Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Eloy Jimenez

By Adam Hess 1564 0

We continue on our adventure through the White Sox’ exclusive group of players that will actually matter in the future, this time bringing us to Eloy Jimenez and his beautiful smile. Let’s just get to it because I am excited.

2019 Stats

.267/.315/.513

Vs LHP .259 Vs RHP .270

6.0 BB% 26.6 K%

31 HR 79 RBI 69 R

.343 wOBA 117 wRC+ 1.9 fWAR

Defensive Runs Saved -11 UZR -5.1

Tell Me A Story: The White Sox played hardball with Eloy Jimenez and the service time game in 2018, leaving him in AAA even after it was obvious in May of that year, when he was in AA, that he was MLB ready. The Sox even went far enough to burn an option year (not that they will be important) by sending him down to AAA camp a few weeks before opening day. That remains a curious move to me, because they were obviously negotiating a contract extension with him at the time, so it was unnecessary. Even if he hadn’t signed that deal, they could’ve sent him down at the last second. The option won’t matter, but it was still weird.

Regardless, Eloy signed and was in the opening day lineup, deservedly. He spent most of the early season hitting in the 5-spot, and kinda bounced around between there and the 6-spot most of the season. Near the end of the year, as he really came on (more on that in a moment), he started to hit cleanup more consistently, but he only even hit higher than that twice in his 122 games, hitting second once in late May and third once in early September. He also hit seventh a handful of times, but we will pretend that didn’t happen because realistically it never will again.

Moving toward the actual on-field performance, let’s start with the bad. That’s because there isn’t much so we can get through it quickly. The defense needs work. We knew it would be an issue, but we didn’t necessarily know it would be as big of an issue as it turned out to be. There were some slight improvements if you squint hard enough, but not enough to overshadow the fact that he injured himself on an ugly defensive play – TWICE. Reports indicate he works hard with the coaching staff to improve his defense, but this may always be an issue. Still, it’s far too early to give up on Eloy as a fielder, because you’re gonna need him to be able to play out there. It’s far too soon to seriously consider a full-time shift to DH. He’s only 22, after all.

Eloy got off to a slow start, and that could be putting it quite generously. Through May, he was hitting .220/.273/.390 with a wRC+ of 75, while striking out 29.5% of the time. He also had just 6 homers in that time. I didn’t go dig up the numbers, but I remember that in those first two months pitchers were taking advantage of his aggressiveness and just eating him alive with hard sliders low and away that he just couldn’t lay off. Eloy was far too good of a hitter to ever be challenged by minor league pitching, so seeing that happen early on was slightly surprising, though not necessarily discouraging. The talent and power were still there, he just couldn’t force pitchers to throw him fastballs yet.

After those first two months, things looked up for Eloy. From June 1 to July 31, he slashed .244/.313/.527 for a 117 wRC+. The K-rate was still in excess of 27% but he was walking more and hitting the ball a lot harder, improving his hard-hit percentage from ~26% through May to 40.1% in June and July. He also hit 11 of his 31 dingers in those months.

August and September were where he really shined, though. Truthfully, the real Eloy Jimenez stood up in the final third of the season, and he smashed his way to a .308/.342/.575 line with a wRC+ of 140. His hard-hit rate climbed to a mean 42.1%, and he had an identical medium-hit rate, meaning he was making paltry contact less than a fifth of the time, a huge improvement from the early aughts where it was more than a quarter of the time. And it showed up in the stat line, as he smashed 14 of big flies in these months, which is damn near half.

In total, after the first two months of the season, Eloy hit .284/.331/.557 with a wRC+ of 131. That is, as they say very fucking good, and pretty much in line with what a lot of people expected from him. When we did our season preview roundtable for the Sox, I said I was expecting a .270 season with 30+ dingers, and I was pretty much spot on. All in all, Eloy showed every bit the promise we were dreaming his bat could have.

And oh yeah, he did this at Wrigley.

Contract: Signed through 2024 on a 6-year, $43-million contract that includes team options for 2025 and 2026. Those options reportedly push the total value of the deal close to $80-million.

Welcome Back or Boot In The Ass: Another easy keeper here. Eloy should be hitting third or fourth in this lineup on opening day for the next seven years at least, and hopefully more. Rick Hahn mentioned right field as a need area this offseason, and the Sox have been heavily linked to J.D. Martinez rumors so far (make of that what you will), so it’s safe to say they don’t view his defense as a problem and are writing him into the roster as the starting left fielder as well.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Ian Happ

By Sam Fels 1548 0

I don’t think there’s a player I’m more confounded by than Ian Happ. And that’s because one week I’ll feel like he’s not getting a real chance, and then the next week I’ll think he’s never going to be anything, and then the one after that I’ll be in the middle before starting the whole cycle over again. It’s dizzying. See if we can’t make sense of it today with some separation from the season.

2019 Stats

58 gams, 156 PA

.264/.333/.564

9.6 BB%  25.0 K% 

11 HR  25 RBI

127 wRC+  .368 wOBA  .898 OPS

2.9 Defensive Runs Saved  1.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: And that’s the thing. Look at those numbers for a third of a season. They’re really good. Like, really good. Even the defense! And yet didn’t you spend at least a portion of Happ’s time in Chicago this year thinking, “It’s never going to happen for this guy. Yet another 1st round miss! SAD!”  Of course you did. We all did. And yet there it is in black and white. He didn’t miss. So just what the fuck is going on here?

With Happ you almost have to go week-to-week or even game-by-game this year to try and get a handle on it. He was called up in late July, got five straight starts though only got two hits in them. But he did walk a ton in those. He then wouldn’t get a start for another week (huh?), earning them after doing some really nice work off the bench (a theme that would continue for the rest of the season). He would get a start the next six games, and in those he pretty much mashed, going 8-for-21 with three homers and only a few strikeouts. Happ started the next three games, only getting one hit, and then only get a start in three of the next eight. It was at this point that Anthony Rizzo got hurt the first time, and Happ would essentially get three straight starts at first, including the sweep of the Mets where he homered of Syndergaard.

It’s in the next stretch where Happ went cold, which seems to have defined his season at least in Maddon’s mind and probably mine. Happ would go 11-for-51 over the next couple weeks, starting either every other game at first and then every third and then none at all. And then of course Happ lit up the Pirates and Cardinals in the last week to give his numbers something of a shine. The games didn’t matter to the Cubs, but they did matter to the Cardinals, and it was only two games, so what the fuck do we make of it? If anything I’m more confused than I was. No one said it would be easy.

What we can say is that Happ had a rough couple weeks in there, which happens to everyone, and had it come earlier in the season or the Cubs with a comfortable lead in the division (and watching the Cardinals in the playoffs it’s even more galling that the Cubs somehow boned this so hard), Joe Maddon probably would just have let Happ play out of it. But given the urgency and time, he couldn’t. Or wouldn’t. I’m not sure. Neither are you. We’re sinking deeper and deeper here.

What we can say is that Happ did cut down his strikeouts this year, from being well over a third of the time to a quarter. That’s still not great, but you can live with it. And frankly in just these 58 games, he put up the same WAR he did in all of 2018 and nearly the same amount as 2017 which the Cubs are basing so much emotion on in the first place.

And while the Cubs harf-harf-harf about more contact, here they have a player who did make more contact. Happ raised his contact% from 77% in ’17 and 70% in ’18 to 82% in his cameo this year. That’s just a tick below league average, which for the Cubs is a goddamn bonanza. Is that real or just a splurge in limited playing time? No one knows, and our picture remains muddied and our lives unclear and the answers farther away. Eat Arby’s.

On the downside, Happ saw a major drop in the amount of line-drives he hit this time around, to about 15%. And an increase in grounders, which isn’t good. His exit-velocity dipped a touch as well. But again, given the sample size, it’s hard to know if this is a trend or just a spike or something in between. All we have is fog.

The book on Happ was that you could simply blow fastballs up in the zone by him all day, and he would murder you on low pitches. The latter still stayed basically the same, as Happ slugged .709 against sinkers this year. The real improvement for Happ came on breaking pitches. Where in the previous two years, he had only managed a .181 average on sliders and .225 on curves, those numbers this year were .529 and .421. He wasn’t cheating to the fastball and getting left out to dry and out ahead by anything.

Were high fastballs still a problem? Yes, of course. But Happ did show improvement in getting to them as a left-handed hitter in the middle or inside. Still not great, but moving in the right direction.

Perhaps the real upset here is that Happ graded out really well with the glove at second and in center. We think of him as a butcher in center, and the very few times they planted him between Castellanos and Schwarber we were pretty much watching with a book on our head. But the numbers suggest he was pretty good out there, with very positive UZR and UZR-150 numbers. I’m just telling you what they say.

Picture is not so clear now, is it?

Contract: Team Control, Arb Eligible in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: When the season ended, Happ was probably a poster boy for a lot (and maybe even some in the front office) that think he’s the type of hitter the Cubs need to get away from. But that’s just not the case, or it wasn’t in 2019. Now, does that mean he should automatically be back? Not exactly. Given that he’s under team control, his pure athleticism that can have him deployed all over the diamond, the power that we know is there, and the at least somewhat encouraging signs of his abbreviated season in the Bigs, he might have some trade value and could help the Cubs get an arm they need.

That said, with the Cubs priorities having to be pitching and really pitching alone given what’s out there and what we think their budget constraints might be, and given that Happ makes pretty much nothing, he’s also extremely valuable to the Cubs. Or could be. At worst, he could start the season flipping with David Bote at second to keep the seat warm for Nico Hoerner while also getting starts in center. Again, he might be really improving out there. There are basically no center fielders to be gotten in free agency, unless you want to roll the dice on Brett Gardner‘s career-year, and you probably shouldn’t. Whatever trades the Cubs are going to make pretty much have to be for pitching. And if Happ stubs his toe again and the team needs someone in center, they’re more likely to find it at the deadline than in free agency.

Happ only just turned 25, which means he’s just about to enter his prime or just has. Yeah, the pitfalls there and his career feels like it’s careening along a mountain road with no guardrails. It could end with a beautiful view…or it could have a date with some very jagged rocks at very high speeds.

To me, Happ does too much–or has the potential to do too much–to not take one more look in 2020. There may be more answers here than we first thought.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Yoan Moncada

By Andy Jonathan 1887 0

Now we come to another key member of The Future™ who had himself a breakout year, Yoan Moncada. Not only did he bust out at the plate (ending up the 4th best hitter in the AL behind Timmy, DJ LeMahieu and Michael Brantley) but also in the field, transitioning pretty seamlessly from the cornerstone position to the hot corner. Let’s dig in, shall we?

 

2019 Stats

.315/.367/.548

Vs LHP .299 Vs RHP .322

7.2 BB% 27.5 K%

25 HR 79 RBI 81 R

.379 wOBA 141 wRC+ 5.7 WAR

Defensive Runs Saved -6 UZR +4.3

 

Tell Me A Story: Questions, questions, questions. Coming into the 2019 season, all Moncada had around him were questions.  In 2018 he slashed .235/.315/.714 and lead the AL in strikeouts which lead to question after question about whether or not Moncada should abandon switch hitting, about his aggressiveness at the plate and whether or not he took too many called 3rd strikes, all the way to his preparation level for his defensive play. There were even a few members of Sox Twitter (depression level: Joker) who had doubts about his hustle level during the season.

Moncada apparently heard all of these questions himself, as in the off-season he headed to Arizona to work with hitting coach Todd Steverson for the Long Dark of winter. During those months, he spent a considerable amount of time on his swing mechanics and working on being more aggressive at the plate. In addition to that, in the middle of his off-season workouts he found out from Ricks Hahn and Renteria that the Sox were going to move him back to 3rd base, which was his original position when he was drafted out of Cuba by the Red Sox. That’s a lot to deal with for someone who was admittedly struggling under the pressure of being ranked the best prospect in baseball and being the cornerstone of a trade involving a potential hall of fame pitcher.

The work he put in during the winter was immediately shown off during Cactus League play in March where he posted a 1.110 OPS and clocked a few dingers. Most importantly he looked far more comfortable hitting from the right side of the plate, where quite a few times he looked lost in 2018. The hot spring training carried right over to the regular season where he hit .301 in April and knocked out 6 of his eventual 25 home runs.

His effectiveness from both sides of the plate was worth noting, as he was able to up his average hitting right handed from .209 in 2018 all the way to .299 this year. The strikeouts dropped precipitously as well, going from a league high 217 last year down to a far more respectable 153 this season. His walk rate dropped, but that’s something you would expect from a player actively working on being more aggressive at the plate. Really the only thing missing in Yoan’s offensive game is power from the right side of the plate, which you can see below in his slugging heat charts.

               

 

Defensively, Moncada improved as well moving from 2B to 3rd pretty easily. His DRS score may not show it with an ugly -6 but looking at his Ultimate Zone Rating for his play at 3rd base and it’s positive for the first time ever in his career. Fangraphs also had him as the 4th best overall 3B in the whole league, based on qualifying time. So while DRS is a solid stat, sometimes it does not tell the entire story defensively for a player. His errors also dropped from 29 last season down to 15 for this year. Not too shabby for one off-season of hard work, which should hopefully put to rest the talk of his lack of preparation and hustle.

Moncada did miss some time at the beginning of August with a hamstring strain, and a few games after getting drilled on the knee with a Chris Sale slider the same game where the Sox lost Tim Anderson to the shitty field conditions at Fenway. Overall however, he was able to stay on the field pretty consistently which is what you would hope for your hot corner.

Contract: Under team control through 2020 making $550,000, Arbitration begins in 2021, free agency in 2024. I would expect the Sox to try and buy him out of those arbitration years in a deal similar (but more expensive) to what Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez got.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Once again, just like Timmy there’s no question that Moncada comes back as perhaps the most important member of The Future™ club. Questions going into next season are all predicated on what Rick Hahn has planned for free agency. While I don’t expect Moncada to be moved in the field again as he’s settled in nicely at 3rd, I wouldn’t completely rule it out should the team make a surprise run at Anthony Rendon should he not re-sign in DC. Other than that, it’s a question of where he hits in the lineup and who is on base for him to drive in. Sky is the limit for Yoan here on out, and it’s gonna be awesome to watch him become the superstar he was advertised to be back when the Sale trade was made. The Red Sox may have won the battle, but I think the White Sox win the war.

 

 

 

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Tim F’n Anderson

By Andy Jonathan 1607 0

Here he is, ladies and gentlemen: Your 2019 American League Batting Champion and Gold Medal Winning Bat Flipper……

TIM ANDERSON

/PYRO GOES OFF

/CROWD GOES BALLISTIC

/NED YOST SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUSTS

 

 

2019 Stats

.335/.357/.508

2.9 BB% 21.0 K%

18 HR 56 RBI 86 R

.363 wOBA 130 wRC+ 3.5 WAR

Defensive Runs Saved -9

 

 

Tell Me A Story: In a season where Rick Hahn really needed some pieces of The Future™ to break out and give the rebuild a nice new glossy shine, Tim Anderson stepped up and not only gave Hahn a success story (along with Yoan and a few others), but the White Sox organization a face and an attitude they can market the living shit out of if they do it right. This season can be classified as nothing but a giant plus for Tim Anderson and the team, and while there are a few questions going forward, it’s nice to finally have something to energize the fan base and get people excited about the product on the field again.

Looking at Anderson’s stats this season there are a few things that immediately leap out at you, the first of which is obviously his AL leading batting average and his .508 slugging percentage. The .357 OBP tells you the thing that we’ve known all along as Sox fans, mainly that Tim Anderson is not up there looking to take a walk. His 21% K rate is league average however, which means that he’s able more often than not to put the ball in play. So the big question is how was Tim able to boost his batting average by almost .095 this season? His .399 BABIP suggests a good chunk of those gains were of the batted ball luck variety. Looking at his contact rates shows everything pretty close to his career averages especially in terms of his hard hit rating (32.2%) and his line drive percentages (23.8%). Even looking at his batting average chart shows a player that has very little preference as to where the pitch is. If Tim thinks he can get to it (he does), then he’s going to swing at it.

So a fair chunk of Anderson’s offensive increases this season had something to do with batted ball luck, which is fine. This is the 2nd year of his 4 year career where he’s had a BABIP over .350. The first was his rookie year where his BABIP was .375 which is pretty high. Despite that he still hit .280, so BABIP in and of itself is not the only explanation for his high average. In reality, if his BABIP regresses next season to around .320 (which is statistically likely) you could expect Anderson to hit around .280-.285ish next season. I don’t know of anyone out there who wouldn’t take that from your likely #6 hitter next season, especially if the power numbers stay the same. Again, his slugging percentage was about .100 above his career average and I don’t think anyone expects that to stay the same but .450 would be more than acceptable for that spot in the lineup.

Defensively Tim had a pretty rough year, as the -9 DRS score is the worst of his career. In fact, he’s been negative twice for DRS out of the 4 years he’s played as in 2017 he was a -8. The other two years he was 0 and +6 giving him an average of -2.75 DRS per year. If you add in all of the other advanced fielding metrics like UZR and total errors, Tim grades out to be the worst shortstop defensively since 2017. The question then becomes one that is going to be repeated for the Sox in the search for a right fielder. Are you willing to sacrifice defense for offensive ability? Can Tim Anderson improve enough at SS to creep into the middle defensive tier where it’s a little more acceptable? The talent and ability to play solid D is definitely there, as he proved his rookie year when he was 15th out of 30 defensively in the league. He also has some of the better range and arm strength around. It’s a tough question, and one that Rick Hahn is going to have to answer before he hits the shopping market this off-season.

In addition to all the stats stuff, Tim Anderson is just a fun player to watch. Bat flips aside, he clearly has a ton of fun playing the game. He’s also extremely active in the community, and as a prominent African American playing baseball on the South Side of Chicago, that’s something that cannot be measured. His organization League of Leaders was founded in 2017 after a friend of Tim’s was shot and killed trying to help someone who was being beaten in an attack. In addition to that work, Tim donated $500 to the Anti-Violence network for every stolen base he had this past season. Jose Abreu may be the de facto leader in the clubhouse, but if you combine Tim’s charity work with the passion he shows on the field there’s no doubt the Sox have someone on their hands who can attract a younger, more diverse crowd to their product.

Contract: Signed through 2022 at $4.15 million with team options in 2023 and 24

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: It’s not even a question, as a founding member of The Future™ and a member of the MLB “Let The Kids Play Until We Don’t Want Them Playing So Hard Because It Makes Old People Mad” group, Tim Anderson isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. That being said, there are a few questions this off-season that are going to need to be answered.

1. Is shortstop the ultimate position for Tim Anderson?

2. How much regression is coming for his hitting?

3. Will the new Royals manager hate Tim as much as Ned Yost?

The answer to the first one (in my opinion) is yes. With the impending arrival of Luis Robert and the expected signing of a right fielder in the off-season combined with the fact that you don’t really have a replacement for Tim at short makes me think the Sox are going to be willing to deal with the defensive shortcomings for the foreseeable future.

As to the regression question, I personally would expect something along the lines of .285/305/.790 for Tim next year, using my tried and true mathematical method of pulling numbers freely out of my ass. Anything more than that and you have to start moving his comps up to the Xander Bogaerts level, which I’m completely fine with. Anything less than that would not agree with my model, and therefore is considered an outlier to be disregarded.

As for question number 3, that’s going to be a hard yes forever and ever.

Fuck the Royals.

 

 

 

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Barf Bag

By Sam Fels 1723 0

It’s the counter to “Fleabag,” clearly.

Most of the time, I enjoy doing these, just because I like digging around on FanGraphs or BrooksBaseball to find nuggets to explain things away. Or maybe because I just enjoy writing and talking about baseball that much. Today is not that day. We’re in this together, people. Strength in numbers. Here’s Addison Russell’s 2019, hopefully his last on the Northside.

2019 Stats

82 games, 241 PAs

.237/.308/.391

8.3 BB%  24.1 K%

9 HR  23 RBI

.297 wOBA . 81 wRC+  .699 OPS

3.3 Defensive Runs Saved  0.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Oh good god. Here’s the thing about Addison Russell: On the field (we’ll get to the whole story in a minute), it feels like a lot of people, including in the Cubs’ front office, had this impression that Russell has ever been a productive offensive player. He hasn’t. If you can avoid being blinded by the 98 RBI in 2016, which is a product of opportunity as much as skill if not more, he’s never had a wRC+ of 100 or a wOBA of over .320. When he put up the 95 wRC+ in 2016, it was justified in thinking that would eventually be a launch-point. Something he built off of. Well, he didn’t. That now looks like his ceiling, and one he’ll need a hell of a fucking stepladder to touch again.

Russell’s power (at least to hit baseballs hard) went away in 2018 and it didn’t come back this year in the least. Unless slugging percentages that almost don’t reach the .300s are your thing, and it would be if this were 1912. Russell is never going to hit for a high enough average to not hit for power and be effective, and he’s not fast enough to beat out infield hits or take extra bases either. More worryingly, Russell’s contact-type numbers are an exhibition of piss-poor-edness, even in this year of the SuperBall. Whether you go by hard-contact percentage (31%) or average exit velocity (86.3 MPH), it’s clear that Russell doesn’t do much other than breathe on the ball and passively send it on its way.

Oh, and most of that contact is on the ground. It’s a fiesta of suckitude.

A continuing theme with the Cubs hitters is that a good portion of them could be beat by fastballs not just above the zone, but high in the zone that they couldn’t just take. Russell was no different:

And it’s not like he could not swing at them either. In trying to catch up to them, Russell was also mucho susceptible to sliders, which he had a 41% whiff-per-swing rate on. You could get him out either way, whatever your mood that day.

There was a time when it looked like Russell might develop a more patient approach at the plate, with a 9% walk-rate in ’16 that could have grown. It didn’t, and he’s been below that in the three seasons since. Considering the lack of pop, Russell probably needs a walk-rate over 10% to even get a GPS to an effective hitter, and there’s no sign that’s going to happen.

When watching Russell, you get the impression his bat-speed just isn’t going to catch up to what MLB pitchers are throwing, and he can only feast on mistakes in the inner part of the zone. Russell just doesn’t have the power to go up the middle or the opposite field and be effective that way, nor really the patience to try.

Other than all that, he’s a fine hitter.

While it’s easy to remember all the errors, some egregious, over the half-season he played Russell’s defense actually grades out fine. And that will probably continue, and hey it might even get better were he to grow a brain at any point in his adult life.

Of course, the most galling thing about Russell is the lack of attention to anything on or off the field, as well as being a genuine scumbag. Russell seemingly hasn’t taken any responsibility for anything that he’s done, at least before Cubs media relations have to clean up his mess of the mouth and send him back out there with prepared statements.

It’s the far lesser crime, but that has leaked onto the field too. Russell’s lack of attention is the main thing holding him from being even a contributor, and he doesn’t seem to have any actual instincts for the game. At every other level his athleticism would get him through that, but not here. And moreover, he doesn’t seem to want to learn. I’m sure the signs on a Major League team are a tad more complicated than the ones we used in high school. But I also doubt the process of learning them is too much more than the three-minute talk we got minutes before the first game of the season. Yet Russell unfathomably told everyone he didn’t know them. After five seasons under the same manager. It’s a desolate and arid place, the space between his ears.

Contract: Arbitration eligible, MLBTR projects $5.1M for 2020

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: The hardest of boots in the fleshiest part of his ass. Even if Russell weren’t a complete dolt and ghoul, it would appear a spot for him has disappeared. Starting shortstop is taken, and the Cubs are probably pretty determined to give second to Nico Hoerner before the All-Star break next year at the latest. Even at just that, $5M for this headache to be merely a fifth infielder is hardly worth it, and he would still have to provide offense he hasn’t looked close to producing in two seasons. Happ might not have his glove but the bat still has far more potential, and Bote can at least provide competency in both departments until it’s Hoerner’s show.

Now, I’ve been of the opinion that if the Cubs were truly sincere in their claims to want to guide Russell out of his dungeon of evil and stupidity into an actual addition to society, they can’t actually get rid of him. But the cover for them is to say they think he’s progressed enough as a person that he can be judged as any player would on the field, which would be enough justification to deposit him in whatever unfortunate dumpster that deserved better is nearby. Or they could claim he’s regressed in all areas. The bottom line is that his play on the field simply isn’t of a Major League level and it’s time for everyone to move on.

Russell will also be 26 come spring training, so one might conclude there just isn’t that much more room for improvement and this is probably what he is. We have basically four seasons of sample now. What do you see? Nothing that’s worth all this, both personally and professionally. Just a massive, massive failure.

 

Baseball

MLB Might Be Worse At Running A Conspiracy Than The White House

By Sam Fels 1633 0

We might have to start calling Rob Manfred “Baghdad Bob” soon.

Anyway, if you didn’t see this yesterday, here you go. That’s Ben Lindbergh summing up at how the baseball is different this postseason than it was in the regular season. And if that’s not enough, you can use Rob Arthur’s Twitter account to basically give you the same stuff. Or his own article on BP. Or, if you watched Will Smith crush that ball in the ninth of Game 5 against the Nats, flip his bat, assume he was about to be LA’s biggest hero for a night and dreaming of all the velvet ropes that would be cast aside for him, only to watch it gasp for air and then wheeze out of life on the warning track, you knew something was up. Hell, even Howie Kendrick’s series decider, which he was celebrating in the box, only scraped the other side of the wall. There are other examples in the division round, but clearly what players knew all season to be homer contact/sound isn’t quite that in October.

We just went through a regular season where homers were flying at record and downright silly rates. And no matter what team you root for, you can think of a couple by your guys that when they were hit you couldn’t believe went out. For me, Schwarber’s arms only flip to the opposite field for his third homer of the day in Milwaukee immediately springs to mind. And yet for months, MLB and Manfred clung to the excuse that Rawlings had been “centering the ball” better as a reason for the greater aerodynamics of the baseball being used.

They finally relented, as if we could just ignore the fact that MLB itself bought Rawlings last season and this was the first time they were making baseballs under that umbrella for MLB. An organization worried about the lack of offense in the game. So MLB wanted you to believe that it either had no control over HOW A COMPANY IT OWNS MANUFACTURED THE VERY STARTING POINT OF ITS GAME, or that these things just happened naturally.

However, with the ball seemingly changing for its most important games, MLB has basically told you that what went on in the regular season is, at least somewhat, farcical. What they’re telling you is that they were terrified of some ridiculous homer deciding a series, a season, turning the direction of one or two teams for years possibly. Which means they think that homers in the regular season weren’t worthy of that, or hence not fair, or not right. They’ve essentially, partially negated all that went on between the end of March and the end of September. They’ve provided their own asterisk, which is a word that makes every baseball fan make a “blech” sound.

It’s not all that different than the NHL throwing shootouts out of its regular season tiebreakers and moving to remove overtime results from them as well. They’re moving in the direction of saying, “Yeah that’s fun to watch and all them but it really shouldn’t count. That was a sideshow.”

In the end, both teams are using the same ball, so it’s not like one team gets an advantage out of it or anything. But again, MLB will want you to believe that this just happened and they didn’t do anything to change the ball. We of course know this is horseshit, unless they think we’re that stupid. And they might.

Still, we can assume that MLB hyperactivated its baseballs because it thought that’s what fans wanted. And then when the most fans are watching, they kind of made a constipated face and thought, “Yeah, that was all kind of stupid, huh?” Which gives one the idea that MLB doesn’t really know what its fans want or how to get new ones, as TV ratings and attendance keep trending the wrong ways.

Me? I’m more along the lines of homers being dramatic and rarer than the mere “holding serve” feeling they took on during this season. That doesn’t mean that’s what everyone should want or the way MLB should go. I honestly don’t know. I just enjoy watching an entire league basically admitting it fucked up and not having the stones to see it through when the most important matters are decided.

Either MLB is deceiving everyone, or it simply cannot regulate how the actual baseball is produced. Neither speaks to a terribly competent organization.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 White Sox Player Reviews: Yolmer Sanchez

By Sam Fels 1103 0

In a rebuild, sometimes there are fan favorites who get left behind as the younger and more serious players are moved in. There was hope that Yolmer Sanchez would be the upset this year, a player not originally supposed to be part of the Sox upswing, could carve himself out a role when the games matter again. Yolmer didn’t really do that, but he might not have lost out totally either. Let’s run it.

2019 Stats

149 games, 555 PA

.252/.318/.321

7.9 BB%  21.1 K%

74 wRC+  .281 wOBA  .638 OPS

7.0 Defensive Runs Saved  1.0 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Coming into the season, the hope must’ve been that after two full seasons on the Southside and entering his prime years at 27, Yolmer would see a jump in his offense to go with his above-average defense. And hey, his walks improved! That’s like, something, right? Sadly, the rest of his offense collapsed.

Two years ago, Yolmer managed 12 homers and a .400+ slugging, which for a third middle-infielder with a plus-glove would be almost a bonus. However, even with the flubber-ball in use this season, Yolmer homered exactly twice and slugged .321, which is like Patches and Poor Violet porous. Worse yet, Yolmer had a sub-30% hard-contact rate, so you can’t even argue a shred of bad luck for him. The mud is getting deeper here.

There was a difference in approach for Yolmer this year, as he was focused on going up the middle and the opposite way. Or he just couldn’t catch up to a fastball, your pick. But for a hitter like Yolmer who isn’t hitting the ball very hard, going up the middle and the other way can lead to even more soft contact and easy grounders and flares to a severely unimpressed and bored right or left fielder.

Another big difference for Yolmer this year was he simply couldn’t handle fastballs, and if you can’t do that you’re pissing up a rope. He hit .295 on fastballs in 2018, and that dropped to .201 this year. His work on everything else was acceptable-to-better, but if you can’t deal with a fastball that’s all you’re going to get, because most every pitcher in the Majors can execute a fastball (unless you’re MY GUY Dillon Maples).

As a left-handed hitter. Yolmer developed a hole in the upper part of the zone, which again, can quickly become death. For the visually-inclined:

Yolmer also saw huge jumps in the amount of whiffs at the top of the zone either middle or inside as a lefty. Whiffs above the zone you can live with. In the zone, well, you’re basically signed on for a pretty shitty year. Which is what Yolmer got. It was also a problem right-handed as well. Still, Yolmer was able to handle fastballs much better from the right side, hitting .317 against them then. He also had a an even 100 wRC+ as a righty, which may indicate where his future is.

Still, there’s nothing wrong with Yolmer’s glove, which is probably going to keep him in a job somewhere. Of all qualified second basemen, Yolmer had the best DRS in the American League and only trailed Kolten Wong in the whole of MLB. Considering he can fill in at third too when needed, he’s a good glove to have. Especially for a Sox team that could get a little goofy defensively.

Contract: Arbitration eligible, projected for $6.2M

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: That arbitration figure is getting awfully high for a player that appears more and more to be glove only and is about to have his full-time job taken by Nick Madrigal. Which would make him an excellent candidate for a non-tender. He would be a nice security blanket late in games, but are you paying over $6M for that? Seems a stretch. Which sucks, because every team needs a guy with some goofy eyewear.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: David Bote

By Sam Fels 1754 0

It’s funny that a bench player generates so much debate amongst a fanbase. Maybe it’s a result of signing a unique and somewhat unprecedented extension before the season. Maybe it’s just that David Bote was forced into more action than was ever planned thanks to Ben Zobrist’s four-month journey to catch the General Sherman. In the end, David Bote ended up being what David Bote was always intended to be: a pretty decent bench player. And he could be again.

2019 Stats

127 games, 356 PA

.257/.362/.422

12.4 BB%  26.1 K%

106 wRC+ .338 wOBA  .785 OPS

-1.4 Defensive Runs Saved  1.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: The season started for Bote when he signed a five-year extension that averages out to about $3M a year, though the actual salary escalates every season. It’s rare, maybe even unheard of, for a role player to sign an extension before even hitting arbitration. Or more to the point, it’s rare for a team to agree to it. It was Bote’s idea, and you can see why. What did the Cubs get out of it?

Well, you have to look past the contract a bit. One, Bote had been a loyal soldier, who’d been in the minors for six years before making his debut in 2018. It’s not necessarily a bad thing to show all the other guys in that spot that if you keep working, and stick with it, the Cubs will reward you. Second, Bote is a player who took to changes the Cubs wanted him to make because he was hitting the ball extremely hard in the minors but almost always on the ground. He took off after the changes, and again, it’s not a bad thing to show the rest of your system that if you listen and take notes and do the things they tell you, you’ll get rewarded. Whatever, Bote’s salary isn’t breaking the structure here or anything.

The original plan for Bote would have been to cycle in occasionally at second, third when Bryant went to the outfield, and probably start no more than two-three times a week. If that. But that all got blown up when Zobrist first didn’t hit at all, and then left the team. That made Bote essentially the starting second baseman, not something that was ever in the design.

And much like 2018, Bote started out really hot, with a 127 wRC+ in March and April, and an acceptable 106 in May. But also like 2018, there was a period where it felt like the league figured out that if you didn’t throw him low fastballs, you would get him out. He was awful in June and July, but closed hard in August and September, mostly through walking a ton (21% in August, 17% in September). He also slugged .565 in August, so he recovered or discovered something.

Perhaps what confounded Joe Maddon and the Cubs a bit is that Bote was reverse-split this season. 115 wRC+ and a.349 wOBA against righties, 80 and .296 against lefties. Which kind of combines with Bote doing better and better work as the season went along on breaking balls, but ones that broke away from him. And he actually ended up struggling on fastballs as the season went on.

Bote seemed to be concentrating on getting the ball in the air more, and he did better work up in the zone this year than last. It cost him so hard contact though, as his exit velocity went from averaging over 90 MPH last year to just 87 MPS this year. But his line-drive rate went up five points, and his launch-angle doubled. The dream would be if he could ever blend the two, and the Cubs might be inclined to think he can.

The problem for Golden Years here is that he makes contact way too infrequently. It’s below 70%, which is miles away from league-average. And the Cubs are going to be seeking contact wherever they can get it. Much like Happ, Bote can miss in the zone, which is something the Cubs are going to have to find a way to lessen. And seeing as how Bote will be 27 next year, the room for chance and improvement isn’t as large as it would be for a younger player. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

Defensively, Bote was mostly fine at second and better at third, his natural position. He could have gotten the Cubs out of more games at short to give Javy a rest than Maddon ever tried, but that’s not a huge cudgel to bash Maddon with. His versatility is probably what will keep him around.

Contract: Signed through 2024 for a total of $15M, two team-option years after at $7M per

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Considering he only makes $960K next year, there would be no reason to not have him back. And the only way you’d lose him now is via trade, and even in that he’d probably be something of a throw-in. Or a very minor deal returning maybe a reliever? But there’s no need. The plan is likely to just keep second base warm until Nico Hoerner is ready to take over full-time, be that April or June. Bote and Happ can certainly give you league average production for a month or two while waiting, and then be more than serviceable bench players after that. Obviously the trap door to that strategy is if Hoerner never claims the spot, and Bote and Happ are left staring at each other for a whole season there. Assuming both are here.

Bote walks a ton, so that mitigates some of his swing-and-miss ways a bit. If he can find a way to make more contact in the zone–he was another who eschewed going the opposite way and probably needs more of that–as well as rediscovering some of his hard-contact, he has the chance to be a real weapon. You can do a hell of a lot worse than Bote as a fifth or sixth infielder.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Ben Zobrist

By Sam Fels 1508 0

Most of this is going to be incomplete, as Zobrist had a strange ol’ season that only saw him play two months, the first and last. We don’t need to wade into why that was, so we’ll just get the on-field stuff out of the way.

2019 Stats

47 games, 176 PA

.260/.358/.313

1 HR  24 RBI

13.1 BB% . 13.6 K%

85 wRC+  .303 wOBA  .871 OPS

2.4 Defensive Runs Saved  0.2 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It’s nearly impossible to judge Zobrist’s 2019. It would be hard for anyone to miss the middle four months of the season at any age and then be productive in September, much less at 38. If he had simply been injured, not too much would have been expected of Zoby 18 and it would have been seen as the Hail Mary that it was to think he could help goose the lineup. Because it was something of a weird, personal leave there was a little more hope attached to it. But it was still the same task, and for the most part, Zo just wasn’t up to it.

He still took his walks, and he still had very good ABs, which he could probably do until he’s in his 60s if he so desired. But he showed none of the power that made a brief comeback in 2018 with reduced playing time. And without even the occasional double, Zobrist is a slap-hitting middle infielder with no speed and a barely average glove. That doesn’t get you a lot. Again, after missing that much time and doing very little, it was always going to be a longshot for him to find much else.

Perhaps the Cubs missed his presence in the dugout and the clubhouse more than we knew. While he’s never been a vocal guy, Zobrist was clearly very much liked and respected by his teammates and maybe he would have made more players answer for their looseness during the season in the field or on the bases. His approach at the plate certainly could have been copied more often, that’s for sure.

Still, Zobrist’s absence, which could not have been planned for, forced the Cubs to throw David Bote out at second far more than they would have wanted, and to keep trying science experiments like Addison Russell or Robel Garcia or Nico Hoerner there. The plan was almost certainly for Zobrist and Bote to split most of the ABs there during the year, which got torn up. Certainly Zobrist has every right to do what he needs to do for his well-being, but the Cubs front office can’t be blamed for having to come up with that solution on the fly. Of course, they used the freed up money to sign Craig Kimbrel…which worked out great and no one disagrees.

Contract: Free agent.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Well, it won’t be a boot in the ass for the only World Series MVP in the team’s history and owner of the single biggest hit in the team’s history (and probably biggest play in Chicago sports history, if we’re honest). Even though Zobrist insisted he wants to keep playing, it won’t be here. He probably will hit for slightly more power if he does continue and plays a full year, but at 39 it won’t be much. He doesn’t kill you at second but that versatility he used to have that made him one of the more valuable players in the league is pretty much restricted to second and left now. The Cubs probably don’t want to do much more than hold second warm until Hoerner is ready to take over full-time midway through next year (unless he just takes it in spring training).

You could see a scenario where if Zobrist is willing to take a severe pay-cut and be happy with a bench role, filling in at second and left once or twice or week or so and giving you a good pinch-hit at-bat most games, the Cubs might consider it. Whether he stays or goes, his name will live a long time in these parts and he was one of the better free agent signings the Cubs made. Zobes rarely let you down and did just about everything correctly. You can go a long way with players like that. The Cubs did.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Jose Abreu

By Andy Jonathan 1692 0

2019 Stats

.284/.330/.503

33 HR 123 RBI

5.2 BB% 21.9 K%

.344 wOBA 117 wRC+ .833 OPS

-4 Defensive Runs Saved

 

Tell Me A Story: It’s kind of hard to believe that this was the final season of Jose Abreu’s initial contract with the White Sox. When he was signed in the 2013 offseason I was ecstatic that the team was not only spending (at the time) big money on a free agent, but that they were dipping heavily into the Cuban pool which was rapidly becoming the best international market around. It seemed the Sox were ready to get serious about taking back the AL central from the Indians and the Royals with this move. Ohhh how wrong I was.

Regardless of how those seasons turned out, Jose Abreu has been worth every penny of that first contract with the Sox. He’s generated 21.2 WAR in his time with the team, never been lower than 115 in wRC+, and if you throw out the 2018 season (far and away his worst, on a terrible ass team with no protection) he’s never had less than 100 RBI or 25 HR in a year. He was also Rookie of the Year in 2014 and been an All Star three separate times.

So what did he do this season? Well despite setting a career high in strikeouts this season and enduring a pretty rough stretch in June and July, Abreu still managed to post the highest RBI total of his career, in addition to his 3rd-highest amount of extra base hits. Just another day at the office for the most consistent producer the Sox have had since Frank Thomas manned 1B.

Back during his midsummer swoon I found myself preparing to say goodbye to Abreu at the end of the season. It seemed a foregone conclusion that him and the Sox would be parting ways both due to his age rising and his production seemingly dropping off a cliff. How foolish I was, as once the page turned to August, Abreu returned to his uber-productive ways by slashing .324/.386/.946 the remainder of the season. He also hit a wacky .338 with runners in scoring position, which was top 15 in the league for that stat.

The thing that really stands out is most of his contact numbers are in line with his career averages. His line drive rate was only .7% above his average, and his hard hit rating about the same. The only interesting thing is his pull rate jumped almost 5% from 39% to 44% which may have been part of the reason for his mid-season dip in production as when Abreu is locked in at the plate, he hits to all fields of the park. Even his BABIP was in line with his career averages, so it’s not like he was the beneficiary of good luck at the plate. All in all, Abreu did this season what he’s done every season. He’s the Swiss watch of AL first basemen, and a model of consistency.

The other thing about Jose Abreu is his effect on the younger Cuban players in the locker room. Both Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada have been quoted about looking up to Abreu and learning from his experience both as a baseball player and an immigrant from Cuba. In addition, Abreu does a lot of charity work through his organization “Abreu’s Amigos” which does outreach work to kids with special needs in the community. Check out this link from the blog WhiteSoxPride if you want to have your cold, dead Sox Fan heart warmed up a few degrees.

Contract: Free Agent in 2020

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: As I said above, in the middle part of the year the answer here would have been a boot in the ass (or more likely a pat on the back and a handshake. Jose is too classy for anything else). Then August and September happened, and he lead the team and the entire AL in RBIs while knocking 33 dingers out of the park. All of this, combined with his role as mentor of The Future™ of the Sox AND his stated desire to continue with the team and see the rebuild through all but guarantees his return.

Honestly, that’s how it should be. Are his skills going to decline as he heads into his mid 30s? Most likely, though I wouldn’t put it past him to continue being the metronome of 1st basemen. Will he still be able to play 1st base as his back ages more? Probably, but age comes for us all in different ways and times (See; Seabrook, Brent).

Jose Abreu deserves the chance to see this rebuild through to the other side and get a taste of the postseason. He’s been a model soldier to an organization that’s done some ridiculously dumb shit in his time with the Sox, and has been a quiet clubhouse leader. He may not take a large discount to come back, but I would think an additional three years at his current salary of $16 million would be enough to get the job done. Rick Hahn has pretty much all but guaranteed they would be able to get a deal done, and I would think it would be in place before the winter meetings in a month and a half. Let’s be honest, you want to see Abreu batting in the middle of a lineup that includes Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and (hopefully) JD Martinez or someone like him (Grandal). He deserves it, we deserve it, and I’d be shocked if it doesn’t happen.