Category: Baseball

  • Series Preview – Cubs vs. Rangers: When A Team Runs In Circles, It’s A Maddon World

    Series Preview – Cubs vs. Rangers: When A Team Runs In Circles, It’s A Maddon World

    vs.

    DATES & TIMES: Thursday 3:05, Saturday 7:05, Sunday 3:05

    TV: WGN Thursday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

    NILL ESCAPEES: Lone Star Ball

    PROBABLE PITCHERS

    Jon Lester vs. Mike Minor

    Yu Darvish vs. Edinson Volquez

    Cole Hamels vs. Lance Lynn

    CUBS PROBABLE LINEUP

    Ben Zobrist – 2B

    Kris Bryant – 3B

    Anthony Rizzo – 1B

    Javier Baez – SS

    Kyle Schwarber – LF

    Willson Contreras – C

    Jason Heyward – RF

    Albert Almora Jr. – CF

    David Bote – DH

     

    RANGERS PROBABLE LINEUP

    Shin-Soo Choo – DH

    Rougned Odor – 2B

    Elvis Andrus – SS

    Nomar Mazara – RF

    Joey Gallo – LF

    Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B

    Ronald Guzman – 1B

    Jeff Mathis – C

    Delino Deshields Jr. – CF

     

    At least the offseason is over.

    It’s been a long few months for Cubs fans. Not only did they have to sit and stew over two consecutive losses at home to end the season with two runs scored total (must be managed by Jeremy Colliton), but then their owner went and sat on the front office’s signing hands for months. So the relief that they’ll actually run out of the dugout is immeasurable today, if only to not see Tom Ricketts’s fucking face again. Let’s line it up and play.

    The narratives are well known, but the one that will get overplayed from here on out is the status of Joe Maddon. Maddon didn’t turn out to be as innovative as we thought. He never shuts up even though he has little to say. The gimmicks and quirks have run a little dry. On the other hand, he took a beat up team last year through 43-straight days or whatever it ended up being and humped them (there’s an image for you) to 95 wins. We might be bored of all the lights and whistles, but the players aren’t and that’s what matters. Just don’t turn Steve Cishek into silly puddy again.

    Another one Cubs fans might become hyper aware of is Opening Day starter Jon Lester and his decline. Lester was able to dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge his way through the season last year, but his strikeout-rate sank, his hard-contact against rose, and he basically had his defense to thank for it all. And now he’s 35. The BABIP Dragon can be a cruel foe. You won’t find a grindy-er guy than Lester who will sit on the corners no matter what, and maybe he’s got one last surge in him to be the guy he’s been. He’s certainly a bellwether on this team, and the rotation is buffeted enough that it can probably survive if he’s just huckin’ dead fish out there by July.

    The other big story of the series is Yu Darvish returning to the Cubs and returning to Texas. A lot of where the Cubs go hinges on what Darvish can provide, as he’s something of a new acquisition this season. If he stays healthy. Which is a huge if, as you’re talking about a guy who hasn’t seen 200 innings since 2013 and is coming off an injury-ruined campaign. Spring training was fun, he looks good, but everyone looks good until they get hit. It feels boom-or-bust.

    Other than that, the lineup could still be doomsday gun. The bullpen will be an adventure for a bit, until Pedro Strop comes in and everything will be fine. And remember, Carl Edwards Jr. is great until August. Worry about it then.

    To the Rangers, who somehow are in the last year of their stay in Arlington because it’s like 18-years-old and that’s totally outdated and fuck you that’s why. Fuckin’ Texas. Anyway, moving into a new stadium in the middle of a rebuild is always a choice, but here we are. The Rangers are gonna be bad, the Angels, A’s, and Astros especially are going to eat their innards on the highway all year, and it’s going to be fucking hot as balls.

    The rotation is reclamation projects galore, with Shelby Miller, Drew Smyly, and Lance Lynn populating it. Hell, Mike Minor, the starter today, is one. The hope is probably to get these guys looking like something before the deadline and flogging them for whatever they can scrape off the pavement. You don’t make long-term plans around Lance Lynn, in the same vein as friends and salad and such.

    In the lineup, only Nomar Mazara–who seriously looks like he’s about to destroy a small town every time he steps into the box–and Ronald Guzman figure to be around when the Rangers matter again. Guzman doesn’t project to be a star, and Mazara has had three goes at the American League without punching through. So clock’s ticking. This is the first year Elvis Andrus will look to his right and not see Adrian Beltre, so he might spend the whole year in black and playing Smiths records. Which we all should when it comes to the absence of Beltre. Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo are here for your strikeouts, home runs, and Cousin Vinny jokes.

    Hey Hey Holy Mackerel…

     

     

  • Series Preview – White Sox vs. Royals: …Adds Up At The Bottom

    Series Preview – White Sox vs. Royals: …Adds Up At The Bottom

    vs.

    DATES AND TIMES: Thursday 3:15, Saturday 1:15, Sunday 1:15

    TV: NBCSN Chicago Thursday and Saturday, WGN Sunday

    YOU WANNA TALK SOME JIVE?: Royals Review

    PROBABLE STARTERS

    Thursday: Carlos Rodon vs. Brad Keller

    Saturday: Reynaldo Lopez vs. Some Whatsit

    Sunday: Lucas Giolito vs. Some Whosit

    PROJECTED WHITE SOX LINEUP

    Yoan Moncada – 3B

    Yolmer Sanchex – 2B

    Jose Abreu – DH

    Yonder Alonso – 1B

    Eloy Jimenez – LF

    Daniel Palka – RF

    Welington Castillo – C

    Tim Anderson – SS

    Adam Engel – CF

    PROJECTED ROYALS LINEUP

    Adalberto Mondesi – SS

    Whit Merrifield – 2B

    Alex Gordon – LF

    Jorge Soler – RF

    Ryan O’Hearn – 1B

    Hunter Dozier – 3B

    Lucas Duda – DH

    Martin Maldonado – C

    Billy Hamilton – CF

    Yeah, we’re gonna do this all season. Fuck it.

    Despite most Sox fans protests and wishes, they will actually commence and play out a season this spring and summer, and it starts with a pretty soft landing in Kansas City. The Royals might be another team along with the Tigers the Sox can definitely look down on when all is said and done. That’s not saying much, but hey, it’s something. Can you believe it was only three and a half years ago the Royals were in consecutive World Series?

    We’ll start with the Southside Nine, who will see Carlos Rodon and his quest to not end up in the bullpen start on Opening Day for the first time. Rodon’s search for a third pitch will go a long way to seeing that quest completed, and maybe also help him find the ability to strike out anyone which he lost last year. What’s scary is that Rodon had his nothing-year last year with a seriously depressed .242 BABIP against, which means he was pretty lucky to even get to that. Rodon’s one year of control in ’16 saw him throw more fastballs than he ever has, and he’s probably going to need to get back to that to have any control.

    The main attraction for Sox fans will be of course the unveiling of Eloy Jimenez in left, and he’ll pretty much be the raison d’etre for the entire season with Michael Kopech suffering a case of elbow twang. There’s the hope that Yoan Moncada’s keen eye can finally sync with his hands and actually lead him to make contact more often and turn into what was projected. At least he won’t hurt anyone, or less people, at third base than second. Lucas Giolito will trot out his truncated motion for real for the first time, hoping that will allow him to find the strike zone more than once every couple of minutes.

    All of that still adds up to a lot more than the Royals have going on, which you can tell by the fact that a Rule 5 pickup last year in Brad Keller (Old Man Keller’s boy, in case you’re asking) is going to take the ball on Opening Day. They still haven’t said who will follow that, and it might be Homer Bailey, which is just another word for “inferno.” Danny Duffy is hurt, and after that Jakob Junis and Jorge Lopez will try and make up the difference. Keller gets by on getting a ton of grounders, and much like the rest of the staff he doesn’t get a lot of Ks. But he kept an inordinate number of fly balls in the park last year, and Kauffman Stadium helps with that, but it won’t be that low again.

    As for the lineup…well, they’ll run a lot? Between Mondesi, Merrifield, and Hamilton they could eclipse 120 steals right there, which would come close to leading the league alone. That’s assuming they can get Mondesi and Hamilton on base enough, which they can’t. Mondesi might get there if he goes Willie Mays Hayes and just keeps everything on the ground, but don’t count on it. As for the rest. Alex Gordon died and they have the worse Dozier. Jorge Soler is going to wheel out there along with my charred hopes of a modern-day Vladimir Guerrero (I guess I have to put Sr. now) with plate discipline, as that’s what I thought he would be only like three years ago. We’ll always have the ’15 playoffs, Jorge. And that homer against Pat Neshek in St. Louis that still hasn’t landed. And he’ll flash it just before something else on him falls off in May and he’s done for the rest of the year.

    No, there’s no Manny Machado. No, there isn’t that much to watch other than Eloy until Cease and Madrigal arrive. But it’s better than it was. Off we go.

  • Finally Some Good News: The Cerebral Assassin Signs Up

    Finally Some Good News: The Cerebral Assassin Signs Up

    It’s mostly been a spring training of gritted teeth, looks of disdain, and exasperated sighs out of Mesa, Arizona. This was not an offseason the filled any Cubs fan with glee, or even hope–of which is something we used to never even approach “E” on the tank–and the actual tossing of balls and swinging of bats didn’t do anything to lighten that. Manny Machado didn’t arrive. Neither did Bryce Harper, and it was only four or five months ago that was a foregone conclusion. In fact, no one arrived except Daniel Descalso and a couple of guys who max out at 30 pitches a week.

    Once the Cubs sat out the winter, they also seemed to be sitting out extension season. Which actually made sense, as there was no one pressing who needed to be re-upped. But when your fanbase is already fed up with inaction, anyone doing anything elsewhere is cause to get even more so. Goldschmidt, Trout, Verlander, Arenado all re-upped, and meanwhile the Cubs had ass firmly planted on hands.

    Or so it seemed. Today, both Kyle Hendricks and Jacob deGrom extended their deals with their teams. And I think it’s kind of poignant they did so on the same day. Because they’re a lot more alike than you think. And the $13.7M average on this ($12M next year and $14M the three years after to go along with the $7.4M he got through arbitration this year) is actually a steal.

    The headline on this is that since 2016, there are six pitchers with a better ERA than Hendricks. They are Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. Four of those guys make north of $30M per year or are about to, and Thor will join them soon enough (assuming his arm doesn’t actually splinter into pure gas). To get Hendricks at less than half of that is…well, it’s a trick.

    Oh I know. ERA doesn’t mean what it once did. Those guys strike out the world, and figure to for the foreseeable future. There are less variable, if any, with them. Hendricks depends on his defense and movement and deception and his margin for error is always thinner than a pubic hair. I get it. And yet he’s danced on that edge for three seasons now without falling off. Maybe it’s just who he is?

    Hendricks may not send everyone back to the dugout immediately with their tail between their legs, but he does have the second-highest soft-contact rate in that same timeframe of anyone. CC Sabathia is the only one ahead of him. Which means he runs a lower-than-most BABIP, or Batting Average On Balls Put In Play (15th). Yes, he’s always had at least an above-average infield behind him. But that’s A) by design and B) given the age of Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo, that doesn’t figure to change. Only second-base would seem to need a refreshing.

    Even if you go by FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which seeks to take the defense out of the equation, Hendricks ranks 21st in the past three seasons by that measure. Right ahead of names like Bumgarner, Greinke, and Archer. Again, this isn’t really an accident.

    If you were just to compare him to another pitcher to sign his extension today another season away from free agency in deGrom, it’s really weird to say. Yes, deGrom has a Rookie Of The Year and a Cy Young to his name, as well as odd capitalization. deGrom is also a year older, and their career ERA+ are 144 for deGrom and 134 for Hendricks. deGrom’s WHIP is 1.07 for his career and Hendricks’s 1.11. Their FIPs are 2.81 to 3.32. No, Hendricks isn’t deGrom, but he’s also probably a whole lot better than just half as good, as their new salaries would suggest. Also Hendricks does have top-3 Cy season on his resume, just for funsies.

    And the Cubs need the savings. Cole Hamels is here for this season only. Jon Lester is off the books come November 2020. So will Jose Quintana. And the Cubs have exactly dick coming through the system to replace those guys, with only Adbert Alzolay having any chance of making the rotation, and he missed over half the season last year. The Cubs are going to have to go out and get more pitching, if there’s any to be found given the state of free agency now, and it’s going to cost. Having to not pay Hendricks what he could have easily made an argument for might be a life-saver.

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  • A Cubs Fan’s Lament/Fear

    A Cubs Fan’s Lament/Fear

    I told you we were going to try some new stuff here. Today it begins. My lament as the season draws close.

    I had a hope that the approaching of Opening Day, along with watching basically the dress rehearsal against the Red Sox last night, would erase any feelings of bile or mistrust of the Cubs to come. Sadly I’m still searching for that..

    If I were to tell you it’s not been the easiest offseason for Cubs fans, I’d have a pretty handy headshot and resume for an audition for the role of Captain Obvious. That would also seriously understate some pretty heavy issues that surround the Cubs, and baseball as a whole, that they encountered and failed to navigate all that well through the winter months.

    I’m not going to tell you how to feel about the Cubs and your fandom. Your fandom is yours and yours to do with what you will. I don’t think there are any wrong answers. That’s not to suggest I’m at ease with any of it: Sinclair, Addison Russell, the lack of spending and the reasons/confusion/lies for it. While it seems silly to equate what the Cubs spend on their payroll to serious, all-world issues like domestic abuse and biased/bought media, at the base of it it still does get to labor relations, union rights, and income inequality, and that is an issue in our time.

    For me, and I’m not prescribing this for you, I don’t want to be robbed of something I’ve loved my whole life, and has been a big part of my life, by someone I can’t beat through that route anyway. I could turn in my fancard, not buy tickets, burn all the memorabilia and not acquire more, not watch, but the only person who loses anything there is me. And you can say that if more felt like that, owners like Tom Ricketts would feel the pinch. Maybe, but even then he’s still a billionaire (or more accurately, the son of one), and the loss is small if even noticeable. There are other routes to change, and those are the ones I prefer to follow.

    But there is one angle I can’t reconcile, which frightens me because it only comes about if the Cubs defy the projections and are the last one left standing come the end of October. And that’s a real possibility and that’s supposed only fill me with excitement and anticipation of the coming season.  Which is the whole point of being a fan, or most of it. And it was inspired by a piece on Deadspin by David Roth.

    It generated an image inside my head, of the Cubs on the field at Wrigley, having just disposed of the Astros in six tough games (in what you’d have to call an upset, as the Astros lineup is the baseball version of the Infinity Gauntlet). Rob Manfred hands the trophy to Tom Ricketts. And he has this smile that doesn’t say he was right all along, but that he got away with it. You know that smile. You’ve seen it on tons of people who have advantages they didn’t earn and you don’t have, and also think they’re entitled or deserved, or worse, earned them. The smile of the guy you know you’ll never get one over, the one who’ll never lose. The one that says he knew better, when you know for damn sure he never did.

    I’ve never thought of Ricketts as a dumb man. I’m not sure he is. I don’t think he’s a baseball genius or anything close. It doesn’t take a deep well of baseball understanding to just go and hire the best guy with the biggest name as an executive to lead your team’s turnaround. I think he probably is a genuine fan, but not as much as he plays up to cover what’s really going on. If he were a real fan, this offseason probably looks different.

    I’m sure like me, you haven’t bought RIcketts’s claims that there just isn’t money for the Cubs to spend. It’s there, he just doesn’t want to. Doesn’t think he needs to. And he doesn’t, because the Cubs will be massively profitable no matter what happens on the field this year. Remember, he didn’t take action on his baseball operation until the stadium was half-empty most days. Which, fair enough, I guess.

    But until the media asks some serious questions, which they haven’t, and the Ricketts family is forced to show the math on where the money is or where it didn’t come pouring in from that it was supposed to, no Cubs fan is going to take him at face value. You see the sellouts, you see the prices, you see the developments around the park, you know about BAMTECH, the new TV deal, etc. It’s the evidence you have.

    And it’s not just the Cubs, of course. This is a baseball-wide problem. Teams aren’t going all out simply because they think there’s a better way or they have to stick to a more efficient way. They’re doing it because they can, because the CBA allows them to, because they’re still going to be profitable no matter their team’s fortunes, because the union can’t do much for another couple years, and even then it’s hard to figure how you break a cabal of billionaires. They’re doing this because they can.

    And it is likely that the trophy and confetti and champagne will rain down on someone like Ricketts or Ricketts himself who will get away with it. The Dodgers could have a $300M payroll if they want, and they’re almost certainly the NL favorites. They may find the Yankees or Cleveland when they get there. You could extend this out, because really any team these days can spend what it wants. They didn’t.

    On the surface, due to my personal feelings on the city of Boston after living there for three years, another Red Sox championship left my food tasting like dust. But deeper, it’s somewhat righteous. Because the Red Sox didn’t sit out last year’s free agent market and got themselves a J.D. Martinez. They could go even higher, but money didn’t seem to be filthy lucre to them. Sadly, they seemed to have been the only ones.

    And it could be the Cubs. A healthy Darvish and a healthy Bryant makes a bigger difference to this team than a lot realize. They only need solid or expected contributions from pretty much everyone else, and maybe one surprise, to be zeroing in on 100 wins. The playoffs can be anything, as we know.

    And should it result in the second parade in four seasons, something we couldn’t even conceive of just 10 years ago. Ricketts will be up there about being true to their plan, how they knew all along, that all we had to do was trust their work and the system. That’s what he’ll be selling, at least.

    And it will all be horseshit.

    They’re on this plan because Ricketts didn’t give Theo and Jed any other choice. Those two didn’t want it this way I’m almost sure of that. They didn’t do this because they had to. They did it because Tom could. And another championship lets him get away with it. To smugly smile at all of us who couldn’t do anything about it, or more likely, forgot about it entirely while being swept up in the season and playoff frenzy. That will be part of the moment I still dream about every day. That’s how they always get away with it. It’s the perfect crime. 

    I’ve got seven months to figure out how to deal with it, if it comes to that. I may need them all.  

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