

Game #15 Preview Suite
I don’t know that we’ll make it strict blog policy, but I think it’s important that when analyzing and discussing the Hawks we always keep in mind their “real” record. That’s hard to decipher in the NHL at times, as they do everything they can to ensure the standings are what are interpreted as what a team really is. So the OT results can cloud things a bit, or sometimes more so. Right now, the Hawks are a 3-5-6 team. That’s essentially what they’ve earned. They have six ties, and three regulation wins: in Columbus where they were severely outplayed for most of it, and over the Ducks and Rangers who both suck eggs. If viewed through that prism, then recent results don’t really surprise.
Coming into this season, the biggest problem the Hawks had was that they were a bad defensive team last year. And that’s being kind. You might be tempted to describe them as “abominable” defensively. While the goaltending was awful without Corey Crawford, no one was pretending that he wasn’t Atlas-ing a very creaky if not downright faulty ship. The team didn’t seem to lie to you about it either, as they knew they were terrible in their own end and the neutral zone. Clearly changes had to be made not just personnel-wise, but structurally as well.
We’ll get to those changes in a minute, but the story so far is that they haven’t worked. The amount of attempts the Hawks give up at even-strength has gone from 58.1 per 60 to 58.0. Not exactly a cataclysmic improvement. Their shots against per 60 at evens has gone from 32.1 to 31.8. Again, an improvement but not enough and still one of the worst marks around. And their expected goals against per 60 has actually gotten worse, and by a noticeable margin, from 2.54 per 60 last year to 2.74 this year (about an 8% increase). So even if they’re giving up a shade less attempts and shots, they’re giving up even better chances than they did last year, and last year was a veritable waterfall of chances against (which you shouldn’t go chasing, as you well know by now).
What’s been clear in the season’s first 14 games is that Joel Quenneville appears to be trying to install a more aggressive tweak to the defensive system. It’s not an overhaul, and the Hawks were always aggressive–trying to stop rushes ahead of their line, going into the corners and half-boards as the slightest sign of an opening, etc.–as well as going with a more zonal system. But now the Hawks, at times, send two guys after the puck, are chasing behind their own net far more than I can remember, and are trying to step up even higher into the neutral zone.
The question one might ask is if this is a prudent change with a defense that overall has gotten even slower. Because the Hawks just don’t get there, which is leaving even bigger gaps than they had last year. Let’s look at some goals from recent games. Now, the following may seem like we’re trying to single out Brandon Manning, and we’re not….well, ok, that’s not the sole intention. But he is a good example of a player ill-suited to what the Hawks are trying to accomplish, or at least what I think they’re trying to accomplish. And I will admit that using a third-pairing on a mediocre team at best is cherry-picking, But there are things to learn.
Take the fourth Oilers goal last night:
Manning makes a bad pass, which is not systematic. There’s a turnover at the blue line. Davidson, who’s already cheating to the middle before, is by far the closer to the play and cuts across. Because Manning was already backing up when passing and is somewhere near his left circle, the read should be his partner cutting across and Manning being something of a free-safety. Instead, much like Gallahad, Manning comes charging to where Davidson and a Hawks forward already are, leaving an entire side of the ice open. And because it’s Brandons EAT ARBY’S, they both get beat and it’s a 2-on-0.
Let’s move back to Wednesday:
Again, it’s Manning and Davidson. Manning wants to step up on Granlund before his own blue line, but his gap to start before the pass even heads to Granlund is too big. And because he’s slow and a clod, he gets turned trying to make it up too late, leaving Davidson with about two and a half guys to cover.
But it’s not just them. Take St. Louis’s second goal on Saturday:
Jokiharju goes chasing the puck and Ryan O’Reilly around and up to the boards, even though ROR is basically in the corner and can be easily “contained.” Keith is now on the right side of the net. If that’s where he’s supposed to be, then Alex DeBrincat has to be crashing down low to deal with Perron. Toews is late to cover for Jokiharju and Keith as they try and scramble, but he has about four different places to be. At the beginning, Toews was the one who seemed to think ROR was at least accounted for along the boards and isn’t expecting Jokiharju to come flying out there.
Now, this is easily the result of a teenager learning at the highest level, and mistakes you can live with. Except they’re happening multiple times a night to everyone. The amount of times the Hawks leave an entire side of the ice open per game is simply confounding. No one seems to have any idea what the other guy is going to do, and they hence end up doing everything and nothing at the same time. Communication seems to be somewhere around the level of whatever that shrieking was on the NBCSN broadcast last night
Before we start breaking glass to get our axes, these are changes that would take some time to bed in, but the clock is ticking. You’d have to think that if the Hawks still look this iffy and unsure at the end of this month, then real problems are going to need real solutions. But by that point, it may be too late.
It should also be noted that the Hawks most consistent defender from last year, Connor Murphy, is yet to play. But when you’re really depending on the return of a 6′ 5″ d-man with back problems now, who is also Connor Murphy–a fine player but nowhere near a great one– that makes a statement of its own.
Which makes the Hawks’ personnel decisions on their blue line the past couple years all the more strange. The perfect d-man for this souped-up system in their own zone of course is Michal Kempny. But I don’t want to litigate that whole thing again. The blue line is just another area where the disagreements between coach and GM and how they see how a roster should be built are clear. Stan Bowman liked Kempny, and brought him back for a second year even though he spent the first being spit on by Quenneville. But when that didn’t work, Stan has provided Q with Jan Rutta and Manning, which more and more seem like decisions with a “Fine, here are the fucking monoliths you prefer” tinge of attitude to them. And Q’s now running a defensive system based on what he thinks Stan wanted with the players he was stuck with.
That’s all just a theory, and not even all that likely. On the ground, what we know is that Stan tried to make the blue line more mobile last year with bringing back Kempny and swapping out Hjalmarsson for Murphy. And this year he’s made it less so by bringing back Rutta and bringing in Manning. They were forced into playing Jokiharju, who isn’t really all that quick either, just smart though learning the hard way.
At the end of the day, through their performance, decisions, changes, and whatever else, none of it really makes sense.
The Rockford IceHogs face their first three-game weekend against some familiar opponents. After opening the season series against the Milwaukee Admirals, the Hogs have a home-and-home with the Iowa Wild. A quick look at the Central Division standings tells us that Rockford is in for a tough start to the month of November.
The Admirals sit atop the division with an 8-1-2 mark. Iowa is third in the Central with a 5-2 record and are scoring nearly five goals a game. The IceHogs (4-3-1-1, .556 points percentage) are currently in a tie for fourth place with Texas and Manitoba. Rockford will have its hands full this weekend.
The IceHogs are a bit banged up and will have to rely on some players a little further down on the depth chart. Rockford is coming off of two losses to Cleveland and Manitoba despite solid play in their own net. The piglets could muster a single goal in each of the last two contests. They will have to improve upon that to keep up in this early-season division test.
On Monday, Kevin Lankinen was sent to the Indy Fuel of the ECHL. Coming up in an unrelated move was forward Brett Welychka, who had four points (2 G, 2 A) in five games for the Fuel this season. Also coming up to Rockford on Wednesday was forward Radovan Bondra. Bondra missed a large chunk of last season to injury after signing an AHL deal with Rockford.
Welychka and Bondra are likely up due to injury issues with Jordan Schroeder and Matthew Highmore. Schroeder may not be ready to return from an injury that kept him out last weekend, while Highmore left Sunday’s game with Manitoba with an apparent shoulder injury.
Defenseman Carl Dahlstrom left Sunday’s game with a groin injury. His availability would seem to also be in doubt, though there should be plenty of healthy bodies for coach Jeremy Colliton to use on the blueline.
Rockford travels to UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena for a 7:00 p.m. puck drop. The Ads won eight of the ten meetings between the two teams last season and are currently on a five-game points streak.
Veteran forward Rocco Grimaldi is up with the Predators, so Milwaukee loses his point-producing abilities. However, the Admirals still have several weapons on offense.
Anthony Richard is tied for the team lead with six goals after potting 19 a season ago. Emil Pettersson (4 G, 5 A) is back for his second season after putting up 46 points in his rookie year.
Defenseman Matt Donovan (6 G, 6 A)is back in the AHL after two seasons in Europe. His six goals is tied for first among league defensemen. Frederic Allard (1 G, 9 A) has also been strong for Milwaukee on the back end.
Longtime Grand Rapids goalie Tom McCollum (2.44 goals against, .913 save percentage) has been the primary starter and will likely face the IceHogs Friday. He is backed up by six-year veteran Troy Grosenick (2.60, .918)
Rockford plays host to the Wild at 6:00 p.m. Saturday before hopping on the bus and taking on Iowa at Wells Fargo Arena Sunday at 5:00 p.m.
The Wild power play is the class of the AHL so far; Iowa has ten goals in 26 opportunities (38.5 percent). At 4.71 goals per contest, Iowa is second only to Springfield in scoring in the league. The Wild come off a sweep of Colorado last weekend, putting up a dozen goals in the two games.
Center Cal O’Reilly has five seasons of 60-plus points in his 13 AHL seasons, including 64 points (15 G, 49 A) with the Wild in 2017-18. With seven points in Iowa’s seven games (2 G, 5 A), the 32-year-old O’Reilly shares the team points lead with Luke Kunin (3 G, 4 A) and rookie Mason Shaw (1 G, 6 A).
Other point-producers are forwards Justin Kloos (3 G, 3 A) and Kyle Rau (3 G, 3 A), who put up 23 goals with the Wild last season. Landon Ferraro is a familiar name, having skated with Grand Rapids and Chicago as well as Iowa in his seven-year pro career.
Former Hogs forward Mike Liambas will not be afraid to finish a check. He also has three goals already this season. Rookie center Gerry Fitzgerald has four goals for the Wild.
Ryan Murphy is back for his second season with Iowa after five years with Charlotte. He paced the defensemen with three goals and three helpers.
In goal, Rockford will likely be shooting at Andrew Hammond, who has started six of Iowa’s first seven games. He’s 5-1 with a 2.64 goals against average and a .915 save percentage. Rookie Kaapo Kahkonen comes from the Finnish Ligua, where he posted six shutouts to go with a 2.20 goals against average and a .922 save percentage in 56 games with Luuko.
Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for the occasional thought over the weekend.
This game was, well, for lack of a better term, stupid. From scratching Nick Schmaltz to getting goalie’d by a complete nobody, what should have been at least an interesting affair ended up a mix of boring and frustrating. Whatta western trip this is turning out to be, eh? Let’s get to it:
– Nick Schmaltz was a healthy scratch for this game, which apparently is him being sent to his room to think about what he did for not trying hard enough recently. This was defended on Twitter most notably by Mark Lazerus who said it was part of Quenneville’s “meritocracy” this year (the subject of a recent article) but that is complete bullshit. This team is a meritocracy only when the autocrat decides to pretend it is. Exhibit A: Brandon Manning still playing regular minutes. Yes, Manning has been benched before but he’s remained dreadful even AFTER multiple benchings, so how could this be a meritocracy if he’s still in the lineup? A lack of defensive depth perhaps, whereas there are more forwards to take Schmaltz’s place while he learns his lesson? Not so fast, my frent. Andreas Martinsen replaced Schmaltz tonight, and Chris Kunitz is our other depth guy. How’s that been working out? Oh, I can tell you: Martinsen had a 45.8 CF% and took a dipshit offensive zone penalty by flattening Mikko Koskinen which led directly to the second goal. I’m not saying the Nick Schmaltz would have been the game-changing factor here or that playing him means the Hawks would have won (it wouldn’t, they would have lost anyway), but he’s already been moved to a third-line winger which is not where he belongs or clearly where he feels most comfortable, and then Q is surprised/angry that he’s demoralized and not playing well? Ah yes, let’s teach this youngin’ a lesson and meanwhile Andreas Martinsen brings GRITHEARTFART go fuck yourself, Q.
– The other stupid and frustrating part of tonight was the Hawks getting shut out by a guy playing in his sixth NHL game. And that’s not his sixth because he just broke into the league; he was last in the NHL seven fucking years ago with the Islanders. And no, he hasn’t been any good anywhere, so of course he’s going to stand on his head for the Hawks and deny Saad multiple chances, Toews with a shorthanded try in the second…really too many to list. The Hawks had 40 shots on goal and this random fuckstick stopped all of them. Typical.
– Back to the woeful defense, I’ve been hoping and occasionally saying that Brandon “Too Many Brandons” Davidson is a workable replacement for Manning or Rutta, but after getting a misconduct during Darnell Nurse‘s meltdown that’s unlikely to ever happen. It’s too bad because Davidson had a 60.9 CF% and two shots on goal, but knowing Q it’ll all be for naught and he’ll be banished to the land of wind and ghosts.
– Cam Ward shouldn’t be blamed for this loss—it was definitely a team effort—but he threw an .862 SV% which we know just won’t work. In the first he actually kept the Hawks in it, particularly mid-way through the period when the Oilers had sustained pressure. But as soon as the second period kicked off, he let one in the five hole via Drake Caggiula. The short-handed goal, also by fucking Caligula in the third, wasn’t really his fault as it was just a breakdown by all the Hawks, but at least two can be pinned on Ward tonight. And it’s just annoying that it always feels like a matter of time with this guy. He holds up for a while, even against the top two Oilers lines, but eventually a good offense breaks him down, with help from the rest of the Hawks also imploding.
With two ugly losses on back-to-back nights, the Hawks as a whole need to sit in time out and think about what they did, and I can only hide behind my couch watching what the lineup and line changes are going to be for Saturday. It’s going to be a long plane ride home when this is all over. Onward and upward.
Photo credit: Chicago Tribune
Predators vs. Lightning – 6:30
Blah blah Stanley Cup Preview blah blah. You know the storyline going in, and these are two of the aristocracy of the NHL. If you felt bad about what the Bolts did to the Hawks a couple weeks back, well your solace is that they’ve been doing that to just about everyone else, including shredding the Devils 8-3 last out (though they did manage to lose to Arizona 7-1). The Preds come in at 9-2-0, so while I think they’re like a quarter-fraud there’s really no way to prove that. Lots of get up and go in this one.
Second Screen Viewing
Avalanche vs. Flames – 8pm
Even more speed in this one, and any chance to watch Nathan MacKinnon is a night well spent. Any night where he’s getting looks at Mike Smith has a chance to be Cirque de Soleil shit. The Flames can’t seem to put it all together, as their goaltending and defensive system have let them down. So it must be a Bill Peters team! Should be goals to be found.
Other Games
Stars vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
Penguins vs. Islanders – 6pm
Capitals vs. Canadiens – 6:30
Sabres vs. Senators – 6:30
Devils vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Knights vs. Blues – 7pm
Rangers vs. Ducks – 9pm
Flyers vs. Kings – 9:30
Jackets vs. Sharks – 9:30
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 6-4-3 Oilers 6-4-1
PUCK DROP: 8pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
THEY’RE STRANGELY LIT, TOO: None, Oilers blogosphere is fucking touched, man
I suppose the good thing about an NHL season is after you cough up a confused kitten one night against a dog-ass team there’s a chance to put it right the next night. Except now you’re tired and the other team isn’t and you’re throwing your backup goalie out there on the road. And even though you got a decent performance out of him last time against this very opposition, there’s only so many times you can hit on Cam Ward before you go bust (are we still doing phrasing?) Whatever, that’s the spot the Hawks find themselves in tonight as they traipse eastward from the coast to the oil-rich darkness of the northern half of Alberta.
I can’t add much to what Hess said last night, other than to echo the unacceptable nature of last night’s loss. That’s a team aching to be beat that they took the lead on twice, and you have to have that. And getting railroaded in the 3rd smacked of complacency, and whoever let this team think they were anywhere near good enough to be complacent at any point in a game needs to be hit with a large-mouth bass. Hopefully that point has been made clear to the players, or will be before they take the ice tonight.
We won’t get word until they show up if Patrick Kane is going to play, but knowing his nature if he’s able to stand and hasn’t vomited in the five minutes before warm-up he’s probably going to. If he doesn’t, look for the same lineup as last night with Chris Kunitz filling in on the second line and the accompanying feeling of helplessness in a cold and unforgiving world. If Kane does play, I would imagine Kampf gets the suit for the night, but could see Kruger or Hayden doing so as well.
Brandon Manning‘s “Battle Of The Network Stars” reenactment for the blind last night should result in him…well, it should have resulted in him being catapulted into the Pacific but short of that Jan Rutta could easily draw back in at his expense to pair with Brandon Davidson. EAT ARBY’S.
The Oilers come in on something of the same roll they were on when these two last debated various musical topics last Sunday, though in the interim they dropped a 4-3 decision to the Wild in Minnehaha. Even in that they tossed 37 shots at Devan Dubnyk and he did Dubnyk things, so they’re playing quite well. After being McDavid And The Pips for the season’s opening weeks, they’ve gotten a surge from Leon Draisaitl‘s line and a smattering of help from others. If they do that then they’re close to a decent team. McDavid will always make sure they don’t suck.
In Edmonton, you can be sure that Todd McLellan is going to keep McDavid far away from Jonathan Toews, who had him basically pocketed all of Sunday evening. At least until overtime, which doesn’t count anyway. The thought of Run CMD lining up across from any of Artem Anisimov or SuckBag Johnson is certainly enough for your discounted Halloween candy to come rushing back out the way it came in in a state of panic. But this is how these things go. The reverse is if Toews can get to see Ryan Strome or Kyle Brodziak more often.
The Hawks closed the book on October, which they played at a 94-95-point pace for the season. That’s just about the minimum it’s going to be for a playoff spot, and that’s being awfully optimistic. As as fun as it was at times and the few signs of hope, the Hawks have to actually pick it up a bit. Not that they can avoid a mud-pit battle royale all season, but it’s a nice thought for now. They lost two points they should have had last night, so they need to start grabbing two points you wouldn’t count on them having beforehand. Maybe tonight isn’t that, but they do have ground to make up.
Game #14 Preview Suite
You’d think if a team somehow hoarded three of the top five picks of any draft year, you’d have a real peach of a team. Hell, even two should do it. That’s what the Sharks did for years with Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton who were the #1 and #2 picks in the same draft. But then again, leave it to the Oilers to collect top-five picks from a draft that pretty much sucked. So the Oilers are left with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, and Ryan Strome, and that silly look on their face they’ve had for north of 20 years. Also, the latter two cost them top-10 picks from other drafts, and who were unquestionably better players.
It’s not RNH’s fault he was taken at the top of the 2011 draft. He was the best player in a weak crop. It’s not even the Oilers’ fault. They had the top pick, and they took what was best available. Looking back through it, the best player in that draft turned out to probably be Dougie Hamilton, but you couldn’t get too many sheets of paper between him and anyone else, likely Mark Scheifele. And no one was saying Scheifele or Hamilton should go #1 in that draft at the time. Does anyone trade a #1 pick anymore? Maybe there’s a lesson there.
And Nugent-Hopkins has been fine. More than fine, really. He’s put up solid #2 center numbers pretty much his entire career. Never less than 43 points, never more than 56. On a really good team, which he’s never seen, that’s probably a third center. For the Oilers, it’s been a second, which tells you a lot, and until McJesus showed up a #1 center, which tells you more.
The Oilers probably missed their window to sell high on RNH, if they ever realized he would never live up to his #1 pick billing. That window certainly closed when they handed him $6M over seven years after his entry-level deal expired. But what do you do? You’ve taken this guy #1, McDavid wasn’t anywhere near the scene yet, and you have to look like you know what you’re doing somewhat. We said, “somewhat.”
And now the Oilers are on the brink of making that $6M look very economical, despite themselves, which we have to believe means it was on accident. After handing Leon Draisaitl a huge deal last year, the Oilers knew they pretty much had two #2 centers, and one center who would be far too expensive to be anchoring a third line. Draisaitl is getting the bigger paycheck, so they’ve left him to work out the more valuable role, behind Run CMD. Which means for the first time in his NHL career, Nugent-Hopkins is on a wing. And he seems to be taking to it.
RNH has 13 points in 11 games running with McDavid, as just about anyone would (though the Oilers keep finding players who somehow can’t, a true miracle). He’s never been anything close to a point-per-game as a center, but in that range is the buy-in for a half-decent winger with the best player in the game.
This could work out well for all parties. If RNH were to put up 60 or 70 points this year, that’s well worth $6 million a year. For the two years the Oilers have left to pay him, they would think that’s a good deal. It also might look attractive to other teams, who won’t see much past the point-total and the salary and perhaps not the factors that led to it. After all, very few teams can put a winger with a center anywhere near the quality of McDavid. There’s like three others, maybe. So get ready for an RNH-Kessel trade this summer or something.
It also works out for RNH. He will hit the UFA market at the age of 28 in the summer of 2021, though under a new CBA. After a couple years with McDavid who knows what his numbers could look like, and he can advertise being able to play both wing and center. That’s assuming he doesn’t cash in with the Oilers themselves, but free agents at 28 are still something of a rarity in the NHL. A raise from his current $6M per year should be a kip.
Nugent-Hopkins never turned into the franchise-shifting center a #1 pick suggests. But he was in a year where someone had to have that label. After all this time, both he and the Oilers may finally be maximizing their value to each other.
Game #14 Preview Suite
Obviously, nothing has changed since Sunday when these teams last met. So here’s the Q&A we ran with Scott Lewis from then (@thescottlewis).
Game #14 Preview Suite
Interesting week for Zack Kassian, and certainly more interesting than a lot of barely 4th-liners in the NHL get to have. On Saturday night, Elliote Friedman, one of the best in the reporting business, broke a story on Hockey Night In Canada’s insider segment that Kassian had responded to a healthy scratch by having his agent explore a trade. Kassian immediately denied this, because no one in history has ever admitted publicly they’re ditching out on their teammates in a huff, and then of course scored against the Hawks on Sunday. You’re welcome.
This would be the fourth organization Kassian has played and/or bitched himself out of. While we can’t ignore that Kassian has had some serious off-ice issues that he is now recovered from, it’s always been his wholly disappointing play that has gotten him punted from one coast to the other and back again. And every time he starts landing in the pressbox, he starts aching for a trade instead of maybe, call us crazy, working on what makes him tumble down the lineup every fucking time.
Kassian’s size and somewhat plus mobility for that size will always seduce some team, but what does it matter when he can’t do anything with it? He’s stone-handed and dumb, and has been ever since Ray Ferraro made a spectacle of himself while slobbering all over the Canucks trade for him in 2012. He has the instincts of a boulder, and whatever “big man intimidation” he might have carried has less and less value in today’s game. Throw in that most nights he can’t even really be bothered, and you have a player everyone wants a control-Z over. He did exactly nothing in Vancouver, just as he did nothing in Buffalo, and followed that by not even making the Canadiens NHL roster before wasting the Oilers’ time. The fact that he was traded for equally useless Brandon Prust is just about the most NHL thing ever.
And every time it goes south, there’s Kassian exploring a trade as if the next destination will finally recognize him for the force that he is in his own mind. You can be sure the Oilers would be happy to oblige if anyone was going to fall for this trick again. It’s always someone else’s fault for not recognizing his genius.
Maybe you just suck, dude. Maybe you’re a 4A player, who’s never going to be anything more than the fourth-line role you keep falling into after a team gives you a chance to be a power forward on a top six. And no amount of angling or demands from your agent are going to change that. Maybe just enjoy the NHL paycheck and scrap away as a 12th-13th forward. It’s what you’ve proven to be after six goddamn years.
And now he’ll score tonight.
Game #14 Preview Suite