Hockey

Game #64 – Hawks vs. Lightning Spotlight: You Go Your Way And I’ll Go Mine

By Sam Fels 1318 0

Once again, this tine of year has turned into a philosophical study of how the Hawks got here, where they’re going, and whether or not any of it is correct or possible. It’s not what you’d ideally be discussing at this time of year, but when your front office’s only ploy to fix things is turning the team off and then on again, this is where you end up.

The Hawks claim that they’ve been forced into this position for a third straight year not because they made any mistakes, because no one makes mistakes over there don’t you know, but because this is just the price you pay for the success they had. We’re sure the Penguins or Bruins would like a word, but we have the Lightning to deal with at the moment. And keep in mind, the Lightning have done with with two different GMs but a constant vision and direction. How nice that must be.

The Bolts don’t have the long track record that the Hawks do in the past, but they were at the same point in 2015 and separated by barely the width of a sheet of paper. Now a direct comparison isn’t totally fair, as the core of that Lightning team was younger than that of the Hawks. Still, with how Toews and Kane have played the past couple years, and Keith this one, they aren’t seprated by light years either.

The Lightning have the top of the draft picks just like the Hawks do, in Hedman and Stamkos. They also had Jonathan Drouin, #3 overall. But from there, the Lightning have just done so much more with later round picks than the Hawks, or indeed most teams. Brayden Point was found in the third round. So was Anthony Cirelli. Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde weren’t even drafted. And that was eight and six years ago now, but the Hawks added literally no one who’s contributing to this team now between 2008 and 2016. You can’t have that gap. You have to have a middle generation to go with your standards and your young kids. The Hawks missed that, which is why they’re paying the price. There’s nothing between the Keith and Toews generation and the DeBrincat one, aside from maybe Brandon Saad and that came at the cost of Artemi Panarin.

And since the Lightning took Drouin 3rd overall, they’ve never picked above 19th. In that time they’ve added Point, Cirelli, and Mathieu Joseph. They also added Brett Howden, who they spun into Ryan McDonagh (your value of that may vary) and J.T. Miller, which was then spun into another first round pick that got them Blake Coleman this past deadline. No matter where it turns, it’s something they can use.

The Lightning have been better at trades as well. They weren’t going to re-sign Ben Bishop, so they got Erik Cernak out of it. Compare that with the Gustafsson or Lehner return. When Drouin wasn’t working, they turned that into Sergachev. They realized that Kevin Shattenkirk would work in a limited role. We can go on here.

Compare that with the Hawks who only have Dominik Kubalik in the past three years as a definite win as a trade, and maybe Dylan Strome but it’s hard to say that for sure right now. Their free agents or guys they took a flier on…well, we don’t need to go on about that because you’re probably going to want to eat in the next few days. There are guys out there that could have filled a role that the Lightning identify and the Hawks pass on. That’s how you end up with Nick Seeler.

The Hawks have used the excuse of their late draft positions or cap problems to try and hide their failings. But the Lightning, or the Bruins, or the Penguins, have faced all these obstacles the last five seasons and keep ending up at the top of the standings. It’s not about the obstacles. It’s about how you get around them. And if you’re blaming the obstacles, that tells you everything you need to know about your skills.

It’s quite simply, not good enough.

Hockey

Game #64 – Hawks vs. Lightning: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1060 0

A Bogosian-Coburn Pairing – We laud the Lightning for their ability to produce players and their forward-thinking ways in how to deploy them, but man do they love a lumbering, dumbass d-man. Especially if they’re old. Why a team this fast up front and with speed in the back as well would want to roadblock themselves by installing a couple of walking potholes on their second pairing is beyond us, and you could see where it might be a major problem against any of Boston, Toronto, Carolina, Washington or Pittsburgh down the road.

Cedric Pacquette – Still snorting the headlines from after Game 3 in 2015 about how he’s the ultimate pest and shutdown guy, even if he spent the next three games getting his ass kicked from pillar to post.

Pat Maroon – This guy very well could end up with two Cups in a row and forever wear a label of THE glue guy, and we’re fairly sure he couldn’t avoid a dying sloth.

Hockey

Game #64 – Hawks vs. Lightning: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1024 0

Hawks

Notes: We assume this Seeler shit is over because Colliton went on at length at practice about the rest of the season being about the young players, and Carlsson counts in that. But nothing surprises us anymore…Boqvist returned to playing with Keith in St. Louis, as even Colliton couldn’t stomach Koekkoek being there anymore….which didn’t stop Maatta from having a terrible game, but again, nothing surprises us anymore…

Lightning

Notes: Could be a bit of a mash unit tonight for the Bolts. Coleman’s wife is having a baby so he might not play. Maroon is listed but he won’t, and Stamkos left their last game early and is out as well. They will probably dress seven d-men, as they have nine on the roster…which doesn’t mean they lack firepower, as Kucherov is only on a 17-game point-streak at the moment…Or Point who just had a 12-gamer end…

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: Bote Bote Bote…Bote!

By Sam Fels 1477 0

When you absolutely have to have a Cub do a kind of adorable yet still annoying gender reveal, David Bote is your man. And he might be the man for the Cubs at second and occasionally third and short, because there’s always a chance that Nico Hoerner stalls out in Iowa and there’s a much bigger chance that Jason Kipnis and Daniel Descalso are still dead. And while he causes more teeth-gnashing amongst Cubs fans for someone who came from basically nowhere and has been fine, if the Cubs had to turn to him it really wouldn’t be the end of the world. And then there are too many who mistake one ultra-dramatic home run for career-long success. There’s so much noise around a bit-part player. Let’s study the star man.

David Bote 2019

127 games, 356 PA

.257/.362/.422

.336 wOBA, 106 wRC+

12.4 BB%  26.1 K%

-1.4 Defensive Runs

1.5 fWAR

Bote had a pretty weird year last term. For one, he was a righty who couldn’t hit lefties, which doesn’t make any goddamn sense but it’s what we’re dealing with. Against right-handed pitchers he had a 115 wRC+, and against southpaws it was 80. Which was the complete opposite of what he did in 2018. So hey, if he could split the difference!. Also, he really started to hit after Joe Maddon had moved him out of the everyday lineup in the second half. And Maddon stopped playing him against lefties in the second half, giving him only 30 ABs against them. Which he did crush, but it’s only 30 ABs so who knows?

It wasn’t hard to figure out where to attack Bote though, as he couldn’t get to high fastballs nor lay off curves in the dirt, which doesn’t make for a very good combination.

Bote graded out as fine at second, though hardly superlative. But as the Brewers proved with the old-dog mobility of Mike Moustakas, you can kind of cover that up with shifts if you’re so inclined. The Cubs didn’t shift as much because Baez covered half the Earth anyway, but it might be something they try. Bote also graded out higher than you’d expect at short when Maddon finally figured out that Baez was dying of exhaustion, which might be something to consider if Hoerner isn’t up for a while.

YES! YES! YES!: For Bote to be more than just scenery, or slightly above scenery, he’s going to have to figure out how to hit a pitch above his waist. We know he has serious power low in the strike zone, and it’s something of a mystery why pitchers keep throwing him pitches there. But even just up in the zone, not above it, and Bote has been pretty much helpless. His desire to catch up to pitches there has made him susceptible to curves that tease being there and then gleefully dive for the sanctuary of his toes and his whiffs. If that continues to be a gaping hole, then this is his limit. If he shortens his swing a bit and can get there, than his plus-on base skills play even better.

And fuck, if you take simply his .362 OBP last year, put it in the nine-spot ahead of Bryant in the leadoff spot, he’ll score a fair amount of runs you’d have to believe. Really, you could do a whole lot worse as a placeholder for Hoerner, however long that might be.

You’re A B+ Player: Bote can’t close up that hole at the top of the zone, pitchers actually read a scouting report every time and his already too-high K-rate for a supporting cast member goes up. And he loses walks, which is what’s keeping him above water overall. Hoerner never claims the second base spot, and we’re left watching two corpses try and ooze their way toward competence between Kipnis and Descalso and Ross has to euthanize them in the 6th inning of some game in July behind a big blue curtain (assuredly sponsored by Sloan). At 27 when the season starts, it’s hard to picture how Bote improves that much but there is some room. He also watches his glove deteriorate and can’t even claim breaking even in the field.

But no matter what, he’ll be part of the Cubs pregame highlight reel for the next five years.

Dragon Or Fickle?: I’m higher on Bote than most, mostly because of the walks and the passable glove and occasional power. I don’t think he’ll completely split his ’18 and ’19 and be useful against both handed pitchers, but I also think there’s a decent chance he’s not an abortion against either as well. If he can just take high pitches the other way for singles enough to not have to see curveballs or get fastballs lower, he could end up being a real weapon. He’s clearly a player you don’t want to be in the lineup every day, but you’d rather see him than Descalso or Kipnis. If Hoerner can claim what’s rightfully his relatively quickly, then having Bote cycle in at a couple spots two or three times a week is ideal. And that’s probably what you’ll get.

Baseball

New World Order: 2020 White Sox Player Previews – Jose Abreu

By Andy Jonathan 1689 0

Moving along the diamond we come to the deepest position for the Sox infield, 1st base. It also contains the most tenured and respected player on the team, Jose Abreu. Nestled into the middle of the Sox “Sold B+” off-season was a 3 year extension for Jose. While the contract itself was a source of consternation for the Sox Faithful during the winter months, ultimately it’s now up to Jose to prove he deserved that paper and try to build off a season which was both successful (Led the AL in RBIs!) and not (highest K rate and lowest BB of his career). Let’s see what we can see, shall we?

 

2019 Stats

.284/.330/.503

33 HR 123 RBI

5.2 BB% 21.9 K%

.344 wOBA 117 wRC+ .833 OPS

Outs Above Average: -3

2019 Player Review

 

Last Week on Nitro: 2019 was somewhat of a mixed bag for Jose Abreu, as mentioned above. His power numbers were some of the best that he’s had since he broke into the league in 2014. The 33 home runs is his second highest mark, and the 123 RBIs blew away his previous high of 107. These are all (obviously) very good things, and what you’d expect out of someone of Jose’s size and position on the diamond. What wasn’t so great was the leap in his K rate and the precipitous dip in his BB rate. Jose was always known for his above average eye at the plate, and yet last season showed him chasing more down and away off-speed stuff. His OBP, while higher than 2018, was still a good .020 lower than his usual sterling .350 mark. The rest of his stats, including his hard hit and line drive rates were in line with his career norms. His BABIP was where you’d expect it to be as well.

Jose was also his usual stalwart self, hardly missing any time due to injury which has been a hallmark of his every season except 2018 (which we shall forget ever happened). So what to make of it all? Is this the new Abreu, primed for power and not worried that right field even exists? Or is it an outlier of sorts, and he will return to his “spray to all fields with pop” ways in 2020?

 

TOO SWEET (WHOOP WHOOP): While Jose is progressing in age, it’s by no means a death knell for his production. One only needs to look North to Nelson Cruz or even right here on the Sox with Edwin Encarnacion (who I’ll talk about tomorrow) to show that given the right scenario, those guys can not only be productive but key pieces of a baseball team that has deigns on more than just a winning record. Shit, by the time the season gets under way Abreu will be 6 years younger than Cruz, which seems to punch holes in the theory that the regression monster is destined to consume him.

The best case scenario for Jose this summer is the continued development of Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez. If the three of them are able to provide Jose some cover in the lineup, I could see him coming close to the power numbers he put up last year. Having Edwin Encarnacion  and Yasmani Grandal in the lineup could allow Abreu to hit comfortably in the #5 or 6 spot in the lineup, keeping his RBI opportunities plentiful but no longer forcing him to be THE MAN. If everything swings his way this year, I could see Jose having the kind of season that makes folks forget about the Sox overpaying him back in December. Turning back the clock to 2013 with a .290/.345/.500 kind of line with 120 RBIs is well within reach with proper placement in the lineup by Ricky and Jose’s continued good health.

On the other side of the ball, if Tim Anderson lived up to his promise and his D improves this winter, it will go a long way for Jose’s defensive numbers. Jose not having to chase shitty throws to the dugout or scoop shit outta the dirt like cat litter would be a nice change of pace for him. He’s never going to be Albert Pujols in his prime at 1B, but he’s not a sinkhole over there either. Add in the fact that Encarnacion, Grandal and even James McCann will be able to spell him at 1B will only help in the long run keeping Jose viable.

 

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: The flip side of the mega-positive coin is instead of having 2019 Nelson Cruz as a comp, you end up with 2019 Miguel Cabrera. While Miggy was still a decently productive player in 2019 (.282/.346/.398), he was a slightly below average league player (-0.3 WAR), which for a guy with a contract that has a $31 million dollar AAV is nightmare fuel for fans of a team with an owner like Jerry Reinsdorf.

Miggy had a terrible time staying healthy over the past few years, and really his contract is the only thing keeping him on the field at this point. I’ve always been a big fan of Cabrera and his shenanigans on the field, but for a team like the White Sox who are poised to take the jump to the next level having this happen to Jose would be bad news.

The other thing that would be absolutely brutal for some of the Sox off-season moves is the ball suddenly goes back to not being made out of plutonium and all the dingers are now warning track fly outs. In the past this wouldn’t be the end of the world for Jose, but last season he decided to turn and burn way more than in seasons past, and a dead ball would have his numbers crash faster than that guy trying to prove the earth is flat by flying his own rockets.

 

BAH GAWD THAT’S ABREU’S MUSIC: Here’s my prediction for Jose for this season: it’s gonna be pretty much the same as last season. What we’ve seen out of Abreu lately is the new norm for him, as pulling the ball for power is a lot more fun than trying to split the right and center fielders. Running sucks, and people who do it for fun are insane. Why leg out a double when you can put one in the bullpen and jog around the bases? His final line will look something similar to this: .269/.325/.489, with 30 dingers and 110 RBI for a total of 2.0 WAR and a wRC+ of 115. Which is perfectly acceptable for him on this team.

Jose will most likely start the season hitting out of the 3 or 4 hole (Because Ricky Renteria), but with all the danger the Sox present in their lineup going forward Ricky will see the value of hitting Jose out of the 5 spot where he can comfortably knock in runs all year without the pressure of hitting higher in the lineup. He’ll have to spend some time at DH to get Grandal and Encarnacion reps at first (which he hates) but he’s the ultimate team player, and it’ll work for him.

The most important thing for Jose is he’s gonna have a shitload of fun this season, right along with the rest of us. Even if the Sox end up with 85 wins and miss the postseason by 6 games it’s going to mark a change in that dugout. The wave hasn’t made it to the shore yet, but it’s on the horizon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everything Else

Tweedle Dee, Tweedle Dumb, Tweedle Dumbest

By Sam Fels 3163 0

If you truly want to be enraged, this piece from Scott Powers ought to do it.

All three members front and center of the administration, as it were, take turns showing their ass and incompetence in this. When you really get a look at who is steering the ship at all levels, you’ll be left with no faith that any of this is ever going to be fixed. This isn’t the captain failing to spot an iceberg at night. This is three people who don’t know what an iceberg is. Let’s go through the utter slime spilling from each of their mouths.

“I think going forward it’s pretty important that we have to know who we are,” McDonough said on ESPN-1000’s “Hockey Show” on Feb. 8. “We have to know where we’re going. I think we have to do our best to get back to great. But we have to do it in the right way. There has to be a process to it. We’re in a bit of transition right now. Where we are right now is not unexpected.”

If every Hawks fan didn’t drink a gallon of paint thinner upon reading this, I’ll be surprised. Anything to ease the pain.

First of all, this doesn’t mean anything. I’ll tell you who you are, Mr. McDonough. You’re an NHL team that plays in Chicago. There. Done. Boy, that was easy. And you’re not a particularly good one. All of this “right way” and “process” gobbledygook is just someone who doesn’t have any idea what he’s talking about trying to sound smart. I’m a little surprised he didn’t find a way to work “synergy” and “proactive” into the conversation. It’s been three years of this horseshit, and just now they’re thinking about “a direction.” Left at Albuquerque, dimwit.

I also love this, “I think we have to do our best to get back to great.” Oh you do, do you? Fucking groundbreaking! What a discovery! Here every other NHL team is straining and scratching just to get their teams to “watchable.” But here comes Albert/Aristotle/Confucius McDonough and he’s got a new idea! He’s gonna strive for great! ELECT THIS MAN PRESIDENT OF THE GODDAMN UNIVERSE! HE WILL GUIDE US TO NEW HEIGHTS WITH HIS BRILLIANT AND TO THIS POINT UNHEARD OF IDEAS! ALIEN CIVILIZATIONS WILL TREMBLE AT HIS ACUMEN AND LAY DOWN THEIR PHOTONS!

Secondly, if this is not unexpected, then why did you fire Quenneville? If this was all part of your process, why wasn’t his performance up to par? And the day you did that, mind, you said this was a playoff roster. It’s going to miss the playoffs by open lengths for a third straight year. You expect us to buy this?

Do we know if McDonough is capable of tying his shoes?

Then it was Stan Bowman’s turn to open his mouth and remove all doubt.

“There’s no question we’re positioned better down the road,” 

Well… I have a question. What does a second and third round pick guarantee exactly? They’re lottery tickets. Sure, they could position you better in the future. And those players could end up with a squeegee in their hands in four years. Do they really think Slava Demin is going to change the Hawks’ fortunes? Those 23 points in two college seasons he’s played must’ve been really impressive.

But for where we’re at right now, it’s important to try to build up some assets and build for the future, and I think we’re in a better position to do that now than we were yesterday.”

If that was the goal, then Brandon Saad and Corey Crawford should have also been shipped out for whatever you can get. If gaining assets and solidifying the future was priority one, then you do that as much as humanly possible. If your aim is two or three years down the road (and we’ll get to that in a minute), then these players probably don’t matter to you. But what Stan did was half-ass it. Which he’s been doing for years. They didn’t pick a road, just paid lip-service to it while pointing in various directions to look like they’re doing something.

We haven’t even gotten to the good part yet.

“The biggest thing is in today’s game is having young players play an important role,” Bowman said. “I think the last couple years we picked in the top 10 the last two years. We hadn’t picked there I don’t know how many years it was, probably since we picked Patrick (Kane). So I think that’s where you get some of those high-end players. I think the challenge is to try to get as many of those as you can and then build from that way out. Luckily, we still have some other established players that are difference-makers.

Certainly hard to trade for. I guess it happens rarely when they become available. You typically have to draft them or develop them. Maybe trade for them or sign them as free agents.

“There’s no shortcut to it other than drafting and developing those players. Then the question is how do you acquire those? That’s what we’re trying to do, trying to acquire either young prospects or draft choices we can use to find that next group. 

I’m going to need to go lie down.

Let’s try and clear this out as best we can. Do you know how many top-10 picks anchored the Hawks’ Cup teams? Three. Toews, Kane, Seabrook. Keith was a 2nd-rounder. Bolland too. Same for Saad. Crawford as well. Hjalmarsson a 4th. Kruger too. Shaw a 3rd. Should I keep going? Good, because if I do my organs are going to bindle-up and thumb it out of my body.

Aside from Kane and Toews, the Hawks have two top-ten picks in the lineup now in Dach and Boqvist. How many more do you need, chumley? You have to do more than just hit in the first round. And you just turned down the chance to take more spins at getting those impact players. DeBrincat is the only player taken by the Hawks beyond the first round to have any impact in six fucking years, and that’s just going back to Vinnie Hinostroza. You probably have to go back to Saad in 20-motherfucking-11 to find a true one.

So you want to tell me more about your development system, Stanley?

Also, just off the top of my head, here are genuinely impactful players that have either been traded or moved as a free agent in just the past couple years: Taylor Hall, PK Subban, Jacob Trouba, Ryan O’Reilly, J.T. Miller, Erik Karlsson, Joe Pavelski, Tyson Barrie, Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, John Tavares, Phil Kessel, Jason Zucker, Jeff Skinner, Nino Neiderreiter. Funny, none of them went to the Hawks. Maybe Stan was too busy figuring out his formula and McDonough was trying to find a compass so he could learn how to use it so he could point the Hawks in a direction. That’s if he can figure out who they are first, of course. Seems to me you can find impact players in all sorts of ways.

“Yeah, I think if it was something that was known, if we knew exactly what the future held then you could have that conversation, but it’s just a lot of guesswork on everybody’s part as far as nobody knows what our team’s going to be year to year,” 

That quote right there is a fireable offense.

You’re the GM. You’re the one plotting the course. You’re supposed to know exactly how long it’s going to take for the Hawks to compete. It’s supposed to be laid out in your office. You’ve had three years of serving up trash, and you still can’t say how long it’s going to be? You’re supposed to know exactly when every prospect should be reaching the NHL. How much time they need in junior/college, AHL, and then your team. You know when every contract is up, and who will be a free agent every year from here until the ocean swallows us all (do I need to tell you about CapFriendly.com?) Tell you what, we’ll all turn our tickets back in and you can call us when you’ve got it figured out.

The Hawks have wasted three years, and are now not just telling the fans but their veteran players who actually eat the shit every night of losing that they don’t have a plan or an idea when they might be able to stop eating shit. Also, and I didn’t include quotes for this, but Stan goes on to say he doesn’t feel the need to talk to Toews, Kane, and Keith about what the plans are, exactly a year after he said that’s exactly what he would do. Which is probably best, because Keith might knife him at this point.

If you swapped Bulls and Hawks management for a month, would anyone notice?

Oh but don’t you worry, dear reader, because Jeremy Colliton got to spill industrial waste over his bottom lip and will have a Hazmat crew called in to clean up.

“My responsibility is to push these guys to play at their highest level every night, and particularly the young players, to give them opportunity to improve and couple that with feedback and accountability, as far as what they’re doing every day, so they can take a bigger and bigger role,”

I can’t.

This comes merely hours before Colliton called out his players for the second time in a week for not playing hard enough, for not paying attention to the details, for doing their own thing. Dylan Strome is on a wing. Adam Boqvist won’t move his feet with the puck in his or the neutral zone. Kirby Dach spent half the season on the fourth line. Dylan Sikura isn’t even here for Matthew Highmore. Lucas Carlsson was called up after Dennis Gilbert and then scratched for Nick Seeler.

Let’s go about it this way. Which young player is better now than when Colliton showed up? A grunt like Matthew Highmore? Valhalla here we come.

The goddamn plane has crashed into the mountain, my friends.

 

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Preview: The Rizz-inator

By Sam Fels 1242 0

You know the Cubs offseason was even more off-kilter when Anthony Rizzo, perhaps the happiest and jolliest man on the planet, shows up at The Convention spitting fire. He was pissed about the attempts to trade Kris Bryant, he was pissed about the Cubs refusal to even discuss an extension with him, he was pissed that his owner is a billionaire who can’t seem to find the extra millions to keep the team together. And he was right. And seeing as how Rizzo is the unquestioned heart of this team, it will be he is the indicator of whether this team is going on a Fuck You Ricketts World Tour or is simply going to quit on the front office. I’m willing to bet it’s the former, especially with his Splinter David Ross as manager.

Anthony Rizzo 2019

146 games, 613 PA

.293/.405/.520

.390 wOBA, 141 wRC+

11.8 BB%, 14.0 K%

-6.9 Defensive Runs

4.0 fWAR

Amongst the trash of the 2019 Cubs season, it would be easy for most fans to forget that Rizzo had something close to a career year last year. Highest batting-average, highest on-base, third-highest slugging, second-highest wOBA Of course, some of this can be attributed to the baseball made of aliens. It was the slide in homers that cost him some other career-high numbers, but clearly this was another offensively dominant season from the double-cuatro.

YES! YES! YES!: There probably isn’t a bigger given than Rizzo. He’s been metronomic in his production, with only 2018 as anything resembling an outlier and even that was a 126 wRC+ campaign where he was basically undone by an unusual number of fly balls not leaving the yard. Every other year, Rizzo’s wRC+ is between 135-155, a wOBA of .380-.390, and so on. He hits 27-33 homers, and hits somewhere within 10 points either side of .280. You can just write it in.

There really isn’t anything to suggest that Rizzo won’t put that up again, unless you take his greater tendency to go the opposite way last year as a sign he can’t get around on the fastball anymore. But considering he slugged .679 when going the other way, it would make you think it was on purpose and he wasn’t just trying to jerk everything. Rizzo has always had power the other way, and is a supremely smart hitter, so this just seems part of the blueprint. This kind of suggests it was by plan too…

You’re A B+ Player: Rizzo has turned 30, so there is something of a fear that his decline, if not upon us, is right around the corner. Which is probably why the Cubs were a little hesitant to discuss an extension with him, as they might want to see what the next couple years hold for him. Rizzo’s contact numbers slipped just a touch last year, though they were still above league-average. But this is seemingly very nit-picky.

The main problem with Rizzo is health. The past couple of years, Rizzo has missed a handful of games due to back problems. And back problems don’t tend to get better as you get older. That was capped off by injuring his ankle at the end of the season, which he didn’t really have any business playing on in that Cardinals series last year, but he did it because his team needed him. We’re still talking about a player that appeared in 146 games last year, and even 140 games of Rizzo is enough. The Cubs would probably like more flexibility to get him more days off than they have, and maybe between Baez, Bryant, and Contreras they can find a way to do that. The worry is that the back starts to get worse in a hurry.

But when it comes to Rizz, that’s about it.

Dragon Or Fickle?: As stated above, Rizz is basically the surest bet on the Cubs. Bryant has his health issues, and whether he’ll even be allowed to stay, and how he’ll deal with the rumors flying all year. Javy’s wild ways can always swing cold for a month. Contreras and Schwarber have their contact issues. Rizzo doesn’t really have any of these, other than minor health questions. This year, he probably won’t even have to worry about where in the lineup he’ll be, as it looks like Ross is going to put him #2 and leave him there. So a 135-140 wRC+ season with the usual pretty good defense at first, and the unquestioned leadership.

That’s the one thing about Rizz, is that if he is the leader of this team, and everyone would tell you that he is, then the things that slid under Joe Maddon as far as focus and preparation are partly on him. He has to swing the hammer in the clubhouse, along with Lester and one or two others. Ross can only do so much. While Rizz is out there for the media and take the bullets that way, it’s been said he can be a little quiet in the clubhouse. That won’t fly now, if the Cubs are making their prep and focus a focal point of any turnaround. It’s on Rizz to make sure everyone’s on message. Because if he speaks, everyone will listen.

Baseball

New World Order: 2020 White Sox Previews – Zack Collins

By Adam Hess 1293 0

The first roster-fringe player we cover on our 2020 Sox Preview series is Zack Collins. While there is not a guarantee that Collins will make the Opening Day roster, he probably should get a good long look before the Sox decide to burn another option and send him down to AAA for however long, as he has very little left to prove in the minors. In a world without James McCann, Collins would be the obvious backup catcher, but as long as McCann is here Collins’ roster spot is in a bit of doubt. But we will touch on that. Let’s dig in

2019 MLB Stats

27 GP, .186/.307/.349, 3 HR, 12 RBI

-0.3 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR, -0.3 WARP

13.7 BB%, 38.8 K%

.285 wOBA, 77 wRC+ .656 OPS

-4 DRS, -3.1 FRAA

Last Week on Nitro: Collins spent most of 2019 in AAA, where his numbers were infinitely better than that drivel above us. I listed his MLB stats because, as I said in the open, he has almost nothing left to prove in the minors and should be an MLB player moving forward. But don’t let those rough stats from limited action as a rookie scare you off – Collins’ slash line in 88 AAA games was a much more encouraging .282/.403/.548 with 19 HR and 74 RBI, good for a .401 wOBA and 140 wRC+. Among the most encouraging aspects of Collins’ numbers at all levels of the minors and even his short MLB spell is the walk-rate and OBP, as that 13.7% he posted in the bigs last year counts as the lowest that number has been for him at any level of the minors. Collins simply does not chase bad pitching, forcing pitchers to come into the zone where he is a legitimate threat to take them deep on every pitch.

Another reason you can quite easily disregard any concern that could come from looking at those 2019 MLB stats is the way Rick Renteria used Collins when he was first called up. Despite the fact that the Sox had no one on the MLB roster who could serve as a reliable DH, Ricky kept Collins out of the everyday lineup and only had him playing sporadically every 3-to-5 days, and two of his first eight appearances (including his freakin’ MLB debut) came as nothing more than a pinch hitter. Going from an everyday impact bat in the minors to bench piece is a tough situation to be in when you’re also trying to adjust to MLB pitching. Obviously that was still when McCann was one of the Sox best hitters, but it was still poorly handled, in my opinion.

There are a few concerns about Collins’ future in the bigs, but I don’t think his 2019 should lose you any sleep.

TOO SWEET (WHOOP WHOOP): The best case scenario for Collins in 2020 is that some catcher elsewhere in MLB gets hurt and the Sox are able to trade McCann to fill that void, opening up the roster spot for Collins to walk into. There is a legitimate case to be made that Collins is a better fit for the 2020 Sox’ roster than McCann, anyway. With the presence of Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yasmani Grandal, all of whom hit lefties extremely well and should never sit when the Sox are facing a lefty, McCann is kinda crowded out of the only lineup where it makes sense to play him consistently. On the flip side, Collins absolutely raked righties throughout his MiLB career and in a perfect world might even feature in a lineup vs RHP over Abreu, although now we are just dreaming.

Regardless of McCann’s presence on the roster, Collins needs to spend significant time at the MLB level in 2020, and the ideal outcome would be that he gets platooned almost exclusively into those lineups vs RHP. That would eliminate a huge weakness from Collins’ game immediately. The walk rate is far from a concern, though you definitely want to see the K-rate come crashing down. He’s never struck out at a rate lower than 24.4% in the minors, but being below 30% is all I ask. Getting him into those RHP lineups on a semi-consistent basis and bringing the K-rate down should allow him to bump that OBP up closer to .350, and if he starts putting the bat on the ball more he is going to hit very hard and very far, so the slugging percentage will be nice as well. No, I don’t give a shit about his batting average.

Lastly, an ideal 2020 sees Collins’ work with his good buddy Grandal behind the plate take him from a downright liability at the backstop to a reliable backup option. That’s not too much to ask, is it?

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: The nightmare outcome for Collins’ 2020 season is that it ends up looking an awful lot like his 2019 did. You don’t need a hell of a lot out of a backup catcher, but when you draft a guy in the first round of the MLB draft because his best position is hitter, you need to see that hitter come through. I don’t think he will ever stop walking, but if he can’t at least make more contact he will never really get to take advantage of all his power, and he will probably need to have at least a .210 average to really let his OBP be any semblance of productive. If 2020 looks like 2019 and he stays below the Mendoza line, the walking will only be worth so much.

I don’t actually think his fielding will get worse, but if he doesn’t improve behind the plate there could be some major problems.

BAH GAWD THAT’S COLLINS’ MUSIC: I think that at some point in the season, McCann will no longer be the primary backup catcher for the White Sox and Collins will take over that mantle, either via McCann getting traded or the Sox just doing the prudent thing from a organizational future standpoint, prioritizing the young controllable player instead of the pending free agent. Collins could also end up being the backup 1B and DH, giving Ricky three different ways to work him into lineups at various times throughout the year and get him more consistent at bats.

In terms of results, I would expect Collins line to wind up more in he realm of a .220/.350/.450 kinda player, as I really believe that even getting above .200 on the average will turn Collins into a damn near elite OBP guy. I still think he will strike out too much – more than the ideal 30% mark I said in best case – and that will prevent him from getting to all of his power, but he should hit 15-20 dingers if he appears in 60+ games. Unless his defense vastly improves, it will bring his WAR metrics down, but I think he can still be worth 1.0 to 1.5 wins in a semi-regular backup role in 2020.

Previous Player Previews

Yasmani Grandal

James McCann

Hockey

Game #63 – It’s Meat That Dries in Summer Heat and Reeks Now of Its Rot – Hawks 5, Blues 6

By John Pullega 2011 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

If the remaining 19 games go like this, we can be satisfied. It had all the intensity and anxiety of the conversation you have waiting for the results of a pregnancy test with the ugly but interesting one-night stand whose child you don’t want to birth. It put on full display the potential of the young ones, the awfulness of the old ones brought in, and the never-ending struggle that is being Corey Crawford. It was terrible and beautiful, much like the Gateway to Anywhere Else on the Mississippi, respectively. Let’s dredge it.

– If the Hawks are going to win one more Cup with this Core, Kirby Dach is going to play an outsized role in it. He made three plays in particular that should inspire some confidence in the future of the forward corps.

The most obvious was his patience on the far boards to set up the Hawks’s third power play goal of the game. He took his time scanning his options, then opted for Strome behind the net. Strome took two seconds before firing a perfect pass to Saad in front to give the Hawks their last lead of the game. We continue to be overwhelmed by his vision and passing skills.

Maybe the most inspiring play Dach started was one that didn’t show on the score sheet. After an extended shift, he gathered the puck in his own zone on the far boards and delivered a crisp cross-ice pass to Boqvist. The pass was so good that Boqvist had time to make a stretch pass to a streaking DeBrincat, who janked a pass to Strome. Strome gloved it down and had an A+ chance that he couldn’t convert. And though Strome should be playing center, the idea of a Dach–Boqvist–DeBrincat–Strome connection should make the vas deferens tingle in all of us.

The thing that will determine whether Dach is very good or elite will be whether he can find his finish close in. Yet again, he dropped his shoulder to plow past a defender, but couldn’t finish in front. Still, lots to be excited about from the guy they took instead of Bowan Byram.

– To prove that irony isn’t dead, the power play scored three times, and each of Keith and Murphy scored a goal in the first game after they traded Gustafsson. The beautiful game.

– Though the box score will be all the fodder those dumbass build-the-wall motherfuckers need to open their wrists about the Lehner trade, without Crawford, the Blues score 10 easily. On top of keeping his team in the game after they were wildly outclassed in every way, Crow bounced back from an Alex Steen shoulder skullfuck that went uncalled. Nothing can be easy with the calmest man on skates. The only reason Corey Crawford shouldn’t retire as a Blackhawk is if he tells the organ-I-zation to eat all of his shit at the end of this year.

– Speaking of eating shit, Olli Maatta reassured us that buying him out at the end of the year is the only answer to “What happens to Olli Maatta at the end of this year?” When he wasn’t getting caught chasing forwards to the far boards and leaving the slot wide open—like he did on the Blues’s first goal—he was throwing wild passes to Zach Sanford right in front of Crawford, like he did on their fourth goal. And when that wasn’t enough, he was busy getting ragdolled behind the net, like he was by Ryan O’Reilly leading up to the Blues’s fifth goal.

I don’t ever want to hear “Actually, Olli Maatta hasn’t been that bad” again.

– Nick Seeler slotting in for Lucas Carlsson was a thing that happened because Jeremy Colliton is a stupid asshole who can do no wrong in Bowman’s eyes because he’s the prototypical Company Man. But how can you not make that decision with heady plays like this?

That’s Seeler covering David Perron at the blue line. For some reason. And what do you know? Thomas, who scored an easy goal, was standing right in the spot where Seeler should have been if this team played anything even tangential to defense. But yeah, Colliton’s doing a fantastic job. When you can dress Nick Seeler and play him in this diarrhea-in-reverse system, you just gotta do it.

– Though we would have accepted a Brandon Saad trade if the return were right, tonight gave us all the reason to be glad that didn’t happen. He was all over the ice and noticeable in the best ways, despite getting skulled in possession, much like the rest of his mates.

– Boqvist had a rough game overall, as should be expected when you’re 19, have your coach actively pissing in your ear, and get paired with a defensive luminary like Olli Maatta. But on top of his good stretch pass, he totally horsed Sundqvist to set up the Hawks’s final power play attempt. Watching him move his feet for a change was an oasis, but it’s also another instance in the mounting evidence that Colliton is bridling him, which sort of defeats the purpose of Boqvist at all.

This game was a terrible fucking mess, complete ass cheeks if you will, but at least it was fun. It had everything for every Hawks fan: high scoring for all, good play from the kids for those committed to the long term, and a big fat loss for everyone looking for a tank. In the most galaxy-brained terms possible, this was one of the best games they played all year.

Fucking hell.

Beer du Jour: Hopnaut

Line of the Night: “He knows how to score.” -Pierre on Top Cat