Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 45-39   Pirates 39-43

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 6:05, Thursday 3:05

TV: NBCSN Monday-Wednesday, WGN Thursday

STUDIED UNDER GRADY TRIPP: Bucs Dugout

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Adbert Alzolay vs. Trevor Williams

Kyle Hendricks vs. Joe Musgrove

Yu Darvish vs. Chris Archer

Jose Quintana vs. Jordan Lyles

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora – CF

Victor Caratini – C

Addison Russell – 2B

PROBABLE PIRATES LINEUP

Kevin Newman – SS

Bryan Reynolds – RF

Starling Marte – CF

Josh Bell – 1B

Colin Moran – 3B

Corey Dickerson – LF

Elias Diaz – C

Adam Frazier – 2B

 

Ok, this time the Cubs are going to get their road record straightened out and close out strong against an inferior opponent. We really mean it this time. For sure it’s going to happen here. Yep, definitely. Totally.

Sigh.

It sounds good, but much like the Reds the Pirates might not be exactly what they seem. They were 11-15 in June, worse than the .500 record than they had in April and May, but they actually had a positive run-difference in the month which they definitely did not in April and May. That’s baseball for you.

Overall, this is a pretty middling Pirates lineup. Josh Bell has been an unholy monster of course, and he killed the Cubs when he was struggling. But other than him, the only regulars to be above average at the plate are Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman, both newcomers on he scene. If you can believe it, Gregory Polanco is hurt again and so is Francisco Cervelli, so those grounders just past short that always seem to drive in two runs from him won’t be a feature this holiday week. Marte has made a lot of contact as usual but it doesn’t really result in much. Cory Dickerson returned from the IL in June and has actually hit, so he’s been a boost and has made left field his.

Guess what? The rotation isn’t that impressive either! That’s Pirates baseball, baby! They’ve missed Jameson Taillon, who looks unlikely to pitch again this year as they’re being awfully careful with the Tommy John survivor. Archer isn’t missing bats as much as giving up more fly balls these days, which in 2019 baseball means you’re getting crushed. Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove have been ok, with the former barely walking anyone. They’ve had to jumble it in the back with nine different guys making starts in June, with the occasional use of an opener.

Like most go-nowhere teams, they’ve had trouble bridging to their closer in Felipe Vasquez. Richard Rodriguez is on a heater with a scoreless June. But Francisco Liriano has been awful of late, Kyle Crick has no idea where the ball is going, and the rest of the crew is the normal gunk you find in a bullpen for a non-contending team.

For the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks will return tomorrow night from shoulder knack that the Cubs are most certainly not rushing him back from in the wake of Cole Hamels‘s injury. Nope, not at all. Ideally, this is the only outing Hendricks will have before the break, and it’ll be a good 10 days before his next one to clear up any lingering problems, if there are any. Alzolay will get another look tonight and if all goes well he could close out the Sox series. Jason Heyward’s latest flare-up at the plate has seen him move up to fifth in the order, which has always gone well in the past of course.

The Cubs caught a bad break with Hamels going down on Friday and leaving the pen to cover eight innings. But at some point, they either need to get going to we’ll just have to live with this being what they are. I’m not there yet, so enough bullshit. Let’s go.

Baseball

There are few, if any, organizations that are a prime example of how you can fuck up a great team and feel no pressure like the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s been five seasons since they won 98 games and got Arrieta’d, and not a lot has gone right since. The past couple years have been particularly astounding, and sending Pirates fans on their way in droves. But what does it matter when Bob Nutting can still pocket revenue sharing and BAM tech money and make a huge profit?

The Pirates started last season by moving along team legend Andrew McCutchen because he was a year from free agency, and if that wasn’t bad enough (it was), they also shipped off ace Gerrit Cole because he was two years from the market. We could study how the Bucs mishandled Cole forever, trying to shoehorn him into their cutter-ground ball ways and then watching the Astros unleash a monster by letting him simply be him and chuck 97 MPH all the time.

The Pirates, in the midst of a surprise above .500 season, tried to make up for that by shipping out perennial disappointment Austin Meadows and seemingly perennially wayward Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer. Let’s be fair to Archer, he was never as good as Cole and to expect him to be was silly. And it’s not Archer’s fault that Meadows has gone on to be a plus-plus outfielder in Tampa while Glasnow was one of the best starters in the AL before getting hurt. That’s on the Pirates. But Archer is going to be the target.

The warning signs were there on Archer before, of course. Even in his good days, 2014-2018, Archer was a two-pitch pitcher. He threw only a fastball and slider, though both being weapons were more than enough for then. But the thought was as soon as either slipped, he was going to have problems. And so it has proven.

Archer’s fastball has lost a full MPH on it this season, though you wouldn’t think averaging 94 MPH instead of 95 would be a major issue. But it has been. He’s seen a 100-point rise in slugging on his fastball, to .562 this year.

Velocity hasn’t been the problem for Archer’s slider, and he still gets over 40% whiffs on the swings on it which is very good. But it has lost some of its tilt, and has more of a sweeping action these days than it did. Which means it’s been a little easier to get in the air, and Archer has seen that increase too. And these days, if you’re giving up more fly balls, you’re asking for trouble. You’re asking for death.

Archer’s home runs per nine innings have nearly doubled this season, though it’s hardly his fault that pitchers are using Titleists out there this season. Archer’s fly ball rate is the highest of his career, which normally wouldn’t be a big problem in PNC Park, but his home run per fly ball is miles above anything that’s been seen before.

Archer has tried to make up for it by introducing a change-up this season. It’s had mixed results. He does get a lot of grounders off it, which is key. He’s getting 28% whiffs-per-swing, which is definitely something to build on. He’s still giving up too much slugging on it (.500), but as this is the first year he’s tried it it’s at least a start.

Of course, the main concern for Nutting’s Pirates is affordability, and Archer is still that. He’s got a team-option of $9M next year and $11M the following, which is nothing for even a 5th starter. And with Cole hitting the open market after this season, he’ll probably pull in three times that or more. For the Bucs, that’s what matters. Shame, that.

Everything Else

I bury the lede too much, so let’s start with the Hawks signing Ryan Carpenter for three years at a million each. It’s a little weird to sign a fourth-liner for three years, but at a million apiece it makes no difference.

Still, I find it funny that the Hawks tell you they need a center to win draws in the defensive zone, they sign a center, and then everyone’s like, “Here’s a center that can win draws in the defensive zone,” without bothering to actually check if that’s true. Carpenter started nearly 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone last year. And yes, he won 53% of his draws, but that’s the only season he has at significantly above break-even. Which would matter more if faceoffs mattered as much as dumbass GMs think they do, which they don’t.

“He’ll help with the kill.” I mean, he’ll be out there, but he was the Knights’ worst PKer aside from Paul Stastny all season. Which means he’ll fit right in here, I suppose.

There’s also this narrative that the Hawks need to take defensive pressure off Toews, which Kampf can’t do alone. Except you’re no more than a year from having Strome and Dach on the roster, who are going to need to be way more sheltered than Toews, so he’s taking defensive draws then anyway. And from what we can tell, this year isn’t all that important.

Whatever. Depth signing. The Hawks also inked Kampf for two years for nothing, which is far more important. Kampf actually starts in his own zone and actually turns the play the other way, which seems to be a truly undervalued skill. That’s good.

Which means right now the Hawks have Toews-Strome-Kampf-Carpenter-Anisimov down the middle, which is too many and let’s allow for the slight possibility that the #3 overall pick makes the decision even tougher. So either they’re playing Anisimov as a bottom-six winger, or he’s going. And he needs to be going, because it opens up cap space for…well, too late for that but still, he probably should be going. 19-17-64-whatever Carpenter is down the middle isn’t poetry-worthy, but one gets the foreboding sense nothing about this team will be anyway.

Good seats still available!

Hockey

A few notes to clear out before free agency officially begins, and keep in mind this post could be wiped moot in a matter of hours or even minutes.

-As I said last night, the Andrew Shaw trade could very well work out. You kind of know what you’re getting with Shaw, and unless he’s put on the shelf with a concussion by a stiff breeze (truly possible) it’s certainly going to help. It won’t be a directional change or a pivot, but he’ll contribute. But it’s yet another sign of just how much the Hawks pro scouting sucks, and yet there’s never been any impetus for change there.

Quick, name the last player the Hawks acquired out of an entry-level deal that was any good. That was a win. Strome doesn’t count because he was in his entry-level deal and the info on him was still mostly from the amateur scouting. I’ll give you Connor Murphy, even though everyone else hates him and he honestly might not still be as good as the player he was traded for. Richard Panik? Artem Anisimov for one season between two all-stars? And he was worse than the player they traded for him. And then they went and got that player back for a player much better than he is who just got $12M from the Rangers.

You have to go all the way back to Antoine Vermette, and before that the list isn’t very cheerful until you get back to Johnny Oduya (the first time). And you know the list of players that haven’t worked out at all. Look, if Rob Scuderi and Brandon Manning are on your list at all, your list sucks and I don’t care what else is on it.

Stan Bowman keeps making these moves and they keep sucking and yet nothing ever seems to change. Just you wait until you get a look at Olli Maatta. The Hawks seems to gain cover from fans and media for bringing back old names and cashing in on memories, and by the time everyone realizes these players suck now they’re on to the next one or the season’s gone anyway.

-Speaking of frugality, which is a big reason people seem to like the Shaw move, the Hawks are right in sitting out this market for the most part…if they indeed do. There aren’t really foundational players to be found unless you want to offer sheet Marner or Aho, and the Hawks won’t because they think they have to keep that from happening to DeBrincat. Fair enough, we’ll see. $9M for Lee is a function of him being one of the very few pieces out there and cashing in on desperation, and good for him, but you don’t want to be paying that. Three years for Pavelski is in the same range. It’s just not a very good class, and you can’t force it to be by paying more for it.

But if you’re truly trying to be frugal, why acquire Shaw for $4M instead of just keeping Kahun around who is basically going to give you the same thing for at least $2.5M less for the next few years? With a lot less dumbass offensive zone penalties and better health? More speed and durability? Younger? Am I supposed to believe Annette Frontpresence on the SECOND power play unit is that important?

The Hawks will say they got Maatta out of it, but he’s terrible and also seems to have crowded Henri Jokiharju out of the lineup completely. Which is either scandalous or they’ve decided Jokiharju sucks now which is also scandalous. So yeah, ok, Shaw isn’t that expensive but there was an even better money-saving way to go about it. This is middle path shit and the Hawks want pats on the back for like, spelling their name right on the SAT. It’s not imaginary or creative.

-When all is said and done today or this week, the Hawks still have not informed me how they plan on getting the puck to their forwards. Maatta can’t do it. de Haan can’t do it. Seabrook can’t do it. Keith can like do it maybe once per game. Gustafsson can’t because he’s too slow. It’s not Murphy’s game. How? You say you have scoring but what does that matter if the forwards have to break out themselves?

The Hawks have literally no transition game right now. None. Jokiharju is supposedly an answer to that, and they don’t even want him on the roster to begin the season. Boqvist is supposed to be that, but he’s one guy, a year away most likely at best, and also a smurf.

Again, there doesn’t seem to be a plan here, or any sense of how the game is played now. But hey, partial season ticket plans available!

Baseball

BOX SCORES:

Game One: White Sox 6 – Twins 4

Game Two: White Sox 3 – Twins 10

Game Three: White Sox 4 – Twins 3

 

 

Full disclosure:  The picture above is of my friend Chris, with whom I have a running bet.  The bet is every time the Hawks play the Wild, or the Sox play the Twins each game is worth one beer.  We keep a running tally (well he does, and I question his accounting methods) and with how terrible the Sox and Hawks have been it’s become quite costly.  So for the Sox to take 2 of 3 from a scorching hot Twins team, well, that’s better than gold.  That’s beer.  Anyways, the Sox did indeed take 2 of 3 from the Twins.  I said in the preview that I would consider winning one of three a victory, so I guess taking the series is…ultimate victory?  I dunno.  Either way, the team and the fans should be very pleased after today’s rain delayed game.  I assumed (almost correctly) that after Giolito was forced out of the game due to the lengthy rain delay that the bullpen would implode and the Sox would lose the rubber match.  Evan Marshall tried with a little help from Leury Garcia (who had a bad case of the yips today), but Bummer and Colome were able to seal the deal.  To the bullets!

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

 

-Thankfully Moncada only missed one game after being drilled on his knee by Chris Sale last series, so that bullet got dodged as it were.  Looks like Tim Anderson is gonna be out 4 to 6 weeks thanks to a shitty Fenway infield and a high ankle sprain.  Losing him not only hurts the fun quotient of the team, but forces Leury Garcia into SS duty, which is quite the ask for someone who clearly has either a bum hamstring or a quad.  Both his errors today were due to his footwork and being out of position.  Hopefully the All Star break gives him the recuperative time he needs, as the Sox are going to need him down the stretch to keep the infield from becoming a clown parade

-Despite dropping off Yonder Alonso at the drive-thru at Goodwill, Zack Collins isn’t getting consistent playing time.  I don’t know what the idea was by bringing him up, but I can’t believe it was to watch Palka pulverize the infield dirt with ground ball after ground ball.  If you’re gonna have him up here, fucking PLAY HIM.  It can’t get any simpler than that.

-In other prospect news, it’s time to REJOICE, because Cease has risen from AAA to take the start against the Tigers Wednesday!  Good seats still available!  Seriously though, I am very excited to see what he can do against a semi-major league roster this week.  I fully expect him to get sent back down after the start for the All Star break, which is fine.  I just wanna watch that curveball make Nick Castellanos poop himself a little.

-Hoss Detwiler is better than Jose Berrios.  Just kidding.  It was nice to see the Sox be able to get to Berrios for a change, as in the past he’s had little trouble mowing them down one after the other.  Detwiler himself was…fine.  He was actually better than Nova the following day (not a super high bar to clear, but here we are), and I’d say he’s earned himself another turn in the rotation.  Just don’t forget Despaigne pitched well in his first start too.

– 2/3rds of Eloy’s hits this series went yard, which is exciting.  What is NOT exciting is that he got 3 hits, and is still parked below a .250 average.  I’m not being impatient, mind you, I just want him to bat .310 and hit another 25 dingers by year’s end.  No big deal.

-Now that Yonder Alonso is gone, I need someone else to shit on in each recap.  As nobody has been as terrible as him, I’m going with Ricky Renteria.  His lineups still suck, and his management of the bullpen (albeit slowly improving from the start of the year) is still terrible.  I hate being that “fire the coach” guy, but the evidence in support is starting to rack up, especially with how he’s handling injured players.

-Jon Jay has been a pleasant surprise so far, I’m just not expecting it to last.  The OF situation is still a dumpster fire, though Eloy had a nice sliding catch Saturday, and he even managed to not get hurt doing it.  Ryan Cordell is boring and bad.

-Next up is the Tigers of Detroilet, with the Sox now 3 games back of .500.  Sure would be nice to head into the All Star break with a winning record.  If that’s gonna be a thing, then 3 of 4 against the Tigers is the bare minimum, because you know the damn Cubs aren’t going to cough up 2 games to them.  Onward!

Everything Else

Game 1 Box Score: Reds 6, Cubs 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Reds 0

Game 3 Box Score: Reds 8, Cubs 6

The Cubs will have to reconcile losing another road series, not winning their sixth straight series, and their first losing month in over two years. I would sit here and lament they hits they didn’t get, the pitches they didn’t make, and the mistakes they made. Still, there’s little you can do when your best pitcher has to leave after an inning and is probably out six weeks now. Mike Montgomery has apparently lost all feelings in his limbs, and the Cubs were never going to recover. So they split the other two.

Still, Schwarber’s clank in the first is basically the difference today, but at least it’s just a physical mistake instead of the mental ones the Cubs have specialized in of late. Still, they had their shots in the 7th and 8th and couldn’t quite get over the line. And of course, there isn’t any fire the pen can’t pour kerosine on, especially when they’re convinced Kyle Ryan can do anything. Which he can’t, even if he fools you with a couple good outings.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-This one especially stings today because it felt avoidable. Eugenio Suarez was nowhere on Quintana curveballs yesterday, and Lester has beaten him with a couple to get to two strikes in the first today. So why was he going to a fastball on 3-2 that got turned into putty on its way to the river? That feels like a mistake that didn’t have to happen. Maybe Contreras and Lester thought he was sitting on the curve, but it’s been a couple days since he proved that mattered.

-At least Heyward is hitting?

-16 change-ups from Quintana yesterday, the most he’s thrown in a start all season. A little more drop, though not as much fade as earlier in the year. But he threw it, showed he had it, and he got six shutout innings. Sure, he had some luck as there was very solid contact early in the game, but these two things are still connected.

-I don’t know what’s happened to Monty. His sinker isn’t as effective and he’s getting labeled. The only pitch he doesn’t have an obscene slugging against is his curve, and he can’t base his approach on that. It may just be a lost cause this season.

-Stop trying to make Kyle Ryan happen.

-They actually did get a decent outing from Brach on Friday, and maybe, maybe if he can build on that he can be part of the pen that keeps leads down instead of protecting one. That’s been the Cubs problem, not blowing leads but keeping teams close for the offense to catch up.

-The designating CarGo would seem to be an endorsement of Almora, who had four hits on the weekend. Or Bote, but he only got one start. Perhaps it’s a precursor for something else. If Almora is going to make his last stand, it probably has to be now.

Onwards…

Everything Else

I know what you’re thinking, and you’re not exactly wrong. You’re just not totally right, either. At least there’s a good chance you’re not entirely right.

Yes, the Hawks pro scouting sucks. And this is why they keep going back to the well of, “Well, he was good here before!” And it’s never worked. Versteeg was terrible. Oduya was past it. Sharp was too. Campbell was barely ok in his one year return. Andrew Ladd did nothing. But don’t think the Hawks don’t like the idea of the name recognition in their still somewhat nascent and parochial fanbase.

So I can’t tell you with any sort of confidence that the Hawks have done the hockey background on their trade or Andrew Shaw this afternoon. If it got beyond, “He was good here before let’s try again!” it would be an upset. Did the Hawks give up nothing? Well, a 2nd rounder isn’t nothing, and it’s one of the second round picks they got back for Shaw in the first place. Adding a third the next year seem a little steep, but hardly a crime.

And Shaw isn’t past it as the others were. He put up 19 goals in just 63 games last season, and 47 points. He’s not slow, though he’s not as quick as he used to be. He’s still a decent forechecker, and those hands around the net haven’t gone anywhere.

But there are concerns. One Shaw hasn’t been able to stay in one piece since leaving. After being a symbol of durability during his stay here, Shaw has missed 14, 31, and 19 games the past three seasons. He’s a couple surgeries in, which isn’t going to help the mobility much.

Secondly, if the Hawks think this is going to solve their top-six hole, they’re mistaken. It’s not what Shaw is, it’s never what Shaw was. He’s a third-line player who gives you scoring from beneath. Playing him with Toews or Strome isn’t going to do much, because he’s not the puck-winner he used to be (though the metrics are still strong). Still, Shaw spent most of last season with Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin, so he can still play with skill. He won’t kill you up there, the disappointment is you could have done better.

His contract isn’t a total millstone, though it is somewhat curious that the Hawks got it right the first time with Shaw, in that he was a nice player to have but the exact type of player you cash in on when they become expensive and replace from within, and now the Hawks have gone out and got him again when he is expensive and older. Their bet with Ryan Hartman didn’t work, or they said it didn’t, and now there hasn’t been anyone else. If only John Hayden was the player every writer and broadcaster seems to think he is but isn’t. $3.9M for three years is what Shaw costs, which takes him to 30.

This is probably a sign that the Hawks don’t plan to do much tomorrow, as the prices have gotten too rich for their blood. Jay Zawaski (friend of the program) has said as much. That’s not total idiocy, as $8M for Anders Lee or slightly less for Joe Pavelski could be problematic. This is also a huge bet on Alex DeBrincat and especially Dylan Strome, who have been the center of the Hawks’ comments and thoughts all summer. Their extensions clearly have them terrified, and the Hawks are going to look pretty damn stupid if Strome backs up the same way that Schmaltz did in his free agent year that got him punted to the desert.

Again, in a purely hockey sense, the move works. What doesn’t work is that no one is going to believe they’ve done their due diligence on this, merely once against attempting to get the band back together. And even if this one works, and it easily could, it leaves you no faith that this front office has the slightest clue on how to get this team from Point A to Point B.

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 44-37   Reds 36-42

GAMETIMES: Friday 6:10, Saturday 3:10, Sunday 12:10

TV: WGN Friday, ABC Saturday, NBCSN Sunday

SONS OF LARKIN: Blog Red Machine

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Cole Hamels vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

Jon Lester vs. Anthony DeSclafani

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Yasiel Puig – RF

Jose Iglesias – SS

Scooter Gennett – 2B

Phillip Irvin – LF

Curt Casali – C

 

The Cubs begin the second-half of the season in the bouncy-castle that is The Great American Ballpark. Get ready for Darth Eugenio for the weekend. There’s no avoiding it.

The Reds have been bipolar of late. They swept the Astros on the road (an admittedly short-staffed ‘Stros but still), and then took the first two from the Brewers in Milwaukee. But then they lost the last two, and then were clocked by the Angels at home for two games, scoring one run in each. All in all it’s been a pretty disappointing June for the Redlegs, as they’ve gone 9-12 after a 15-13 May. Their metrics still suggest they should be far above where they are, but it’s getting a bit late to keep claiming that. Still, a good showing against the Northside Nine this weekend would give June something of a hint of gloss.

In the month, the offense for the Reds has dried up. Those of you waiting on the Derek Dietrich bubble to burst can rejoice, as he managed a 66 wRC+ in June with a glittering .277 wOBA. Only Votto and Puig have pulled their weight the last three weeks, with part-time dash from Jesse Winker. The Reds are in fact last in runs in June, but that’s never stopped them from clubbing the Cubs over the head at that spaceport of a park.

The rotation is moving the wrong direction as well. Anthony DeSclafani has been great in the month, with a 2.40 FIP. Tanner Roark has been on the upside of his usual performance, but Sonny Gray can’t find the plate again and Luis Castillo has been so wayward he’s being picked up by air traffic control. The only thing keeping Castillo’s ERA from blowing up is he still strikes out a ton of batters and some Righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery of .208. Gray has not been so lucky, which is why his ERA is over 5.00. The Cubs will see them both, and patience is the order of the day when they do.

Like it’s been with the Reds all season, you should probably do the work against the starters because they do have a very good pen. David Hernandez, Michael Lorenzen and his jersey that’s holding on for dear life, Amir Garrett, and Jared Hughes have all been lights-out over the past couple weeks, so the Cubs recent habit of falling behind by multiple runs is not the way to go about this weekend at all. Given the state of the Reds offense right now, that isn’t a huge ask from the Cubs rotation. But again, dumb things tend to happen at this park, and we don’t mean the food.

It’s now the second half, and while the Cubs usually wait until after the break to really get going, there’s no reason to not to start now. Both the Reds and Pirates are moving backwards, and by the time they get to the Southside to close it out the Sox might not even be able to field a team. They sort of muddled through the first half. And maybe that’s what they are. Still, July’s schedule is S-A-W-F-T, and if they’re ever going to kick to another gear and open up some ground, it’s right now.

Enough of this shit. Time to make the chimi-fucking-changas.

Baseball

It can seem strange to complain at this halfway mark, because the Cubs do sit on top of what has turned out to be baseball’s most competitive division. It’s where you want to be. And the addition of Craig Kimbrel for just money means that the Cubs limited assets can be used for just one more arm in the pen or maybe a bat to play second or right or center. And maybe Ben Zobrist returns to even that out a little. There is greater potential for the Cubs to be much better in the second half than much worse, let’s say.

But there are some things lingering from the aftermath of last season I can’t quite get past. And I’m one of the few who doesn’t think last season was the utter disaster a lot of others do. It’s best not to overreact to two losses, or that you couldn’t match an utter historic run by the Brewers when you were playing for 45 straight days. The Cubs were one game short of playing .600 baseball last year, which in any other circumstance you would never even look at twice.

We’ve been over the front office’s claims of “production over promise,” and they get a half-excuse because of ownership tying one hand behind their backs financially. Still, Almora and Russell haven’t ever really proven to be every day major leaguers, and that continues. Russell in all senses, of course. Carlos Gonzalez is dead, and Daniel Descalso is rotting. But let’s leave that aside for a moment.

The other major theme of the offseason was that the players themselves had told the front office that things had become too loose. They wanted more batting practice, they wanted Maddon to be a little more hands-on, and they felt that the team wasn’t always tuned in or being tuned in. They wanted more accountability. And fair enough. Less focus on the petting zoos and magicians, and more on improving. All makes sense.

Which makes me curious why the Cubs still play so many loose games. We saw it in this past Braves series. The Friday game against the Mets was loose. We can go back through the rest of the schedule, but you know they’re there. Mental errors, bad ABs at crucial times, abstract fielding at times (though the Cubs remain a very good defensive team), unconscionable decisions on the basepaths (and Captain Rizzo seems to be a main culprit there). Their approach at the plate overall wavering from very good in April to very bad at spots.

We’ve heard Maddon lament to the press that his players have gone away from the patient, all-fields plan of attack at the plate that had them lighting everyone up during that 22-7 stretch. You’ve seen Baez get in a pull-everything rut. Same with Heyward. Same with Rizzo. We can go on. I guess I would believe Maddon would say this to the press before his own players, but I highly doubt he would actually do that.

So if the players thought they were too loose or unfocused at times last season, and the front office together with them put in practices and ploys to address that, and they’re still playing loose games too often, where do we put the blame? You can’t put it on Maddon again when you made the changes from what you’d thought he’d let go last year. Is there a complacency amongst the core of this group? Or is it just that Kris Bryant has been off–possibly due to a concussion thanks to Jason Heyward‘s shoulder–and hasn’t matched the MVP level of May? Because that does make a huge difference.

Once again, the Cubs marks with men-on-base seems to be a major bugaboo. Overall, only the Giants have been worse in that spot as far as average in the NL. What’s quirky is that the Cubs are middle of the pack in on-base percentage with runners in scoring position, which means they take their walks in those spots. But the inclination is that those who do get on base regularly are doing so for those who simply can’t hit–your Russells, CarGos, Almoras, Descalsos.

Turns out that’s only partially true. Baez and Contreras have been very good with runners in scoring position. Schwarber and Bryant have been really bad. Rizzo has been better than average. At the end of the day, I wouldn’t expect that to continue with Bryant. It’s been a problem for Schwarber his whole career, something batting him first mitigates a touch. Again, much like last year, Bryant’s struggles are a bigger issue than people are putting focus on.

Beyond that, the rotation has been just about as iffy as ZIPS said it might be. There have been brilliant stretches from each pitcher–no really, there have–and there’s been a rut for each (some bigger than others). This might be what Cole Hamels is, given how good he was upon arrival last year. Lester is not going to be LESTER anymore, but he seems to be able to gut his way through. If Hendricks is healthy, there’s no reason you can’t expect brilliance. So the other two are the variables. Quintana needs to rediscover his change, or he might have to Rich Hill this and just throw his curve way more. But it’s not outlandish. Darvish just needs to simplify. The Cubs aren’t far from having the dominating rotation they flashed earlier. They also aren’t far from having a dysfunctional one.

The pen, as anyone who has watched baseball for more than 10 minutes, has evened out a bit because it’s a bullpen. The Cubs have Kimbrel, Kintzler, and Strop at the end, and all have proven track records even if age will keep them all from being automatic every outing. Cishek may be on empty, and we can never know with Edwards. Maples may have figured it out in Iowa, though we’ve heard that before. They probably need one more from the outside, but then again any of those three coming good and a move as a multi-inning weapon for Alzolay and you’re pretty much solved? Doesn’t seem like a huge ask, does it?

But to me, the Cubs have to lock in more. They can’t give away games simply by not being all there as they’ve done a little too often this season. They don’t have the Dodgers margins. And if they can’t, I know Maddon will pay the price. But you’ll have to convince me he was the one responsible after he was reined in last year.

Everything Else

We’ll wrap up our free agent wishlist, and wait for the Hawks to sign players we never considered, with the biggest fish out there, unrestricted or restricted. And let’s cut the heart out of the Leafs while we’re at it. 

Mitch Marner

Height: 6-0 (not really)  Weight: 175 lb

Age: 22   Shoots: Right

2018-2019

82 games – 26 G – 68 A – 94 P – 22 PIM

52.0 CF% (+0.38 Relative)  52.8 x GF% (+1.63 Relative) 51.6 ZSR

Why The Hawks Should Sign Him

Because he’s really good. Because he might actually be a generational player. Because 22-year-olds who just racked up 94 points are generally nowhere near the market, and we can thank the Toronto media and fans for this bit of intrigue. Because he’s another torch-bearer when Toews and Kane can’t do it anymore. Because it’s a statement of intent. Because it makes it clear the last two seasons were simply unacceptable. Because it shows imagination and hutzpah. Because the Hawks might actually have to sell some tickets instead of papering their sellout streak anyway possible. Because it would certainly placate the veterans you still want to be a part of things. Because it would be exciting and suddenly your team might just be Showtime of the Central Division. I really don’t even have to sell this.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Well, that’s just as obvious, isn’t it? He ties up the cap something fierce. He doesn’t help the defense other than scoring more goals. There are questions about his appetite for getting involved in the middle of the ice when things matter most, though that’s probably drummed up by the Toronto media again to help drive his price down. He’s a touch small, but that shouldn’t be a concern at all. He doesn’t help the kill much, though he did kill penalties for the first time this season, and is someone whose speed and threat could be a real weapon on the kill. Point-men would be a little more careful with the puck knowing any slip is sending Marner the other way.

Verdict

Ok, let’s first figure out how it’s possible, because it is. Let’s just say right now it takes a seven-year, $77M offer. It might even be more, but let’s go with the $11M figure for now. The Hawks have just over that in space, so signing Marner to that leaves no room for Perlini and Kampf. Well, actually it does, because you can be 10% over until opening night.

So for the 185th time, get Anisimov off this roster. You just drafted his replacement anyway, and said replacement should probably be playing, and if Dach really isn’t up for it this season guess what? Marner can play center too. It’s not ideal, but you can do it. So there’s $2-4M in space depending on what you have to take back to get Arty’s beleaguered ass out of town. That probably gets you through this season, though your defense is still a goddamn mess. But we’ve pretty much already acquiesced to that being the case.

BUT WHAT ABOUT STROME AND TOP CAT HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY THEM?! That’s been the squeal from the front office itself for about six months now. First, pump the brakes on Strome for a hot minute. This time last year the Hawks were telling everyone that they had to reserve space to throw $6-7M a year at Nick Schmaltz. He’s on a trainer’s table in Glendale now. Strome gave you a good 50 games. So did Schmaltz. Let’s just say he’s got more to prove.

Still, you’ll obviously need more than $6M in space or so that moving Arty along will give you, plus the minuscule bump the cap will get. It’s the season after that when the new US TV deal will kick in and the cap will get a noticeable bump, so we’ve got some work to do.

Let’s attack another way. The Hawks currently have $23M open for next year. $11M to Marner brings that down to $12M, but a punting of Arty makes it somewhere between $14-$16. If everything goes well this year, DeBrincat and Strome eat that up, and you also haven’t re-signed Crawford yet. But, one or two of Murphy, de Haan, or Maatta probably have to go because they all do the same thing and by 2020 Adam Boqvist and Ian Mitchell had better be in the lineup or everyone’s fired. You’re probably selling Brandon Saad too unless he does something pretty goofy this season. After that the US TV deal kicks in and you have more room and fucking figure it out.

As for the draft picks? Who gives a shit? You’re not going to have a top three pick again, and you supposedly just got your #1 center of the future. You clearly think you have enough young d-men to make up for the fact that none of them are a true #1, but it may be that you don’t need that anymore. You can find players at #18 or #25 or wherever the Hawks plan on finishing, but you can find players anywhere too. Maybe you convince the Leafs to send one of the #1s back to you for Gustafsson or something. Or you get another #1 for him at the deadline when he’s goofing another 60 points off the power play but Jokiharju and Boqvist are ready to go and hey maybe Denver is done early and Mitchell is too. Whatever, how long do you want to be in the wilderness?

Basically, it doesn’t make any sense but it can be figured out. Fortune favors the brave. Let’s get nuts.