Game #14 Preview Suite
Some combination of last year’s horrible season and all of the insane optimism I have about the Bears has resulted in an all-time low level of expectations about the Blackhawks this year, and with that it’s been difficult for me to get worked up about bad losses. So it should tell you something when I say that this loss was really aggravating. Let’s just get this over with:
– At a certain point Brandon Saad is going to have a breakthrough on offense this year. I feel this is a certainty. His performances have been too dominant in almost all other aspects besides actually finding the back of the net, and even tonight he managed to that, albeit in a really weird way. He almost had a second but he Maradonna’d it into the net with the kind of backheel touch I’d like to see in Man City’s midfield (yes I am a Citizen. No I don’t know why Sam still lets me write here). Overall he was probably the Hawks best player tonight, and his 70% shot share at 5v5 bears that out (though it was actually third on the team to Wide Dick and Kunitz, his linemates). It’s either gonna come together for him or continue to be the most frustrating season imaginable. Hopefully the former.
– I don’t know what kind of galaxy brain shit led Joel Quennville to a defensive pairing of the Brandons Davidson and Manning, but the results of that pair being on the ice is what Q and his team deserve for not just putting that pair together, but sticking with it all night. Manning continues to be unarguably the worst player on the ice, and his presence on this team is an affront to humanity and the sport of hockey. He almost murdered one of the Canucks players tonight (it’s too late for me to go back and try to figure out who it was) and in my opinion the only just result is that he gets banned from the NHL forever. It’s only right.
– Meanwhile, Manning was a land of contrasts tonight. There was a 30 second stretch before the Canucks second goal where he did an excellent job closing Elias Petterson out in the defensive zone, basically completely shutting the rookie down on the rush. Then 30 seconds later he seemed like he had no clue what to do with Jake fucking Virtanen as he rushed, and Manning ended up leaving Virtanen way too much room to shoot, and he burned Crow high. And then probably about two minutes later he boxed out Louis Eriksson extremely well to shut down a rush. So what the fuck? Pick a lane my dude.
– This was a really bad loss, mostly because the Hawks played so much better in the first two periods than the Canucks. But when you get brained so badly you only manage 28% of the shots in the third period, you deserve to lose. Let’s agree to never speak of this again.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 6-3-3 Canucks 7-6-0
PUCK DROP: 9pm
TV: WGN
THEY DON’T THROW GARBAGE ANYMORE: Nucks Misconduct
It still doesn’t feel right. This trip is supposed to take place at the end of November. That’s when the Hawks go to Western Canada. That’s how it always was. It was understood. There was a rhythm to this.
But thanks to Rocky Wirtz making the (correct) decision to do away with the circus (though maybe not for the right reasons but whatever), the “Circus Trip” is no more and the Hawks are headed to the land of darkened arenas and misplaced Olympic bids now instead of on either side of Thanksgiving. They’ll kick it off tonight in Vancouver, where the memories of past epic battles and triumphs are starting to fade and yellow. That wouldn’t be a bad way to describe the opponent, either.
The Canucks will tell you they’re in a rebuild, and that’s partially true. The Children Of The Corn have toddled off to wherever strange twins go (Argentina, boss?), and the Canucks are moving into a new era. And they have found some young players where you can see the foundation of something at least useful could be built upon. The new toy is Elias Pettersson (WHO WANTS TO WALK WITH ELIAS?!), 2017’s first-round pick. He joins last year’s phenom Brock Boeser. So does Adam Gaudette, who made Dylan Sikura look like something we should care about last year at Northeastern. Bo Horvat continues to have an upward trajectory that no one really saw coming. Troy Stecher on defense is at least a piece if not a big one. Quinn Hughes likely is that big piece on defense when he joins next year. They’re not bereft of hope.
But those kids are surrounded by some of the dumbest-ass signings and trades which make you wonder what it is exactly they’re trying to do here. Here’s a tidy list: Loui Eriksson, Brandon Sutter, Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Sam Gagner, Erik Gudbranson (twice!), Michael Del Zotto. And none of these guys were just one-year signings that they hope turn into gold at the deadline. These were part of a plan, or something they thought was a plan, or maybe just part of a ton of shit being thrown at a wall (which is how Canucks fans celebrate and court the opposite sex, as we know).
Not that if the Canucks used all that money wisely they would be a contender. But they’d be better positioned when they are one, that’s for sure.
Anyway, for tonight the Canucks also come in pretty beat up. Baertschi, Beagle, and Sutter are all out, depriving them of a whole line. Christopher Tanev and Alex Edler and his amazing rising elbows are both out as well, taking their top pairing away. Which means Ben Hutton and Gudbranson have to fill in there. Might have something to do with them losing three of their last five, and one of those wins was a shootout.
For the Hawks, there don’t appear to be too many changes other than Marcus Kruger might pay the price for his penalty-happy ways lately. This seems a touch short-sighted, as Kruger is just about the only one not giving up better chances than he’s on the ice for, especially given the dungeon zone-starts he gets. But it’s one game, so we’re not going to sweat it too much. Perhaps Jan Rutta slots back in after being banished to a timeout on Sunday after his magic show for a confused cat on Saturday, replacing Brandon Davidson. EAT ARBY’S.
The Canucks only threat is Pettersson and Boeser. And they are heavily sheltered, starting 80% of their shifts in the offensive zone. Q might be loathe to do it, but it would make sense to use Toews in his own end more than most of this season to keep the two kids quiet. It’s certainly beyond SuckBag Johnson or David Kampf. If you can keep the Vancouver’s top line off the scoresheet, it’s hard to see where else they’d get it unless you really fuck up and Corey Crawford has a full-body dry heave in net.
It was a disappointing weekend for the Hawks, and they’ll need to make up for it on this trip. While we’ve been slightly encouraged by the Hawks’ start, it still leaves them behind four teams in the Central and you’d have to think this is the pace that’s going to be necessary all season to be relevant. The Oilers and Flames don’t suck out loud but can be had. The Canucks very much so. Get it while you can.
Game #13 Preview Suite
You get the feeling the Canucks never really planned for the post-Sedin era. Maybe Bo Horvat was envisioned as something that could, possibly, if everything went right and a few cracks in the Earth swallowed some other centers could be that guy. But that didn’t seem like much of a plan. Maybe they thought the Sedins would play forever, and given how creepy they were that wasn’t a totally ridiculous thought. What else were they going to do? They can’t play with their toy cars that much.
Good thing the Canucks got lucky and Elias Pettersson fell to them at #5 in the 2017 draft.
Not that any of the four teams ahead of the Canucks that year are complaining about Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick, Miro Heiskanen, or Cale Makar. But Pettersson was either considered a fall or a reach by scouts, they couldn’t agree. Anyway, Pettersson looks like he might end up being the best player in that draft. Y’know, if we’re judging after seven games. Then again, in those seven games he’s already almost halfway to Patrick’s goal-total from last year.
While Pettersson is a center, he has a lot of Patrick Kane in his game. You won’t find a pair of better hands anywhere on the Canucks, and some of his stick-handling looks like it came from that online game of NHL ’18 you lost by six goals to some kid in Germany who doesn’t even go to school anymore. And don’t worry, thanks to E-League or whatever he’ll be making more money than you in the next few months. Life was never promised to be fair.
Like most Swedes (has anyone bothered to study how they develop players and emulate it?), Petterss0n’s game isn’t just on one side of the ice. He knows where to be and is determined on the defensive side of the puck and ice. The one problem he faces at this level is that he’s in desperate need of a sandwich. Yes, he’s 6-2 but he’s claiming 176 pounds and that’s if he’s carrying someone’s dog at the time. So while he may be willing and in the right spot, some nights he’s just going to get knocked around and over. But that’s correctable, and you can be sure the Canucks will have him one of Vanvouver’s dispensaries soon to give him a non-stop case of the munchies.
Pettersson could have gone top three in that draft if he didn’t have a weak ’17 World Juniors. The Canucks must have been beaming when he corrected that in ’18 and led Sweden to the silver medal, including PWNing the host US in the semifinals. Needless to say their fans were pretty pumped about it.
Pettersson continues a really strange record for this particular Canucks regime. They’ve drafted well, and you can see the makings of another good Vancouver team through the fog here. Quinton Hughes next year will join Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Adam Gaudette, Thatcher Demko, and Troy Stecher as a pretty good nucleus. Not great, but good. But that has been so shrouded in just god-awful contracts to free agents and bewildering trades (or not trades) that you wonder when they can extricate themselves. Antoine Roussel is around for three more seasons. Loui Eriksson for four, and no one’s coming for that. At least in the next two years they’ll clear out Erik Gudbranson and Michael Del Zotto, and Sam Gagner is in the AHL at the moment. Jay Beagle? Brandon Sutter? It doesn’t give you a lot of confidence that they can surround the young talent they have discovered with the necessary pieces.
But at least they don’t have to worry about the #1 center slot. And that can be the hardest one to fill.
Game #13 Preview Suite
Stefan Heck is @HockeyDipshit. We don’t need to tell you much else.
The Canucks have Brock Boeser and Elias Pattersson and Adam Gaudette, so they do know how to find young players. And yet Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson, Brandon Sutter, Jay Beagle, and a host of other bewildering contracts and decisions are here as well. Do they have a direction or is this a mass shit-flinging at a wall?
I’ll admit it – this regime is much better at drafting than the Gillis regime. Unfortunately, they’re still much worse at trading, free agency, and a host of other things. I think the players Jim Benning has drafted will eventually form the core of a solid team, but I don’t think he’ll be GM whenever that eventually happens. Also, I was right about Elias Pettersson. Just wanted to mention that.
Let’s stick with Gaudette. His running buddy at Northeastern, Dylan Sikura, was sent down by the Hawks and we’ve always had a raised eyebrow when it comes to him. We chalked his production up to getting to play with Gaudette at the college level. What are the first impressions over there?
Gaudette is way faster than I imagined he’d be. He works his ass off, and if he had a bit more puck luck, he’d definitely have his first goal by now. The points will start to come in the second half of the season, I’d imagine. He’ll either stay on the team because of his play or because “Canucks” and “injuries” are like peanut butter and chocolate. Hey, I’ll give Gaudette this: he’s about six billion times more watchable than Jayson Megna.
Is this finally the Bo Horvat awakening?
Horvat continues to surprise even the most loyal of Canucks fans. I honestly thought he might peak at, like, a Daymond-Langkow-in-Calgary 77 point season, but now I don’t know. I think a large part of his goal explosion this year is that his toe-drag bull-rush to the net move seems to be working way more often. He’s definitely been a lot of fun so far, and seems to be that classic player that gets better the more you underestimate him.
Is Thatcher Demko taking over in net when he’s healthy?
Demko’s concussion issues are worrisome, and Markstrom/Nilsson have been solid so far – although given everything we know about those two, that could change in a minute. I am genuinely concerned that his concussion will keep him out for a really long time, but I’d say even when he’s 100% healthy this year, he’ll only see playing time on the Canucks if one of the two Swedes gets hurt or traded.
Game #13 Preview Suite
Antoine Roussel may have escaped to the Pacific Division and out of the Hawks division, but that doesn’t mean he’s changed his ways. He’s second on the Canucks in penalty minutes behind monolith Erik Gudbranson, and it appears he’s not going to let the Canucks down if they paid good money for an ass-rash.
Of course, one might wonder why you’d commit $3M a season to a third-line pest at best (see what we did there?). Roussel has never bettered 14 goals in a season, though he’s had decent underlying numbers in his career. That said, these types of players don’t tend to age well as they can’t keep up once they get around 30, and that only keeps players from believing in their bullshit even more.
Still, Roussel carries on a tradition of Canucks shitheads, and he would have fit perfectly on this team six years ago. It’s the only thing they seem to do well, and look where it’s got them! So many banners…that celebrate the fans….
Roussel can be as annoying as they come, and perhaps the most annoying thing about him is how hard he tries to be annoying. Players like Brad Marchand and Tom Wilson, as detrimental as they are to the league, it comes naturally to them. You don’t think they ever go out of their way for their shenanigans. But Roussel, the whole thing smacks of effort, man. He’s like a small child begging for attention and doesn’t care how he gets it. Pretty soon he’ll be stomping his feet and holding his breath.
At least it keeps the Canucks from fading into obscurity. There wasn’t much about them before, especially with the Sedins now at a farm upstate. They lost any sort of personality or notability, other than a couple kids who show promise. Anyone can do that. But the Canucks brand of ass-hattery, that’s what made them special.
From their failing hands they toss the torch to you, Antoine. Be yours to hold it high.
Game #13 Preview Suite
First Screen Viewing
Bruins vs. Hurricanes – 6pm
The Hurricanes have been one of the stories of the young season so far, though the schedule has been a little light for them so far. That didn’t stop them from utterly shredding the Sharks when they visited, so that’s what the Bruins could be in for. The Bs have been what they always are: one line tearing everyone apart and then a bunch of the rest. Tuke Nuke’Em has gotten off to an uneven start though Jaro Halak has been excellent. See if the Canes can do it to another upper-echelon team.
Second Screen Viewing
Knights vs. Predators – 7pm
Preds fans will probably claim this should have been the West final last year. They would be wrong, but they’ll claim that. The Knights’ record isn’t all that startling but all the underlying numbers suggest that they’re about to change in that sharpish. I don’t fully buy the Predators yet, but they have 16 of 22 points and their goaltending is what it’s been. They’re kind of the West’s Bruins in that they have one line and then goalies. Their defense is a little better though, isn’t it? This is your NBCSN offering.
Other Games
Flames vs. Sabres – 6pm
Islanders vs. Penguins – 6pm
Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
Stars vs. Canadiens – 6:30
Devils vs. Lightning – 6:30
Wild vs. Oilers – 8pm
Senators vs. Coyotes – 9pm
Flyers vs. Ducks – 9pm
Rangers vs. Sharks – 9:30
We’re still in the “small sample size” portion of the season, so everything that follows comes with whatever sized-asterisk you feel you’re up to today. Anyway, let’s get nerdy:
5, 2
I’m sure these are the numbers that the coaches would point to as a way to illustrate why Artem Anisimov has to play center for Patrick Kane instead of Nick Schmaltz. The first is the number of goals for the Hawks with Kane and Anisimov together. The second is the number with Kane and Schmaltz, and the latter pairing have almost double the time of the former. In most hockey coaches’ worlds, the results are the results and speak for all.
Except this would ignore every other indicator that shows Anisimov is holding Kane back.
What I’m sure the coaches are also paying attention to is that Schmaltz has been a defensive liability at center, and that’s pretty much always been the case, no matter what takeaway stats they make up. And yes, Kane and Anisimov do give up slightly less together than Schmaltz and Kane did. Attempts per 60 against goes from 62.7 to 57.6, and scoring chances go from 37.0 to 27.2. The first one isn’t that significant and is still bad. Obviously the second number is one that you would notice. The high-danger chances drop as well.
Still, the big number in this discussion is that when Schmaltz and Kane have been on the ice together, the team’s shooting-percentage is 4.2%. Whereas with Anisimov it’s 17.8%. And the downtick in chances and attempts against can be partly explained by the fact that Anisimov and Kane take 85% of their draws in the offensive zone, while Schmaltz and Kane were taking a still aggressively high 74%.
It feels like no matter what you’re doing here, you’re asking this line to outscore its problems, which it pretty much always will with Kane on the ice. And he and Schmaltz just create more chances together. I’ll buy that keeping Schmaltz on the third line spreads out some scoring, especially if Saad can continue to look as good as he has lately. Still, Arty is an obelisk and there could be so much more.
11.64
Speaking of Kane, no matter who he has been on the ice with, he is letting fly with the puck far more than he ever has. That’s his shots per 60 minutes at even-strength, which would dwarf his career-high by over two shots per 60 were it to continue. His 16.2% shooting-percentage certainly dovetails nicely with that, though unlikely to continue. Overall, Kane is averaging just at tick below five shots per game, which is basically Ovechkin territory. If Kane were just to hit his career SH% mark with this level of shot-taking, he’d end up with 48 goals, two more than his MVP season.
All of his individual peripherals are way up this year too, such as attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger chances. Not surprisingly, given what we’ve seen, all of the defensive metrics when he’s on the ice are higher as well. Basically, everything is happening when he’s on the ice. Kane has spent a decent portion of time with defensively helpless Schmaltz or Fortin, and they immovable Anisimov. Behind him it’s mostly been Brent Seabrook and Erik Gustafsson, and we know their limitations.
I wouldn’t chalk this up to anything more than the entire team’s nebulous relationship with defense right now, combined with the league’s openness as a whole so far this year, more than Kane giving even less of a shit on one end of the ice than normal. And frankly, I’ll take more high-event hockey with him on the ice, because he’s almost certainly going to outdo whatever the opposition can come up with when it comes to the bottom line, which is goals.
.920, .927
That’s the even-strength save-percentages of Cam Ward and Corey Crawford. Really not all that different, and the Hawks have gotten more out of Ward than we all feared to this point. Interestingly, the difference between their SV% and their expected SV%s, is 0.91 and 0.87, with Ward’s being the higher. So the Hawks are getting plus-goaltending. More encouragingly is neither number is higher than half of what Crawford’s difference was last year, and that was merely to keep the Hawks barely hanging onto a playoff place for half of a season. As you would expect, John Gibson, Pekka Rinne, and Antti Raanta are the leaders in this category, and they’re up over 2% difference. So it’s at least not as bad as last year. Yet.
