Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Hockey

  • High On The Hog 2019-20 Season Preview: Versteeg & Company

    High On The Hog 2019-20 Season Preview: Versteeg & Company

    The Rockford IceHogs, the Blackhawks’ AHL affiliate, will soon be opening their 2019-20 season. The Flying Piglets of Winnebago County will take to the BMO Harris Bank Center in hopes of furthering the careers of Chicago’s prospects. I’m back for another season of bringing you my takes on the (Olive) garden party down Rockford way.

    Rockford went 35-31-4-6 last season, finishing seventh in the eight-team Central Division. My thoughts on the 2018-19 campaign can be found here. If you don’t have the time to read, here are the Cliffs Notes: The Hogs couldn’t score, so they missed the playoffs.

    After taking over for the promoted Jeremy Colliton in November, Derek King was officially named Rockford’s head coach this summer. The Blackhawks will measure King’s success in how he handles the organization’s young talent.

    In Rockford, winning takes a backseat to development. The Blackhawks have made this abundantly clear over the years in the way they have assembled the IceHogs roster. This year is no different.

    Actually, the landscape in Rockford is even more devoid of veteran presence than usual. Veterans like Peter Holland, Jordan Schroeder, Andreas Martinsen and Andrew Campbell weren’t re-signed by Chicago. Players like Anthony Louis and Luke Johnson were not tendered offers. Rockford elected not to re-sign popular winger William Pelletier or AHL vet Terry Broadhurst.

    This leaves a lot of openings for playing time. The bulk of it is going to go to the slew of prospects set to join the team. In terms of grizzled veterans, the cupboard is mostly bare. With one notable exception.

    The big name at the top of the roster (as well as this post) is two-time Stanley Cup winner Kris Versteeg. Let’s examine why he’s here. Versteeg, who spent last season in the KHL and SHL when he wasn’t injured, signed an AHL contract with the IceHogs back in April. Signing that early really surprised me, as usually a veteran like Versteeg would test free agency in hopes for some NHL ink later in the summer.

    Nothing has fallen off the 33-year-old winger so far in training camp. He was dutifully assigned to Rockford last week and will be among a handful of AHL signees to make the Hogs roster. There hasn’t been a captain named by the team the last two seasons. Whether King elects to make it official or not, consider that role to be Versteeg’s.

    The Blackhawks can’t bring him aboard for a third tour with Chicago unless he’s signed to an NHL contract. I have trouble envisioning that scene, though it certainly could happen at some point this season. I think that Versteeg is prepared to spend the full season in Rockford. By the way he’s spoken publicly, he seems pretty happy to be on the farm. How that time plays out depends on his health as well as his leadership abilities.

    “What leadership abilities?” comes the call from above.

    Well, Versteeg has been with seven NHL teams (eight including the Bruins, for whom he never played) and I don’t recall anyone ever putting a letter on his sweater. He does, however, have a 643 games of NHL experience and eight trips to the playoffs. It stands to reason that he is fully aware of his role in the scheme of things and can put his considerable experience to use in Rockford.

    The ceiling on this move: a fit and motivated Versteeg plays 60-plus games, puts up some respectable offensive numbers, mentors the piglets on and off the ice and helps draw a few curious fans into the BMO this winter. If the brass in the Hawks organization have another plan mapped out for Versteeg, I don’t see it.

    As for the remainder of the roster? Things won’t be set in stone for a couple of weeks, but lets take a look…

     

    Forwards

    Glad To Have You Back

    Rockford is not long on returning players at forward. The ones coming back each have something to prove.

    Dylan Sikura was Rockford’s Rookie of the Year, with 35 points (17 G, 18 A) in 46 games. The question for the organization is whether Sikura’s game can translate to NHL production.

    Matthew Highmore, spent most of 2018-19 out of commission after a shoulder injury in late October. He’ll be looking to rebound in his third season in Rockford. With Sikura, Highmore will be counted on early this season to provide steady scoring at the top of the lineup.

    Alexandre Fortin is in dire need of finding a finishing stroke as he enters his third season. Graham Knott and Nathan Noel are other players on the last year of their entry contracts.  Both may find ice time harder to come by as new prospects flood the roster.

    Jacob Nilsson was placed on waivers by Chicago Sunday. Provided he clears, the IceHogs get last season’s MVP back in the fold. He was solid at both ends in his rookie season and will be a key player on special teams for Rockford.

     

    Welcome To Winnebago County

    King’s roster will be brimming with new faces up front. Mackenzie Entwistle, Brandon Hagel, Reece Johnson, Philipp Kurashev, Tim Soderlund, and Mikael Hakkarainen will be entering their rookie campaigns when the season begins.

    The IceHogs will likely see several new acquisitions by the organization in action for at least part of the 2019-20 season. John Quenneville is a pickup from New Jersey who has 50-point potential in a full season of AHL play. He was a point a game player with Binghamton last year with 39 (18 G, 21 A) in 37 games.

    A player like Aleksi Saarela could put up big offensive numbers if he winds up in Rockford with the proper mindset. Saarela had 30 goals for Charlotte last season, but it appears that he feels he belongs on an NHL roster. That could be an issue if Saarela comes to Rockford and sulks.

    Several additional players should be coming down from Chicago once training camp winds down. Waiver-exempt players like Anton Wedin, Alexander Nylander or Dominik Kubalik could join a veteran or two who passes through waivers to bolster the Hogs roster.

     

    AHL Deals

    In addition to Versteeg, the IceHogs signed five other forwards to AHL contracts. Tyler Sikura, the MVP of the 2017-18 Hogs, is back on an AHL deal following seven-goals, twelve assists in 50 games for Rockford last season.

    Sikura the Elder was hampered by a thumb injury but should be a regular in King’s lineup. Other than Nick Moutrey, who adds some bottom-six muscle, don’t expect the other Hogs signings to be at the BMO all that much.

    That includes former 2014 Hawks draft picks Liam Coughlin (fifth round), who signed an AHL contract after finishing his college career at Vermont, and Jack Ramsey (seventh round), who signed after four years at Minnesota.

    Matthew Thompson had 50 points (21 G, 29 A) for the Indy Fuel last season and figures to be in Indy for most of 2019-20.

     

    Defense

    The few returning players at defense are led by Lucas Carlsson and Dennis Gilbert.

    Carlsson was Rockford’s Defenseman of the Year after a 33-point (9 G, 24 A) rookie season.

    Gilbert was the IceHogs most consistently physical presence most nights. He’ll be looking to find a bit more offense in his game in his sophomore season, totaling 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 2018-19. Joni Tuulola (4 G, 10 A in 52 games) could be Rockford ‘s only other returning player on defense.

    Chicago did not ink a veteran defenseman to mentor the blue line, as was the case with with Andrew Campbell last year. The Blackhawks did sign Philip Holm to a two-way deal. Holm, who is currently going through waivers, spent last season in the KHL and has just one career NHL game to his credit.

    Provided he doesn’t make the Blackhawks out of camp, expect Adam Boqvist to lead the host of rookie piglets. Nicolas Beaudin and Chad Krys are also new faces who should inject some excitement.

    Rockford re-signed Josh McArdle to an AHL contract and also secured the services of Dmitry Osipov and Jake Ryczek. McArdle (19 games) and Osipov (eight games) both saw time with the IceHogs and will find themselves in the lineup when not in the ECHL with Indy.

    Ryczek, a seventh-round pick by Chicago in the 2016 NHL Draft, spent most of last season in the QMJHL with Halifax.

     

    Goalie

    It’s in this area that Rockford can enter the season with a measure of confidence. If things break Chicago’s way health-wise (keep ’em crossed), then the IceHogs may have one of the top goalie tandems in the AHL.

    Collin Delia is coming off a season in which he was ninth in the league with a 2.48 GAA. His .922 save percentage was second in the league among qualified net men. As good as Delia has been for the Hogs, the other half of the goalie picture could wind up to be even better.

    Kevin Lankinen was the odd man out for much of last season but played very well for Rockford in the latter stages of the 2018-19 campaign. He then followed up his rookie season in the AHL with an outstanding performance to win a gold medal with Finland at the World Championships.

    I would expect the organization to balance the minutes in net, though either Delia or Lankinen should be able to handle full-time work in Rockford if need be. In a best-case scenario, both will man the crease 35-40 times for the IceHogs. If that doesn’t come to fruition, Rockford has two players under AHL deals.

    Matt Tomkins enters his third year as a Rockford signing, having spent most of last year with Indy. He was up in Rockford briefly but did not appear in a game with the Hogs. Chase Marchand was signed by Rockford and will likely be with the Fuel all season.

     

    The Schedule

    Division wins are going to make the difference for the IceHogs; 66 of the 76 games on Rockford’s schedule are within the confines of the AHL’s Central Division.

    Rockford have two games each with Laval, Belleville and Toronto and another four with Cleveland. The IceHogs non-division games are all against Eastern Conference teams; Rockford will not play a game against a Pacific Division opponent this season…unless it’s in the Western Conference Final.

    As usual, besting the neighbors will be vital. The piglets will attempt to wrest the vaunted Illinois Lottery Cup from the Chicago Wolves. Rockford’s interstate rivals took the grail for the third consecutive season last spring; despite each team winning six of the twelve season contests, the Wolves earned more points in those games.

    The Hogs also have an even dozen with Milwaukee again this season, though Rockford won’t see the Ads until December 7 at the BMO. The IceHogs square off with Grand Rapids ten times and have eight apiece with Iowa, Manitoba, San Antonio and Texas.

    The schedule is fairly balanced throughout the season. Rockford has 24 home dates out of its first 46 games, then is at home in 14 of its final 30 games. The Hogs have a five-game home stand Oct. 30-Nov. 8 and a six-straight at home Jan. 25-Feb. 8. They have a five-game road trip at the end of February. Otherwise, there are no more than three consecutive games either home or away.

     

    So…How’s This Team Gonna Do?

    That, friends, is a question I’ll set about answering when the roster is more concrete. The Hogs kick off the season in Iowa October 4; I’ll be back with more thoughts on the upcoming season before then.

    Follow me on twitter @JonFromi throughout the season as I offer updates and musings on the scene in Rockford.

     

     

     

  • Preseason Game #4 – Bruins 2, Hawks 3 – Twist it Around Till You Find a Solution

    Preseason Game #4 – Bruins 2, Hawks 3 – Twist it Around Till You Find a Solution

    The Blackhawks went with an actually serious lineup tonight, not just a collection of children and randos fighting for a spot. No, tonight’s roster was in theory an actual version of the team we’ll see this season…while their opponent was a collection of children and randos and, for some reason, also Charlie McAvoy. And that’s fine, the Bruins may have things to figure out and it’s still the stupid preseason, but it was a little concerning to see our supposedly legit lineup give up 41 shots and a short-handed goal to this flotsam. Let’s take a look:

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    –The Hawks looked good at the start of the game, for real. It was nearly halfway through the first before they gave up any shots, Dylan Strome scored on a power play, and they were still ahead in shots when that period ended, which felt like the first time they’ve done that in this preseason. Granted the PPG was as much luck as it was skill with Maxime Lagace fumbling it a bit which allowed Strome to sneak it in, but so what? Unfortunately the Hawks didn’t really keep that momentum going and whether it’s rust or unfamiliarity or just plain crappiness, there were plenty of mistakes to follow.

    –What kinds of mistakes? Olli Maatta totally whiffing on a shot when the Hawks were setting up a play in the Bruins zone, Nylander with a shitty pass that Toews couldn’t corral which ended a 2-on-1 possibility, Slater Koekkoek watching pucks leap over his stick and dribbling into the neutral zone…there were plenty to go around. Individually none of them were drastic but in total they prevented the Hawks from creating or capitalizing on opportunities that may have kept this bunch of nobodies from even making it a game.

    –Let’s also talk about Robin Lehner. First, he looked better than he did in the first half of whatever that game was that I watched a couple days ago. And he did make a number of impressive saves tonight. But, a lot of them were impressive because he wasn’t controlling rebounds. If you’re flailing in desperation it’s because you’re not in control, and yes it looks cool in the moment, but if he had been able to prevent rebounds he wouldn’t have had to make second and third saves that were highlight-reel-worthy. Again, I know it’s the preseason and there’s no reason to clutch pearls, but while Lehner’s positioning is excellent, if he’s giving up huge rebounds against real teams, not preseason jamokes, these multiple chances will become a problem.

    –Kane basically scored the game-winner off his face. There are many, many jokes in that statement.

    –Anton Wedin looked decent as the 3C, and he had what I will reluctantly call good chemistry with Brandon Saad. I say reluctantly because, chemistry? In one preseason game? It doesn’t seem reliable, but I don’t have a better way of describing it (I’ve been drinking, shut up). They had good puck movement and Saad’s goal was off textbook give-and-go passing from Wedin. I guess Kampf will have some competition for that third-line center role? It’s so hard to say; Wedin could crap the bed or they’ll send him down despite tonight’s performance—who knows. But if we’re going to have a herd of bottom-six guys, let’s at least find the least shitty options.

    –There are still some serious issues with this defense. As I mentioned, giving up over 40 shots to a bunch of nobodies is concerning, and the tying short-handed goal was brought to you by Gustafsson misplaying it and getting burned by something named Par Lindholm. Gus and Keith managed only a 29 and 36 CF%, respectively. The rest of the defense was above water, but I kid you not at one point in the first period Connor Murphy was skating with Koekkoek like a service animal ensuring he was soothed and OK. It wasn’t nightmarish, but it wasn’t instilling much confidence, either.

    But they beat a bunch of nobodies! Onto the Caps stateside this Wednesday and then their European adventure begins. Onward and upward…

     

     

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Toronto Maple Leafs

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Toronto Maple Leafs

    The only team that matters. Don’t believe it, just ask them. The Leafs got Mitch Marner into the fold before the season, which was something of a minor upset. They’re going into the season with a better defense than they did last year, now a full year of Jake Muzzin, along with Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci arriving this summer (the latter already causing hilarious furor). And yet, this collection of players still doesn’t have a playoff series win to its name. The thinking is that if they get the first a whole bunch more will follow. Problem with that is they’re still in the same division with Tampa and Boston. And we know if they don’t get past them, it’ll be a national disaster and you all have to have a week of mourning. Is this the time? Could be, but it’s no guarantee.

    2018-2019

    46-28-8  100 points (3rd in Atlantic, out in 1st round)

    3.49 GF/G (4th)  3.04 GA/G (20th) +37 GD

    51.7 CF% (8th)  51.7 xGF% (10th)

    21.8 PP% (8th)  79.9 PK% (17th)

    Goalies: So here’s the thing. The Leafs can dress up their changes, acquisitions, and experience gained all they want, but they’re still counting on Freddie Andersen. And Freddie Anderson is the very definition of “good enough to break your heart.” It’s what he does. It’s what he’s always done. He’s certainly more than enough to rack up points in the regular season, especially when you score a ton of goals as the Leafs do. And he wasn’t even bad in the playoffs last year, with a .922 SV% in the series against Boston. But it wasn’t enough in Game 7. It never is. That’s what happens. And the Leafs seem to think they can break through the same wall this time. They don’t have a good enough defense to shield him. They need Freddie to make the saves. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a team that just scores its way through four rounds. Freddie has yet to do it. I’m not betting on him to do it now.

    Anyway, Michael Hutchinson is backing him up. There’s not enough time for all that I want… to say about him.

    Defense: It’s new look, and if it doesn’t work everyone here is a free agent after the season except LGBTQ spokesman Morgan Rielly. You would think that would create some urgency, which could help. I’m bigger on Tyson Barrie than most, and provides someone who can get the puck up himself or to the forwards better than anyone they had last season save Rielly. Cody Ceci is already causing Alka-Seltzer sales to go up in Ontario, as everyone expects Mike Babcock to use him way too often. They’ll get a full season of Muzzin, who was surprisingly good last year after arriving from LA. But beyond those four it is ugly, which is probably where the Ceci fears are springing from. Martin Marincin, Justin Holl, The Other Schmaltz, Ben Harpur, you don’t want any of these idiots skating more than 10 minutes a night. Which might leave the top four exposed and exhausted by the time the games really count.

    Forwards: If any unit can counteract what the defense can’t do, it’s this forward group. Everyone’s locked in now, so they don’t have that hanging over them. There’s still no team rolling out a better top six than this, with Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen, and whatever other jokers you want to pair with them. Nylander should rebound after getting a full training camp and having Marner take all the recent-signee pressure off of him. They’ve lost some depth in trading Nazem Kadri for Barrie, and Kadri did a lot more for this team than people realize.

    There isn’t anyone around to take up that role, and you don’t want either of Tavares or Matthews to do it. Nick Shore? Nic Petan? Those are huge steps down from Kadri, who was a shutdown center who could also score a lot. Nobody is going to replace him on either side of that ledger, and the Leafs downfall might be either having some top line go off on them in the playoffs (again) or having to use Matthews to fight fire with fire and losing his production. It’s an issue.

    It’s not much different on the wings. where only Andreas Johansson looks like a useful bottom-six piece. Jason Spezza is dead. They’ll be hunting depth via trade.

    Prediction: With all the pieces locked in now, one wonders how much patience they’ll have under Mike Babcock again. He’s not a soft sort to play for, and now the Leafs have made their commitments. What happens when Marner and Matthews start rolling their eyes at Babs in January or December even? That’s one iceberg they’ll have to avoid, and it might help that Babs is going to have to play his top six a ton. But if Ceci ends up being a disaster, there’s not much anyone can do about the defense.

    And there’s not much Babs can do about Andersen, either. There’s more than enough talent here than make a run…and there’s enough holes to eat it in the first round to any of Tampa or Boston or any surprise like Montreal or Florida as well. Whatever it ends up being, there’ll be far more noise than is warranted.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

     

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Tampa Bay Lightning

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Tampa Bay Lightning

    Whoops.

    That ended up being the theme for the Bolts last season. They took a historically good season and a historically good individual season from Nikita Kucherov and dumped in straight into the toilet like tainted Taco Bell in four games. In some ways, it makes them more unique than if they’d just won the Cup. But that will be of little solace to them and their fans. Which makes this season something of a revenge tour. Most likely, they’ll dial back in the regular season a touch, which should be still more than good enough to win this division. And no judgements can be made until the postseason starts. But the thing with the Lightning is they don’t have some record of being playoff chokers. They’ve been to the conference final twice, a Final once all in the last four seasons. Perhaps they should have beaten the Caps in that conference final, with a Game 7 at home, but it was hardly the magnitude of an upset that last year was. They may be running out of chances.

    2018-2019

    62-16-4  128 points (1st in Metro, lost in 1st round)

    3.89 GF/G (1st)  2.80 GA/G (7th)  +72 GD

    51.5 CF% (9th)  52.6 xGF% (8th)

    29.2 PP% (1st)  85.0 PK% (1st)

    Goalies: A microcosm of the entire team, no opinions are going to be formed about Andrei Vasilevskiy in the regular season. We know he’s almost certainly going to put up Vezina-numbers then. He’s been over .920 in both of his seasons as starter, and .925 at evens. Unless something truly broke in the playoffs, the Lightning have no questions here.

    But when April rolls around, so do all those questions. Vas-manian Devil here was simply awful in the first round, putting up an .856 over four games against Columbus. No, he didn’t have a lot of help, but when the Lightning needed a save, he didn’t provide one. This followed him somewhat falling apart in that Game 7 the previous season, so we know there are gremlins jumping around his skull in the spring. And that label dogs you until you prove it untrue. Vas is going to have to wait six months to make things right.

    He’ll be backed up by Curtis McElhinney, who is about as solid in that role as you can ask. He had a brief hot streak with the Canes last year before ceding to Peter Mrazek, and was solid as a backup in Toronto the previous two seasons to the point where the unwashed rabble amongst Leafs fans (read: all of them) were pining for him last season. The Lightning won’t want to turn things over to him for too long a stretch if something happens to Vasilevskiy, but he certainly can get them out of 20-25 games.

    Defense: What might be most amazing about the Lightning’s season last year is that this defense isn’t all that impressive. And it’s still not. Victor Hedman is one of the best around and certainly cures a lot of ills. But Anton Stralman started to age last year, and they replaced him this time around with a couple fliers in Kevin Shattenkirk and Luke Schenn. You could see where in heavily sheltered shift, and the Bolts can do that for him, Kirk ShattenKevin could be a find. Mikhail Sergachev had a rough go in the playoffs, but still has all the promise in the world and should get second-pairing time now.

    Erik Cernak‘s play landed Slater Koekkoek here, so you can thank him for that. But Braydon Coburn is still here for reasons no one can explain. Ryan McDonagh is past it too, though Hedman covers up for a lot of that. You know Rutta and Schenn suck deep pond scum. When they were put under heavy attack last year by the Jackets, you saw what happened. They’ll need a renaissance from Shattenkirk and real steps forward from Sergachev and Cernak. If they don’t get those, they’ll have to go looking.

    Forwards: Then again, it might not matter thanks to this group. They still need to cram in Brayden Point to their cap situation, as he remains unsigned. Until he is, they’ll just have to find a way to make do with Steven Stamkos, Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson (high atop our wanted list for the Hawks), Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli, and Mathieu Joseph. How will they ever manage?

    The Bolts lit up the scoreboard on the power play and at evens, and with Stamkos and Kucherov on opposite wings there’s no reason the PP won’t go pinball noises again. There’s just little answer for them, especially with Hedman up top. It’s hard to match this depth, whenever Point gets back into the fold. They could ice just the forwards and Vasilevskiy and probably still be a playoff team. Hell, they should try a 4F-1D lineup at all times just to see what happens.

    Predictions: If you got odds on this team to win the Cup, you should take them. I don’t think last season is anything other than a strange anomaly, and the only thing that could derail them again before the conference final is if Vasilevskiy truly does see ghosts in the postseason. Yeah, the defense is not special, but it’s got three puck-movers that it needs and all it really has to do is get the puck up to the forwards and say, “Go do shit.” And this forward group is still otherworldly. Is Kucherov going to go for 128 points again? No, probably not. But he doesn’t have to. This team, barring injury or goalies going inside-out, can sleepwalk to 110 points and the Atlantic title again. Any question about them is in the playoffs, and again, this isn’t a team that has a track record of throwing up on itself when it counts. That feels like a one-off. All systems go here.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

     

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Patrick Kane

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Patrick Kane

    Patrick Kane is good at hockey. I am not really sure what more we should say about this guy. He’s been the best forward on this team for more than a decade and the best player for a few years, since Duncan Keith‘s mileage caught up to him. But you know all this. I’m not gonna say much in here that will surprise you. Let’s just do it.

    2018-19 Stats

    81 GP – 44 G – 66 A – 110 P

    48.86 CF% (-0.72 CF% Rel) – 64.01 oZS%

    44.94 xGF% (-1.32 xGF% Rel)

    Avg. TOI: 22:28

    A Brief History: In some ways it just about flew under the radar, largely because the Blackhawks had a terrible blue line and a CPR dummy in the crease when Crawford was hurt, but Patrick Kane had the best season of his career in 2018-19. His 110 points were four more than his previous high of 106 in his Hart winning 2015-16 season. Four points doesn’t feel like a lot, but the difference between 106 and 110 is probably a bit more significant than, say, 40 and 44. There is a level of dominance that Kane attained last year that we had previously seen, but it had been three years and we weren’t sure we’d see it again. Then he did it again, in his age-30 season. The guy might be a huge piece of shit, but he’s pretty much undoubtedly the best hockey player you or I will ever see suit up for this team in our lifetimes.

    It Was the Best of Times: Realistically, it’s hard to expect Kane to be better than he was last year. Give that he turns 31 this November, I’d say the best case scenario for Kane and the Hawks is that he just plays at that same level again. This team has addressed the blue line (at least on paper) and the crease issues that resulted in his historic 2018-19 being wasted, and it’s reasonable to expect that players like Top Cat and Strome will improve this year and as such take some pressure off Kane. He can give the Hawks 100-ish points, give or take a few, that’s the ideal outcome here.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: Being 31 catches up to Kane doesn’t  quickly, and his hands and feet are not even close to as quick as they once were. The vision and feel for the game are still there, because those things will never just go away, but Kane’s body just doesn’t cooperate at the level he’d like and as such the production falls off a bit. This all sounds dramatic, but I don’t think it would happen to the tune of him suddenly becoming a *bad* player, but just that he would be more in the 60-70 point range at season’s end. He did have just 76 points in 82 games in ’17-18, so it’s not like this would be appear as much of a fall-off overall, but that was his second lowest shooting percentage of his career, and the Hawks didn’t have much forward group to help in then. They do now. Anything less than 75 points from Kane this year would be a bad outcome.

    Prediction: Kane continues his dominance, and with Cat and Strome taking the step forward that we wanted from Mitchell Trubisky but aren’t getting (I am sensitive about it, okay), his level of production does not fall off very much and finishes the year with 45 goals and 108 points. The Hawks make the playoffs and Kane finishes second in scoring, behind only Connor McDavid of the Oilers who miss the playoffs obviously, so Kane wins another Hart. He wills the Hawks to the playoffs, where they get railroaded in the first round.

    Stats from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick

    Previous Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

    Ryan Carpenter

    Alex DeBrincat

    David Kampf

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Ottawa Senators

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Ottawa Senators

    They blow chunks.

    Let’s not waste anymore time on this.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews: David Kampf

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews: David Kampf

    David Kampf is not a sexy player in any sense of the word—not in the general sense of a flashy player nor in the actual definition, see picture above as evidence—but he’s one of the Hawks’ only options for a defensive-minded center. He’s undeniably a bottom-six guy, but if he can flourish in a third-line role, so be it. He may not be Marcus Kruger when he was at his peak, but we’ll have to deal with what we have. Let’s take a look:

    2018-19 Stats

    63 GP – 4 G – 15 A – 19 P

    49.4 CF% (0.56 CF% Rel) – 36.4 oZS%

    48.6 xGF% (4.85 xGF% Rel)

    Avg. TOI: 13:55

    A Brief History: Speaking of Marcus Kruger, Kampf was basically groomed to be Kruger 2.0 last year since the actual 2.0 version of Kruger the Blackhawk was a disappointment (sequels always are, and yet they just won’t learn). Kampf centered the third line most of the time, taking over 60% of his zone starts in his own end, and he had a month-long stint on IR with a broken foot. The Hawks pretty much sucked during his absence, but then again, they pretty much sucked a lot, including when he was around. They re-signed him at a bargain price of $1 million a year for two years, so at least they’re not repeating the Artem Anisimov mistake and overpaying for a 3C/4C.

    It Was the Best of Times: Ideally Kampf grows into being a shutdown center and a component of a not-vomit-inducing penalty kill unit. You could see him with Drake Caggiula or maybe with his elder version Ryan Carpenter, where they do the Spiderman meme and one is on the wing and the other is at center. Or, maybe Brandon Saad ends up back on the third line (kinda feels like when, not if, with the only question being duration), or whatever other jamoke from the collection they got going will slot in.

    If Kampf can adequately handle dungeon starts and improve his possession to being above water, we’ll be satisfied. If he can improve his scoring we’ll be downright pleased. If he can help the PK be anywhere close to functional we may even be happy (no we won’t).

    It Was the Blurst of Times: Kampf remains the definition of “a guy” and contributes little other than literally taking up space. He sucks on the PK yet Colliton has few other options so we’re stuck watching him there. And, he’s offensively useless and the Hawks have no one better to replace him with and/or can’t include him as an extra piece in a trade before the deadline. That’s a pretty bleak picture. Given the amount of jamokes I just mentioned, I imagine SOMEONE could take Kampf’s spot and he would disappear to the land of wind and ghosts unless we can trade him.

    Prediction: Kampf will likely fall somewhere between the best- and worst-case scenarios just outlined (wow, there’s some hard-hitting analysis, no?). He’s not going to become some elite scorer or anything else other than “a guy,” but he will be a decent guy. Young, cheap, and with a defined role that he only needs to meet, not some lofty position he must reinvent himself to achieve, Kampf will be reliable in his own zone, fairly uninspired in terms of scoring, and not the dregs of the bottom six.

    All stats from Hockey Reference and Corsica Hockey

  • Preseason Game #3 – Calm as Cookies and Cream, So It Seems – Hawks 2, Wings 1

    Preseason Game #3 – Calm as Cookies and Cream, So It Seems – Hawks 2, Wings 1

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    A ho-hum affair in which the Chicago Blackhawks kicked the shit out of the Wings in just about every way except the score. We’ll do a quick clean up, since I’m in preseason drinking form.

    – Alex Nylander is clearly going to get every chance to make Stan Bowman look like not a moron. Tonight saw him with three good plays and one not so good one. First, the three good ones. In the first period, near his own blue line, Nylander dropped a good backhand pass to a streaking Toews, who nearly peeled away for a breakaway. Second, also in the first, he made a good drop pass to Keith for a nice setup that didn’t really go anywhere. Third, he made a subtle pick play in the second period that freed Kane to hit Keith on his slapper goal. All in all, not bad.

    But Nylander completely boofed a wide-open opportunity. With Toews crashing the slot with possession east to west, Nylander had the near post yawning. Toews slipped a pass to the area Nylander was supposed to be in, but Nylander wasn’t at all ready. This is a perfect example of Nylander loafing when the puck isn’t on his stick. If he stays engaged on the play, it’s an easy goal. I truly hope he gets that out of his system soon.

    Aside from that, Nylander was perimetery all night, but you wouldn’t know it with Eddie O lavishing praise on him for not shitting his pants. He’s the Jonah Falcon of the preseason so far.

    – Dominik Kubalik is probably going to be good, even if his last 40 minutes were uninspiring. In the first, he had a nifty pass to a wide-open Saad in the low slot (which Saad couldn’t pot, because this is how it’s always gonna go) after some great pressure along the near corner from Kampf. I’d like to see Colliton roll the dice and put him with Kane and Toews just to take advantage of that wicked shot he’s got.

    – If you are under 18, please don’t watch this video of Adam Boqvist.

    He was quiet otherwise, but goddamn. If that translates at all to the NHL, all of our wailing and gnashing of teeth about this blue line may end up in the ether. Yes, he has a ton of work to do in his own end. But you can live with some bed wetting if that’s the offense you’re gonna get. Fuck, they’re gonna give Gus 6×6, and he doesn’t do shit like this.

    – Crow didn’t get hurt and looked good doing it.

    – Dennis Gilbert getting into a preseason fight was as unnecessary as a Betamax of your own conception.

    – Based on Pat and Eddie’s coverage, we can safely state that the scoreboard was the best off-season acquisition.

    – Maatta and Seabrook were paired tonight. They looked very good against the Grand Rapid Griffins, which was a serious question going into the game, which is exactly what you want from your presumptive second pairing.

    Everyone else is either a lock on this team or AHL fodder, though I’d be surprised if Gilbert didn’t come up for air at some point.

    Onward.

    Booze du Jour: Bulleit bourbon and Miller High Life

    Line of the Night: “Unlike the NFL, these guys wanna get their reps.” –Eddie O in mid-season form on players playing in the preseason.

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Montreal Canadiens

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Montreal Canadiens

    Did you know the Habs finished two points out of a playoff spot last year? I sure didn’t. Considering all the noise they make and all the complaining they do that you have to pay attention to them because of HISTORY and CULTURE (that being that they speak the French language like they’ve had an aluminum bat taken to their cranium, I guess), that’s probably the quietest Canadiens season in history. They certainly are more loud when they just plain suck because of what a travesty of justice that is. But when they simply fade into the background…well, that’s rare. We should cherish it. And it could happen again.

    2018-2019

    44-30-8 96 points (4th in Atlantic)

    3.00 GF/G (14th)  2.88 GA/G (13th)  +10 GD

    54.4 CF% (3rd)  54.6 xGF% (3rd)

    13.2 PP% (30th)  80.9 PK% (13th)

    Goalies: As it has been, as it will be, Carey Price takes the torture chamber that is the Montreal crease. It all begins and ends with him, which means any talking point about the Habs in La Belle Province has a 75% chance of being about him. At this point he must be used to it or totally deaf. Price was healthy last year, which was something of an upset, and he was…fine? A .918 in last year’s heightened scoring environment is better than it originally looks, but not up to the standard Price himself has set. It was also the second consecutive season he wasn’t up above .920, which is what the Habs are paying for with the $10M a year Price gets from here until AOC is on her second term in the White House.

    At 32, there’s little to no reason to think Price is past it, other than maybe the higher-than-usual odometer reading thanks to his debut at a precocious age. The days of him putting up .930+ SV%s are over, but the Canadiens shouldn’t need that either. Price should be around .920 minimum, and another sustained season of health could see him creep up to .925 or higher which gets him back in the Vezina discussion, a place he used to call home. There are few goalies you’d take ahead of him if you needed to have a game to save your dog, that’s for sure, despite Pat Foley’s and drunken Hawks fan declarations that Corey Crawford is better.

    Backing him up will be Keith Kinkaid, which as a backup is about as solid as you can get. He bailed out Corey Schneider in New Jersey for a couple years when Schneider’s body was turning into decommissioned flubber, though he himself was on one last year at .891. The two years before that were .913 and .916 though, and he definitely gives you representative-plus goaltending from the #2 spot. This is just about a question mark-less position for the Habs. Which they need, because everywhere else has more than a few.

    Defense: As we tour the skaters of Montreal, you’ll notice they don’t have a frontline player in either spot. There’s no genuine top-pairing defensemen here, and really no genuine top line forward either. They are going to try and do it with faded stars, foot soldiers, or didn’t-quite-get-theres. I’m contractually obligated to tell you they think Shea Weber is still a top man, but injuries and time have eroded whatever mobility he had. Stand him up and give him time and he still has a doomsday gun of a shot, but that didn’t help their anemic power play much last year in the rare times he was actually upright.

    They signed Ben Chiarot from Winnipeg, except no one has ever pointed out whatever it was Chiarot did with the Jets that’s supposed to make me shorts get tight. Jeff Petry and Brett Kulak are serviceable puck-movers down the lineup, and Jordie Benn has a beard. Victor Mete had a rough go in his first full go-around in the league but is the real promise on the squad here, if Claude Julien doesn’t have him racked in Victoria Square.

    There’s just not that much special here, which makes their glittering metrics all the more shocking. The forwards once again will have to do most of the work in transition, which affects how much they can finish, as you’ll see…

    Forwards: Again, no frontline talent. The Canadiens would love to argue that Max Domi is, but that would be the definition of pissing in my ear. He’s fine, he’s a good rhythm guitarist but not a lead. Jonathan Drouin has had every chance in the world now to prove all the hype he got and bed-wetting he did were worth it, and he hasn’t yet. Brendan Gallagher is a highly effective forechecker/net front pest/garbage-goal getter, but that’s it. Domi led this team with 72 points. Tomas Tatar was the second-leading scorer. When Tomas Tatar is among your leading scorers, that makes you the Red Wings of four or five years ago. And where did that get them? Face in the dirt, that’s what.

    And the Habs haven’t really done anything to improve it this year. Ryan Poehling looks sure to be on the team, and Nick Suzuki just might, but to expect them to carry the flag…er, torch…sorry, hate to insult your tiring hands you pompous fuckwits, is beyond ambitious. We love Phillip Danault around here, but he’s a checking center who should chip in scoring. Not the engine of your second line. That’s what he has to be on this team.

    The hope would be that Jesperi Kotkaniemi has an offensive leap in him at 20 to go along with his already stellar 200-foot game. And maybe he does, but again, that’s pinning hopes on a 20-year-old.

    Still, as mentioned above, the Habs were able to carry some very impressive underlying numbers last year. They did that because even if the forwards aren’t blessed with dash and finish, they are with speed. All four lines here can really go, so they can pressure everywhere on the ice, help out their d-men deep in their zone and still get up to the offensive end. That leaves them pretty tired, and it doesn’t do a lot when you’re creating attempts and chances that you don’t have a lot of finish to make count. But if they can match those metrics again and get a slice of luck, maybe they could find the extra points they need to make the playoffs.

    Prediction: They’re in the wrong division. It’s hard to see where they’re going to make up ground on any of Toronto, Boston, or Tampa, which leaves them scrapping for a wildcard. Luckily, there isn’t much impressive in the other division, and Columbus’s spot is certainly going to be marked available. Any bump up from Price, or an unforeseen SH% spike from a forward or two and the Habs could get there. Or their aging defense can’t be held up by Price, and the forwards can’t do most of the work again and they’ll miss by a lot.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

  • NHLPA Makes Owners Smile, Which Should Have Them Nervous

    NHLPA Makes Owners Smile, Which Should Have Them Nervous

    If you’re the NHLPA, or any member in it, headlines like this shouldn’t exactly settle well:

    Now, there may have been a time in my life where I truly believed that all that meant was that everyone was happy, everyone realized the damage that could be done by yet another work stoppage, and that everyone was interested in growing the game together. That was a wonderful time in my life. I work really hard to get back there, even though I know the road there is pretty much impossible to navigate and pass. It’s gone forever, and all that’s left is this broken down old man (yes, Shawshank was on late last night on IFC. Why do you ask?)

    But when a billionaire is smiling and excited…well, one, flee the fucking room if you’re a woman, and two, the only other thing that gets them excited is the thought of more money. Seriously, that’s the only way their heart pumps, and this is how you get the state of the country today. Now again, maybe they’re just happy they can continue making money at this pace without a work stoppage, but you all know I’m more suspicious than that. I’ve been through this once or twice.

    There definitely seems to be an element of relief in this, which means that the owners A) genuinely feared a strike by the players, B) feel like they gained something. Which means they had something to lose, which means the NHLPA actually had some leverage.

    And we know what that leverage was. There’s an expansion franchise coming on the books in two seasons, which meant a strike the season before that carried over would have put at risk their start date. There’s also a new TV deal coming the season after that, which means talks for that start relatively soon, and you wouldn’t exactly be dealing with a position of strength with NBC or ESPN or Fox or wherever this goes if you weren’t playing games or a large threat of not playing games was hanging over the talks.

    Now that said, this is almost certainly what the players were looking at. They want that TV deal to be bonanza too, or as close as hockey can get to a bonanza, and then grab more of the booty for themselves. That’s fair. They erred in not somehow including expansion fees into the last CBA as part of shared revenue (perhaps placated by the 25 extra jobs), and maybe that’s something they could have come after if they’d walked off the job. Don’t smirk, because the owners came after back-diving contracts in the last CBA that used to be legal, so we know retroactive action is on the table.

    Maybe the TV deal will be much bigger, and maybe the tweaks the PA and the owners are working toward has enough included for the players with that TV deal that they feel they shouldn’t get in the way. That’s what we can’t know.

    LeBrun in this piece says the two sides could hammer out an extension with tweaks to the CBA in the coming months, but I’ll believe that when I see it. The owners now don’t have any urgency and the players discarded the one card they have. While the players say their one bitch is escrow, I find that hard to believe and also don’t see a way around it. It also only really affects players up the scale on the payroll, though no one likes getting shit taken out of their paycheck (even when it’s for the things that everyone needs, but that’s another discussion).

    Maybe the players have a plan to just go to a fixed amount that the salary cap is calculated from, instead of a formula that can change from year-to-year or month-to-month even. Maybe they’ve gotten more creative. Still, when you have smiling owners you know something is bad. And while the players may think they have pulled off a real coup here by letting the US TV deal play out unscathed, and they’ll just get a bigger slice simply because, it seems like they’ve forgotten whom they are dealing with here.

    And we’re still talking about a system that has multiple restricted free agents waiting for contracts, who are the ones who are going to carry this league. That’s proof the system isn’t working correctly, and also proof that no matter what they say, owners will continue to spend money to win (at least most of them), if only to the cap. Perhaps they should have played on that more?

    -There is one aspect of escrow the players take up that I’m not convinced I agree with. You can see it here or here. It’s this idea espoused by Jonathan Toews and others that the players have no responsibility in growing or marketing the game. I just can’t get there.

    In one aspect, hockey players have created the unwritten rules or culture that individuality is bad or that anyone who stands out in a dressing room is a problem. Call it the “PK Subban Clause.” (include the racial undertones if you want or not) It’s the players who enforce this idea that everyone has to be the same and completely dull, and that anything with flash and sizzle is to be stamped out and discouraged from ever starting.

    Except it’s flash and sizzle that sells, and perhaps if more players had a personality and weren’t afraid to show it, and spoke up in the press in ways other than tired cliches, people might take notice. Hell, you don’t even need the media now. Every player has access to Twitter and Instagram, and can be their own bullhorn if they want. You can get directly to the fans. How many do?

    If the players are going to throw all their toys out of the crib over escrow and revenue not increasing how they were promises, are they really going to trust the owners to do that and give them more money? How many times do you have to be bit by the scorpion before you stop taking him across the river? Don’t expect them to do all the work for you.

    Secondly, the players are the ones who could easily get rid of fighting and the other bullshit that holds the game back, but they don’t. And while they may think it’s an element that makes the sport unique and intriguing to the outsider, if that were the case we’d have seen major growth from the sport already. They keep the goons and talentless hobos in the league by blanching whenever the idea is brought up to get rid of it. “Part of the game.”

    Well, no one watches your game. So maybe it’s not all that necessary?