Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Hockey

  • Pictures Of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Preview: Jonathan Toews

    Pictures Of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Preview: Jonathan Toews

    We’ll end our player previews with the captain, Captain Marvel as we dubbed him 11 years ago, whom most folks are taking as a sure bet. I’m not quite so convinced, but he’s the one player of the “the core” whose aging is being planned for, through the drafting of Kirby Dach. Toews was able to shut the critics down last year, with his biggest point- and goal-total of his career at age 3o. Maybe there is life after 30? We try and prove it every day (well, some of us). Can Toews keep the wheel in the sky turning? The variables on his team may hold the answer.

    2018-2019

    82 GP – 35 G – 46 A – 81 P 

    50.1 CF% (+1.32 Rel)   55.5% OZS

    44.4 xGF% (-0.75 Rel) 

    21:00 Average TOI

    A Brief History: After the previous season, it was popularly thought that Toews was most definitely on the back nine of his career. A measly 52 points and 20 goals, the third straight season he hadn’t cracked 60 points, and we all at least wondered if he had finally moved into the final phase of his career as something of just a checking center. But if you looked a little deeper, you noticed that his SH% had cratered for two years, and his metrics were actually some of the best in recent memory. It wasn’t a huge leap to conclude that with a couple more bounces he still had songs to sing offensively. And he did, with a return to his career SH%, a little more tilt of his use to the offensive zone, and a newish, ready-fire-aim slant to his game that saw him put up a career-high in shots (new goalie pad rules probably didn’t hurt either). Tazer proved that he wasn’t ready to be taken out back quite yet, and there were some games that made you remember what it used to be like when he just decided the Hawks were going to win that night. Of course, it wasn’t enough, but that was more about the help than Toews.

    It Was The Best Of Times: This can actually go one of two ways to be the best outcome, though sadly neither of them is the most likely. One is that David Kampf and some combo of Ryan Carpenter or Anton Wedin prove they can handle the defensive, harder shifts and assignments and Toews can continue to slant more offensively than he had previously in his career. His SH% stays around his career norm or even spikes, and the Hawks get another 30-35 goals again. Also, he finally remembers the “jam play” from the corner when he gets the puck down there on the power play, not that he shouldn’t always be somewhere else with the man-advantage.

    Or, Kirby Dach balls out in the five games he’s given and sticks, Dylan Strome takes another step forward, and Toews can merely concentrate on the defensive side of the puck and what you get from him offensively is something of a bonus. Stick him with Saad and Kubalik or the like and having a checking line-plus.  Were that to happen it might only be 20-25 goals and 50 points again, but from a center who is second or third on the offensive pecking order that would actually be a bonanza. Think of him as older, non-fuckstick Nazem Kadri.

    It Was The BLURST Of Times: Strome stalls out, Dach is sent back to beat up on children for another season (and to stave off his contract for another year) and Toews is asked to both check and score at age 31. He can’t quite find the juice in his legs every night, which sees his defensive game suffer while needing more help in the offensive end, at least forechecking, than he did in the past. Because he is starting more in his defensive zone, the metrics continue to slide and he can’t push the play himself to get the chances he needs. His SH% slides because he’s getting worse chances, and we’re left with yet another mirroring of Anze Kopitar‘s current cycle. And once again fans and writers begin to lament that he has three years left on still one of the biggest contracts in the league.

    Prediction: I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as the latter section. I’m also highly skeptical that Dach is going to be given a proper chances to stick, which means the Hawks will absolutely need #1 center production from Toews again. They will try and cover for him defensively by having Kampf and Carpenter take those shifts on to start. But the lack of spark, and Jeremy Colliton‘s lack of slotting players for their shifts, is probably going to see Toews take on more shifts out of his own zone, slightly. Toews benefitted from the power play’s midseason nuclear streak, and I also remain unconvinced that will happen again.

    I also feel like Toews is a good barometer for what this season is supposed to be in the Hawks’ plans, because the front office would not leave him in the dark about what their intentions were. If this is still another “rebuild” season, we probably won’t see the eat-your-heart-in-front-of-you Toews that we did get on select nights last year. We’ll get more of a professorial Toews, guiding Strome and possibly Dach through the waters. If they told him this is playoffs-or-else, we’ll probably see that fire in his pupils on occasion again.

    Toews also is the barometer on the coach. Because he’s the captain, he will give every effort to hold the ship together. It’s what he does. But if Toews starts rolling his eyes or not believing in what he’s being sold, you’re going to know instantly. It happened with Quenneville, so you best believe it can happen with Beto O’Colliton.

    Still seeing Toews clear 30 goals and 70 points. How he does it will go a long way to telling you what kind of team you have here.

    Previous Player Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

    Ryan Carpenter

    Alex DeBrincat

    David Kampf

    Patrick Kane

    Alex Nylander

    Brendan Perlini

    Brandon Saad

    Zack Smith

    Andrew Shaw

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Dallas Stars

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Dallas Stars

    There seems to be this misconception that the Stars made it back to the playoffs and to the second round of the playoffs last year because of a dynamic young roster playing entertaining hockey. This couldn’t be farther from the truth, as coach Jim Montgomery authored a second-half charge by boring the utter shit out of everyone and trying to copy what Barry Trotz was doing with the Isles. They got a Vezina-finalist worthy season out of Ben Bishop, which was the main catalyst. So which way does Montgomery play this now? Stick with the effective but limited, and coma-inducing, style that got the Stars into the playoffs? Or retry finding something more expansive that might be harder to pull off but leads to bigger rewards down the line?

    2018-2019

    43-32-7  93 points (4th in Central, out in 2nd round)

    2.55 GF/G (29th)  2.44 GA/G (2nd)

    48.1 CF% (23rd)  50.2 xGF% (15th)

    21.0 PP% (11th)  82.8 PK% (5th)

    Goalies: The Stars get to return both halves of their duo this year, and it starts with THE BISHOP! Whenever Bishop is healthy, you get Vezina-level play from him. The problem is that remains a huge “if.” Bishop only made it to the post 45 times last year, and the Stars probably are going to need more from him this time around. Even if he is healthy, they’re probably not going to get .934 from him again, though they can still expect mid-.920s.

    Anton Khudobin finally found success outside Boston last year,  flourishing behind the heavy shielding he got from the Stars and their system (expected save-percentage of .925 at evens). Still, Khudobin’s .923 SV% was by far the best he’d managed in five seasons, and to expect him to get back to that, no matter the defensive shielding, is kind of pie-eyed. He’s also 33, so going up from where he was last campaign is probably not a probability either.

    The goalies will be good. Bishop always has potential to be great. They definitely provide a floor for the Stars that they can’t fall through, which is around the bottom of the playoff picture.

    Defense: Perhaps the reason Montgomery opted for the Mourinho approach to hockey was that he ended up pairing his only two puck-movers in John Klingbergy and Miro Heiskanen. That left him with only pluggers and punters on the next two pairings, so better to just ask them to do what they do best, i.e. roadblocks. The two Finns are wonderful players and really do push around most everyone they come across when together.

    It’s pretty much the same crew now, though they added Andrej Sekera just in case he isn’t clinically dead (he is). Stephen Johns started camp with the Stars but started feeling his post-concussion problems again, and one might have to suggest his career is over. Jamie Oleksiak will sink to the third pairing where he belongs, to make room for any Esa Lindell growth. But it feels like we’ve been hearing about that one for a while now and still haven’t seen it. At 25 and in his fourth season, it’s definitely a “shit-now” kind of season.

    It’s a fine collection even if it’s really only the two Norris candidates in Klingberg and Heikanen at the top. If Montgomery wants to show any adventure in the team, he’ll split those two up. If they’re together, we can probably guess it’s going to be more three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust hockey, if we can keep mixing our sports metaphors (and I can, it’s my fucking blog).

    Forwards: The name in lights here is Joe Pavelski, whom Dough Wilson deemed surplus to requirements at the price and age he was. Which should give everyone a second of pause. At 35, Pavelski’s days in the middle probably should be over, but it’s hard to spot a center who can maximize his still top-tier finishing ability other than Tyler Seguin, who already has his wingers. Or Pavelski could play there and Jamie Benn can not-munch his way to 50 points on the second line, but again, same problem.

    As it always is with the Stars, the rest of the lineup is littered with products of the system who serve merely as foot-soldiers and insurance-carriers. It would be hard to convince me that Jason Dickinson, Roope Hintz, Radek Faksa, Mattias Janmark aren’t all the same person that the Stars have just cleaved in half a few times and watched them regenerate into two. They’re also throwing Cory Perry to the wall to see if the slime he’s made of sticks, which it won’t. Between him and Sekera the level of zombification in the dressing room is certainly over quota.

    But everyone below the top line are capable of carrying out the specific tasks that Montgomery sets out, which is keeping things tight and preventing goals. It feels like they’ll be doing that again.

    Prediction: You could roll out Bishop and Khudobin by themselves and probably guarantee 85 points. So the question is whether the Stars can add much to it. Pavelski adds some juice to the offense, but there’s no Logan Couture or Tomas Hertil for him to play off as there was in San Jose. If he plays on the top line, it’s probably a little more offense than Benn would get you there now but the problem of support scoring is still there. There’s just not a lot of goals here, although there doesn’t have to be considering the goalies and defensive ways. The division hasn’t taken too many steps forward. If the Hawks had made improvements, I would say the Stars’ spot is the one they can aim for. But they haven’t. Around the 8th seed is more than possible for them again.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

    Toronto

    Arizona

    Calgary

    Edmonton

    Los Angeles

    San Jose 

    Vancouver

    Vegas

    Colorado

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Colorado Avalanche

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Colorado Avalanche

    There probably isn’t a team that will be checked in on Gamecenter by non-partisans more than the Colorado Avalanche. After sneaking into the playoffs and then pulling out the Flames’ organs one-by-one in alphabetical order before giving the Sharks everything they wanted, the Avs have added a genuine center and are going to have a full season of Cale Makar. But they’ve also lost Tyson Barrie, and Bowen Byram won’t get his audition until at least March or April, though likely next season. They seem poised to rise among the top of the Central. But are they?

    2018-2019

    38-30-14  90 points (5th in Central, out in 2nd round)

    3.15 GF/G (10th)  2.98 GA/G (16th) +14 GD

    50.0 CF% (13th)  49.8 xGF% (16th)

    22.0 PP% (7th)  78.7 PK% (25th)

    Goalies: Once again the reins will be handed to Phillip Grubauer, only this time the Avs are a little more sure of what they have. The first half of last year saw both Grubs and the now-departed Semyon Varlamov stake a claim to the job, and then hand it back about seven minutes later to the other one, and then the whole cycle would start all over again. But the second half saw Grubauer take the job by the throat and keep it. Grubs went .929 in February, .955 in March, .937 in April, and a .925 in the playoffs. It’s what the Avs had wanted from the get-go, and had they gotten it they wouldn’t have been messing around with the rabble like the Hawks until the season’s final week.

    He’d better be good and healthy, because his backup is some Vaudevillian named Pavel Francouz, which is clearly a mash-up of the things the unwashed hate most to make a cartoon villain, and that’s the French and Russians. This sounds like something out of Bullwinkle. Needless to say, the Avs do not want to have to be counting on a 29-year-old journeyman with two games in the NHL for any length of time. It’s Grubauer, live without a net!

    Defense: The headline here is a full season of Cale Makar, who stepped into the playoffs for the Avs and not only didn’t look out of place but ran the show at parts. He was clearly college hockey’s best player and the mind reels at what he can do behind MacKinnon’s line. Still, it’s a lot to ask for a rookie d-man to come in and dominate from jump street, so at least at the start of the season he’ll be sheltered somewhat with Golf Cart Titan Erik Johnson and others taking the more dungeon shifts.

    And after the way it’s shaken out, this actually isn’t that impressive of a unit. There was a moment when they looked like they would roll with Barrie, Makar, and Byram on three different pairs to be able to push the play every minute of every game. Well, Barrie went to Toronto and Byram didn’t make the team, so now it’s only Makar as a genuine puck-mover here. That’s never been Erik Johnson’s game. Maybe Samuel Girard has more to show in that category, but it doesn’t really look like his game either.Maybe you keep Makar and Mac K separate and let the latter do it himself for the 20-25 he’s on the ice anyway. Maybe fellow neophyte Connor Timmins has it in him from a third-pairing spot? We know for sure it ain’t Ian Cole (bay-bay!).

    This outfit could have had a lot of verve. Now it really doesn’t. Feels like they missed out on something here.

    Forwards: But I can’t argue with the Tyson Barrie trade too much, because it brought back Nazem Kadri who is just about perfect for this team. Yes, he’s a raging penis at times who is a danger to himself and his team at his worst moments. He’s also a unique center in that he can take on the toughest assignments while still scoring 50-60 points. The Avs had nothing behind Mac K last year down the middle, and now they have one of the rare Swiss Army knives in the league.

    That should leave Tyson Jost with some of the cushier shifts around, which he’ll need to produce more than the 25-odd points he got last year. They’ve also brought in Andre Burakovsky and Joonas Donskoi to try and bolster the support scoring, which they were badly in need of. Donskoi always seemed like he flattered to deceive in San Jose, and probably isn’t much more than a water-carrier. Still, they bolster the ranks.

    J.T. Compher will still score 17 goals against the Hawks this year.

    They’re taking a flier on Valeri Nichushkin, who just could never get quite right in Dallas but seems to have all the physical tools to be a contributor. But no goals last year is no goals last year.

    As always, it’ll come down to just how much of a star destroyer the top line can be, and they just brought Mikko Rantanen back into the fold for a cool $9.25M per year (Alex DeBrincat just passed out). They were among, if not the, best lines in hockey last year and there’s no reason to think they can’t match that. MacKinnon will benefit from having Kadri around to take the other teams’ top lines on, so he could produce even more if you can believe it. As if the 99 points last year weren’t enough or something.

    The Avs will remain top-heavy, but not quite as much as they were. ;

    Prediction: Even with just a full year of Grubauer playing well, this team would move on from the 90 points it delivered last season. I’m skeptical of the defense but if they can find someone other than Makar to move the play, they should be fine. Otherwise they’re basically what they were last year in this spot. Kadri is a big boost, and if a youngster like Jost pops or they can shake something out of Burakovsky the Caps never could, so much the better. They could have three lines instead of one and a half. Are they ready to roll out of the West? That might be a bridge too far, but then again the West doesn’t have an overwhelming favorite anymore. And the Central has its own issues. Easily can see them at least asking questions about winning the division.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

    Toronto

    Arizona

    Calgary

    Edmonton

    Los Angeles

    San Jose 

    Vancouver

    Vegas

     

     

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Dylan Strome

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Dylan Strome

    A couple of weeks ago I read a metaphor that was being applied to a certain quarterback of a certain local football team, but as I thought more about it, could also apply to Stan Bowman. Ol’ Stan is like golf – you can play up-and-down golf for 17 holes, constantly battling relief and frustration with your own shots, but then you approach your second shot on 18 and crank it 3 yards short of the pin, and think to yourself, “This really ain’t so bad. I will come back and do it again because I am good.” Bowman has had plenty of hits and misses in recent years, but the Dylan Strome trade is that birdie-on-18 that makes you think this guy really does still have the good GM inside him.

    2018-19 Stats

    *all stats are with Hawks

    58 GP – 17 G – 34 A – 51 P

    46.18 CF% (-3.20 CF% Rel) – 56.66 oZS%

    43.08 xGF% (-3.26 xGF% Rel)

    Avg. TOI: 17:03

    A Brief History: Strome was widely considered one of the top prospects in hockey for a few years after being picked third overall in 2015, after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. The only problem with that sentence is that generally, guys picked that high in the draft don’t remain “prospects” very long. It’s plenty understandable for a No. 3 pick to not be in the NHL right away (we may even see that with Kirby Dach, but I digress), but that Strome couldn’t even carve out a regular role for himself on the 2017-18 Coyotes seemed a bit problematic. But Stan and company clearly saw something there – probably the utter lack of quality forwards to pair Strome with in the desert – and realized that John Chayka might be analytically inclined but he’s still a huge dumbass, and was go get Strome and Brendan Perlini for Nick Schmaltz.

    The change of scenery was huge for Strome, as he got to pair with his old OHL teammate in Alex DeBrincat, and those two were joined by some guy named Patrick Kane. Strome’s production took off from there, and after having just 3 goals and 6 points in his first 20 games of the season in Glendale, he came to Chicago and produced at a near point per game pace, with 17 goals and 34 assists giving him 51 points in 58 appearances. There are some concerns about those relative CF% and xGF%, but if he can take a step forward in the production, it will help mitigate some of those.

    It Was the Best of Times: Strome having a full offseason and camp as a Hawk and being able to get more familiar with Jeremy Colliton‘s system and his teammates results in a huge boom, and he launches himself toward the ceiling that many teams and scouts saw and dreamed on when he was in the draft. Playing in the full 82, Strome steps his production rate to just above a point-per-game rate, and gives the Hawks 90 points from the “second” line. In the process, he solidifies himself as a candidate to be the top center on the Hawks moving forward, and the future looks much brighter for the pivots in Chicago. Oh, and he signs a contract extension with an AAV below $9M.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: Strome reverts to the guy he was in Arizona, and solidifies himself as one of the bigger NHL busts in recent memory. Despite playing with Top Cat and Kane for most the season again, he just can’t find a scoring touch and somehow manages to just never be involved in goals by other of those two. He ends up with just 40 points on the year, and the shot and expected goal shares get worse in the process. His feet also morph into literal cinderblocks.

    Prediction: I tweeted at Pullega the other day that this season, 12-17-88 has a chance to be A) a whole lot of fuckin’ fun and B) the most productive line in hockey. Kane is a near lock for 90-ish points and 100+ is completely reasonable. Top Cat is gonna give you 70+ and maybe can get into the 90+ range. Strome is the biggest question mark on the line, but I think that playing with those two a lot, which he should and hopefully will, will result in at least 60 points, even by accident. If he becomes an active participant in the production on that line, which I think he will, he can get 80 points himself and potentially even the 90 I mentioned in the Best of Times. My official prediction for Strome – 27 goals, 81 points. Combining that with my 43 goals and 83 points from Top Cat and 45/108 from Kane, we have one line accounting for 115 goals and 272 points. Am I optimistic? Yes. Am I crazy? Maybe not. But I know two things – that would indeed be in the running for most productive line, and also that may still not be enough for the Hawks to make the playoffs, because hockey is fucked and the Hawks blue line might be too.

    Stats via NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.

    Previous Player Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

    Ryan Carpenter

    Alex DeBrincat

    David Kampf

    Patrick Kane

    Alex Nylander

    Brendan Perlini

    Brandon Saad

    Zack Smith

    Andrew Shaw

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Vegas Golden Knights

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Vegas Golden Knights

    How does an expansion franchise follow up one of the most improbable runs in professional sports history after reaching the Stanley Cup final in their first year of existence? Well, in the case of the Vegas Golden Knights, they have zero self awareness regarding all of the good fortune that fell their way the year prior, and bitch relentless about a perceived screw job at the hands of the refs that apparently led to their ouster. Furthermore, their cap situation is already a complete nightmare going into their third season of existence thanks to Brain Genious and Lorne Molleken Puncher George McPhee, who got kicked upstairs in the middle of this summer. The entire on-ice product is a house of cards that could come down at any point, but they are basically guaranteed a playoff spot given the state of affairs in the Western Conference and specifically the Pacific Division. What a competitive league!

    2018-2019

    43-32-7 93PTS, 3rd in Pacific
    3.00 GF/G (13th), 2.78 GA/G (10th), +19 GD
    54.36% CF (3rd), 54.66% xGF (3rd)
    16.7% PP (24th), 80.8% PK (14th)

    Goaltending: We talk a lot of shit here at the FFUD Offices, and a topic of fixation two years ago was that after a spike in performance in his first year in Vegas sporting a .929 overall save percentage, Marc-Andre Fleury would come crashing back to reality with a .907 the following year. It wasn’t quite that precipitous a drop to the .913 he put up last year (.917 at evens), and with goaltending down league wide that number didn’t look as bad as it would have in years past. But it still was a major contributing factor in the Knights dropping to third in the division after winning it the year prior. Flower will turn 35 in November, and while the general rule is that goalies age a bit slower than skaters, keep in mind that he’s been in the league since he was 19, with multiple deep playoff runs. There are a ton of miles on him, and asking for the 61 starts he gave last year is asking for trouble. Subban The Younger, Malcolm, will resume his role as Fleury’s backup, and he was servicable if not scintillating in 21 starts and a .902 save percentage. Realistically he should be making at least 6 to 8 more starts this coming season, and if he can’t improve a little bit on his .912 at evens, they’ll have to work very hard in spotting him in favorable matchups. Assuming Fleury stays in one piece, which is always a question.

    Defensemen: Once again the Vegas blue line managed to not get their skulls caved in while regularly trotting out and giving meaningful minutes to Derek Engelland, but as they have shown over two years, with forwards as fast as they’ve got, they can pretty much blindly fire the puck out of the zone and the wings will track it down. Colin McDonald and his Wisniewski-eque wind-up were cap casualties and sent to Buffalo for nothing, but Nick Schmidt and Shea Theodore remain. Theodore still has all the tools to be an actual #1, but hasn’t quite put it together yet at 24, but he’ll get the top assignments whether he’s ready or not. Blog favorite Nick Schmidt is one of the few Vegas defensemen that can skate himself out of trouble if he needs to, but his problem has been staying healthy, as he’s never put together a full 82 game season. Brayden McNabb is a poor man’s Radko Gudas, and Nick Holden couldn’t find his way in the defensive zone if he were led by sherpas, but having a forward corps as fast as the Knights do will continue to mask a multitude of defensive sins.

    Forwards: Even though his goal scoring predictably fell off the table last year, William Karlsson still centered one of the most dynamic lines in hockey with Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault on his wings. The three of them together had a 54% share, and regularly drew top assignments, particularly on the road. Karlsson’s drop from 43 to 24 goals (and a commensurate drop from a 23.2 shooting percentage down to a more human 14.2) allowed the Knights to sidestep one of the bigger RFA deals they may have had to dole out, and were able to give Karlsson a relatively reasonable $5.9 mildo over the max 8 years. Of course, what they saved on that deal, they immediately pissed away in wildly overpaying in extending  pre-deadline acquisition Mark Stone, who was promptly given $9.5 over 8 years. Now make no mistake, Mark Stone is a hell of a player. He drives possession and certainly has finish, and is a large boy at 6’4″ 220. But his two best marks in points per game are 1.06 and .94, which are the last two seasons, neither of which he played 82 games in, and he is also now 27. Even as salaries climb year after year, this is still a big overpayment for a guy who is being paid the same as Nikita Kucherov, who has 228 points in that same time frame. He’ll likely be joined on the second line by Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty, which sounded a lot more fearsome back in 2012. Patches is looking to put together a rebound season after failing to hit the 30 goal mark for the second year in a row after doing so 6 times in the past. They’ll need to get more out of Alex Tuch than the 20 goals he put up for what they’re paying him, particularly if Pacioretty has indeed aged out of effectiveness. Cody Eakin and Tomas Nosek provide plenty of bottom six speed and nuisance, and Ryan Reaves is still here to bark and fart and get skated around.

    Outlook: Once again, the Knights have enough forward depth and the Pacific is bad enough elsewhere that even if Fleury declines further or is hurt, there’s probably enough here to get one of the guaranteed spots in the Pacific. And undoubtedly there will be countless bouquets thrown at the Vegas brain trust for putting together this team if only because hockey journalists like visiting Vegas as much as opposing players do, completely ignoring the cap issues this team will have in perpetuity having now paid all of their inagural roster and losing some players (McDonald, regarded import Nikita Gusev) to do so. It’s probably not enough to come out of the West in June, because the first time took two months of Fleury heroics, but clearly stranger things have happened with this team already.

     

  • Preseason Game #6 – Hawks 2, Bruins 8 – Stanley Cup Finalists Play Minor League Team, Results as Expected

    Preseason Game #6 – Hawks 2, Bruins 8 – Stanley Cup Finalists Play Minor League Team, Results as Expected

    Um, yeah, so this game was a thing that happened.

    Box Score

    –This was never really going to be a game, and indeed it wasn’t. With the Hawks in Europe right now the Rockford Ice Hogs took the ice against the Bruins this afternoon. And it wasn’t a bunch of AHL’ers for Boston—by and large it was the Bruins actual lineup. So essentially we learned that our minor league team is not as good as last season’s Stanley Cup finalists. You’re shocked, right?

    –That said, it was still an utter beat down by Boston. Obviously the score tells you that. The fact that there were two hat tricks tells you that (DeBrusk and Pastrnak). The Bruins dominated possession to the tune of 80 CF% in the first, 62 CF% in the second and a measly 48 CF% in the third but by then no one cared and it really didn’t matter. The Bruins just took the puck from the “Hawks” at will. Boston pushed them off the puck in open ice, at either blue line, on the boards, wherever and whenever they wanted it. The Hawks passing was pretty dismal too, which didn’t help, so when Boston wasn’t manhandling them, they were able to intercept bad passes and get possession that way.

    –I want to be Adam Boqvist’s #1 fan, but he was practically invisible today. He can get the puck out of his own zone, that much I know. But he got dispossessed or turned it over once he got anywhere near the offensive blue line. This isn’t to say he sucks or even that he’s overrated, but it shows there’s a huge difference between how he looked playing against children earlier in the preseason versus how he looks playing against top-flight teams.

    –Philipp Kurashev had a nice goal. The Bruins were clearly not giving a shit by the time they got to the mid-way point of the second, and Kurashev jumped on a puck that dribbled away from the D-men as they were entering the Hawks’ zone. He took it all the way down and had a nice shot bank off Tuukka Rask. So there was that.

    –Brad Marchand is still a piece of shit, in case you were wondering. He basically laid on top of Matthew Highmore in the third period and pinned him like a bully doing the “stop hitting yourself” routine. Fuck this guy.

    –Oh, and Kris Versteeg still sucks. So we’ll definitely be seeing him with the top club shortly.

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Vancouver Canucks

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Vancouver Canucks

    If the Canucks had a true plan, you’d look at Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Quintin Hughes, and Bo Horvat and think, “Hey, that’s probably the start of something, with a long way to go.” But these are the Canucks, who have surrounded those young stars (stretching in Horvat’s case) with a litany of incomprehensible contracts and decisions, all in the name of not rebuilding. Which means the rebuilding that they’ll be doing anyway is going to take longer. It feels like an entire organization spinning one wheel and wondering why it’s not going anywhere. Let’s get to the heart of it.

    2018-2019

    35-36-11  81 points (5th in Pacific)

    2.67 GF/G (26th)  3.02 GA/G (18th)  -29 GD

    48.0 CF% (24th)  45.9 xGF% (28th)

    17.1 PP% (22nd)  81.1 PK% (11th)

    Goalies: We’ve heard about Thatcher Demko for roughly 17 years now, and it might finally be the time for him to take the Vancouver net so he can be treated to having garbage thrown at him and his every move, thought, and essence debated nonstop in the Vancouver media which has all the subtlety of a hungry and deranged jackal (and about the same IQ). At least he can hold that off until the Canucks play games that matter again, which could be a while. Demko looked all right in a brief cameo of nine games last year, but missed most of the campaign in the AHL with injury, which is kind of his thing.

    He’ll have to work hard to unseat Jacob Markstrom, who had a huge second half to the season last year. Well, he had a big February, and ended up with a .912 SV% overall, which was a tick above league average. Markstrom is 29 and headed into unrestricted free agency, so you can expect that or better. But you can also expect that the Canucks desperately want Demko to prove he can take the job on from here out so they don’t have to cut another moronic check to Markstrom, which they probably will anyway given their nature.

    Defense: It starts with Quinn Hughes, who will get his first full season in the NHL. He got a brief sniff last year after Michigan had one of their worst seasons in recent memory, which begs the question how could they be that bad if Hughes was so good? Let’s save that one for another time. Hughes promises to be the quick, suave puck-handling d-man the Canucks have never really had, aside from when Alex Edler’s elbows were down, he was healthy, and younger. So never. Edler and his elbows are still here, by god.

    But as it is with the Canucks, wherever there is a promising youth there is also a wildly overcompensated, wildly overrated veteran taking too much of the oxygen. BY GAWD, THAT’S TYLER MYERS’S MUSIC! Myers to Van City seemed a fait accompli for years, and it did indeed happen. Apparently the Canucks simply never noticed that Myers sucks to high heaven, as he’s not that offensively skilled and doesn’t play anywhere near to his size and his own zone is the Bermuda Triangle to him. All they noticed was that he was from there.

    If you moved Myers out of the way, you certainly could get solid enough play from Troy Stetcher and Chris Tanev (before yet something else falls off of him) to shield Hughes. Jordie Benn was brought in to do more of that, but mostly to glare at people while they’re getting behind him to score. Tanev should be a deadline piece to be sold off, but we keep saying that and it never seems to happen. Anyway, the blue and green clad throng will certainly be in love with Myers as he charges out of position for the 164th time in December to let in yet another forward down on an odd-man. God it’s so beautiful.

    Outside shot of Olli Joulevi to somehow scratch out a role. He could have if Myers and Benn weren’t here, but again, these are the Canucks. Logic and reason were beheaded in the town square long ago.

    Forwards: You certainly have a great top line for a while with Boeser and Pettersson to anchor it. JT Miller is the kind of player you get when you’re a piece or two away from really competing, not barely scratching to get in a playoff discussion Fine work here. Horvat is a good second center to have when you already have Pettersson. That’s all fine.

    But it’s balanced out by still having Loui Eriksson and his confused gape wandering around the ice in some indiscernible pattern. Or Antoinne Roussel doing just about the same, just yappy-ier and stinky-er (because he’s French, y’see). Or at least until the Hawks trade for him because they like that element, and don’t deny that it’s going to happen. Brandon Sutter makes $4M a year. I can’t stress this enough. Michael Ferland will find a home on either of the top two lines and get a fair share of goals, and you won’t remember any of them. After that it’s a big bag of suck and anonymous punters with stupid numbers. It’s actually a good thing that Podzolkin can’t come over for another two years, because the sight of him having to share the ice or lose time to the likes of Jay Beagle would probably send the seven remaining Nucks fans who still care throwing themselves of the Rogers Arena upper deck.

    Prediction: Since the Hawks-Canucks rivalry died, it’s been hard to think of the Canucks at all. And it’ll stay that way. Their games are late, they don’t matter, and no one there seems to think they’ll do anything worth mentioning. There’s certainly some young talent to keep an eye on, but you know it’s pretty plain when even those fans don’t have the energy to bitch about conspiracies against them. The Canucks won’t matter until they clear out the dead wood around their promising kids, and even then there’s no guarantee they won’t just shuffle in even deader wood with bigger contracts because they can’t help themselves. Stuck in second gear, miles behind the Flames, Sharks, Knights, and probably tussling with the Yotes to see who can finish outside the playoffs by the least.

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: San Jose Sharks

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: San Jose Sharks

    It’s not often a team loses its captain and its leading goal-scorer and is still considered among the conference favorites. But such is life in the West where no one has really jumped forward aside from the Colorado Avalanche. The San Jose Sharks return Erik Karlsson, which if he can remain upright for even 60 games and more importantly the playoffs, is about half the battle in itself. While Joe Pavelski may be gone, they still return a host of nifty forwards who can fill the net on at least three lines. Brent Burns might be overrated by a factor of 12, and losing Justin Braun may turn out to be nearly as big as Pavelski. Still, this team never felt like it clicked for very long last year and ended up with 101 points and in the conference final (WHERE THEY FAILED US ALL MISERABLY AND SHALL NEVER BE FORGIVEN). Can they do it again?

    2018-2019

    46-27-9  101 points (2nd in Pacific, lost in conference final)

    3.52 GF/G (2nd)  3.15 GA/G (21st)  +31 GD

    54.9 CF% (1st)  54.3 xGF% (4th)

    23.6 PP% (6th)  80.8 PK% (15th)

    Goalies: The only reason the Sharks didn’t end up with 110 or more points last season was their goaltending. Martin Jones was simply awful, Aaron Dell wasn’t any better, and the Sharks had to overcome it most nights. And most nights they did. Doug Wilson has bet that Martin Jones simply can’t be that bad again. And with good reason.

    In the three seasons as Sharks starter before that, Jones never had a SV% below .912. That’s the thing with the Sharks, they don’t need Carey Price back there. They don’t need a Vezina finalist. They just need league average. Jones couldn’t even manage that in the playoffs and they still got to the conference final. Jone will turn 30 during the season, so it’s hard to imagine last season was the begin of age-related decline. It feels like a very weird and ugly outlier, and the Sharks need to hope so. Dell isn’t going to ride in like Mighty Mouse if Jones is coughing up his esophagus again, which would mean Wilson would either have to look for answer at the deadline or close his eyes, clinch a towel between his teeth, and hope his team can plow ahead dragging Jones along.

    The Sharks always have the puck as well, giving up the least amount of attempts last season and in the top half in expected goals against. The job is just about as easy as it can be for a goalie. And they merely need to pass on a pass/fail course. Do that, and the Sharks can take this division.

    Defense: That doesn’t mean they’re without questions. The first is will Erik Karlsson ever finish a season healthy? His groin having all the gremlins doomed them in the playoffs (NEVER FORGIVEN), and he missed large chunks of the season. He hasn’t managed a full slate of games in four seasons. They’re nowhere without him, so expect him to get a regular slate of games off to try and preserve him for April and May. When he’s on the ice he still dominates, as his metrics were seven or eight points ahead of the Sharks as a whole, who again, were one of the best possession teams in the league. He’s still otherworldly when on song.

    After that though…Mar-Edouard Vlasic loses his main defensive running buddy in Braun and there isn’t an obvious candidate to take the hard shifts with him or to cover for whichever of Burns or Karlsson Pickels doesn’t. Brendon Dillon is a post. Tim Heed and Dalton Prout are seat-fillers at best. Jacob Middleton is a kid that will get a look, but coach Peter DeBoer famously hates any young d-man. One outside candidate is rookie Mario Ferraro, but he’ll also have DeBoer to overcome.

    Burns was completely exposed as a runway in the playoffs last year, and there’s no reason that won’t be true this year. He’ll pile up a ton of points again, which will be close to empty calories. This unit could use some buffeting at the deadline too, because Burns can’t really be trusted with anything than a third-pairing yahoo deep in the playoffs.

    Forwards: Losing Pavelski is a ballsy call. This is still a team that features Logan Couture, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, and Evander Kane. It shouldn’t hurt for goals, it just might not have a wealth of them as it did before. Kevin Lebanc stepping up into a top-six role would help the cause, and maybe they think he’s ready for that. Joe Thornton is back for another go-around, and while he can still make a play here and there his days of being a genuine top-two center on a team are gone. Luckily, Couture and Hertl don’t require him to do that. There are enough foot soldiers to fill out the bottom six without standing out. But the Sharks always seemingly round out their bottom six with pieces from their system.

    Prediction: It doesn’t feel like the doomsday machine they could have been last year but fell short of. The loss of Pavelski and Braun will be somewhat canceled out if Martin Jones can escape from whatever pod person took over his body last year, but not entirely. They look short a top four d-man and maybe one forward.

    But there’s more than enough here to win the division and conference. The Flames haven’t gotten away from them, and whether the Knights want to admit it or not they have the same questions in net and on their blue line. Another 105-110 points seem on offer if Karlsson can manage 60-65 games or more. The bet is that Couture and Hertl at center can take some wingers with them even if they’re not Pavelski. Perhaps. But nothing the Sharks do will be judged until they get into April again. They could be in any kind of shape by then.

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Andrew Shaw

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Andrew Shaw

    I was not a huge fan of the Blackhawks moves over the offseason, but just about all of them were understandable. They brought in some defensemen, even if not great ones, because they clearly needed blue line help. They traded Artem Anisimov for Zach Smith because they both suck, but Smith was ever-so-slightly cheaper. They signed Robin Lehner to shore up the crease, which has seen a lot of instability lately, and provide insurance for an aging Crawford.

    But trading for Andrew Shaw was a move that I cannot understand in any sense other than “this is a guy we are familiar with.” Shaw is still everything he was when the Hawks got rid of him three years ago, which is: not as good as he gets credit for, frustrating as shit with his penalties, and expensive relative to his skill level and production. Let’s just get this over with.

    2018-19 Stats (with Canadiens)

    63 GP – 19 G – 28 A – 47 P

    52.43 CF% (-2.39 CF% Rel) – 50.29 oZS%

    53.79 xGF% (-0.29xGF% Rel)

    Avg. TOI: 15:55

    A Brief History: The common line being used in defense of the trade when it happened was that Shaw was coming off a career year in Montreal. And that is correct. Shaw’s overall contribution of 47 points was by far a career high, marking the first time in that he exceeded the 40-point mark. He also did that despite missing 19 games, putting him on a ~62 point pace had he appeared in all 82 (which he has never done in his career, by the way). That seems good! “So, Adam, why do you hate this trade so much?” you may be asking. Well, dear reader, because all of that production will be as fleeting as a fart in the wind.

    Shaw’s shooting percentage of 14.1 last year was the second highest of his career, and tied for the highest-mark he’s ever posted in a “full” season, with only his 16.2% conversion rate in 37 games in rookie campaign being better. Moreover, Shaw had shot right around the 10% mark in the each of the four years prior, going 10.2%, 9.2%, 9.4%, and 10.6% from 2014-15 to 2017-18. Now sure, that was after doing a 14.1 and 13.4 percent in his first two full years, including a 20 goal season in 2013-14, but since then he had been consistently mediocre and had never topped 15 goals until last season.

    I would love to be wrong about Shaw here, but I feel like trading future 2nd and 3rd round picks for a guy like Shaw, who projects to regress hard and will still cost you almost $4-million against the salary cap for two more years is going to end up looking like a hugely stupid move in the future. The Hawks are essentially banking on last year not being a fluke, and if we know anything about hockey, it’s that you should always be speculative about a guy having a career year at 27 years old. It was smart to get rid of him when they did back in 2016, and they even ended up with Alex DeBrincat as a result. It would’ve been smarter to adopt a no returns policy on this one.

    It Was The Best of Times: Shaw proves that I am a huge fucking idiot with no clue what he is talking about, and goes out there shooting and playing at a similar level to last season, showing that it was not a fluke. He plays in all 82 games, getting some run on multiple lines but ending up a surprising first line right wing with Jonathan Toews and Brandon Saad, and scores 20 goals for the second time in his career. By virtue of keeping up his ’18-’19 scoring pace and playing all 82, he tops 50 points for the first time in his career and gets close to 60, and he has a mutually beneficial relationship as a lineman with 19 and 20, helping to power the Hawks to the playoffs.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: The luck pendulum swings to the other side on Shaw, and he ends up a $4-million fourth liner as he shoots 6% and can’t even top 10 goals, the first time in his career failing to meet that mark. Frustrated by his lack of scoring and overall suckage, he starts taking Tom Wilson-esque runs at opponents, and ends up with a career high PIM total, putting the Hawks shit ass PK on the ice way more often than it should be. As a result, the Hawks lose a number of games with opposing PPG’s as the difference, and it costs the Hawks a playoff spot in the end.

    Prediction: Shaw ends up returning to what he really is – a somewhat versatile forward with a propensity for stupid plays, who shoots 10% and adds 12-15 goals for you and 30-35 points. I’ll go ahead and call it 14 goals and 18 assists for 32 points. That will all be well and fine on the third line, but it’s not much better than you could’ve gotten from the guys you already had here, and I’m damn near positive it’s not worth the draft capital the Hawks gave up to get him here.

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

    Ryan Carpenter

    Alex DeBrincat

    David Kampf

    Patrick Kane

    Alex Nylander

    Brendan Perlini

    Brandon Saad

    Zack Smith

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Los Angeles Kings

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Los Angeles Kings

    While it’s fun to mock the Kings, in the end you’re really only mocking yourself (done played yo’ self, fool). It’s another team that sat on top of the hockey world for a few years, but now has too many entrenched contracts to have a full teardown and restart. And those big contracts make it also near impossible to slot in players who can move them down the lineup to lesser roles. Which is why the Hawks getting Kirby Dach is hopefully a coup as he moves Toews down for cheap in the coming years. Perhaps Alex Turcotte will be that down the road, shoving Anze Kopitar to a #2 center role. It won’t be this year though, and this year looks like it might be pretty damn ugly for the silver and black. Again.

    2018-2019

    31-42-9  71 points (dead ass last in the Pacific and West)

    2.43 GF/G (30th)  3.16 GA/G (22nd) -60 GD

    48.2 CF% (22nd)  47.0 xGF% (21st)

    15.8 PP% (27th) 76.5 PK% (29th)

    Goalies: Like death, taxes, and my inability to love, it’s Jonathan Quick in the Los Angeles net. But perhaps this is the time when he has to let go of the rope, even if his contract says otherwise. Quick was a big back of suck last year, posting a .888 over the full season. That kind of came out of nowhere, as the debate about whether he was overrated or underrated raged on without noticing he’d been pretty solid for the three years before (.919 SV%). At least when he was healthy. It’s highly doubtful Quick is now a sub-.900 goalie, unless there’s something chronically wrong with him physically. At 33 he shouldn’t be complete toast, but last year was awfully discouraging.

    He might want to pick it up, because if he doesn’t Todd McLellan might have a real headache on his hands. Well, a headache other than watching this team getting turned into tapenade most nights. Jack Campbell massively outplayed Quick last year, to the tune of a .928 SV%. While the world has been waiting for Campbell for what seems like decades, this was his first regular turn in an NHL net. Now, maybe that was the anomaly, but if Campbell continues in anything like that fashion and Quick continues to look like be belongs in the fields of Elysium, there’s going to be a call to get Campbell more and more starts. It’s highly unlikely that Quick is going to be in net when the Kings matter again, whenever that might be, and a whole bunch of fans and some within the organization might want to start that process along.

    Defense: Hope Doughnuts likes cashing that fat, $11M check because he’s going to have to do everything here. Except he can’t really anymore, and his metrics went into the red for the first time last year. When Alec Martinez is your #2 d-man, people should attend your games with gas masks. I could list the rest of the Kings defensive crew, but you would be sure I was making them up and trying to get away with something. The good thing, I guess, for the Kings is that every d-man after Doughty is only signed for this season, so they can completely start over next year if they so choose. And they probably have to. Otherwise, when you’re cold and alone at night, remember there are people out there choosing to watch Derek Forbort and Ben Hutton multiple times a week. You are not alone in your desperation and waywardness. You are not alone. You are not alone.

    Forwards: Two years ago, Anze Kopitar flashed for a whole season in a big “I’m Not Dead!” sign. That gave us hope for Jonathan Toews. Well, Kopitar went back to needing a forensic team to figure out if he could fog a mirror last season, which doesn’t give us much hope. But hey, he was the only Kings forward to top 60 points. Which is…well it’s not anything and it means this team has all the dash and dynamism at forward as the rat carcass in the alley. Kovalchuk and Jeff “Wooderson” Carter are still around to cash a check, at least the latter is until yet another body part of his gets up and takes a walk for a couple months. They can’t seem to kill Dustin Brown, so he’ll take a top six role because that’s just what has to be. Look for Tyler Toffoli to have a better season as he heads into free agency and the possibility of getting the hell out of there. They’ll try and convince you that any or all of Adrian Kempe, or Alex Iaffalo, or Austin Wagner are things that definitely have to be paid attention to. They definitely intake oxygen but not much else. This team won’t score much and you can see why. When Trevor Lewis and Kyle Clifford still easily claim spots, you know your team blows.

    Prediction: Don’t know why Todd McLellan took this job other than sheer desperation. At least with the Oilers he could watch Connor McDavid every night. Here he’s going to watch Kopitar wheeze and hear the fat on Doughty increasing on a nightly basis. If Quick isn’t terrible they probably won’t be a front to nature, and maybe even pass Anaheim on the standings. Maybe. But all of their kids that will form the next Kings team aren’t here yet, and what is is pretty gruesome. Another sub-80 point season seems on the cards.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

    Florida

    Montreal

    Ottawa

    Tampa Bay

    Toronto

    Arizona

    Calgary

    Edmonton