Football

Week #16 – Chiefs 26, Bears 3: Thud

By Sam Fels 1424 0

That about sums it up.

I’ve said it before, but just to reiterate, I’m hardly a football expert. Just a Bears fan who’s as frustrated and disappointed as you are. Tonight was ugly, as ugly as it’s been, because other than the Saints game the Bears have been in every one and just missed here and there to lose. This was being outclassed, which hurts as a fan more than anything.

What makes it far worse is the lazy-ass narratives that come out of it. Yeah, we know Mahomes was taken 10th and Trubisky 2nd. This is such an easy branch to reach for when someone wants to sound right and profound. It’s over now. And it’s not fair to use that to judge Trubisky. To judge Ryan Pace? Absolutely, and it will almost certainly be his defining moment, probably for worse. But you have to keep those separate.

That doesn’t mean Mitch should be absolved. He was bad tonight, but so was everything. The gameplan sucked. So did the o-line. The defense was kind of helpless. We could do this all day. And those things have happened far too often this season.

I know everything now has recency bias, especially in the NFL where things change so much from year to year. But we’re still only 12 months removed from probably the most fun Bears team of our lifetimes (depending on how old you are). No one wanted anybody fired or cut then. It can’t be completely negated. Now, other than Allen Robinson no one has taken a step forward, and that team is basically still here. Is that on Pace? Maybe, maybe that’s everyone’s ceiling. Or is that on Nagy? Combination thereof?

If the Bears lose next week, their two-year record will be 19-13. That hardly seems like a fireable record. Remember, this team punted Lovie Smith after a three-year stretch of 29-19, and that sent them on a five-year spin-cycle of idiocy. You have to be careful on these things.

Also some history. Remember that John Fox was forced on Ryan Pace after he was hired, and he had to tailor a team to that idiot. That doesn’t mean those three years should be completely erased from the records or the evaluation, but weighted less heavily than you might normally. Again, when he’s had the run of the place, 19-13. And to repeat myself, that only means that next year is the make-or-break for everyone.

As I’ve said, the ship of Mitch being great has sailed. But I don’t see that we have to give up on good, though it seems a readily available thing to reach for right now. He missed Allen Robinson on a deep throw that could have started this game on a different note. And it’s another in the category of throws the Bears had to have, as I’ve catalogued. Hit those five throws, and the Bears probably have 10 wins right now. At least nine for sure. And if Mitch is never going to be that guy who hits those throws, and he might never be, well then it’s time to move on.

But fuck, Josh Allen is a playoff QB. So’s Kirk Cousins. So’s Carson Wentz. A year ago, you wouldn’t have swapped any of them in here. All that means is everyone gets one more spin. Matt Nagy isn’t solely responsible for the mess that Mitch is now, but he’s got a hand. A big one. Can he accent what Mitch does well next year? Is there anything? We’ll find out, because there aren’t many other options. You want to ride on the Andy Dalton merry-go-round? That’ll land you with y0ur dick in the dirt as well.

It sucks, because that team last year was so much fun and this one has been such a goddamn drag and you can’t remove the emotion out of it when it comes to the Bears. Especially when they’ve pretty much been a calamity for most of our lives. It’s beyond old at this point.

But we can do better than lazy. At least we’re going to try.

Baseball

Dallas Buyers Club

By Andy Jonathan 1892 0

Hey, look! Some of the money got spent!

Honestly, I cant tell you how surprised I was to open up my twitter app last night during the 49ers game and see the following come across my feed:

At first I had to double check it wasn’t some asshole’s parody account (though the Bruce Levine one is pretty damn funny), and when it began showing up on MLBTR along with other beat writers it seemed the Sox had actually signed him. So now what?

Dallas Keuchel is not the same pitcher he was four years ago when he won the Cy Young for the AL with the eventual World Series winning Houston Astros. He is, however, an expert sinkerballer and a guy who generates ground balls at an astounding rate. Keuchel’s career average for GB% hovers just a tick under 60% (59.2% to be exact), which is second only to Marcus Stroman in the league for the last five years.

This is a very good thing, as The Down Arrow is not exactly a pitcher friendly park. Having an innings-eater who gets hitters to pound the ball into the dirt is a very handy thing for the Sox to have. With both Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito living life at the top of the strike zone, someone like Keuchel will go a long way to preventing Luis Robert’s hamstrings from flaming into dust his rookie season. It’s also gonna mean a lot more work for Tim Anderson, so here’s hoping he’s been working on his AL-worst fielding percentage this winter.

In addition to all the ground balls, Keuchel has thrown more than 150 innings (not including last year’s shortened season due to not having a contract until June) in all but one of his seasons, so durability is not an issue for the guy. Having a quality pitch framer for him last season in Tyler Flowers (skypoint) helped him bring his K/9 back up above seven for the first time in four years, so Yasmani Grandal should be able to continue that trend.

To top that off, he has a career ERA+ average of 110, which for comparison we turn to this tweet from @MrDelicious13:

https://twitter.com/MrDelicious13/status/1207999683861327878?s=20

 

With the last two signings, Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez (at least statistically speaking) immediately become the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers on the Sox rotation. It also means the days of seeing Ross Detwiler and Dylan Covey serve up plates of meatballs to opposing hitters are dead and buried. For the first time in what feels like eons the Sox will have major league quality starters at the 1-5 spots in their rotation. Granted Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez are still unknown quantities at this point, but they’ve both shown flashes of dominance thus far in their careers and (at least in Cease’s case) are still valued members of The Future™.

This also creates a glut of potential starters for the Sox going forward, as the impending returns of Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon from Tommy John surgery creates a scenario where the team has the flexibility to make some trades for a proven bat provided everyone stays (or comes back) healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Hahn uses this as a reason to start Kopech in the minors as a way of both building up his arm strength and recapturing a year of service time. I’m assuming the Sox opening day rotation looks something like this:

  1. Lucas Giolito
  2. Dallas Keuchel
  3. Dylan Cease
  4. Gio Gonzalez
  5. Reynaldo Lopez

 

Finally I can look at the 4th and 5th starter spots and not feel like someone just scrubbed my eyes with a urinal puck. What a great feeling, lets keep it up!

In other interesting news, Dallas Keuchel is repped by none other than Jerry Reinsdorf’s arch nemesis Scott Boras. This explodes the narrative that the Sox were never interested in doing business with Boras clients, or at the bare minimum presents a new path forward for the Sox front office in the way they pursue free agents in the off-season. It also inches the Sox payroll close to the $100 million mark, with Keuchel’s contract for three years, $55 million (for an AAV of about 18 mil per). It also has a vesting option for a 4th year if he hits innings pitched numbers in the 2nd and 3rd year of the contract. With Keuchel turning 32 before the season starts that puts him at 36 in the 4th year of the deal which might look a little iffy but fuck it, it’s not my money.

So the Sox still need another bat (unless you’re totally wowed by Cheslor Cuthbert, and if you are I’d like to congratulate you on surviving this long with head trauma) and most likely another bullpen arm (Hello Dellin Betances!), but even if none of those things come to pass we can finally say the Sox have had a successful off-season. It doesn’t quite wash away the disappointment of losing the MannyDerby last season, or make me forget that Odrisamer Despaigne and Yonder Alonso were things last year, but it goes a long way towards making me hopeful that this rebuild is not going to stretch on ad infinitum.

Good work, Hahn and co. Now don’t jerk around with Luis Robert’s service time, because I’ve seen enough of Adam Engel starting in CF to last a lifetime.

Hockey

Game #37 – Hawks 5, Avs 3: Ain’t It Fun?

By Sam Fels 1955 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Your delayed recap! And it’s for a win! And a fun one! Let’s not wait around, shall we?

The Two Obs

-There’s been a tenet around here for the entire time we’ve been doing this. Which makes it mesmerizing, and a little sobering, that it’s still true after all these years. But…when Duncan Keith is good, the Hawks are good. It’s really been that simple. Toews and Kane steal the headlines, which Keith is only too pleased to let them do, and they certainly are a large part of it. But no player has been a bigger barometer to the Hawks’ fortunes, nor more responsible. He can’t do it every game at 36, and that’s not on him that the Hawks haven’t found another solution. But on the nights he can, the Hawks actually look like a representative team.

Keith was everywhere last night, in a good way, in the way that it used to be. And he did it nursing along Adam Boqvist (more on him in a sec) and behind this still very fractured lineup. He didn’t end up on the scoresheet, but his influence would have been hard to miss. It even included kicking off the Hawks’ “hit or die” attitude on the night. The broadcast wanted you to think it was Gilbert’s fight. No, it was Keith laying Donskoi on his ass that everyone followed. It’s not a huge part of his game, but sometimes you forget that Keith is still about as sturdy as a fire hydrant and has that in his locker when needed.

We haven’t seen this Keith much over the past couple seasons, Some of it is age, some of it is thinking the coach is a moron and the team is headed in the wrong direction. He still thinks the coach is an idiot, and the team is still headed in the wrong direction, and he’s still old, but maybe through just professional pride or wanting to help the young players or whatever, we’re seeing this Keith more often. We should enjoy it. How much longer will it be around?

-The other tenet is “names on the sheet.” When the scoresheet has a lot of Kane and Toews on it (used to be Hossa and Sharp too, and the hope is Top Cat and Dach Holiday will take that role soon), the Hawks win. This is pretty simple stuff of course, as every team needs their best players to be their best players. The Hawks need it now especially, as they don’t have the cast of thousands to chip in. Toews wasn’t possessionally (it’s now a word fuck you) dominant, but got the goal that got the Hawks back in it and then kicked off the plays for their second and winning goals. Kane did Kane stuff.

Toews is also on a point-per-game pace his last 25, after that initial worry.

-The season still remains about what Dach and Boqvist become. It’s unfortunate for Dach that the only thing we really have to compare him to developmentally is Toews, because he’s the last center the Hawks took this high in the draft. Toews had a year of college before showing up, which probably makes a bigger difference than we think. At least as a freshman, you’re playing against other players your age or above. Dach wouldn’t have got that in Saskatoon, so he’s here. So there’s a higher learning curve, as he figures out what works now and what will work later.

You got a glimpse last night, as not only was Dach making things happen he was also not afraid to power through physically. As Fifth Feather pointed out on the podcast, we don’t know what Dach will be physically, because he’s got 20-25 pounds of muscle to put on yet. Which is kind of scary for everyone else.

Dach was put behind the eight-ball lately a bit, saddles with Zack Smith and Matthew Highmore or the like. Not only are they unskilled, they’re slow. So Dach could charge through the neutral zone and look around and see the world has abandoned him. With DeBrincat and a mobile space-opener in Carpenter, he’s got options to play off of. His goal showed off his hands and reach, because that was hardly an easy pass to catch and a chance to finish.

-To Boqvist. It feels, so far and there’s such a long way to go, that the Hawks are going about developing him the opposite way of how they should. Instead of just letting him be Adam Boqvist and figuring out where to shave off, they’re stripping him down and figuring out where to be Adam Boqvist. Compare that to how Duncan Keith came up. The stakes weren’t as high of course, and he had a full season in the AHL. But one thing you could say about Trent Yawney and Denis Savard is they let Keith be Keith and run around everywhere like he’d gotten into the pixie sticks. And then in time he figured out how to mold that into an NHL game.

Boqvist seems to want to move the puck along as quickly as possible, even if it isn’t to anyone. He is tentative to skate with it in his own zone. When the Hawks were trailing in the 3rd and they had to let him off the leash, you got a couple views of what he can do. Not only does he pinch but he’s so quick he’s getting to the puck at the circle instead of at the line, which gives him space to make a play. But he shouldn’t be trying to be Connor Murphy the rest of the time, and trying to spot when to be Adam Boqvist. It should be the opposite.

-The Hawks were intent on finishing checks last night, which is a good way to keep a much-faster team from getting away from you, especially if they’re not totally locked in. And without Makar, the Avs don’t really have another d-man to start transition so putting them all under pressure is going to cause turnovers and mistakes. I don’t know if the Hawks can play this way all the time, but it wouldn’t hurt to try.

-We occasionally get people asking us why we still do this, because our writing has gotten morose and despondent at times lately. And I understand the question, because it can seem like we’re not enjoying ourselves at all. I shouldn’t speak for everyone else here, but games like last night are why I’m still here. Because it’s still fun when they win a game like that. It’s still fun to watch Toews force his way into chances because he feels like it, or Keith to be an ice-wide blanket, or Kane to conjure something out of nothing or making a finish look that simple. It’s fun to get a vision of what Dach can do and might be one day. It’s fun to watch Connor Murphy drag Gustafsson by the dick into competence. We hope that we see more of it of course, and it’s that hope that keeps me around, I guess.

Onwards…

Hockey

Game #37 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Spotlight: A Guy With A Nazem Problem

By Sam Fels 1220 0

From Wednesday…

When trading for Nazem Kadri, the Avalanche knew they were taking on some risk. While Kadri had been a dutiful soldier in Toronto and did a lot of the dirty work that Auston Matthews or John Tavares wouldn’t be concerned with, there is always the chance that Kadri goes off the deep end and gets himself suspended at crucial times. Kadri has been suspended five times in the past six years by the league, and fined or sent him by his own team a few times as well. The risk seemed worth it though, because A. Kadri is one of the more dynamic two-way centers in the league and B. perhaps being out of the pressure-cooker of Toronto which frays just about everyone’s nerves would calm him down a bit.

The latter we won’t find out about truly until the playoffs. The former is the problem, because Kadri hasn’t been what he was in Toronto so far with the Avs.

Kadri has 22 points in 30 games, which is certainly more than enough. It puts him on pace to match or even exceed his career high of 61 points, set three seasons ago. And that’s what the Avs do, get up the ice ASAP and fill the net.

But you’re supposed to get a possession-driving checking center with Kadri as well, and the Avs haven’t seen that yet. Kadri is carrying by far the worst relative numbers of his career. Kadri was continually above the team-rate in T.O. and with far worse zone starts. He’s -9.2 in his xG%, and -4.0 in his Corsi percentage. Both would be nearly double the worst marks of his career in Toronto. And the weird thing is, Kadri is starting more shifts in the offensive zone than ever before. So why is he backing up all the time?

Is it teammates? Hard to say. Kadri has spent most of this time this season with Joonas Donskoi and Andre Burakovsky. Donskoi is certainly no moron when it comes to the defensive side of the puck, Burakovsky can be a little more flaky. But there are certainly worse combinations. And that isn’t really that much worse than Leo Komarov and Patrick Marleau, whom Kadri spent most of his time with the past three years in Toronto.

Maybe it was Babcock’s more conservative system that kept him buffeted, where in Colorado you have a fair number of yahoos (in a good way) on the back end. Toronto certainly had no less speed and skill than Colorado does, but the criticism of Babcock (among others) was that he rarely unleashed it. Jared Bednar certainly does, and maybe Kadri is just finding his way in a more open spaces.

And maybe the Avs don’t care. They have Pierre-Edouard Bellmare to take the true dungeon shifts, with Colin Wilson and Tyson Jost doing some of that work as well. Maybe the Avs just need a straight-up #2 center. At the end of the day, the Avs are outscoring their opponents 22-15 at evens with Kadri on the ice, whatever the possession numbers are. For now, that’s probably enough.

Still, the Avs will be holding their breath come April. The Avs don’t have a blood feud with anyone like they do with the Leafs did with the Bruins, so Kadri’s blood won’t be boiling yet. Especially as all the Leafs heard about last year during the season was how they couldn’t beat the Bruins (and they didn’t). Still, put Kadri in the middle of the cauldron of an extended series, against someone annoying like the Flames or Blues, and you wonder if he can keep in check for the first time.

 

Hockey

Game #37 – Hawks vs. Avalanche: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, And Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1221 0

Samuel Girard – The Avs have had a tradition of dirty shits since their inception, begun with founding father Claude Lemieux. Forsberg was dirtier than he got credit for. Ian Laperrierre carried the torch for a bit, there was dunderhead Cody McLeod for far too long, and then of course their coach picked up the slack in Patrick Roy there for a minute. So it’s somewhat comforting to know this hasn’t died as Girard seems desperate to be the next one. Maybe he was pissed he didn’t actually win a fight against pint-sized Alex DeBrincat, but his hit on same last Wednesday was cheap, late, and dirty and while this thing is usually stupid we’ll admit to some bloodlust tonight. It was also cowardly, as not only is DeBrincat much smaller and the play was over, but he was off balance and streaking towards the boards. The Hawks are lucky it wasn’t much worse. That’s taking the low road to look tough, which is an Avalanche tradition.

Nikita Zadorov – He only didn’t do the same thing as Girard because he didn’t think of it first. But totally capable.

Hockey

Game #37 – Hawks at Avalanche – Mile High Yule Log

By Matt McClure 1281 0

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Game Time: 8:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago+, WGN-AM 720
Alpenglow Botanicals: Mile High Hockey

For the second time in a month, the Hawks and Avalanche will be playing one another for the second time in a week. And for the second time in a month, the Hawks will be looking to avoid getting blanked in earning any kind of points in the standings whatsoever. Maybe this time it will be different.

Hockey

Game #37 – Hawks vs. Avalanche: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1143 0

Hawks

Notes: Unlikely this Seabrook thing will go a third straight night, unless he’s still “hurt.” So he’ll likely come back in, most likely for Gilbert but don’t be shocked if it’s Boqvist or even Maatta…Sikura will draw back in thanks to Saad’s injury, and he played with well Toews last year. It would also leave the other lines untouched just as they found some success on Thursday. But he could go to the fourth line with Kampf or Highmore moving up in the lineup, which won’t make any goddamn sense…

Notes: The Avs reunited their super powered line on Thursday, though it only got them one goal. Main danger tonight, clearly…Erik Johnson returned on Thursday as well, though didn’t play all that much so we’ll see if he needs to go back on the shelf…the Hawks got to see the Avs backup on Wednesday but they’re unlikely to do so again…We’ve got Zadorov listed but he will be a healthy scratch tonight for Barbeiro or the like…