Everything Else – Page 62 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #43 – Hawks vs Islanders Q&A: Dan Saraceni, Who Has Resisted The Hipster Charms Of Brooklyn

By Sam Fels January 3, 2019 1683 0

Dan Saraceni is one-half of the editing team at LightHouseHockey.com. You can follow him on Twitter @CultureOfLosing.

After losing Tavares, the Isles are somehow hanging around a playoff spot in the East. How and why?

I’d like to just write, “TROTZ” but it’s a little more complex than that. Yes, having a coach who actually knows what he’s doing makes a big difference. And after three straight coaches getting their feet wet in the NHL (two with AHL experience, one just as an NHL assistant), having a guy show up with a defined game plan and a crew that’s worked for 20+ years and a Stanley Cup changes a lot of things. There’s way less headless chicken action going on out there and everyone seems to be on the same page regardless of skill level (or lack thereof). The goalies have also been lights out, which can be traced back to better defensive play and – again – coaches like Mitch Korn and Piero Greco that actually have a clue. Whether they actually make the playoffs is still up in the air, but playing like an actual NHL team and not beer league walk-ons has been fun so far.

Is Jordan Eberle playing himself into being actually affordable in the summer for the Isles? Or is he still going to do one?

Eberle is hurt right now, and Josh Ho-Sang has been more than holding his own in Eberle’s spot on the second line. I don’t know if we know why he’s been so unproductive this season, but it’s not really the way you want to go into a UFA year. Between him and the Islanders’ other UFAs (steady captain Anders Lee and the suddenly awakened Brock Nelson), Eberle is easily the odd man out and could be a rental for someone at the deadline. He’ll be coming off a $6 million a year contract from the Oilers, so I don’t know if he’ll come cheap to whoever signs him. If he somehow loves Long Island, maybe he’ll stay but it’s probably not happening.

What on Earth has happened to Nick Leddy? Only 11 points and his metrics smell worse than a skunk on a hot day.

This is from October by our LHH colleague Cary: https://www.lighthousehockey.com/2018/10/23/18014512/nick-leddy-analysis-islanders-slump. Although he’s looked better lately, Leddy’s problems stretch back to the middle of last season, and no one’s sure what happened. It’s frustrating watching a guy who can skate that smoothly and carry the puck well do jack shit with it (especially on the power play. Maybe some guys just aren’t made to be quarterbacks). Maybe he’s trying to do too much or getting too caught up in the defensive aspects of Trotz’s system, but the points just aren’t coming for him and it’s a problem that (so far) the Islanders have managed to overcome. Again, he’s looked okay lately, but when you’re winning, everything looks okay.

Does Lou Lamoriello really provide any hope for Islanders fans or is he the dinosaur we think he is?

Lou provides hope that the New York Islanders can be run like an actual, adult NHL franchise for the first time in a generation. Yes, he’s old as shit and his various rules are largely stupid (ask Dom!). But after years of out-of-the-box thinking, it’s been refreshing to see the Islanders think within the box for a change. Like hiring people to do jobs that most NHL teams have and making changes when stuff isn’t working. That might be a low bar to clear, but it’s something the Islanders haven’t been able to do in quite some time. Any GM is only as good as his last deal, but so far, having Lou looking over everyone’s shoulders has been good for the franchise.

Game #43 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #43 – Hawks vs. Islanders Douchebag Du Jour: Jordan Eberle And How Not To Be A Free Agent

By Sam Fels January 3, 2019 1554 0

Before the season, Jordan Eberle probably had every reason to be excited. After this campaign, he would be an unrestricted free agent for the first time. And while he’s never quite proven to be the top line talent he has flashed at various times, players who consistently put up 60+ points can expect to make $6 or $7 million or more. That’s what Eberle makes now, so he was probably dreaming of a raise on what will be his last big contract.

And in 35 games he’s not even averaging a half-point per game. Whoops!

We’ve always thought Eberle was something of a luxury player. If you had everything else in place or thereabouts, you could afford to have Eberle weaving his pretty patterns on your top six without requiring him to do much dirty work. Because he’s always been on a team that has never been close to having everything, he’s always disappointed just a touch. Even with all those points.

He seems the idealized Kris Versteeg, at least in Versteeg’s mind. Though Steeger never minded doing the defensive work and could be trusted with a specific assignment. You get more skill with Eberle and the ability to produce something out of nothing, but you don’t get the defensive side. So it leads one to wonder why anyone should give a shit.

Eberle has only been in the playoffs once, and while it’s never entirely fair to blame one player for that, especially a winger, Eberle has always been in a top six. So he’s supposed to be making a difference. And you can’t really argue he ever has. And with his big chance to convince teams otherwise that will have open checkbooks in July, he’s got seven goals.

That’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works.

Game #43 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #43 – Hawks vs. Islanders: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 3, 2019 1334 0

Game #43 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #43 – Hawks vs. Islanders: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 3, 2019 1430 0

Notes: Caggiula is still having visa delays so he won’t be here tonight…Hayden is in for Martinsen, which seems to be the normal rotation…Forsling has a max of three games to show why he shouldn’t be launched west on I-90 posthaste when Jokiharju returns from the WJC…the Hawks had one of their strongest possession games against the Bruins, shame they lost…

Notes: Look at these clean-shaven hunks! The Lamoriello Influence, catch the fever!…Filppula and Eberle miss out through injury, so Kuhnhackl slots in…Ladd and Hickey are also absent…Barzal has six goals and nine points in his last five games…the second line has gotten a jump from Ho-Sang, it’s a question whether Eberle will slot back in when he’s healthy…good god Nick Leddy…

Game #43 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – January 2nd

By Sam Fels January 2, 2019 1079 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Avalanche – 8:30

Every time I think the Sharks are getting ready to cook, they do something like give up eight to the Flames that would have seen them move back into first, or lose to the Coyotes, or find a way to lose to the Kings. Their problems are clear, in that Martin Jones is turning into Denis Lemieux, and if this is their only season with Erik Karlsson (doubtful), then they’re going to have to have serious talks about what they’re going to do in the crease. The Avs have also sputtered of late, as if you can call losing to the Hawks twice at home in eight days anything else. When their top line isn’t motoring, this is what you get. They’re still comfortably in a playoff spot, as their four points clear of falling out of one. Both will see the turn in calendar as a chance to start anew. And both probably need to.

Second Screen Viewing

Oilers vs. Coyotes – 8:30

It really is a shame that Brandon Manning’s debut won’t happen at home, because you feel like one of his patented mistakes in a corner would send the Oilers faithful into hysteria, as they finally seem ready to turn on Peter Chiarelli full stop. But it’ll come in the outpost of Glendale, where he can make his tree-falling act in a place with no one to hear it. It’ll just be nice to watch it happen to someone else.

Other Games

Canucks vs. Senators – 6pm

Flames vs. Red Wings – 6pm

Penguins vs. Rangers – 6pm

Devils vs. Stars – 7:30

Everything Else

At Some Point You’ve Got To Be The Boss

By Sam Fels January 2, 2019 2173 0

It seems a touch pointless to write this now, as Cam Ward was fine in the Winter Classic. He wasn’t great, and perhaps a more athletic goalie would have gotten to Bergeron’s equalizer in the second. But it came on a bad bounce, which is more poor luck than poor play. But it’s the fact that Ward started at all that’s worrying, if only slightly.

This of course could be a case of the Hawks trying to “showcase” Ward in case he can be flogged for a mid-round pick at the deadline. Except teams have 11 years of data on Ward at this point. And if the Hawks had figured anything out with him this season that would lead anyone to believe he’s changed from his Carolina days, then “.888” would be in big, flashing, neon lights to dissuade from that notion. Cam Ward isn’t going anywhere, and if he does it’s because some GM started to drip brain fluid out of their ear and didn’t think much of tossing a 7th-round pick aside. Let’s just say I’m skeptical that was or is the case going forward.

What bothers me, as we’ve repeatedly stated, is that there was no case to start Ward yesterday. Whether the Hawks genuinely believe they can still salvage this season or they’re already turning their eyes to tomorrow, Collin Delia is the choice in either case. And if you think you have to have this game, because it’s your showcase game on national TV and all that, Delia is again the better choice. He’s playing better, he might be the goalie of the future, and on it goes. There’s no equation you can go through that doesn’t have “x = Delia.”

Jeremy Colliton‘s quotes of “guys respecting Ward in the room” and “veteran status” don’t really help much, either. And it’s not only because it’s giving me Dusty Baker “gotta be fair to Holly, dude” flashbacks. Because in his short stint, Colliton has yet to prove he can play hardball with any veteran player aside from Chris Kunitz or Brandon Manning, and that’s batting practice. Cam Ward shouldn’t draw any more water than those two do or did, and yet here we are.

During their streak of incompetence (the second one, in case you were wondering), Colliton never pulled either Crawford or Ward even when they were giving up multiple goals early, and bad ones at times. A goalie-pull isn’t always on the goalie either, and is sometimes used as commentary on how horseshit the skaters have been. That switch was never flipped, though even we said it might look a little awkward for a coach barely in the job to hang Crawford out to dry with all he’s been through. But it certainly was an option to be used, and Colliton never did. And things just got worse. Even Crow’s confidence can be broken. It felt at the time that Colliton didn’t have any answers, or was afraid, or was simply frozen.

So what does that mean for the harder calls that are coming if Colliton can’t even bring himself to sit Ward for yesterday? Gustav Forsling‘s constant nosebleeds will give Coach Cool Youth Pastor some cover when Henri Jokiharju returns from the WJC, but the Brent Seabrook reckoning is coming at some point soon. Does Colliton have the tires to tell that accomplished of a player he’s in a suit for the night? For repeated nights? And that said, what would be the pairings if you sit Forsling? Are you flipping Jokiharju to his off-side to keep the other pairs that are working in tact? Seems a bit much on the kid.

Duncan Keith is still getting the most ice-time, and he was awful yesterday. Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom have taken the hard shifts off of him at least, but they should be creeping up on him in time on ice and they’re not yet. Is it Colliton who will tell Keith he’s a second-pairing player? Do you believe that?

At some point, you have to the coach, no matter your age and experience. The Hawks put Colliton in a near-impossible situation, but that doesn’t mean he can ignore it. Telling Ward to do one would be a nice start, because whatever the players say they know that Delia right now is the better option, and the players want to win every game despite what the team’s aims might be. It would be a good first step to the harder talks and decisions that are coming. But you have to start making these choices first.

Everything Else

Game #42 – Starch and Parchment Laid the Laws When Bishops Took the Ride Only to Deceive – Bruins 4, Hawks 2

By John Pullega January 1, 2019 1965 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

Another Winter Classic, another loss for the Hawks. The Hawks played decently for the most part, which makes this loss a bit more frustrating than usual, but you can’t put Boston on the power play and expect them not to score. Still, there’s some good to take from this game. Let’s do the bullets.

– After my total psychotic breakdown about Cam Ward starting, Cam Ward was probably the best Hawk on the ice today. None of the goals he gave up were goals he had a chance on. The first was the result of a bad clearing attempt by Kruger after a weak and off-balance pass from Dahlstrom. Bergeron just picked Kruger’s pocket at the point and swept a pass to a wide open Pastrnak, past an off-kilter Dahlstrom. The second came off an unfortunate deflection off Seabrook’s skate on the PK. With Pastrnak trying to thread a pass to DeBrusk in the blue paint, the puck ricocheted off Seabrook’s skate and directly to Bergeron in the slot. The third was a result of Gustav Forsling being a giant bag of ass. It’s clear that the predictive success of Fels Motherfuck is directly proportional to how red and nude we get toward the person we’re motherfucking, because Ward was really, really good today.

– Brendan Perlini and Dylan “Stop Fucking Calling Me Tyler, Eddie” Sikura looked great early on. Perlini’s goal while open in the slot was a relief, and the way it got set up was really fun to watch. Dahlstrom was on the far boards with the puck and fell down, only to recover and tip the puck to Kampf. Kampf pushed it to Sikura who shot it wide left. Krejci tried to corral it behind the net, only to run into Kampf, who stole it away and fed a perfect pass to Perlini. Perlini saw a whole lot less time later in the game, and it’s hard to understand why, given how noticeable he was early.

– Jonathan Toews had himself a nice game. You can trace Kahun’s goal in the second to Toews’s effort behind the net. After getting tripped, Toews recovered quickly and shoved a strong pass from behind the net to Gus at the point. Gus’s point shot ended up behind Rask thanks to Kahun’s high-slot tip, but none of it happens without Toews showing off some Old Man Strength. He also hit the post late in the third, coming just inches away from tying it up.

– David Kampf had a good game throughout as well. His steal and pass to Perlini in the first was high art, and he had an exceptional break up at center ice with the Bruins on a 5-on-3 PP in the third. The fancy stats don’t flesh it out, but Kampf looked to be in all the right places at all the right times.

– You could not say the same about Gustav Forsling. The game-winning goal was a clinic in why we think Forsling sucks. First, he failed to clear the puck because he was busy getting smashed into the glass by Chris Wagner. He struggled to recover, which put the Blackhawks way out of position up top, forcing Martinsen to try to traverse the length of the ice to cover the far side. Once Forsling finally got to the area code where he should have been, Kuraly simply beat him to the rebound.

You’d be less upset about this if Forsling were delivering the puck movement and offense he’s supposed to provide, but he doesn’t even do that. He was directly responsible for suffocating two Hawks drives because of poor shot choices. If he’s not delivering offense and he clearly sucks on defense, what is it he does here?

– We’ve all had enough of Artie, whether on the second line or in general. His trip led to Boston’s first PP goal, and he couldn’t keep up with play at all. He and Keith brought up the rear with a 41+ CF% in a game in which the Hawks controlled possession with a 55% share.

– That Weezer song about ride-sharing is worse than I could have imagined.

The Hawks put together a decent effort, but they couldn’t overcome the Marchand–Bergeron–Pastrnak line. It’s hard to be mad about this loss, considering how much worse it could have been. It’s over now, and God willing we’ll never have to do another Notre Dame tilt again.

Onward . . .

Booze du Jour: Cruse champagne (they were out of Andre)

Line of the Night: “Anisimov, not moving his feet.” – Pierre, stating the obvious

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks Preview/Rudy Cosplay: It Doesn’t Get Worse Than This

By John Pullega January 1, 2019 1877 0

vs.

RECORDS: Bruins 21-14-4 Hawks 15-20-6

PUCK DROP: Noon Central

TV: NBC

Beantown, Because Boston Is a Concrete Fart: Stanley Cup of Chowder

What better way to nurse a hangover than to watch this Blackhawks team play this Boston team at the unnecessarily hallowed and despicably overrated grounds of Notre Dame? In a successful attempt to prove that hell exists and that it’s taken residence wherever hockey goes, we’ll get to experience arguably the worst fanbase in America cheer on arguably the biggest douchebag in hockey at arguably the biggest sham of a university against inarguably one of the worst teams in hockey. Happy fucking New Year.

Starting with the Bruins, it seems like Tuukka Rask has finally put whatever family demons he was dealing with behind him. Since his leave of absence that spanned a few days in November, Rask has been riding the waves between middling and good. His even-strength save percentage on the year is .925, and his shorthanded percentage is a strong .896. Hilariously, it’s been his performance on the power play that’s done the most harm, as he’s somehow managed to post a .759 on the man advantage, which is really something. He’s coming off a strong performance at Buffalo, pitching a .929 in an overtime win on the 29^th.

Per usual, the Bruins rely heavily on Patrice Bergeron (12 G, 19 A), David Pastrnak (23 G, 25 A), and perpetual passenger Brad Marchand (12 G, 29 A) for just about everything. This line has accounted for nearly 41% of all of Boston’s offense this year, and that’s with Bergeron missing a month between November and December with an upper body injury. This line will score, dominate possession (57+ CF%), and then rub your face in it if you let them on the advantage. Of Pastrnak’s 23 goals, 10 have come on the PP, which is second behind Patrik Laine.

Then of course there’s Brad Marchand, who will likely get an honorary degree from Notre Dame for being the most insufferable asshole to visit the stadium since the Class of 2018 graduated. He’s doing his usual routine of scoring just over a point per game while racking up penalty minutes being the most annoying nuisance this side of a dog with the squirts on a white carpet. There is a small chance that he won’t play due to an upper body injury, but given what a horse’s ass he is, bank on him being out there and causing some kind of injury, whether physical or mental, to all involved.

DeBrusk and Krejci anchor the second line, and it looks like Ryan Donato will ride next to them today. DeBrusk is on a 30-goal pace, and when Krejci has scorers on his wing he’s dangerous, so if the Hawks go hot and heavy against the first line (as they should), you can expect some damage from here.

After that, it’s retreads and generated names. Noted Dog Murderer David Backes won’t suit up because he’s a crooked penis in the midst of a three-game suspension for, what else, an illegal hit to the head. Former Blackhawk Joakim Nordstrom plays in the bottom six here, which is probably summation enough. There’s some excitement about former second rounder Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, but it’s not clear why. Colby Cave or Chris Wagner doing anything for you? No?

The big news on the blue line for the Bruins is the loss of moon-faced Ice Time spokesman Charlie McAvoy. McAvoy has missed extended time once already this year for a concussion and was placed on IR last week with a lower body injury. When McAvoy’s been healthy, he’s been effective offensively, scoring 11 points in 17 games.

Elsewhere, Zdeno Chara continues to do a terrible job of convincing anyone that he isn’t actually Rasputin. At 41, he’s still taking more than 21 minutes a night. He’s also recently returned from an MCL injury, but prior to it, he was playing well on the positive side of the possession ledger. He and Brandon Carlo, who earlier this month snapped a 115-game scoreless streak, serve primarily as the Bruins shutdown pairing. Torey Krug will be a terror in the offensive zone and absolutely nothing else. He’ll pair with John Moore who, probably for the first time in his life, won’t be the whitest person in the room.

As for the men of Four Feathers, hoo boy. Jeremy Colliton announced that he’s starting Cam Ward, according to Eric Lear. There have been several low points this year, but this already ranks in the top five, after Crow hitting his head and Bowman signing Brandon Manning as a solution to a problem the Hawks didn’t have. And he’s doing it because “He’s an important part of our group…Guys respect him and he’s played well for us.” Fuck off with that fish shit. The only thing that might be true about that is “guys respect him.” He’s not important and he has not played well for the Hawks by any metric. Holy shit, Jeremy, your trip to Notre Dame is the time you decide to make the Cool Youth Pastor moniker inapplicable? Someone hit this motherfucker with a surprise left. Either Colliton is really this stupid or this is coming from higher up (think Bowman or McDonough). I’m not sure which would be more infuriating.

There is no reason to start anyone other than Collin Delia no matter what your criteria are. Delia has played better, looked better, and is far, far more Irish than Ward. Christ, he’s posted a .957 against the MacKinnon line twice and Dallas’s “fucking horseshit” line! What else does he have to do to earn this, besides suck for 14 years, apparently? There’s really no argument against him, except if you want the Hawks to purposely tank in an effort for Hughes. But even if that did happen, there’s still a more-than-likely chance they’ll lose the lottery anyway, so, I guess fuck off with that mess.

Jesus Christ, they’re really gonna start Ward. This is like asking your parents for a puppy at Christmas and having them throw pieces of dog shit from a dog that isn’t yours at you on Christmas morning while yelling “NOT UNTIL YOU CLEAN UP AFTER IT.”

Other than this gigantic giardiniera fart, Sikura and Perlini have flipped, putting them on the third and fourth lines, respectively. Even though DeBrincat has done everything and more to earn a Top-6 spot, somehow Wide Dick on the wing with Strome and Kane is sort of working, so that’ll stand pat. The other thing that shouldn’t be working but is, is Keith–Gustafsson, which, whatever. Hockey is stupid sometimes.

The Hawks have had a nice run lately, and ironically, it’s come thanks to a strong power play and goaltending. If Dahlstrom–Murphy can shut down the Bergeron line, the Hawks continue to perform with the man advantage, and Ward somehow gets pulled within the first 10 seconds, you can see them pulling a stunner.

That is, of course, if you can get past all the pomp and circumstance of playing at Notre Dame. You’ll no doubt learn more than you ever wanted to know about its sterilized history, about how Bowman is an alumnus, and about how Jesus Christ is staging his Second Coming at South Bend. It’ll all be made even more insufferable with Pierre, Roenick, and Milbury all having a role in this one, where they will no doubt turn this game into their own personal St. Patrick’s Day of mindless self-indulgence about Notre Dame’s long traditions of grooming boys to be men while pretending they and the university writ large don’t have all the character and fortitude of an unflushed toilet. Oh, and Weezer is playing at some point during an intermission. I sure can’t wait to hear their new hit single about ride-sharing or whatever other banal aspect of rich, white dork culture Rivers Cuomo is peddling as art these days.

Hell is real, and it is located at South Bend.

Fuck Notre Dame. Fuck Boston. Fuck Weezer. Fuck Cam Ward.

Let’s go Hawks.

Game #42 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks Spotlight: Burrito, Doritos, Fiesta, Pastrnak

By Sam Fels January 1, 2019 1568 0

We have a working theory around the lab, we’ve kicked it around for years. While some will tell you that Brad Marchand in the best left wing in the game, we tend to think he’s pretty much a product of getting to play with the best two-way center in the game in Patrice Bergeron his entire career. Before this season, Marchand had spent all of four minutes away from Bergeron in his entire career. It would be impossible to separate the two, let’s say. Thanks to Bergeron’s early-season injury, we got a glimpse (and Don Cheadle didn’t even arrive!) of what Marchand is like without #37. It wasn’t pretty.

David Pastrnak needn’t worry about such labels. He’s the real deal.

Pastrnak’s 92 goals the past three seasons rank him fifth in the league in that time. It’s more than McDavid, or Tavares, or Crosby. His 198 points rank 13th, ahead of names like Draisaitl, Panarin, and Gaudreau. He doesn’t seem to get nearly the pub that others in the highest-echelon of scorers get, but that’s what he is.

And what’s more is that he hasn’t always needed Bergeron to produce. Whereas Marchand’s metrics crater without his center, Pastrnak’s hold steady. While together they produce a nearly 60% CF%–and over three years that’s just stupid–Pastrnak’s away from Bergeron’s hold at 50%. This season that difference is smaller at 57% to 53%. Over his career, the scoring-chance percentage difference for Pastrnak with and without Bergeron is 60%-50%. It’s the same this year, though Bergeron has the same spilts without #88. The high-danger chances are the closest marks, both at 55%-53% split over Pasta’s career and this year. For comparison’s sake, Marchand’s numbers dip into the 40% ranger without Bergeron.

Pastrnak isn’t the deadliest shooter you’ll find, as his 14% or thereabouts shooting-percentage doesn’t have him anywhere near the top marksmen. He’s 11th in total shots, so he gets there through volume, averaging over three shots per game. And when you’re skating with Bergeron most of the time, you’ll be in the right end enough. Pastrnak should probably be shooting even more, but defers to his linemates.

That does leave this Bruins team in something of a conundrum. They clearly lack scoring beyond the top line, and that’s if David Backes is in the lineup as he can’t do much anymore. It’s clear that Marchand needs Bergeron, but would slotting Pastrnak with David Krejci on the second line give opponents more to think about? The Bruins can one-line-ending-the-world their way through the regular season, and that’ll probably see them easily gain the third playoff spot in the Atlantic, though they’re still tangled up with Montreal and Boston for that and the wild card spots.

But when the spring rolls around, can you beat Tampa or Toronto with just one line? The Leafs might not have a defense, but they can throw Matthews or Tavares and Bergeron and at least hope to break even, and then watch their greater depth run the Bruins over. That’s basically what happened against the Lightning last year. Would Pastrnak-Krejci at least be a different question to ask teams? The Bruins might have to think about it.

Considering the numbers he puts up, Pastrnak’s $6.6M hit is a borderline steal. Which is good, because the Bs are clearly going to need to bring in another winger or two in the summer if they want another run with Bergeron and Chara still around. At only 22, it’s a little frightening to think where Pastrnak could go from here. If the Bruins have to move on from this era to the next one soon, it’s clear whom they are going to do that around.

Game #42 Preview Suite