Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Baseball

  • Series Preview – Royals vs. White Sox: You Can’t Steal First

    Series Preview – Royals vs. White Sox: You Can’t Steal First

    vs.

    RECORDS: Royals 5-10   White Sox 5-9

    GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday at 7:10, Wednesday 1:10

    TV: NBCSN Monday and Wednesday, WGN Tuesday

    WAITING FOR MAHOMES: Royals Review

    PROBABLE PITCHERS

    Heath Fillmyer vs. Ervin Santana

    Jorge Lopez vs. Reynaldo Lopez

    Brad Keller vs. Lucas Giolito

    PROBABLE ROYALS LINEUP

    Whit Merrifield – RF

    Adalberto Mondesi – SS

    Alex Gordon – LF

    Jorge Soler – RF

    Ryan O’Hearn – 1B

    Hunter Dozier – 3B

    Chris Owings – 2B

    Martin Maldanado – C

    Billy Hamilton – CF

     

    PROBABLY SOX LINEUP

    Leury Garcia – CF

    Yoan Moncada – 3B

    Jose Abreu – DH

    Yonder Alonso – 1B

    Eloy Jimenez – LF

    Tim Anderson – SS

    Welington Castillo – C

    Daniel Palka – RF

    Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

     

    After getting Eloy Jimenez on the board, and taking two of three from the vaunted but decrepit (at the moment) Yankees, the White Sox have a brief pitstop at home to face the drain-scraping Royals before heading back out onto the road. Not that the Sox are all that concerned with “momentum” or getting on a roll this year, but this would seem an excellent chance to string a couple series victories together after having their brains scooped out by the Rays last week.

    Of course, that task gets a little trickier when it starts with Ervin Santana and his magical gasoline-ball. Santana was clubbed hard by the Rays last out, giving up seven runs in less than four innings of work. Santana was his own worst enemy with walks last out, which were a major problem for him in a brief cameo in Minnesota last year. This is what happens when you have just a place-holder in your rotation, as until some kid comes up to claim that spot you’re just going to have to white-knuckle through a lot of his turns.

    Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t been much better, as he’ll be seeking his first quality start of the season in a Lopez Battle on Tuesday. Lopez also has been allergic to the strikezone, walking four in each of his starts. And in a continuing theme, Lucas Giolito will also try to spasm the right arm of an ump again, as after a promising season-opening start in KC he’s put up eight walks in two starts since. Perhaps the sky blue of the Royals will rekindle something in him.

    The problem for the Sox is that the Royals aren’t the soft-landing, at least for pitchers, that you would have thought. Six regulars are putting up 100+ wRC+ at the moment, led by Alex Gordon who I could have sworn misplaced his intestines two years ago and would fold in on himself at the sight of any half-decent fastball. He’s cut out a huge chuck of Ks and is hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. The difference appears to be a great improvement in plate discipline, as he’s cut down on the amount of swings at pitches out of the zone while upping the swings and contact in it, and well a .640 SLG is the result.

    He’s not alone as Merrifield and Mondesi are thwacking the ball everywhere, though with far less discipline. My former special boy Jorge Soler has cracked four homers, including a couple that should have probably counted double. Looks like we’re in the midst of a the few weeks per season when Soler is healthy and paying attention. Even Hunter Dozier is slugging near .500.

    But that doesn’t mean the pitching staff can’t give away whatever the offense takes. Because they can and do. They’ve gotten decent work out of Brad Keller, who’s been able to dance his way around walking nearly five guys for every nine innings. That won’t last though. Fillmyer has only made one start but it wasn’t particularly pretty, as the unholy force that the Mariners are apparently tagged him for five runs in just three innings. Jorge Lopez has also benefitted from extreme luck on contact, and again, appears poised to go hurling over a cliff like Super Dave Osborne at any moment.

    If the starters can get it to Jason Diekmann or Ian Kennedy, Royals fans can generally emerge from their bunker. When they can’t it’s time to stock up on canned food and bottled water. They’ve already tried 10 other goofuses, and it’s not going well. So you’re never out of it against the Royals.

    Royals and then Tigers and Orioles. Only for the diehards, but also a fertile ground to harvest some wins.

  • Series Wrap – Sox Take Two Of Three From 2/3rds Of The Yankees

    Series Wrap – Sox Take Two Of Three From 2/3rds Of The Yankees

    When I volunteered to write my first ever Sox recap for FFUD, I assumed the title would be something along the lines of: “Sox Get Nuked From Orbit By Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez,” and not what I actually wrote above.  Granted, the Yankees were almost hilariously undermanned for this series but by crackey I’m taking it.  The series itself ran the gamut of major Sox storylines this season, from Moncada’s continued elevation of the ball to Eloy finally smoking two out of the park, to Rodon finding the placement of his slider.  It wasn’t a perfect series win by any means, but at this point we can’t be too picky.

     

    TO THE BULLETS!

     

    -Firstly, we get to talk about ELOY!  Not only did he finally mash his first tater of the season to dead center off a 92 mph rising fastball from JA Happ, but then he followed it up with a towering blast to left center field that was estimated at 445 feet.  Total for the series he went 3-9, bringing his average up to .288 for the season.  Also important were the two professional-ass walks he took in the rubber match which helped Tim Anderson rack up a bunch of RBIs when he hit his series clinching granny today.

    -Yoan Moncada continues to just do work at the plate, going 4-11 with a couple of runs and RBIs.  More importantly, he only struck out once the entire series bringing his K-rate down to 24%. He’s seeing more pitches so far, and the eye test continues to be very positive.  Tim Anderson didn’t have many hits this series, but he made one of them count, taking an 0-1 cutter off Masa Tanaka opposite field for his first career grand slam.  He’s now batting a cool .429 this season with an obscene 1.093 OPS.  This is clearly sustainable throughout an entire season, and Tim should begin clearing space on his mantle for his first ever hitting title.

    -While I expected this team to run more, I did not expect to be typing the words “James McCann stole a base,” which he did.  Also, professional speed demon Jose Abreu managed to swipe two bags this Sunday on Kyle Higashioka, who now must be treated for PTSD after allowing five Sox stolen bases today.

    -Carlos Rodon started shaky today, but pulled a full Verlander by getting better and better each inning he was out there.  By the 5th and 6th innings he had complete feel for his slider, and was placing it on the outside 1/8th of the plate at will.  The fact that it took him until the 5th and 6th inning to get that feel is concerning, but I’ll take it for the time being.

    -Ivan Nova deserved a better fate than what he got Saturday after Yolmer continued his shaky play at the cornerstone.  He booted a tailor made double play in the 7th inning that would’ve allowed Nova to escape the inning with no earned runs and a no-decision.  Instead he got the loss and the Sox were flummoxed by a returning CC Sabathia.  Such is baseball.

    -Lucas Giolito was back to his old tricks again in the first game, walking 4 in 5 innings while somehow managing to throw 100+ pitches, only 62 of which were for strikes.  Granted the weather looked miserable from my seat at the bar in Vegas, drinking some cocktail made out of gin and smoke, but if he’s going to have a place in the rebuild going forward then its time for him to prove it by looking more like the version we saw in his start against the Royals.

    -Next up brings our old friends the Royals back into town, where Ervin Santana will look to bring his ERA below 10. Onwards!

     

    -On a side note, I’d like to thank Sam for letting me dip my toe into the Sports Blogging pool.  I’ve been following his stuff since he sold programs outside the UC ages ago and I’m stoked to be adding whatever I can to this awesome site here.  Cheers!

  • Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Angels Before It Snows In April: The Pen Is Mightier Than The Sword…For Sepuku

    Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Angels Before It Snows In April: The Pen Is Mightier Than The Sword…For Sepuku

    It only ended up being a two-game series, as Game Of Thrones marketing has gone completely overboard and unhinged and decided to promote tonight’s season premiere with THUNDERSNOW. It was a series that saw Mike Trout stay home, Trevor Cahill not take the bump, and yet the Cubs only got one win. It doesn’t quite feel like enough, as two wins were certainly on offer. Let’s run through it.

    The Two Obs

    -No point in moving any farther along without addressing the bullpen, once again. The Cubs will have a streak soon, or they will need one to get back comfortably over .500. And yet it feels like to do that, they’ll have to overcome a “bullpen game,” or two, like they almost did yesterday.

    I’m something of a hypocrite, which you knew by now. I’m a proponent of not really breaking the bank for relievers, because the scenery is layered with palookas and punters who throw 95 and show up for 45 pitches per week. You can find them anywhere. You’re supposed to be able to produce them relatively easily, because your system is littered with hard-throwers who can’t find a third pitch or the stamina to be starters. The Cubs so far have produced only Carl Edwards Jr. and his mind full of spiders, but that’s another talk for another time.

    But it’s still galling the relievers the Cubs have tried to move forward with on the cheap. Brad Brach has been declining for three years. Randy Rosario was terrible last year, and pretty much just given a job this year even though there’s no discernible stuff. Tim Collins is the name the EA generator gives to some player that’s too far in the future in franchise mode to be real. At least he appears to have stuff, somewhat, unlike Rosario.

    These aren’t guys the Cubs thought they saw something to unlock that other teams didn’t. Pitchers that if they leaned on a pitch or hadn’t before or a tweak to a motion to get more movement or velocity. They’re seat-fillers. Rosario is especially galling, because he didn’t strike anyone out or get grounders last year and yet here we are still trying to make fetch happen.

    There’s not much Joe can do, because these are the guys he has to go to.

    -Hendricks’s slow start continues. He couldn’t find his fastball at all, and when he has to throw only change-ups that pitch isn’t as effective as it’s not playing off anything. He also hasn’t mixed in his curve at all which he said he wanted to do, but that just might be a good thing. Nothing to see here, yet.

    -On the opposite side, Cole Hamels put on his second-straight strong start, never in trouble after the Cubs gave him three runs in the firs. His velocity wasn’t where it was last year, but with a good mix of changes and curves and cutters, and dotting that fastball, it doesn’t matter.

    -Fuck off forever, Pujols.

    -Contreras carried them on Friday, but he had a woeful AB in the ninth yesterday. With a base open and your run not mattering at all, you have to know you’re not getting anything in the zone. Especially as the Angels had been going to sliders out of the zone on him all day with Stratton. Know time and place and all that.

    -Schwarber can’t catch a break, but he also looks as lost as he has in his career. He was just fighting off fastballs yesterday, and still ahead of the breaking stuff. In the end, it only amounts to a bad week, and now a new one.

    Onwards…

  • Series Preview – Angels vs. Cubs: Shorn Of All The Fun

    Series Preview – Angels vs. Cubs: Shorn Of All The Fun

    vs.

    RECORDS: Angels 7-6   Cubs 4-8

    GAMETIMES: Friday-Sunday 1:20pm

    TV: NBCSN Friday, ABC Saturday, WGN Sunday

    PROBABLE PITCHERS

    Tyler Skaggs vs. Cole Hamels

    Chris Stratton vs. Kyle Hendricks

    Trevor Cahill vs. Tyler Chatwood

    Probable Angels Lineup

    David Fletcher – LF

    Andrelton Simmons – SS

    Albert Pujols – 1B

    Jonathan Lucroy – C

    Taylor Ward – 3B

    Kole Calhoun – RF

    Zack Cozart – 2B

    Peter Bourjos – CF

     

    Probable Cubs Lineup

    Albert Almora – CF

    Kris Bryant – 3B

    Anthony Rizzo – 1B

    Javier Baez – SS

    Willson Contreras – C

    David Bote – 2B

    Mark Zagunis – RF

    Kyle Schwarber – LF

    Note: Against right-handed starters Sat. and Sun. expect to see Heyward in center with Descalso at 2nd and Zobrist in right

    After winning their first series of the year, the Cubs turn right around and host the Angels of Somewhere, a team shorn of all that makes it interesting. Which is fine, because the Cubs need wins so they’ll take boring as they can get for now. And they’re not without drama themselves.

    We’ll start with the Northside Nine, who last night lost their backup catcher Victor Caratini to a broken hand for at least a month, and more likely six weeks. Of course this turned Cubs twitter, always anxious to paint their lives as a dark, dark room, in to the most obnoxious Cure fans around. Why oh why they pontificated, didn’t the Cubs sign a third catcher? Why must we suffer with Taylor Davis for a month? Please, unleash me from this hell and give me the sweet release of the great darkness beyond!

    Fuckin’ eh, shut up.

    One, almost no team has three catchers. Any catcher goes down, you’re almost certainly going to have to toss some tomato can out there once a week. Yes, I remember 2016 as well. That was an accident, because Montero and Ross were signed the season before you’ll recall, which is also the season Willson Contreras started tearing up the minors out of really nowhere. He didn’t give the Cubs much choice. That’s generally how you end up with three catchers.

    Third, even the max six weeks time frame, that’s probably at most 12 Caratini starts. How much value, even with how well he was playing, do you think Victor Caratini has over 12 starts? Yes, Taylor Davis blows and he’s got a little league swing, but he’s also not a double-amputee. I’m fairly sure he can catch the ball. This isn’t the disaster Cubs fans are so desperate to make it.

    Anyway, other than that, after getting Jose Quintana on track and at least moving Yu Darvish toward it, it would be lovely if Kyle Hendricks followed the trend on Saturday, especially with Lester out, and especially as the Chatwood Experience awaits on Sunday. A battery of Tyler Chatwood-Taylor Davis. Remember kids, the Cubs have new executive suites!

    To the Angels. Before the year, you probably thought, “Hey! Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani at Wrigley! That’s exciting!” Well sorry, fucko. Ohtani isn’t back until May and Trout tweaked a groin earlier in the week while the Angels were stuffing the Brewers. He won’t play today and is iffy for the weekend.

    Those aren’t the only injury concerns for the Halos. Andrew Heaney went boom again, and Justin Upton ended up with turf toe in the season’s first week and is out until possibly July. Certainly June. So yeah, stripped of all that, this becomes a very ordinary outfit. Unless watching Albert Pujols try and scramble his unorganized collection of bones around first base in an NL park entertains you, and it should. The grounds crew should have a large dustpan nearby.

    That hasn’t stopped them from winning six in a row over the Rangers and Brewers, mystifying the Cubs I’m sure. But it can also be inspiration, as the Angels started 1-6 and this early that’s how quickly things can look rosy again. It’s hard to know what the expectations were for this team, as they look to be well behind the A’s and Astros in the division, which doesn’t put you anywhere near a wildcard.

    Without Trout, absolutely no one in this lineup is hitting. As you know, Pujols died five years ago, Kalhoun is striking out a third of the time, Simmons might as well go up there with a coloring book, and Justin Bour seems to only have mastered two of the three true outcomes so far, and that’s the two where nothing happens. Tommy La Stella had a nice half-week there for a minute, but that’s been about it offensively for the Angels. Zack Cozart is hitting .033. That’s a thing.

    Which means they’ve had to do it with pitching, though it’s also hard to see how. They’re getting more miracles out of Trevor Cahill, who looks like he struggles to actually throw the ball 60 feet but here we are. Matt Harvey has gone back to being the utter disaster he was for two years before a half-revival in Cincinnati, but don’t worry it’s not like anyone can party in Southern California or anything. He’s given up 14 runs in his last two starts. Skaggs has been ok, but he doesn’t strike anyone out nor does he get a ton of grounders so one wonders how long this will last. That puts them praying for the safe return of Heaney, which is Beckett-ian.

    Which means it’s been yeoman work from the pen, and that is the case. Hansel Robles (who uses the Undertaker theme and hence is now my favorite player), Ty Buffrey, and Cam Bedrosian have been unhittable so far, and Justin Anderson and Cody Allen are carrying 0.00 ERAs as well. They’re already third in the AL in appearances, and fifth in innings. But they also have the best pen ERA and fifth-best FIP. They don’t want to go to this well too often but while it’s working no one’s going to bitch.

    If there’s a team that Hendricks can find it against, it should be this one. The offense probably needs to do its work in the first five innings, and that might be harder than you’d first think with both Skaggs and Cahill going. But then again, it’s fucking Skaggs and Cahill. Let’s get a move on already.

  • Series Preview- White Sox vs. Yankees: Hi Everybody!

    Series Preview- White Sox vs. Yankees: Hi Everybody!

     vs.

    RECORDS:  White Sox 3-8, Yankees 5-7

    GAMETIMES: Friday, 6:05, Saturday 12:05, Sunday, 12:05

    TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

    EVEN THE BLOGGERS ARE INJURED: Pinstripe Alley

    PROBABLE STARTERS

    Lucas Giolito vs. J.A. Happ

    Ivan Nova vs. CC Sabathia

    Carlos Rodon vs. Domingo German

    Probable White Sox Lineup

    1. Leury Garcia (S) RF

    2. Tim Anderson (R) SS

    3. Jose Abreu (R) 1B/DH

    4. Welington Castillo (R) C

    5. Yoan Moncada (S) 3B

    6. Eloy Jimenez (R) LF

    7. Yonder Alonso (L) DH/1B

    8. Jose Rondon (R) 2B

    9. Adam Engel (R) CF

    Probable Yankees Lineup

    1. Brett Gardner (L) CF

    2. Aaron Judge (R) RF

    3. Luke Voit (R) 1B

    4. Gary Sanchez (R) DH

    5. Gleyber Torres (R) SS

    6. DJ LeMahieu (R) 2B

    7. Clint Frazier (R) LF

    8. Gio Urshela (L) 3B

    9. Austin Romine (R) C

    If ever there was such an indictment on what a nightmare of an offseason the White Sox had, even outside of the most obvious of fuck ups that I’d rather just not think about anymore but am constantly forced to, it’s the fact that even with half of their ideal starting lineup on the mend, the  Yankees lineup looks better overall than their own. Just since the season started, the Yankees have placed Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, and Troy Tulowitzki on the IL, and that was in addition to Didi Gregorious and Aaron Hicks who both started the year there. Even if you don’t count the remnants of Tulo as an ideal starter for the Yankees, that’s still four guys who would be everyday players for them when healthy who are, instead, not healthy.

    And yet I look up and down that Yankees lineup and find plenty of room for jealousy, primarily for the fact that they don’t have to watch Adam Engel take at-bats and instead have a real hitter playing in CF, even if Brett Gardner hasn’t been a major threat since I was in college. I’ll also take what Gary Sanchez brings to the table at DH over the Daniel Palka Experience everyday of the week. And of course a superstar in Aaron Judge would be fine as well, strikeouts and all.

    On top of the Yankees injuries in the lineup, their arms have been bitten by the injury bug as well. Luis Severino looked like he was on the ascent to become one of the best in the game back in 2017, but 2018 wasn’t quite as kind (he was still good, but didn’t have ace level stuff again) and after he started 2019 on the IL, he suffered a setback earlier this week that shut him down for another six weeks. Along with him, bullpen mercenary Dellin Betances found his way to the IL before the season officially started and he isn’t expected back until the end of the month at the earliest. Then there is CC Sabathia, who has been forced to sit out thus far but will make his season debut on Saturday.

    So if you’re keeping count, that’s eight players who figured to play either a major role or a priority backup role for this team that have been hurt, and yet the Yankees find themselves in a decent position, still just two games below .500 and in second place in the AL East, thanks in large part to the righteous embarrassment that the Red Sox have started the season with. If they can take care of business against the Sox this weekend, they could be in a really good spot early on despite all the misfortune.

    For the Sox, the key to this weekend is going to be two-fold. Primarily, they need Lucas Giolito to be the version of himself that pitched in their third game against the Royals (and early on against the Mariners) and not the 2018 version that started to creep out just a bit in his last start. While I still wouldn’t call what he did against Seattle “bad,” the lack of fastball command has to be considered concerning at the very least. His curveball has been nasty, so if he can just locate the damn fastball and keep it around 93 MPH, that one-two combo is probably enough for him to start on his path toward being a true major league starter.

    Secondarily, they’re going to need the talent to overcome this asinine experiment that is Rick Renteria‘s left-handed pitcher lineup. I understand the desire to play the matchups, and that inclination is the correct one, but any time that goal sees you bat Yoan Monada fifth in your lineup and Welington Castillo CLEANUP (not a typo, that has really been happening in 2019), you need to re-evaluate how you’re going about this. Moncada did struggle a bit against lefties last year, but hitting right handed is his natural spot, and the lack of pop he had from that side of the plate in 2018 was basically an anomaly that even he couldn’t figure out.

    Also, since this season doesn’t matter for anyone but him and like three other guys, he needs to get the maximum number of AB’s possible. Especially given the tear he’s on to start the year, he needs to be second or third in the order every day. And move Eloy up too, because he’s one of the guys for whom this season matters, and the maximum AB’s sentiment applies to him as well. If you slid Castillo down to 6 and went Monada-Abreu-Eloy in your 3-4-5 holes, is this lineup really missing a beat? Probably not.

    Instead, we will watch this lineup get dominated by J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia because there are only two real hitters in the top four batting spots, and I can already picture one of these games ending with the Sox down by one, Anderson on second base and Moncada in the on deck circle. Because that’s the White Sox’ luck in 2019.

  • Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Pirates: And There Was Much Rejoicing

    Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Pirates: And There Was Much Rejoicing

    A series win. A very good start. These things were late to the party for the Cubs this season, but they’re here now. And while most of Cubdom seems intent on bending and turning and balancing to tear down the wins, the Cubs put up 10 runs on a very good starter in Jameson Taillon, survived what is a pretty good Pirates staff for two wins. If you thought they were going to get all the games back to .500 at once, I hate to explain how things work. It’s a process.

    Let’s clean it up.

    The Two Obs

    -Jose Quintana said he wanted to use his change-up more. We didn’t see that in Milwaukee, partly because he wasn’t around long enough and when he was he was mostly turning around to look in the distance. He threw 13 of them tonight, which was more than 10% of his offerings, he got six swings and four whiffs from it. Very encouraging. Of course, everything was working tonight. Dotting his fastball, getting the curve over. I suppose the real test is when something isn’t working. But hey, this is a good step.

    -The Cubs are averaging over six runs per game and Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, haven’t really done dick. That’s encouraging.

    -Kyle Schwarber has struck out in seven of his last eight ABs, which is less than encouraging. He’s getting pelted with breaking pitches, and he’s going over the top of them pretty much every time. That’s fine with lefties, but is less so when it comes from righties as it has the past two nights. But hey, it’s just a stretch of three games. Let’s not go nuts here.

    -Len and JD were mentioning on the broadcast how much more Jason Heyward is using his legs in his swing. It’s quite apparent. Maybe that’s a real change.

    -Cishek has appeared in half of the Cubs games, so at least we’re still on that pace. He should be dust by Labor Day.

    -Something has been made about the Cubs’ pen scoreless streak, but to me it’s kind of horseshit because they did let inherited runners score last night. Earned runs for relievers is always something a bit misleading. And when they took the lead Monday to the wire, they had a touchdown lead at least to work with. Not that that’s stopped them from self-immolating before. Mighty oaks from little acorns, I guess.

    -I think Joe Maddon was just cold.

    Onwards…

  • Eloy Is Caught In-Between, And Yu Seems To Want To Move There

    Eloy Is Caught In-Between, And Yu Seems To Want To Move There

    I can always tell the mood of Sox fans by the angry texts Fifth Feather sends me. And as I’ve said, I’m only dabbling in Sox writing to annoy the piss out of him. But early in the season, he’s decided to get worked up about Eloy Jimenez. Certainly a 79 wRC+ or 83 DRC+, whichever nerd counter you prefer, is not what he or anyone had envisioned. And for Sox fans, wanting to make Cubs fans ache even more immediately is always a burning desire. Patience gets thinner when that’s an element.

    More worrying is that Jimenez is making some pretty awful contact. Half of it has been on the ground, and only 13.8% of his contact has been hard. It would be one thing if he was unlucky and getting nipped and bitten by the BABIP Dragon. That is not the case so far.

    It’s not hard to see what’s happening. Eloy is swinging a lot (50.6% of pitches, 45% is average), swinging a lot at pitches out of the zone 37%, average 29%) and not making contact a whole lot on any pitch (53% outside the zone, 66% overall, both well south of average). And it’s a classic combination that pitchers are using to attack him.

    Here’s where Eloy is whiffing at fastballs:

    And here’s where he’s whiffing on breaking balls:

    His whiff percentages are pretty hideous when it comes to sliders and curves, and clearly he’s worried about being beat upstairs by heat that he’s going after everything that looks like it…until it ends up borrowing into the left-handed batters’ box. This is what happens to young hitters. You have to prove you can handle one before you stop seeing the other.

    Most will tell you the way out of this is to just use the middle of the field and the opposite way. Give yourself time on the fastball and not be ahead of a breaking ball that way. And the past three games might be glimmers of hope. Monday, Jimenez singled twice up the middle, both on a fastball on a slider. Tuesday, Eloy’s first three ABs all ended in hard contact to either center or right, until he rolled over a single in the 8th. Yesterday saw another single to right.

    It’s a process, but as he gets more comfortable I would think you would see louder and louder contact the other way, up the middle. And then he’ll start to swing it around the field, which is when the real fun starts.

    -On the other side of town, as we lunge and bend to try and feel good about Yu Darvish starts, there’s been an alarming component of his last two.

    Here’s a sample of what he was throwing in the first inning in his start in Atlanta:

    Then in the fourth when he was pulled.

    We see 93 and 94 turn into 92. Not a huge problem, but after only four innings of work somewhat curious. Let’s go to last night. Here’s Starling Marte‘s first AB:

    94 and 95, almost 96 even. Now here’s the 5th, an inning before he was pulled:

    91 and 92. That’s an even steeper drop-off. Joe Maddon told everyone after both games that he wanted to get Yu out while he could “feel good.” This ignores the fact that Yu is a living, breathing adult and probably knows exactly how he pitched. Yes, Yu is a thinker, and a quirky guy, and all the rest of it. But I would take some convincing that Joe didn’t see this drop in velocity each time.

    Is he trying to burn it out in the early innings? Is he still building up arm-endurance from missing three-quarters of last year? Is the arm injury playing a role? Questions that don’t have answers yet.

    Also, Yu is throwing that fastball far more than he has in years past, 47% of the time when for the past six years he’s pitched he’s kept that around 40%. We haven’t seen a sinker at all this season, which he used to throw 15-20% of the time. His curve really is his chocked back slider, but that has less effect when his fastball’s velocity keeps moving down to meet it as the game moves along.

    It also seems that his first start has spooked him a bit, because the past two has seen him keep his breaking stuff in the zone a lot more. Which is fine to an extent, but to get whiffs your slider/curve needs to duck out of the zone eventually. His slider produced three whiffs on nine swings, his curve nary a one. Which is actually better than it was in Atlanta, where his slider only got three whiffs on 12 swings.

    It’s another process, and I guess it’s trending in the right direction ever so subtly? But he’s going to have to find more gas in the fifth and sixth innings, or you would hope he does.

  • Series Recap – Rays Sweep White Sox: You Better Believe That’s A Paddlin’

    Series Recap – Rays Sweep White Sox: You Better Believe That’s A Paddlin’

    The thing about catching three of the four max starters the Rays will use this year is that they’re all pretty good. So there’s a chance you’re going to spend three or four days struggling for offense. If you combine that with your starters having a communal trip to the zoo, well, you just might get swept to the tune of 24-7 over three games. Which is what the Sox managed this week. Maybe the daylight didn’t help?

    -So progress isn’t always linear. After two starts with minimal walks, Carlos Rodon couldn’t find the plate much on Monday. I may be new here but walking more than a batter per inning isn’t going to usually result in anything people leave the park feeling good about. On the plus side, no extra-base hits suggest when he isn’t making his own trouble, there won’t be that much trouble.

    -You might not get the joy I do out of this, but I like to think every homer Tommy Pham hits is a middle finger to the Cardinals, and I think there’s a part in all of us that can enjoy that. That said, he got some aid today from a wind that was howling out to right and carried more than one pop-up into something meaningful.

    -Don Cooper is going to have his hands full between Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez. The latter has walked 12 in his three starts, which also happens to match his ERA at the moment. Once again, like his first start, Lopez didn’t feature much of an offspeed pitch, as he was fastball-slider. He threw 17 change-ups out of his 104 pitches, which only produced five swings and no whiffs. If teams are just going to spit on that, there’s not a lot of places to go.

    -Some signs of life from Eloy Jimenez, with five singles. I have more on this tomorrow, but he’s classically caught in-between at the moment.

    -I kind of wish they were recording Laurence Holmes’s reaction to Avisail Garcia’s big series.

    -Tyler Glasnow got 18 outs, 11 of them via strikeout. There are plenty predicting he’s going to have a big year and make the Pirates think about that Chris Archer trade a lot. You can see why today. Here’s a difference between the two starters today. Glasnow only threw 17 curveballs, but he got five whiffs out of the seven swings at it. He also only threw eight sliders, which produced seven whiffs total. That’s some gross stuff.

     

     

  • Series Preview – Pirates vs. Cubs: And I’m Coming Off This Long And Winding Road

    Series Preview – Pirates vs. Cubs: And I’m Coming Off This Long And Winding Road

    vs.

    RECORDS: Pirates 5-3   Cubs 2-7

    GAMETIMES: Monday 1:20, Wednesday and Thursday at 7:05

    TV: ABC Monday, WGN Wednesday, NBCSN Chicago Thursday

    THE CONFLUENCE: Bucs Dugout

    PROBABLE PITCHERS

    Jameson Taillon vs. Jon Lester

    Jordan Lyles vs. Yu Darvish

    Joe Musgrove vs. Jose Quintana

    Probable Pirates Lineup

    Adam Frazier – 2B

    Starling Marter – CF

    Francisco Cervelli – C

    Josh Bell – 1B

    Piece Of Shit – 3B

    Melky Cabrera – RF

    JB Shuck – LF

    Erik Gonzalez – SS

    (note: the Bucs haven’t faced a lefty this year so not sure how that will change. Frazier and Shuck likely come out for Kevin Newman and Pablo Reyes). 

    Cubs Lineup

    Ben Zobrist – RF

    Kris Bryant – 3B

    Anthony Rizzo – 1B

    Javier Baez – SS

    Kyle Schwarber – LF

    Willson Contreras – C

    Daniel Descalso – 2B

    Jason Heyward – CF

    Well, this should be quite the atmosphere, no? Not only is it the first time Cubs fans will congregate since Tom Ricketts sat on the front office’s hands for them, as well as bitched about the money they don’t have while opening up exclusive clubs left and right in Wrigley, but the Cubs decided to put extra hot sauce on this one by biffing their opening road trip to the tune of a 2-7 record. Usually Opening Day is one big hug. This one is going to have some grinding teeth.

    Then again, there’s always grinding teeth when the Pirates are involved, as they can’t seem to shake their hold-me-back ways. They kicked it off this season when Chris Archer filled his diaper yesterday after Derek Dietrich stared at a home run, one that landed somewhere near Harrisburg, so Archer threw behind him. The Pirates got put in their place of course when Yasiel Puig wanted to fight them all and no one had the tires to take him up on the offer. Then again, would you?

    It seems the Bucs are always a tightly-wound bunch placing chips on their own shoulders. It’s an organization that is always Sean Rodriguez beating up a cooler, making a big show of doing nothing. And that’s what the Pirates do, nothing. Their owner can’t be bothered to augment what should be a pretty good team, and he hasn’t in five seasons now. They collect their revenue sharing, put just enough of a product out there where you squint and see a contender with one or two moves that never come. And then we do it all over again the next season.

    Because this team could be good. It throws a hell of a starting staff at you, with budding star Taillon, Archer, Trevor Williams, and Musgrove (part of the Gerrit Cole deal). It’s not the best rotation, but it isn’t far off, and it comes with a lot of angry fastballs. Some of them aren’t even at hitters!

    The pen hasn’t started the year sending hearts aflutter. Felipe Vasquez is always a real problem, but no one else there has been able to find the plate (it can happen to others, people). If you’re bringing out Francisco Liriano from the bullpen, you’ve pretty much admitted you’re ready for an adventure every day. They strike a lot of people out (everyone does but the Cubs), but they don’t get there easily.

    The lineup is very boom-or-bust right now, though getting six games in against whatever the Reds are tossing out there certainly is a help. Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, and old friend Melky Cabrera are crushin’ fools left and right so far on the nascent season. Marte, Cervelli, and Kang are wandering lost in the woods. Let’s just be relieved there’s no Christian Yelich here.

    The Cubs will be lucky to get two of these in, as Wednesday night’s forecast looks especially gross. Probably should move that one up to the off-day tomorrow, but I also can’t remember when a game was actually moved up a day. After seeing two division winners last week, the Cubs get 12 games against teams that aren’t supposed to be anything more than middling. Maybe they can get healthy that way.

    Albert Almora seems to have already lost his starting job in center, as Heyward has moved over the past couple days to accommodate Descalso at second. Is that where Ian Happ will go eventually? Who knows? Maybe Joe Maddon is just riding the Heyward wave. They don’t last long so you have to.

    Enough of this happy horseshit. Time to get the season back on track.

     

  • Series Preview – Rays vs. White Sox: Missing Out On The New Wave

    Series Preview – Rays vs. White Sox: Missing Out On The New Wave

    vs.

    RECORDS: Rays 7-3   Sox 3-5

    GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 1:10pm

    TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday and Wednesday

    DOING 40 IN THE LEFT LANE WITH THE BLINKER ON: D Rays Bay

    PROBABLE PITCHERS

    Ian Snell vs. Carlos Rodon

    Charlie Morton vs. TBD

    Tyler Glasnow vs. Reynaldo Lopez

    Probably Rays Lineup

    Austin Meadows – RF

    Yandy Diaz – 1B

    Tommy Pham – LF

    Daniel Robertson – 2B

    Avisail Garcia – DH

    Mike Zunino – C

    Kevin Kiermaier – CF

    Willy Adames – SS

    Christian Arroyo – 3B

    (Meadows, Diaz, and Robertson platoon, so Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi are likely back in against a righty)

     

    Probable Sox Lineup

    Leury Garcia – CF

    Yoan Moncada – 3B

    Jose Abreu – DH

    Yonder Alonso – 1B

    Eloy Jimenez – LF

    Daniel Palka – RF

    Welington Castillo – C

    Tim Anderson – SS

    Yolmer Sanches – 2B

     

    When facing the Rays, you usually get to see the path baseball will probably take and get an “opener” or two (Lord knows I could use an “opener” today). But the Sox will get three of their actual starters this week, in three matinees meant to avoid the April chills at night. And one of them just happens to be the reigning Cy Young winner. So that’s nice.

    The Rays have jumped out in front of the AL East, with the Red Sox having something of a wobble in their season-opening West Coast trip and all the Yankees being broken. And they’ve done it by their rotation being excellent so far, with all of Snell, Glasnow, Morton, and Yonny Chirinos throwing darts out there. Snell, Morton, and Chirinos are all striking out over 10 per nine innings, and Glasnow isn’t walking anyone to make up for his still-good-but-not-as-good strikeout numbers. Which is weird coming from Tampa, as they’ve sort of specialized in recent years how to get around not having any rotation at all. This is Dylan going electric, man!

    It also helps to have three relievers who haven’t given up a run as the Rays do in Jose Alvarado (and his magic fastball), Diego Castillo, and Adam Kolarek, along with Jalen Beeks (Wonderful news, Beeks!).

    Which is peachy keen, as the Rays aren’t scoring much, and don’t really project to. They only have 34 runs on the year, which is plenty enough when you’ve only surrendered 19 in 10 games. No other team in the AL has given up less than 26. Diaz, Kiermaier, and Choi are the ones who have started the season hot, but other than that you’re going to be scratching your head at the rest of the lineup. That’s the Rays way. Tommy Pham is here and he’s not complaining yet, but it isn’t May yet either. This team gets by on catching everything though, which they do. That is when their pitchers actually allow a ball in play, which isn’t all that often.

    The Sox will hope Carlos Rodon can build on a very promising start to the season, and Lopez can find it. They’ll take any pitching they can find, as they spent the last two days getting it upside their head from the Mariners. Moncada only had one hit on Saturday and Sunday, so clearly he’s now a bum again. Fifth Feather is already chewing his nails about Eloy, so a breakout from him would be welcomed as well.