Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Hockey

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Winnipeg Jets

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Winnipeg Jets

    We bring our team previews to a close, where we most definitely didn’t skip anyone, with the team that has every chance to be the best comedy act in the league this year. A lettered captain has already fucked off for the all-you-can-eat-and-drink menu at Caesar’s. They hated their coach last year, and yet he’s still coaching. The defense has been ripped apart to the point where they really need Carl Dahlstrom. Patrik Laine bitched to everyone he wants to play on the top line, where there doesn’t appear to be any room, which will make his linemates on the second line feel very welcoming. There’s still a wealth of talent in Winnipeg, and on that alone they could cozy up to 100 points. Or they could deteriorate right out of the playoffs.

    2018-2019

    47-30-5  99 points (2nd in Central, out in 1st round)

    3.29 GF/G (7th)  2.96 GA/G (15th)

    48.9 CF% (19th)  47.7 xGF% (23rd)

    24.6 PP% (4th)  79.2 PK% (22nd)

    Goalies: Same as last year, as Connor Hellebuyck will be backed up by Laurent Brossoit. Hellebuyck didn’t hit the heights of the previous year, at a solid .913 overall. The problem for the Jets is they weren’t very good defensively, and they figure to be a measure worse this year. So .913 very well might not be near enough to not give up three goals per game or worse. More worrying, is that Hellebuyck lagged behind his expected save-percentage last year at evens, which simply can’t happen this year. Is he the .924 guy of ’17-’18 or is he more to the career .915? It’s probably the latter, but will that include enough miracles to keep their excellent finishing close enough to win games? Real question.

    Brossoit was excellent as a backup last year, and if he puts up another .920 and Hellebuyck struggles a bit, Paul Maurice is going to have another headache he doesn’t know how to handle.

    Defense: Goodness. This is a unit. Byfuglien has fucked off, and likely isn’t coming back. Jacob Trouba finally got his wish, which was an escape from Winnipeg. Tyler Myers shuffled off to Vancouver, though that’s not a bad thing. So the only remaining player from last year’s top four is Josh Morrissey, and we don’t know if he’s actually good or looked good next to Trouba. Dmitry Koulikov is still here, whatever that does for you. Promising kid Sami Niku has to start in the minors due to conditioning. Nathan Beaulieu, Anthony Bitteto, Dahlstrom, and Tucker Poolman are the very definition of “guys.” Maybe they think Neal Pionk is going to be more than the Rangers did, but this is a goddamn mess. And this was a team that didn’t have impressive metrics when it came to attempts and chances against last season. What’s it going to look like this one? Especially if they try and play as up-tempo as they have, which they kind of need to to get the most out of their forwards.

    Forwards: With Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor back in the fold, there is still the ton of finish along with mainstays Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers. There are the nifty two-way guys in Andrew Copp, Mathieu Perreault, Jack Roslovic, and Adam Lowry. It’s not the happiest bunch thanks to the windsock moods of Laine and how everyone feels about the coach. And they’re going to have to continue to outscore opponents and their own defense, because it could be a real challenge. There are going to be nights when they put up five and six. There are also going to be nights when they hit a couple posts or aren’t quite as dynamic and their defense gives up five or six. If the power play isn’t clicking above 20%, they’re going to have real issues.

    Prediction: Tire fire. This team absolutely quit on its coach in the playoffs last year and not kicking Maurice to the curb, who’s never known what he’s doing, was a huge mistake. They’ll probably sacrifice the first four to six weeks waiting for Chevyldayoff to clear the gas leak in his office and can Maurice’s ass. From there it’s about the hire and whether the players are too far gone or respond. If they stick with Maurice too long, this will definitely go into the tank and they’re only eight points or so away from slipping out of the playoffs altogether. There’s so much that can go wrong here. If Hellebuyck is only solid, that might not be enough. If no one on the defense claims a higher spot, they’ll get run over. If Josh Morrissey isn’t up to being the guy, they could get run over. If the forwards think they’ve missed their window and give up the fight, which they did once, they won’t score enough to outlast their other problems. And it won’t take much for that asylum up in Manitoba to completely turn on them and turn into a complete zoo.

    It’s on a knife’s edge up there, and the smart money is it falls off.

  • Wheel It Out Here, Carnac

    We used to do this every year, so we’ll get back to it. Your FFUD Hawks staff predicts what will happen in the upcoming season. 

    Big One First – Predicted Points and standings for the Hawks

    McClure: 92 Points, 2nd wild card in the west

    Pullega: 88 points, 9th in Conference (just outside wild card)

    Hess: 86 points, 9th or 10th in West

    Rankin: 88 pts, 9th in conference

    Feather: 102 points – 3rd in the Central

    Fels: 88 points, 10th in West

    How many games will each goalie play and how good will they be?

    McClure: Crawford 46, .916   Lehner 35, 910

    Pullega: Crow: 34. He’ll play very well (.920) but he’ll get hurt again. Robin: 44. He’ll play fine (.910) and probably get four years. Delia: Four because both bird boys will be hurt at the same time at some point. He’ll be meh (.900).

    Hess:Crow: 20, will be good but not great (.912), and deal with minor injuries early. He gets traded at the deadline, sadly

    Robin: 45. He’ll be slightly better than Crow (.918) and get’s extended
    Delia plays 17 while Crow’s hurt  and then backs up after Crow is traded. Plays well enough (.906) for Hawks to keep him as the backup moving forward
    Rankin: Crawford: 35, will be good but not great and will struggle with brown brain at one point

    Lehner: 40, will be good but terrifying at times, .912
    Delia: 7, backs up Lehner when Crow is out, mediocre
    Feather: 47 and 35 but don’t make me say which will have more. I’m having nostalgic feelings to 2008-09 when Huet and Khabibulin were going every other start.
    Fels: Crow 43 (.918), Lehner 30 (.910), Delia 9 (.908)
    Will the power play be over 20% for the year?
    McClure: Just under at 19.6%
    Pullega: No. 17% tops. Gus is going to bask in his own farts from last year and crater any trade value he had.
    Hess: I’m calling this a push, they’ll finish +/- 1% of 20%
    Rankin: Just barely, 20.5
    Feather: Yes (Hawk voice) Let’s say 23%
    Fels: Nope, 18%
    How many games will Boqvist play?
    McClure: 26
    Pullega: 9
    Hess: 30
    Rankin: 15ish
    Feather: 33 – I’m foreseeing a late to mid-season call up when the Hawks can’t pretend he’s not their 1st or 2nd best defensemen anymore.
    Fels: 37. Called up somewhere among the holidays when the Hawks realize they have no choice, but there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
     
    How many games will Dach play?
    McClure: 7
    Pullega: 9
    Hess: 9
    Rankin: 9
    Feather: in the NHL- Head too dingy
    Fels: 70 – he sticks but has injury issues at times and there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
     
    How many games will Versteeg play?
    McClure: 15
    Pullega: 15, 14 of them will matter
    Hess: too many
    Rankin: 12, and it will be ridiculous
    Feather: Too many and not far enough away
    Fels: I refuse to answer this and it’s my damn question
     
    Strome’s point-total:
    McClure: 69 (nice)
    Pullega: 60
    Hess: 27 goals, 81 points. Let’s fuckin go
    Rankin: 60, solid but not astronomical
    Feather: 23 goals and 56 assists
    Fels: 21 goals, 55 points
     
    Toews’s goal and point-total:
    McClure: 31-40-71
    Pullega: 28-47-75
    Hess: 29 goals, 79 points
    Rose: 30 and 75
    Feather: 38 goals and 80 points
    Fels: 30 goals, 62 points
     
    Biggest surprise:
    McClure: Calvin de Haan will actually prove to be a metrically solid defenseman
    Pullega: Kubalik. 40 points, 25 goals (5 PP)
    Hess: The Hawks trade Brandon Saad to Edmonton at the trade deadline
    Rankin: Andrew Shaw is useless in the top 6 and takes absurd numbers of penalties. This will not come as a surprise to me but to his many fans, it will.
    Feather: Alex Nylander – because reasons, buddy.
    Fels: That Dach sticks as Hawks realize they only have about three seasons to work with.
     
    Biggest disappointment:
    McClure: Robin Lehner will not seize the position from Crawford, leaving the Hawks with two huge question marks in net at the end of the season
    Pullega: I’d say Nylander, but that would imply expectations. Let’s go with Gus. 35 points.
    Hess: That Pullega called Tampa “Ning.” Also that the Hawks have a lot of high scoring forwards and solid goaltending but still miss the playoffs because of the blue line being so bad
    Rankin: Colliton’s adherence to a hybrid man-to-man system that doesn’t work with this lineup.
    Feather: There are no disappointments in a 102 point campaign – only slight annoyances. I’ll go with Brent Seabrook and somehow still strong-arming his way on this roster when he may not be the 8th best d-men in the organ-I-zation.
    Fels: Hawks trade Connor Murphy because everyone else is unwanted by every other team.
     
    Western Champ:
    McClure: Colorado
    Pullega: Sharks
    Hess: Colorado
    Rankin: Colorado
    Feather: HAWKS, my FRENT
    Fels: San Jose (except I really think it’s going to be the team down I-55 but I can’t say it)
     
    Eastern Champ:
    McClure: Tampa
    Pullega: Ning
    Hess: Toronna
    Rankin: Boston
    Feather: Pittsburgh
    Fels: Tampa
     
    Cup champ:
    McClure: Tampa
    Pullega: Tampa
    Hess: Toronto
    Rankin: Boston
    Feather: Pittsburgh
    Fels: Tampa
  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Nashville Predators

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Nashville Predators

    Everyone’s favorite darling, basically because national media types love to get drunk there for free and it’s not cold. Generally that has shielded everyone’s eyes from this being a pretty repugnant organization run by a ghoul in David Poile, who just engaged in the long-running hockey and Southern tradition of when things go wrong blame the black guy. It’s also put the wool over most experts’ eyes that the Preds have taken two straight division championships and done just north of dick with them, or that Ryan Johansen blows, or Eli Tolvanen didn’t redefine the sport upon arrival, or Roman Josi is starting to age, or half a dozen other things. Is it finally going to, thankfully, crash down around their ears this year?

    2018-2019

    47-29-6  100 points  (1st in Central, out in 1st round)

    2.88 GF/G (18th)  2.59 GA/G (4th)  +24 GD

    52.1 CF% (7th)  51.1 xGF% (13th)

    12.9 PP% (31st)  82.1 PK% (6th)

    Goalies: Same crew. Pekka Rinne will take the starter’s role as he has done in Music City since before Marvel Studios existed. He was more than acceptable last year with a .918. But that was down from the previous season, and he is 37 now and one wonders if that’s a slide that’s just going to continue. No one outruns time forever. Encouragingly for the Preds, Rinne did get stronger as the season went along last year, with a .913 in February and a .927 in March after a very shaky winter period. Didn’t really save him in the playoffs though, where he put up his second consecutive .904 in seven games against the Stars. And that’s usually the story for Rinne when the games really matter, as other than that one run to the Final he’s been nothing more than ordinary in the spring. And he’s running out of chances.

    There are probably some in the Preds braintrust that hoped Juuse Saros would take the job from Rinne last year. He wasn’t bad, but he didn’t outperform Rinne and if the Preds are going to move on from a club legend while he’s still playing the difference has to be clear. Saros is only 24 and has time on his side, and if he sticks around his career .920 one might think that could be enough to usurp the incumbent, should his age-induced slide continue. Either way, the Predators are solid here.

    Defense: Well it must be pretty damn good if they thought they didn’t need PK Subban anymore, huh? Must be nice when you can jettison the d-man who had the best metrics on the team.

    It’ll put more pressure on Roman Josi, whose influence hasn’t been as great the past two or three seasons but still puts up points. Matthias Ekholm should be his partner, as Ryan Ellis was completely exposed taking on top pairing assignments in the playoffs. He’s a great bum-slayer but don’t put him up against real players, or you’ll pay the penalty.

    There’s also a lot of faith in Dante Fabbro, who was tossed into the deep end of the playoffs after being a point-per-game at BU the past two seasons. He could end up driving things on the second pairing, either alongside Ellis or forcing him down to the third pairing where he started in the first place. Then again, that’s probably not what you want out of a d-man you’re paying $6.2M until the Earth’s heat death. More brilliant work from Poile.

    They’ll round it out with Matt Irwin, Yannick Weber, and Dan Hamhuis‘s slowly-turning-to-dust bones, and they’ve definitely got this. Again, solid, but if Josi isn’t around Norris-level discussion, it’s short a top-pairing guy.

    Forwards: The headlines are Matt Duchene finally came “home,” if home is the place where you’ve made it clear you want to play for about five years because you’re a true Canadian shit-kicker. Duchene will certainly juice the second line, whether from the wing or in the middle.

    The Preds as always will do it through a strength-in-numbers method. Their only proven top line talent is Filip Forsberg and he’s made of graham crackers. Viktor Arvidsson is probably a genuine top-liner as well or a tick below. Ryan Johansen is completely overmatched as a #1, at least when he’s not playing for a contract to blow on a lifetime supply of ding-dongs, but they’ll keep selling it. Mikael Granlund will get a full season in yellow before hitting free agency, which probably means a big season for him. Granlund’s and Duchene’s presence will shove Kyle Turris down the lineup where he will hope no one notices he’s not worth $6M a year either. Same goes for Colton Sissons, and Craig Smith, and Calle Jarnkrok, Marriage counselor Austin Watson is still here to fill out Nashville’s absolute bastard quota. It might not have the highest of ceilings but this crew probably has the highest floor.

    Prediction: My comrade in arms Fifth Feather thinks this squad is headed for a collapse. I wish I could get there, though the chance that Peter Laviolette‘s style finally is too much for the players is non-zero. The chance for Pekka Rinne to look his age is also non-zero. But the chance of both Rinne and Saros being bad is pretty close to zero. The defense certainly lost most of its fun to New Jersey, but it’s still more than enough as long as they keep Ellis away from anything flammable. They’ll be more than that if Fabbro is the real deal. The forwards carry more than enough speed and dash to light up most teams.

    There isn’t a guarantee in the West to expose Johansen or outgun them, but they can also lose to anyone as they did last year. They very easily could win the division again. They could very easily eat it early with the wrong matchup. If that happens again, there could be changes.

    But they’ll still be assholes.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

    Toronto

    Arizona

    Calgary

    Edmonton

    Los Angeles

    San Jose 

    Vancouver

    Vegas

    Colorado

    Dallas

    Minnesota

     

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Minnesota Wild

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Minnesota Wild

    There are few teams around that I can definitely say the Hawks will finish ahead of. And there’s only one in the division I can be certain of, and it’s this outfit. Or. to put it more accurately, if the Hawks don’t finish ahead of this collection of used rags and grill scrapings, everyone is fired. Let’s look in on this fine mess…

    20180-2019

    37-36-9  83 (!) points

    2.56 GF/G (27th)  2.84 GA/G (12th)  -23 GD

    50.9 CF% (11th)   54.1 xGF% (5th)

    20.3 PP% (14th)  81.7 PK% (7th)

    Goalies: So here’s a thing that Minnesota can’t seem to wrap their frozen brains around — their goalies were bad last year, and Devan Dubnyk has been kinda bad for a while now. Sure, .913 doesn’t look all that bad from Doobie on the surface. Except he had the best expected SV% in the league thanks to Bruce Boudreau trying to do everything he can to shield him. And he had the third worst difference at evens between his expected save-percentage and actual, behind Jonathan Quick and Martin Jones. That’s not a neighborhood you want to be putting down roots. It was the same the season before, and Dubnyk is 33 so he’s probably not going to jump forward at this point. The Wild got the best out of him, and now they’re going to have to smoke the resin.

    Stalock wasn’t any better, and if the Wild are hoping for a .915-.920 that he’s spasmed out a couple times as a backup in Minny and San Jose, they might be looking down the tracks for a very long time. What’s so weird about the Wild is that even with this roster, Boudreau was able to keep them getting the majority of attempts and chances and severely limit what their goalies had to do. And they couldn’t do it. And there’s little reason to think they will now. Combine that with a distinct lack of finish and you get…well, make your own whoopee cushion sound.

    Defense: It’s the same crew as it’s been, though they will get Matt Dumba back after he missed more than half the season last year. That’s not insignificant, and along with Jared Spurgeon that’s all the Wild’s get-up-and-go from the back. Dumba was on pace for his second-straight 50+ point season before a torn pectoral ended things prematurely. Spurgeon’s influence started to slip a bit last season. He was still ahead of the team rate on his metrics, but not by the wide margins he used to be. Perhaps having to cover for Dumba hurt him and they can set that right now. Ryan Suter is getting up there but can still economize his game to remain effective. Once again, Jonas Brodin will be solid but not much more. The third pairing will be some concoction they pull out of a steaming cauldron of Nick Seeler and Greg Pateryn and Brad Hunt and whatever other eye of newt they find on the ground.

    Forwards: And here’s your big problem. There isn’t a first-liner anywhere to be found, so they’ll have to shove Eric Staal, the eight minutes Zach Parise‘s back isn’t a puppet show, and Mats Zuccarello up there. Or Jason Zucker and however he’s decided to pronounce his name this season. Or they’ll have to force-feed Kevin Fiala, the first version of Eli Tolvanen, trying to prove the Preds wrong in that he can be a genuine top six forward in the league. Can they conjure another miracle out of Ryan Donato? His 16 points in 22 games after being acquired for Charlie Coyle suggest there might be something there. But doing it in 20 games that don’t matter and over a full 82 are different matters. Mikko Koivu is 187 years old and wasn’t good enough when he was 27 to do the things the Wild needed him to. Ryan Hartman somehow has ended up here, though St. Paul tends to be the last stop for the bewildered and lost. No matter what kind of magic and voodoo Gabby cooks up to keep the Wild in the right end of the ice, there’s not nearly enough here to make it really count unless a couple players get some spirits to conjure shooting-percentage spikes.

    Prediction: It’s funny how the Hawks season is being viewed as some springboard to better and the Wild seem truly and deeply boned, and there was one point between them. Yet the Hawks do have some youth and growth on the roster and in the system. The Wild have lottery tickets like Fiala or Donato. With the goaltending heading south, there just isn’t enough scoring, or close to it, for the Wild to get around a playoff spot. Maybe if it’s truly awful they can start over, which they’ve needed to do for about two seasons.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

    Toronto

    Arizona

    Calgary

    Edmonton

    Los Angeles

    San Jose 

    Vancouver

    Vegas

    Colorado

    Dallas

  • It’s Probably Time For Pat Foley To Go

    It’s Probably Time For Pat Foley To Go

    Let me contrast two organizations in this town. A month or so ago, a brilliantly researched and written piece about the Bears’ throwback jerseys by Jack Silverstein at Windy City Grid Iron pointed out the problems with said jerseys. That would be that they came from a time when black players were banned from the NFL, and how awkward it seemed that the Bears would not be wearing it. This caused the Bears themselves to address it head on in the week leading up to the game, releasing a video with several players commenting on the debate, problem, and why they felt it was important for them to wear the jerseys. For it being staged, I actually thought it was pretty well done. It certainly wasn’t the Bears hiding or skirting the issue, we can say that.

    So, do you think the Hawks will be addressing this?

    I wouldn’t try to tell you this is the exact same thing. One is directly from the organization and one is something of an offhand remark by an announcer. But they come from the same place, and carry some of the same issues, and both can be damaging.

    Believe me, I know all the arguments that are coming from the people who I would bet good money own a pair of Zubas or six. “It was just a joke.” “It’s Pat Foley, he’s old.” “Well, that does sound like a shortstops name!” Heard it all before, will hear it all again.

    At the base of it, however innocent or off the cuff it was, it reinforces that if you have a Hispanic last name, hockey isn’t for you. You don’t belong. However softly it might do that, it still does that. Which seems like maybe not the best method of carrying out, “Hockey is for everyone.” Certainly, participation in hockey faces what we’ll call an uncertain future if they don’t engage with and get Hispanic kids involved. Also, the best player on the league’s signature team is Hispanic (Auston Matthews). Hockey is already seen, and often is, as a whites-only-and-keep-it-that-way. That doesn’t fly in this day and age.

    Now, is this alone a fireable offense from Foley? I struggle to get there, but I could see where people might. I think an earnest apology on the next game broadcast would suffice, along with an acknowledgment from the Hawks themselves. The Hawks do a fair amount of outreach with minority communities here in town, and this would run counter to that and something they definitely should want to get out in front of to not undo any of that work. Though man would I want to be a fly on the wall with whatever team employee has to tell Foley to do this.

    This would be an opportunity for the Hawks to stand out from the league again, on a very important issue. It could reinforce the work they’ve already done, if they handle it correctly.

    While it may not warrant a dismissal on its own, as yet another piece of evidence in the case against Foley, it’s getting pretty pretty mountainous. And I reiterate, I grew up with Foley and Tallon on my headphones way past my bedtime broadcasting from Chicago Stadium. I know exactly what he means to Hawks fans, because he means that to me. Doesn’t mean I can ignore what’s gone on here the past few years.

    The biggest complaint you get from everywhere is that Foley hasn’t been able to hide his displeasure with the team. Which is fine.  We don’t want simple water-carriers in the booth (though that hasn’t stopped him and Edzo from doing just that in regards to certain players). Criticism is welcome and vital. But it goes beyond that when Foley makes it clear how much he’d rather be doing something else and how hard it is to watch this team.

    Sure, we do that here, but it isn’t our job to sell the product at all. We’re supposed to tell you what we think. It’s all we do. And while that has a place in a broadcast, it can’t be all of it. Ask Len Kasper or Jason Benetti how you present a team that sucks in a fun way for the viewer. And they either do it or had to do it every damn day.

    Add to that Foley is usually behind the play, or misidentifying everyone, or just grab-assing it with Olczyk, and you get a pretty unlistenable broadcast. This is the Hawks, it’s a job most every up-and-coming play-by-play guy would remove a digit or two for.

    Everyone loses the fastball. Throw some casual racism on this pile, and what you’re left with is something the Hawks simply don’t need anymore, and could enhance. It’s time.

  • Pictures Of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Preview: Jonathan Toews

    Pictures Of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Preview: Jonathan Toews

    We’ll end our player previews with the captain, Captain Marvel as we dubbed him 11 years ago, whom most folks are taking as a sure bet. I’m not quite so convinced, but he’s the one player of the “the core” whose aging is being planned for, through the drafting of Kirby Dach. Toews was able to shut the critics down last year, with his biggest point- and goal-total of his career at age 3o. Maybe there is life after 30? We try and prove it every day (well, some of us). Can Toews keep the wheel in the sky turning? The variables on his team may hold the answer.

    2018-2019

    82 GP – 35 G – 46 A – 81 P 

    50.1 CF% (+1.32 Rel)   55.5% OZS

    44.4 xGF% (-0.75 Rel) 

    21:00 Average TOI

    A Brief History: After the previous season, it was popularly thought that Toews was most definitely on the back nine of his career. A measly 52 points and 20 goals, the third straight season he hadn’t cracked 60 points, and we all at least wondered if he had finally moved into the final phase of his career as something of just a checking center. But if you looked a little deeper, you noticed that his SH% had cratered for two years, and his metrics were actually some of the best in recent memory. It wasn’t a huge leap to conclude that with a couple more bounces he still had songs to sing offensively. And he did, with a return to his career SH%, a little more tilt of his use to the offensive zone, and a newish, ready-fire-aim slant to his game that saw him put up a career-high in shots (new goalie pad rules probably didn’t hurt either). Tazer proved that he wasn’t ready to be taken out back quite yet, and there were some games that made you remember what it used to be like when he just decided the Hawks were going to win that night. Of course, it wasn’t enough, but that was more about the help than Toews.

    It Was The Best Of Times: This can actually go one of two ways to be the best outcome, though sadly neither of them is the most likely. One is that David Kampf and some combo of Ryan Carpenter or Anton Wedin prove they can handle the defensive, harder shifts and assignments and Toews can continue to slant more offensively than he had previously in his career. His SH% stays around his career norm or even spikes, and the Hawks get another 30-35 goals again. Also, he finally remembers the “jam play” from the corner when he gets the puck down there on the power play, not that he shouldn’t always be somewhere else with the man-advantage.

    Or, Kirby Dach balls out in the five games he’s given and sticks, Dylan Strome takes another step forward, and Toews can merely concentrate on the defensive side of the puck and what you get from him offensively is something of a bonus. Stick him with Saad and Kubalik or the like and having a checking line-plus.  Were that to happen it might only be 20-25 goals and 50 points again, but from a center who is second or third on the offensive pecking order that would actually be a bonanza. Think of him as older, non-fuckstick Nazem Kadri.

    It Was The BLURST Of Times: Strome stalls out, Dach is sent back to beat up on children for another season (and to stave off his contract for another year) and Toews is asked to both check and score at age 31. He can’t quite find the juice in his legs every night, which sees his defensive game suffer while needing more help in the offensive end, at least forechecking, than he did in the past. Because he is starting more in his defensive zone, the metrics continue to slide and he can’t push the play himself to get the chances he needs. His SH% slides because he’s getting worse chances, and we’re left with yet another mirroring of Anze Kopitar‘s current cycle. And once again fans and writers begin to lament that he has three years left on still one of the biggest contracts in the league.

    Prediction: I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as the latter section. I’m also highly skeptical that Dach is going to be given a proper chances to stick, which means the Hawks will absolutely need #1 center production from Toews again. They will try and cover for him defensively by having Kampf and Carpenter take those shifts on to start. But the lack of spark, and Jeremy Colliton‘s lack of slotting players for their shifts, is probably going to see Toews take on more shifts out of his own zone, slightly. Toews benefitted from the power play’s midseason nuclear streak, and I also remain unconvinced that will happen again.

    I also feel like Toews is a good barometer for what this season is supposed to be in the Hawks’ plans, because the front office would not leave him in the dark about what their intentions were. If this is still another “rebuild” season, we probably won’t see the eat-your-heart-in-front-of-you Toews that we did get on select nights last year. We’ll get more of a professorial Toews, guiding Strome and possibly Dach through the waters. If they told him this is playoffs-or-else, we’ll probably see that fire in his pupils on occasion again.

    Toews also is the barometer on the coach. Because he’s the captain, he will give every effort to hold the ship together. It’s what he does. But if Toews starts rolling his eyes or not believing in what he’s being sold, you’re going to know instantly. It happened with Quenneville, so you best believe it can happen with Beto O’Colliton.

    Still seeing Toews clear 30 goals and 70 points. How he does it will go a long way to telling you what kind of team you have here.

    Previous Player Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

    Ryan Carpenter

    Alex DeBrincat

    David Kampf

    Patrick Kane

    Alex Nylander

    Brendan Perlini

    Brandon Saad

    Zack Smith

    Andrew Shaw

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Dallas Stars

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Dallas Stars

    There seems to be this misconception that the Stars made it back to the playoffs and to the second round of the playoffs last year because of a dynamic young roster playing entertaining hockey. This couldn’t be farther from the truth, as coach Jim Montgomery authored a second-half charge by boring the utter shit out of everyone and trying to copy what Barry Trotz was doing with the Isles. They got a Vezina-finalist worthy season out of Ben Bishop, which was the main catalyst. So which way does Montgomery play this now? Stick with the effective but limited, and coma-inducing, style that got the Stars into the playoffs? Or retry finding something more expansive that might be harder to pull off but leads to bigger rewards down the line?

    2018-2019

    43-32-7  93 points (4th in Central, out in 2nd round)

    2.55 GF/G (29th)  2.44 GA/G (2nd)

    48.1 CF% (23rd)  50.2 xGF% (15th)

    21.0 PP% (11th)  82.8 PK% (5th)

    Goalies: The Stars get to return both halves of their duo this year, and it starts with THE BISHOP! Whenever Bishop is healthy, you get Vezina-level play from him. The problem is that remains a huge “if.” Bishop only made it to the post 45 times last year, and the Stars probably are going to need more from him this time around. Even if he is healthy, they’re probably not going to get .934 from him again, though they can still expect mid-.920s.

    Anton Khudobin finally found success outside Boston last year,  flourishing behind the heavy shielding he got from the Stars and their system (expected save-percentage of .925 at evens). Still, Khudobin’s .923 SV% was by far the best he’d managed in five seasons, and to expect him to get back to that, no matter the defensive shielding, is kind of pie-eyed. He’s also 33, so going up from where he was last campaign is probably not a probability either.

    The goalies will be good. Bishop always has potential to be great. They definitely provide a floor for the Stars that they can’t fall through, which is around the bottom of the playoff picture.

    Defense: Perhaps the reason Montgomery opted for the Mourinho approach to hockey was that he ended up pairing his only two puck-movers in John Klingbergy and Miro Heiskanen. That left him with only pluggers and punters on the next two pairings, so better to just ask them to do what they do best, i.e. roadblocks. The two Finns are wonderful players and really do push around most everyone they come across when together.

    It’s pretty much the same crew now, though they added Andrej Sekera just in case he isn’t clinically dead (he is). Stephen Johns started camp with the Stars but started feeling his post-concussion problems again, and one might have to suggest his career is over. Jamie Oleksiak will sink to the third pairing where he belongs, to make room for any Esa Lindell growth. But it feels like we’ve been hearing about that one for a while now and still haven’t seen it. At 25 and in his fourth season, it’s definitely a “shit-now” kind of season.

    It’s a fine collection even if it’s really only the two Norris candidates in Klingberg and Heikanen at the top. If Montgomery wants to show any adventure in the team, he’ll split those two up. If they’re together, we can probably guess it’s going to be more three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust hockey, if we can keep mixing our sports metaphors (and I can, it’s my fucking blog).

    Forwards: The name in lights here is Joe Pavelski, whom Dough Wilson deemed surplus to requirements at the price and age he was. Which should give everyone a second of pause. At 35, Pavelski’s days in the middle probably should be over, but it’s hard to spot a center who can maximize his still top-tier finishing ability other than Tyler Seguin, who already has his wingers. Or Pavelski could play there and Jamie Benn can not-munch his way to 50 points on the second line, but again, same problem.

    As it always is with the Stars, the rest of the lineup is littered with products of the system who serve merely as foot-soldiers and insurance-carriers. It would be hard to convince me that Jason Dickinson, Roope Hintz, Radek Faksa, Mattias Janmark aren’t all the same person that the Stars have just cleaved in half a few times and watched them regenerate into two. They’re also throwing Cory Perry to the wall to see if the slime he’s made of sticks, which it won’t. Between him and Sekera the level of zombification in the dressing room is certainly over quota.

    But everyone below the top line are capable of carrying out the specific tasks that Montgomery sets out, which is keeping things tight and preventing goals. It feels like they’ll be doing that again.

    Prediction: You could roll out Bishop and Khudobin by themselves and probably guarantee 85 points. So the question is whether the Stars can add much to it. Pavelski adds some juice to the offense, but there’s no Logan Couture or Tomas Hertil for him to play off as there was in San Jose. If he plays on the top line, it’s probably a little more offense than Benn would get you there now but the problem of support scoring is still there. There’s just not a lot of goals here, although there doesn’t have to be considering the goalies and defensive ways. The division hasn’t taken too many steps forward. If the Hawks had made improvements, I would say the Stars’ spot is the one they can aim for. But they haven’t. Around the 8th seed is more than possible for them again.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

    Toronto

    Arizona

    Calgary

    Edmonton

    Los Angeles

    San Jose 

    Vancouver

    Vegas

    Colorado

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Colorado Avalanche

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Colorado Avalanche

    There probably isn’t a team that will be checked in on Gamecenter by non-partisans more than the Colorado Avalanche. After sneaking into the playoffs and then pulling out the Flames’ organs one-by-one in alphabetical order before giving the Sharks everything they wanted, the Avs have added a genuine center and are going to have a full season of Cale Makar. But they’ve also lost Tyson Barrie, and Bowen Byram won’t get his audition until at least March or April, though likely next season. They seem poised to rise among the top of the Central. But are they?

    2018-2019

    38-30-14  90 points (5th in Central, out in 2nd round)

    3.15 GF/G (10th)  2.98 GA/G (16th) +14 GD

    50.0 CF% (13th)  49.8 xGF% (16th)

    22.0 PP% (7th)  78.7 PK% (25th)

    Goalies: Once again the reins will be handed to Phillip Grubauer, only this time the Avs are a little more sure of what they have. The first half of last year saw both Grubs and the now-departed Semyon Varlamov stake a claim to the job, and then hand it back about seven minutes later to the other one, and then the whole cycle would start all over again. But the second half saw Grubauer take the job by the throat and keep it. Grubs went .929 in February, .955 in March, .937 in April, and a .925 in the playoffs. It’s what the Avs had wanted from the get-go, and had they gotten it they wouldn’t have been messing around with the rabble like the Hawks until the season’s final week.

    He’d better be good and healthy, because his backup is some Vaudevillian named Pavel Francouz, which is clearly a mash-up of the things the unwashed hate most to make a cartoon villain, and that’s the French and Russians. This sounds like something out of Bullwinkle. Needless to say, the Avs do not want to have to be counting on a 29-year-old journeyman with two games in the NHL for any length of time. It’s Grubauer, live without a net!

    Defense: The headline here is a full season of Cale Makar, who stepped into the playoffs for the Avs and not only didn’t look out of place but ran the show at parts. He was clearly college hockey’s best player and the mind reels at what he can do behind MacKinnon’s line. Still, it’s a lot to ask for a rookie d-man to come in and dominate from jump street, so at least at the start of the season he’ll be sheltered somewhat with Golf Cart Titan Erik Johnson and others taking the more dungeon shifts.

    And after the way it’s shaken out, this actually isn’t that impressive of a unit. There was a moment when they looked like they would roll with Barrie, Makar, and Byram on three different pairs to be able to push the play every minute of every game. Well, Barrie went to Toronto and Byram didn’t make the team, so now it’s only Makar as a genuine puck-mover here. That’s never been Erik Johnson’s game. Maybe Samuel Girard has more to show in that category, but it doesn’t really look like his game either.Maybe you keep Makar and Mac K separate and let the latter do it himself for the 20-25 he’s on the ice anyway. Maybe fellow neophyte Connor Timmins has it in him from a third-pairing spot? We know for sure it ain’t Ian Cole (bay-bay!).

    This outfit could have had a lot of verve. Now it really doesn’t. Feels like they missed out on something here.

    Forwards: But I can’t argue with the Tyson Barrie trade too much, because it brought back Nazem Kadri who is just about perfect for this team. Yes, he’s a raging penis at times who is a danger to himself and his team at his worst moments. He’s also a unique center in that he can take on the toughest assignments while still scoring 50-60 points. The Avs had nothing behind Mac K last year down the middle, and now they have one of the rare Swiss Army knives in the league.

    That should leave Tyson Jost with some of the cushier shifts around, which he’ll need to produce more than the 25-odd points he got last year. They’ve also brought in Andre Burakovsky and Joonas Donskoi to try and bolster the support scoring, which they were badly in need of. Donskoi always seemed like he flattered to deceive in San Jose, and probably isn’t much more than a water-carrier. Still, they bolster the ranks.

    J.T. Compher will still score 17 goals against the Hawks this year.

    They’re taking a flier on Valeri Nichushkin, who just could never get quite right in Dallas but seems to have all the physical tools to be a contributor. But no goals last year is no goals last year.

    As always, it’ll come down to just how much of a star destroyer the top line can be, and they just brought Mikko Rantanen back into the fold for a cool $9.25M per year (Alex DeBrincat just passed out). They were among, if not the, best lines in hockey last year and there’s no reason to think they can’t match that. MacKinnon will benefit from having Kadri around to take the other teams’ top lines on, so he could produce even more if you can believe it. As if the 99 points last year weren’t enough or something.

    The Avs will remain top-heavy, but not quite as much as they were. ;

    Prediction: Even with just a full year of Grubauer playing well, this team would move on from the 90 points it delivered last season. I’m skeptical of the defense but if they can find someone other than Makar to move the play, they should be fine. Otherwise they’re basically what they were last year in this spot. Kadri is a big boost, and if a youngster like Jost pops or they can shake something out of Burakovsky the Caps never could, so much the better. They could have three lines instead of one and a half. Are they ready to roll out of the West? That might be a bridge too far, but then again the West doesn’t have an overwhelming favorite anymore. And the Central has its own issues. Easily can see them at least asking questions about winning the division.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

    Toronto

    Arizona

    Calgary

    Edmonton

    Los Angeles

    San Jose 

    Vancouver

    Vegas

     

     

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Dylan Strome

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Dylan Strome

    A couple of weeks ago I read a metaphor that was being applied to a certain quarterback of a certain local football team, but as I thought more about it, could also apply to Stan Bowman. Ol’ Stan is like golf – you can play up-and-down golf for 17 holes, constantly battling relief and frustration with your own shots, but then you approach your second shot on 18 and crank it 3 yards short of the pin, and think to yourself, “This really ain’t so bad. I will come back and do it again because I am good.” Bowman has had plenty of hits and misses in recent years, but the Dylan Strome trade is that birdie-on-18 that makes you think this guy really does still have the good GM inside him.

    2018-19 Stats

    *all stats are with Hawks

    58 GP – 17 G – 34 A – 51 P

    46.18 CF% (-3.20 CF% Rel) – 56.66 oZS%

    43.08 xGF% (-3.26 xGF% Rel)

    Avg. TOI: 17:03

    A Brief History: Strome was widely considered one of the top prospects in hockey for a few years after being picked third overall in 2015, after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. The only problem with that sentence is that generally, guys picked that high in the draft don’t remain “prospects” very long. It’s plenty understandable for a No. 3 pick to not be in the NHL right away (we may even see that with Kirby Dach, but I digress), but that Strome couldn’t even carve out a regular role for himself on the 2017-18 Coyotes seemed a bit problematic. But Stan and company clearly saw something there – probably the utter lack of quality forwards to pair Strome with in the desert – and realized that John Chayka might be analytically inclined but he’s still a huge dumbass, and was go get Strome and Brendan Perlini for Nick Schmaltz.

    The change of scenery was huge for Strome, as he got to pair with his old OHL teammate in Alex DeBrincat, and those two were joined by some guy named Patrick Kane. Strome’s production took off from there, and after having just 3 goals and 6 points in his first 20 games of the season in Glendale, he came to Chicago and produced at a near point per game pace, with 17 goals and 34 assists giving him 51 points in 58 appearances. There are some concerns about those relative CF% and xGF%, but if he can take a step forward in the production, it will help mitigate some of those.

    It Was the Best of Times: Strome having a full offseason and camp as a Hawk and being able to get more familiar with Jeremy Colliton‘s system and his teammates results in a huge boom, and he launches himself toward the ceiling that many teams and scouts saw and dreamed on when he was in the draft. Playing in the full 82, Strome steps his production rate to just above a point-per-game rate, and gives the Hawks 90 points from the “second” line. In the process, he solidifies himself as a candidate to be the top center on the Hawks moving forward, and the future looks much brighter for the pivots in Chicago. Oh, and he signs a contract extension with an AAV below $9M.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: Strome reverts to the guy he was in Arizona, and solidifies himself as one of the bigger NHL busts in recent memory. Despite playing with Top Cat and Kane for most the season again, he just can’t find a scoring touch and somehow manages to just never be involved in goals by other of those two. He ends up with just 40 points on the year, and the shot and expected goal shares get worse in the process. His feet also morph into literal cinderblocks.

    Prediction: I tweeted at Pullega the other day that this season, 12-17-88 has a chance to be A) a whole lot of fuckin’ fun and B) the most productive line in hockey. Kane is a near lock for 90-ish points and 100+ is completely reasonable. Top Cat is gonna give you 70+ and maybe can get into the 90+ range. Strome is the biggest question mark on the line, but I think that playing with those two a lot, which he should and hopefully will, will result in at least 60 points, even by accident. If he becomes an active participant in the production on that line, which I think he will, he can get 80 points himself and potentially even the 90 I mentioned in the Best of Times. My official prediction for Strome – 27 goals, 81 points. Combining that with my 43 goals and 83 points from Top Cat and 45/108 from Kane, we have one line accounting for 115 goals and 272 points. Am I optimistic? Yes. Am I crazy? Maybe not. But I know two things – that would indeed be in the running for most productive line, and also that may still not be enough for the Hawks to make the playoffs, because hockey is fucked and the Hawks blue line might be too.

    Stats via NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.

    Previous Player Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

    Ryan Carpenter

    Alex DeBrincat

    David Kampf

    Patrick Kane

    Alex Nylander

    Brendan Perlini

    Brandon Saad

    Zack Smith

    Andrew Shaw

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Vegas Golden Knights

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Vegas Golden Knights

    How does an expansion franchise follow up one of the most improbable runs in professional sports history after reaching the Stanley Cup final in their first year of existence? Well, in the case of the Vegas Golden Knights, they have zero self awareness regarding all of the good fortune that fell their way the year prior, and bitch relentless about a perceived screw job at the hands of the refs that apparently led to their ouster. Furthermore, their cap situation is already a complete nightmare going into their third season of existence thanks to Brain Genious and Lorne Molleken Puncher George McPhee, who got kicked upstairs in the middle of this summer. The entire on-ice product is a house of cards that could come down at any point, but they are basically guaranteed a playoff spot given the state of affairs in the Western Conference and specifically the Pacific Division. What a competitive league!

    2018-2019

    43-32-7 93PTS, 3rd in Pacific
    3.00 GF/G (13th), 2.78 GA/G (10th), +19 GD
    54.36% CF (3rd), 54.66% xGF (3rd)
    16.7% PP (24th), 80.8% PK (14th)

    Goaltending: We talk a lot of shit here at the FFUD Offices, and a topic of fixation two years ago was that after a spike in performance in his first year in Vegas sporting a .929 overall save percentage, Marc-Andre Fleury would come crashing back to reality with a .907 the following year. It wasn’t quite that precipitous a drop to the .913 he put up last year (.917 at evens), and with goaltending down league wide that number didn’t look as bad as it would have in years past. But it still was a major contributing factor in the Knights dropping to third in the division after winning it the year prior. Flower will turn 35 in November, and while the general rule is that goalies age a bit slower than skaters, keep in mind that he’s been in the league since he was 19, with multiple deep playoff runs. There are a ton of miles on him, and asking for the 61 starts he gave last year is asking for trouble. Subban The Younger, Malcolm, will resume his role as Fleury’s backup, and he was servicable if not scintillating in 21 starts and a .902 save percentage. Realistically he should be making at least 6 to 8 more starts this coming season, and if he can’t improve a little bit on his .912 at evens, they’ll have to work very hard in spotting him in favorable matchups. Assuming Fleury stays in one piece, which is always a question.

    Defensemen: Once again the Vegas blue line managed to not get their skulls caved in while regularly trotting out and giving meaningful minutes to Derek Engelland, but as they have shown over two years, with forwards as fast as they’ve got, they can pretty much blindly fire the puck out of the zone and the wings will track it down. Colin McDonald and his Wisniewski-eque wind-up were cap casualties and sent to Buffalo for nothing, but Nick Schmidt and Shea Theodore remain. Theodore still has all the tools to be an actual #1, but hasn’t quite put it together yet at 24, but he’ll get the top assignments whether he’s ready or not. Blog favorite Nick Schmidt is one of the few Vegas defensemen that can skate himself out of trouble if he needs to, but his problem has been staying healthy, as he’s never put together a full 82 game season. Brayden McNabb is a poor man’s Radko Gudas, and Nick Holden couldn’t find his way in the defensive zone if he were led by sherpas, but having a forward corps as fast as the Knights do will continue to mask a multitude of defensive sins.

    Forwards: Even though his goal scoring predictably fell off the table last year, William Karlsson still centered one of the most dynamic lines in hockey with Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault on his wings. The three of them together had a 54% share, and regularly drew top assignments, particularly on the road. Karlsson’s drop from 43 to 24 goals (and a commensurate drop from a 23.2 shooting percentage down to a more human 14.2) allowed the Knights to sidestep one of the bigger RFA deals they may have had to dole out, and were able to give Karlsson a relatively reasonable $5.9 mildo over the max 8 years. Of course, what they saved on that deal, they immediately pissed away in wildly overpaying in extending  pre-deadline acquisition Mark Stone, who was promptly given $9.5 over 8 years. Now make no mistake, Mark Stone is a hell of a player. He drives possession and certainly has finish, and is a large boy at 6’4″ 220. But his two best marks in points per game are 1.06 and .94, which are the last two seasons, neither of which he played 82 games in, and he is also now 27. Even as salaries climb year after year, this is still a big overpayment for a guy who is being paid the same as Nikita Kucherov, who has 228 points in that same time frame. He’ll likely be joined on the second line by Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty, which sounded a lot more fearsome back in 2012. Patches is looking to put together a rebound season after failing to hit the 30 goal mark for the second year in a row after doing so 6 times in the past. They’ll need to get more out of Alex Tuch than the 20 goals he put up for what they’re paying him, particularly if Pacioretty has indeed aged out of effectiveness. Cody Eakin and Tomas Nosek provide plenty of bottom six speed and nuisance, and Ryan Reaves is still here to bark and fart and get skated around.

    Outlook: Once again, the Knights have enough forward depth and the Pacific is bad enough elsewhere that even if Fleury declines further or is hurt, there’s probably enough here to get one of the guaranteed spots in the Pacific. And undoubtedly there will be countless bouquets thrown at the Vegas brain trust for putting together this team if only because hockey journalists like visiting Vegas as much as opposing players do, completely ignoring the cap issues this team will have in perpetuity having now paid all of their inagural roster and losing some players (McDonald, regarded import Nikita Gusev) to do so. It’s probably not enough to come out of the West in June, because the first time took two months of Fleury heroics, but clearly stranger things have happened with this team already.