Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Hockey

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Alex DeBrincat

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Alex DeBrincat

    Do you ever catch yourself? Maybe you’re sitting at dinner with a friend your significant other, talking about the news or whatever, and you have to stop a moment. A wide, ill-intentioned grin spreads across your face. You must look crazy. You start cackling like a maniac. You can’t stop laughing like you’re the fucking Joker. Your friend looks at you with deep concern in their eyes. People around you are staring. It’s uncomfortable for everyone. But you can’t help it. It’s just too hilarious to believe (You signed up for that look when you decided to write here – ED).

    You just remembered that the Blackhawks got Alex DeBrincat in the second round.

    Does that ever happen to you? Cuz, same. Now please come tell these cops I’m normal and bail me out of jail.

    2018-19 stats

    82 GP – 41 G – 35 A – 76 P

    49.68CF% (0.48 CF% Rel), 59.75 oZS%

    53.66 GF% (5.71 GF% Rel), 46.47 xGF% (0.93 xGF% Rel)

    17:42 Avg. TOI

    A Brief History: DeBrincat showed that his 2017-18 season was no fluke last year, building upon that and then going above and beyond the production. He became a nightmare for opposing penalty killers under Coach Cool Youth Pastor, posting 24 points (13G, 11A) with the extra man. You may be thinking that kind of PP success is artificially inflating his overall numbers, but as I detailed back in April during player reviews, that’s a pretty normal rate for elite scorers. Believe it or not, good offensive players score on the power play. This is news to Joel Quenneville.

    DeBrincat also got something of a personal and personnel favor (folks, you get this kinda wordsmithing for just $3.99 a month, and that’s less than half it’s true value) in the form of the Dylan Strome trade. I don’t need to rehash it all, but obviously for Top Cat it must’ve been nice to get a linemate in Strome that A) he was familiar with and B) was not allergic to shooting the puck like Nick Schmaltz was. All of this resulted in Top Cat cementing himself as this team’s third best forward and likely has him positioned for a healthy contract extension this coming season.

    It Was The Best of Times: DeBrincat continues to ascend with his offensive abilities, and being able to play with Strome for more of this season helps both of them elevate their games. It’s hard to ask too much more of a guy fresh off a 41-goal season, but DeBrincat is probably capable of pushing that number closer to 45, especially now that the Hawks will have a full season of the Colliton PP system. On top of that, his scoring ability becomes such a threat that defenses have no choice but to focus in on him, opening up the ice for him to use his vision and passing to find others, and he gets his assist total over 40 as well. He ends the seaon with 90+ points and leads the team in scoring, but not until after the Hawks lock him up at 6x$8.5M which will end up feeling like a huge discount.

    It Was The BLURST of Times: The Colliton power play turns out to be a mirage, and even Top Cat can’t save it. Even with all the offensive talent the Hawks have, they return to the dark days of the early 2010’s (power play frustration wise, of course) and his production there drops to a meesly 10 points. Meanwhile, his linemates turn out to be huge duds, and he gets dragged down with them. He ends up with a paltry 55 points (oh, the horror!) and that 6x$8.5M extension feels a little expensive suddenly.

    Preiction: It’s hard to ask much more from Top Cat than what we’ve gotten from him. He’s already done more than many scouts believed he would in the NHL, but that’s because hockey scouts are egg-brained. I’m somewhat inclined to believe that the Top Cat we saw last year is the Top Cat we will continue to see moving forward, though he’s certainly capable of giving or taking 10 more points. I predict he finishes the year with 43 goals and 40 assists, with something around 30 of the total points coming on the power play. Oh year, and he signs a 6x$8.5M extension. That feels fair, right?

    Stats from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick

    Previous Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

    Ryan Carpenter

  • Preseason Game #2 – Hawks 3, Red Wings 5 – Too Much to Not Enough, There I Saved You Some Time

    Preseason Game #2 – Hawks 3, Red Wings 5 – Too Much to Not Enough, There I Saved You Some Time

    I’m a firm believer that preseasons in basically any sport are not worth getting stressed out about. They’re an extended audition for those on the fringes of the team, ostensibly they shake off some rust (debatable), and you’re just happy if the important players don’t get hurt.

    With all that being the case, don’t take anything I say too seriously (like I normally demand serious consideration around here), because the Hawks looked pretty shitty tonight but I am not—I repeat NOT—letting it get to me, and neither should you.

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    –Robin Lehner looked less than comfortable tonight. He played half the game, gave up two goals and finished with an .882 SV%, which again shouldn’t give anyone ulcers but my bigger problem was that he was all over the place, and not in a good way. He was flopping around and losing his net; the second goal was a direct result of him using the crease as a slip-and-slide and the puck dribbled away from him and into the net. I get athleticism and all that, but flailing shouldn’t be the result.

    –Kevin Lankinen did just fine, on the other hand, and the goals he gave up weren’t really on him—the defense got mesmerized (shocking, right?) on the first one, and the second was off Dahlstrom’s leg on a PK that looked characteristically chaotic. He finished with a .905.

    –None of the core looked particularly impressive. Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome were quiet, Andrew Shaw whiffed on at least three or four shots and was pretty useless, Brendan Perlini did nothing, Slater Koekkoek was Slater Koekkoek, etc. Great seats still available.

    –So Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom are going to be our shutdown pairing, huh? At one point in the second period they had, respectively, 11 and 10 CF%. You did not mis-read that. But I know, I know, it’s a dumb preseason game, who cares. They ended with a 45 and 40 CF% so whatever, and Dahlstrom did get an assist, so yay?

    –Who the hell is Philip Holm? I swear I was paying attention this offseason and during training camp, and I’m telling you I’ve never heard of this guy. But he scored a goal, he had a great keep on the power play that resulted in the third goal (he got the assist), and at 44.4 CF% he was behind only Murphy in possession for d-men. Sign him to a 7-year deal right now.

    –The organ-I-zation is REALLY excited about Andrew Shaw being back and they want you to know it. During both intermissions they played an interview with him (hello, mute lounge), and I know my personal animosity towards him is clouding my judgement but I am already exhausted with this dummy. He nearly dropped the gloves in the third period—this is a PRESEASON game, lest you forgot. But there was plenty of stupidity to go around. De la Rose and some other oafs went after noted tough guy Alex DeBrincat late in the third after the Wings had re-taken the lead. So that shows you the level of play we’re dealing with here.

    Two games, two losses, not freaking out yet. Onward and upward.

     

     

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Florida Panthers

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Florida Panthers

    Well there are a couple of quite familiar faces, aren’t they? The departed namesake and an instant hall of fame coach will try to bring a level of sustained competitive hockey to south Florida that they haven’t seen since…well…ever. As batshit as it sounds, Uncle Dale and Joel Quenneville never even spent a full season together here in Chicago, but they’re going to try to make this thing work in Sunrise even if it kills them both. And it just might, but at least now they’ll leave behind nice bronzed and pickled corpses.

    2018-2019

    36-32-14 86 Pts, 5th in the Atlantic
    3.22 GF/G (9th), 3.33 GA/G (28th), -13 GD
    49.42% CF (16th), 48.45% xGF (20th)
    PP 26.8% (2nd), PK 81.3% (10th)

    Goaltending: In a full 180 from a trick they had been pulling for the couple seasons previous wherein the Cats got solid netminding from an aging Roberto Luongo and James Reimer filling in whenever something fell off of him, last season the Panthers got absolutely no goaltending to help out what was a pretty spiky offense. Luongo started 40 games last year and arguably posted the worst numbers of his era-spanning career with an .899 overall and only a .906 at evens. Reimer was only a hair better at .900 and .909 respectively. Luongo decided that was enough to call it a career, and did so officially which hilariously dicked over the Canucks in having to eat the recapture penalty for the contraband contract they signed him to. Reimer took whatever he’s got left in the tank up the coast to Carolina, leaving Uncle Dale to have to revamp his entire goaltending infrastructure. Fortunately for him, there was an aging veteran in Sergei Bobrovsky who couldn’t wait to get the fuck out of Columbus and take the bags and bags of money everyone knew Dale was going to throw at him. Bob got a max seven-year term from the Panthers at $10 million per, which should take him until he’s 37. Even with the goaltending career curve being far more protracted than other positions, there’s always a risk of Bobrovsky’s crotch detaching given the high wire style he plays, and Joel Quenneville isn’t exactly known for his judicious management of goaltending workloads.  Still, the Panthers were looking for an infusion of excitement both by landing a name and by potentially making some noise in the post-season. Bobrovsky certainly should get him there even if a) his overall save percentage numbers have been in decline for three years while staying healthy, and b) only last season did he have even a representative playoff run, having absolutely shat himself with the Jackets two trips previous. As of right now, 22-year-old Sam Montrembleaut will get first crack at the backup role, but it could be a rotating cast of thousands if Bob doesn’t play 70 games. Which he just might.

    Defense: Once again Joel Quenneville will have an honsest-to-god #1 defenseman to work with, in this case it’s Aaron Eklbad, who somehow is still only 23-years-old. Q likes his top pairing guys to be able to do everything, and Ekblad is certainly capable. Over the past few seasons his overall possession rate isn’t necessarily one that’d be associated with a do-it-all blue liner, but when taking into consideration that he’s had the toughest starts out of necessity and has been paired with Keith Yandle for two years, the picture starts to get a little clearer. And the fact that Quenneville hasn’t personally drowned Yandle with his barehands in some secluded corner of the Everglades and then chopped up his body on a fanboat is truly an upset. Anton Stralman moved a little east from Tampa to Sunrise in the offseason, and while he’s always been a textbook 2nd pairing puck mover, last year he finally started to show some signs of wearing down. No one is quite sure what it is Mike Matheson does or who he is, but Dale is paying him a fairly hefty salary at $4.75 mildo to do it until the entire state is submerged. Mark Pysyk is a hold over from the Computer Boys era, so Quenneville will hate him and put him at forward. At the very least he’ll call him Mike Kostka if only out of spite.

    Forwards: Sasha Barkov is probably the best kept secret in the league, and if Q and Bob have any kind of positive impact on this team, that probably won’t be the case for much longer. Barkov is probably the second best two-way player in the league behind Patrice Bergeron now that both Toews and Kopitar have aged out of that level of effectiveness. Barkov absolutely erupted for 96 points nobody saw last year when he finally had two competent full time linemates in a healthy Jonathan Huberdeau and the very shoosty Mike Hoffman, who had 92 and 70 points themselves respectively. Evgeni Dadonov was a nice surprise (albeit at 30) with 70 points of his own despite the fact that a hurt Vincent Trochek only played 55 games last year, and was hindered when he did play. If he bounces back to his formerly reliable 50+ point output, particularly with Brett Connolly here to now provide a bit more scoring depth, the Cats could have a little bit more bite (GET IT?) to an offense that was already top-10.

    Outlook: Barring injuries, or Sasha Barkov turning to dust under the workload Quenneville is certain to give him, the Panthers have made enough improvements to interject themselves into the playoff picture in the east, more than likely as a wild card, as the top three spots in the Atlantic seem fairly secure in Tampa, Boston, and Toronto. There are enough “ifs” here to not make it a completely foregone conclusion, but if Bobrovsky is even slightly above league average as he declines, Quenneville’s system is one of the few in the league that produces actual, tangible results almost immediately, and the Panthers weren’t that far off the playoff pace last year. And January 21st at Club 1901 is sure to be a highly emotional reunion, count on that.

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

    Detroit

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Ryan Carpenter

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Ryan Carpenter

    We may forget his name. We may forget his point. But Ryan Carpenter is here, so here we go.

    2018–19 Stats

    68 GP – 5 G, 13 A, 18 P

    58.77 CF% (3.9 CF% Rel), 56.6 oZS%

    40.98 GF% (-16.27 Rel GF%), 56.99 xGF% (0.39 Rel xGF%)

    Avg. TOI 12:37

    A Brief History: There’s been talk about how Carpenter is a Kampf clone, which wouldn’t be a terrible thing, given the defensive rigmarole we’re going to be drinking off this entire year. It might be even better than that though, as Carpenter has shown a bit more offensive skill than our David.

    Carpenter’s 18 points last year were a career best, as were his CF% and oZS%. He’s pretty good at limiting high-danger shots in his own end in the limited time he’s on the ice. And he’s good on faceoffs, which we think is sort of the appendix of hockey skill but sure won’t turn it down if he’s got it. He can play center or wing, so he’s got some versatility in the most literal sense of the word.

    His value shines brightest as a dungeon master on 5v5. Last year saw him mitigate high-danger threats in his own zone and turn the ice with regularity. But then again, he started in his own zone at just a 43.4% clip. Still, he’s always been sort of a defensive plug throughout his short career.

    There’s some talk about how Carpenter can play on the PK, but I’m not so sure I buy it yet. Although Vegas was in the top half of the league for killing penalties last year (12th overall), Carpenter was sort of a ninth guy on the PK unit (or 10th if you’re pedantic and count the goalie). But given how awful the Hawks were last year, that might still be an improvement, especially if it’s minimizing high-stress defensive time that Jonathan Toews has to take.

    It Was the Best of Times: Carpenter ends up as a fourth line RW/C who wins more than half of his faceoffs. Though he doesn’t spend nearly as much time in the offensive zone as he did last year, he builds off last year’s career high in points, potting 20 on the year. He takes some time away from Toews on the PK.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: Shaw gets hurt and Colliton gets a case of galaxy brain and puts Carpenter on the first line.

    Prediction: Carpenter is 28 and has a three-year, $1 million per contract, and that’s about the player we’ll get. He’s an older David Kampf with slightly more offensive skill. He’ll score some kind of fluky, greasy goal in the first 10 games and replace John Hayden as Eddie O’s adopted son, number and all. More importantly, he’ll do a decent job battening down the PK2 unit.

    That’s about all you can ask from a guy like Carpenter.

    Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, Corsica.hockey, and HockeyViz.com.

    Previous Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Drake Caggiula

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-20 Team Previews: Detroit Red Wings

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-20 Team Previews: Detroit Red Wings

    Schadenfeude: noun, 1. Pleasure derived by someone from another person’s misfortune. 2. When your rival team is even worse than your team. See: 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings.

    2018-2019

    32-40-10 74 Pts. (7th in Atlantic Division)

    2.73 GF/G (21st) – 3.32 GA/G (27th)

    47.1 CF% (28th) – 44.5 xGF% (31st)

    18.1 PP% (19th) – 77.1 PK% (28th)

    Goalies: In my mind Jimmy Howard is at least 65 years old, but turns out he’s only 34. Only. It’s safe to say his best years are behind him, and while he wasn’t a trainwreck or anything last year, his .907 SV%/3.07GAA at evens isn’t exactly going to save this shitshow of a team. Jonathan Bernier isn’t going to do it either. He’s certainly a serviceable back-up, and let’s be honest neither of these goalies are going to be what sinks the Red Wings’ season, but neither of them are good enough to bail out this team either.

    Defense: Why is Mike Green still playing? I guess plenty of Wings fans could yell that right back at me but with the words “Brent Seabrook” in the middle of that sentence. But that doesn’t change the fact that if Mike Green is on your top pairing, you’ve got issues. Last season the Wings were 28th in the league in terms of shots against per game, placing them in the esteemed company of the Rangers, Hawks, and Senators. Only one defenseman (Filip Hronek) was above water in possession last year, and just barely—he had a 50.3 CF%. We know a few things about shitty defenses around here, and that’s what the Red Wings have.

    Green will probably pair with Danny DeKeyser, Hronek and Dennis Cholowski maybe, and Patrik Nemeth and Jonathan Ericsson will round out to the main six. Will Trevor Daley stink up the joint for a while? Probably! But who cares? Fuck this team.

    Forwards: A lot of teams are stuck with one top line and nothing else, but the Red Wings are really taking this situation to a new level. Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha is a decent top line—really, Dylan Larkin is probably the only good thing on this team. But all three are young and could be good pieces to build around. Or maybe they can gtfo to better teams, I don’t know.

    Frans Nielsen and Valtteri Filppula are your centers behind Larkin, with Luke Glendening probably centering the fourth line. Andreas Athanasiou isn’t horrible, but I swear I hate that fucker so that’s literally the nicest thing I’m going to say. Justin Abdelkader is still playing on this team, for God’s sake.

    Now, they have young guys like Filip Zadina, Taro Hirose, and Michael Rasmussen, who may develop into something, but that’s by no means certain and they weren’t lighting up the scorer’s sheet in the playing time they had last year. This team was dead-ass last in expected goals for. And so it goes with a rebuild—it’s going to be a lot of trial and error.

    Prediction: Yes, Steve Yzerman is back and people will try to find the upsides, but let’s not kid ourselves—the Red Wings are going to suck this year. It’s entirely possible they’re at the bottom of the division, and I couldn’t be happier about it. If they’re not, it’s simply because the Senators are proving yet again why relegation is a viable strategy the NHL should adopt. The Wings will end up with somewhere between 75-80 points, and Larkin will be like a poor man’s Connor McDavid—not, he’s not anywhere near as good as McDavid so please do not misunderstand me, but he’s young, talented, and wasting it on a terrible team. But too bad. Fuck this team.

    Stats from NHL.com, Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

    Buffalo

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews: Drake Caggiula

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Player Previews: Drake Caggiula

    Alright, let’s take this death march to the forwards, where the story is kind of the same—just as the defense is mostly a collection of 6th or even 7th guys, the offense is a potpourri of bottom-sixers. Case in point: the very guy we’re kicking this off with, Drake Caggiula.

    2018-19 Stats (w/ Hawks)

    26 GP – 5 G – 7 A – 12 P

    49.71 CF% (1.17 CF% Rel) – 45.48 xGF% (0.92 xGF% Rel)

    59.2 oZS% – 40.8 dZS% – 14:51 Avg. TOI

    FFUD Player Review

    A Brief History: The very best day of Caggiula’s career with the Hawks came before he even dressed. That day was the day they acquired him in a trade with the hilariously stupid Edmonton Oilers that relieved us of everyone’s, particularly John Pullega’s, most-hated player, Brandon Manning. Caggiula could literally have been a beer league player of a bag of pucks and he would have been welcomed with open arms in exchange for Manning. And even once that rapturous feeling wore off, Caligula was not terrible on the top line with Toews and Kane. Granted, it’s hard to be terrible on a line with them but he did no harm.

    Except to himself, that is. Because despite sustaining a concussion and missing about a month, this dumbshit promptly ran head first into getting domed by Dustin Byfuglien, which didn’t result in another (acknowledged) head injury, but it did show that he is a complete and utter oaf. And fortunately, everyone realized he’s really just a bottom-six guy with a bunch of missing teeth, so his position on the top line wasn’t exactly the linchpin of the offense.

    It Was the Best of Times: Given the collection of flotsam the Hawks have acquired, Caggiula’s best-case situation is to settle in on the third line with David Kampf and maybe Brendan Perlini. Or Brandon Saad, if he gets marooned there. Or Andrew Shaw. That’s right—Andrew Shaw belongs at best on a third line, he’s not an elite scorer, and he’s a dumb piece of shit. I know, you don’t believe me, but you’ll see.

    Anyway, this preview is about Caggiula, and while his mediocre possession numbers, despite very sheltered zone starts, don’t scream third line, ideally he’ll improve the defensive aspects of his game, and this is where he’d make the most sense in terms of the depth chart. Essentially, if you have to have Drake Caggiula in your top six, you’re fucked.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: And that brings us to the worst-case scenario. Let’s say Saad has a slump, Kubalik doesn’t pan out, Nylander remains useless, and no one earns or deserves a spot on the top line with Daydream Nation so it falls to Caggiula. He likely wouldn’t do too much harm, aside from probably taking some stupid-ass penalties and getting brown brain a couple times, but he also wouldn’t provide the scoring ability the Hawks need. And it would exemplify how their bloated forward corps is really just a bunch of guys. A bunch of guys who don’t make the playoffs.

    Prediction: Caggiula will most likely meander among the bottom six, possibly spending some brief stints on the top line as Coach Cool Youth Pastor figures out who’s awful and who’s useful. For his part, Caggiula will finish with around 20 points as a half-decent albeit very block-headed third- or fourth-liner, best remembered for being anyone other Brandon fucking Manning.

    Stats from Hockey Reference and Corsica Hockey

    Previous Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

    Brent Seabrook

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-20 NHL Team Previews: Buffalo Sabres

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-20 NHL Team Previews: Buffalo Sabres

    They have lots of young talent! They just need time to develop! They’re going to finally make the postseason again! Management is getting its shit together, for real! You’d be forgiven for thinking that we’re talking about the White Sox, but lo, it is the Buffalo Sabres who seemingly every year are on the verge of great things only to see it go down in flames. After a truly ugly spectacle last year in the second half, they’ve brought in new coach Ralph Krueger who, despite having a name that makes him sound like an insurance salesman from Toledo, is actually NOT part of the clique of crusty old white men from which NHL GMs and coaches are typically drawn. So they say it’s really going to be different this time, but I think we’ve heard this song before…

    2018-2019

    33-39-10 76 pts (6th in Atlantic Division)

    2.70 GF/G (23rd) – 3.27 GA/G (24th)

    49.9 CF% (14th) – 47.82 xGF% (22nd)

    19.5 PP (16th) – 80.9 PK (12th)

    Goalies: This remains a huge weak spot for Buffalo, and in a goalie league, that’s a problem. By the total numbers Carter Hutton isn’t horrible, and at 5v5 he managed a .913 SV%/2.80 GAA on the season. But what that masks is a second half that was hot garbage, with an .895/3.56 after January 1st. Backup Linus Ullmark isn’t much better. He had a .918/2.69 at 5v5 for the year with a decent .910 after 1/1, but an .856 SV% on the PK (Hutton wasn’t spectacular either with an .883 on the PK).

    All of this is to say that both of these guys are middling goalies, which won’t kill you every night if the young, snazzy defense can play well in front of them, but it means they also can’t be relied upon to win it for you if the defense shits the bed at times, nor can they be counted on to steal a few games. The Sabres have prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukonen—easily in the running for best name in the league—but he’s out with a hip injury so by the time they bring him up, if in fact he can play at the NHL level, it may be too late.

    Defense: On the other hand, the defense should be a relative strength for Buffalo. The top pairing is, for now, the Rasmuses (Rasmusi?), Dahlin and Ristolainen. However, Ristolainen wants out and could be a valuable trade piece for greater forward depth (more on that later). If he’s moved out, Brandon Montour could move to the first pairing. Dahlin should continue building on a solid year (was 4th on the team in points, and the only guys beating him in possession numbers all played fewer than 35 games). Either Ristolainen or Montour, who himself should have a strong year now that he’s fully out of the Anaheim shitstorm, would make a decent partner.

    Otherwise, Montour may pair with Jack McCabe. Or, Colin Miller may jump to the first pairing and then it’s Montour and McCabe on the second. None of which is terrible. And, we’ll probably see our almost-special-boy Henri Jokiharju somewhere, likely on the 3rd pairing. Yes, I’m just assuming Harju makes the lineup over Marco Scandella, although Casey Nelson could figure in as well, depending on if they want to play him and/or Harju on their off side.

    Forwards: As is the style of the time, the Sabres have a top line and little else. However, it is an enviable top line, don’t get me wrong, of Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart. Like their other prodigy Dahlin, Eichel should just have more good days ahead. Last year was a career year for him with 82 points (which led the team), with Skinner and Reinhart right behind him.

    Beyond that it gets a little dicey. Casey Mittelstadt needs to learn how not to suck, and if he can’t there’s an outside chance he’ll lose the 2C spot to recently drafted Dylan Cozens. However, that assumes Cozens makes huge strides really quickly, and that his thumb injury isn’t an issue (but at that age would a damn thumb really not heal? Come on). Conor Sheary and Marcus Johansson could finish out that second line, but after that, as is so often the case, there’s no depth. Do Evan Rodrigues and Jimmy Vesey do anything for you? How about Johan Larsson or Kyle Okposo? I didn’t think so. Their fourth line of Zemgus Girgensons (who is not a character from Lord of the Rings?), Larsson and Okposo might be the fourth-liniest line ever. Prospect Arttu Ruostalainen may be able to help with the depth issue, but again, that’s assuming a young guy in Europe can make the jump to the top club right away. Or maybe they can get something for the aforementioned Ristolainen—you’d have to think forward depth would be their asking price. But, it’s a lot of ifs.

    Prediction: The Sabres likely won’t be the trainwreck we saw at the end of last year, but it’s doubtful they’ll be a playoff team either. If everything, literally everything, goes right, they finish with about 85-90 points—closer to 80 if not everything goes right. Maybe just maybe they take 4th in the Atlantic? It seems unlikely unless Montreal regresses and Florida fails to make a leap forward. But, spoken like a true Sox fan, even if they don’t make the postseason, they should still see a lot of improvement and maybe a faint light at the end of that tunnel.

    Photo credit: theleafsnation.com

    Previous Team Previews

    Carolina

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

    Philadelphia 

    Pittsburgh

    Washington

    Boston

  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brent Seabrook

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brent Seabrook

    Five more years.

    2018–19 Stats

    78 GP – 5 G, 23 A, 28 P

    46.77 CF% (-3.5 CF% Rel), 49.8 oZS%

    46.46 GF% (-5.92 Rel GF%), 45.32 xGF% (0.45 Rel xGF%)

    Avg. TOI 19:06

    A Brief History: There are so many ways to measure what a negative effect Seabrook had when he was on the ice last year. Let’s start at the most obvious, which is his defense.

    All Charts by Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath)

    On the left is WITH Seabrook. On the right is WITHOUT. Both are bad. But it’s somehow and exceedingly worse when he’s out there. The analysis here is simple: Seabrook gets mauled when he’s forced to play in his own end.

    The only Blackhawk D-man whose threat percentage while on the ice was higher than Seabrook’s (higher is worse on defense) was Gustav Forsling, and he won’t ever see the ice inside PNC Arena, barring a glut of Hurricanes injuries. Defensively, Seabrook is slightly better than Gustav Forsling. Ringing endorsement.

    Worse than being bad by yourself is making your teammates worse. Seabrook excels at this aspect of the game.

    This chart shows score-adjusted shots per 60 minutes, both against (inverted y-axis) and for (x-axis). That red diagonal line is the 50% point for shots for and shots against (i.e., the breakeven point). The blob of blue in the middle is Seabrook on his own, which leans toward bad. The black squares are a given player WITH Seabrook. The red squares are the given player WITHOUT Seabrook.

    Aside from reiterating how bad this team is at defense as a whole, this shows that when Seabrook is on the ice, opponents take more shots than give up. When you take Seabrook off the ice, literally every single Blackhawk ends up facing fewer shots.

    In short, Seabrook is a black hole for defensive performance, and there’s nowhere to hide him. He sucks so much that he has his own fucking event horizon. That’s fucking something.

    You bet your sweet crimson ass there is. Perhaps the worst part of Seabrook’s game is his penalty killing.

    Jesus Christ, just look at how bad the PK is when Seabrook is on the ice (left). He played just 21 seconds fewer than the Hawks’s leading PK time getter, Duncan Keith, on by far the worst PK in the league. This is an utter dereliction of duty on Colliton’s part. There might not be a worse regular-time-getting penalty killer in the league than Brent Seabrook, and yet there he is, almost leading the team in playing time out there.

    Maybe you’re sitting there buying the myth that he’s still useful on offense. But guess what?

    That’s not really true. In terms of shots at 5v5, Seabrook is entirely replaceable. The offensive threat (higher is better on offense) is the same whether he’s on the ice or not. Combine this with his GF%, and it’s even worse. Of Hawks who played at least 41 games, only Gustav Forsling (there’s that name again) had a worse GF% among Hawks D-men.

    “Well, he’s still got a booming shot and can be useful on the power play,” you might say.

    Pretty much any power play with Seabrook on it dies on this “still useful, booming” shot of his. This shot directly produced AT BEST 10 power play goals if you want to include the possibility of tips (two goals, three first assists, five second assists). That’s not nearly useful enough to make up for everything else he makes bad.

    The only positive thing that happened with him last year is that he played under 20 minutes per game on average. That’s a start, but he really should be playing about 20 games per year.

    It Was the Best of Times: Boqvist breaks camp and takes Seabrook’s spot. Seabrook plays 20 games all year as a 7th D-man, along with Dahlstrom.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: Seabrook plays more than 20 games.

    Prediction: Seabrook’s gonna get second-pairing minutes and look terrible doing it. Everyone’s gonna keep going back to the undefinable “leadership” he brings, saying, “You just can’t understand it unless you’re in the locker room.” Everyone will make excuse after excuse for his performance. It will be agony because none of this is really Seabrook’s fault.

    This is just what he is now: a bad all-around hockey player. As much as I want to hem and haw about how a real leader would take himself off the ice, that’s not fair. It’s stupid, in fact. Instead, that’s a decision his coach—a man who likely has the same sort of respectability in Seabrook’s eyes as a soiled diaper—needs the stones to make. But Colliton probably doesn’t have the stones to do what anyone with even a cursory understanding of hockey would do: scratch Seabrook more often than not.

    The only thing that Colliton, Bowman, and every other decision maker should be afraid of regarding Seabrook is how much damage he does to the Hawks as a direct result of playing ice hockey. It doesn’t matter how you slice it. Brent Seabrook is not a good hockey player anymore. He’s a sunk cost. You get nothing for continuing to ice him, except a below-replacement-level performance.

    They’ll retire his number one day because he deserves it. We’ll revere him as a cornerstone of the Hawks revival, because he is, was, and always will be. The first time he comes back after his retirement, he will get the raucous standing ovation he’s owed. That’s what makes watching him be quite possibly the worst regularly playing defenseman in the NHL today as agonizing as it is.

    We’re just as tired of this as you are. And it really doesn’t have to be this way.

    Five more years.

    Stats from HockeyViz.com, hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey.

    Previous Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta

    Connor Murphy

  • You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Boston Bruins

    You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews – Boston Bruins

    Perhaps it was always too big of an a request to be rescued by the Bruins again, first in 2011 from a revolting Canucks team, no one from whom has gone on to have his name etched in silver, and this past summer from quite possibly the most underwhelming assemblage of players to ever end up having hoisted the Cup in the moldering St. Louis Blues. It was a true exhibition in monkey paw wish fulfillment, or at the very least a real life tale of punishing Irish Catholic irony worthy of Sean O’Casey, that Brad Marchand would finally be exposed as the absolute fraud of a player that he is only to give the Blues their first ever Cup. There are sins going on here both big and small that will never, ever be forgiven.

    2018-2019

    49-24-9 107 Points, 2nd in Atlantic
    3.13 GF/G (11th), 2.59 GA/G (3rd), +44 GD
    53.04 CF% (6th), 52.77% xGF (7th)
    25.9% PP (3rd), 79.9% PK (17th)

    Goalies: Last year was a bit of a resurgence for longtime B’s netminder Tuukka Rask, mostly due to the fact that the rest of the league seemed to drop down to the rate Tuukka had been playing at for the past couple of years, at least in the regular season. His .912 overall is about league average, but the underlying numbers suggest that at evens he was as solid as could be expected with a .925 against. The problems came during special teams, where Bruce Cassidy’s more uptempo, more loosely structured system came with its own risks and rewards. The Bruins had a top flight power play, but with only a single high defenseman, and that defenseman being either Tory Krug or Charlie McAvoy, that left Tuukka on an island, and the B’s allowed a league worst 15 shorties against. Similarly, their PK wasn’t as tightly structured behind the obvious top manned unit of Patrice Bergeron, and their kill was decidedly middle of the road, a serious dropoff from the Julien era. All of this is a longwinded way of saying that Tuukka may not be an absolute brick wall anymore, but he’s still in the upper echelon of goalies, as he proved by turning in a Smythe worthy performance with a .934 overall in the post season. He’ll once again be spelled by Jaro Halak, who always seems to fare better as a 1B or a backup, and was more than acceptable with a .922 overall and .934 at evens last year in 37 starts. He’s more than capable of providing Rask with a break to preserve him for the post-season or even stepping up in the event of injury. Overall, the Bruins have one of the better goaltending situations in both the conference and the league.

    Defense: One of the big, and stupid misconceptions about the Cup final matchup was that both of these teams were huge, lumbering, rough and tumble heavyweight teams, based solely on reputation and the fact that Regis “Pierre” McGuire is a moronic pecker who never shuts up. The fact of the matter is that while Zdeno Chara is still lurching around Fangorn Forest at 42 years old (43 in March), this blue line is built to get up and go, and is somewhat undersized, Charlie McAvoy’s absolutely huge face notwithstanding. Chara played center field for McAvoy for the majority of the year, but they weren’t taking the toughest assignments or zone starts. McAvoy is still unsigned and was on pace for 40+ points at age 21-22, so it’s likely the B’s opt for longer term instead of a bridge deal because the offensive upside is clearly there, but he’s still a dervish in his own end. Brandon Carlo also remains unsigned, and was tasked with some of the tougher assignments in the post season, as he certainly has the 6’5″, 220lb frame to take that on. John Moore is here for another three years much to the delight of all the Devils fans who hate him, and Tory Krug still needs to be kept as far away from the offensive zone as possible. There’s not a lot in the Bruins’ system on the blue line that they’re waiting with baited breath for, so assuming that McAvoy and Carlo eventually get signed, as both are restricted and have no leverage, they’re basically running back the same unit as last year.

    Forwards: This is well worn territory yet again, but it always bears repeating. The Bruins boast arguably the best line in the game with Patrice Bergeron centering David Pastrnak and the detestable Brad Marchand. Bergeron is an absolute legend, and is doing things at both ends of the still when his contemporaries in Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews have basically had to choose offense or defense at this point and just stick to one of them. Bergeron is a possession dynamo, one of the smartest players in the game, and will take an absolute pounding night in and night out, he is an instantaneous hall of famer. David Pastrnak is young, dynamic, and has an elite set of hands even if his skating stride isn’t necessarily the prettiest. He has a top flight release on his shot, but isn’t afraid of the corners. Brad Marchand is a slightly more talented Andrew Shaw who has failed miserably every time Patrice Bergeron has been injured or seriously limited by injuries on the ice, and has built his whole career on Bergeron’s back. He showed his ass in the above highlight by doing his best Roger Dorn OLE at the blue line, and still ended up going for a change as the Blues entered the zone. Mites are taught to never change on a back check, let alone after allowing free zone entry while flatfooted. He is an unrepentant dickhead who intends to injure opponents, and if the NHLPA were an actual union invested in the well being of its labor force instead of a loose conglomeration of millionaire 7th-grade-educated hillrods with CTE and coke hangovers, they’d railroad Marchand’s ass right out for endangering the rest of the union’s ability to earn. The day he inevitable wraps his sports car around a tree in Dorchester at 4AM (as is hockey player tradition) cannot come soon enough.

    Elsewhere, David Backes getting double-owned by losing a Game 7 Cup final, and to his former team the Blues would be pretty hilarious, again, if it hadn’t been the Blues winning. Charlie Coyle came home in a curious trade and somehow turned into a playoff dynamo, but it remains to be seen if he can provide consistent second-tier scoring behind the top line for a full 82. David Krejci remains under appreciated, but at 33 his production has begun to slip. Danton Heinen, Jake DeBrusk, and Sean Kuraly will all be expected to take the next step in their respective developments, with DeBrusk’s ceiling being the highest. It’s not a bad group to try throw out there again, but the B’s are far from capped out and have always been top heavy with this group, so it’s curious why they haven’t tried to augment their scoring a little bit on the margins. But it’s doubtful any of the 29 other fanbases are going to be heartbroken if throwing this same group out there again just isn’t quite good enough to win in June.

    Outlook: The Atlantic is a far tougher draw than whatever the Metro is right now, and that’s even with the Leafs still thumb-blasting themselves in the Mitch Marner situation and having a bad blue line. What happened to Tampa was a fluke, and they’re certainly not going anywhere and could have a sizeable chip on their shoulder. The Panthers may finally get it together, but that’s a big if, and the rest of the division is willfully shitty. It’s basically a given that the Bruins will have one of the three guaranteed spots, it’s just a matter of seeding, and in which round they inevitably beat the Leafs, and then in which subsequent round they implode.

    Previous Team Previews

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    New York Islanders

    New York Rangers

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  • Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Connor Murphy

    Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Connor Murphy

    Since that fateful day when Stan Bowman pulled Quenneville’s heart of out his ass and made him sniff it with the Hjalmarsson trade, Connor Murphy’s performance has been a consistent curiosity. He’s often looked like the best Hawks D-man on the ice when he’s healthy. But when you pan out for a longer view of the defense, it’s always felt like being the best of this bunch is like beating a two-legged dog at a digging contest. This year, Murphy will likely need to shoulder the burden of being the only passable defensive defenseman on the Hawks, at least until de Haan gets back.

    2018–19 Stats

    52 GP – 5 G, 8 A, 13 P

    48.63 CF% (-0.4 CF% Rel), 38.8 oZS%

    54.67 GF% (1.29 Rel GF%), 44.44 xGF% (-1.08 Rel xGF%)

    Avg. TOI 19:29

    A Brief History: We’ve always liked Connor Murphy around here, and we all thought we were getting a younger, cheaper Hjalmarsson in him. In some ways, that’s been true. Over the last two years, each has missed extended time due to injury (Murphy last year, Hjalmarsson in 18). They’ve been fairly comparable in those two years, though Hjalmarsson has had an overall edge in defensive play.

    But last year wasn’t particularly kind to our Large Irish Son. He missed 30 games due to a back injury, which is never good for a 6’4” skater. We saw him skating up at the blue line at times as Colliton’s man defense went through what we can only pray is growing pains. His possession metrics, both vanilla (48.63%) and high-danger varieties (39.34%), were underwater on the year, though you might expect that given his zone starts.

    And yet, Murphy was relatively fine next to Carl Dahlstrom. They were the “shutdown pair” for a time, and compared to everyone else on the Hawks’s blue line, the ice was least dangerous when Murphy was out there. Maybe the most interesting stat about Murphy last year is that despite starting in his own zone about 62% of the time, his GF% was second among Hawks D-men who played at least 41 games, second only to Duncan Keith (58 oZS%).

    It Was the Best of Times: Murphy stays healthy and jumps into the top-pairing role with Gustafsson. Hell, you can play them both on their off sides and see what happens. Gus scored 60 on his off side, and Murphy never looked too out of place on his, so whatever. Fuck it. Putting Murphy and Gus together hedges Gus’s awfulness in his own zone. Might as well try it, since the only other true shutdown guy on this team, Calvin de Haan, won’t be around for a month or so.

    It Was the BLURST of Times: Murphy’s back keeps him off the ice for 40% of the year. For all the bitching we’ve done about Murphy’s use since his arrival, Colliton has upped the time we see Murphy on the ice consistently. It’s unlikely we’ll see him with any less than second-pairing minutes. So, aside from injury—which is still a distinct possibility for a man of his significant vertical carriage—the worst scenario is that Murphy can’t adapt to whatever it is that Colliton’s defensive scheme wants him to do, which, based on last year, seems to ask defensemen to skate around the blue line in their own zone.

    Prediction: Murphy continues to toil in the dungeon shifts. When de Haan comes back healthy, he finally gets to play with a worthwhile partner, and the Hawks have a true shutdown pairing. He and de Haan also round out the PK1 unit, which is a vast improvement over Keith–Seabrook. The PK still finishes toward the top of the bottom half of the league (say, 18th), but not because of anything Murphy does. Murphy continues to go underappreciated for the cardinal sin of not being Niklas Hjalmarsson.

    Murphy’s never going to give you sexy numbers, unless, like, a 69 dZS% tickles you. He’s about as representative a defenseman as you’ll find. But with the offensive threats the Hawks have, that’s really all they need.

    Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey.

    Previous Previews

    Robin Lehner

    Corey Crawford

    Adam Boqvist

    Carl Dahlstrom

    Calvin de Haan

    Erik Gustafsson

    Duncan Keith

    Slater Koekkoek

    Olli Maatta