Baseball

Series Recap – White Sox Lose 2 of 3 to Red Sox: Complete Meltdown Avoided

By Andy Jonathan 1095 0

Game 1: White Sox 5 – Red Sox 6

Game 2: White Sox 3 – Red Sox 6

Game 3: White Sox 8 – Red Sox 7

 

I had a good portion of this recap typed up and ready to go after Alex Colome blew the save in the 8th inning today, little did I know that Jose Abreu still had one in the chamber to save the day with a blast over the green monster.  That dinger salvaged what was shaping up to be a disastrous 3 game stint against the BoSox.  Up until that point, the bullpen was burning through goodwill like it was an open methane pipeline on the side of a landfill.  In addition to that, it looks like Tim Anderson is going to be on the shelf for a good amount of time after a high ankle sprain Tuesday night.  Hopefully you weren’t on Twitter, because a phalanx of trolls came oozing out of the sewers to proclaim that Timmy is getting what he deserves for daring to have fun playing baseball.  Oh, and Moncada got drilled on the knee by Sale and left the game too.  Things don’t get any easier this weekend with a series against the Twonkies looming.

 

To the bullets:

Numbers Don’t Lie

-So the bullpen seems to have reverted to being shitty again.  The White Sox had leads in every one of these games, and in every instance the pen coughed it up.  Ruiz, Marshall and Minaya were particularly heinous this series, giving up 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings between the 3 of them.  Fry and Colome were unable to keep the BoSox at bay in the 8th inning today, getting beat by themselves and a boneheaded play by Jose Rondon, who was filling in for Moncada at 3rd.  On the plus side, Carson Fulmer looked more than serviceable Tuesday night working solidly through the first two innings of the bullpen game, striking out 3.  Hopefully this is just a blip on the radar before the pen settles back down to the more efficient version that had been showing up before.

-The defense was pretty abysmal as well.  The aforementioned blunder by Rondon, who decided to try and come home to peg Eduardo Nunez (who was halfway to the dugout by the time the ball got to McCann) on a ground ball instead of taking the easy out at first.  Tim Anderson in game 1 trying for the cross body throw instead of going to 3rd to try and save the game except Moncada really wasn’t covering the bag so whatever.  Speaking of not covering, Reynaldo Lopez threw one in the dirt that McCann had trouble with so instead of covering home like a big boy he got mad at himself and hung his head while Devers motored home uncontested.  Not a good look all around.

-The hitting, however, looked very good all series.  Realistically if you score 16 runs in a 3 game series you should probably end up with more than one win, but see the section above about the bullpen.

-Losing Tim Anderson hurts.  Just when it seemed like we had finally gotten rid of Cordell in the starting lineup with the arrival of Jon Jay, this forces Leury to SS for the foreseeable future, bringing Cordell back into the CF picture.  Things get even ickier if Yoan is forced to miss any time from his kneecap getting zapped by Sale today.  Maybe this means the return of Palkamania, but with Collins already up and not playing because of Alonso reasons I can’t see that being much help.

-Speaking of that scenario, why in the frozen fuck do you bring up Collins and then sit him for the gigantic waste of space Yonder Alonso?  Just DFA him already, his OPS is less than Nick Madrigal’s batting average in AA.

-Favorite Son Lucas Giolito looked better this time around than he did against the Cubs.  He was definitely getting squeezed by home plate ump Bill Welke, who’s zone was only slightly better than the one in Giolito’s previous start.  He seemed to be overthrowing his fastball, resulting in a definite loss of the zone at times and netting him 4 walks on the evening to go with 7 Ks.  He mentioned his body flying open during this start, which was a concern for him all last season.  Hopefully McCann and him can come up with a solution quickly, as the Twins aren’t going to give him much of a break.

-Speaking of the Twins series, the Sox have a “TBA” starter listed for Friday night’s game.  While I’d love to see Dylan Cease show up and mow down some Twins, I can’t see the Sox making this his first MLB start after his last few subpar outings in Charlotte.  More likely than not we are looking at another bullpen game, which is not even a coinflip the way some of them are throwing right now.  If they DO have a pen game on Friday night, I’d like to see Fulmer get more than 2 innings this time around.  It’s not like he’s close to being the worst starter they’ve thrown out there the past few weeks.

Onward…

Baseball

F***in’ Quintana, Man…

By Sam Fels 1503 0

There’s always a Cub, for however long a period of time during a season, is that portion’s goat or target of ire or villain. For the past few years, Jason Heyward has taken that belt for most of the time. John Lackey was on there for a bit. Addison Russell probably has permanent claim to it. Kyle Schwarber has been there. The pen as a whole, sometimes Maddon, this could go on for a while.

At the moment, it’s Jose Quintana. Some of that is his doing, as his last six starts haven’t been particularly pretty. And some of that isn’t, as it’s been accentuated by Eloy Jimenez’s game-winning homer (even though Eloy wouldn’t have a place to play here but whatever), or that the money saved on Q’s contract was used to buy Yu Darvish, who is only just now seemingly getting going, or that Darvish’s injury problems led to the option being picked up on Cole Hamels, which stripped cash from everything else. None of that has anything to do with Quintana, but he’s also not going to duck all of the annoyance people have about some or all of that. It isn’t fair, but no one deals in fair in sports. Especially when you have bullhorns like David Kaplan fanning the flames for their own enjoyment.

So what’s the deal, here? What’s been going on with Quintana in his last six starts?

I don’t know if it is important, but I think it’s important, to point out that in the eight starts before this stretch, Q carried a 2.34 ERA, with just a tick below 3-to-1 K/BB ratio. He was the Cubs best starter for a few trips through the rotation there. While he might not be that guy, he’s also not this guy. Perhaps the truth is right in the middle, though I tend to believe it’s closer to those eight good starts than these six bad ones.

So we’ll split the season right at May 25th, between those two stretches. I’ve remarked in series wraps that he’s gone away from his change of late, and that is true. He was throwing it 11 or 12% of the time in April and May, and that’s down to nine in June. By strict counts, he would throw it between 12-15 times per game in the first half of this season completed, and he’s only done that once in the past six starts (at the Dodgers, and I don’t know if we should count anything that happens against that collection of mutants).

When Q doesn’t throw his change much, he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, which makes him pretty predictable. But the problem here is…that change-up hasn’t been very good of late. To wit…

In the season’s first 10 appearances, Q got 27% whiffs on the swings taken on the change. Since, that’s down to 9%. The fouls are up 12% too. Of the change-ups put in play, those first 10 appearances saw them only become line drives at a quarter of the time. In the past six starts, that’s doubled to 50%. Batters were hitting .294 off it then, which isn’t great. It’s .500 in this stretch, which REEL BAD. So did something happen to it?

According to BrooksBaseball.net, it has lost some of its horizontal movement, or what you might think of as “fade,” as on a change from a lefty it will fade away from righties or to the arm-side of Quintana. Here:

So in the early point of the season, he was getting five or six inches of fade, and is this last bit that’s down to four and a half or so. That’s certainly enough to keep the pitch on bats and on barrels of bats. It’s the same story with vertical movement, as the change is getting less drop than it was in his first 10 starts, and if your change isn’t sinking, that’s going to be a problem. And it has been.

You might think this has something to do with release point, but Q’s release point on it has bounced between 5.9 feet and 6.5 feet all season, so it’s hard to pinpoint on that. Same with his horizontal release point. So it could just be a feel thing. As far as how it all pans out, here’s the difference in locations between the two segments of the season with his change:

It’s not a huge difference, but it is a difference. From being consistently below the zone where you get weak contact and whiffs and fool people, it’s staying in the zone where it can still be reached and reached well.

This probably isn’t everything. Q has seen a slight dip in his velocity. Before the split on this, his fastball never averaged below 91.5 MPH. In the six starts after the split, it’s only been above that once. It’s not fallen off a table or anything, but the loss of dip and fade on his change could also coincide with a little less “finish” on his pitches. But that’s just a guess.

Hopefully it’s something in his mechanics and not something physical, and he can correct that to get his fastball back just a touch and a little more finish on the change. It doesn’t feel like it’s all that far away, but a few more starts like the last and it just might.

Baseball

Series Preview – Braves vs. Cubs: Clearing The Hand Wall

By Sam Fels 1332 0

vs.

RECORDS: Braves 46-32   Cubs 42-35

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 7:05, Thursday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, WGN Wednesday

BABY DRIVER EXTRAS: Talking Chop

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Julio Teheran vs. Jon Lester

Max Fried vs. Adbert Alzolay

Dallas Keuchel vs. Yu Darvish

TBD vs. Tyler Chatwood

PROBABLE BRAVES LINEUP

Ronald Acuna Jr. – CF

Dansby Swanson – SS

Freddie Freeman – 1B

Josh Donaldson – 3B

Nick Markakis – RF

Austin Riley – LF

Ozzie Albies – 2B

Tyler Flowers – C

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – CF

David Bote – 2B

Carlos Gonzalez – RF

 

So, you’ve kind of biffed a long homestand, and now you need to ace the last series to have a successful one. Nothing better than having to face the National League’s hottest team to do it, right? The Braves are 16-5 in June, have surged to the top of the NL East and have kind of hid from the Phillies with a 6.5-game gap. So that’s who the Cubs have to grab at least three of four from to claim what they should have from 10 games at the Friendly Confines.

So how did the Braves pull an Easy Goer on the outside in the division this month? Well, pretty much everything. The offense has gone plaid, led by Freddie Freeman, who’s got a 1.157 OPS in the month. Ozzie Albies has recovered from a slow start, and Tyler Flowers has been mashing as well. In fact, the only two regulars who don’t have a .900+ OPS in June are Dansby Swanson and Nick Markakis. So yeah, that’s six guys tearing the ass off the baseball the past three weeks.

The rotation hasn’t been far behind, though it has some injury issues. Kevin Gausman has landed on the shelf, and Mike Soroka was pulled from his last start. Given that he’s only 21, any tweak to his arm is going to be treated like ebola. Mike Foltynewicz was so bad this year he was sent down. So the Braves have Teheran, Fried, and Keuchel ready to go today and a bunch of questions. The Cubs might see Touki Toussaint slide into the rotation for a bit, depending on how the injuries turn out.

The pen has been a touch rocky. Anthony Swarzak and Luke Jackson have been dominant, with the latter taking the closer’s role. Toussaint has been able to dance through the fire of his nearly five walks per nine, but that won’t last. Beyond that it’s been an adventure. Jacob Webb doesn’t strike many out nor get ground balls, but has a 1.77 ERA. One wonders just how long he can keep that up.

For the Cubs, they’ll give Alzolay his first start in the majors on Tuesday, and give Chatwood a full week before starting again on Thursday. The Cubs don’t have a day off until July 5th, so they’ll likely stick with six starters until then and keep Hendricks on ice until after the All-Star Break. Hopefully this is the start of Bote getting a run at second base with no bullshit breaks for Descalso or Russell. If we can get that, I’ll live with the Carlos Gonzalez experience.

It’s a rough week, because backing up the Braves is probably the other hottest team in the league, non-Dodgers division, in the Reds on the road. They’ve been annoying as fuck for the Cubs as is, so this week shapes up as a nasty test. Let’s get through it.

Baseball

Braves Spotlight: Stone Freeman Do What He Please

By Sam Fels 1175 0

There’s a theory floating around these days that the peak of a baseball player’s career is sliding up from 29 or 30 to 27 or so. It’s part of the reason you see more players getting called up earlier than before. The Braves themselves have Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies in the every day lineup, and they were up at 20 or 21. Austin Riley is the most recent addition this season, and he’s 22. But Freddie Freeman doesn’t seem to care at age 29, as he’s having his best season.

Freeman is on his way to a career-high in homers, as he’s got 21 already and that number is 34. He has his second-highest batting average, best on-base, and by far his best slugging. The latter might be helped by the baseballs hopped up on goofballs this year, but hey, everyone’s playing with the same ball.

How’s Freeman doing it? Well he’s not getting particularly lucky, as he’s always been a line-drive hitter who runs a hot BABIP and this season is no different. Still, Freeman is rocking a 52.7% hard-contact rate, the highest of his career by a mile and only bested by resident alien Cody Bellinger. If you’re going by Statcast, his barrel rate is a career-high and his exit velocity is the highest of his career as well. So why is Freeman suddenly hitting the ball so hard?

Well, he’s being pickier than in a long while. He’s swinging at just 52.1% of the pitches he’s seen, the lowest since 2015. He’s not chasing out of the zone, as he’s swing-rate at pitches out of the zone is the second-lowest of his career. If he’s only sticking to strikes, that’s a lot more pitches he’s going to turn into his patented liner.

Freeman has also been murder on curveballs this year, hitting them to the tune of .427, though not for much power.

Freeman has been much better at the top of the zone this year. Here’s proof:

Which doesn’t leave pitchers a lot of places to go on Freeman.

All of it leaves Freeman on course for his highest WAR season, which is 6.0 a few years ago and he’s already at 3.2 before the break. It’s going to be hard for him to get MVP consideration considering what Yelich and Bellinger is doing, and 1st basemen tend to get punished by the defensive metrics. Still, he’s a major weapon in the Braves lineup which needs it. Albies has struggled, and Donaldson only got going in the last couple weeks (after yours truly turned down a trade for him in his fantasy league, natch).

But with Freeman mashing and the pitching staff nails, it’s been enough for the Braves to surge to the top of the division and open up some distance for a second-straight playoff appearance. Freeman has always made a great comparison with Anthony Rizzo, and funny enough they’ll both hit the free agent market in 2021. Wonder if the Cubs and Braves will be waiting for each other to figure out those markets.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Red Sox: Everybody Tuck Your Pants Into Your Sox

By Sam Fels 1118 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 36-38   Red Sox 42-37

GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday 6:10, Wednesday 12:05

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday and Wednesday

YOUR SITUATION WOULD BE CONCURRENTLY IMPROVED: Over The Monster

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Lucas Giolito vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

TBA vs. David Price

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Chris Sale

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Tim Anderson – SS

Jose Abreu – 1B

James McCann – C

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Jon Jay – RF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Yonder Alonso – DH

Jose Rondon – 2B

PROBABLE RED SOX LINEUP

Mookie Betts – RF

Andrew Benintendi – LF

J.D. Martinez – DH

Rafael Devers – 3B

Xander Bogaerts – SS

Brock Holt – 2B

Michael Chavis – 1B

Jackie Bradley Jr. – CF

Christian Vazquez – C

 

The White Sox continue their road sojourn, which makes total sense by going from Wrigley to Dallas to Boston, where they’ll serve as the pre-London offering to the Red Sox, who can’t quite seem to get going yet this year. And they may be running out of time.

The Sox are eight games behind the Yankees, and considering all the injuries the Yanks have had that are starting to clear up, it’s hard to envision them playing at a pace at any point that would make them an easier catch. Which means the Red Sox are going to have to get atmospheric, which they were last year but can’t seem to find this year. And while it’s easy to say they’ll just get the coin-flip game, they’re not really clear of Cleveland, Texas, or Oakland to say that’s a sure thing either.

So what’s up here? It’s nothing major so much as everything not being quite as tuned as it was last year. Well, there’s one major problem but we’ll get to that. The offense is good, and in terms of on-base and weighted on-base still one of the AL’s best. It hasn’t resulted in as many runs as you might think, as they’re only fifth in that. We went over how Mookie isn’t getting everything to fall this year, but that’s not the only culprit. J.D. Martinez has struggled to hit the heights of last year as well, Mitch Moreland has been hurt turning first base into something of an abyss, and Benintendi has slipped a touch as well. It’s a good lineup still, it’s just not all the weapons piled on each other in Punisher-like fashion as it was. Of late, Brock Holt, Bradley, and Bogaerts have turned it on to at least get the Carmines over .500.

As for the rotation, the fifth spot has been a wandering bag of suck since Eovaldi went on the shelf, but you can live with that. Sale has gotten past his early-season whathaveyas to be his normal self and is striking out nearly 14 hitters per nine innings. Price has been back to the form the Sox signed four years ago with an emphasis on grounders. I’m fairly sure Rick Porcello is nothing special but he seems to grind out wins for them, and Eduardo Rodriguez takes up space. Sadly for the Pale Hose, they’ll get both Price and Sale on this one.

The pen was a real problem early in the season for the BoSox, but has straightened out to the point they’re top five in ERA and FIP from the relievers in the AL. Barnes, Workman, and Walden have been strikeout weapons, though the first two have some serious walk issues. Same goes for Heath Hembree. There’s been more traffic than anyone is comfortable with for sure.

For the Chicago version of the Sox, they’ll welcome Jon Jay into the lineup for the first time since he got hurt trying to recruit Manny Machado and instead sold him on San Diego. You might think that’ll end the cavalcade of dunces in right, but Jay himself is sort of a dunce so don’t count on it. His reinstatement caused the Odrisamer Desgpaigne era to end, and we know you’re heartbroken. That leaves two gaps in the Sox rotation, and no starter for Tuesday, so we’ll find out with the rest of you we guess.

 

Baseball

Red Sox Spotlight: Mookie Was There, But Now He’s Not

By Sam Fels 1172 0

Mookie Betts accomplished what seemingly was impossible last season. Deservedly winning the MVP over Mike Trout. Because honestly, when Trout’s healthy, there shouldn’t be a debate. But Betts collected 10.4 fWAR last year, highest of anyone. It’s actually the second time Betts has been in Trout-territory, as he was around there in 2016 but Trout took home the award. The past four seasons, Trout and Betts are in their own stratus, as each have collected over 25 fWAR (Trout a pretty unconscious 31), and only two other players even have 20 (Altuve and Lindor).

Unlike Trout though, Mookie hasn’t stayed there this season. Betts has seen a 79-point drop in his average, a 50-point drop in his on-base percentage, and a 157-point drop in his slugging. It’s one of the reasons the Carmines have hung around .500 and are looking up at the Rays and Yankees after dusting them in the AL East last year. So what’s the deal?

Well, honestly, it’s nothing that Betts is doing. He’s actually walking more this season and striking out a touch less. What he’s not getting is any luck. Which we pretty much know isn’t infinite, because Betts got all the luck last year.

In 2018, Betts’s BABIP (say that five times fast) was .368. That was third-highest of any qualified hitter, behind teammate J.D. Martinez and the NL MVP Christian Yelich. Those are dominant hitters, so to call them lucky is unfair, but BABIPs in the .360s or .370s clearly are an anomaly. Betts made a ton of loud contact to carry a higher-than-average BABIP, as his 44% hard-contact rate would tell you. Still, .368 is absurd.

This year, Betts is carrying a .285 BABIP, second-lowest of his career. Things are not falling in. Yes, his contact numbers are lower. It’s a 41% hard-contact rate now. And a 19% line-drive rate instead of a 22%. If you go by Statcast, last yea his average exit velocity was 92.2 MPH, and this year it’s 90.4. According to that, he’s below what he should be in terms of slugging and weighted on-base with the contact he’s making, but not by all that much.

As far as how he’s being attacked, there isn’t too much difference. He’s seeing a scosh (technical term) more fastballs, but not really worth remarking on. Again, it might be a luck thing. Last year, Betts slaughtered sinkers to the tune of a .449 average. This year, it’s .267 with a .257 BABIP instead of a .457 one. But he actually is hitting them for line-drives more often. He’s also been woeful on cutters this year, hitting .154 on them after .355 last year. It seems like pitchers have made one change, and that’s only staying to the outside on them with Betts.

Because of that and more Betts has made a concerted effort to go the other way, but he’s never had a lot of power the other way. He’s only slugging .354 when going the other way this year, and even last year when he was crushing everything it was only .429.

Which makes for an itchy debate for the Red Sox front office, as Betts only has one year left in arbitration. They gave him $20M this year, and you’d think that’ll be $25 or so next year. But is Betts a $25-30M player every year as he was in ’18 and ’16? Or is he 5-WAR player he was in ’15, ’17, and this year? He’s not worth a Trout contract, but then who is? The market is certainly sliding the Red Sox way on this, of course.

Basically, the lesson here is that you can rent in Trout-land, but it’s nearly impossible to own.

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Lose 2 of 3 Against Rangers: SSDD

By Andy Jonathan 1124 0

Game 1: Sox 5 – Rangers 4 (10 Innings)

Game 2: Sox 5 – Rangers 6

Game 3: Sox 4 – Rangers 7

 

Same shit, different day.  That’s the only way you can sum up the stream of drizzling shits the White Sox starting rotation oozes out series after series.  If Giolito isn’t pitching the Sox offense is going to have to carry the day, unless it’s the 1 out of 5 starts where Nova or Lopez is useful.  I’ve seen 5000% more Odrisamer Despagine starts then I’ve ever cared to in my entire life, and yet I know Hahn and Renteria are going to trot him out there again to kick off the Twins series next weekend.  I’d be willing to bet Vegas sets the over/under for that game somewhere around 18 runs to start.

I understand that injuries are a thing, and the Sox staff has been hit with more than their fair share of them this season, but so have other teams.  The Yankees have had every single one of their starters hurt at one point or another this season, and yet their games seem to be eminently watchable.  Can you imagine the frothing fury of the New York media if Brian Cashman signed Despagine for any reason OTHER than to carry buckets of sunflower seeds to the bullpen?  The New York Post would spontaneously combust in people’s hands (which is probably best for everybody involved).  Yet here the Sox sit, Hahn never really having to answer to anyone as to why he thinks this rotation is acceptable.   He gets to hide in the shadow of the North Siders, and we are stuck watching it.  On top of that the Hawks traded Pittsburgh for a cantaloupe on skates, and the Predators sent PK Subban to New Jersey for some seashells and a bottle of isopropyl alcohol.  Sigh.

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

-At least there was some fun stuff this series.  Zack Collins finally got to start a game, and rewarded Renteria with a 3 run shot to dead center field.  He waited until Jurado made a mistake with a 2-2 slider and stepped into it for an exciting start to his career.  It was his only hit of the series, but at least he made it count.  His first time behind the dish was catching for Despagine, so I guess the jury is going to remain out on his ability to catch a major league starter for a bit longer.

-Tim Anderson seems to be heating up again, hitting safely in all 3 games and absolutely pummeling the Rangers pitching staff in game 2 to the tune of 4 RBIs.  He only sees about 8 pitches a game, but if he wants to swing like Javy Baez and he can have the same results I’m all for it.  Like Sam said in our round table for the Cubs/Sox series, there are going to peaks and valleys to players who treat plate discipline like it’s pizza in St. Louis, but as long as the peaks are as high as Timmy’s have been so far it’s gonna be fun.

-Ryan Cordell is nice and all, but he’s not a major league starter.  As soon as they’re able to voodoo Jon Jay back to life, he needs to shamble his ass out to right field because I’m kinda done with Cordell.  Bryce Harper woulda looked pretty good out there too, but whatever.

-Don’t look now but Jace Fry and Kelvin Herrera have a pulse.  Both have looked pretty solid over the last few appearances, and Herrera even scored the win in game 1.  Combined with Colome and Bummer, the back end of the Sox bullpen is looking pretty tasty right now.

-Reynaldo Lopez gave up a bundle of runs early then settled down to a decent line in night one.  His changeup was not locating well, unless you were sitting in right center field and looking for a souvenir, but he was able to (mostly) use his fastball to keep the Rangers off balance.  I don’t know quite what it is, but if Lopez can get through the first inning OK it usually results in a pretty solid start for him.  Maybe lay off the monster energy drink in his pregame routine, I dunno.  Either way, the Sox need to see more of him if they’re gonna pencil him in as the 5th starter for the 2021 world series team.

-Yonder Alonso fucking sucks, and from here on out he should never start over Zack Collins unless they accidentally leave Collins on the bus and he gets stuck in Texas.  Maybe not even then.

 

Next up is a trip to Beantown.  If anyone happens to see Brad Marchand sitting in/next to a dumpster please send pictures.

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Mets: Pulled Back From The Edge

By Sam Fels 1262 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 7, Mets 4

Game 2 Box Score: Mets 5, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Mets 10, Cubs 2

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 5, Mets 3

There have been a handful of times this year, going against my try-to-keep-calm nature about a baseball season, where I’ve been on the precipice of getting worried or upset about this team and thinking it might need bigger changes than I thought. Or giving up on any sort of glory in October. And then right about as I’m going to Tommen myself over the edge, they’ve pulled a rabbit. Splitting with the Sox and Mets isn’t exactly acceptable, but losing three of four to the Mets would have been far worse. Now you’re only one game off where you should have been on this homestand really, and a series win over the admittedly molten Braves probably gets you there. There’s still much to complain about, but now they’re just complaints instead of outright beefs.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Javy Baez’s last two ABs are the difference between the raw variety show he used to be and All-Star he is now. He was completely overmatched by deGrom in his first two PAs, though a lot of hitters were. He couldn’t pick up the slider and he wasn’t getting within a foot of it. Then in his third AB he went with a plan, fought off some tough pitches, and muscled a single through the middle. Gained a little confidence, and even being down 0-2 to Lugo didn’t phase him. And then he finally remembered right field is legal, and pulled his team’s ass out of a sling. I shouldn’t doubt him.

-If you do want to worry, here’s Jose Quintana for you. It was only four starts ago that he did throw seven against the Rockies, but walks in the last three have been a problem. Yesterday he was wild in the zone, and though I thought he had some rough BABIP luck with Jeff McNeil basically cricket-ing a double for two runs, he fell apart after that. I think it’s just a blip, but when he got in trouble yesterday he abandoned his change. He can’t do that, because then he’s just two pitches. Even if he doesn’t have a feel for it, he’s got to find it. Hopefully back to basics soon.

-I’ve had enough of McNeil and Alonso for a while, thank you.

-Alzolay’s debut was certainly enticing, and no one should get ahead of themselves. But he does present some more interesting options, and one of them the Cubs will use this week is six starters to keep everyone fresh. When Hendricks returns he could again be what Chatwood and Montgomery could have been, a multi-inning weapon out of the pen. He was going to be on an innings-limit anyway. We’re a long way from that, but it’s at least something to get excited about.

-Friday’s loss is the one that hurts. Sometimes it’s not your day and you get stuffed like Saturday. But Friday was there for them. Yu was itchy again, there seems to be this fascination with getting Brach right even though he probably won’t be here next week, and then continued use of Montgomery as a LOOGY which he’s never been. It’s not like McNeil crushed that ball off of him or anything but Monty isn’t missing a ton of bats either. Give him a clean inning, or two, or three. It’s what he’s built to do. He’s not a high-leverage one-hitter dude. Add up enough games you feel like you should have gotten and you’re in the muck with the Brewers and Cardinals. And no one wants that.

-Bryant has two homers in June. He’s slugging .453 in the month. Are we a touch worried about either wear or the shoulder again? This seems long for a slump.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview: White Sox at Rangers – Mystery Men

By Andy Jonathan 1511 0

  VS

Records: White Sox 35-37  / Rangers 40-35

Gametimes: Friday/Saturday 7:05  Sunday 2:05

TV: NBCSN

Where The Buffalo Roam:  Lone Star Ball

Probable Starters:

Reynaldo Lopez vs Ariel Jurado

Odrisamer Despaigne vs Lance Lynn

Chevy Nova vs Adrian Simpson

PROBABLE LINEUPS:

RANGERS

  1. Shin-Soo Choo – DH
  2. Delino DeShields – CF
  3. Elvis Andrus – SS
  4. Nomar Mazara – RF
  5. Willie Calhoun – LF
  6. Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B
  7. Rougned Odor – 2B
  8. Ronald Guzman – 1B
  9. Jeff Mathis – C

 

WHITE SOX

  1. Leury Garcia – CF
  2. Tim Anderson – SS
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann (C/DH)
  5. Eloy Jimenez – LF
  6. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  7. Zack Collins (C/DH)
  8. Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
  9. Ryan Cordell (RF)

 

The Sox travel to the deep south this weekend after their backwards split with the North Siders in the middle of the week.  Down in Arlington they find a team that…should not be.  The Rangers currently sit in 2nd place in the AL West despite what was supposedly a rebuilding year for them, especially after a dead last finish the previous season.  Looking at the Rangers lineup, there really is no reason for them to be in 2nd place, or in wild card contention yet here we are.  Baseball is weird sometimes.

Their two biggest additions this past offseason were Lance Lynn and Hunter Pence, two guys who were expected to be just that.  Guys.  Position fillers until they’re either moved at the deadline for future assets, or placeholders until the next generation shows up to take their jobs.  They certainly weren’t expected to be doing what they’re currently doing.  Lance Lynn is the 2nd best pitcher in the entire league according to Fangraphs, and Hunter Pence (before he exploded his groin a few days ago) was expected to compete for an All Star spot in a crowded AL outfield.  Pence’s OBPS currently sits at a goofy .962, almost .200 points higher than his career average.  While Lynn’s peripheral stats suggest that this year might actually be sustainable, Pence’s ones really do not.

After those two, the monsters were supposed to be Joey Gallo and Elvis Andrus.  Gallo was tearing his way to an MVP level season before being felled by an oblique issue a few weeks ago.  Andrus continues to be what the Rangers hoped he would be, continuing his pseudo-breakout season from 2018.  He hits for pop, and plays well enough defense as to not be worried every time a ball shoots his way.  Shin-Soo Choo continues to be the most consistent thing about this roster, despite entering into his 37th year of existence.

The Rangers rotation is basically Lynn and Mike Minor, then a bunch of spare parts (sound familiar?). Minor is having an excellent year, and the pair of them are basically dragging the rest of the rotation into normalcy.  The bullpen is constantly in flux, as is the closer role.  Jose Leclerc was supposed to continue his breakout season from last year, but instead started off the year giving up somewhere around 389 earned runs.  Shawn Kelley has taken the reigns, but not to the point that Leclerc has been removed from the conversation.

The Sox come into the series after an ass backwards split with the Cubs that saw Ivan Nova and not Lucas Giolito hold the Cubs bats at bay.  The most concerning thing that came out of the series is that it seems Ricky Renteria is continuing his tradition of pushing his players to play through injuries.  Yoan Moncada has outright said that his back is more painful hitting from the right side, yet there he was Wednesday night being part of a double switch and attempting to bunt.  Leury Garcia is clearly nursing some type of lower body injury, as he doesn’t have his usual explosive speed and first step.  It brings to mind the dumbshittery Renteria pulled with Avi Garcia and his knee last season.

At any rate, if the Sox want to take this series the bats are going to have to be they way it’s done, as the combined ERA of all 3 Sox starters requires a TI-82 to calculate.  The Rangers lineup might not look threatening, especially missing Gallo and Pence, but they’ve been making it work all season.  Time to solve the puzzle and take 2 of 3 because you know O-Driss is gonna give up 9.

LETS GO SOX

Baseball

Rangers Spotlight: Huh?

By Andy Jonathan 1575 0

I’m gonna throw out a super weird stat for you.  Ready?  Here it goes:  Lance Lynn is currently the second best pitcher in all of baseball, according to Fangraphs.  Seriously.  If you were like me, that statement was definitely worth a double take at your computer screen.  Lynn has always been a solid, if unspectacular starter throughout his MLB career which up until recently was confined to the wastelands of St. Louis.  He debuted with somewhat of a bang in 2012, winning 18 games with a 3.78 ERA and 180 strikeouts.  That 18 wins has been the high watermark for him so far, as the closest he’s gotten since then was 15 (twice, in 2013 and 2014).  His stats have been pretty consistent along those lines, averaging somewhere between a 3.60-4.00 ERA, hovering around 170 Ks and a decent 3ish WAR.

So how has he gone from these satisfactory numbers to the more impressive ones he has this year?  Pitchers in their 7th season of playing usually don’t end up with their best seasons unless you’re Charlie Morton and the Astros have sprinkled their pixie dust on your elbow.  So is there a regression cliff ahead of this guy’s road to the AL Cy Young award?  If you look at the advanced stats you’d be surprised to see (again) that his numbers could actually stand to be a little better.  His K/9% is within his career averages, as is his BABIP and his strand rate.  His HR/FB ratio is down, but not to the point where you’d think it’s an aberration, especially with someone who’s fastball has a lot of sink on it.  So here’s where it gets kinda weird.  His FIP currently sits an entire point below his ERA, which leads you to believe that he’s not getting any help behind him, and he plays in a shit stadium for pitchers both things that are accurate.

He’s also added a few MPH to his fastball, which at his age is fairly impressive.  The other thing he’s doing is throwing the ball more consistently for strikes, cutting his walk rate by a few percent.  He’s also gotten his swinging strike rate up above 10%, which he hasn’t been able to do in half a decade.  Lynn credits the Rangers strength and conditioning coach with the increased velocity, and his ability to go deeper into games. So taking all that into account, it certainly seems like this Lance Lynn is the real deal, at least as far as I can tell looking at his advanced stats (and my fantasy baseball team ranking).  All this could be a mirage, I suppose, but the numbers don’t really support any severe regression coming.  Maybe all you have to do as a pitcher is get as far away from Imo’s Pizza as you possibly can?

The Rangers have definitely gotten themselves a steal in the offseason.  He’s certainly a major reason why Texas is in the thick of things in the AL west, and major obstacle for the Sox this weekend, especially if Leury Garcia and Yoan Moncada are hurting more than Galaxy Brain Renteria is letting on.