Baseball

                 VS

Records: Twins 52-38   White Sox 37-41

Gametimes: Friday – 7:10/Saturday – 3:10/Sunday – 1:10

TV: Friday/Saturday NBCSN – Sunday WGN

Uff Da: Puckett’s Pond

Pitching Matchups:

Jose Berrios vs. TBD

Michael Pineda vs. Chevy Nova

Kyle Gibson vs. Lucas Giolito

PROBABLE TWINS LINEUP

  1. Max Kepler – CF
  2. Jorge Polanco – SS
  3. Nelson Cruz – DH
  4. Mitch Garver – C
  5. Luis Arraez – LF
  6. Eddie Rosario – RF
  7. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
  8. CJ Cron – 1B
  9. Miguel Sano – 3B

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

  1. Leury Garcia – SS
  2. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann (C/DH)
  5. Eloy Jimenez – LF
  6. Jon Jay – RF
  7. Zack Collins (C/DH)
  8. Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
  9. Ryan Cordell (CF)

 

So the White Sox managed to avoid Total Disaster for at least a few days, but now it looms large again in their windshield with the arrival of the world destroying monster that is the…Minnesota Twins?  Yeah, no kidding, I don’t get it either.  What a difference a year makes.  This time last season the Twins were moping along in the middle of the AL Central, nothing really special.  Both their young breakout stars in Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton had soul crushingly bad regression years, so bad that they were both sent down to AAA.  One of the two (Buxton) turned his shit around and set the world on fire down there, only to be roundly ignored by Twins management in what can only be described as service time manipulation.  Miguel Sano continued playing shitty, then ended up lacerating his foot somehow, and spent the entire offseason recovering from surgery.  The difference between the two has continued, as Buxton has been mashing the ball, and Sano (having missed all of spring training recovering) has been striking out in approximately half his at bats.  Normally the Twins probably would’ve sent Sano back down, but due to a rash of injuries he’s been forced to work through his issues at the big league level.

Elsewhere on the infield, Jorge Polanco is raking at a clip that earned him a spot on the AL all star team next month.  He’s hitting a cool .321 with an over 900 OPS.  I don’t know how sustainable this is, as his career OPS is somewhere around the range of  .780, and his BABIP sits at .350, which hints at some regression coming.  That being said, he’s currently the most dangerous hitter in the Twins lineup along with Max Kepler, who’s corrected most of his K issues from last year, while retaining his power levels.

The Twins pitching staff is fronted by ace Jose Berrios, their best pitching prospect since Johan Santana rolled his way through the AL central.  He’s backed up by a career year from Jake Odorizzi (who the Sox miss this turn) who has somehow not let an insanely high fly ball rate turn into a bunch of gopher balls.  Reclamation project Michael Pineda continues his return from maladies that included tommy john and knee surgeries.  When healthy during his tenure with the Yankees he struck people out at a very high rate, but was susceptible to the long ball.  That continues this season, where his HR per 9 stands at an unsightly 1.67.  Next closest on the rotation is Kyle Gibson with a 1.25.

For the Sox, the main storyline right now is the injuries to Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada.  Timmy figures to be out at least a month with a high ankle sprain, while Moncada is dealing with a contusion to his knee.  Yoan figures to be day-to-day and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts tonight.  If he can’t go, it would probably mean Jose Rondon taking reps at 3rd.  Zack Collins figures to get more playing time now that Yonder Alonso has been DFA-ed to the Big AAA In The Sky.  Who is starting on the mound for the Sox tonight is yet to be determined, but with no moves as of yet, it figures to be a bullpen game.  If Carson Fulmer can repeat the efficiency that he showed against the Red Sox the other day, perhaps letting him go 3 to 4 innings might help an overtaxed bullpen.  Ivan Nova goes Saturday, with Giolito taking the bump Sunday.  They’ll all have their work cut out for them, as the Twins lead the AL in most offensive categories and score runs at an alarming rate.  Anything but a sweep here will probably feel like a win, so Lets Go Sox!

 

 

Baseball

So here we are just about the halfway point of this halfway season in what feels like the 8th season of the White Sox rebuild.  There’s quite a bit to unpack , but what does it all really mean?  I feel like there’s been measurable progress this season for the first time ever with the rebuild.  Not that there wasn’t progress with the team before, but it was all measured by what trades and prospects that Rick Hahn was able to hoard either in the offseason or at the trade deadline.  Now this season we are starting to see some of the core of the rebuild coalesce and start to cut their teeth on some series wins.  So let’s dig in and see what’s what, shall we?

The Sox currently sit in 3rd place in the AL Central with a 37-41 record, a whopping 14 games behind this weekend’s opponent, the dirty Twins.  They’re also 6.5 games out of the wild card conversation, though just a few weeks ago they had that number down to 2.  They’re 4th from the bottom in the AL in runs scored with a -63 run differential, and third from the bottom with a team 5.03 ERA.  On the surface, this looks pretty terrible and would make me want to not watch another Sox game for the rest of the season let alone write about them.  Yet the games have been pretty fun thus far, and they only sit at 4 games below .500.  What does it all mean?

I think it’s safe to say that based on the squad that took the field at the beginning of April that this White Sox team has performed slightly above expectations.  ZIPS projections had the team at 71 wins for the entire season, a .444 win percentage.  The Sox current win percentage sits at .474, which projects out to a 77-85 season.  Compared to last season’s 62 wins that’s a drastic improvement.    The Sox have made this step forward even while dealing with Carlos Rodon’s exploding joke elbow, or in spite of the fact that they find their 5th starters for the rotation under the Green Line L tracks next to the Hockeenight home office.  The projections also included Jon Jay, who just this past week finally found his way into the Sox outfield.

We’ve seen solid progression from Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez.  Lucas Giolito has transformed into a legitimate top of the rotation candidate.  James McCann is going to be an All Star this season.  There’s a lot to be excited about, yet I can’t help but feel a little frustrated.  With all of the bad luck the Sox have endured, i feel like an 81+ win season was right there for the taking if the front office had any interest in doing so.  Instead we got the ridiculous song and dance with Manny Machado, which lead to nothing other than Yonder Alonso being set out by the trash yesterday.  If the Sox front office had any interest in putting a winning product out on the field this season Ivan Nova would be somewhere else, as would Jon Jay.  The Sox starting rotation would have an ERA under 6, and the OF would have a combined WAR of more than 3 (2.3 of which belongs to Eloy).  Dylan Cease wouldn’t continue to waste pitches down in AAA, working towards some invisible finish line that Rick Hahn has set for him.  Instead we are left to wonder where the Sox could’ve been at this point. It’s frustrating, but also worrisome at the same time, as the Sox will need to add outside talent to the core if they have deigns on competing next season and I don’t feel like Hahn knows how to add via free agency.  That’s further out, however.  Closer to now is the back half of the season.

Looking to the 2nd half of this season depends entirely on how long Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson are out.  If it’s a lengthy absence for either (or god forbid both), the 77 win season isn’t gonna happen.  The Sox -61 run differential is also begging for a market correction, as a team with offensive stats like that is coasting along on some luck.  In addition to that, there’s the question of whether or not the Sox sell off some pieces in the coming weeks.  Alex Colome, despite the blown save in the Red Sox series, would be a nice addition to any team looking to add for a stretch run, as would Aaron Bummer.  Wellington Castillo could be had for parts, and if there’s an offer for James McCann that blows Rick Hahn’s socks off I’d expect him to at least consider it.  Add all these parts up, and I feel like the ZIPS projection of 71 wins might be right on the money.  Dylan Cease coming up, or Zack Collins getting consistent playing time may alter those numbers slightly, but not much more than a win or two in either direction.  Adding 8 wins to the Sox total from last season is a solid improvement, and I’m in no way upset about it.

Just kinda disappointed.

Everything Else

According to all the latest gossip the Hawks think they’ve solved their blue-line issues with the Maata and de Haan signings…no really, they think that! This leaves us with forwards to noodle on as free agency approaches, and while we’re not actually convinced they’ll bring Zuccarello here, at this point, why not go through the thought exercise for shits and giggles? And you may be wondering what the pumpkin image could possibly have to do with him—well, in Italian “zuccarello” means “little pumpkin guy.” No shit, it does. See, you learn something new every day!

Physical Stats

Height: 5’8″ Weight: 185

Age: 31 Shot: Left

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

Team: Stars Position: LW

48 GP – 12 G – 28 A – 40 pts – 24 PIM

49.1 CF% (3.8 CF% Rel) – 52 xGF (5.6 xGF% Rel) – 48.9 oZS%

Why the Hawks Should Sign Him

Mats Zuccarello could be a legit top-six winger, and if the Hawks can get him off a division foe’s roster, so much the better. Last year was obviously a weird one for him—he was at nearly a point-per-game pace with the Rangers but just when he was traded to the Stars he had a rather freak injury against—who else—the Hawks, and didn’t return until the playoffs. But when he did, he led the Stars in points with 11 in 13 games.

All of this is to say that Zuccarello might come a bit cheaper thanks to the broken arm but he’s also a reliable playmaker. Put him with Toews and Sikura and he may help Dylan finally pop his goal cherry. If CCYP keeps Toews and Kane together, throw Zuccarello on the left side—it’d be a top-heavy situation and personally I want to see Kane with Top Cat and Dylan Strome, but the point is that Zuccarello could be a quality contributor on the top six. And they may be able to get him for under 6 mildo. He understandably wants a payday, and his playoff run will undoubtedly help, but with the Stars dithering and his time missed last year because of injury, the Hawks might just be able to finagle, say, 5.25 and get away with it.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Zuccarello is already north of 30 and will be looking for a big contract. Even if it’s a relative bargain, i.e., not above $6 million, if he wants five years or more that should be a deal-breaker for the Hawks. We have plenty of aging stars signed for long deals already, thank you.

And while he had a good playoff run and scored 37 points in 46 games with the Rangers last year, he’s never put up more than 61 (and that only once) and he averages about 15 goals a year. Erik Gustafsson had more than that last season, for christ’s sake. The last thing the Hawks need is to overpay yet another aging forward who just ends up in the flotsam of the bottom six.

Verdict

Mats Zuccarello would not do significant damage to the Hawks, provided they don’t sign him to some dumbass, 8-year, 6.5 mildo contract. On the cheap he would be a proven playmaker who could improve the scoring of those around him, play top minutes, and be on the power play. I’d certainly rather have Zuccarello on the second unit than Artem Anisimov. But again, overpaying a guy on the downswing is not what the Hawks need. It’d be risky but that’s never stopped them before.

Baseball

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 8, Braves 3

Game 2 Box Score: Braves 3, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Braves 5, Cubs 3

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 9, Braves 7

So we’ll do a half-season reflection thing tomorrow before they kick it off with the Reds, but this homestand and this series is kind of just what the Cubs are in 10 games, or four games, or whatever. They can bash Lucas Giolito one night, but that only comes after looking decidedly Patches and Poor Violet against Ivan Nova. They’ll split with the Mets, and then split with the NL’s hottest team in the Braves. They’ll look loose as shit one game, and then show a fair amount of determination and heart the next to salvage it all. They waver from great offense to mystifying one, a great start to a few terrible ones and back. So hovering right above .500 seems about right.

Oh, and they might actually have a bullpen now?

To the bullets:

The Two Obs

-I was like most Cubs fans in about to get really upset when they were down 6-1. I wasn’t sure why they needed a six-man rotation and I wasn’t sure why they needed to give Chatwood a full week. And just like on Sunday, when I was about to really go over the edge on this team they come up with seven straight runs, take much better ABs, and get a win that will feel important down the road.

-Kintzler-Strop-Kimbrel. Has a ring to it.

-I’m gonna feel a little bad for Chatwood, because he just hasn’t been used enough. There are reasons for that obviously, because you can’t say he’s earned automatic use. Still, he started the month with that iffy insertion after a rain delay in St. Louis. He threw one inning a full week later, and then 2.2 innings three days later in Colorado. Nine days before his first start, and then a full week before this one. That’s 14 innings over 27 days. For someone who should be throwing multiple innings every time, unless it’s total disaster.

-Speaking of total disaster, I present Mike Montgomery. His sinker and fastball are getting crushed this year, which doesn’t really give him the platform to use his change. That’s how Tuesday’s game got away.

-Speaking of which, the Cubs were loose in that one and loose last night, and that keeps happening. I don’t want to pin it all on Willson Contreras, who nearly brought the Cubs back last night by himself, but he had three key mistakes that either led to critical runs or cost the Cubs a big chance at one of their own.

I feel like some of Contreras’s devotion to making things happen is that his greatest skill on defense has been taken away from him. Teams know about the arm now, so there’s few chances of backpicks and caught stealings. When he does get a chance to throw to the bases, he seems overjoyed by the fact and it feels like he’s missing the target way more than he used to. He’s already got 10 errors, when he had 11 all last year. It puts more focus on his framing and blocking, which are both still below average. Last night’s first run was all on him and had Yu immediately on the defensive.

-Oh, Yu. I wish I could explain it away as easily as Chatwood, but he’s still pitching as if he’s terrified of contact or only strikeouts will do. You can’t go 3-2 on every hitter, you can’t throw every pitch in every AB. He’s also still searching. He threw cutters last night, which he didn’t all in the start before, but the start before that they were almost half of his offerings. The last two starts have seen him try his splitter again, even though he had basically abandoned it until that point. It’s a hard watch.

-Bryant, despite his homer last night, hasn’t shown much pop since crashing into the granite that is Jason Heyward. No way he was or is concussed, I’m sure.

-I can’t stress this enough. Until a move is made, or Zobrist comes back, it’s time to just give David Bote a run in the lineup and only have one spot that Russell or Almora or CarGo can fuck up.

Onwards…

Baseball

With the return of Jon Jay, I suppose the White Sox could only have one member of the Manny Machado O’Hare Welcome Team on the roster at once now that that plan didn’t work. So they DFA’d Yonder Alonso today, who has been worth -1.1 fWAR. Funny story on that, it makes him the worst player in the majors. Just a tick below Starlin Castro, which is good for a chuckle.

It doesn’t completely end one of the stranger chapters in Sox history, though pretty close. Alonso was acquired, along with Jay signed, in the hopes that their close relationship to Machado would lure him here. The Sox then proceeded to lowball Machado, thinking companionship would make up for the rest? It was very Reinsdorf-ian, and ended up even more delicious for anarchy lovers when it was whispered that both Jay and Alonso sold Machado on how lovely it is to play in San Diego instead.

At the bottom line, the Alonso acquisition didn’t cost the Sox anything. Alex Call is hitting .229 at AA at almost 25, so that’s a nothing. Alonso didn’t block anyone until Zack Collins was ready, and now that Collins is around off he goes. Sure, he was supposed to get Jose Abreu off his feet a little more often, but it sure doesn’t look like Abreu minds all that much so far. Maybe he’ll tire in August and September, but August and September aren’t going to matter to the Sox, especially if they keep averaging a blown limb per game on someone.

Alonso was the posterchild for the launch-angle revolution, deciding he was only going to hit fly balls upon arriving in Oakland and blasting 22 homers in 100 games there before a trade to Seattle. After a year in Cleveland, they loved him so much they decided to bring Carlos Santana back, and the bat-speed at 32 no longer can deal with the velocity in the game. It’s the same story for a lot of players at that age. Alonso’s flies have dropped and the grounders have come with it, and well, when that happens this is what you get.

It opens up DH ABs for Collins when Castillo returns, assuming he doesn’t have a trade or DFA in his future as well when returning to health. It’ll also be the kind of thing you’ll barely remember happened, except for the Machado thing. Now if they could just keep everyone else on the field.

Everything Else

It’s only one report. And you can hear things differently. But The Athletic’s Scott Powers had some thoughts yesterday, and boy do they set you out to kind of ignore next season. Let’s go through them.

1. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Tuesday the Blackhawks’ offseason objective now that they’ve signed two defensemen is to find a forward or two who could help on faceoffs and the penalty kill.

No question that the Hawks penalty kill sucked, but it sucked because they didn’t have a single d-man who could play on it. Seabrook was too slow to react to anything, Keith didn’t care, Dahlstrom was overwhelmed, Slater Koekkoek has a terminal case of being Slater Koekkoek, and I don’t have to talk about Gustav Forsling anymore so I’m not going to. When Connor Murphy wasn’t out there, and he had way too much to do, it was a problem.

So fine, if you want some quick forwards to apply more pressure, that’s not a bad thing. But it can’t be all that they do. And you could probably fashion a PK out of Toews, Saad, Caggiula, Kampf, Kubalik, and Perlini (whose speed could be a real weapon on the kill if he could be taught where to be).

The whole faceoff thing…aren’t we past this? Kampf had a rough year at the dot last year but was 53% in his rookie year so we know he can do it. The Flyers, Ducks, and Red Wings were in the top ten in faceoffs last year as a team. The Caps, Islanders, Canes, and Avs were in the bottom-10. Faceoffs as a whole aren’t as important as teams still think. Individual draws are, and you’ve got enough for that. It’s not worth tossing $3M at Bellemare to win the occasional draw. Jesus Christ.

2. Powers goes on to project what the team will look like:

Saad-Toews-Sikura

Top Cat-Strome-Kane

Kubalik-Anisimov-Perlini

Caggiula-Kampf-Some Signing

That’s the same forward group that got nowhere near the playoffs last season. Why are we supposed to get excited? Where is this going?

Keith-Gustafsson

de Haan-Seabrook

Maatta-Murphy

That blue line sucks hard. Like golfball through a garden hose hard. It’s also ridiculously slow. Is it better than last year? Sure. but what kind of bar is that?

What’s really worrying is that the rumbling from more than just Powers and Stan’s actual quotes on the Score on Tuesday is that Henri Jokiharju is going to struggle to make the team out of camp. Which is a big fucking problem, because if he can’t crack this he sucks. Yeah, he only had a half season at Rockford, but if he’s all they want you to believe he is than that should be enough. Also, there’s no allowance for Boqvist blowing everyone away in camp, but I guess that’s some miracle now even though Joel Qunneville, a far more experienced coach than the mannequin currently in the position, was making noise that he wanted to keep Boqvist around last year.

Oh, and here’s the kicker:

Jokiharju is probably a better fit than a few of the defensemen listed there, but best fit likely won’t decide which defensemen are in the lineup. Contracts and experience will probably be factored in too, and that could mean Jokiharju is on the outside looking in next season.

THIS IS THE GODDAMN FUCKING HORSESHITING PROBLEM!

Contracts and experience don’t matter when it comes to figure out your lineup (I’m going to turn into Brad Pitt here, “HIS DEFENSE DOES NOT MATTER!”) This is simply the Hawks justifying keeping Seabrook in the lineup. You’re already spending that money and his experience isn’t going to help him not skate and move like he just shit out a badger in his hockey pants so quit doubling your mistake. HIS CONTRACT DOES NOT MATTER.

Anyway, the only other nugget is that the Hawks are terrified of Strome’s and Top Cat’s next contract tying their hands again. An easy solution would be to punt Artem Anisimov into any box marked, “To Timbuktu,” and open up more space. That also opens a spot for Dach to make the team.

And that’s the main problem for me now. Because even if I accept that the Hawks really do regard this as yet another rebuilding year–and please release any video or audio of them selling that to Keith, Seabrook, Toews, and Kane–then that team listed above is your base. And I’m supposed to believe that the additions of Dach and Boqvist and maybe Mitchell make it a Cup contender? Sell that one to me. It’s a playoff team. It’s a decent team. Maybe it makes some noise behind a hot Crawford. But a really good team? I don’t see it.

But it’s a process, not a plan.

Everything Else

Do you remember the time Stan Bowman signed Brandon Manning and I completely lost my goddamn ass several times about it? Well if you liked that, you’re going to love watching me pull my entrails out of my eye sockets when they sign one of the biggest, dumbest, most useless pieces of shit on ice in Corey Perry.

Just look at what the always wonderful Scott Powers wrote recently:

The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Tuesday the Blackhawks’ offseason objective now that they’ve signed two defensemen is to find a forward or two who could help on faceoffs and the penalty kill. He also reported they have not contacted Lee’s camp and were likely aligning their cap space to pay for next offseason’s deals. LeBrun did mention Corey Perry as a possibility still. –Scott Powers, The Athletic, 06-26-19

Putting aside the hilarious fact that this implies that StanBo thinks Maatta and de Haan solve the blue line problems (they don’t), that Corey Perry is even a possibility is dumbfounding. So great, now we have to dive into this fucking toilet.

Physical Stats

Height: Taller than shit should be allowed to stack; Weight: As in, “Wait! Don’t sign Corey Perry!”

Age: 34; Shot: None

On-Ice Stats (2018–19)

Team: Ducks Position: Horse’s Ass

WHO GP, FUCKING G, CARES A, AT P, ALL PIM

Corey CF%, Perry xGF%, Sucks oZS%

Why the Hawks Should Sign Him

The Hawks should sign Corey Perry if they are looking for an excuse to fire Stan Bowman immediately.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Holy shit, where do you start? Corey Perry is a 34-year-old pylon who can’t skate, can’t score, and can’t contribute in any meaningful way. They already have Brent Seabrook doing that, but at least with Seabrook, there’s the veneer of leadership and memory of three Cups that we like to think about as we await the heat death of the universe that is the end of his contract.

Perry does literally nothing anymore. Last year, he played 31 games, scored six goals, and had 10 points overall. His 47 CF% was not only bad in a vacuum but also bad relative to his team (-2.1 CF% Rel), which was the fifth-worst possession team in the NHL last year. As mentioned in our Pavelski preview, the Hawks weren’t particularly good in possession or transition last year, and Corey Perry will only make them worse.

If you think that’s bad, check this out:

Games Played CF% CF% Rel oZS%
Ryan Kesler (C) 60 44.3 -5.1 37.7
Brian Gibbons (C) 44 44.7 -3.4 53.8
Cam Fowler (D) 59 45.1 -2.6 53.0
Corey Perry (Asshole) 31 47.0 -2.1 55.2

This is the list of guys who played at least 31 games and had worse possession rates than Perry on the Ducks. Kesler’s sort of makes sense, given his evaporated hip and hilariously low offensive zone start rate. If the Hawks signed someone like Brian Gibbons, you’d likely ask, “Who?” or “Why?” And Cam Fowler can’t be bothered to give a shit. On top of everything, Perry got hammock shifts and still sucked out loud in possession. That’s some good company to be in if you want to make a run at the #1 pick.

There is no conceivable situation in which Corey Perry fits. And even if there were, Perry’s held together by a combination of tape, spit, and shit. And let’s just pretend that the Hawks manage to make the playoffs this year. Are you ready to ride the Micheal Haley Experience, wherein a shitty, no-good, non-contributor finds himself on the ice in meaningful situations? Ask Sharks fans how that fucking worked out.

Perry doesn’t even fit the definition of the type of forward StanBo said he was looking for! Holy shit! Throughout his 14-year career, Perry has taken exactly 263 faceoffs and won 75 of them. That’s a 29% win percentage. Over the past two years, Perry has averaged 1.5 seconds on the penalty kill. That’s right: One point fucking five seconds. So if the Hawks are looking for faceoff and/or PK specialists, Corey Perry is not the motherfucker you’re looking for.

You wanna talk about how he won the Hart and Richard in 2011? Fuck you, it’s 2019. You wanna talk about how he’s a four-time All Star? Fuck you, I don’t care, the last time he made the All Star Team John Scott was on it. You wanna talk about how he’d come cheap and only for a year? Fucking sign Matt McClure if that’s the logic. He plays beer league. He’s tall. He can contribute at a similar rate as 2019 Perry. We did this with Sharp, Ladd, Oduya, and others, but at least with those guys, there were warm feelings to sort of mask the poor performances. Not so with Perry, who is a relentless and useless prick.

Verdict

No. Perry has all the appeal of a puddle of sundried sperm. If Bowman signs him, he should be fired out of a cannon into the sun and stripped of all his banners and rings. If you ever wondered how Bowman could cock up a free agent signing worse than Brandon Motherfucking Manning, I present to you Corey Perry, Toilet Baby.

Everything Else

With unrestricted free agency opening in just four days, let’s get a little weird. The Hawks have allegedly begun addressing the skidmark on the salad fork that is the blue line with de Haan (fine) and Maatta (barf), which means we should probably look at who can fill out the top six on the forward front. If there’s one guy who might be that guy, it’s Joe Pavelski.

Physical Stats

Height: 5’11”; Weight: 190 lbs.

Age: 35; Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (2018–19)

Team: SHA-ARKS Position: Center/Wing

75 GP, 38 G, 26 A, 64 P, 22 PIM

54.7 CF% (0.7 CF% Rel), 56.99 xGF% (3.41 xGF% Rel), 53.3 oZS%

Why the Hawks Should Sign Him

Pavelski is an outstanding possession player who’s capable of slotting as a center or a wing. If the Hawks are going to commit to the idea that large, not-fleet-of-foot defensemen are the way to go (it isn’t), then they’re going to need forwards who can bury the puck in their opponents’ ends (PHRASING) more consistently. The Hawks were slightly below middling in the possession department last year with a 49.34 CF%, which, despite StanBo’s shameless gaslighting, isn’t great for a team with no actual top-pairing D-men. Pavelski’s career is a seminar in consistently good possession.

Pavelski also gives the Hawks DAT GREASY GOAL SCORER Stan wants. And unlike the stale beer farts that are Corey Perry or Wide Dick Arty, Pavelski still has the skating and hands to do more than simply stand in the crease. As much as we scoff at the notion of Annette Frontpresence, Pavelski is the best version of that theory, though the prospect of having to experience Eddie O’s vinegar strokes for each crease goal Pavelski pots is off-putting enough to disqualify him as an option.

His versatility is another plus. You can see him as a winger with Toews and Saad. You can see him centering DeBrincat and Kane. As a righty, you can see him just about anywhere on the PP. This versatility, combined with Pavelski’s offense and possession, would be undeniable enhancements over anything the Hawks had last year.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Cap hit and term are going to be the biggest bugaboos in considering Pavelski. He’s coming off a $6 million per contract and a 38-goal season. Thirty-eight goals are impressive per se, but the fact that he did it at 34 is even more impressive. You can see him trying to squeeze in one more decent contract, and that should give the Hawks pause with DeBrincat due for his Fuck You Pay Me contract next year.

You also need to be concerned about Pavelski’s age and brain booboo from this year’s playoff run. At 35, it becomes more and more likely that the production will fall off a cliff. Though Pavelski’s never shown signs of slowing down (excluding the 2013 season-in-a-can, Pavelski’s scored at least 20 goals a year since 2008–2009), nothing gold can stay, Ponyboy.

And for as good as Pavelski’s possession is, when he’s caught in his own zone, he tends to get buried. This might limit his versatility a bit: God forbid you find him, Top Cat, and Kane stuck in their own zone with any regularity, which is a possibility given Kane’s do-more-with-less style of possession and play.

Verdict

If you can get Pavelski on a one-to-two-year term, the Hawks should take a run at him. He solves a ton of problems, especially in the Annette Frontpresence category. He’s a proven, genuine top-six skater, which would let Beto O’Colliton slot Dominik Kubalik in the bottom six, which is probably the kind of soft landing you’d want to see him get. But if he’s looking for more than two years, it’s a little bit more tenuous. The Hawks would absolutely need to win a Cup to justify more than two years, because at that point, most of the Core would be approaching or past the twilight of their careers.

All of this assumes that Pavelski even wants to leave San Jose. For as good as he’d look in red, black, and white, it’s hard to picture him in anything but teal.

Baseball

Game 1: White Sox 5 – Red Sox 6

Game 2: White Sox 3 – Red Sox 6

Game 3: White Sox 8 – Red Sox 7

 

I had a good portion of this recap typed up and ready to go after Alex Colome blew the save in the 8th inning today, little did I know that Jose Abreu still had one in the chamber to save the day with a blast over the green monster.  That dinger salvaged what was shaping up to be a disastrous 3 game stint against the BoSox.  Up until that point, the bullpen was burning through goodwill like it was an open methane pipeline on the side of a landfill.  In addition to that, it looks like Tim Anderson is going to be on the shelf for a good amount of time after a high ankle sprain Tuesday night.  Hopefully you weren’t on Twitter, because a phalanx of trolls came oozing out of the sewers to proclaim that Timmy is getting what he deserves for daring to have fun playing baseball.  Oh, and Moncada got drilled on the knee by Sale and left the game too.  Things don’t get any easier this weekend with a series against the Twonkies looming.

 

To the bullets:

Numbers Don’t Lie

-So the bullpen seems to have reverted to being shitty again.  The White Sox had leads in every one of these games, and in every instance the pen coughed it up.  Ruiz, Marshall and Minaya were particularly heinous this series, giving up 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings between the 3 of them.  Fry and Colome were unable to keep the BoSox at bay in the 8th inning today, getting beat by themselves and a boneheaded play by Jose Rondon, who was filling in for Moncada at 3rd.  On the plus side, Carson Fulmer looked more than serviceable Tuesday night working solidly through the first two innings of the bullpen game, striking out 3.  Hopefully this is just a blip on the radar before the pen settles back down to the more efficient version that had been showing up before.

-The defense was pretty abysmal as well.  The aforementioned blunder by Rondon, who decided to try and come home to peg Eduardo Nunez (who was halfway to the dugout by the time the ball got to McCann) on a ground ball instead of taking the easy out at first.  Tim Anderson in game 1 trying for the cross body throw instead of going to 3rd to try and save the game except Moncada really wasn’t covering the bag so whatever.  Speaking of not covering, Reynaldo Lopez threw one in the dirt that McCann had trouble with so instead of covering home like a big boy he got mad at himself and hung his head while Devers motored home uncontested.  Not a good look all around.

-The hitting, however, looked very good all series.  Realistically if you score 16 runs in a 3 game series you should probably end up with more than one win, but see the section above about the bullpen.

-Losing Tim Anderson hurts.  Just when it seemed like we had finally gotten rid of Cordell in the starting lineup with the arrival of Jon Jay, this forces Leury to SS for the foreseeable future, bringing Cordell back into the CF picture.  Things get even ickier if Yoan is forced to miss any time from his kneecap getting zapped by Sale today.  Maybe this means the return of Palkamania, but with Collins already up and not playing because of Alonso reasons I can’t see that being much help.

-Speaking of that scenario, why in the frozen fuck do you bring up Collins and then sit him for the gigantic waste of space Yonder Alonso?  Just DFA him already, his OPS is less than Nick Madrigal’s batting average in AA.

-Favorite Son Lucas Giolito looked better this time around than he did against the Cubs.  He was definitely getting squeezed by home plate ump Bill Welke, who’s zone was only slightly better than the one in Giolito’s previous start.  He seemed to be overthrowing his fastball, resulting in a definite loss of the zone at times and netting him 4 walks on the evening to go with 7 Ks.  He mentioned his body flying open during this start, which was a concern for him all last season.  Hopefully McCann and him can come up with a solution quickly, as the Twins aren’t going to give him much of a break.

-Speaking of the Twins series, the Sox have a “TBA” starter listed for Friday night’s game.  While I’d love to see Dylan Cease show up and mow down some Twins, I can’t see the Sox making this his first MLB start after his last few subpar outings in Charlotte.  More likely than not we are looking at another bullpen game, which is not even a coinflip the way some of them are throwing right now.  If they DO have a pen game on Friday night, I’d like to see Fulmer get more than 2 innings this time around.  It’s not like he’s close to being the worst starter they’ve thrown out there the past few weeks.

Onward…

Everything Else

I suppose, and hope, one day that Roberto Luongo will become something of a case-study, if not a union martyr, of a player who becomes demonized simply because he accepted a contract that was offered to him. How evil.

Luongo retired today, and there will be some in Vancouver angry at him for not doing the LTIR limbo to save them from the cap-recapture penalty. Which is just the dumbest rule in hockey, if not sports, but then the dumbest rule in sports probably should exist in hockey. It’s definitely something the players’ union should come after in the next CBA negotiations, but probably won’t after their satisfied that they’ll get to go play in an Olympics no one will watch from Beijing and everyone will forget happened like three weeks after. It is their ball of yarn.

And it would be easy to just say, “Well the Canucks are at fault for offering him that,” (and fun, too) but they did it under a different CBA and all they were doing was locking down a team linchpin at the time. It’s a long time ago now, but Luongo signed that deal before the 2009-2010 season, when he was coming off a .920 season with the Canucks and was only 30 years old.

Luongo is lucky in some ways that that contract won’t be the only thing talked about as far as his legacy. He’s unlucky in that anything else that comes with it probably won’t shine all that bright.

It’s hard to discuss Luongo without discussing the playoff flameouts. There’s no way to coat the seven surrendered in Game 6 in ’09, or the 16 he gave up in the three games in Vancouver in ’10, or the .738 SV% in Boston in ’11. These are the facts of the case. But unlike anyone else on that team, Bob never really hid from it, and never tried to lower how much it hurt him that he didn’t come up big in the team’s biggest moments. And he could have used any of the Sedins no disappearing when it mattered, or the Canucks not having an actual top pairing d-man at any time. or Kesler’s body falling apart. You couldn’t find any of those guys when the questions came. Thing 1 or 2, or Kesler, or Bieksa, or Edler all were never heard from in a postgame dressing room. But Bob was always in front of a microphone.

It was that upfront, honest nature that eventually turned most’s opinion on him. A clear sense of humor on social media certainly didn’t hurt. It was bullshit that in the midst of the Vancouver meltdown, he had to tell the press his contract “sucked.” It didn’t suck. He earned that. And his departure from the city and team that no longer wanted him and where he didn’t enjoy playing was delayed merely because he’d played well enough to earn that deal before.

Perhaps there will be no bigger example of a player who was only viewed on his contract than Luongo. He’ll retire with the 10th best all-time SV%, which means he walks with giants. He’ll probably end up being a Hall of Famer, but in reality he should be in the Hall Of Very Good. Never won a Vezina, won only a Jennings, though did finish 2nd in the Hart Trophy once. He’s got a couple gold medals, one as a starter, so that’s something (though I would argue he wasn’t terribly great in 2010 but having a defense consisting of five eventual Norris winners certainly helps).

Perhaps now that contract won’t come into any discussion of Luongo’s career. Those playoff performances will, and that’s fair. Though I’d like to point out he’ll retire with a better playoff SV% than Pekka Rinne, yet nothing ever seems to be Rinne’s fault when it goes balls-up for the Preds. But ha, nothing ever bad happens in Nashville and everyone there is just so wonderful and perfect, don’t you know?

He certainly provided us with more than enough material. He was always an entertaining watch in whatever capacity. And that sort of honesty and personality should be something every player feels free to show but never does. The NHL will miss him, though I doubt it’ll realize it.