Everything Else

Game #70 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Douchebag Du Jour: Morgan Rielly, The Leafs, And The NHL Must Show Their Work

By Sam Fels 1619 0

Boy, controversy seems to follow Kyle Dubas around.

Nothing will come of Morgan Rielly’s escape of being labeled a homophobe officially, though some will never forget. It would have been hard to miss the story, but if you did, on Monday night, on-ice mics caught Rielly saying something that sure sounded like “faggot” at an official. The NHL launched an investigation, and yesterday it cleared Rielly after talking to him and the ref, Brad Meier. Still, Rielly’s defense of, “I’m 100% confident I did not use that word” makes it sound like he as an observer rather than the center of this story. It doesn’t instill 100% confidence in anyone else who has anything of a skeptical eye. Whatever, here we are.

What’s frustrating, or one of the frustrating aspects, is that the NHL, Rielly, Meier, or anyone hasn’t been forced or compelled to tell us what he did say. When seeing and hearing the footage, it’s hard to conclude he said anything else. And the fact that no one has sought to clarify what it was that did escape his lips, it raises a lot of doubt. Because this being the NHL, and we know their favorite tactic when dealing with anything controversial is to imitate an ostrich. And just wait until Don Cherry gets his grubby paws on this on Saturday. At least when Andrew Shaw went through this for the second time, he or someone was allowed to show what he was actually saying and what amateur lip-reading would have mistaken for that slur. There’s been no such impetus from the Leafs.

Brad Meier saying nothing was directed at him certainly is encouraging, but if Rielly were using that word simply as an expletive or exclamation, that’s no better. But we’ll never get there, so let’s deal with what we can.

What the NHL can do is empower its refs to eject and report any player they hear using that word or anything like it. It is purely farcical to believe that slur has only made an appearance on NHL ice on Monday and caught by a mic. This is a league populated by barely 7th-grade educated peons who have grown up and spent a great majority of their lives in one of the most closed and poisonous cultures we know. Surely something is getting said in scrums, and yet NHL refs have never ejected or penalized anyone for that kind of use. At least that we know of.

What’s likely here is that Meier doesn’t really want to start a furor, hears that word enough, and much like the rest of hockey culture thinks it’s ok to just muscle through it. Or that it’s not a big deal. Until someone proves what Rielly said or meant, there’s going to be a heavy level of doubt.

While it does share characteristics of victim-blaming, the NHL could use the opportunity to empower its refs to start penalizing and ejecting any type of inappropriate and offensive language on the ice. That doesn’t mean swear words obviously, but racist and homophobic slurs for sure. And they’re there. We know they are.

If nothing else, on the lowest level, the NHL might want to look at just how much abuse it wants its officials to deal with every game. Think about how many unsportsmanlike conducts springing from yelling at a ref calls you’ve seen this year. One? Two? Compare that with flags in the NFL, technicals in the NBA, or ejections in MLB (ok, that last one is probably too much, given that most MLB umps are babies). NHL refs hear it from every angle while reffing by far the fastest game there is. Perhaps allowing officials to throw a few more minors at coaches and players who get particularly yappy, and you may indirectly shrink the area where much more ugly stuff tends to slither out.

Game #70 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

 

 

Everything Else

Game #70 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 1260 0

Notes: Perlini’s insertion onto Strome’s and Cat’s line has really lifted their metrics. And they’re also smart enough sometimes to just throw a fly pattern with his speed. D-men get awfully puckered with a bouncing puck at their feet and him streaking at or outside them. He almost had four goals that way on Monday…Likewise Sikura with Toews and Saad, though Toews and Saad just kind of do that. They’ll have their hands full tonight though…If Forsling and Seabrook start one shift in their own zone, Colliton should have his glasses broken in front of him…The fourth line has been really good since Kampf’s return. It’s almost as if he’s good?

Notes: Muzzin’s use as a strictly dungeon-master doesn’t really jibe with what he did in LA with Doughty, but then again they don’t have anyone else. It hasn’t been smooth, and they need Gardiner back…Marleau has one goal in his last 12, and playing on a checking line wouldn’t seem to suit him at this stage of his career…Nylander’s SH% has dropped to 6% even though everything else is in line. We’re sure the ever patient Toronto fans and media are giving him every break though after signing that huge deal after a holdout…You can get at this defense. The Leafs have had a sub-45% share in five of their last six games…If you’re looking for Kasperi Kapanen, you won’t find him as he’s out with a concussion.

 

Game #70 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 12th

By Sam Fels 1078 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Jets – 7pm

This is your conference final preview, as far as I’m concerned. Both can open up some space on their pursuers, as the Sharks are one point up on the Flames and the Jets are one up with two games in hand on the Preds. What are the odds they both do? Pretty good because that’s how these things work! Yeah, the Jets have been defensively wonky and getting by because Blake Wheeler is awesome and their depth. But Laine is waking up, and Hellebuyck is very slowly starting to, and they’re the class. The Sharks have won five in a row without Karlsson, and Jones has given up six goals in his last four starts. They really are better than everyone else in the conference, and this is just about the time they show it. Second of a back-to-back might have them a little charred, but you’ll be seeing this again.

Second Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

If you’re chasing a playoff spot, you don’t want to get shutout as the Jackets did last night. And you don’t want to turn around and face the Bruins who didn’t play and have lost like three games in regulation this decade or something stupid. No, I don’t think the Bruins are that good, but they’re good enough to make life harder on the Jackets, whose margin for error is getting smaller and smaller (even the Flyera are appearing in the rearview). They’re the biggest story in the league, really. You can’t help but watch.

Other Games

Stars vs. Sabres – 6pm

Capitals vs. Penguins – 6pm

Red Wings vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Coyotes vs. Blues – 7pm

Devils vs. Flames – 8pm

Predators vs. Ducks – 9:00

Everything Else

The Colliton Effect Revisited

By Sam Fels 1830 0

I wouldn’t tell you I know what the rest of this season is worth or going to be. The one thing I can say for sure is that it’s a study, not a referendum, of Jeremy Colliton. Unless the Hawks go 0-12-1 and Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews attempt to give him a Shatter Machine in his office, he’s going to be the coach going forward. So what we want to see is that his methods and tactics are having an effect, and the team and players are getting better. There needs to be a base camp for next year, let’s say.

So let’s revisit where the Hawks are under Colliton from various points. We did this just about a month ago, and what we found was that though the Hawks record was much improved, the process was still rotten. Is the process getting any better? Um…maybe?

Ok, so we’ll try and do this from three points on the calendar. The first is since Colliton took over on November 8th:

Corsi-percentage: 48.3 (23rd)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 46.0 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 42.8 (Dead Ass Last)

The last time we tried this, we looked from December 17th, which is when the Hawks started their first run of 12-6-4 to get back into it all. So from December 17th, after Colliton had been on the job for a month, until now:

Corsi Percentage: 47.6 (26th)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 45.0 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 41.6 (Dead Ass Last)

Not great, Bob! Ok, so today, let’s also add just the last month:

Corsi Percentage: 50.9 (13th)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 46.5 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 45.0 (27th)

We’re not last! We’re not last!

If you want to believe, and you shouldn’t be blamed if you do because it’s better, healthier, and happier to think your coach knows what he’s doing, then the last month has seen an uptick in the Hawks percentages, even if they’re not on the positive side of the ledger in the types of chances they get. They are in overall attempts, which is at least something of a foothold.

Now clearly, this isn’t very scientific, and when you’re looking at a snippet of the schedule, the quality of that snippet plays a major role. In that span of the last month, the only “real” teams the Hawks have played are the Bruins, Sharks, the Jackets debatably, maybe the Avs, maybe the Stars. They were clocked by the Bruins and Sharks, while played the Avs and Stars basically even. And really, even with the Stars and Avs is probably where they “should” be, and may yet end up. Still, at this point we’ll take any uptick we can find, and hope that it continues through the last three weeks of the season here.

That said, after the Leafs tomorrow night, the rest of the Hawks schedule is filled with teams on the fringes of the playoff race, where they probably “should” be, aside from one date with the Sharks again. That is until the season closes with three games against actually good teams, and you can easily see a scenario where they spend the next two weeks playing themselves right onto the cusp of the last spot, and then get flambeed by the Jets, Blues, and Preds.

But that’s neither here nor there. Another factor we can look at with Colliton, seeing as how he’ll be given more and more young players as we go forward, is to see improvement from anyone. The obvious candidate is Erik Gustafsson, who is 9th in scoring among d-men which is something we’re just never going to get used to. Unlike Q, you could argue that Colliton has simply forgiven Gus for his various and numerous defensive drownings, and taken the points and fireworks. I’ll let you have it if you want.

Brendan Perlini is going to have to have more than a good week before we chalk that up as a success story. Dylan Strome is a name some would bring up, but that could be a result of just getting to play with better talent than he ever did in Arizona (there is no Alex DeBrincat in Glendale). Henri Jokiharju is in Rockford. Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling have proven to be very much Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling, and will go down as a “miss.” Dominik Kahun and Drake Caggiula haven’t proven to be much more than “guys.” They get an incomplete at best.

So the jury is anything but in no matter the category. This is a big three weeks for the Hawks, and it’s a bigger three weeks for their coach. He’s clearly still got some veterans to convince, and he can do that by watching the Hawks improve through this last stretch when the games are most tense. To be fair to him, the Hawks had two big games at the end of last month, and they weren’t….horrible. But they lost. If they streak their way into another chance at games like that somewhere along here, they’re going to have to be better.

Otherwise, he and the Hawks will basically be starting all back over in September.

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile – Diamonds And Perls

By Sam Fels 1666 0

Still doing it. Let’s get through it.

The Dizzying Highs

Brendan Perlini – Four goals in three games will get you here. Sure, his charge and stretch for a hat trick last night with three seconds left was downright comedic, but hat tricks are special and he’s hardly the first or last (and how many tantrums have we seen Christiano Ronaldo throw when a player doesn’t serve him up his hat trick? It’ll look the same when he goes to prison). Bring Perlini up to 11 for the year, which seems a decent total for what should be a third-liner. Which is what he almost certainly is going forward on a team that’s intent on doing something that matters. The one game he didn’t score his coach called his best, and a 62% share backs that up.

Is he more? These last 13 games might say more than you’d think. Of course we’ve seen plenty of players pile the goals in when the games stopped mattering, and then the next season they returned to a faceless part of the rabble. We’ve also seen players like Patrick Sharp drive hard in the season’s last throes to achieve some benchmark–with Sharp it was 20 goals in 2007–and then use that as a platform to become A THING. Perlini is only 22, which is easy to forget. He’s getting a chance to play with real talent in Top Cat and Strome, and in their few games together he’s lifted their peripherals to heights they weren’t getting to with Dominik Kahun.

I don’t know if Perlini will ever be a real piece. He might be Jack Skille with assignments (Skille never really got a look on a top six, nor did he deserve to) What I do know is he has the type of speed that the Hawks need more of, and put him in position he does seem to have a sense on how to get the puck in the net. There are worse uses for these last stretch of games than to audition Perlini.

The Terrifying Lows

Draft Position – There’s not really much else to put here when you’ve won all three games this week, and this matters to a lot of people. The way things are going, the Hawks could draft anywhere from 7th-12th, and maybe even lower. The schedule remains pretty damn soft until the last week, so who knows how silly this will get? Are you likely to get an immediate difference-maker drafting 9th? You are not. Can you package the 9th pick with say, Jokiharju or Beaudin or Boqvist to get you one? Yes, yes you can. Which is what the Hawks should be thinking about. But in reality, losing every game from here on out and drafting 4th would be better. long-term. But they’re not going to do that, so we need to deal with what is.

The Creamy Middles

Jonathan Toews – It’s hard to believe that Captain Marvel could easily reach career-highs in goals and points this year (though it’s important to note that in the season-in-a-can of 2013 Toews played at a 40-43-83 pace). Don’t fool yourself, it’s come at a sacrifice of some of his all-around game. But the game now is about offense, and if he had a better blue line behind him you wouldn’t mind as much. Another four points this week, and though things are reversed now where teams are throwing their best at Kane and Toews can clean up against lesser now, you still have to do that. The way we talk about him makes him out to be 35 or 42 years old. He’s only 30. There’s still some planning to be done around him.

Everything Else

Game #69 – Coyotes 1, Hawks 7 – A Game Where People Throw Ducks at Balloons and Nothing is as it Seems

By Rose Rankin 2406 0

The 69th game, a DLR, a hat trick by Brendan Perlini…are you not entertained?! Nothing makes any sense but it certainly was fun. Hell, the Hawks are at .500, if you can believe that. And this weird on-again-off-again playoff race is, well, on again. To the bullets!

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

– The Coyotes are ostensibly the better team out of these two. Not by a huge margin, if you go by their records, but nonetheless that’s what the numbers say. But that didn’t happen tonight. Even after they went down a goal early, the Hawks were the better team. Brendan Perlini tied it shortly after old fan favorite Weiner Anxiety scored, and they never looked back after that. Brandon Saad had an effortless-looking tap in from a beautiful backhand pass from Toews (which is not actually anything close to effortless but he made it look that easy). The give-and-go passing that resulted in Kane’s goal in the second was textbook, and from the third line no less. Perlini nearly had a hat trick about 15 times, an then with literally three seconds left he finally made it happen. Chris fucking Kunitz scored, I mean really, what the fuck was going on with the Coyotes?

– Part of that answer is that Darcy Kuemper sucked out loud. It was probably just an off night, maybe the Hawks got lucky, I don’t know. I should credit their skill, I know, but I’m jaded and just think they rattled him early and it allowed the Hawks to jump out to the lead, which they amazingly didn’t surrender.

– And that really is the story here. This makes two games in a row with a downright solid defensive effort by one of the the worst blue lines in the league (will I have to stop calling them that?). The Hawks only gave up 25 shots, and that follows Saturday’s 27 shots given up…it’s nearly competent. In the third the Coyotes dominated possession but otherwise it was the Hawks (63 CF% in the first, 70 CF% in the second), and only two defensemen—Gustav Forsling and Nachos, no surprise—were underwater in possession all night. For the record Foreskin had a 46 CF% and Seabrook a 48; the rest were over 60.

— The corollary to that is how bad the Coyotes defense was…and they were bad. Even Hjalmarsson and OEL had a 38 and 31 CF%, respectively. I don’t have a real explanation for it, just like I can’t explain why Kuemper shat the bed. This sounds like a perfect time for them to bounce back strong tomorrow and kick the shit out of the Blues because why not.

— Patrick Kane isn’t a third liner, this goes without saying. But at this point who gives a shit? If CCYP needs to spread out the scoring and it results in six goals, so be it. I think it was actually a nice gesture to put Dylan Sikura on the top line with Toews and Saad because jesus that guy just needs to score already (who hasn’t heard that before amirite?), and Kane can produce anywhere and with any jamokes. Again, it makes no sense to screw with the lineup this way but I can’t argue with the results.

— Good for Brendan Perlini! Fuck the Coyotes and this guy’s been on a hot streak so if anyone deserved a hat trick, it’s him.

— Also good to note is that Crawford had another solid game. Yes the defense in front of him was on tonight, which of course shouldn’t be such a notable thing, but either way he was well positioned most of the night and looked solid. He ended with a .960 SV%, which they’ll certainly need if they’re going to do anything with this supposed playoff push.

And now, without further ado, your DLR…

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 11th

By Sam Fels 997 0

First Screen Viewing

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

It’s not that these two have much to play for. The Bolts could have quit somewhere around Valentine’s Day, gone to the beach, called up the entire AHL team, and brought everyone back to round into shape in April and still be top of the league. The Leafs are locked into a first-round date with the Bruins yet again (and you can be sure if they get past them this time there will be another “THEY SLAYED THE DRAGON” call), and the only thing left to decide who has home ice. If that’s a big deal, which it probably isn’t. Still, when two of the top five get together, you have to imagine they’ll be up for it. This might be a good time for Mike Babcock to see if he has it in him to just see if his team can outrun the Lightning. They aren’t going to be able to defend them. There are no statement games, but neither will take it off either.

Second Screen Viewing

Hurricanes vs. Avalanche – 8pm

Our favorite sons don’t have anything sewn up yet, though clocking the Predators on the road sure helped. They’re in the first wild card spot, which is the bare minimum as being the last one in just means getting walloped by the Lightning and that’s no prize at all. They’re sandwiched between the Isles and Pens, so there’s work to be done. The Avs have more work to do, two points out and the Yotes to leapfrog. Two teams that don’t slow it down at altitude.

Other Games

Blue Jackets vs. Islanders – 6pm

Senators vs. Flyers – 6pm

Sharks vs. Wild – 7pm

Rangers vs. Oilers – 8pm

Everything Else

Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Preview/Subway Platform Singalong: If You’re Gonna Insist

By Sam Fels 1616 0

vs.

RECORDS: Coyotes 34-29-5   Hawks 29-30-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THEY CALL THEM THE DESERT DOGS: Five For Howling

The Hawks are going to tell you they’re not done yet. They are, but we’ll excuse them if it makes doing their jobs easier if they believe it’s for something. So with the Yotes on the schedule twice, the Avs on the schedule twice, and the Canucks on their once in the next two weeks, the Hawks can at least make things passably interesting by winning all of those games, as well as finding a way to steal two points out of either Montreal or Toronto. Then we’ll just where they are, but that’s that kind of run it’s going to take. And no overtime bullshit, in the words of Cuervo Jones.

It starts tonight with the second visit of the Arizona Coyotes, who are sitting right on the shoulder of the Minnesota Wild in the last playoff spot, one point with one game in hand. If results go their way tonight they will wake up in the morning in the playoffs. It’s certainly not what you were expecting.

So how did they get here, with this beautiful house and beautiful wife? The headline is Darcy Kuemper, who is the latest goalie to find himself in the desert. Since the turn of the calendar he’s been unconscious, with a .925 SV% and having won nine of his last 10 starts. When you’re getting that goaltending, you don’t have to do too much else. Which is good, because the Coyotes don’t really.

They’re a middling possession team, and still have been since Kuemper went supernova. Even in the last month their in the bottom half of the league in Corsi and scoring chances and shooting-percentage. It’s Kuemper pulling an Atlas act for the most part. What they do have is just enough pieces to get just enough goals and just enough speed to make things uncomfortable for teams, especially ones as slow as the Hawks are. There’s Keller on the first line, Crouse and Archibald on the second, Galchenyuk on the third, and Vinnie Bag O’ Donuts on the 4th. All have 10 goals or more, along with Brad Richardson‘s 16, and though none are stars (there’s still hope for Keller) there’s competence everywhere. No black holes, as it were.

The only true star is on the back end in Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has combined wonderfully with Niklas Hjalmarsson. They take the hardest shifts in terms of place and opponent, and they still turn the ice over. It’s infuriating. Alex Goligoski has apparently gotten over just a rotten start to his Yotes career the past two years, with the help of possible-stalwart Jakob Chychrun and his missing vowels. Having Jason Demers on your third-pairing is a real treat, and this is the understated strength of the team. They’re not the Hurricanes or anything, but they’re a hell of a way ahead of the Hawks in that category.

For the Hawks, they’ll basically aim to keep things as they’ve been. Corey Crawford will get a chance to build on what was his easiest start of the year, as will the Hawks on that defensive effort. The only other change you might see is Slater Koekkoek in for either Dahlstrom or Forsling, but even that isn’t all that likely.

As strange as it may sound, the Yotes are a tougher match up for the Hawks than the Stars. Whereas Dallas has really nothing below the top two lines, the Coyotes at least have more speed than that. Galchenyuk, Richardson, Hinostroza, Fischer are all lurking in the bottom six, and the thought of Michael Grabner bearing down on Seabrook’s side at any point is one that will start to bend the dimensions in your mind. While they’re not lethal, they have potential, and with the way Kuemper is going they don’t need a lot. Then again, the Yotes are in St. Louis tomorrow night and may save Kuemper for that, and the Hawks could benefit from getting a look at a backup (Calvin Pickard) for the second straight game. The Blues one is clearly the harder one. We’ll see later on.

If they’re going to insist on doing something silly, then it started on Thursday. It’s going to be near impossible, but why should anything else make sense this season?

 

Game #69 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Spotlight: The Return Of Mjolnir

By Sam Fels 1501 0

This won’t make for easy reading for Hawks fans. We aren’t here to tell you what you want to hear.

We’ve made the case all season that if there were a “Rod Langway” Award, that is if the best defensive defenseman were given an award along with or in place of the Norris–where the d-man who just accumulates the most points wins–, then Niklas Hjalmarsson would probably collect it. In a season where the Hawks have struggled so completely defensively, that can be painful to admit.

Let’s go over the numbers again. Hammer starts the 5th-highest percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone among blue-liners in the league. But whereas most of those d-men are merely trying to build a ditch and just let not disaster strike, Hjalmarsson and his partner Oliver Ekman-Larsson have been able to push the play the other way as well as anyone even though they have the farthest to go. Even with the dungeon shifts, Hjalmarsson has the ninth-best relative xGF% in relation to his team in the league. When it comes to just goals-against, Hammer has the best mark relative to his team in the league. Even though he starts in his own zone as much as anyone, he’s hardly giving up any chances. He’s the ultimate tease.

The temptation is to toss the responsibility onto OEL, as he is one of the better puck-movers in the league. And some of OEL’s numbers do improve away from Hammer’s while the latter’s sink. They collect a 51.3% Corsi-share together, where OEL is at 52.4% without Hammer and 50.4% vice versa. However, it’s the opposite when it comes to actual shots, further showcasing how Hjalmarsson limits chances. OEL’s scoring chance-percentage is actually worse away from Hjalmarsson, and Hjalmarsson’s high-danger chance share is a few points higher away from OEL than it is when they’re together. Hammer is helping OEL just as much as the other way around, which is certainly the big reason the Coyotes made this trade in the first place.

That shouldn’t be an indictment on Connor Murphy, though some will take it as such. Hammer looked as off the pace as anyone in 2017 while the Hawks were getting aerated by the Predators. The thought was after three long playoff runs, the miles on the odometer had taken a toll that was just not going to be undone. Perhaps Duncan Keith‘s wear was having a greater effect on Hammer than could be realized, which has been borne out in subsequent seasons.

It was thought that Hjalmarsson’s style of being more stationary, more physical and taking literally thousands of flung rubber to his body would see him decompose pretty quickly. And it still might. It was thought Connor Murphy could fill the role with greater mobility, and he still might. The signs on the latter are encouraging, as Murphy has had to make do with Carl Dahlstrom and Slater Koekkoek and various other rodeo clowns. But that’s still a very hard sell to a lot of watchers.

As for now, it’s probably just best to marvel at the recovery Hjalmarsson has made and the uniqueness of what he’s accomplishing this season. It’s better to trade a player too early than too late, which is the decision Stan Bowman made. But sometimes when you do that, the payoff doesn’t come for a little longer than you guessed.

 

 

Game #69 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built