Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Blackhawks Player Previews: Brendan Perlini

By Rose Rankin 1486 0

The Hawks lines are coming into focus now that they’ve gotten through a few preseason games, i.e., DeBrincat-Strome-Shaw (ugh) are your second line, and Toews and Kane are joined at the hip for better or worse on the top line, with CCYP trying to find the least bad option to skate with them. But there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the bottom-six rabble, of which the Hawks have no shortage. Brendan Perlini is yet another piece of that rabble, and his role on this team is still as unpredictable as it was last spring. Let’s do it:

2018-19 Stats (w/ Hawks)

46 GP – 12 G – 3 A – 15 P

45.2 CF% (-3.8 CF% Rel) – 40.4 xGF%

52.6 oZS% – 10:36 Avg. TOI

FFUD Review

A Brief History: When Dylan Strome and Brendan Perlini came our way around the same time as our Thanksgiving food comas, Perlini was expected to be the more reliable producer, while Strome was the will-he-won’t-he prospect who hadn’t yet reached his potential. (I think it’s still debatable what that potential and its ceiling may be, but that’s for another day and another preview.)

Perlini ended up being serviceable on the second line and mostly underwhelming, until March hit and he showed flashes of…well, maybe not quite brilliance, but definitely shininess, scoring eight goals in seven games. However, following that offensive outburst he promptly turned around and started acting like a bored, cranky teenager who couldn’t be bothered to win a puck battle. Colliton chose that moment to give the appearance of having testicles and benched Perlini for his insolence, once during a game and then just sending him to the press box for a little while. The Hawks dithered about re-signing him in the offseason but eventually inked him to a one-year, 875K extension that basically screams “this is your last warning.”

It Was the Best of Times: If Alex Nylander turns out to be the perennial loafer we expect him to be, then Perlini could earn a spot in the top six (that’s also dependent on Andrew Shaw and Brandon Saad but we’re aiming for the best-case scenario for Perlini here). Honestly, it’s pretty sad to think that our top six depends on who’s less of a lazy dumbshit, but here we are, your 2019-2020 Blackhawks. Maybe Perlini finally has a true breakout year with 40+ points and gets signed as an actual depth scorer for two to three years at a still-affordable $3 mildo or so.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Conversely, Perlini could end up unmotivated and salty, and as a result he fades into irrelevance in the press box as Nylander, Kubalik, Wedin, et. al., fill the holes up and down the lineup. Not even useful to trade, Perlini becomes an official has-been-never-was.

Prediction: Brendan Perlini will earn himself a roster spot, albeit in the bottom six. I’m not convinced that Nylander is any better, and we know Zack Smith isn’t, so if the organ-I-zation keeps burying superior talent in the AHL or at least not bothering to give the likes of Sikura (either one) or Kurashev a look in the regular season, then there’s probably room on a line for Perlini. I don’t expect he’ll turn into some offensive juggernaut—we’re probably talking in the 25-point range. But he’s not chronically lazy, and that ends up being good enough…great seats still available.

All stats from Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Preview: Arizona Coyotes

By Sam Fels 1576 0

For the 378th straight year, this is the time when the Arizona Coyotes will be relevant. Their oh-so-smart and oh-so-young and oh-so-handsome GM has finally broken the code, and now all the young talent they’ve been amassing since I had hair is finally going to gel, take a huge leap forward, and save hockey in the desert. You heard it here first, motherfuckers! Actually, you’ve heard it every goddamn year from everywhere, and then by December you’re genuinely shocked when the Yotes pop up on the schedule because once again you’ve forgotten they exist.

So I’m just going to go ahead and say this year will be no different. It’s the safe bet.

2018-2019

39-35-8  86 points (4th in the Pacific

2.55 GF/G (28th)  2.68 GA/G (6th)  -11 GD

48.7 CF% (20th)  49.2 xGF% (17th)

16.3 PP% (26th)  86.0 PK% (3rd)

Goalies: Once again, the Yotes will roll it back with the hopes that Anttie Raanta can keep the loose grip on all the gremlins that form his body and muscles, and not see them go spilling off in every direction again and miss a large chuck of the season. It happened…never.  So when he once again finds himself in the infirmary, the starter’s role will be taken up by Darcy Kuemper again. Strange things happen to goalies in AZ, which is they turn good. They have a system for it. So you may remember Kuemper as the middling place-holder in Minnesota, which is what he was. But last year in Glendale he threw up a .925, which followed a season of .920 in both LA and Arizona. That doesn’t mean he’s definitively turned a corner or anything, because this is still Darcy Kuemper we’re talking about. But the Yotes seem to just get representative goaltending at worst the past few years, which they probably will again through the combo of DK and the times Raanta maintains oxygen intake.

Defense: Of course, the main problem has always been assembling skaters for Arizona. This defense still contains Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Niklas Hjalmarsson, who were dominant last year (a single tear rolls down my cheek). Beyond that, I can’t help you. Jakob Chychrun has missed huge parts of the last two seasons through injury, so maybe this is the one where he really leaps into the main picture except I don’t know what it is he does that gets everyone with a breeze going between their legs. Even with that though, there is not much beyond this. Alex Goligoski is 34 now. Jordan Oesterle is…you know what? His name is enough. Jason Demers is solid but needs a dynamic partner, which may or may not be Chychrun. They basically need the latter to finally blossom for this to be a good unit, because they’ve had OEL for years now and all that’s gotten them is a handful of themselves and their face in the dirt.

Forwards: And here’s another issue. They hardly scored last year, and are hoping that an aging and cranky Phil Kessel will solve that problem on his lonesome. I guarantee he tries to murder Derek Stepan by Christmas when he’s not getting any passes on his tape. Nick Schmaltz is healthy after blowing out his knee, so Yotes fans can look for five great games followed by a month of him floating around the outside and avoiding contact and waiting for a breakaway pass. Clayton Keller is probably due for a step forward, and will certainly be tasked with feeding Kessel at least on the power play where the Yotes need all kinds of help. Nothing helps out a young player like having a moody sniper’s feelings weighing on him. Still, Keller’s second season was a step back, and he might not be a point-per-game player. Which the Coyotes have exactly none of.

Prediction: This team was able to goalie and defend its way to near a playoff spot last year. The hope is that Kessel and growth from Keller and one or two others will aid their scoring and power play problems, but I’m not convinced. Kessel will get you 25-30 goals until he can’t walk, but the Coyotes need more than that. He’s no longer a surefire top line winger, and there might not be another one on the roster. Keller has yet to prove that he is. Schmaltz most certainly isn’t. Everyone thought their pick of Barrett Haydon was a joke. And you’ll never convince any of us here that Rick Tocchet isn’t huffing paint and betting lines behind the bench. With the playoff bar certainly going to be higher this year than it was last year, it feels like the Yotes are still behind it. The top three spots in the Pacific are spoken for, which means scrapping for a wildcard spot. It could happen if either or both Kuemper and Raanta have great years, but that’s their most likely hope. Feels like they’re coming up short again. Which is their lot in life.

Previous Team Previews

Carolina

Columbus

New Jersey

New York Islanders

New York Rangers

Philadelphia 

Pittsburgh

Washington

Boston

Buffalo

Detroit

Florida

Montreal

Ottawa

Tampa Bay

Toronto

 

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Alex Nylander

By John Pullega 1987 0

Stan Bowman certainly has a type. He likes ‘em fast. He likes ‘em to have big shots. He likes ‘em to have potential that’s eminently tappable. And StanBo gets what he wants, even if it takes trading a statistically solid 20-year-old defenseman from a team that is seriously going to ice Olli Maatta and Brent Seabrook as its second pairing, anno domini 2019. That’s how we end up with Michael Nylander’s son, aka William Nylander’s brother, staring down a spot on the first line.

Career Stats

19 GP – 3 G, 3 A, 6 P

53.96 CF% (3.5 CF% Rel), 66.9 oZS%

33.33 GF% (1.96 Rel GF%), 43.24 xGF% (-3.79 Rel xGF%)

Avg. TOI 12:20

A Brief History: In the process of prominently displaying my ass over the Alexander Nylander acquisition—or being one of the young go-hards spit roasting Stan Bowman as McClure so eloquently essentialized it—I accidentally did a primer on Nylander. Here’s where we landed on him back in July.

  • He’s not a Top 4 D-man.
  • His AHL stats aren’t great. He had 86 points (30 goals) in 165 games, good for .52 points a game. That’s pretty pedestrian for a supposed offensive dynamo.
  • He’s not particularly good on the defensive side of the puck.
  • He has alleged motivation issues.

We worried about where a guy like Nylander would fit, acerbically wondering whether Mayor Jeremy would try to shove him into a spot on the top line to prove what a monumental genious Stan Bowman was for getting him. And lo, dear reader, that’s precisely what they’re doing.

The calls for Nylander to play with Kane and Toews began almost immediately, based primarily on a first-round pedigree, Nylander’s genetic stock, and the consistent beat writer drumbeat that this year won’t be so bad and that Nylander may have just needed a change of scenery. I’m here to shit in your milkshake. It’s what you come here for.

Nylander has played 19 games in the NHL. Twelve of them came last year, where he saw most of his time with Conor Sheary and Evan Rodrigues, who were, I guess, the second or third line. There weren’t many patterns in his stats there, other than he and his mates were consistently and deeply underwater in both GF% and xGF%.

Now, Buffalo’s offense as a whole did suck, so it’s possible that coming over to the Hawks—who, despite eating glass on defense, are still a strong offensive threat—might goose those numbers. But watching him in the pre-season, where he’s slotted to the left of Toews and Kane, hasn’t really fleshed that out.

Nylander hasn’t looked bad by any stretch. He obviously has decent vision, good speed, and a good shot. But his play away from the puck has tracked fairly in line with what both scouts and Sabres fans (pardon my redundancy) hated most about Nylander. In short, he tends to loaf when he doesn’t have the puck. When he’s not loafing, he’s floating on the perimeter, hanging around the fringes (you’d think that would tug at our heartstrings, but alas).

This isn’t to say that pre-season hockey is representative of, well, anything. But for a former first rounder with a supposed ton of offensive potential who had trouble cracking the Sabres’s roster over the past three years, it’s sort of all we have. It’s not great, it’s not awful. It’s just there. And against what’s primarily been AHL rosters, you’ll pardon us for occupying a David Byrne headspace about that.

It Was the Best of Times: Nylander rewards the organ-I-zation’s belief in the Strome Effect and unearths the offensive monster inside of him. He fills out the Top 6 next to Toews and Kane, scoring 30 goals and potting 80 points. He becomes more engaged away from the puck (e.g., finding seams in the slot, continuing to develop his ability to set picks for Kane), forcing opponents to focus their best defenders on this line and opening up the ice for the DeBrincat–Strome–(heavy sigh) Shaw line. He’s the missing piece of the Hawks’s all-offense, all-the-time strategy.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Nylander does what he’s always done: flatters to deceive. He’s caught scratching his ass when the puck isn’t on his stick, which forces Toews to revert to the defensive side of his skillset, essentially neutering Kane’s playmaking. But the Hawks keep him in the Top 6 for half the year, because Stan Bowman is a trade genious who was in the GM chair for three Stanley Cups, which is definitely not something a cold glass of orange juice could have done with the rosters Uncle Dale served him on a platter.

As the Hawks sink farther into the abyss as the year slogs on, Nylander ends up in the AHL in favor of, like, John Quenneville.

Prediction: Nylander will get every chance to stick on the top line because DAT DYLAN STROME WUZ BAD BEFORE DEY TRADED FERIM MY FRENT. But he’ll end up on the third line with Saad and—fuck I guess Kampf?—because Kubalik is the actual guy who belongs in the Top 6. He’ll be Brendan Perlini II: showing flashes of the potential everyone keeps saying he has that are overwhelmed by lackadaisical off-the-puck and defensive play.

We want him to succeed. We want it to be a just-needed-a-change-of-scenery situation. But Alex Nylander’s career thus far has been a lot of peeing on the seat. It’ll be a Grimey ride.

Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey.

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Hockey

High On The Hog 2019-20 Season Preview: Versteeg & Company

By Jon Fromi 1720 0

The Rockford IceHogs, the Blackhawks’ AHL affiliate, will soon be opening their 2019-20 season. The Flying Piglets of Winnebago County will take to the BMO Harris Bank Center in hopes of furthering the careers of Chicago’s prospects. I’m back for another season of bringing you my takes on the (Olive) garden party down Rockford way.

Rockford went 35-31-4-6 last season, finishing seventh in the eight-team Central Division. My thoughts on the 2018-19 campaign can be found here. If you don’t have the time to read, here are the Cliffs Notes: The Hogs couldn’t score, so they missed the playoffs.

After taking over for the promoted Jeremy Colliton in November, Derek King was officially named Rockford’s head coach this summer. The Blackhawks will measure King’s success in how he handles the organization’s young talent.

In Rockford, winning takes a backseat to development. The Blackhawks have made this abundantly clear over the years in the way they have assembled the IceHogs roster. This year is no different.

Actually, the landscape in Rockford is even more devoid of veteran presence than usual. Veterans like Peter Holland, Jordan Schroeder, Andreas Martinsen and Andrew Campbell weren’t re-signed by Chicago. Players like Anthony Louis and Luke Johnson were not tendered offers. Rockford elected not to re-sign popular winger William Pelletier or AHL vet Terry Broadhurst.

This leaves a lot of openings for playing time. The bulk of it is going to go to the slew of prospects set to join the team. In terms of grizzled veterans, the cupboard is mostly bare. With one notable exception.

The big name at the top of the roster (as well as this post) is two-time Stanley Cup winner Kris Versteeg. Let’s examine why he’s here. Versteeg, who spent last season in the KHL and SHL when he wasn’t injured, signed an AHL contract with the IceHogs back in April. Signing that early really surprised me, as usually a veteran like Versteeg would test free agency in hopes for some NHL ink later in the summer.

Nothing has fallen off the 33-year-old winger so far in training camp. He was dutifully assigned to Rockford last week and will be among a handful of AHL signees to make the Hogs roster. There hasn’t been a captain named by the team the last two seasons. Whether King elects to make it official or not, consider that role to be Versteeg’s.

The Blackhawks can’t bring him aboard for a third tour with Chicago unless he’s signed to an NHL contract. I have trouble envisioning that scene, though it certainly could happen at some point this season. I think that Versteeg is prepared to spend the full season in Rockford. By the way he’s spoken publicly, he seems pretty happy to be on the farm. How that time plays out depends on his health as well as his leadership abilities.

“What leadership abilities?” comes the call from above.

Well, Versteeg has been with seven NHL teams (eight including the Bruins, for whom he never played) and I don’t recall anyone ever putting a letter on his sweater. He does, however, have a 643 games of NHL experience and eight trips to the playoffs. It stands to reason that he is fully aware of his role in the scheme of things and can put his considerable experience to use in Rockford.

The ceiling on this move: a fit and motivated Versteeg plays 60-plus games, puts up some respectable offensive numbers, mentors the piglets on and off the ice and helps draw a few curious fans into the BMO this winter. If the brass in the Hawks organization have another plan mapped out for Versteeg, I don’t see it.

As for the remainder of the roster? Things won’t be set in stone for a couple of weeks, but lets take a look…

 

Forwards

Glad To Have You Back

Rockford is not long on returning players at forward. The ones coming back each have something to prove.

Dylan Sikura was Rockford’s Rookie of the Year, with 35 points (17 G, 18 A) in 46 games. The question for the organization is whether Sikura’s game can translate to NHL production.

Matthew Highmore, spent most of 2018-19 out of commission after a shoulder injury in late October. He’ll be looking to rebound in his third season in Rockford. With Sikura, Highmore will be counted on early this season to provide steady scoring at the top of the lineup.

Alexandre Fortin is in dire need of finding a finishing stroke as he enters his third season. Graham Knott and Nathan Noel are other players on the last year of their entry contracts.  Both may find ice time harder to come by as new prospects flood the roster.

Jacob Nilsson was placed on waivers by Chicago Sunday. Provided he clears, the IceHogs get last season’s MVP back in the fold. He was solid at both ends in his rookie season and will be a key player on special teams for Rockford.

 

Welcome To Winnebago County

King’s roster will be brimming with new faces up front. Mackenzie Entwistle, Brandon Hagel, Reece Johnson, Philipp Kurashev, Tim Soderlund, and Mikael Hakkarainen will be entering their rookie campaigns when the season begins.

The IceHogs will likely see several new acquisitions by the organization in action for at least part of the 2019-20 season. John Quenneville is a pickup from New Jersey who has 50-point potential in a full season of AHL play. He was a point a game player with Binghamton last year with 39 (18 G, 21 A) in 37 games.

A player like Aleksi Saarela could put up big offensive numbers if he winds up in Rockford with the proper mindset. Saarela had 30 goals for Charlotte last season, but it appears that he feels he belongs on an NHL roster. That could be an issue if Saarela comes to Rockford and sulks.

Several additional players should be coming down from Chicago once training camp winds down. Waiver-exempt players like Anton Wedin, Alexander Nylander or Dominik Kubalik could join a veteran or two who passes through waivers to bolster the Hogs roster.

 

AHL Deals

In addition to Versteeg, the IceHogs signed five other forwards to AHL contracts. Tyler Sikura, the MVP of the 2017-18 Hogs, is back on an AHL deal following seven-goals, twelve assists in 50 games for Rockford last season.

Sikura the Elder was hampered by a thumb injury but should be a regular in King’s lineup. Other than Nick Moutrey, who adds some bottom-six muscle, don’t expect the other Hogs signings to be at the BMO all that much.

That includes former 2014 Hawks draft picks Liam Coughlin (fifth round), who signed an AHL contract after finishing his college career at Vermont, and Jack Ramsey (seventh round), who signed after four years at Minnesota.

Matthew Thompson had 50 points (21 G, 29 A) for the Indy Fuel last season and figures to be in Indy for most of 2019-20.

 

Defense

The few returning players at defense are led by Lucas Carlsson and Dennis Gilbert.

Carlsson was Rockford’s Defenseman of the Year after a 33-point (9 G, 24 A) rookie season.

Gilbert was the IceHogs most consistently physical presence most nights. He’ll be looking to find a bit more offense in his game in his sophomore season, totaling 14 points (5 G, 9 A) in 2018-19. Joni Tuulola (4 G, 10 A in 52 games) could be Rockford ‘s only other returning player on defense.

Chicago did not ink a veteran defenseman to mentor the blue line, as was the case with with Andrew Campbell last year. The Blackhawks did sign Philip Holm to a two-way deal. Holm, who is currently going through waivers, spent last season in the KHL and has just one career NHL game to his credit.

Provided he doesn’t make the Blackhawks out of camp, expect Adam Boqvist to lead the host of rookie piglets. Nicolas Beaudin and Chad Krys are also new faces who should inject some excitement.

Rockford re-signed Josh McArdle to an AHL contract and also secured the services of Dmitry Osipov and Jake Ryczek. McArdle (19 games) and Osipov (eight games) both saw time with the IceHogs and will find themselves in the lineup when not in the ECHL with Indy.

Ryczek, a seventh-round pick by Chicago in the 2016 NHL Draft, spent most of last season in the QMJHL with Halifax.

 

Goalie

It’s in this area that Rockford can enter the season with a measure of confidence. If things break Chicago’s way health-wise (keep ’em crossed), then the IceHogs may have one of the top goalie tandems in the AHL.

Collin Delia is coming off a season in which he was ninth in the league with a 2.48 GAA. His .922 save percentage was second in the league among qualified net men. As good as Delia has been for the Hogs, the other half of the goalie picture could wind up to be even better.

Kevin Lankinen was the odd man out for much of last season but played very well for Rockford in the latter stages of the 2018-19 campaign. He then followed up his rookie season in the AHL with an outstanding performance to win a gold medal with Finland at the World Championships.

I would expect the organization to balance the minutes in net, though either Delia or Lankinen should be able to handle full-time work in Rockford if need be. In a best-case scenario, both will man the crease 35-40 times for the IceHogs. If that doesn’t come to fruition, Rockford has two players under AHL deals.

Matt Tomkins enters his third year as a Rockford signing, having spent most of last year with Indy. He was up in Rockford briefly but did not appear in a game with the Hogs. Chase Marchand was signed by Rockford and will likely be with the Fuel all season.

 

The Schedule

Division wins are going to make the difference for the IceHogs; 66 of the 76 games on Rockford’s schedule are within the confines of the AHL’s Central Division.

Rockford have two games each with Laval, Belleville and Toronto and another four with Cleveland. The IceHogs non-division games are all against Eastern Conference teams; Rockford will not play a game against a Pacific Division opponent this season…unless it’s in the Western Conference Final.

As usual, besting the neighbors will be vital. The piglets will attempt to wrest the vaunted Illinois Lottery Cup from the Chicago Wolves. Rockford’s interstate rivals took the grail for the third consecutive season last spring; despite each team winning six of the twelve season contests, the Wolves earned more points in those games.

The Hogs also have an even dozen with Milwaukee again this season, though Rockford won’t see the Ads until December 7 at the BMO. The IceHogs square off with Grand Rapids ten times and have eight apiece with Iowa, Manitoba, San Antonio and Texas.

The schedule is fairly balanced throughout the season. Rockford has 24 home dates out of its first 46 games, then is at home in 14 of its final 30 games. The Hogs have a five-game home stand Oct. 30-Nov. 8 and a six-straight at home Jan. 25-Feb. 8. They have a five-game road trip at the end of February. Otherwise, there are no more than three consecutive games either home or away.

 

So…How’s This Team Gonna Do?

That, friends, is a question I’ll set about answering when the roster is more concrete. The Hogs kick off the season in Iowa October 4; I’ll be back with more thoughts on the upcoming season before then.

Follow me on twitter @JonFromi throughout the season as I offer updates and musings on the scene in Rockford.

 

 

 

Hockey

Preseason Game #4 – Bruins 2, Hawks 3 – Twist it Around Till You Find a Solution

By Rose Rankin 1640 0

The Blackhawks went with an actually serious lineup tonight, not just a collection of children and randos fighting for a spot. No, tonight’s roster was in theory an actual version of the team we’ll see this season…while their opponent was a collection of children and randos and, for some reason, also Charlie McAvoy. And that’s fine, the Bruins may have things to figure out and it’s still the stupid preseason, but it was a little concerning to see our supposedly legit lineup give up 41 shots and a short-handed goal to this flotsam. Let’s take a look:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The Hawks looked good at the start of the game, for real. It was nearly halfway through the first before they gave up any shots, Dylan Strome scored on a power play, and they were still ahead in shots when that period ended, which felt like the first time they’ve done that in this preseason. Granted the PPG was as much luck as it was skill with Maxime Lagace fumbling it a bit which allowed Strome to sneak it in, but so what? Unfortunately the Hawks didn’t really keep that momentum going and whether it’s rust or unfamiliarity or just plain crappiness, there were plenty of mistakes to follow.

–What kinds of mistakes? Olli Maatta totally whiffing on a shot when the Hawks were setting up a play in the Bruins zone, Nylander with a shitty pass that Toews couldn’t corral which ended a 2-on-1 possibility, Slater Koekkoek watching pucks leap over his stick and dribbling into the neutral zone…there were plenty to go around. Individually none of them were drastic but in total they prevented the Hawks from creating or capitalizing on opportunities that may have kept this bunch of nobodies from even making it a game.

–Let’s also talk about Robin Lehner. First, he looked better than he did in the first half of whatever that game was that I watched a couple days ago. And he did make a number of impressive saves tonight. But, a lot of them were impressive because he wasn’t controlling rebounds. If you’re flailing in desperation it’s because you’re not in control, and yes it looks cool in the moment, but if he had been able to prevent rebounds he wouldn’t have had to make second and third saves that were highlight-reel-worthy. Again, I know it’s the preseason and there’s no reason to clutch pearls, but while Lehner’s positioning is excellent, if he’s giving up huge rebounds against real teams, not preseason jamokes, these multiple chances will become a problem.

–Kane basically scored the game-winner off his face. There are many, many jokes in that statement.

–Anton Wedin looked decent as the 3C, and he had what I will reluctantly call good chemistry with Brandon Saad. I say reluctantly because, chemistry? In one preseason game? It doesn’t seem reliable, but I don’t have a better way of describing it (I’ve been drinking, shut up). They had good puck movement and Saad’s goal was off textbook give-and-go passing from Wedin. I guess Kampf will have some competition for that third-line center role? It’s so hard to say; Wedin could crap the bed or they’ll send him down despite tonight’s performance—who knows. But if we’re going to have a herd of bottom-six guys, let’s at least find the least shitty options.

–There are still some serious issues with this defense. As I mentioned, giving up over 40 shots to a bunch of nobodies is concerning, and the tying short-handed goal was brought to you by Gustafsson misplaying it and getting burned by something named Par Lindholm. Gus and Keith managed only a 29 and 36 CF%, respectively. The rest of the defense was above water, but I kid you not at one point in the first period Connor Murphy was skating with Koekkoek like a service animal ensuring he was soothed and OK. It wasn’t nightmarish, but it wasn’t instilling much confidence, either.

But they beat a bunch of nobodies! Onto the Caps stateside this Wednesday and then their European adventure begins. Onward and upward…

 

 

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Toronto Maple Leafs

By Sam Fels 1966 0

The only team that matters. Don’t believe it, just ask them. The Leafs got Mitch Marner into the fold before the season, which was something of a minor upset. They’re going into the season with a better defense than they did last year, now a full year of Jake Muzzin, along with Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci arriving this summer (the latter already causing hilarious furor). And yet, this collection of players still doesn’t have a playoff series win to its name. The thinking is that if they get the first a whole bunch more will follow. Problem with that is they’re still in the same division with Tampa and Boston. And we know if they don’t get past them, it’ll be a national disaster and you all have to have a week of mourning. Is this the time? Could be, but it’s no guarantee.

2018-2019

46-28-8  100 points (3rd in Atlantic, out in 1st round)

3.49 GF/G (4th)  3.04 GA/G (20th) +37 GD

51.7 CF% (8th)  51.7 xGF% (10th)

21.8 PP% (8th)  79.9 PK% (17th)

Goalies: So here’s the thing. The Leafs can dress up their changes, acquisitions, and experience gained all they want, but they’re still counting on Freddie Andersen. And Freddie Anderson is the very definition of “good enough to break your heart.” It’s what he does. It’s what he’s always done. He’s certainly more than enough to rack up points in the regular season, especially when you score a ton of goals as the Leafs do. And he wasn’t even bad in the playoffs last year, with a .922 SV% in the series against Boston. But it wasn’t enough in Game 7. It never is. That’s what happens. And the Leafs seem to think they can break through the same wall this time. They don’t have a good enough defense to shield him. They need Freddie to make the saves. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a team that just scores its way through four rounds. Freddie has yet to do it. I’m not betting on him to do it now.

Anyway, Michael Hutchinson is backing him up. There’s not enough time for all that I want… to say about him.

Defense: It’s new look, and if it doesn’t work everyone here is a free agent after the season except LGBTQ spokesman Morgan Rielly. You would think that would create some urgency, which could help. I’m bigger on Tyson Barrie than most, and provides someone who can get the puck up himself or to the forwards better than anyone they had last season save Rielly. Cody Ceci is already causing Alka-Seltzer sales to go up in Ontario, as everyone expects Mike Babcock to use him way too often. They’ll get a full season of Muzzin, who was surprisingly good last year after arriving from LA. But beyond those four it is ugly, which is probably where the Ceci fears are springing from. Martin Marincin, Justin Holl, The Other Schmaltz, Ben Harpur, you don’t want any of these idiots skating more than 10 minutes a night. Which might leave the top four exposed and exhausted by the time the games really count.

Forwards: If any unit can counteract what the defense can’t do, it’s this forward group. Everyone’s locked in now, so they don’t have that hanging over them. There’s still no team rolling out a better top six than this, with Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen, and whatever other jokers you want to pair with them. Nylander should rebound after getting a full training camp and having Marner take all the recent-signee pressure off of him. They’ve lost some depth in trading Nazem Kadri for Barrie, and Kadri did a lot more for this team than people realize.

There isn’t anyone around to take up that role, and you don’t want either of Tavares or Matthews to do it. Nick Shore? Nic Petan? Those are huge steps down from Kadri, who was a shutdown center who could also score a lot. Nobody is going to replace him on either side of that ledger, and the Leafs downfall might be either having some top line go off on them in the playoffs (again) or having to use Matthews to fight fire with fire and losing his production. It’s an issue.

It’s not much different on the wings. where only Andreas Johansson looks like a useful bottom-six piece. Jason Spezza is dead. They’ll be hunting depth via trade.

Prediction: With all the pieces locked in now, one wonders how much patience they’ll have under Mike Babcock again. He’s not a soft sort to play for, and now the Leafs have made their commitments. What happens when Marner and Matthews start rolling their eyes at Babs in January or December even? That’s one iceberg they’ll have to avoid, and it might help that Babs is going to have to play his top six a ton. But if Ceci ends up being a disaster, there’s not much anyone can do about the defense.

And there’s not much Babs can do about Andersen, either. There’s more than enough talent here than make a run…and there’s enough holes to eat it in the first round to any of Tampa or Boston or any surprise like Montreal or Florida as well. Whatever it ends up being, there’ll be far more noise than is warranted.

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Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Tampa Bay Lightning

By Sam Fels 1878 0

Whoops.

That ended up being the theme for the Bolts last season. They took a historically good season and a historically good individual season from Nikita Kucherov and dumped in straight into the toilet like tainted Taco Bell in four games. In some ways, it makes them more unique than if they’d just won the Cup. But that will be of little solace to them and their fans. Which makes this season something of a revenge tour. Most likely, they’ll dial back in the regular season a touch, which should be still more than good enough to win this division. And no judgements can be made until the postseason starts. But the thing with the Lightning is they don’t have some record of being playoff chokers. They’ve been to the conference final twice, a Final once all in the last four seasons. Perhaps they should have beaten the Caps in that conference final, with a Game 7 at home, but it was hardly the magnitude of an upset that last year was. They may be running out of chances.

2018-2019

62-16-4  128 points (1st in Metro, lost in 1st round)

3.89 GF/G (1st)  2.80 GA/G (7th)  +72 GD

51.5 CF% (9th)  52.6 xGF% (8th)

29.2 PP% (1st)  85.0 PK% (1st)

Goalies: A microcosm of the entire team, no opinions are going to be formed about Andrei Vasilevskiy in the regular season. We know he’s almost certainly going to put up Vezina-numbers then. He’s been over .920 in both of his seasons as starter, and .925 at evens. Unless something truly broke in the playoffs, the Lightning have no questions here.

But when April rolls around, so do all those questions. Vas-manian Devil here was simply awful in the first round, putting up an .856 over four games against Columbus. No, he didn’t have a lot of help, but when the Lightning needed a save, he didn’t provide one. This followed him somewhat falling apart in that Game 7 the previous season, so we know there are gremlins jumping around his skull in the spring. And that label dogs you until you prove it untrue. Vas is going to have to wait six months to make things right.

He’ll be backed up by Curtis McElhinney, who is about as solid in that role as you can ask. He had a brief hot streak with the Canes last year before ceding to Peter Mrazek, and was solid as a backup in Toronto the previous two seasons to the point where the unwashed rabble amongst Leafs fans (read: all of them) were pining for him last season. The Lightning won’t want to turn things over to him for too long a stretch if something happens to Vasilevskiy, but he certainly can get them out of 20-25 games.

Defense: What might be most amazing about the Lightning’s season last year is that this defense isn’t all that impressive. And it’s still not. Victor Hedman is one of the best around and certainly cures a lot of ills. But Anton Stralman started to age last year, and they replaced him this time around with a couple fliers in Kevin Shattenkirk and Luke Schenn. You could see where in heavily sheltered shift, and the Bolts can do that for him, Kirk ShattenKevin could be a find. Mikhail Sergachev had a rough go in the playoffs, but still has all the promise in the world and should get second-pairing time now.

Erik Cernak‘s play landed Slater Koekkoek here, so you can thank him for that. But Braydon Coburn is still here for reasons no one can explain. Ryan McDonagh is past it too, though Hedman covers up for a lot of that. You know Rutta and Schenn suck deep pond scum. When they were put under heavy attack last year by the Jackets, you saw what happened. They’ll need a renaissance from Shattenkirk and real steps forward from Sergachev and Cernak. If they don’t get those, they’ll have to go looking.

Forwards: Then again, it might not matter thanks to this group. They still need to cram in Brayden Point to their cap situation, as he remains unsigned. Until he is, they’ll just have to find a way to make do with Steven Stamkos, Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson (high atop our wanted list for the Hawks), Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli, and Mathieu Joseph. How will they ever manage?

The Bolts lit up the scoreboard on the power play and at evens, and with Stamkos and Kucherov on opposite wings there’s no reason the PP won’t go pinball noises again. There’s just little answer for them, especially with Hedman up top. It’s hard to match this depth, whenever Point gets back into the fold. They could ice just the forwards and Vasilevskiy and probably still be a playoff team. Hell, they should try a 4F-1D lineup at all times just to see what happens.

Predictions: If you got odds on this team to win the Cup, you should take them. I don’t think last season is anything other than a strange anomaly, and the only thing that could derail them again before the conference final is if Vasilevskiy truly does see ghosts in the postseason. Yeah, the defense is not special, but it’s got three puck-movers that it needs and all it really has to do is get the puck up to the forwards and say, “Go do shit.” And this forward group is still otherworldly. Is Kucherov going to go for 128 points again? No, probably not. But he doesn’t have to. This team, barring injury or goalies going inside-out, can sleepwalk to 110 points and the Atlantic title again. Any question about them is in the playoffs, and again, this isn’t a team that has a track record of throwing up on itself when it counts. That feels like a one-off. All systems go here.

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Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Patrick Kane

By Adam Hess 1776 0

Patrick Kane is good at hockey. I am not really sure what more we should say about this guy. He’s been the best forward on this team for more than a decade and the best player for a few years, since Duncan Keith‘s mileage caught up to him. But you know all this. I’m not gonna say much in here that will surprise you. Let’s just do it.

2018-19 Stats

81 GP – 44 G – 66 A – 110 P

48.86 CF% (-0.72 CF% Rel) – 64.01 oZS%

44.94 xGF% (-1.32 xGF% Rel)

Avg. TOI: 22:28

A Brief History: In some ways it just about flew under the radar, largely because the Blackhawks had a terrible blue line and a CPR dummy in the crease when Crawford was hurt, but Patrick Kane had the best season of his career in 2018-19. His 110 points were four more than his previous high of 106 in his Hart winning 2015-16 season. Four points doesn’t feel like a lot, but the difference between 106 and 110 is probably a bit more significant than, say, 40 and 44. There is a level of dominance that Kane attained last year that we had previously seen, but it had been three years and we weren’t sure we’d see it again. Then he did it again, in his age-30 season. The guy might be a huge piece of shit, but he’s pretty much undoubtedly the best hockey player you or I will ever see suit up for this team in our lifetimes.

It Was the Best of Times: Realistically, it’s hard to expect Kane to be better than he was last year. Give that he turns 31 this November, I’d say the best case scenario for Kane and the Hawks is that he just plays at that same level again. This team has addressed the blue line (at least on paper) and the crease issues that resulted in his historic 2018-19 being wasted, and it’s reasonable to expect that players like Top Cat and Strome will improve this year and as such take some pressure off Kane. He can give the Hawks 100-ish points, give or take a few, that’s the ideal outcome here.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Being 31 catches up to Kane doesn’t  quickly, and his hands and feet are not even close to as quick as they once were. The vision and feel for the game are still there, because those things will never just go away, but Kane’s body just doesn’t cooperate at the level he’d like and as such the production falls off a bit. This all sounds dramatic, but I don’t think it would happen to the tune of him suddenly becoming a *bad* player, but just that he would be more in the 60-70 point range at season’s end. He did have just 76 points in 82 games in ’17-18, so it’s not like this would be appear as much of a fall-off overall, but that was his second lowest shooting percentage of his career, and the Hawks didn’t have much forward group to help in then. They do now. Anything less than 75 points from Kane this year would be a bad outcome.

Prediction: Kane continues his dominance, and with Cat and Strome taking the step forward that we wanted from Mitchell Trubisky but aren’t getting (I am sensitive about it, okay), his level of production does not fall off very much and finishes the year with 45 goals and 108 points. The Hawks make the playoffs and Kane finishes second in scoring, behind only Connor McDavid of the Oilers who miss the playoffs obviously, so Kane wins another Hart. He wills the Hawks to the playoffs, where they get railroaded in the first round.

Stats from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

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Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews: David Kampf

By Rose Rankin 1747 0

David Kampf is not a sexy player in any sense of the word—not in the general sense of a flashy player nor in the actual definition, see picture above as evidence—but he’s one of the Hawks’ only options for a defensive-minded center. He’s undeniably a bottom-six guy, but if he can flourish in a third-line role, so be it. He may not be Marcus Kruger when he was at his peak, but we’ll have to deal with what we have. Let’s take a look:

2018-19 Stats

63 GP – 4 G – 15 A – 19 P

49.4 CF% (0.56 CF% Rel) – 36.4 oZS%

48.6 xGF% (4.85 xGF% Rel)

Avg. TOI: 13:55

A Brief History: Speaking of Marcus Kruger, Kampf was basically groomed to be Kruger 2.0 last year since the actual 2.0 version of Kruger the Blackhawk was a disappointment (sequels always are, and yet they just won’t learn). Kampf centered the third line most of the time, taking over 60% of his zone starts in his own end, and he had a month-long stint on IR with a broken foot. The Hawks pretty much sucked during his absence, but then again, they pretty much sucked a lot, including when he was around. They re-signed him at a bargain price of $1 million a year for two years, so at least they’re not repeating the Artem Anisimov mistake and overpaying for a 3C/4C.

It Was the Best of Times: Ideally Kampf grows into being a shutdown center and a component of a not-vomit-inducing penalty kill unit. You could see him with Drake Caggiula or maybe with his elder version Ryan Carpenter, where they do the Spiderman meme and one is on the wing and the other is at center. Or, maybe Brandon Saad ends up back on the third line (kinda feels like when, not if, with the only question being duration), or whatever other jamoke from the collection they got going will slot in.

If Kampf can adequately handle dungeon starts and improve his possession to being above water, we’ll be satisfied. If he can improve his scoring we’ll be downright pleased. If he can help the PK be anywhere close to functional we may even be happy (no we won’t).

It Was the Blurst of Times: Kampf remains the definition of “a guy” and contributes little other than literally taking up space. He sucks on the PK yet Colliton has few other options so we’re stuck watching him there. And, he’s offensively useless and the Hawks have no one better to replace him with and/or can’t include him as an extra piece in a trade before the deadline. That’s a pretty bleak picture. Given the amount of jamokes I just mentioned, I imagine SOMEONE could take Kampf’s spot and he would disappear to the land of wind and ghosts unless we can trade him.

Prediction: Kampf will likely fall somewhere between the best- and worst-case scenarios just outlined (wow, there’s some hard-hitting analysis, no?). He’s not going to become some elite scorer or anything else other than “a guy,” but he will be a decent guy. Young, cheap, and with a defined role that he only needs to meet, not some lofty position he must reinvent himself to achieve, Kampf will be reliable in his own zone, fairly uninspired in terms of scoring, and not the dregs of the bottom six.

All stats from Hockey Reference and Corsica Hockey