Baseball

FFUD’s Baseball Staff Winter Meetings Roundtable

By Sam Fels 1421 0

We pulled together our baseball quadrant–Adam Hess, AJ, Wes French, and yours truly, to gauge where we are as the Winter Meetings heat up.

Welcome FFUD Baseball staff. It’s Winter Meetings time, and I’m surrounded by three Sox fans feeling their oats while I’m the lone, nihilistic Cubs fan. Pretty sweet so far, right? Grandal in tow, and at least what seemed a credible run at Zack Wheeler (although it’s always credible after the fact with the Sox, isn’t it?). Where are you and what would you like to see happen now?

AJ: My initial reaction to missing out on Wheeler basically had a “these fucking idiots did it again” kinda feel to it. Now after looking at how it all played out in the cold light of day I’m happier that the Sox at least had the highest bid (which was creeping towards the Overpay, but whatever it’s not my money).

The Sox still need at least one starter and a right fielder. With the Nats basically saying they can only afford one of the Strasburg/Rendon pair the Sox should hope it’s Rendon (it probably should be, looking at how much the Nats have already spent on pitching) and go all in after Strasburg. If not him, Ryu would be an excellent consolation prize.

Wes: Greetings, and let me open with a sentiment I share with Blake Snell:  I wish it was White Sox slapdick prospect Nick Madrigal heading to TB for Tommy Pham instead of him packing for San Diego. Not sure how my Sox counter parts here feel about little Nicky, but I Say deal him now before he’s a mediocre MLB slap hitter in 2021.

Grandal was a great first step, and while it’s a disappointment to lose out on a guy like Wheeler I think it’s more of a disappointment that he was plan A.  Cole and Strasburg may have told the Sox no thanks from the jump, but they have more than enough of Manny Machado’s money laying around to change minds. The only silver lining here is we haven’t been subjected to Kenny Williams getting on camera to boast about offering a baseball player a contract that didn’t get him signed. I’d be very pleased with Ryu and Keuchel in that order and if they stay all the way out on MadBum.

 You feeling any tingles over Dan Winkler signing for the Cubs, Fels? 

 Fels: Well, honestly unless you’re getting an absolute sure thing in the pen (hello Drew Pomeranz and even he might not be) you’re better off going cheap with guys who have great stuff who you think you can mold. Just line up like nine guys who throw 117 MPH and see if you can’t get five of them to find the plate in your pitching lab. So Winkler seems to be that. But obviously it’s not what I want.

But honestly what I want from the Cubs at these meetings is what I don’t want them to do. Don’t make a rash trade just for the sake of it. Don’t trade one of THE FIVE simply to save Ricketts money down the road. I’m sure there are plenty of good baseball deals for Willson Contreras out there, but you’re also trading what, the second best offensive catcher at worst in the game? With improving framing skills (according to some). With a new mentor as manager. Tread lightly. Basically I’m going to spend the week with my head under a pillow.

 Speaking of Rendon…where is it the Sox would play him, exactly?

 Wes: 2B. Or move Yoan back to 2B. Or RF, I mean he seriously can’t be any worse than the clown show they’ve trotted out there for years. Things in right were so bad in 2019 the usual blog/personalities covering the Sox were pining for the days of Avi Garcia. If Rendon will take your checks you just sign him and sort out positions later. I really don’t think he’d have a problem with 2B at this stage, having been there previously and diminishing a bit at 3B last season. Plus you can roll him into the DH convo and play Leury there in a pinch.

 But lets be real, Rendon is going home to Texas so all that was pointless. I DEMAND STARLING MARTE AND KEONE KELA. Send em Madrigal and Collins and Stiever and be done with it. And Hess, if you wanna argue with me about Stiever (and I have no reason to believe you do but just assume so cause arguing is fun!) you are wrong. There isn’t a pitcher in this org that I’d hold up any deal for that isn’t named Kopech.

 AJ: Wherever he wants to play, basically. He’s a plus defender at third and Moncada can move back to second opening up Wes’s favorite prospect for a trade for a RF or SP.

 Going back to what Wes mentioned, I don’t quite get the hate for MadBum. I get that he’s a mostly fly ball pitcher, but so is Giolito. MadBum improved the spin rate on his four-seamer almost as much as Lucas did, and while he didn’t have the same results the stuff is still there. Sure, he’s logged more innings than anyone else on the market, but it’s because he’s won WS rings. That kind of experience could be greatly beneficial to a young staff like the Sox have.  Plus he’s fucking crazy and I feel like him and Tim Anderson on the same team would turn into the ultimate buddy cop movie. Bare minimum it would be worth watching.

 What do you guys think?

 Wes: I think the miles on MadBum are what turn me off, and I counter your Tim/MadBum with Eloy/Ryu as a the pranksters of the clubhouse angle as more fun than MadBum getting redass at anyone that takes him deep and inevitably hits the Goose. 

 AJ: I’m certainly not against Ryu by any stretch of the imagination, but by the same token of MadBum’s miles are the multiple issues Ryu has had with his shoulder.  I wonder if Hahn pivots now to focus on RF in the market since the best “not Cole or Strasburg” option at SP is off the table. I’m still not sold on Castellanos but honestly I’d take anyone who can un-suck RF at this point.

 Hess: Hi folks, long time listener, first time responder here. Keep Madison Bumgarner away from here, not just because of the mileage, but because his numbers the past few years are alarmingly similar to James Shields’ were the years before he got his big contract in San Diego.

 And while I’m late to this, Wes I have to admit your idea of trading for Tommy Pham is a good one, but trading Madrigal for him would’ve been outrageous. Even if Madrigal is a slap hitter in MLB in 2021 (and don’t kid yourself, he will be in MLB at some point in 2020) his contact abilities and baserunning, plus his defense, are going to make him a certifiable MLB player. He just doesn’t have a ton of power upside with that bat, but he probably will be a 110-115 wRC+ type with plus defense. While I’m certainly not opposed to trading him, I need a hell of a lot more than Tommy Pham there.

 Wes: I’m really not into Castellanos or Ozuna at this point, mostly because the Sox have essentially locked up DH at bats for the next few years by locking up Grandal/Abreu together for at least the next three seasons. They’re definite upgrades over the status quo, but the idea of either remaining in RF for the duration of a deal is kind of horrifying. 

 Fels….I feel like we’re leaving you out in the cold here. I know you’d rather NOT see the big five dealt and I’d rather NOT have to worry about what Hess alluded to in Jerry dealing with Boras as the only hope for SP – yet here we all are. The Cubs are determined to move someone for some reason, so what kind of deal would piss you off least?

 Fels: If I have to stomach one, and I will maintain to my dying day (next week) that the Cubs absolutely should not trade any of their central players, but Contreras for a genuine starting pitcher and maybe another piece probably would keep me from taking a 2×4 to something. The Cubs have a decent fill-in in the form of Caratini, with a promising kid in Amaya not too far behind. Willson is a lot to give up, and you’ll get some debate on whether his defense is eroding or improving. He’s also the emotional heartbeat of this team, but whatever. That one I could handle, barely. Anything else and I’m puking. But the idea of trading him or Bryant for merely prospects to “extend the window” is pure lunacy and any Cubs fan that finds that line of thought acceptable should be defenestrated twice, just to make sure.

 

 

Baseball

Use Me For Your Kingdom’s Cause

By Adam Hess 1282 0

If the early signing of Yasmani Grandal gave you a perhaps unrealistic amount of naive faith that things might be changing for the White Sox when it comes to the free agent market, Zack Wheeler signing in Philadelphia may have brought you crashing back to earth. If you feel as though you match this description, you are not alone. Despite my very best efforts, even after the Grandal signing, to not get my hopes and expectations up for the White Sox this offseason to avoid crushing disappointment like I felt in late February after the Machado ordeal, I started to truly believe the Sox were going to sign Wheeler, both because of my own naiveté and because of some info I was being relayed by folks I know with more connections than I have (which is zero).

The irony of my disappointment with the Sox losing on Wheeler  is that when I saw the contract he signed he signed in Philly was for 5 years and $118-million, my initial reaction was that I was very fine with the White Sox not giving him that kind of money. Then it came out that the Sox actually offered Wheeler more than what he took in the city of Brotherly Love, and he took John Middleton‘s money over Jerry Reinsdorf’s because his fiance is from Jersey. Poor guy.

We can argue until we are blue in the face about what Wheeler’s value is, and after two strong seasons in a row and being worth 4+ fWAR in each of those years before hitting FA at 29, it’s hard to argue that he isn’t worth the money he got, but the injury history and lack of a track record before these last two years was reason enough to be a little gunshy with him. I’m not personally convinced he is a $24M pitcher, let alone the $25M guy the Sox apparently valued him at (Bob Nightengale, who is Kenny William’s media mouthpiece, reported the Sox offered Wheeler 5/$125M), but my opinion is worth jack and shit in this regard. For what it’s worth, FanGraph’s “player value” projections have Wheelers 2018 and 2019 being worth more than $30M each, but I also don’t trust that teams use the same kind of $/WAR valuations that FG does across the board.

In the end, it’s hard to be mad at the White Sox for not getting Wheeler here. They offered him a full million-plus more per year than he accepted, it just wasn’t enough to convince him to pick money over the happiness of his fiance. But based on some of the reports that came out after the fact, like the one from Jon Heyman below, I am a bit suspicious as to whether or not the Sox ever had a real chance.

Obviously we can’t know for sure if my suspicion is true, and I can only go off aforementioned reports and “info” I’ve gotten, but it feels to me like the Sox got used here. For weeks, most of the reports regarding Wheeler tied him to the Sox, Twins, Reds, and/or Rangers, none of which are east coast teams. Then all of the sudden Wednesday morning the Phillies are involved, then not long after that the Rangers aren’t, and then a few hours later Wheeler signs in Philly and we’re told it’s because of his girl and because he preferred east coast. If the Sox offer was indeed 5-years for $125M and he ended up taking less in Philly because it’s closer to where he wanted to be, that feels an awful lot like the Sox were just an ends to a means. “Look, Phillies, I want to come there, but I can get a lot more money in Chicago.” Acceptable offer from preferred location roles in, job done.

Basically what I am getting at here is that, despite White Sox Twitter’s best efforts to turn the White Sox offering a free agent the most money he was offered into a bad thing, because some of these motherfuckers are miserable just to be miserable, the Sox did all they could. Wheeler just viewed them as a backup option if more preferred destinations didn’t get involved with good offers.

Now, if you want to place blame on the Sox for anything in this situation, it has to be that last part. Being a backup option for top tier free agents is clearly not ideal, but it’s a bed the Sox put themselves in. While it’s tough to accept as a fan, the Sox clearly have something of a bad reputation in the market place, and it’s not as if they haven’t earned it. Even with signing Yasmani Grandal to a franchise record contract, they still have a lot more to prove both the free agents and their own fans when it comes to playing in this market, because that record deal was still just $73M, which is relatively routine in today’s MLB. Now sure, the Sox offered Machado $250M and Wheeler $125M, but until those offers go from hypothetical to actual pen on paper, there isn’t a great deal of solace that the team can expect folks to take in them, and it’d be a bit naive of the Sox to assume that players should want to come here just because they’re offering fair market money.

That reputation they have as a cheap organization, mostly among fans, is evident every time they miss on a free agent they clearly wanted. As the reports came out about the Sox offer to Wheeler being more, it was met with various reactions of “of course they’re saying this” or my personal favorite “no one works harder to tell you they just missed than the Sox.” And while being speculative of those reports and/or mocking the Sox for working so hard to to get said reports out there quickly is very fair, I again find it hard to blame the Sox for doing so. If they don’t work to make sure that people know they actually made a fair offer to Wheeler, and one that was actually more than he took, then the hive-mind, assume-the-worst reaction from baseball fans and Sox fans especially would run rampant. Until they shake the reputation, they do admittedly have to run this kind of damage control.

The baseball world writ large seems to recognize that the Sox have the a young core in place that could be the makings of something special. But in the same sense as the contract offers only being significant once they come to fruition, this solid young core may have to deliver a bit more in terms of overall team results before it can serve as the kind of team that other players look at and want to be a part of for reasons other than money. Yasmani Grandal saying he likes what the team is building toward when he signed may help that out a bit, but it clearly has not accomplished it to any extent Rick Hahn and company would hope for. Until the Sox can find someone to take their 9-digit contract offers and/or put an actually competitive team on the field when they mean to, their earned reputation will proceed them.

Baseball

Digging Through The Scrap Heap

By Sam Fels 1514 0

As the Cubs continue to emulate that “C’mon, do something” meme in real life this offseason, there was a charge of excitement, I don’t know why, when the non-tender list came out. Some of that was from Addison Russell being told to do one, which is understandable. Most of it though is from wannabe GMs who see no problem with the raft of pretty good players being cut simply because they were do a lot of money and want to do everything with the first aim being saving money and looking economical. Welcome to baseball before the 2020 season. Isn’t it grand?

But that’s life these days, so it’s probably a good idea to sift through a couple names that are making the rounds in greater Cubdom that could be help not so expensively.

Blake Treinen – The appeal of getting to make a lot of “Les Weinen” Sideshow Bob jokes is a big one, but that doesn’t really help the Cubs on the field. And Treinen might not either. What gets people’s pants to tighten is that Treinen is only one year removed from being the most dominant closer in the game, with the theory being he can’t completely have lost that. Oh, but he could have!

It’s vital to understand that Treinen’s 2018 had some clearly unsustainable numbers. Namely a .230 BABIP and a 4.4% HR/FB ratio. These are things that are simply not going to happen again. 2019 saw a violent market correction (BABIP is violence, Perry Farrell), with those numbers rebounding to .306 and 16.4%. And Treinen’s ERA went with it, to nearly five with a FIP that was over five.

More worryingly, Treinen’s strikeouts shrank from 31% to 22% while his walks more than doubled. That’s not just bad luck, that’s bad stuff. And that is born out by his fastball losing nearly a mile an hour of velocity and his slider losing both vertical and horizontal movement. It led Treinen to go away from it to a cutter that didn’t do all that much except make his outfielders run a lot.

The hope with Treinen would be that you could rediscover how he could regain some of the movement he lost in his slider or cutter, as well as maybe rediscovering the ways his sinker can turn into grounders again (51.2% ground-ball rate in 2018). And maybe that’s what the pitching lab is for, but it doesn’t appear that his arm angle or release point changed all that much. Remember, 2018 is really the outlier in his career, and though 2019 was excessively bad it more accurately reflects what he had been in DC. If he can find more ground-balls he can be effective again, but he maxes out at a Brandon Kintzler and you already have a Brandon Kintzler. Or you did. Could again.

Kevin Pillar – Oh goodie, an older Albert Almora. Just what I always wanted.

Charlie Culberson – You see how people got here, as he also is only a year removed from a 108 wRC+. But he strikes out a ton without providing much pop, and his infield defense grades out as “Haunted House Prop in May.” The Cubs don’t need him in the outfield, so this is going to be another hard pass.

Cesar Hernandez – Probably still expensive even after getting non-tendered, and his offense has been trending the wrong way for a couple seasons. Hernandez used to be able to get buy a little bit with speed, but was down to nine stolen bases last year which dropped his BABIP to .317 from the heights of the .330s before. He does make a ton of contact, though not much of it is hard. Both his walks and strikeout fell off a cliff last year, which is just weird, but he never struck out much before and you can expect that to continue. Still, he can only play second, and the Cubs at the moment have Bote and Happ who can do that and likely Hoerner at some point. Move along.

Steven Souza Jr. – Intriguing, given that he’ll be dirt cheap after missing all of last year with knee problems and having 2018 basically ruined by a couple injuries. In 2017 he hit 30 homers for the Rays, though that’s getting a bit in the rearview now. He couldn’t buy a bucket in 2018, and might as well put the glove on his head when in right field. He also saw a quarter of his fly-balls leave the park in ’17, which isn’t sustainable. Though his career-rate is 19.6%, so it’s not as outlandish as it might normally be. On the plus side, even in his ravaged ’18 season he managed a 44% hard-contact rate, before it became de rigeur. You have no idea what you’d be getting after a year out, but the dream scenario is he’s Castellanos on the cheap. But if you want that…just sign Castellanos because I know and you know and they know they have the money to do that.

Jimmy Nelson – It would help if he weren’t made of boogers and wish fulfillment. Still, you remember him being utterly dominant in 2017 until his shoulder turned to cheese. Nelson missed all of 2018 and might as well have missed all of last year, starting just three games. He might not be able to even pick up a baseball. Still, he was hesitant to use his fastball last year which had lost some steam, but that could be simply because of the time off. Could be worth a spring training invite just to see if you can regain his downward tilt on pitches, but you wouldn’t be counting on anything here.

 

Baseball

Cubs Release Addison Russell, Proving It Was All About Baseball After All

By Sam Fels 1696 0

Remember “Quiz Show?” Pretty brilliant Robert Redford-directed film. Great cast. Maybe the one time Hank Azaria played an unrepentant asshole. David Paymer and John Turturro are just awesome, and pretty much showcase the entire Jewish spectrum. Somehow it starred Rob Morrow, which gets funnier and funnier the more you think about it.

Anyway, the climactic scene is when Ralph Fiennes’s Charles Van Doren sits before Congress and admits he got the answers before the shows. And senator after senator compliment him for his statement, until the surly, frumpy one from New York (of course he’d be from New York) finally says that his colleagues are full of shit and that he shouldn’t be commended for doing what’s right. Which earns standing applause from the gallery.

That’s kind of how I feel about the Cubs non-tendering Addison Russell yesterday. It really deserves no more applause than getting a vaccination. It’s what you’re supposed to do. Except in one light…is it?

I’ve always been a shade toward the middle on the whole thing when it started last year. Obviously, Addison Russell is a giant piece of shit and I would have been sated had they tossed him in the same dumpster as the giant Wrigley cake from years ago. But, and I could just be drinking the Kool-Aid, I believed Theo when he said they were genuinely interested in his rehabilitation and what was best for Melisa Reidy, who they said had requested that Russell not be released. Multiple times when they announced they were not letting Russell go last year, Theo stressed that Melisa and their child’s well-being and wishes came first.

Sure, deep down I knew it was about not losing an “asset” for nothing, and the hope would be that he would hit for at least a month or two and not spend the season shoving his cleats up his ass every which way so they could trade him and get something in return. But it seemed a pretty good cover story at least.

Of course, Russell sucked all year and proved to be an inattentive dope as well. And the first paragraph of the statement tells you everything: If you haven’t seen it in full:

The first thing they mention is that his contribution on the field would not be anywhere near what he would have to be paid. And normally that would be enough. But Addison Russell isn’t normal.

Last year, they said they were keeping him because they wanted to be on the frontline for his rehabilitation, to make sure everything was being done for Melisa and their child, because they didn’t want to simply wash their hands. They wanted to be involved. They wanted to be on the front-line. They wanted to be at the head of change throughout the league. They wanted you to believe then that his performance didn’t really matter.

And now it’s top of mind.

Of course, they say that his adherence to whatever they set out for him off the field has been up to the standards they set. No one knows really what this has been, and I’m not sure anyone should, although some idea of how intensive it’s been would certainly help. Whatever it is, it certainly can’t have been “completed” in just a year. But now the Cubs aren’t really worried about it, because he’s not their player anymore.

They also didn’t miss the chance to trumpet their own horn, but at least they didn’t lead off with it, so they’re one step ahead of John McDonough. Still, using this at best uncomfortable situation and at worst abhorrent as a platform to boast about your accomplishments and changes, ones we can’t really put a finger on, doesn’t really scan fully either.

Clearly, the Cubs had no choice in the public’s eyes, and no one is going to criticize this move. It’ll be on Addison’s new team to make sure he keeps adhering to his growth and change as a person. Except if there is no new team, what then? What if it’s just on him until April or May? Or longer?

I’m certainly not unhappy he’s gone, though I bet I see even more #27 jerseys in the stands from jackasses who have to prove just how uncaring and menacing they can be simply because. But if it was all about his change and growth, and you were so involved, wouldn’t the Cubs have to keep him so they could as closely monitor it as possible?

That would have been an impossible choice to make. This was certainly easier. But if you take them at their word, always a bad idea when it comes to front offices in any sport, it might not actually have been the right one.

Baseball

Jose Abreu’s New Deal Is Only Curious If You Want To Overanalyze it

By Wes French 1642 0

Jose Abreu and the White Sox did what we all thought they were going to do and agreed to a multi-year contract in lieu of the qualifying offer the Cuban first baseman accepted just over a week ago. With his countryman Yasmani Grandal now in the fold too, Abreu’s signing makes things more complicated than the QO reality of a few days ago.

The three-year, $50M pact was met with a mostly collective “sure. cool. whatever.” Not everyone was willing to congratulate Abreu and look ahead in what’s become a pretty active early off-season for the Sox, though. A vocal sect of media and fans are a bit sour on going to a three-year commitment with the streaky 32 year-old slugger when the team had him for one year, seemingly the preferred position from an analytical standpoint.

But this deal isn’t really about analytics, and if you can’t see the intangibles at play you’re really not even trying. Abreu and Jerry Reinsdorf apparently have a pretty great relationship, because his new paper represents the same kind of loyalty that Jerry shows his front office. Abreu has done a lot to keep the Sox relevant through the failed runs earlier in the decade and the subsequent tear down and rebuild they find themselves in at the end of it. Declining wRC+ be damned, Jerry decided he was going to welcome Jose into the family.

So is this going to be the regret that the un-silent minority thinks it is? Are the leadership and RBI binges, Cuban mentor/ambassador qualities all enough to justify the term/dollars? Is it really even that much in dollars? What does it mean for the future at first base and DH, specifically Andrew Vaughn?

First, the doom-and-gloom outlook. Yes, Abreu hasn’t been the same hitter the last two years that he was in his first four stateside. He dealt with many a nagging injury in 2018, but his 116 wRC+ across 2018-19 is more than 20 points worse than his 2014-17 average of 139. Sure, a continued decline is a possibility for a slugger on the fringes of his prime. But the underlying numbers say his 2019 wasn’t as bad as the surface suggests (highest hard-hit rate in his career, 2nd highest barrel rate) and FanGraphs Steamer projections have him at 32/89/.332 for 2020. Another addition to the lineup via RF could help improve/protect Abreu further as he ages.

The 3/$50M price looks a bit rough, again, on the surface, but I don’t need to delve further into how Abreu is the heart of this team, looked up to by many of the young players set to take the Sox to the next level. Eloy said he’s like a father. Yeah, an $18M cheerleader doesn’t look great in 2022, but the dollars here are all more complicated than they appear as well. Abreu will collect on that $50M, but he won’t see the last payment of it until 2026 with $4M in deferred money. Add to that a $5M signing bonus, and the deal is actually $11M/’20, $16M/’21, $14M/’18 for 3/$41. This could’ve definitely been worse in terms of loyalty deals, and as stated Abreu might justify this with his bat regardless.

So where does that bat fit across these next three seasons? This is where it gets interesting. The Sox don’t lack for players that will push Abreu through this deal, especially with Grandal onboard through ’23. Abreu, Grandal, James McCann, Zack Collins and Yermin Mercedes look like they’re set to create a timeshare between 1B/DH/C in 2020. 2019 third overall pick Andrew Vaughn looks set to push for work with the big club by the end of 2020 but you can argue they’ve got plenty of cover to keep him in minors regardless, barring injury to at least two of those five; and even that would have to coincide with Vaughn forcing the issue in a major way with his bat. Like with Eloy, Robert, and Nick Madrigal the Sox have shown they’re willing to let the kids marinate. Maybe it’s different if they’re pushing for the playoffs, but that’s a bridge to be crossed when it approaches.

So what of the two years beyond next season? Well, while everyone wants Vaughn, or even Gavin Sheets for that matter, to force the issue we all know nothing is certain. So Vaughn can’t just be expected to be mashing in the MLB by the end of 2020. Given the track record, there are many worse options than having Abreu, with the aforementioned contingent, making up the playing time at first base. This gets real muddy if Eloy can’t stay in the field, but with reports that he’s headed to winterball this week to specifically work on his defense (“his goal is to win a Gold Glove in the MLB” says Hector Gomez) he appears seriously committed to improving that aspect of his game and staying in Left.

Basically, you can’t sort out how to deal with Abreu and his time at 1B/DH and who else is pushing for those ABs until they get there. And the Sox absolutely need him in 2020 at the very least, and at first for the most part. Easing him into more DH time helps the team solve its problems there as well, possibly to the point of moving him there full time by the end of this deal. 30 HR and a 116 wRC+ from the DH position in ’21-22 would be the best DH season Sox fans have seen in…half a decade? longer?

Rick Hahn has also been a pretty complimentary of Zack Collins and Yermin Mercedes since the end of the season, going as far as to protect former AAA Rule 5 draftee Mercedes with a 40-man spot after a strong offensive season in Charlotte’s bandbox of a stadium. Collins very well could find himself in another organization if the right(fielder) fit is available via trade. I’d think they look to dangle guys like Collins, Sheets, Blake Rutherford, players they know have tough paths to real roles with this team that could help improve them elsewhere. If you’re banking of using Abreu as a bridge to Vaughn, six years of control on Collins might be better used by another team, but 2020 will also see the addition of a 26th roster spot – conceivably making room for everyone for a year, at least (whether that space is best used for a 1B/DH/C collective is probably a whole other post).

If you want to get crazy maybe Vaughn himself becomes expendable for a Mookie Betts deal, but I’d sooner expect the Bears to win the Super Bowl this season. Vaughn is a part of the plan moving forward, Abreu deal or not. Collins is the guy who just had his path to more at bats immediately affected by the signings last week. Maybe Abreu invited him to the celebration in Miami before he changes teams. It’s the least he could do for making him expendable.

Baseball

Whit Merrifield Isn’t That Great Of An Answer, Certainly Not At That Price, Shut Up

By Sam Fels 1670 0

Cubs fans, and perhaps only Cubs fans, could be caught in the middle of their analytic leanings, fan passions, an unwillingness to hold ownership responsible for being pricks (who just sold their main company for $26 billion I might add) and a desire to win now. But that’s where we’re at. So you can have a section of fans thinking it’s ok to trade Kris Bryant to restock the prospect pipeline even though you’re in the middle of your championship window, and those who would toss overboard up to three prospects for Whit Merrifield.

To quote a great philosopher of our time, Bubbles, “No offense, son, but that’s some weak-ass thinkin’. You equivocatin’ like a motherfucker.’

Here’s the thing. Whit Merrifield isn’t that good. He’s good, but he’s not a top tier player, like some think and the Royals are definitely charging prices equal to that. Perhaps greater Cubdom is still scarred from Jim Hendry dry-humping Brian Roberts for so long that everyone ended with up with a rash and blisters that everyone thinks the Cubs need to have that type of player.

Perhaps most think Merrifield is the player from 2o18, when he was worth nearly 6.0-WAR, stole 45 bases, made a ton of contact, yada yada yada. But he’s only been that player once, and that season looks to be the outlier. His other two seasons have seen him be a solid 2.5-3.0 WAR player, which is certainly worth having but not at the price of three pieces in return, the Royals reported asking price.

Within that, Merrifield gets on base at a decent but hardly eye-shattering rate, though he does hit enough line-drives to make you think it could improve. Additionally, his speed seemed to slip last year as he only piled up 20 stolen bases after his 45 the previous year.

To keep going, Merrifield’s defense took a sharp turn toward the Earth last year, especially in center, and he’s only been a nominally ok second baseman.

So let me ask you, what chance do any of these have of improving now that he’s over 30?

The discussion of a trade always centers around Nico Hoerner, probably because Hoerner is supposed to be at least the diet, younger version of Merrifield at worst. I guess you could see turning in the possibility for the real thing, but at some point the Cubs have to produce their own and Hoerner looked as sure a bet as any in his cameo last year.

The appeal of Merrifield is that he has a very team-friendly deal, with three years left at barely above what David Bote makes. You know who’s even cheaper? Nico Hoerner. And he’s eight years younger, I feel like I have to stress again.

Oh, and he doesn’t pitch.

I suppose you could accuse me of shouting at the rain that we’re not holding the Ricketts family feet to the fire enough, because they’ve made it clear what the Cubs will spend and we should just accept the world we’re in and what the Cubs can do in it. I won’t accept that, while allowing that’s how the Cubs will operate. Still, this doesn’t add up, unless the Cubs know of some flaw that Hoerner has that will keep him from even being anything resembling Merrifield.

I still maintain that the Cubs could roll with Happ in center to start, leaving him alone to play there every day, and Bote filling in at second until Hoerner is ready, while rotating Bryant (if he’s still here and I haven’t defenestrated myself over it) to the outfield occasionally and Heyward into center for other options in the infield. Do that to concentrate resources to the one starter and bullpen arm or two the Cubs need, and I can almost guarantee they would be approaching 95 wins again.

Merrifield would be a fine addition for a certain price, and maybe Hoerner for him straight up is something I could probably convince myself of, given the Cubs clock. But to add two more to that when you might need deadline additions as well? That’s a bridge too far.

Think harder, Homer.

Baseball

Oh My God, It’s Happening: White Sox Sign Yasmani Grandal

By Adam Hess 1921 0

There is no need to bury a lede here: The Chicago White Sox did the damn thing and signed Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73-million deal. I don’t need to tell you this, but it’s obviously a monumental deal for the White Sox in so many ways, and we will get to them all.

Quite frankly, this is a move that I thought made so much sense and was so damn obvious to make, that in reality the Sox would end up balking at it and taking option B or C and ending up with Jason Castro or something of the ilk. I was also nervous that the White Sox were going to think that they ultimately caught lightning in a bottle with James McCann and just ride with him. Instead, Rich Hahn & Co. went out and targeted this guy who is one of the two best catchers in the game, made perfect sense for their roster and pitching staff, and they prioritized signing him and did so early. I almost can’t believe that as I write it.

Let’s talk about all of the ways this is so big, starting with the most important part – on the field. Here are all of the stats that Yasmani Grandal would have been among the top 5 Sox players last season: walks, walk rate, OBP, slugging, OPS, wRC+, fWAR, ISO, wOBA. I could probably keep going, but you get my point. Most of those stats he would have been a top-3 player on the roster and some of them he would’ve led the team. He has been the 12th most valuable player in baseball by fWAR since 2015. Apropos of nothing, he is one slot higher than Manny Machado in those rankings.

Moreover, short of signing Gerrit Cole and/or Anthony Rendon, which we knew was never realistic, signing Grandal is the one move they could’ve made that would help them the most on the field. This guy is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball and his framing ability is one of the best in the game as well, no matter what his 2018 playoff struggles with receiving might trick you into believing. He’s a switch-hitting catcher, high-OBP catcher who brings power and can play 1B or DH as well. He had the 19th highest fWAR among MLB hitters in 2019. He is a stud, and he is a White Sox.

That framing and defense is also going to be near invaluable to this young White Sox pitching staff. Last year James McCann was the worst framing catcher in the American League. So the Sox just went from worst to best in an instant. Moreover, for all of their strengths and lethal stuff, the biggest concern about some of the Sox’ young high-ceiling arms like Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease is lack of control. Now they have one of the premier defensive catchers behind the plate that will help them out if they can keep it close. It also presents as a very attractive shiny toy for any prospective free agent pitchers like Zach Wheeler, who the Sox are also rumored to be interested in.

Riffing off of that last point, the other big aspect of this trade is the splash. The White Sox just signed one of the best players in baseball to a big contract – the biggest in franchise history. They did it on November 21 rather than waiting it out. They were aggressive. They’re showing other teams and other free agents that they are absolutely intent on competing moving forward, and they are to be taken seriously. And the fact that Grandal is one of the best players in baseball and was willing to take their money and buy into their vision, while complimenting their professionalism and process (which might just be typical new signing lip service, but it still could be valuable) lends a lot of legitimacy to this franchise. Other free agents might be looking at the prospect of playing at 3th and Shields a little differently now.

There are a few questions to be asked about what this means moving forward for James McCann and Zach Collins, but I don’t think it’s that complicated. McCann fits best as a backup and platoon type anyway given that he rakes lefties but looks like he is using an actual rake as a bat against righties. Collins was never going to stick behind the plate anyway, and can now move to being a full-time DH considering his best position is hitter, or you can use him as a trade chip for a pitcher (might I suggest one Jon Gray). Use McCann to spell Grandal behind the plate against lefties and let Grandal play first. I think overall, Grandal as your everyday catcher with McCann as backup and Collins as potential fill in is an ideal scenario.

Overall, this is a huge move. I have been saying for months that Grandal would be my number one priority if I was Rick Hahn, and it turned out that Rick agreed with me. AJ talked about this a few weeks ago as well, though he overshot the contract by a lot because he thought the Sox would have to extra-overpay. But in the end, this is a guy that most Sox fans wanted and should have wanted, and in the end the Sox went and got him. They did the damn thing. It’s a good day.

Don’t stop now, boys.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Anthony Rendon

By Andy Jonathan 1552 0

I told myself I wasn’t gonna fall for it again. I wasn’t going to get excited about anything that Rick Hahn has to say about offseason targets or the money they plan on spending or who might be in play for the Sox to sign as a free agent. Yet here we are, listening to him with reporters at a spa in Arizona talk about potential targets for the offseason and the needs of the White Sox in both the near and long term.

“Part of what we were trying to do and what we were trying to make clear was that the eye level has changed around here, meaning that we are a logical destination for premium talent,”

This isn’t really a surprise on the face of it, as Hahn isn’t going to say anything less than that because every agent in the MLB Universe is listening for anything that could give them an edge in negotiations. The fact that Hahn even mentions “premium talent” implies that they’ll be in on everybody this winter, as pretty much everybody in the top tier the Sox theoretically SHOULD be in on.

Which brings us to today’s target. Someone that I wasn’t going to bother with, but now much like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football, I’m trying to convince myself that THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT. I know deep in my heart it’s gonna get yanked away again, but hope springs eternal. So let’s charge headlong at that football and talk about Anthony Rendon.

Why Him?: Did you see him in the postseason this year? (judging by the ratings up until Game 7 the answer is probably no) The man was a machine, posting a 1.10 OPS during the entire run, with 3 HR and 10 extra base hits to go along with his 15 RBI. Postseason stats not good enough for you? Well he’s been one of the best hitters in the majors the past 3 seasons. Since 2016 he’s been an unstoppable hitting force, 4th best in the entire league.

In that time he’s slashed .294/.384/.528 with 103 dingers and 403 RBIs. The only player higher than him in RBI totals is Nolan Arenado and his home park has the same gravity as the International Space Station. Oh, Rendon has also been worth 24.2 WAR in that time span. The closest White Sox player in that category is newly resigned Jose Abreu with 9.4 WAR. On top of that Rendon is a plus defender at the hot corner, totaling +18 DRS in his career with the Nationals. UZR likes his defense even more, having him at a +32.1 for his entire career.

He also smokes right handed pitching, batting .289 against them in his career, and over .300 in the past few years including a .320 mark this past season with 24 home runs. There’s nothing this guy can’t do at the plate. He’s an instant upgrade for the White Sox batting order, and would most likely hit 3rd after Yoan Moncada and before Jose Abreu or Eloy. If you can’t get excited about that batting order, then you’re most likely suffering from a critical case of being dead.

Why Not Him?: Theoretically there should be nothing in this category. The guy is amazing and instantly makes the team better. In reality? He’s represented by Scott Boras, so there’s the history between him and Jerry Reinsdorf right off the bat. He’s also by far and away the best hitter on the market, so the Sox will have to contend with multiple suitors for his services and we’ve seen how that played out in the past.

He’ll also be entering into his age 30 season, and if you’re super worried about Jerry getting the most value for his investment (I’m not) regression would be a concern. Also he plays 3rd base, so defensively you either move Yoan back to 2B or you ask Rendon if he’s willing to move to 1B from time to time or DH. Or perhaps you try Moncada in RF which kills two birds with one stone, other than the fact that he’s never played in the OF so you’re resigning yourself to Luis Robert basically playing the entire field by himself.

These are all nitpicks, however. None of this should stop Hahn from making Boras an offer that Rendon can’t refuse as he instantly makes the Sox an offensive threat and puts the entire central division on notice that they’re coming for them.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Now we come to the rub. Boras has talked openly about trying to get Rendon a deal in the range of what Nolan Arenado got from the Rockies when he signed his extension last season (7 years and $234 million). The comps between the two are similar, with Arenado being a year and a half younger than Rendon.

Rough guess here, but I would think Boras would have a goal set of 7 years and $250 million giving his contract an AAV of around $35 million. Would the Sox be willing to go $8 million more a year then what they offered up to Manny Machado in their failed pursuit last offseason? I think we all know the answer is no, when in reality it shouldn’t matter in the slightest. The team payroll sits at a meager $55 million right now after Abreu accepted his qualifying offer yesterday leaving plenty of space for what Hahn needs to add and extend on the Sox roster.

There should be no reason Rick Hahn and Jerry can’t take a realistic run at Rendon this offseason, and signing him would be a cause for great celebration among the White Sox faithful. It would also show the fanbase that they aren’t fucking around this time and the story of Jerry saying “finishing second pays just as much” is a total myth. Not to mention it certainly would solve a lot of the team’s offensive woes. It makes a lot of sense for the Sox, and would make a whole lot of dollars for Jerry to field the first winning roster in over 7 years. It’s gonna be different this time, right?

Hope springs eternal.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Jon Gray

By Sam Fels 1307 0

We’ve been through a few pitchers the Cubs could just sign, some good some bad. We started this whole thing off with a trade target, and that was Thor, which will never happen. So let’s cycle back to another trade target, something of a baby Thor. And that’s Jon Gray.

Gray is probably on the trade market because he only has two more years of control, and the Rockies are loathe to spend money they don’t have to, even more than the Cubs. They’re not going to sign him when he’s a free agent, and there are some things about his performance that would give any team pause, so they can probably sell him at his highest now before he breaks again. Would he make sense for the Cubs? Yeah, he just might.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Gray was sneaky good last year, when you adjust for the fact that he basically pitches his home games on the moon. He finished the year with a 76 ERA- (100 is average, and counts down), which if he had enough innings would have been one of the best marks in the league. It was the second out of the last three that he was around 75, which he also did in 2017.

The strange this is this past season, Gray doesn’t have much of a home/road split. Hitters had a .261 average against him at home, and a .258 on the road. On-base and slugging are just about the same as well. His ERA at home was 3.46, and 4.22 on the road. He actually had a worse home-run rate on the road, which doesn’t make a ton of sense but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. And for his career, there really isn’t much difference between home and road for Gray. He’s basically the same pitcher.

Which is a pretty good one. Gray has struck out just a tick above a hitter per inning in all four of his full seasons in the Majors. If you go by percentage, he’s struck out a tick above league average as well. In three seasons, he’s maintained a 3-to-1 K/BB rate. This year, Gray bumped up the amount of grounders he gets to over 50%, which would play even better away from Coors as the altitude tends to turn their infield into a runway. Still, the Rockies had a great infield defense, which Gray would find here.

Ein minute bitte, vous einen kleined problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): There are flags with Gray, of course. One is health. Gray has never taken on a full slate of starts in a season, managing over 30 starts just once (and 29 on another occasion). He’s achy-breaky. He just turned 28, so he’s probably just always going to be the kind who misses 5-10 starts a year. Again, we’ve gone over this before, that the Cubs should be buffeted for that kind of thing with Chatwood and Alzolay around, but it’s not something you’d willingly choose if you didn’t have to.

Second, Gray only throws two pitches really. As we’ve seen with Chris Archer, the shelf-life for starters with only a fastball and a slider isn’t very long, and Gray could be coming to the end of his if he doesn’t add something. He does have a decent curveball, and if a team could draw that out of him more then you might really have something. It would just be a departure from his approach in his whole career. On the plus side, Gray’s fastball gained some velocity this past season, so it’s probably still some time before his fastball is a problem.

Third, Gray has given up a ton of hard contact, and especially this past season. Statcast has him at 43% hard-contact against, and FanGraphs at 39%. The StatCast mark is in the bottom 4% in the league, The average 89.8 MPH exit velocity isn’t pleasant to look at either, and that’s not altitude influenced. And he’s been trending that way for the past two seasons.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Gray would be moved for prospects, as the Rockies system blows, they don’t really want to add any payroll if they can help it. Gray has two years of arbitration left, and he’s projected to get $5.6M this year so you’d have to guess his last year of arbitration would be somewhere around $7M-$8M, unless he goes nuclear next year. His affordability will make him a harder trade, but them’s the breaks. The Cubs aren’t laced with prospects, and other teams might be in on Gray given his low salary and high ceiling and relatively established floor. It would probably take a couple B-Level ones to get this done. Very well might be worth it.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Brock Holt

By Sam Fels 1233 0

Full disclosure, a signing of Brock Holt would allow me to open up the box marked “Mike Olt/Steve Holdt Jokes” that I never really got to use much when Olt prove to be an oaf. So I’m biased. Still, while it would hardly be the sexiest signing the Cubs could make, it would have some purpose. The Cubs might need help filling in second base while Nico Hoerner cooks some more in Triple-A. They could use a little more flexibility, depending on what happens with Ian Happ this winter, or Albert Almora, or really the whole goddamn thing. And they can probably use some relatively affordable help. Holt checks all the boxes.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well one, Holt plays everywhere. He played second mostly for the Red Sox, but in the past has played short, third, some first, and even some spots in the outfield. He hasn’t flexed around the diamond of late, but it’s probably still in the holster if you need it.

Second, Holt murdered right-handed pitching this past season. If you focus only on his work against them, he slashed .318/.394/.438, good for a 119 wRC+. It’s best if you don’t look at his work against left-handed pitching, but the Cubs really should be covered for that with David Bote lying around and possibly Happ switch-hitting as well. He also had a near 40% hard-contact rate against them.

And that might be a one-season trend. In 2018 Holt hit both sides well, and his career numbers don’t suggest a huge split. Holt may have been a touch unlucky last year against southpaws, as with a 27% line-drive rate against them he only managed a .277 BABIP. He was probably due a couple more hits. That’s one of the better line-drive rates against lefties in the game, if he’d had enough ABs to qualify which he obviously didn’t as a utility player.

Thirdly, the Cubs seem intent on adding contact hitters to the lineup, and Holt is that when he plays. Holt has an 86.5% contact-rate, which on the Cubs would be just about astronomical. Of all their regulars, only Rizzo was above 80%. Holt walks a decent amount, doesn’t strike out much, and gets the ball in play. The Cubs don’t have a ton of that, though Hoerner is supposed to make up some of that difference.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): Well, it’s debatable how much the Cubs need a player like this, depending on the other maneuvers the team makes (Hilda…I have invented a maneuver….). There’s a chance Hoerner could start the year as the top second baseman, and he could fill in at short when Javy needs a day. As we said, Bote’s around, so Holt wouldn’t be much more than a left-handed compliment to him. And if Happ is still here, and not permanently installed in left after a Kyle Schwarber trade (don’t you fucking dare, Theo), he can bounce into second as well.

Holt doesn’t provide a lot of pop, just kind of serviceable offense that blends nicely with his flexibility. Or what used to be his flexibility. That’s the other thing, is that it’s been a couple years since he was moved around everywhere, so there’s a chance he might not be able to do it anymore. Still rather have him taking these ABs than Descalso, though.

Holt will also turn 32 during the season, so that also plays a role in what he can or can’t do.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Another part of the appeal here is he can’t possibly cost much. Holt made $3.75M in arbitration last year, and this is his first crack at free agency. I can’t fathom he’d cost more than $4M or $5M for one year, if that. Oh here’s a kicker, it was Theo who drafted him. So you know there’s a connection there. For a utility bat, you could do way worse.