this year, he’s leaving the A’s pen a tad short, though Hendriks has picked up the slack and Yusmeiro Petit along with Joakim Soria have picked up the slack as set-up men.

You can always think you know what you have in a bullpen. But you never really do. Unless you spend gobs of money like the Yankees. That’s not really an option for the A’s, so they’ll just have to guess again next season.