Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Baseball

  • Red Sox Spotlight: Mookie Was There, But Now He’s Not

    Red Sox Spotlight: Mookie Was There, But Now He’s Not

    Mookie Betts accomplished what seemingly was impossible last season. Deservedly winning the MVP over Mike Trout. Because honestly, when Trout’s healthy, there shouldn’t be a debate. But Betts collected 10.4 fWAR last year, highest of anyone. It’s actually the second time Betts has been in Trout-territory, as he was around there in 2016 but Trout took home the award. The past four seasons, Trout and Betts are in their own stratus, as each have collected over 25 fWAR (Trout a pretty unconscious 31), and only two other players even have 20 (Altuve and Lindor).

    Unlike Trout though, Mookie hasn’t stayed there this season. Betts has seen a 79-point drop in his average, a 50-point drop in his on-base percentage, and a 157-point drop in his slugging. It’s one of the reasons the Carmines have hung around .500 and are looking up at the Rays and Yankees after dusting them in the AL East last year. So what’s the deal?

    Well, honestly, it’s nothing that Betts is doing. He’s actually walking more this season and striking out a touch less. What he’s not getting is any luck. Which we pretty much know isn’t infinite, because Betts got all the luck last year.

    In 2018, Betts’s BABIP (say that five times fast) was .368. That was third-highest of any qualified hitter, behind teammate J.D. Martinez and the NL MVP Christian Yelich. Those are dominant hitters, so to call them lucky is unfair, but BABIPs in the .360s or .370s clearly are an anomaly. Betts made a ton of loud contact to carry a higher-than-average BABIP, as his 44% hard-contact rate would tell you. Still, .368 is absurd.

    This year, Betts is carrying a .285 BABIP, second-lowest of his career. Things are not falling in. Yes, his contact numbers are lower. It’s a 41% hard-contact rate now. And a 19% line-drive rate instead of a 22%. If you go by Statcast, last yea his average exit velocity was 92.2 MPH, and this year it’s 90.4. According to that, he’s below what he should be in terms of slugging and weighted on-base with the contact he’s making, but not by all that much.

    As far as how he’s being attacked, there isn’t too much difference. He’s seeing a scosh (technical term) more fastballs, but not really worth remarking on. Again, it might be a luck thing. Last year, Betts slaughtered sinkers to the tune of a .449 average. This year, it’s .267 with a .257 BABIP instead of a .457 one. But he actually is hitting them for line-drives more often. He’s also been woeful on cutters this year, hitting .154 on them after .355 last year. It seems like pitchers have made one change, and that’s only staying to the outside on them with Betts.

    Because of that and more Betts has made a concerted effort to go the other way, but he’s never had a lot of power the other way. He’s only slugging .354 when going the other way this year, and even last year when he was crushing everything it was only .429.

    Which makes for an itchy debate for the Red Sox front office, as Betts only has one year left in arbitration. They gave him $20M this year, and you’d think that’ll be $25 or so next year. But is Betts a $25-30M player every year as he was in ’18 and ’16? Or is he 5-WAR player he was in ’15, ’17, and this year? He’s not worth a Trout contract, but then who is? The market is certainly sliding the Red Sox way on this, of course.

    Basically, the lesson here is that you can rent in Trout-land, but it’s nearly impossible to own.

  • Series Recap – Sox Lose 2 of 3 Against Rangers: SSDD

    Series Recap – Sox Lose 2 of 3 Against Rangers: SSDD

    Game 1: Sox 5 – Rangers 4 (10 Innings)

    Game 2: Sox 5 – Rangers 6

    Game 3: Sox 4 – Rangers 7

     

    Same shit, different day.  That’s the only way you can sum up the stream of drizzling shits the White Sox starting rotation oozes out series after series.  If Giolito isn’t pitching the Sox offense is going to have to carry the day, unless it’s the 1 out of 5 starts where Nova or Lopez is useful.  I’ve seen 5000% more Odrisamer Despagine starts then I’ve ever cared to in my entire life, and yet I know Hahn and Renteria are going to trot him out there again to kick off the Twins series next weekend.  I’d be willing to bet Vegas sets the over/under for that game somewhere around 18 runs to start.

    I understand that injuries are a thing, and the Sox staff has been hit with more than their fair share of them this season, but so have other teams.  The Yankees have had every single one of their starters hurt at one point or another this season, and yet their games seem to be eminently watchable.  Can you imagine the frothing fury of the New York media if Brian Cashman signed Despagine for any reason OTHER than to carry buckets of sunflower seeds to the bullpen?  The New York Post would spontaneously combust in people’s hands (which is probably best for everybody involved).  Yet here the Sox sit, Hahn never really having to answer to anyone as to why he thinks this rotation is acceptable.   He gets to hide in the shadow of the North Siders, and we are stuck watching it.  On top of that the Hawks traded Pittsburgh for a cantaloupe on skates, and the Predators sent PK Subban to New Jersey for some seashells and a bottle of isopropyl alcohol.  Sigh.

     

    NUMBERS DON’T LIE

    -At least there was some fun stuff this series.  Zack Collins finally got to start a game, and rewarded Renteria with a 3 run shot to dead center field.  He waited until Jurado made a mistake with a 2-2 slider and stepped into it for an exciting start to his career.  It was his only hit of the series, but at least he made it count.  His first time behind the dish was catching for Despagine, so I guess the jury is going to remain out on his ability to catch a major league starter for a bit longer.

    -Tim Anderson seems to be heating up again, hitting safely in all 3 games and absolutely pummeling the Rangers pitching staff in game 2 to the tune of 4 RBIs.  He only sees about 8 pitches a game, but if he wants to swing like Javy Baez and he can have the same results I’m all for it.  Like Sam said in our round table for the Cubs/Sox series, there are going to peaks and valleys to players who treat plate discipline like it’s pizza in St. Louis, but as long as the peaks are as high as Timmy’s have been so far it’s gonna be fun.

    -Ryan Cordell is nice and all, but he’s not a major league starter.  As soon as they’re able to voodoo Jon Jay back to life, he needs to shamble his ass out to right field because I’m kinda done with Cordell.  Bryce Harper woulda looked pretty good out there too, but whatever.

    -Don’t look now but Jace Fry and Kelvin Herrera have a pulse.  Both have looked pretty solid over the last few appearances, and Herrera even scored the win in game 1.  Combined with Colome and Bummer, the back end of the Sox bullpen is looking pretty tasty right now.

    -Reynaldo Lopez gave up a bundle of runs early then settled down to a decent line in night one.  His changeup was not locating well, unless you were sitting in right center field and looking for a souvenir, but he was able to (mostly) use his fastball to keep the Rangers off balance.  I don’t know quite what it is, but if Lopez can get through the first inning OK it usually results in a pretty solid start for him.  Maybe lay off the monster energy drink in his pregame routine, I dunno.  Either way, the Sox need to see more of him if they’re gonna pencil him in as the 5th starter for the 2021 world series team.

    -Yonder Alonso fucking sucks, and from here on out he should never start over Zack Collins unless they accidentally leave Collins on the bus and he gets stuck in Texas.  Maybe not even then.

     

    Next up is a trip to Beantown.  If anyone happens to see Brad Marchand sitting in/next to a dumpster please send pictures.

     

  • Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Mets: Pulled Back From The Edge

    Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Mets: Pulled Back From The Edge

    Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 7, Mets 4

    Game 2 Box Score: Mets 5, Cubs 4

    Game 3 Box Score: Mets 10, Cubs 2

    Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 5, Mets 3

    There have been a handful of times this year, going against my try-to-keep-calm nature about a baseball season, where I’ve been on the precipice of getting worried or upset about this team and thinking it might need bigger changes than I thought. Or giving up on any sort of glory in October. And then right about as I’m going to Tommen myself over the edge, they’ve pulled a rabbit. Splitting with the Sox and Mets isn’t exactly acceptable, but losing three of four to the Mets would have been far worse. Now you’re only one game off where you should have been on this homestand really, and a series win over the admittedly molten Braves probably gets you there. There’s still much to complain about, but now they’re just complaints instead of outright beefs.

    Let’s clean it up.

    The Two Obs

    -Javy Baez’s last two ABs are the difference between the raw variety show he used to be and All-Star he is now. He was completely overmatched by deGrom in his first two PAs, though a lot of hitters were. He couldn’t pick up the slider and he wasn’t getting within a foot of it. Then in his third AB he went with a plan, fought off some tough pitches, and muscled a single through the middle. Gained a little confidence, and even being down 0-2 to Lugo didn’t phase him. And then he finally remembered right field is legal, and pulled his team’s ass out of a sling. I shouldn’t doubt him.

    -If you do want to worry, here’s Jose Quintana for you. It was only four starts ago that he did throw seven against the Rockies, but walks in the last three have been a problem. Yesterday he was wild in the zone, and though I thought he had some rough BABIP luck with Jeff McNeil basically cricket-ing a double for two runs, he fell apart after that. I think it’s just a blip, but when he got in trouble yesterday he abandoned his change. He can’t do that, because then he’s just two pitches. Even if he doesn’t have a feel for it, he’s got to find it. Hopefully back to basics soon.

    -I’ve had enough of McNeil and Alonso for a while, thank you.

    -Alzolay’s debut was certainly enticing, and no one should get ahead of themselves. But he does present some more interesting options, and one of them the Cubs will use this week is six starters to keep everyone fresh. When Hendricks returns he could again be what Chatwood and Montgomery could have been, a multi-inning weapon out of the pen. He was going to be on an innings-limit anyway. We’re a long way from that, but it’s at least something to get excited about.

    -Friday’s loss is the one that hurts. Sometimes it’s not your day and you get stuffed like Saturday. But Friday was there for them. Yu was itchy again, there seems to be this fascination with getting Brach right even though he probably won’t be here next week, and then continued use of Montgomery as a LOOGY which he’s never been. It’s not like McNeil crushed that ball off of him or anything but Monty isn’t missing a ton of bats either. Give him a clean inning, or two, or three. It’s what he’s built to do. He’s not a high-leverage one-hitter dude. Add up enough games you feel like you should have gotten and you’re in the muck with the Brewers and Cardinals. And no one wants that.

    -Bryant has two homers in June. He’s slugging .453 in the month. Are we a touch worried about either wear or the shoulder again? This seems long for a slump.

    Onwards…

  • Series Preview: White Sox at Rangers – Mystery Men

    Series Preview: White Sox at Rangers – Mystery Men

      VS

    Records: White Sox 35-37  / Rangers 40-35

    Gametimes: Friday/Saturday 7:05  Sunday 2:05

    TV: NBCSN

    Where The Buffalo Roam:  Lone Star Ball

    Probable Starters:

    Reynaldo Lopez vs Ariel Jurado

    Odrisamer Despaigne vs Lance Lynn

    Chevy Nova vs Adrian Simpson

    PROBABLE LINEUPS:

    RANGERS

    1. Shin-Soo Choo – DH
    2. Delino DeShields – CF
    3. Elvis Andrus – SS
    4. Nomar Mazara – RF
    5. Willie Calhoun – LF
    6. Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B
    7. Rougned Odor – 2B
    8. Ronald Guzman – 1B
    9. Jeff Mathis – C

     

    WHITE SOX

    1. Leury Garcia – CF
    2. Tim Anderson – SS
    3. Jose Abreu – 1B
    4. James McCann (C/DH)
    5. Eloy Jimenez – LF
    6. Yoan Moncada – 3B
    7. Zack Collins (C/DH)
    8. Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
    9. Ryan Cordell (RF)

     

    The Sox travel to the deep south this weekend after their backwards split with the North Siders in the middle of the week.  Down in Arlington they find a team that…should not be.  The Rangers currently sit in 2nd place in the AL West despite what was supposedly a rebuilding year for them, especially after a dead last finish the previous season.  Looking at the Rangers lineup, there really is no reason for them to be in 2nd place, or in wild card contention yet here we are.  Baseball is weird sometimes.

    Their two biggest additions this past offseason were Lance Lynn and Hunter Pence, two guys who were expected to be just that.  Guys.  Position fillers until they’re either moved at the deadline for future assets, or placeholders until the next generation shows up to take their jobs.  They certainly weren’t expected to be doing what they’re currently doing.  Lance Lynn is the 2nd best pitcher in the entire league according to Fangraphs, and Hunter Pence (before he exploded his groin a few days ago) was expected to compete for an All Star spot in a crowded AL outfield.  Pence’s OBPS currently sits at a goofy .962, almost .200 points higher than his career average.  While Lynn’s peripheral stats suggest that this year might actually be sustainable, Pence’s ones really do not.

    After those two, the monsters were supposed to be Joey Gallo and Elvis Andrus.  Gallo was tearing his way to an MVP level season before being felled by an oblique issue a few weeks ago.  Andrus continues to be what the Rangers hoped he would be, continuing his pseudo-breakout season from 2018.  He hits for pop, and plays well enough defense as to not be worried every time a ball shoots his way.  Shin-Soo Choo continues to be the most consistent thing about this roster, despite entering into his 37th year of existence.

    The Rangers rotation is basically Lynn and Mike Minor, then a bunch of spare parts (sound familiar?). Minor is having an excellent year, and the pair of them are basically dragging the rest of the rotation into normalcy.  The bullpen is constantly in flux, as is the closer role.  Jose Leclerc was supposed to continue his breakout season from last year, but instead started off the year giving up somewhere around 389 earned runs.  Shawn Kelley has taken the reigns, but not to the point that Leclerc has been removed from the conversation.

    The Sox come into the series after an ass backwards split with the Cubs that saw Ivan Nova and not Lucas Giolito hold the Cubs bats at bay.  The most concerning thing that came out of the series is that it seems Ricky Renteria is continuing his tradition of pushing his players to play through injuries.  Yoan Moncada has outright said that his back is more painful hitting from the right side, yet there he was Wednesday night being part of a double switch and attempting to bunt.  Leury Garcia is clearly nursing some type of lower body injury, as he doesn’t have his usual explosive speed and first step.  It brings to mind the dumbshittery Renteria pulled with Avi Garcia and his knee last season.

    At any rate, if the Sox want to take this series the bats are going to have to be they way it’s done, as the combined ERA of all 3 Sox starters requires a TI-82 to calculate.  The Rangers lineup might not look threatening, especially missing Gallo and Pence, but they’ve been making it work all season.  Time to solve the puzzle and take 2 of 3 because you know O-Driss is gonna give up 9.

    LETS GO SOX

  • Rangers Spotlight: Huh?

    Rangers Spotlight: Huh?

    I’m gonna throw out a super weird stat for you.  Ready?  Here it goes:  Lance Lynn is currently the second best pitcher in all of baseball, according to Fangraphs.  Seriously.  If you were like me, that statement was definitely worth a double take at your computer screen.  Lynn has always been a solid, if unspectacular starter throughout his MLB career which up until recently was confined to the wastelands of St. Louis.  He debuted with somewhat of a bang in 2012, winning 18 games with a 3.78 ERA and 180 strikeouts.  That 18 wins has been the high watermark for him so far, as the closest he’s gotten since then was 15 (twice, in 2013 and 2014).  His stats have been pretty consistent along those lines, averaging somewhere between a 3.60-4.00 ERA, hovering around 170 Ks and a decent 3ish WAR.

    So how has he gone from these satisfactory numbers to the more impressive ones he has this year?  Pitchers in their 7th season of playing usually don’t end up with their best seasons unless you’re Charlie Morton and the Astros have sprinkled their pixie dust on your elbow.  So is there a regression cliff ahead of this guy’s road to the AL Cy Young award?  If you look at the advanced stats you’d be surprised to see (again) that his numbers could actually stand to be a little better.  His K/9% is within his career averages, as is his BABIP and his strand rate.  His HR/FB ratio is down, but not to the point where you’d think it’s an aberration, especially with someone who’s fastball has a lot of sink on it.  So here’s where it gets kinda weird.  His FIP currently sits an entire point below his ERA, which leads you to believe that he’s not getting any help behind him, and he plays in a shit stadium for pitchers both things that are accurate.

    He’s also added a few MPH to his fastball, which at his age is fairly impressive.  The other thing he’s doing is throwing the ball more consistently for strikes, cutting his walk rate by a few percent.  He’s also gotten his swinging strike rate up above 10%, which he hasn’t been able to do in half a decade.  Lynn credits the Rangers strength and conditioning coach with the increased velocity, and his ability to go deeper into games. So taking all that into account, it certainly seems like this Lance Lynn is the real deal, at least as far as I can tell looking at his advanced stats (and my fantasy baseball team ranking).  All this could be a mirage, I suppose, but the numbers don’t really support any severe regression coming.  Maybe all you have to do as a pitcher is get as far away from Imo’s Pizza as you possibly can?

    The Rangers have definitely gotten themselves a steal in the offseason.  He’s certainly a major reason why Texas is in the thick of things in the AL west, and major obstacle for the Sox this weekend, especially if Leury Garcia and Yoan Moncada are hurting more than Galaxy Brain Renteria is letting on.

     

     

  • Series Preview – Mets vs. Cubs: Something About These Colors

    Series Preview – Mets vs. Cubs: Something About These Colors

    vs.

    RECORDS: Mets 35-39   Cubs 40-33

    GAMETIMES: Thursday 7:05, Friday-Sunday 1:20

    TV: Thursday WGN, Friday NBCSN, Saturday and Sunday ABC

    ASLEEP ON THE 7 TRAIN: Mets Blog

    PITCHING MATCHUPS

    Walker Lockett vs. Tyler Chatwood

    Jason Vargas vs. Yu Darvish

    Zack Wheeler vs. Jose Quintana

    Jacob deGrom vs. Cole Hamels

    PROBABLE METS LINEUP

    Jeff McNeil – LF

    Pete Alonso – 1B

    Robinson Cano – 2B

    Michael Conforto – RF

    Wilson Ramos – C

    Todd Frazier – 3B

    Amed Rosario – SS

    Juan Lagares – CF

    PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

    Kyle Schwarber – LF

    Kris Bryant – 3B

    Anthony Rizzo – 1B

    Javier Baez – SS

    Willson Contreras – C

    Jason Heyward – RF

    David Bote – 2B

    Albert Almora Jr. – CF

     

    As the Cubs return to regularly schedules National League action, they’ll be greeted by the visit of the ship that always seems to be facing the wrong way, the New York Mets. What is it about teams in this shade of blue and orange? There’s a lot of similarities between the Mets and Edmonton Oilers, from the greatness in the 80s to the seemingly unable to get out of their own way methods of the past decade to wasting the prime of generational talents like deGrom and now possibly Pete Alonso. It was ever thus with the Mets.

    Alonso is the story on the offensive side for the Metropolitans. He’s third in the NL in homers with 24, seventh in slugging, and has propped up a lineup that has had to drag along too many guys, including Robinson Cano who was supposed to be the dragger and not the dragee. Other Mets system products like Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have done most of the rest of the heavy lifting. The offense took something of a hit when Brandon Nimmo‘s neck was filled with bugs and Yeonis Cespedes’s feet were the recipient of a witch’s curse (though Cespedes has never been that good), which forced Juan Legares into the lineup every day pretty much. Todd Frazier has been just about average, as has Wilson Ramos. It’s a line up that just screams, “fine.” There are some clear holes.

    The rotation is about what you’d expect, though it’s had what are no its usual injury problems, as every member of it has missed a start or two and had to have some weird microscopes or resonance tests. It’s very Mets. deGrom, Thor, and Wheeler have also suffered from what is still a subpar Mets defense, as they’re carrying far lower FIPs than ERAs. The Cubs will only have to see two of them this weekend in Wheeler and deGrom, whose matchup with Hamels on Sunday is going to be the main event of this series. That’s not to discount Vargas who has been able to dance through the rain drops this year with some heavy fly ball ways and some righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery. Walker Lockett, which sounds like a name out of Deadwood, will make his Mets debut tonight instead of Thor. He’s a control/grounder type who made a brief cameo for the Padres last year.

    The Mets pen has been the normal adventure is always seems to be. Prized winter acquisition Edwin Diaz has not turned out the lights as he had before, though mostly effective. Robert Gsellman is already about to die of exhaustion. Seth Lugo has been another stalwart, but after that the Mets have trotted out 17 other clowns to try and get outs and it’s been…well, let’s say abstract. Jeurys Familia, scumbag that he is, responded to losing his closer role by being awful and then hurt, and the Mets haven’t found any other solutions besides the first three mentioned.

    And as always, the Mets are a circus off the field, between how they’ve ground their pitchers with obvious injuries to the bullpen to not getting a game out of Jared Lowrie with an injury they can’t seem to diagnose, to today where they’ve fired their pitching and bullpen coach. You can always count on them to be the Mets.

    For the Cubs, they’ll fill in for Kyle Hendricks tonight by letting Tyler Chatwood start and then having their only pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay follow up. It’s a first look at an actual, breathing promise on the mound for the Cubs, who have yet to produce one since…arguably Hendricks? Before that it’s probably Andrew Cashner? Let’s not think about it.

    As for the rest, they’ll hope Contreras’s big night is the sign of another binge, as the Cubs could use it. They will miss Thor and Matz, which is something of a boon, but they’ll not want to have to get past deGrom to win this series if at all possible, as he’s coming off his best start of the season. Then again, they made quick work of Lucas Giolito, so who fucking knows?

    The Braves will be a stiff test after this. Best to treat the Mets like the Mets.

     

  • Mets Spotlight: Has Michael Conforto Finally Survived The Mets?

    Mets Spotlight: Has Michael Conforto Finally Survived The Mets?

    It seems a long while ago that Michael Conforto was bursting on the scene in 2015. While at the time the Mets had already rolled out Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz in their rotation, Conforto was the first shot in a homegrown lineup to match the rotation. Conforto lit up the National League for the last two months of the season, with a .509 slugging, 133 wRC+, and a .359 wOBA and was along for the ride to the World Series that year. After trading for Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets looked to have their outfield set for a bit, at least in the corners.

    But never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets.

    Conforto struggled in his first full go-around in the majors, as players tend to do. But mostly it was due to some rotten luck, and Conforto was still was getting on base through walks, hitting the ball pretty damn hard, he just couldn’t get anything to fall. It earned him a brief demotion back to Triple-A, which opened up space for the Mets to acquire…Jay Bruce? Yep, that’s right. The Mets ended that season with an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Cespedes in center (where his graham cracker ligaments were always going to do really well), and Bruce in right, making an excellent impression of the old people and their walkers doing their laps around the mall. Needless to say the looks on the Mets pitchers’ faces as line drives and fly balls kept falling into open spaces while that trio wheezed and gagged over to them would have been Websters-worthy of “bemused.”

    Again, never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets, because they re-signed Bruce and then tried to cram Conforto in center, where he had never really played. And trying to cover for Bruce and Cespedes, when he wasn’t disintegrating, or whatever Granderson had left, wasn’t exactly the place to learn the position. Conforto did hit the shit out of the baseball though, with a 147 wRC+ as he was shuffled around and to the bench.

    The Mets seemingly got the message last year, though Cespedes showing up in the morgue might have helped with that. After brief flirtations with Austin Jackson and Jose Bautista, the proverbial poking dead bodies with a stick, the Mets allowed Conforto to play left every day and Brandon Nimmo to play center.

    They’ve moved Conforto over to right this season, and he’s responding with one of his best offensive season. His walk-rate is a career-high, and his slugging and other numbers are around his ’16 level. Conforto’s line-drive heavy ways are back from a year hiatus as well.

    The difference appears to be Conforto’s production on slower pitches. He’s always been a “Can Pull A Bullet” guy, but struggled with change-ups and curves. This year he’s hitting those at a .250 and .267 clips, which are way above his career norms. That helps buttress his usual fireworks on the hard stuff (.289 and .579 slugging).

    Even better for Conforto is he no longer has to carry this lineup after everyone gets hurt. Pete Alonso is odds on to win the NL Rookie Of The Year with his homer-a-day policy. That doesn’t mean the Mets haven’t totally been the Mets, as their trade for Robinson Cano is looking like another piece of Queens genius as Cano has caught Cespedes ligaments and health and hasn’t been any good when he has been around. And thanks to that lineup and some injuries in the rotation the Mets haven’t been able to vault themselves into the NL East discussion, which the Braves look like they might turn moot soon anyway.

    Still, at least Conforto didn’t get completely buried by Mets-iness. It’s killed many before him.

  • Will The Cubs Need Another Bat?

    Will The Cubs Need Another Bat?

    Granted, this is a poor post to explore a day after you’ve been smothered by Ivan Nova, statistically the worst starter in all of baseball. One is capable of the irrational at the moment. And it’s not fair to get really emotional about it when you’ve just run the Dodgers gauntlet for four games, because right now no one is scoring against them. But the thing is if you want to go anywhere, you’re going to have to bust through that Crossing The Desert, or out-slug them, or out-slug the Brewers to even win the division (Lord knows the Brewers aren’t going to out-pitch anyone), or the suddenly nuclear Braves…anyway, you get it.

    The worry area for the Cubs all season has been the pen, and the signing of Craig Kimbrel doesn’t magically make all of that go away. And you still imagine that when the deadline approaches, that still will be Priority #1, and possibly #2 and even #3. Fair enough, the Cubs still only have two to three reliable guys right now, and that might even include Kimbrel. There are a lot of wildcards out there.

    Still, what’s been apparent is the Cubs have obvious holes in the lineup. They’re at second, center, and right. The last is being a tad harsh, as even with Jason Heyward’s abhorrent May, he’s still having an above-average offensive year (barely). But we can aim for a little higher than barely above average, at least I hope we can. Mom always told me aim high. The Cubs can carry average or a tick below at one spot, maybe even two.

    The problem is that when the main five–Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez, and now Schwarber–aren’t all firing at the same time then the offense becomes something of a wasteland after the fifth hitter. Baez is in a slump, Contreras has gotten ground-ball happy again, and this is a big reason the Cubs haven’t put together a bunch of runs of late.

    Still, I don’t want to base things on a bad week or two. It’s a long goddamn season. But over the last month, the Cubs are 10th in runs in the NL, 12th in average, 11th in wOBA. A month gets harder to ignore.

    And what’s clear is that the answers mostly aren’t on the team. There’s no way the Cubs could have foreseen that Ben Zobrist would leave the team and his return be totally up in the air. It’s easy to forget how good Zobrist was last year in a more limited role in service of his age, but his 123 wRC+ or .355 wOBA would be miles above anything they’re getting for the most part from anyone not in that fivesome mentioned.

    With Zoby 18 being somewhere in the quantum zone, the Cubs aren’t left with many answers. Carlos Gonzalez is dead. He’s not going to be reanimated. Everyone but Joe Maddon seems to know this. What’s hilarious is that Mark Zagunis was never given near the opportunities that CarGo has been, and his numbers are significantly better. And no, that’s not a plea to recall ZagNuts and play him. It’s just an illustration of how toast CarGo is.

    Addison Russell is probably not going to hit, because he never really has. Some in the organization are blinded by the 98 RBI he put up once, but that’s more a function of the great offense ahead of him in ’16 than him being a great hitter. He’s never had an above-average offensive season, and has been actively bad the last three seasons. Daniel Descalso has been a disaster, and would likely be DFA’d if Zobrist were to return.

    Whatever momentum Albert Almora might have had in May has been stunted by the arrival and usage of Gonzalez. I’m not sure how exactly, but Almora had a productive May. He had terrible luck (.253 BABIP), still hit too many grounders (50%, but that was down from April), and yet hit for enough power to overcome all of that. It’s the Heyward argument; given his defense you take average or just above offense and you have yourself a very useful player. June has seen Almora hit the ball in the same fashion as May, at least contact-type wise, it’s just that none of it has gone out of the park as a quarter of his fly balls did in May. I don’t know what the truth is here, but I know there’s more potential here than trying to wheeze one more breath of oxygen into CarGo.

    The only in-house answer right now is to play David Bote every day. I know that Maddon would tell me that would expose Bote, or make the Cubs too right-handed, but quite frankly that’s horseshit. In fact, Bote has been terrible against left-handed pitching this year and great against right-handed, the complete opposite of last year. Which makes you at least hope he could blend the two one day.

    Bote’s run into some bad luck in June as well, as he’s had a 32% line-drive rate in the month which is insanely high. Overall, his hard-contact rate is down but I can’t see how lacing line-drives all over the place is a bad thing. He’s hardly a star, but given what else you have, it’s just about the only choice. Whether that’s playing second with Almora in center and Heyward in right, or at third with Bryant in right and Heyward in center, I really don’t care. You have to at least try. We know Maddon loves his roster flexibility, but that’s not this roster. Quite frankly. Russell, CarGo, and Descalso have played themselves off the rotation. That’s just how it is.

    The problem with getting a bat via trade is they’re going to be costly, whereas you can find any reliever anywhere (and I’m kind of in the would rather have Bummer than Colome camp right now if the Cubs go shopping crosstown again). In my dreams you plug Howie Kendrick into second base and get on with your life. But even if the Nats decide to pack up the cats, Kendrick is going to cost and I don’t think the Cubs have the boat to spend, prospect-wise. It’s like Alzolay and Hoerner and that’s pretty much it. We’ll throw Amaya on there, but he’s a long way off. And Amaya is probably the only one you’re comfortable, barely, including in any deal just because he plays catcher and you seem set there for a while.

    Any other bat on the market is probably the same story. It’s hard to know who that would even be. Whit Merrifield isn’t going anywhere and if he did it wouldn’t be cheap. Eric Sogard? That’s a risk but would probably be cheap? He’s kind of Zobrist-lite at this point and is only a year removed from being a black hole for the Brewers. Maybe you wait out how the Reds toggle the Derek Dietrich/Scooter Gennett conundrum, but neither are guaranteed to be moved and neither would be cheap if they were.

    It’s a problem, which is why Bote should probably be given the month to see what he does with an every day role. Hell, you extended the guy anyway, right?

  • Series Preview – White Sox vs. Cubs: A Lot Of Unimportant Noise

    Series Preview – White Sox vs. Cubs: A Lot Of Unimportant Noise

    vs.

    RECORDS: White Sox 34-36   Cubs 39-32

    GAMETIMES: Tuesday and Wednesday at 7:05

    TV: WGN (Sox) and NBCSN Chicago (Cubs) Tuesday, NBCSN Chicago (Sox) and ABC 7 Wednesday (Cubs)

    WE’RE NOT LISTING OTHER BLOGS BECAUSE WE’RE ALL YOU NEED, BITCHES

    PITCHING MATCHUPS

    Ivan Nova vs. Cole Hamels

    Lucas Giolito vs. Jon Lester

    PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

    Leury Garcia – CF

    Tim Anderson – SS

    Jose Abreu – 1B

    Eloy Jimenez – LF

    Yoan Moncada – 3B

    Zack Collins – C

    Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

    Ryan Cordell – RF

    PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

    Kyle Schwarber – LF

    Kris Bryant – 3B

    Anthony Rizzo – 1B

    Javier Baez – SS

    Jason Heyward – RF

    Willson Contreras – C

    David Bote – 2B

    Albert Almora Jr. – CF

     

    I won’t lie. These games stopped being fun for me somewhere around 2008. Maybe earlier. At first I thought trying to be above it was a way to annoy my Sox-leaning friends. But then I was just above it. They were, and still are, a nuisance. They’re only that these days because of how much “meaning” the local media wants to attach to them to justify all the frothing about it when they’re just two more games on the schedule. I used to think they meant more to Sox fans, but these days it feels like even they’re over it. The Cubs have been contenders for things that matter for years now, putting these games in proper perspective. And Sox fans finally got their wish of a rebuild and have a ton of young players to enjoy watching grow up and that’s where their focus is, along with what the future might bring. Sure, two wins against the other side is always nice, but nothing that happens here is going to change what these teams are about. The days of Jerry Manuel trying to engineer his lineup and rotation in spring training for a Cubs series are long gone, and we’re all better off, that’s for sure.

    Both teams come in off frustrating weekends. The Cubs only averted complete disaster thanks to a Anthony Rizzo 9th-inning homer off of Kenley Jansen. Meanwhile, the Sox took two straight from the Yankees to pull themselves up and look over the edge of the landing of .500, before their grip gave way and they dropped the next two to roll back down the hill a bit. .500 doesn’t really mean anything to the Sox in the grand scheme of things, but it would be a nice benchmark for team and fans alike to grab hold of as proof things are moving forward.

    For this one, the Lester-Giolito matchup on Wednesday is going to grab the marquee. And that’s mostly due to Giolito, who’s been one of the best five starters in baseball this season. The Cubs just had to run the Dodgers gauntlet, so the idea of now having to put up with Giolito right after that probably sours the taste of food this week. Lester has been fighting it the past month, basically getting shelled in four of his last six starts and gutting through a four-run first inning against the Cardinals two starts back to keep that from becoming another bloodletting. Lester tried abandoning his change in his last start against the Dodgers, but that didn’t work. So it feels like he’s a touch short on answers.

    On the other side, it looks like Yoan Moncada will return for at least Wednesday if not both. New call-up Zack Collins should go right into the fire, as they’re not going to break up the Giolito-McCann Axis of Darkness anytime soon. Or McCann could get both but hey, the kid is here so let him out of the house. McCann has pretty insane patience, to the point where he watches a lot of strikes. Also pretty big pop for a catcher. Sox fans should be excited.

    Ivan Nova has held something of a voodoo sign over the Cubs before, with a career 3.97 ERA and a 5.5 K/BB ratio against them. I personally watched him out-duel Jake Arrieta in Pittsburgh in 2017, but thankfully a distillery tour before that game left me pretty “meh” about the whole thing. The Sox will have to deal with the ridiculously hot Cole Hamels, who hasn’t given up a run since May 27th.

    There will still be sections of each fanbase who attach too much to these two games and the two that will follow right before the break. They’re shrinking in size, but they’re still there. And the local media will do whatever it can to stoke their fires. Inside the park you know you’ll have a fair amount of drunken arguments. But not as many as before apparently, because it wasn’t too long ago everyone would have balked at having these games at night. Not so much anymore. Let’s get it over with.

  • Cubs-Sox Meditation

    Cubs-Sox Meditation

    Instead of our usual spotlight, for the Crosstown series the three of us who have been covering baseball so far this year–yours truly, Hess, and AJ–got together to talk about the status of each team heading into this two-day gimmick on the Northside. 

    Fels: We used to joke around here that these games meant little to Cubs fans and everything to Sox fans, because lord knows in the past I’ve come across more than enough Sox fans who had a “DEY COULD WIN TWO GAMES ALL YEAR BUT IF DERE AGAINST DA PACKERS I’M HAPPY” attitude about these. But it seems in the past couple Sox fans also regard these crosstown games as a ginned-up gimmick. That about right?

    AJ: I would agree.  The fact that CSN (now NBCSN) has tried to turn this thing into an NCAA Football kind of rivalry with some Monopoly token kind of trophy has had the opposite effect and actually highlighted how goofy the concept is.  That, and the fact that in our heart of hearts most Sox fans that follow the team closely know the best we could hope for these past few years was a series split.  I’m wondering if now that the team is trending upward we might see a resurgence of that type of behavior.  I know personally that as much as I’d like the Sox to smoke the Cubs it’s far more important to not get clobbered by Minnesota so if they lose 3 of 4 I’m not gonna be too pissed about it.  

    Hess: I am right there with you both, but I still think it is fun and kind of important that they play each other. Is it a true rivalry? No. The most heated moment in the history was the Barret-Pierzynski fight, and even any Sox who thinks they wouldn’t punch AJ when aggravated and they had the chance is a liar. But there is something fun about having them play one another, especially with the teams in the current states, as the Cubs represent everything the Sox are hoping for out of the rebuild. And the NBCSN commercials for it are nauseating.

    Flipping to you, Sam – The Sox are set to see Jon Lester on Wednesday, who seems to be having more hills and valleys with his play this year than the Rocky Mountains the Cubs left behind last week. What’s been his deal?
    Fels: Well, he’s old. Lester’s stuff has definitely declined a bit, which makes his margin for error somewhere in Hendricks range. Lester hasn’t been able to blow anyone away in a while, which is fine, because he could just beat the corners into submission. But now as his stuff plays even lower, he really has to hit the corners and nothing else and when he misses it’s ya-ha time. He’s been trying a new approach and trying to get inside more than just merely staying not the outside corner, but again, he can’t miss. Some days he doesn’t. Some days he does and he gets shelled. There seems to be no in between. He also hasn’t quite figured out how to make his change as effective as it should be.

    Looks like this week could be the debut of another Sox toy, in Zack Collins. Is this just a Wellington injury fill-in? Is he here for good? How worried are you about the swing and miss in his game?
    AJ: At this point with the hilariously bad production out of the DH spot (.191/.294/.357!?!) I’m excited to see what he can bring to the table.  I’ve set my expectations fairly low, so if he can make me forget Yonder Alonso is a thing that is here then I’ll be thrilled.  The swing and miss portion of his game seems to fit right in with most of the hitters in MLB now anyways, what with the Three True Outcomes and all, so that part doesn’t concern me as much.  What does concern me is his ability to actually stick at catcher.  If he’s unable to play there at least half time then we are looking at a career DH, as the dearth of 1B prospects the Sox have are probably gonna boot him from there.  My guess is that he’s here until Castillo is healthy, as the Sox want to try and feature The Beef as much as possible to trade him in 2 weeks.
    Hess: The funny thing about the swing-and-miss in Collins’ game is that in all reality, he doesn’t swing much. He’s one of the most patient hitters I have ever seen, and only really swings if he either really has to or really gets a pitch he likes. That has resulted in hilarious strikeout and walk rates in the minors so far, as he’s basically walked or struck out in half of his MiLB PA’s. But a 15%+ walk rate is nothing to scoff at, even if it comes with a ~30% K-rate. I echo AJ’s catching concerns, but I saw him do it in person and was actually encouraged, and I also saw him play a competent 1B in person. If he can be a C/1B/DH combo with a high OBP and big power, you will never hear me complain. In terms of who he might be replacing, I would think Collins is here the rest of the year, and either Castillo or Alonso get DFA’d on August 1 if the Sox can’t get anything for them.

    Speaking of new faces, the Cubs are still waiting patiently for Craig Kimbrel to arrive in full. Is he going to solve their bullpen issues well enough, or are they still gonna need to look elsewhere? And relatedly, do you think they’d be wanting enough for back-end help to pay up for Alex Colome from the Sox?
    Fels: Kimbrel definitely won’t solve everything, but he’s an improvement over what they have. It pushes Strop to be the fireman of sorts, or would if Maddon were in any way creative with his bullpen usage. They’ll still be on arm short, maybe two, because Maddon may have broken Cishek last year. Right now, Kintzler and Strop are the only ones they can consistently count on. Edwards was good upon his recall, but his hurt again and you can never quite trust him. There’s a chance Alzolay ends up being another arm late in the year, but even that will leave them one short I think. And while I’d love to tell you it’ll be my guy Dillon Maples…

    Colome is a name they will definitely be connected to but I think their preference is going to be someone who throws left-handed. Will Smith maybe. And I don’t think they’re going to be too interested in forking over the boat for any other reliever.
    The Sox are floating around .500 without surpassing it, but that won’t change their plans much. Still, other than Colome is there anyone they can get meaningful things for at the deadline now?
    AJ: The only other players who might be worth anything at the deadline would be James McCann or Jose Abreu and at this point the offer would have to be fairly impressive for the Sox to budge on either.  Though Tim Anderson has come a long way I think Abreu is still the face of the franchise, and having him here to mentor the other Cuban kids matters more than most may think.  

    As for McCann, even though his BABIP is insanely unsustainable his defense and his work with Giolito combined with his super affordable price make him pretty unmovable unless a team came along with a deal Hahn couldn’t refuse.
    Sam, what’s up with Javy right now?  Is this just the inevitable result of his free swinging ways catching up to him?  Or is this something more to do with the foot injury he was nursing for a few weeks?  Maybe a combination of both?
    Fels: You always worry about injuries lingering, and if it were they definitely wouldn’t tell you. But mostly I think this is just how Javy is, that there’s going to be a couple weeks or month, maybe even six weeks, where he makes you tear your hair out (if I had any) and then the rest of the time he’s the best show on Earth. He’s definitely gotten a little pull-happy and whereas in May and April he was actually taking a noticeable number of walks he hasn’t walked at all in June. Maybe the heel injury has slowed his swing a touch, we’ll never know. Once he starts going back to right field again, he’ll probably put up stupid numbers again. Javy doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I learned long ago to stop questioning it.

    All right, feels like we’re ready to go for these two stupid games. Let’s get through it.