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If every sport wishes to be more like the NFL, or at least come anywhere near the stratosphere of their profits, then the NHL got at least one thing right. The winner of its most prestigious, individual college award tends to go on to do dick in the NHL, much like the NFL.

Adam Gaudette won the Hobey Baker last year, NCAA hockey’s answer to the Heisman. Hawks will nod in the knowledge that Dylan Sikura‘s running buddy from Northeastern has looked useful, full of hustle, but can’t seem to score all that much. Gaudette has 12 points in 45 games, which is slightly behind the past of Sikura’s seven points in 25. Though Gaudette has actually found the net, so there’s that.

Hawks fans will remember former Hobey winner Drew LeBlahhhhhh’s thrashing attempts to play NHL hockey, and that’s generally been the trend of winners of the award. Of the past 10 winners, only Johnny Gaudreau and Jack Eichel have gone on to star in the league. And the key is that both won it as underclassmen. Eichel was a freshman and Gadreau a sophomore, and both quickly bounced to the pros. If you show up and immediately dominate the NCAA, you’re probably a thing. If you have to wait until you’re older than everyone, well…it’s kind of like punk rock, we guess.

Beyond that, Will Butcher and Jimmy Vesey have gone on to be at least contributors to an NHL team, if nothing resembling stars. Hell, if you go through the past 20 years, you’d only add Ryan Miller and Chris Drury to the list that Gaudreau and Eichel reside, and maybe Matt Carle to the other one. It’s not something you want to hang around college for all that badly. Because if you’re hanging around college that long, chances are you’re not going to do much after. Actually, that’s true with all of college, isn’t it? Remember, Otto nearly got tenure at Brown.

It hasn’t been that different than the football award. The last winner to truly dominate in the NFL is Cam Newton, and the debates over him aren’t finished yet (for legitimate and non-legitimate reasons). Baker Mayfield looks like he might have a chance to be something, but Johnny Manziel is a coked-up punchline, Marcus Mariotta just got replaced Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston should be thrown in a hole with no bottom. Derrick Henry at least looks serviceable, Sam Bradford is close to the same joke that Manziel is, and let’s not get into Tim Tebow. Strange how these things go.

To be fair to hockey, rarely is anyone drafted because of their award, as generally they’ve already been. However, Vesey, Butcher, LeBlahhhhh were signed after winning, and well, you get what you pay for.

As for Gaudette, he isn’t needed to be that much. With Pettersson and Bo Horvat taking the top two center spots, he can be something of an annoyance as a third center while hopefully providing more scoring than a normal checking center would.

It’s the checking part that Gaudette is going to have to work on. At the moment, Gaudette has the worst xGA/60 on the Canucks, and the worst xGF%. And that’s with starting two-thirds of his shifts in the offensive zone, so he’s got some work to do before he establishes himself as a piece they have to have going forward. To be fair to him, he’s been dragging around Antoine Roussel and especially Jake Virtanen most of the year. Roussel has use. Virtanen does not.

Anyway, beware the Ides Of Hobey…

 

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Every so often when the Hawks and Canucks meet, we’re lucky enough to get to talk to The Hockey Dipshit (@HockeyDipshit). Today is one of those days. 

The Canucks playoff chase seems to have died out, such as it was. Sitting in fifth for the lottery. This was always the better outcome, no?
Oh, absolutely. Next year is when they should start maaaybe thinking playoffs. This year was a combination of Pettersson being unreal and the West being a big pile of burning, stinky trash. People are going to paint this season as a big step forward for the team, and in certain ways, it was. But they’re still spinning their wheels with what seems like dozens of faceless replacement-level players. I’m just glad I don’t have to see Markus Granlund get completely caved in by the Flames or the Sharks. And hey, [In extremely exhausted tone of voice], maybe they’ll get lucky in the lottery this year.
 
Are the last couple weeks dependent on Quinn Hughes and Will Lockwood signing up and coming over?
Hughes is up and if I had to guess, he’ll make his debut later this week against Calgary. He’s been battling a foot injury, and as much as I’d love to see him play, I also don’t want to see him hurt himself in a completely meaningless game. I can’t see Lockwood signing before the season is up, and even if he did, I doubt he’d get any playing time. Which is too bad, because it would have been nice to see what he could do with, let’s see here… Tim Schaller? Ah… never mind.
 
Elias Pettersson, the one bright spot, has stalled out a bit over the past few weeks. Is that anything more than playing so many games and being the main and perhaps only weapon?
I think it’s a combination of it being a long season and other teams keying in on him more. He’ll still do at least two totally bonkers things a game regardless of whether or not he actually hits the scoresheet, though. He recently said he had to try to be more selfish on the ice, and then proceeded to rip home maybe his most ridiculous shot of the year against the Devils… so hopefully his selfish streak continues!
 
We asked this of Petbugs last time, but with Pettersson and Hughes and maybe Demko and one or two others and a ton of cap space, how are they going to fuck this up?
I am 100% sure the Canucks are going to sign Tyler Myers to a massive, franchise-crippling deal. Possibly Wayne Simmonds as well. And they’ll be picking 7th overall. Looking forward to it!

 

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First of all, Thatcher is a dumb name. And you should get used to it because all Canadian parents have done for the past 15-20 years is find dumber and dumber names for their children. Watch especially what comes out of the Western Hockey League and soon the NHL will be filled with guys who you’re going to want to punch simply by hearing what they’re called. There once was a “Motorboat Jones” in minor-league baseball. You’ll long for that when you’re hearing about Ryker and Cage (we assume the former doesn’t know how to sit in a chair either).

Anyway, Thatcher Demko is NEXT in Vancouver, and they’ve been waiting for him for a bit after he starred at Boston College. Except no one cannibalizes their goalies quite like Vancouver. Roberto Luongo couldn’t wait to get out of there, and came to hate his contract that kept him longer than he wanted to be. Then Cory Schneider went. They apparently kept Eddie Lack’s soul when he moved along to Carolina.

But it’s not just the cycling through, it’s what’s pinned on them. Either because of all the rain, or their isolation, or just their general oeuvre, no one likes to stab themselves where everyone can see more than the Canucks Army. And that almost always comes through the goalie. That’s after they spend years telling you how this is going to be the one to save them, only to turn on them after their first playoff loss.

So welcome to it, Thatcher. An entire province’s self-worth will ride on you one day. And don’t worry, they won’t let you forget it.

 

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Notes: Not only did the Canucks play last night, and not only are they bad, but they’re beat up. Ben Hutton, Brandon Sutter, Antoine Roussel, and Chris Tanev are done for the season, and Ryan Spooner is pretty close to that. This wasn’t a team that was screaming with depth before, so you can see why their half-assed playoff chase is falling by the wayside…Pettersson has cooled off a bit, with “only” 15 points in the last 21 games, but he wasn’t going to shoot over 20% forever…His linemate Boeser is under no such streaks though, as he has points in his last six and has been a problem for the Hawks in the past…Virtanen has two goals in 2019, so that’s working out well…Remember kids, if Luke Schenn is on your blue line, then it probably sucks…

Notes: Wouldn’t expect any changes here. Koekkoek came in for Dahlstrom on Saturday and the Hawks gave up 48 shots to a mediocre team, so he probably gets back in to try and help Murphy. Either for Forsling or Koekkoek, it doesn’t matter…Perlini was named second star of the week by the NHL, and why wouldn’t he be? Don’t buy in yet, he still smacks of a third line weapon, but at least he’s being used on the PK where he has a chance to do some real damage too. They need all the speed they can get on that unit…If Colliton had any balls they’d call up Jokiharju has have him replace Seabrook, but we won’t hop on one foot waiting for that to happen…

 

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Tonight was a goalie win and this is why I love Corey Crawford. There were some other bright spots but the Hawks yet again gave up a ridiculous number of shots and Crow pulled not just his usual headstand in Montreal but a season-high and even a career-high in saves. Let’s get to the bullets!

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– Crawford definitely recovered from his illness the other day, and he’s the reason the Hawks won this game. He stopped 48 shots tonight, and his saves ranged from the flashy highlight reel ones to workaday solid positioning. His rebound control was excellent. And while the Hawks defense was relatively decent through two periods and the start of the third (including a key penalty kill), by the second half of the third they crumbled and basically tried to do a performance art interpretation of their Wednesday night debacle. Even before that, Crawford repeatedly kept them in the game when they were scoreless or then clinging to a one-goal lead. Overall the number of shots he faced was absurd and a return to the bad old days like what  we saw the other night, after a few games of the Hawks giving up under 30 SOG which apparently was a lucky fluke. After the injuries and all the bullshit (and literal shits), Crawford is still god.

– The lines got shuffled at the end, but for the majority of the game the top line of Saad-Toews-Sikura was dominant. Together these three had a 65 CF%, and between them nine shots. Sikura continued to not score…and it’s becoming laughable and sad at the same time. He was excellent tonight overall, with four shots including one goalpost that missed by maybe a couple millimeters, and a give-and-go with Perlini at the end of the third where Perlini was trying SO HARD to get him the puck and passed it into Sikura’s skates instead of putting it on his stick. The kid had a 58 CF% on the night and was all over the ice. Either he’ll score 10 goals in one game, or he will never score one ever in his life (with the Hawks at least).

– Also impressive from the top line was Brandon Saad. Right at the start he had some nice takeaways and also straight-up burned Shea Weber, which is always enjoyable. He wasn’t as noticeable offensively after the first period but he was fast and smart with the puck all night. Jonathan Toews, on the other hand, must have run over the ref’s dog or banged his daughter or something because he got called for two bullshit penalties. Toews was fine for the most part but definitely not happy with the officiating. It was the second silly call that led to the penalty kill right at the start of the third, which luckily they got through, and then Perlini scored and they got some breathing room.

– On that note, Perlini scored again, so thumbs up to him hitting a hot streak at exactly the right time. And in the most festive aspect of the game on this St. Patrick’s Day weekend, our Large Irish Son scored the first goal! Connor Murphy played really well the entire night so it’s fitting that he got the go-ahead goal. Now, he and Slater Koekkoek didn’t exactly light up the possession numbers (a wretched 33 CF% for the pair and Murphy individually was no better). But in yet another case of the eye test and the numbers not matching up, Murphy’s positioning around the net was great and he had multiple clears that at least helped Crawford, which is more than can be said for some of the other jamokes. The possession leader on the defense tonight was Nachos with a whopping 45 CF%, so don’t let Murphy’s numbers fool you. He was good tonight.

– The power play has continued to go cold, which in a way is a course correction? Maybe? If I say it like that will I stop worrying so much? After being so terrible for so long and then so unstoppable for a stretch I guess it stands to reason that it would cool off a little. But I won’t lie—it would be encouraging if they could at least get one goal on the man advantage if they’re going to cosplay that they’re a playoff team. Did you know it’s been since the Anaheim game on February 27th that they got a power play goal? If you did, I’m sorry. If you didn’t, I’m even sorrier.

Two points are two points and they need every single one right now. Also lol Montreal, it’s great when we’re not the only ones who fuck it up when it matters. If the Hawks are really going to steal the last wild card they have to keep this going on Monday. Can they? At this point it’s anyone’s guess who shows up, but at least we know what Crawford is still capable of. Onward and upward…

 

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vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 31-30-9   Canadiens 37-27-7

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: WGN

WELL WE’RE NOT GONNA, WE’RE GONNA HAVE A SANDWICH: Habs Eyes On The Prize

Two teams scrapping desperately for playoff spots will meet up on Hockey Night In Canada in Montreal tonight. Which sounds weird given there’s a 10-point difference between the two. But that’s the tale of East and West this year. We don’t make the rules.

Though they’re hardly the best team in the East you can find, there are not too many teams the Hawks should want to see less after their attempted 3rd period sepuku against the Leafs on Wednesday. That’s because the Habs are one of the faster teams around, with four lines of nippy forwards whose only aim is to get up the ice as quickly and efficiently as possible. They’re one of the best possession teams in the league, and are probably a premier sniper away from being much higher in the standings. Seeing as how the Hawks are slow and don’t possess the puck, it’s not really the best matchup at all. You saw what happened when a fast team really gets going against the Hawks last out. They’re still picking up parts of the Hawks off the Toronto ice and trying to identify it through dental records.

But still the Habs are clinging on in the East and the Atlantic. If the music were to stop today, Les Habitants would not have a chair and would have to sit over there with a juice box. They’re two points behind both the Jackets and Hurricanes for the wildcard spots, and the Canes have a game in hand as well. It would be a second-straight season of no playoffs and third in four, which for an organization that thinks of itself as the center of the hockey world, if not universe entirely, would be unacceptable. So how did we get here?

Hard to figure. The big, glaring, pulsing rash is that the Canadiens have a power play that looks like what the Hawks’ used to looked like. It’s dead last in the league, connecting at a 12% rate. Pretty much everywhere else the Habs are at least middle of the pack, if not better, but because they can’t get easier goals they’re having to win every game at even-strength. And that’s hard to do when you’re merely functional everywhere else and not buoyant. It basically leaves you with the good record Montreal has, but in the East that’s only enough to hope to squeeze in.

Up and down the lineup you’ll see players slotted just a touch higher than they should be. Brendan Gallagher and Max Domi have been the most dynamic, but they’re both probably second-line players on a really good team. Only one of them is here. Phillip Danault causes cartoon hearts to float out of our chest, but he’s a #3 and not a #2. Tomas Tatar shouldn’t be on a top-six of a team that means to do anything meaningful, as Red Wings fans can attest. It’s a team that is just short pretty much everywhere.

And Carey Price is also functional-to-good, though not at the moment the galactic being he used to be. A .915 SV% is nothing to sneeze at these days, but doesn’t put him amongst the league leaders, which used to be his hood. He’s also had to play more than the Canadiens would have liked, because–and stop me if you’ve heard this before–Antti Niemi as the backup has been a gas leak. He’s had one start in the past month, and you’d have to imagine they’re going to have to ride Price now to 65+ starts which can’t ever have been the plan.

That doesn’t mean they can’t be a headache on a given night, especially for a leaden-footed defense like the Hawks. The Bleu, Blanc, and Rouge have gotten on the popular train and now let their forwards streak up the ice, trying to get up into and around the opposing defense before the forwards can help out. The Hawks really struggle with this, so they’ll have to be as clean as possible tonight. That means no turnovers at either line, and busting it back. If the Hawks can keep the puck for any period of time, the Habs defense isn’t anything that would cause a sonnet to be written, and Price isn’t the set of iron bars he used to be. But open up a sliver to this team and they can turn it into a wound pretty quickly. And then Max Domi is smiling or Andrew Shaw is screaming or Brendan Gallagher is yapping and you’ll want to throw your shoe through the TV.

For the Hawks, wouldn’t expect any changes. Crawford is healthy and continent, so that’s three periods he gets to play. He usually plays pretty damn well back home in Montreal, and the Hawks will likely need it.

The Hawks already got a bonus two points out of this Canadian swing. But that doesn’t matter if you don’t get at least one, and really both, of the points out of here that you would have been aiming for before it began. There’s a long way to go, but it is possible as the Canucks and Flyers at home are next and then a home-and-home with a direct competitor in Colorado. It’s all in front of the Hawks for the next week. It’ll take almost all of the points there, if not all, but that’s the path they’ve chosen. If they’re serious about this, they’ll need every last drop before that last week gauntlet of Winnipeg, St. Louis, Dallas, and Nashville. These are two they probably need to get.

 

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It’s been three seasons now, so the shock of the Shea Weber-PK Subban trade has worn off. Subban has gone on to anchor a Cup-contender for his entire time in Nashville, while Weber’s record in Montreal is much more spotty. Canadiens diehards (read: sycophants) would tell you that all of Subban’s teammates hate him in Nashville, as they did in Montreal, at least according to the tinfoil hat brigade. Sadly for the Habs, Weber hasn’t been around all that much to generate any kind of opinion amongst those who share his colors.

Weber’s scoring has maintained its usual pace. It’s just a tick below what he did in yellow, but he’s been better than a point-per-every-other-game. The problem is that Weber hasn’t been able to make the bell that often of late. He only played 26 games last year, and missed an additional 23 this year. Now, that’s all due to one knee surgery, but a large, physical d-man on a repaired knee is not the optimal situation. Still, before that Weber was the picture of stability, never missing more than four games in a year.

Digging a bit deeper, Weber has never really been a great metric player. He hasn’t carried a possession-rate above his team’s rate since 2012. He’s never been all that far below it either, but he’ll go as the team goes. His scoring-chance relative numbers are pretty much the same. Where Weber has excelled in the great chances department, as he’s been above the rate in high-danger percentage in the past four seasons. That has continued this season as well, though not as high as the past three.

The question for the Canadiens is does Weber fit into the new world they’ve created. Weber was brought in back when the Habs were under Michel Therrien and were still under the impression they had to be knuckle-dragging, frothing swamp creatures that chased the coveted-by-morons label “hard to play against.” When that resulted in exactly dick, the Habs have spent the past year transitioning into a smaller, faster team that tries to get up the ice as soon as possible. Play off the rush, carry the puck through the neutral zone and and into the offensive one, and try and generate chances before the other team can get set up. It’s parroting or copying what the Penguins and Knights and others have done recently.

Weber is still a gifted passer, but especially on a surgically-repaired knee he’s never been all that quick. Maybe Weber can adapt to flying passes from his zone to the other blue line to streaking forwards. He’s going to have to. He’s never been one to carry the puck himself, that’s what Roman Josi was for in Nashville, and Ryan Suter before that. But if you’re stationary, that means quicker and quicker forechecking forwards can get to you before you hit those outlet passes. Even if Weber can open himself up now, he’s 33 and coming off knee problems. How much more time until he can’t?

Which is obviously a problem, because as you probably know Weber is signed until the Earth’s heat-death. These days his $7.8M hit doesn’t look as bad (wait until Gustafsson asks for this in the summer of ’20), but it’s not insignificant either. We all knew this when the move was made, obviously.

The Canadiens didn’t have to move too much comfortable furniture to upgrade to this lightning-bug team. Max Pacioretty didn’t really fit, but he was leaving anyway and he hasn’t fit all that well in Vegas either who do the same thing. Karl Alzner ended up in the AHL. But they may soon find they have the biggest decision to make yet.

 

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We went big-timing for this one. A Saturday night in Montreal calls for that. Andrew Berkshire is the analytics dude for Sportsnet north of The Wall. Follow him @AndrewBerkshire.

Metrically, the Canadiens are one of the better teams around. Claude Julien has transitioned them to a pretty quick team that plays that way. Their PDO is fine, they get decent goaltending. So why is this team barely scratching away for a playoff spot?
There’s a few things that the public data misses about the Canadiens, the first thing is that they’re one of the league’s worst pass defence teams. Opponents don’t have much trouble zipping the puck through lanes in the Habs’ end, and even if the Canadiens aren’t giving up a ton of chances, the ones they do give up are of high quality.
The other factor is that while their metrics look great at 5-vs-5, they’re godawful on special teams. Price had phenomenal penalty killing numbers for most of the season, even while he was struggling, and that hid their ineptitude there. Most of the focus is on the powerplay, but the penalty kill has been nearly as bad. Those are the issues currently holding them back.
At the time of the trade, we thought the Have got the worst of the Domi-for-Galchenyuk trade. Um…whoops?
I think at the time of the trade that was a relatively logical assumption, Galchenyuk was being traded at his lowest value, and Domi had always seemed a little lost offensively in Arizona after his rookie season. There’s something in the water in Arizona that just prevents goal scoring. Galchenyuk is having a pretty awful offensive season, and the only Coyotes forward with more points is Clayton Keller, and he leads the team in goals with 15. How is Arizona in a playoff position? (watch a Western Conference game sometime -ED)
Domi was taken from what looks like a situation that is the death of offence, and was dropped into a system that appears to be tailor made for his playing style. Lots of attacking off the rush with speed, and he has free reign to skate the puck through the neutral zone. I think it might be the perfect situation for an underrated player. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also playing secondary minutes now too. The Gallagher line is the primary one, and Domi can focus on secondary matchups.
We’ve tried making the case that Jesperi Kotkaniemi should be a Selke candidate. Even if he’s not now, how many will he win before he’s through? 12? 15? 27 as they give him bonus ones?
I loved this article by Olivier Bouchard on Kotkaniemi’s defensive play. He certainly looks like a budding star defensive forward, but between the tail end of Patrice Bergeron‘s career and the rise of Aleksander Barkov, we might be waiting a long while for him to win one.
Has Victor Mete finally broken through with Julien?
I think Julien’s usage of Mete has been pretty strong since he broke into the league, he didn’t want to overload him and probably still doesn’t. As much as Mete has improved, I think the reason he’s used a bunch right now has more to do with the cavernous hole Montreal has on the left side defence than anything.
Seriously, how do you give up eight to the Ducks?
A great question! I’m not sure if the emotional rollercoaster the Habs were riding the first 50 games of the season has broken down or if that 3-0 blown lead against the Maple Leafs broke their confidence, but they’re playing pretty awful lately. Somehow, awful enough to give up eight to the Ducks.

 

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We’re not anti-facial hair. We can’t be. Our editor doesn’t have a chin and uses a beard to cover that up. But there seems to be a hockey rule that if you’re going to wear a beard full-time, it has to be stupidly big. And if you have a big, stupid beard, you can probably fool people into thinking you’re intimidating and a physical presence. You look like one, so you must be one. If you think hockey scouting has moved beyond “looking like one,” you haven’t been paying attention. Hockey scouts are still trying to sell jeans here, to borrow a term.

Jordie Benn has that along with the lucky last name policy. Don’t make it complicated. Jordie Benn sucks. He always has. If his name was Jordie Shnrub he’d be on a bus somewhere heading to somewhere you wouldn’t want to be. Throw in a big beard, and you can’t get rid of him. Oh he blocks a lot of shots? Does it count when you simply can’t get out of the way? We don’t think it does.

And he’s got a beard. He’s not Joe Thornton, who at least has old-man-who’s-too-tired-to-shave excuse built in. He’s not Brent Burns, who’s trying really hard to be weird. This isn’t Park Slope, so fuck off with that shit, Jordie. We might actually believe you growl and grunt when on the ice. You clearly want us to. But it’s not helping with anything.

Unless you’re in Anthrax, trim that shit up and leave us alone.

 

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