Game #51 Preview Suite
Notes: Lehner has given up four goals in his last four appearances…Barzal only has one goal since the last time these two met, when he had a brace…Cizikas has been the Eastern version of Marcus Kruger for years, always on a fourth-line but always tasked with taking the hardest assignments. Trotz hasn’t wavered from that…Their Toews has really juiced the third-pairing, and given them a puck-mover on all three pairings…Filppula has been extremely annoying to the Hawks in his entire career, and now that he’s under Trotz he’s Super Annoying…
Notes: After what was his first truly rough outing, it makes sense to get Delia an early start on the bye and break and give Ward the start. Not that you’re ever happy to see Ward in net, but this one makes sense…they’re giving you the hard-press on Caggiula in the top six, even though he was just fine on Sunday…the Saad-Kampf-Kruger line was used as a straight checking unit against Backstrom and Ovechkin and it held its own even if the possession numbers were a little ugly…curious to see if DeBrincat can be the main creator on a line, which is what he’ll be tasked with joining Strome and Kahun…
Game #51 Preview Suite
It’s time once again for our version of the Blackhawks hot-or-not:
The Dizzying Highs
Jonathan Toews: With a hat trick plus two assists yesterday, we’d be remiss if we DIDN’T put Toews in the Dizzying Highs. I can’t think of a performance more worthy of the name than a five-point game, and one that was against the current Stanley Cup champions no less, even if they were still drunk from the night before. Beyond just yesterday, though, Toews has been playing consistently well—obviously for the season as a whole but in particular the last week or so, other than the shit-fest at Madison Square Garden the other night. He had a point in each of the three games prior to that. He’s already surpassed his point total for last year and he’s tied his total for 2016-17. Yes, his possession numbers are a little questionable still (50.7 CF%, 1.9 CF% Rel), but shit, the guy had a hat trick and five total points yesterday.
Patrick Kane: Kane gets an honorable mention here this week because he too had five points against the Capitols yesterday and the little shit has been playing out of his mind. Again.
The Terrifying Lows
Carl Dahlstrom: OK, Dahlstrom is inexperienced and getting absolutely buried with his zone starts: 28.75% offensive zone starts as of today, per Natural Stat Trick. However, he’s also playing with one of the 2.5 competent defensemen the Hawks have right now, and he’s sucked out loud for a couple weeks, after what had been a promising start that now just screams adrenaline-and-good-luck. We can parse the stats any way we want and get a muddled answer: His GF% is 54, but they give up more scoring chances when he’s on the ice (47 SCF%). On top of that, the Hawks give up a shitload more high-danger chances than what they attempt when Dahlstrom is out there—his High-Danger Chances For percentage is a woeful 38.5%. But my immediate issue is not just numbers (although I am angry at those too), but it’s how doltish he’s played lately, i.e., against the Rangers last week, and the Knights a few days before that. He’s either standing around watching opponents score, or he’s in the wrong position, or he’s chasing helplessly, or he’s leaving his man open. I realize there are no good answers with this defense, but whatever hope there was around Dahlstrom is fading fast.
Duncan Keith: Keith gets an honorable mention here this week because his turnover to Chris Kreider in the Rangers game last week was so abominable, I’m still not over it.
The Creamy Middles
Collin Delia: Let it be known that I don’t like listing the same guy in the same part of this post two weeks in a row (and I’m now doing it twice in this one). But like or not Delia and the goaltending situation as a whole is an unavoidable point of emphasis so I don’t want to ignore it simply for format’s sake. Anyway, you know we’re fans of Delia around these parts, but yesterday he had a mix of highlight-reel saves and soft goals that should never have happened. Out of his last six starts, Delia has given up three or more goals in five of them. That’s troubling. However, his save percentage is still .923%, so you know a lot of this is the defense hanging him out to dry (see: Dahlstrom in the aforementioned Vegas game). In those six previous starts, the lowest number of shots he faced was 32, and the highest was 50. Good lord. So Delia is keeping them in games and basically has one arm tied behind his back thanks to the putrid blue line, yet he’s still undeniably coming down to earth after an insane start.
Brandon Saad: Saad gets an honorable mention here because his goal against the Caps yesterday was a thing of beauty, and he’s had three goals in as many games. He still fucks.
All stats via Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick
The Rockford IceHogs saw a losing streak swell to four games before knocking off the Chicago Wolves in Rosemont Saturday night. The piglets are mired in a pretty rough patch since the holidays.
Rockford is 2-8-1-1 since December 26. This stretch has resulted in the Hogs dropping to last place in the AHL’s Central Division with a .488 points percentage.
The fortunes of AHL teams can change quickly as rosters fluctuate. That said, the gap between the division’s playoff teams and the IceHogs is growing. Fourth-place Texas has a five-game points lead over the Hogs with three games in hand.
Last year’s club was in better position (22-16-5, .534 points percentage) than the 17-18-3-5 IceHogs are after 43 games this season. The key push started in February when the organization picked up veteran reinforcements.
This begs a pair of questions. Will the Blackhawks be able to bolster the AHL roster in the coming weeks? More importantly, will reinforcements make a difference?
Mega-Scary Stat
Two seasons ago, the IceHogs suffered through their worst finish in franchise history, finishing dead last in the Central Division and winning just 25 games. The offense, which also marked a franchise nadir, was last in the AHL at 2.30 goals per game.
Through 43 games in 2018-19, Rockford is scoring at a 2.26 goals per game clip. It should come as no surprise that the Hogs are still last in scoring among the 31 AHL clubs. Rockford is the only team in the AHL that has not eclipsed the 100-goal mark.
Ejdsell Returns
Viktor Ejdsell was back in action last week after missing almost a month to injury. The big Swede made his return January 11 in Texas. He didn’t get on the scoresheet that night. However, Ejdsell has posted points in each of his last five games.
Ejdsell scored the Hogs only goal Tuesday night. He sent a shot off the pads of Harri Sateri Friday to set up William Pelletier’s goal, then cleaned up a rebound of Lucas Carlsson’s attempt to get Rockford on the board in Saturday’s overtime win.
With Rockford hurting for offense, Ejdsell coming back is a positive. If he can get on a roll, maybe a few other players can find the scoring touch.
Roster Moves
Defenseman Neil Manning, who was on an AHL contract with the IceHogs, was released from his contract on Monday. Manning, who had appeared in three games with Rockford, was named to the ECHL’s Western Conference All-Star Team. By mutual agreement, Manning was released so that he could pursue work overseas. He quickly signed with the EC Kassel Huskies in Germany.
Matheson Iacopelli was recalled to Rockford on Thursday. It’s been a tough year for Iacopelli, who has been in an out of the lineup with the IceHogs. He has two goals and two assists in 26 games this season.
Following Friday’s game, Hogs coach Derek King revealed that F Tyler Sikura, last season’s team MVP and second-leading goal scorer, had suffered a broken thumb in practice. Rockford will miss his high compete level for however long he is out of action.
Recaps
Tuesday, January 15-San Antonio 2, Rockford 1
It was yet another one-goal loss for the IceHogs this season. This one was the third straight loss on the Texas road trip.
Rockford got the game’s first goal 14:08 of the opening period. William Pelletier brought the puck from behind the Rampage net and sent a pass out to Blake Hillman just inside the San Antonio blueline. Hillman swiftly sent the biscuit to Viktor Ejdsell at the right circle. The shot beat Rampage goalie Jared Coreau to the stick side and put the IceHogs up 1-0. It would remain that way into the first intermission.
The Rampage tied the game midway through the second period on a goal by Mitch Reinke. The shot got past Rockford goalie Anton Forsberg, who was fighting a lot of traffic in front of his crease.
The game remained even until late in the final frame. A Luke Johnson turnover was snatched up by San Antonio’s Trevor Smith. Smith sent the puck into the slot, where Bobby MacIntyre slapped it past Forsberg and into the back of the net. With 3:19 to play, the Rampage went up 2-1.
The Hogs pulled their goalie with 2:20 left but was unable to secure the equalizer.
Friday, January 18-Grand Rapids 3, Rockford 1
Rockford returned to the friendly confines of the BMO Harris Bank Center Friday, dropping its fourth-straight game.
The IceHogs got on the board late in the opening frame. Dennis Gilbert brought the puck into the Griffins zone, came around the net and hit Viktor Ejdsell at the right dot. Ejdsell stickhandled into a shooting position and sent an offering off the right pad of Grand Rapids goalie Harri Sateri. The rebound found the stick of William Pelletier, who buried it into the twine at 17:38 for a 1-0 Hogs lead.
Grand Rapids tied the game two minutes into the second after Wade Megan scored a clean faceoff win. The puck came out to Jake Chelios, who sent the puck high on Lankinen. The shot, which may or may not have glanced off of the stick of Nick Moutrey, fluttered into the Hogs net to knot the contest at a goal apiece.
Midway through the final frame, Megan put Grand Rapids up 2-1, taking a pass from Matt Puempel at the right dot and roofing the shot past Lankinen. That was enough to beat the Hogs, though Megan added an empty-netter to put a bow on this one.
Saturday, January 19-Rockford 3, Chicago 2 (OT)
The Wolves erased a two-goal Rockford advantage early in the third period. However, the Hogs persevered to claim the win in Gus Macker Time.
Neither team found the back of a net in the opening twenty. Rockford got the game’s first goal from the stick of Viktor Ejdsell, who followed up on a shot by Lucas Carlsson. Carlsson had gotten the scoring play started after gaining possession in his own zone. Working with Graham Knott, the two made their way to the Chicago net, where Oscar Dansk made the initial stop before Ejdsell took care of the rebound at 2:37.
A few minutes later, Andrew Campbell took a pass from Andreas Martinsen at the top of the left circle and sent a shot above Dansk’s glove. The IceHogs now had a 2-0 lead at the 6:51 mark of the middle frame.
That cushion was gone early in the third period following penalties by Dennis Gilbert and Luke Johnson. Dylan Coughlin scored on the resulting 5-on-3 at 2:32 of the third. While still up a skater, Erik Brannstrom tied the game at the 3:18 mark. The Wolves out shot Rockford 12-3 in the final period of regulation; the IceHogs failed to log a shot on goal until the final minutes.
Anton Forsberg kept the Wolves at bay for the remainder of the third period. In all, the Hogs goalie stopped 36 shots on the evening. Forsberg’s efforts were not in vain. Rockford broke the tie 1:29 into the extra session, when Knott knocked a loose puck in at the right post.
Well, that was refreshing. The Hawks finally showed up for a “big” game, if they still count as such, and played extremely well as they shitpumped the Capitals all day, save for a quick stretch in the third period where they let it get interesting. Let’s do the bullets:
– Jonathan Toews continued the Fuck You Tour today with a five point game that included a hat trick. It’s starting to feel more and more like he should just be doing this every game, even though I know it’s not that simple. But when he takes over a game, it’s something special to behold, really. His final possession numbers weren’t phenomenal with a 48.65 CF%, but that was likely brought down by the dominance Washington showed in the third period (which was largely score effects) and the fact that Toews was playing a hell of a lot in that period. Plus, the Hawks had a 4-0 advantage on goals at 5v5 with him on the ice. His numbers where it mattered most were damn good and that’s all I care about.
– To go along with that killer game from Toews was another monster performance by Patrick Kane, who matched Toews with a five point game of his own. He continued what has been one of his best seasons in the NHL and maybe the best year of his career in the process, and that brought me to a good but very sad realization – the Hawks’ blueline being shitty is wasting an all-time year from this duo. I’ll never take the glory years for granted, but given that these two are going off in this way, this really should have been another glory year. Damn.
– I’ve only watched two games of the Slater Koekkoek era and I’m already sick of it. I don’t hate the move for him at all, because dropping Jan Rutta and moving up the draft is nothing to complain about. Also, he does bring some speed that at least fits more of what Coach Cool Youth Pastor is trying to do. But even with that, the guy sucks ass. I haven’t seen him doing anything good yet and he was practically sitting on top of Collin Delia on the Capitals 5th goal. There was another breakdown in the defense along the way but it was still rough from him. Add in that he played over Henri Jokiharju, who inarguably needs to be in the lineup every game, and I’m tired of it already. Fucking sick of it. Get rid of it.
– Delia meanwhile had a game that reminded me a lot of Mitchell Trubisky, in a weird way. He made the big plays, performed well in the most important moments, but he still had some major screwups on the simple shit. The first two Washington goals were absolutely inexcusable, but then he continued to make the crazy saves that he had no business on. It was weird. But if he, like Trubisky, starts fixing that small shit, there’s definitely something there – more for Trubisky than Delia, but still (and no I am not doing well with Bears season being over.
vs 
Game Time: 11:30AM CST
TV/Radio: NBC, WGN-AM 720
What A Bunch of Clowns: Russian Machine, Japer’s Rink
Now that the calendar has turned, the usual heavy dose of brunch hockey games on national TV is set to begin, with this installment featuring the defending champs, and at present, the worst team in the NHL. How’s that for star power?
Only in this way is it a shame that Russia-US relations are headed to Cold War status soon, because Alex Ovechkin should be considered an imported treasure, if not a national one. But being a close friend of The Shirtless Rider in charge over there probably won’t help his cause in a lot of eyes. Either way, we’ve spent years talking about what a true phenomenon Ovechkin is and has been. He’s leading the league in goals again at 33. and it doesn’t feel like he’s going to stop doing that anytime soon. What’s peculiar about this year is how he’s going about it.
Ovechkin used to score his usual avalanche of goals by sheer volume of shots. Think Matthew Stafford. No player in history averaged the five shots per game that Ovechkin routinely put up. although he hasn’t done that in a couple years. And while he had a decent accuracy on them, the fact that he found a way to get a puck through more than anyone else from anywhere is the reason he was always atop the scoring charts.
That’s not so this year. Ovie is only averaging 3.96 shots per game, his second-lowest since 2012 when Adam Oates tried to turn him into a fucking checking winger. As far as rates go, Ovie is only getting 11.2 shots per 60 minutes total on net, a low since that Oates-era confusion. His 17.7 SH% are a career-high this year, which explains the 33 goals.
It’s even more pronounced at even-strength. Alex The Great is only getting 8.9 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, when he’s comfortably been over 10 per 60 for his entire career. Again, his 17.5 SH% at even-strength is a career-high, and by some distance. The best he had done before was last year’s 12.8%. He’s not really making it up on the power play either, averaging less shots there than he has in seven seasons and with less accuracy. This could be the third-straight season his power play goals tally declines.
Which would lead one to ask if Ovie is just finding better spots to get a higher percentage of shots to the twine, or he’s just getting luckier. It looks like the latter. Ovechkin is nearly doubling his expected individual goals for per 60, which is 0.83 and he’s actually potted 1.58. This is by far the highest difference in the last five years. Now to be clear, Ovechkin is always going to outshoot what the percentages say he “should” score, because his shot is just that heavy. But doubling it up is pushing it. It also doesn’t suggest he’s getting to any different areas or getting chances he didn’t before. His expected-goals rate is below what it was last year, so he might not even be getting the same chances as before, though he’s pretty much in line with the past few years on that.
All of which would lead you to believe that if you wanted to wager that the decline is coming for Ovie next year, it might be smart money. Hell, he’s only got three in his last 14 right now, so it might already be here. Going five percent over your career-high in shooting-percentage is a neat trick at 33, and one that’s hard to maintain. That doesn’t mean Ovie is going to be a detriment or anything close to it. But it might behoove the Caps to start planning on him being a 25-30 goal guy soon, because underneath the fireworks, that’s the way things are trending.
Game #50 Preview Suite
Japers Rink has been among the gold-standard in team blogs for over a decade. They lent us Greg this morning.
The Caps for the second straight year are kinda weird. They’re near the top of the Metro, so no problems there, but their metrics say they shouldn’t be. Braden Holtby has been good, but short of great. Is it just as simple as the top line is always going to outshoot the percentages and they get just enough saves to make that count? Or just weird?
We’ve been wondering the same thing! There’s been a bit of debate amongst Caps fans about how good our team is this year, and this is something I speculated a bit about this on our site’s podcast earlier this week. I tend to think that the Caps will outperform their expected goal metrics to some degree (Kevin Klein explained why this keeps happening earlier this year, and having the skill of the Capitals helps generally in this area)…but they were still due for some regression this year, because they were outperforming their metrics by an even more extreme degree. The fact that our power play has come crashing back down to earth and is now ranked 11th in the NHL isn’t helping matters much.
One positive note, as your question referenced, has been the goaltending for the Capitals this year. Braden Holtby has bounced back, and is returning closer to his career norms in Save % (.912 this year) and Goals Against Per Game (2.82 this year.) We’ve also been impressed with backup and human typo Pheonix Copley, who is close to Holtby in Save % and GAA.
Ultimately, I still think the Capitals are safely a playoff team, and we’re ultimately still talking about a team with a number of elite-level players, but things definitely aren’t perfect over here in D.C.
You wouldn’t say Evgeni Kuznetsov is having a bad year, as he’s still close to a point per game. But only eight goals after 27 last year in a more free-scoring environment. Just rotten luck on the shooting-percentage?
I wouldn’t say it’s just rotten shooting percentage luck…though he seems pretty likely to improve from a 1.54% (!!) shooting percentage at 5v5. Anecdotally, Kuznetsov has been making some strange decisions in the neutral zone, is turning the puck over pretty frequently in all zones, and just seems…off. One note is that he did suffer a concussion earlier this year, which he still maybe recovering from, even though he’s in the lineup. We’ve noticed this with Capitals players before, that sometimes it can take a couple of months after a concussion to start getting back in the swing of things.
The Caps find themselves in an interesting spot down the road. Both Backstrom and Holtby will be up for extensions in the summer. Both will be over 30. How careful do the Caps want to be with this or will they hand both significant raises from their current bargain rates of $6 million per year?
Backstrom first: Backstrom’s next contract is going to be a fascinating puzzle for GM Brian MacLellan to solve. Backstrom has consistently managed to hover around a point per game throughout his tenure, a pace he’s continuing this year. His value isn’t just offensive though, he’s continued to draw key defensive assignments, and former head coach Barry Trotz was always vouching for him to get Selke consideration. Yet, at the same time, Backstrom will be 32 when his next contract is discussed, which is a dangerous age to be giving away massive free agent contracts. Personally, I think they’ll have to get a deal done (maybe around 6-7 million a year?), and his legendary passing ability may help stave off a drastic decline in his late 30’s.
Holtby, to me, is a bit clearer of a case. The Capitals top prospect is goaltender Ilya Samsonov, and a lot of people envisioned him taking over the starting job once Holtby’s contract expires. Unfortunately, Samsonov has struggled a bit in Hershey, which has perhaps slowed the calls for him to immediately take over from Holtby. Here, I think the Capitals have the benefit of waiting. If Holtby plays consistently well this and next year and Samsonov continues struggling, they can absolutely work out an extension. However, if Samsonov looks ready and Holtby starts a bit of a decline, it could be time for a transition in net.
What might the Caps do around the deadline and what are you expecting from them in the spring?
I’m actually working on a piece now about this, so stay tuned for more details! Generally, at the deadline, I’d expect them to get a depth forward and maybe another depth defenseman. The problem is that the Caps have basically no cap space (around 400k, according to Capfriendly), which limits any deals.
The expectation here is that the high talented but inconsistent Andre Burakovsky seems likely to be traded which could free up around $3 million in cap space. He’s fallen out of favor with the Capitals brass and has been healthy scratched a few times this year, so he could use a change of scenery. There could be a fit by trading Burakovsky either for another player who could use a change of scenery, or maybe to a talent-starved team in exchange for a forward on an expiring deal.
Game #50 Preview Suite
We can only hope.
It was five years ago, so you would think the memory should be pretty yellowed by now. Yes, we’re biased when it comes to T.J. Oshie. He was the dude in St. Louis who made engine noises when he was on the ice. He was the asshole who Blues fans couldn’t wait to point out had scored more at North Dakota than Jonathan Toews, for reasons we can’t understand. Maybe it made St. Louis residents feel good in a way that only booing Cardinals who happen to be black does. Oshie also has that big dumb face.
But by far what came to annoy us most about Oshie was the glow and esteem he got out of a shootout performance in the Olympics in 2014. While the actual performance may have been fun at the time, let’s review: It didn’t come in a game, but a gimmick. Second, it came in a gimmick after a game that didn’t matter. It was the preliminary round. It basically got the US nowhere. Third, it was a shootout win over a Russian team that flat out sucked. The US should have ripped that team apart.
Really, check out this defense: Nikita Nikitin, Slava Voynov, Fedor Tyutin, Alex Emelin, Andrei Markov, and a couple of KHL wanderers. That’s a defense that’s asking for its doors to be blown off. The US could only manage a couple of power play goals. We should have known it was going to be a balls-up then.
And it didn’t help the US win a medal. They were utterly smothered by Canada in the semis, perhaps the biggest gap between teams in a game that ended up 1-0 in history. It could have been 120 minutes long, and the dunderheaded roster USA Hockey put together led by the simply bewildered Dan Bylsma–who attempted to play a dump and chase game against one of the best defenses ever assembled–would have never scored. The US didn’t bother to care in the Bronze Medal game.
And Oshie has been coasting off that ever since. It seems to always come up, and don’t be shocked if it gets mentioned on NBC again today whenever he is on screen. It was a quirk. An anomaly. A fissure in time. Nothing more. So leave us alone.
Game #50 Preview Suite
