Everything Else

Maybe We Should Prepare To Be Bored

By Sam Fels 1771 0

It’s only one report. And you can hear things differently. But The Athletic’s Scott Powers had some thoughts yesterday, and boy do they set you out to kind of ignore next season. Let’s go through them.

1. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Tuesday the Blackhawks’ offseason objective now that they’ve signed two defensemen is to find a forward or two who could help on faceoffs and the penalty kill.

No question that the Hawks penalty kill sucked, but it sucked because they didn’t have a single d-man who could play on it. Seabrook was too slow to react to anything, Keith didn’t care, Dahlstrom was overwhelmed, Slater Koekkoek has a terminal case of being Slater Koekkoek, and I don’t have to talk about Gustav Forsling anymore so I’m not going to. When Connor Murphy wasn’t out there, and he had way too much to do, it was a problem.

So fine, if you want some quick forwards to apply more pressure, that’s not a bad thing. But it can’t be all that they do. And you could probably fashion a PK out of Toews, Saad, Caggiula, Kampf, Kubalik, and Perlini (whose speed could be a real weapon on the kill if he could be taught where to be).

The whole faceoff thing…aren’t we past this? Kampf had a rough year at the dot last year but was 53% in his rookie year so we know he can do it. The Flyers, Ducks, and Red Wings were in the top ten in faceoffs last year as a team. The Caps, Islanders, Canes, and Avs were in the bottom-10. Faceoffs as a whole aren’t as important as teams still think. Individual draws are, and you’ve got enough for that. It’s not worth tossing $3M at Bellemare to win the occasional draw. Jesus Christ.

2. Powers goes on to project what the team will look like:

Saad-Toews-Sikura

Top Cat-Strome-Kane

Kubalik-Anisimov-Perlini

Caggiula-Kampf-Some Signing

That’s the same forward group that got nowhere near the playoffs last season. Why are we supposed to get excited? Where is this going?

Keith-Gustafsson

de Haan-Seabrook

Maatta-Murphy

That blue line sucks hard. Like golfball through a garden hose hard. It’s also ridiculously slow. Is it better than last year? Sure. but what kind of bar is that?

What’s really worrying is that the rumbling from more than just Powers and Stan’s actual quotes on the Score on Tuesday is that Henri Jokiharju is going to struggle to make the team out of camp. Which is a big fucking problem, because if he can’t crack this he sucks. Yeah, he only had a half season at Rockford, but if he’s all they want you to believe he is than that should be enough. Also, there’s no allowance for Boqvist blowing everyone away in camp, but I guess that’s some miracle now even though Joel Qunneville, a far more experienced coach than the mannequin currently in the position, was making noise that he wanted to keep Boqvist around last year.

Oh, and here’s the kicker:

Jokiharju is probably a better fit than a few of the defensemen listed there, but best fit likely won’t decide which defensemen are in the lineup. Contracts and experience will probably be factored in too, and that could mean Jokiharju is on the outside looking in next season.

THIS IS THE GODDAMN FUCKING HORSESHITING PROBLEM!

Contracts and experience don’t matter when it comes to figure out your lineup (I’m going to turn into Brad Pitt here, “HIS DEFENSE DOES NOT MATTER!”) This is simply the Hawks justifying keeping Seabrook in the lineup. You’re already spending that money and his experience isn’t going to help him not skate and move like he just shit out a badger in his hockey pants so quit doubling your mistake. HIS CONTRACT DOES NOT MATTER.

Anyway, the only other nugget is that the Hawks are terrified of Strome’s and Top Cat’s next contract tying their hands again. An easy solution would be to punt Artem Anisimov into any box marked, “To Timbuktu,” and open up more space. That also opens a spot for Dach to make the team.

And that’s the main problem for me now. Because even if I accept that the Hawks really do regard this as yet another rebuilding year–and please release any video or audio of them selling that to Keith, Seabrook, Toews, and Kane–then that team listed above is your base. And I’m supposed to believe that the additions of Dach and Boqvist and maybe Mitchell make it a Cup contender? Sell that one to me. It’s a playoff team. It’s a decent team. Maybe it makes some noise behind a hot Crawford. But a really good team? I don’t see it.

But it’s a process, not a plan.

Everything Else

Stan’s Off to Market – Free Agent Shopping List: Corey Perry, Toilet Baby

By John Pullega 1799 0

Do you remember the time Stan Bowman signed Brandon Manning and I completely lost my goddamn ass several times about it? Well if you liked that, you’re going to love watching me pull my entrails out of my eye sockets when they sign one of the biggest, dumbest, most useless pieces of shit on ice in Corey Perry.

Just look at what the always wonderful Scott Powers wrote recently:

The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Tuesday the Blackhawks’ offseason objective now that they’ve signed two defensemen is to find a forward or two who could help on faceoffs and the penalty kill. He also reported they have not contacted Lee’s camp and were likely aligning their cap space to pay for next offseason’s deals. LeBrun did mention Corey Perry as a possibility still. –Scott Powers, The Athletic, 06-26-19

Putting aside the hilarious fact that this implies that StanBo thinks Maatta and de Haan solve the blue line problems (they don’t), that Corey Perry is even a possibility is dumbfounding. So great, now we have to dive into this fucking toilet.

Physical Stats

Height: Taller than shit should be allowed to stack; Weight: As in, “Wait! Don’t sign Corey Perry!”

Age: 34; Shot: None

On-Ice Stats (2018–19)

Team: Ducks Position: Horse’s Ass

WHO GP, FUCKING G, CARES A, AT P, ALL PIM

Corey CF%, Perry xGF%, Sucks oZS%

Why the Hawks Should Sign Him

The Hawks should sign Corey Perry if they are looking for an excuse to fire Stan Bowman immediately.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Holy shit, where do you start? Corey Perry is a 34-year-old pylon who can’t skate, can’t score, and can’t contribute in any meaningful way. They already have Brent Seabrook doing that, but at least with Seabrook, there’s the veneer of leadership and memory of three Cups that we like to think about as we await the heat death of the universe that is the end of his contract.

Perry does literally nothing anymore. Last year, he played 31 games, scored six goals, and had 10 points overall. His 47 CF% was not only bad in a vacuum but also bad relative to his team (-2.1 CF% Rel), which was the fifth-worst possession team in the NHL last year. As mentioned in our Pavelski preview, the Hawks weren’t particularly good in possession or transition last year, and Corey Perry will only make them worse.

If you think that’s bad, check this out:

Games Played CF% CF% Rel oZS%
Ryan Kesler (C) 60 44.3 -5.1 37.7
Brian Gibbons (C) 44 44.7 -3.4 53.8
Cam Fowler (D) 59 45.1 -2.6 53.0
Corey Perry (Asshole) 31 47.0 -2.1 55.2

This is the list of guys who played at least 31 games and had worse possession rates than Perry on the Ducks. Kesler’s sort of makes sense, given his evaporated hip and hilariously low offensive zone start rate. If the Hawks signed someone like Brian Gibbons, you’d likely ask, “Who?” or “Why?” And Cam Fowler can’t be bothered to give a shit. On top of everything, Perry got hammock shifts and still sucked out loud in possession. That’s some good company to be in if you want to make a run at the #1 pick.

There is no conceivable situation in which Corey Perry fits. And even if there were, Perry’s held together by a combination of tape, spit, and shit. And let’s just pretend that the Hawks manage to make the playoffs this year. Are you ready to ride the Micheal Haley Experience, wherein a shitty, no-good, non-contributor finds himself on the ice in meaningful situations? Ask Sharks fans how that fucking worked out.

Perry doesn’t even fit the definition of the type of forward StanBo said he was looking for! Holy shit! Throughout his 14-year career, Perry has taken exactly 263 faceoffs and won 75 of them. That’s a 29% win percentage. Over the past two years, Perry has averaged 1.5 seconds on the penalty kill. That’s right: One point fucking five seconds. So if the Hawks are looking for faceoff and/or PK specialists, Corey Perry is not the motherfucker you’re looking for.

You wanna talk about how he won the Hart and Richard in 2011? Fuck you, it’s 2019. You wanna talk about how he’s a four-time All Star? Fuck you, I don’t care, the last time he made the All Star Team John Scott was on it. You wanna talk about how he’d come cheap and only for a year? Fucking sign Matt McClure if that’s the logic. He plays beer league. He’s tall. He can contribute at a similar rate as 2019 Perry. We did this with Sharp, Ladd, Oduya, and others, but at least with those guys, there were warm feelings to sort of mask the poor performances. Not so with Perry, who is a relentless and useless prick.

Verdict

No. Perry has all the appeal of a puddle of sundried sperm. If Bowman signs him, he should be fired out of a cannon into the sun and stripped of all his banners and rings. If you ever wondered how Bowman could cock up a free agent signing worse than Brandon Motherfucking Manning, I present to you Corey Perry, Toilet Baby.

Everything Else

Stan’s Off to Market – Free Agent Shopping List: Joe Pavelski

By John Pullega 1622 0

With unrestricted free agency opening in just four days, let’s get a little weird. The Hawks have allegedly begun addressing the skidmark on the salad fork that is the blue line with de Haan (fine) and Maatta (barf), which means we should probably look at who can fill out the top six on the forward front. If there’s one guy who might be that guy, it’s Joe Pavelski.

Physical Stats

Height: 5’11”; Weight: 190 lbs.

Age: 35; Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (2018–19)

Team: SHA-ARKS Position: Center/Wing

75 GP, 38 G, 26 A, 64 P, 22 PIM

54.7 CF% (0.7 CF% Rel), 56.99 xGF% (3.41 xGF% Rel), 53.3 oZS%

Why the Hawks Should Sign Him

Pavelski is an outstanding possession player who’s capable of slotting as a center or a wing. If the Hawks are going to commit to the idea that large, not-fleet-of-foot defensemen are the way to go (it isn’t), then they’re going to need forwards who can bury the puck in their opponents’ ends (PHRASING) more consistently. The Hawks were slightly below middling in the possession department last year with a 49.34 CF%, which, despite StanBo’s shameless gaslighting, isn’t great for a team with no actual top-pairing D-men. Pavelski’s career is a seminar in consistently good possession.

Pavelski also gives the Hawks DAT GREASY GOAL SCORER Stan wants. And unlike the stale beer farts that are Corey Perry or Wide Dick Arty, Pavelski still has the skating and hands to do more than simply stand in the crease. As much as we scoff at the notion of Annette Frontpresence, Pavelski is the best version of that theory, though the prospect of having to experience Eddie O’s vinegar strokes for each crease goal Pavelski pots is off-putting enough to disqualify him as an option.

His versatility is another plus. You can see him as a winger with Toews and Saad. You can see him centering DeBrincat and Kane. As a righty, you can see him just about anywhere on the PP. This versatility, combined with Pavelski’s offense and possession, would be undeniable enhancements over anything the Hawks had last year.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Cap hit and term are going to be the biggest bugaboos in considering Pavelski. He’s coming off a $6 million per contract and a 38-goal season. Thirty-eight goals are impressive per se, but the fact that he did it at 34 is even more impressive. You can see him trying to squeeze in one more decent contract, and that should give the Hawks pause with DeBrincat due for his Fuck You Pay Me contract next year.

You also need to be concerned about Pavelski’s age and brain booboo from this year’s playoff run. At 35, it becomes more and more likely that the production will fall off a cliff. Though Pavelski’s never shown signs of slowing down (excluding the 2013 season-in-a-can, Pavelski’s scored at least 20 goals a year since 2008–2009), nothing gold can stay, Ponyboy.

And for as good as Pavelski’s possession is, when he’s caught in his own zone, he tends to get buried. This might limit his versatility a bit: God forbid you find him, Top Cat, and Kane stuck in their own zone with any regularity, which is a possibility given Kane’s do-more-with-less style of possession and play.

Verdict

If you can get Pavelski on a one-to-two-year term, the Hawks should take a run at him. He solves a ton of problems, especially in the Annette Frontpresence category. He’s a proven, genuine top-six skater, which would let Beto O’Colliton slot Dominik Kubalik in the bottom six, which is probably the kind of soft landing you’d want to see him get. But if he’s looking for more than two years, it’s a little bit more tenuous. The Hawks would absolutely need to win a Cup to justify more than two years, because at that point, most of the Core would be approaching or past the twilight of their careers.

All of this assumes that Pavelski even wants to leave San Jose. For as good as he’d look in red, black, and white, it’s hard to picture him in anything but teal.

Everything Else

Oh Bob

By Sam Fels 2125 0

I suppose, and hope, one day that Roberto Luongo will become something of a case-study, if not a union martyr, of a player who becomes demonized simply because he accepted a contract that was offered to him. How evil.

Luongo retired today, and there will be some in Vancouver angry at him for not doing the LTIR limbo to save them from the cap-recapture penalty. Which is just the dumbest rule in hockey, if not sports, but then the dumbest rule in sports probably should exist in hockey. It’s definitely something the players’ union should come after in the next CBA negotiations, but probably won’t after their satisfied that they’ll get to go play in an Olympics no one will watch from Beijing and everyone will forget happened like three weeks after. It is their ball of yarn.

And it would be easy to just say, “Well the Canucks are at fault for offering him that,” (and fun, too) but they did it under a different CBA and all they were doing was locking down a team linchpin at the time. It’s a long time ago now, but Luongo signed that deal before the 2009-2010 season, when he was coming off a .920 season with the Canucks and was only 30 years old.

Luongo is lucky in some ways that that contract won’t be the only thing talked about as far as his legacy. He’s unlucky in that anything else that comes with it probably won’t shine all that bright.

It’s hard to discuss Luongo without discussing the playoff flameouts. There’s no way to coat the seven surrendered in Game 6 in ’09, or the 16 he gave up in the three games in Vancouver in ’10, or the .738 SV% in Boston in ’11. These are the facts of the case. But unlike anyone else on that team, Bob never really hid from it, and never tried to lower how much it hurt him that he didn’t come up big in the team’s biggest moments. And he could have used any of the Sedins no disappearing when it mattered, or the Canucks not having an actual top pairing d-man at any time. or Kesler’s body falling apart. You couldn’t find any of those guys when the questions came. Thing 1 or 2, or Kesler, or Bieksa, or Edler all were never heard from in a postgame dressing room. But Bob was always in front of a microphone.

It was that upfront, honest nature that eventually turned most’s opinion on him. A clear sense of humor on social media certainly didn’t hurt. It was bullshit that in the midst of the Vancouver meltdown, he had to tell the press his contract “sucked.” It didn’t suck. He earned that. And his departure from the city and team that no longer wanted him and where he didn’t enjoy playing was delayed merely because he’d played well enough to earn that deal before.

Perhaps there will be no bigger example of a player who was only viewed on his contract than Luongo. He’ll retire with the 10th best all-time SV%, which means he walks with giants. He’ll probably end up being a Hall of Famer, but in reality he should be in the Hall Of Very Good. Never won a Vezina, won only a Jennings, though did finish 2nd in the Hart Trophy once. He’s got a couple gold medals, one as a starter, so that’s something (though I would argue he wasn’t terribly great in 2010 but having a defense consisting of five eventual Norris winners certainly helps).

Perhaps now that contract won’t come into any discussion of Luongo’s career. Those playoff performances will, and that’s fair. Though I’d like to point out he’ll retire with a better playoff SV% than Pekka Rinne, yet nothing ever seems to be Rinne’s fault when it goes balls-up for the Preds. But ha, nothing ever bad happens in Nashville and everyone there is just so wonderful and perfect, don’t you know?

He certainly provided us with more than enough material. He was always an entertaining watch in whatever capacity. And that sort of honesty and personality should be something every player feels free to show but never does. The NHL will miss him, though I doubt it’ll realize it.

Everything Else

Offseason Trade Target: Mike Hoffman

By Sam Fels 1801 0

This one is a bit of a stretch, but we like stretching. Feels good, good for you, keeps you young. Seriously, go to a yoga class if you haven’t. Though preferably one with an instructor with good music taste. You don’t need more Enya-adjace stuff in your life. But you’d be surprised how many do. Anyway, I’m getting off track.

The Cats don’t need to trade Hoffman. They have $23M in space with the news today that Roberto Luongo is retiring. Not even LTIRing into oblivion, retiring. Which fucks over the Canucks a bit, which is highly entertaining if not gratifying, even if it’s because of perhaps the NHL’s dumbest rule–cap recapture penalties. So that means the Panthers have the space to sign both Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, and perhaps have a touch of space leftover. It’s probably more likely they’d try and find a home for James Reimer and find a cheaper backup, but again, they don’t really have to do anything. They don’t have anyone they have to re-sign in the next two years, unless they’re higher on MacKenize Weegar than anyone else is and he’ll be stupid cheap anyway. Dadonov gets a raise next summer, but not a huge one at 31.

Still, last season the Panthers asked Hoffman for his 10-team no trade list, so they have thought about it. And with Panarin on the way probably knocking him down to the third line, and with only one year left on his deal, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to see Florida try and get something back for him.

And Hoffman is a perfect fit into the Hawks top-six, and is coming off a 36-goal season. He’s got that flexibility we love, as he can get you out of a stretch of games playing center if you need. He can play both sides, but has mainly been on the left. Now, that’s where the Hawks have a jam thanks to Saad and DeBrincat, but as we’ve seen Saad actually did his best work hiding on the third line in the weeds. Which could lead to a pretty effective Doomsday line of Hoffman-Toews-Kane if you so chose.

And Hoffman scores. Given an actual center in Barkov saw his numbers soar. In Ottawa he was either with overmatched players like J.G. Pageau or Derick Brassard or shoot-first guys like Matt Duchene. Meaning he had to create all of his own openings. Clearly he took to getting to finish off some others’ creations at times.

While Hoffman is only 6-0 he plays a bigger game than that which would satisfy the Hawks. What satisfies us is he can move too, and would seem to be the perfect blend of the two ideologies.

Financially, Hoffman is only signed for one more year, which means you can reset and see what you have when all is said and done. It also probably keeps his trade cost down a bit. Again, the Panthers have no need to trade him and might be all-in on this season to get back into the playoffs and trading Hoffman isn’t in line with that. Then again, it’s impossible to predict what our namesake Uncle Dale might do. He’s out-thought himself before.

Hoffman’s off-ice issues from last summer seem to have died down, and even if they haven’t that’s entertaining for us, which is all we’re after here.

What do the Panthers need? They probably don’t think much, but I’m no fan of their defense. They already have right-handed Gustafsson in Keith Yandle, except he can actually skate, so that’s probably a no-go. It would be truly cruel to send Connor Murphy back to Joel Quenneville, but perhaps without a point to prove to his GM this time around he might actually give our lovable Irishman a fair shake. If they’re into cost-cutting, one of your magic foursome on the blue line could do the job included with other things.

It’s worth a phone call, and it’s not like Tallon hasn’t dealt with the Hawks before. Even if he tells them to go fuck themselves first, which I’m sure he does.

Everything Else

Stan’s Off To Marker – Free Agent Shopping List: Hey Do We Have Any Of That Plutonium Nyquist Left?

By Sam Fels 1480 0

Continuing our look at the sparse free agent market, we turn to the winger perhaps below the class of Pavelski or Lee, but would be an awfully solid signing, Gustav Nyquist.  And also maybe our most esoteric reference ever. 

Gustav Nyquist

Height: 5-11   Weight: 184 lbs.

Age: 29 (3o on Opening Night)  Shoots: Left

2018-2019 Stats

81 games – 22 G – 38 A – 60 P – 12 PIM

53.1 CF% (+4.9 Relative) 53.0 xGF% (+7.6 Relative)  52.7 ZSR

Why The Hawks Should Sign Him

Because he kind of does a lot. He’s played both sides in his career, and even moonlighted at center in an emergency, but mostly sticks to the right side. At the moment, that’s where the Hawks’ gap in the top six is. He’s not a prolific goal-scorer, but has put up over 20 in four of the past six seasons, and when getting to play on a real team again in San Jose saw his highest goals-per-game rate since 2015, the last time the Wings were even close to worth a shit. Unlike recent additions and whispers, Nyquist can actually move around the ice quickly. He is not defensively inept either, and has driven the play and chances and expected goals at above the team rate every year of his career, which continued in San Jose and it was not easy to be above the team-rate there. He did it with slanted offensive zone starts but not terribly so, and could be a player you’d ask to join say Toews and Saad in taking a fair share of defensive draws but turning the ice over. Toews needs the help, and Nyquist can provide it, which is something Lee’s footspeed and Pavelski’s age make a question. Nyquist also might come in cheaper than the other two, coming off a $4.7M hit and after a 22-goal, 60-point season he probably isn’t going to exceed that by much or at all. If the flexibility for DeBrincat and hopefully Strome next summer is a concern, Nyquist would not interfere with that.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

First off, age is a question. He will be 30 when the season opens, and as he creeps deeper into that decade and loses a half step or step it’s a wonder how much his game will be affected. I might not care about the next, but the Hawks clearly think size is a problem for them and Nyquist doesn’t do anything about that. If he loses any scoring touch at all, he’s a third-liner at best and you can’t say for sure that he can transition into a full-time checking winger. The Hawks are short another 30-goal guy, as Saad hasn’t proven to be one, and Nyquist isn’t going to be one either. That leaves only Kane, Top Cat, and another Toews renaissance and you might need one more. All of this is question on term. Nyquist also hasn’t ever really killed penalties, so he won’t help there.

Verdict

In truth, Nyquist would be a great signing in addition to a big splash like Lee or Pavelski. Suddenly you’d be swimming in forward depth, counting on a second-line player like Nyquist for third-line scoring. Given his smarts, he’d be a nice compliment to Dach if the latter makes the team. It would depend on what he’s looking for and cost. If you could get Nyquist for just three years and around $4M, he’d be a steal. Having him around until he’s 35 is a risk, and anything about $5M feels a little excessive. He can do a job, but he’s more a support beam than foundational. You could do way worse, though. Like Perry.

Everything Else

The Road Leads Where It’s Led – Schedule Is Out

By Sam Fels 1546 0

In case you need to make plans or something, the NHL released its full schedule for the 2019-2020 season today. The Hawks one has some quirks:

-After opening the season in Prague, which we knew about, the Hawks will get five days off and then have the next seven and eight of nine at home. I’m not sure that’s how the front office would have designed it if given the chance, but it does give the Hawks the chance to bounce out of the gates if they can turn it back into Fortress UC again. Which would be helped if Coach Cool Youth Pastor knew anything about matchups and zone starts, but let’s save that bitching for another time.

That homestand bounces from one extreme to the other, with dates against the Oilers, stripped down Jackets, and Flyers, contrasted with visits from the Knights, Caps, and Sharks to kick it all off. We obviously don’t know shit now, but as everything is presently you can easily see the Hawks coming out of that barely .500 too.

-The Hawks will back that up with seven of the next nine on the road, with an early-November sojourn out to Southern California.

-The end of November will see the Hawks home for five of six again, including their first ever home game on Black Friday afternoon against the Avs, which isn’t going to feel completely weird at all or anything.

-December is awfully busy with 15 games, and quick roadies to Boston and Newark, the desert swing plus St. Louis, Winnipeg and Denver, and then Columbus, Calgary, and Vancouver spread over New Year’s.

-They’ll get the All-Star break and bye week Jan. 22nd through February 1st.

-There will be a second Western Canada swing in the middle of February, which is bookended by trips to Winnipeg. They’ll only be home for two games before going back out on the road for four, Dallas to St. Louis to the Florida swing.

-March is where it will be decided probably, with another 15-game slate but 11 of which are at home. If they need to really clean up there, that’s how you’d want it.

-They’ll end the season in New York, playing the Isles at Nassau and then the Rangers at MSG.

-Joel Qunneville’s return is January 21st, the day before the break. We’re all going to need it after that.

And now in list form:

Schedule

 

Everything Else

Stan’s Off To Market – Free Agent Shopping List: Anders Lee

By Sam Fels 1698 0

Monday is when the doors fly open and GMs go climbing and rushing over each other for the chance to splash the cash on whatever player or players they think will take them to the promise land. Or save their jobs. Stan Bowman and the Hawks have been making noise at being interestingly active for once past July 1, so what might they be in the mood for? We start with the winger they’ve been most heavily linked to. 

Anders Lee

Height: 6-3  Weight: 231

Age: 28 (29 on Opening Night)  Shoots: Left

2018-2019

Team: New York Islanders

82 games – 28 G – 23 A – 51 P – 58 PIM

49.2 CF% (+1.96 Relative)  54.2 xGF% (+4.29 Relative)  49.5 Zone-Star Rating (or offensive zone starts

Why The Hawks Should Sign Him

What they’ll tell you, though we might not necessarily believe, is size and goals. Lee would immediately become the Hawks’ main power forward threat, now that Artem Anisimov is no more than a fourth-line winger if not garbage to be jettisoned before the jump into hyperspace. On the top six, the only winger with size at the moment is Brandon Saad, and he’s not really much of a crease-crasher, space-eater, greasy goal-getter. While we might hem and haw, you do need that somewhere and Lee does that. And the dude scores. 28 last year, 4o the year before when playing with Tavares, 34 the year before that. That 102 goals over the past three years ranks Lee 12th in the league, ahead of names like Skinner, Seguin, and MacKinnon and right behind Kane and Draisaitl. Goals are still the name of the game. While the 28 goals might look a drop, Lee moved from the first line to the second line with Brock Nelson and Jordan Eberle.

While Lee isn’t exactly swift, he does carry the “moves well for his size” label. And perhaps under the radar, the dude is good in both ends, with an expected goals percentage way over the team-rate both last year and three seasons ago and consistently ahead of it every year. And he’s done that with Captain Jack Capuano‘s Fury Road With No Planning methods or Barry Trotz’s cure for insomnia. So he can do just about whatever you ask him. He’s also been the picture of durability, missing nine games in the past five seasons total.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Well, that depends on how much you think speed matters in the game in terms of size. Lee won’t make the Hawks any faster, and they already are behind in the game when it comes to speed with which it is played. It’s also a little hard to picture where Lee would line up. He’s almost always been a left-winger, but you wouldn’t necessarily want to play him with Kane unless Toews was between them. As we’ve seen, Kane will make just about anything work but ideally has an actual sniper on the other side instead of just a crease-crasher. Lee isn’t really that. You could play him with Toews and RW du jour (Saad?) and have a hybrid scoring/checking line again, if Toews is up for that. Lee also might come at a higher price than you might think given that goals-standing over the past three seasons. He will be 29 when the season starts, so committing a ton of years to him might just leave you with an awfully expensive Andrew Ladd (now) on your hands in three or four years.

Verdict

Much like his former teammate in de Haan, you can’t see how a Lee signing would make the Hawks any worse. He would be an excellent weapon on the power play blotting out the sun, and he can do more than just stand there and shift out and make plays as well like Strome did. Whether that’s on the first or second unit, it would certainly strengthen it. The Hawks need someone to occupy defenders down low, and Lee does that, which should open up more space for the more creative forwards he plays with. And he probably helps defensively, too.

On the other hand, we’re talking about a not all that quick player heading into his 30s, and you have to wonder how much of a step he can lose before the hands and brain can’t compensate any more.

Like with anything, it’ll depend on the deal. You’d be awfully antsy about handing him more than five years, or anyone really. Second, given that goal-total the past three years, Lee wouldn’t be remiss in asking for $8M or more. Jeff Skinner, whose numbers Lee has essentially matched the past three seasons, just signed an extension that’s $9M per year. On the other end, Cam Atkinson–another numbers match–is only paid $5.8M per year, though he signed that extension a little while ago.

Eyeballing it, the upper-limit on what I would hand Lee is $7M per year. And that’s if you absolutely have to. That would still leave the Hawks with wiggle room to either do more or save space for DeBrincat and Strome (if he earns it). Skinner’s $9M seems too high as he has four 30-goal seasons on his resume to Lee’s two. Even $8M feels that way. If you can get Lee in for between $6-7M and for five years, six at the absolute max, you’ve probably got a good deal. Otherwise, shop better.

Everything Else

It’s Movement, But Is It Just Deck Chairs?

By Sam Fels 1931 0

Well, let’s state this at the top. If you take the non-NHL quality defensemen out of the equation–or at least the ones who aren’t worthy of a top-six most nights–and the Hawks were to open the season with some iteration of Keith, Maatta, Murphy, de Haan, Jokiharju, and Gustafsson on the blue line, it would be better than they ended with. I don’t know that it would be good, but it would be better. I also highly doubt that’s the plan.

So let’s start here:

This is true. Now everyone knows I don’t like Maatta at all, but I do like de Haan. And the Hawks do need to get better at actual defending without the puck. These two…well, at least de Haan, are improvements on that from Dahlstrom and Forsling and Koekkoek. And if this were Quenneville, you’d see the actual layout. These free safeties would be paired with the more free-wheeling Keith, Jokiharju (maybe?) and Gustafsson (if only he had wheels to be free).

But this isn’t Wayne’s basement. This is Colliton, whose “system” isn’t really dependent on positioning and angles, but on harassing and chasing all over the zone. At least that’s what we’re led to believe. Is that changing? Being tweaked? Sure, de Haan helps no matter what, but blocking more shots isn’t the problem. Well, it’s not THE problem. It’s stopping those shots from being taken at all.

Oh were you now?

Because what I saw was some shitty goddamn metrics whose specific task is to tell us what kind of transition team you were. And who’s getting this team up the ice now to avoid all those shots against again? In theory, de Haan is the perfect partner for Jokiharju to show off whatever transition and offensive flair he has (which I have to be convinced is there at all). So there’s one. It’s not really Keith’s wheelhouse anymore, and it probably never was. Maybe in a lesser role Keith can do some of that the way he used to, but then you’re implying someone can take the major minutes. That person is not here. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to be here anytime soon, unless you believe that absolute most in Adam Boqvist. And brother, I want to see the world the way you do if that’s the case.

The Hawks still have this “logjam” on defense which again, is just a clogged toilet. In any rational world. Koekkoek, Dahlstrom, and Seabrook don’t even enter this discussion. The first two are in Rockford, the last one is eating pressbox popcorn most nights (and almost certainly way too much of it, topped with carnitas). So how do you solve that?

One rumor or feeling is that Murphy will go. But slotting in de Haan for Murphy is at best the very definition of a lateral move, except you’ve gotten older, more expensive, a touch slower, and with the same injury and health concerns. As always, it depends on the return, but to me that just keeps your defense spinning its wheels.

Gustafsson, given his numbers and contract should have as much if not more value for this season to a team, and if you really believe in Jokiharju’s offensive upside he can do most of what Gus did on the power play. And he might be a better weapon there in some ways, given that he’s right-handed and could one-time Kane’s passes from the boards. But that’s another hole to be filled, and you don’t have the answers.

Again, nothing about this solves the long-term outlook of the top pairing. Now, you could sit here and say the last three Cup champs didn’t have a real top-pairing d-man other than John Carlson and the one year Kris Letang was healthy. But all those teams featured four 1b-2b d-men. How many do the Hawks have right now? Murphy maybe? The absolute best version of Jokiharju? Can Keith claim that anymore? de Haan now but in a year or two? Boqvist really?

The Hawks passed on solving a big portion of this by not drafting Byram, which is fine if Dach is really their top of the board guy. They passed on this in the short term by not making an offer for Subban or Trouba. But now how is this solved in the next three years? Do you see a path? Little hard, isn’t it? Seems like a lot is riding on the very slight shoulders of Boqvist.

It’s good that they recognize the problems. And it’s good that they’re trying to do something about it. It’s good they’ve been aggressive. My fear is that it all signifies nothing, though.

Everything Else

Well, It’s A Start – Hawks Acquire Calvin de Haan

By Matt McClure 3017 0

Earlier in the day, friend of the program Jay Zawaski wrote and went on air with Laurence Holmes stating that the Hawks were going to look to the trade market to improve their historically bad blue line, and threw out the names of either Justin Faulk or Calvin de Haan from Carolina, and the Hawks have now acquired the latter in exchange for Anton Forsberg and Gustav Forsling, both of whom are restricted free agents.