Everything Else

Maybe They Don’t Have A Plan So They Can’t Keep Changing It

By Sam Fels 2079 0

As the weekend wore on, I sold myself more and more on the Kirby Dach pick. We’ll never know, but my hope is at #3 the Hawks wouldn’t ever pick for need. Those picks come around maybe once or twice a decade (unless you’re the Oilers), and you take the best player on your board. If for the Hawks that was Dach, fine. Any argument for Turcotte there seems equal to me as Dach at this point, and at least Dach was playing in the realest junior league. He also seems to have a higher ceiling, and I’m always here for guys who make the game look easy, as Dach does, than go-go-motor guys like Turcotte kept being advertised as. That “making it look easy” can easily devolve into just remaining on the perimeter and fading into the background of games, which is why the Getzlaf comparisons are frightening. It’s up to the Hawks to make sure that doesn’t happen.

But what bothers me about the whole drafting policy is that it seems a whole new sense of direction, and a dumb one at that. We’re only two years removed from THAT press conference after the Predators had left tire tracks all over the Hawks where Stan Bowman definitely wrestled total control of personnel from Quenneville and his cronies, and promised that this team would and had to get faster. Saad-for-Panarin didn’t really make the Hawks faster, but you could see the logic (only kind of). Murphy-for-Hammer did make them more mobile on the blue line.

And their draft kind of reflected it. Jokiharju is hardly big and is supposedly mobile, though I haven’t really seen that yet. Ian Mitchell is definitely mobile. Altybarmarkyan is small and fast. Evan Barrat isn’t even that quick and he’s small too. Same goes for Tim Soderlund.

Last year’s offseason moves are barely worth talking about, because all it really included was Bowman spiking Q with Brandon Manning. But signings like Kampf (admittedly earlier) and Kahun and other Euro signings stuck to the “getting quicker” theme. And at the draft it was Boqvist, Beaudin, Kurashev. All meant to get to playing at a quicker pace in the future, especially from the back end. They even reached on Boqvist to do that.

And now we’re here. Dach at #3, Vlasic at #43, who just happens to be 6-5 with skating concerns. Michal Teply is 6-3, and he doesn’t have the skating worries that Vlasic does but the “good speed for his size” doesn’t make you think he’s a burner.

This goes along with the rumors that the Hawks are hot after Anders Lee, who is a good player and has a fit here but is also something of a big plodder. So has there been a gear shift? And why?

The why you know, even if it is complete horseshit. I don’t know how the Hawks could buy into the theory that the Bruins and Blues grunted and farted their way to the Final through the use of viking warlords or something. Here’s the Blues top players from the playoffs, and that’s even if you think you should be using a team that missed the playoffs last year and then got sweetheart matchups all the way to the Final as some sort of model:

Schwartz, Schenn, Tarasenko, O’Reilly, Perron, Pietrangelo, and Parayko.

I guess Pietrangelo and Parayko are big and the latter plays like it, but where are these crushers at forward? Do the Hawks really think Pat Goddamn Maroon is such a difference maker they need like four of him.

Now the Bruins:

Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, McAvoy, Krug, Grzelcyk.

Chara was a fucking anchor all playoffs. Where are the monsters here as far as size? Back it out to the conference finals and you have the Canes, who simply battered Lee’s Islanders, and the Sharks. Again, where are the heathen hordes on those teams? Or on the Lightning, who did manage to be one of of the best teams ever in the much larger sample size of the regular season?

I don’t know where the Hawks think they’re going to go by getting slower. What are you going to do about Colorado on the five nights you’re lining up against MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, Byram, and Girard? If Nashville does sign Duchene, he is pretty damn quick if nothing else. Did Winnipeg lose speed? You’re still trying to catch up to all these teams, and you’re going to do it with Anders Lee and Olli Maatta?

Having your finger in the wind isn’t a plan, and maybe that’s why the Hawks have told you they don’t have a plan.

-The Hawks were making it seem like they really want Dach to take a spot this season, though most experts think that’s a stretch The thing is, they can shelter him just about as well as any team could. A center at 18, you’d want to keep him at the offensive end as often as possible. Which means you’d have to have Kampf and Toews take most of the defensive zone shifts. And you can do that, but is that what Toews is anymore? He could do it, but you’d lose a fair amount of offense from him because he’s no longer the guy who can continually flip the ice. Maybe he’s got one more year of doing that in him, but I’m skeptical.

And who would Toews do that with? Saad in theory, but then who? Would be a waste of Kane (and don’t be surprised if you never see Kane and Saad on a line together ever again) or DeBrincat. Is that what Lee would be for? That involves flipping Saad over to the right, which he’s never really taken to. It’s an odd fit, though I guess you could scratch it out.

Then one wonders who plays with Dach. Kane? You want shooters with Kane, and Dach isn’t that. Just give him Kubalik and like, Sikura and shelter them as heavily as possible?

The problem for Dach might not be what he can do, but what the Hawks can give him. Still, I find it hard to believe that there’s that much benefit from beating up on children he’s already played with for another season, and because the AHL isn’t an option you might as well keep him here. At least show some urgency. You just said it’s not like you’re waiting for him to grow.

 

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Mets: Pulled Back From The Edge

By Sam Fels 1276 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 7, Mets 4

Game 2 Box Score: Mets 5, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Mets 10, Cubs 2

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 5, Mets 3

There have been a handful of times this year, going against my try-to-keep-calm nature about a baseball season, where I’ve been on the precipice of getting worried or upset about this team and thinking it might need bigger changes than I thought. Or giving up on any sort of glory in October. And then right about as I’m going to Tommen myself over the edge, they’ve pulled a rabbit. Splitting with the Sox and Mets isn’t exactly acceptable, but losing three of four to the Mets would have been far worse. Now you’re only one game off where you should have been on this homestand really, and a series win over the admittedly molten Braves probably gets you there. There’s still much to complain about, but now they’re just complaints instead of outright beefs.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Javy Baez’s last two ABs are the difference between the raw variety show he used to be and All-Star he is now. He was completely overmatched by deGrom in his first two PAs, though a lot of hitters were. He couldn’t pick up the slider and he wasn’t getting within a foot of it. Then in his third AB he went with a plan, fought off some tough pitches, and muscled a single through the middle. Gained a little confidence, and even being down 0-2 to Lugo didn’t phase him. And then he finally remembered right field is legal, and pulled his team’s ass out of a sling. I shouldn’t doubt him.

-If you do want to worry, here’s Jose Quintana for you. It was only four starts ago that he did throw seven against the Rockies, but walks in the last three have been a problem. Yesterday he was wild in the zone, and though I thought he had some rough BABIP luck with Jeff McNeil basically cricket-ing a double for two runs, he fell apart after that. I think it’s just a blip, but when he got in trouble yesterday he abandoned his change. He can’t do that, because then he’s just two pitches. Even if he doesn’t have a feel for it, he’s got to find it. Hopefully back to basics soon.

-I’ve had enough of McNeil and Alonso for a while, thank you.

-Alzolay’s debut was certainly enticing, and no one should get ahead of themselves. But he does present some more interesting options, and one of them the Cubs will use this week is six starters to keep everyone fresh. When Hendricks returns he could again be what Chatwood and Montgomery could have been, a multi-inning weapon out of the pen. He was going to be on an innings-limit anyway. We’re a long way from that, but it’s at least something to get excited about.

-Friday’s loss is the one that hurts. Sometimes it’s not your day and you get stuffed like Saturday. But Friday was there for them. Yu was itchy again, there seems to be this fascination with getting Brach right even though he probably won’t be here next week, and then continued use of Montgomery as a LOOGY which he’s never been. It’s not like McNeil crushed that ball off of him or anything but Monty isn’t missing a ton of bats either. Give him a clean inning, or two, or three. It’s what he’s built to do. He’s not a high-leverage one-hitter dude. Add up enough games you feel like you should have gotten and you’re in the muck with the Brewers and Cardinals. And no one wants that.

-Bryant has two homers in June. He’s slugging .453 in the month. Are we a touch worried about either wear or the shoulder again? This seems long for a slump.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Of Course They’d Take The One We Didn’t Preview – Hawks Select Kirby Dach

By Sam Fels 3778 0

I knew it would happen this morning, and Jay Zawaski pretty much told me it would happen. But I didn’t do anything about it. Anyway, this isn’t about me. The Hawks used their third pick to take Kirby Dach out of the WHL.

So what’s Dach’s deal? If the Hawks tell you they weren’t smitten by his size, they’re lying through their teeth and even those are false. However, that’s unfair to Dach to merely call him a big body. As far as vision and hands, most will tell you Dach’s are only second to Jack Hughes, and might even be a match. He’s a highlight reel waiting to happen, and if hockey were to ever have a Magic Johnson type-passer, here you go. Dach is going to send a few fans, and one certain color analyst, into orbit a couple times with his deferential play, but the plays he will make probably make up for that. And you can add looking for your own shot to one’s game over the years. You can’t add how they see the ice.

Dach skates very well for a player his size, so if you’re having shivers about another Strome or Anisimov, don’t. He’s a better skater than both of them now by some distance and that might improve. 73 points at 18 in the WHL, probably the realest league of the CHL, isn’t anything to sneeze at, though it’s not galactic.

The drawbacks for Dach are that some scouts, ones that probably snort a lot, believe he can be pushed around and out of games. There’s also some question about whether he brings it every night, because the ability to dominate every game is there. He’s big but is going to need some time with Paul Goodman, and a lot of it. The hope for the Hawks, if any of that is true, is that A) Dach’s playoff performance in 10 games was something that refuted a lot of this, and B) being around Jonathan Toews will show him the way. We shall see.

So what does this mean for the Hawks next year? Stan Bowman said after the pick they’re going to give him every chance to make the team this year. So look for him to get at least some if not all the nine game tryout, and he’ll have to kill it to stick. But if the Hawks are determined to get him on the team, you’d have to believe that Artem Anisimov is a goner. We can only hope. Still, it’s a little strange that no later than 2020-2021, the Hawks will have two sizable, pass-first centers. Then again, you can’t ever be too deep down the middle. So whatever.

Still, the Hawks still have no answers on the blue line. They have no one poised to be on their top pairing who can either do it or is ready for it, and that’s going to need addressing. Even if Dach makes the team, the top six looks short one finisher, though maybe after all this time Saad is going to be it (HA!). That also might need addressing.

There’s a lot of boom promised with Dach. There’s also a fair amount of bust. And whatever he is, the Hawks can’t be done. And the notion that Bowen Byram went next and will be in the division, and he solved a lot more than Dach does right now…well, good luck, kid.

Everything Else

In The Words Of My Father: No No No F**K No

By Sam Fels 2868 0

That was usually the response after a viewing of my report card. Anyway…

So there was this. You ever had food turn to ash in your mouth, like that curse in the only good “Pirates Of The Caribbean?” Or a beer just go to pure salt? That feeling that your organs are actually melting and will soon excrete out your pores? Yeah, that was my reaction to this. It’s also the same feeling as watching Corey Perry play.

I know what the writers will say. He’s motivated. He’ll come cheap. He was once great. He brings “an edge.” Veteran leadership. Feel free to add your own hockey bullshit terms and ideas. You know what they are by now.

I can’t stress this enough. Corey Perry is finished. Done. Ex-Perry. Ceased to be. Shuffled off the mortal coil. He is no more. Not only did he come up with a mere six goals in 31 games last year, he did that coming off total knee surgery. He can’t move. And if he can’t move, he can’t score. He can’t even annoy, because you can’t annoy when you’re never within 20 feet of the puck. The only time he can annoy is after whistles, which only gets you a lot of penalties.

On top of that, his metrics are woeful. He couldn’t keep up with the Ducks, who were woeful themselves and coached by a GM who comes close to drowning in the rain. And he had those terrible metrics while getting to start most of his shifts in the offensive zone. He spent all his time backing up. Actually, he spent most of his time racing the trailing official back to his zone. He can’t do anything.

It has been four seasons since Corey Perry managed 20 goals. You can find probably 50 guys who can get you 15 goals who can actually skate and not cost you a penalty per night. He’s not even worth the risk for a bottom six, because your bottom six has to be fast in either a checking role or simply trying to match a fourth line. There is no room for plodders. Perry no longer has the skill to make up for being unable to move, unlike the past where his skill made up for middling skating ability. He’s a buoy in a dried up lake bed.

Sure, the bottom six is where you can take a risk or two. Because these days it feels like your bottom six is equivalent to a bullpen. You keep pulling the handle on it year after year and then one day you get the three 7s or whatever and you’re good. And then the next year all the same players could suck for no reason other than they are middling NHLers and that’s what they do. Don’t fucking tell me Pat Maroon was the key to the Blues success, which is clearly what the Hawks think they can replicate here. This is learning the wrong lessons. If you end up playing well then you trade for guys you wouldn’t normally stash on your bottom six but can in a playoff run like Marcus Johansson or Antoine Vermette once upon a time. Carl Hagelin in the past. That type.

If you wanted useful players on your bottom six for cheap, you wouldn’t have traded Domink Kahun for a medicine ball with a dumb face. Did you see David Backes this year? That’s what Perry will be, except likely worse (though cheaper). There is no, “Well, maybe he could…”  He can’t. And he sucks. And he’s a penis. Speed, speed, speed. Out and up the ice. Pressure everywhere. Perry helps you with exactly none of these things.

Why do I think this is going to be a disastrous week and a half for the Hawks?

Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present: Trevor Zegras

By Sam Fels 1623 0

We round out our look at possibilities for the Hawks at #3, assuring that they won’t actually take any of these guys, and we’ll stay with the USNMTDP, or whatever alphabet soup makes up what goes on in Ann Arbor. It’s Trevor Zegras.

Physical Stats

Height: 6′ 0″  Weight: 174   Shoots: L

On Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP   Team: USNTDP  Pos: C/LW

60 games – 26 G – 61 A – 87 P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

If their Marian Hossa withdrawal is that bad, then Zegras might be the fix. Yes, every goddamn prospect who at least shows a passing interest in his own end gets compared to Marian Hossa, but Zegras might actually deserve it. He has plus-plus speed, and a great burst to get to it, and he is as willing to show it off getting back to his own zone as he is going forward. The inhaling of puck-carriers and stealing the puck you remember from #81 could be a hallmark of Zegras’s game as well, though he’s not as big (we’ll get to that). But it’s not just about willingness with Zegras, who has premier playmaking ability and vision. His hand-eye is also high up if not off the charts, which makes him a weapon around the net. Zegras also is something of a pain in the ass, in a good way, and you know how that always has hockey execs reaching for a hand towel. Zegras is strong for his size and age, but also isn’t afraid of getting into people’s heads and I’m sure a Brad Marchand comparison isn’t too far into his future. Zegras also have positional flexibility, being able to play center and wing, which means he can be eased into the league whenever he gets there on the wing and then moved to center if need be.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him.

Along with being a stretch, Zegras is probably the farthest away from the NHL of everyone previewed. He will need at least a year at BU, and maybe two, as the game he wants to play is going to require strength he hasn’t needed yet and doesn’t have. Second, while the positional flexibility is a good thing to have, there are better players at each of them the Hawks can have. If they really want a center, Turcotte is probably better bet and comes with a lot of the same qualities. If it’s a wing they want, then get Caufield who already has an NHL-level skill in scoring, and perhaps a high-level NHL skill. And at just 6-0, playing a grinding game as Zegras is tempted to do might wear him down pretty quickly. And there’s always a chance he becomes in love with his nuisance persona, but that’s being harsh.

Verdict

Zegras seems a nice floor guy. You know that at minimum you’ll get a two-way center or wing with a lot of speed who probably rarely if ever drops out of your bottom six. But at #3, you shouldn’t be worried about floor but ceiling, and his is a touch lower than Byram’s or Turcotte’s or even Caufield’s. While two years waiting isn’t that long, and Zegras could likely be ready after just a year at BU, the Hawks really can’t risk waiting around for two seasons for this pick to make an impact. By that point they may already be toast. A couple slots lower and this pick would make all the sense in the world. At #3, it would be kind of a lack of imagination.

Baseball

Series Preview – Mets vs. Cubs: Something About These Colors

By Sam Fels 1270 0

vs.

RECORDS: Mets 35-39   Cubs 40-33

GAMETIMES: Thursday 7:05, Friday-Sunday 1:20

TV: Thursday WGN, Friday NBCSN, Saturday and Sunday ABC

ASLEEP ON THE 7 TRAIN: Mets Blog

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Walker Lockett vs. Tyler Chatwood

Jason Vargas vs. Yu Darvish

Zack Wheeler vs. Jose Quintana

Jacob deGrom vs. Cole Hamels

PROBABLE METS LINEUP

Jeff McNeil – LF

Pete Alonso – 1B

Robinson Cano – 2B

Michael Conforto – RF

Wilson Ramos – C

Todd Frazier – 3B

Amed Rosario – SS

Juan Lagares – CF

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

 

As the Cubs return to regularly schedules National League action, they’ll be greeted by the visit of the ship that always seems to be facing the wrong way, the New York Mets. What is it about teams in this shade of blue and orange? There’s a lot of similarities between the Mets and Edmonton Oilers, from the greatness in the 80s to the seemingly unable to get out of their own way methods of the past decade to wasting the prime of generational talents like deGrom and now possibly Pete Alonso. It was ever thus with the Mets.

Alonso is the story on the offensive side for the Metropolitans. He’s third in the NL in homers with 24, seventh in slugging, and has propped up a lineup that has had to drag along too many guys, including Robinson Cano who was supposed to be the dragger and not the dragee. Other Mets system products like Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have done most of the rest of the heavy lifting. The offense took something of a hit when Brandon Nimmo‘s neck was filled with bugs and Yeonis Cespedes’s feet were the recipient of a witch’s curse (though Cespedes has never been that good), which forced Juan Legares into the lineup every day pretty much. Todd Frazier has been just about average, as has Wilson Ramos. It’s a line up that just screams, “fine.” There are some clear holes.

The rotation is about what you’d expect, though it’s had what are no its usual injury problems, as every member of it has missed a start or two and had to have some weird microscopes or resonance tests. It’s very Mets. deGrom, Thor, and Wheeler have also suffered from what is still a subpar Mets defense, as they’re carrying far lower FIPs than ERAs. The Cubs will only have to see two of them this weekend in Wheeler and deGrom, whose matchup with Hamels on Sunday is going to be the main event of this series. That’s not to discount Vargas who has been able to dance through the rain drops this year with some heavy fly ball ways and some righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery. Walker Lockett, which sounds like a name out of Deadwood, will make his Mets debut tonight instead of Thor. He’s a control/grounder type who made a brief cameo for the Padres last year.

The Mets pen has been the normal adventure is always seems to be. Prized winter acquisition Edwin Diaz has not turned out the lights as he had before, though mostly effective. Robert Gsellman is already about to die of exhaustion. Seth Lugo has been another stalwart, but after that the Mets have trotted out 17 other clowns to try and get outs and it’s been…well, let’s say abstract. Jeurys Familia, scumbag that he is, responded to losing his closer role by being awful and then hurt, and the Mets haven’t found any other solutions besides the first three mentioned.

And as always, the Mets are a circus off the field, between how they’ve ground their pitchers with obvious injuries to the bullpen to not getting a game out of Jared Lowrie with an injury they can’t seem to diagnose, to today where they’ve fired their pitching and bullpen coach. You can always count on them to be the Mets.

For the Cubs, they’ll fill in for Kyle Hendricks tonight by letting Tyler Chatwood start and then having their only pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay follow up. It’s a first look at an actual, breathing promise on the mound for the Cubs, who have yet to produce one since…arguably Hendricks? Before that it’s probably Andrew Cashner? Let’s not think about it.

As for the rest, they’ll hope Contreras’s big night is the sign of another binge, as the Cubs could use it. They will miss Thor and Matz, which is something of a boon, but they’ll not want to have to get past deGrom to win this series if at all possible, as he’s coming off his best start of the season. Then again, they made quick work of Lucas Giolito, so who fucking knows?

The Braves will be a stiff test after this. Best to treat the Mets like the Mets.

 

Baseball

Mets Spotlight: Has Michael Conforto Finally Survived The Mets?

By Sam Fels 1228 0

It seems a long while ago that Michael Conforto was bursting on the scene in 2015. While at the time the Mets had already rolled out Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz in their rotation, Conforto was the first shot in a homegrown lineup to match the rotation. Conforto lit up the National League for the last two months of the season, with a .509 slugging, 133 wRC+, and a .359 wOBA and was along for the ride to the World Series that year. After trading for Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets looked to have their outfield set for a bit, at least in the corners.

But never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets.

Conforto struggled in his first full go-around in the majors, as players tend to do. But mostly it was due to some rotten luck, and Conforto was still was getting on base through walks, hitting the ball pretty damn hard, he just couldn’t get anything to fall. It earned him a brief demotion back to Triple-A, which opened up space for the Mets to acquire…Jay Bruce? Yep, that’s right. The Mets ended that season with an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Cespedes in center (where his graham cracker ligaments were always going to do really well), and Bruce in right, making an excellent impression of the old people and their walkers doing their laps around the mall. Needless to say the looks on the Mets pitchers’ faces as line drives and fly balls kept falling into open spaces while that trio wheezed and gagged over to them would have been Websters-worthy of “bemused.”

Again, never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets, because they re-signed Bruce and then tried to cram Conforto in center, where he had never really played. And trying to cover for Bruce and Cespedes, when he wasn’t disintegrating, or whatever Granderson had left, wasn’t exactly the place to learn the position. Conforto did hit the shit out of the baseball though, with a 147 wRC+ as he was shuffled around and to the bench.

The Mets seemingly got the message last year, though Cespedes showing up in the morgue might have helped with that. After brief flirtations with Austin Jackson and Jose Bautista, the proverbial poking dead bodies with a stick, the Mets allowed Conforto to play left every day and Brandon Nimmo to play center.

They’ve moved Conforto over to right this season, and he’s responding with one of his best offensive season. His walk-rate is a career-high, and his slugging and other numbers are around his ’16 level. Conforto’s line-drive heavy ways are back from a year hiatus as well.

The difference appears to be Conforto’s production on slower pitches. He’s always been a “Can Pull A Bullet” guy, but struggled with change-ups and curves. This year he’s hitting those at a .250 and .267 clips, which are way above his career norms. That helps buttress his usual fireworks on the hard stuff (.289 and .579 slugging).

Even better for Conforto is he no longer has to carry this lineup after everyone gets hurt. Pete Alonso is odds on to win the NL Rookie Of The Year with his homer-a-day policy. That doesn’t mean the Mets haven’t totally been the Mets, as their trade for Robinson Cano is looking like another piece of Queens genius as Cano has caught Cespedes ligaments and health and hasn’t been any good when he has been around. And thanks to that lineup and some injuries in the rotation the Mets haven’t been able to vault themselves into the NL East discussion, which the Braves look like they might turn moot soon anyway.

Still, at least Conforto didn’t get completely buried by Mets-iness. It’s killed many before him.

Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Cole Caufield

By Sam Fels 1671 0

The FFUD #3 pick preview keeps rolling on, and today we’ll look at one who would be a true stretch but also might put up the best numbers of anyone. 

Physical Stats

Height: 5′ 7″  Weight: 157   Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP  Team: USNTDP  Position: LW

64 games – 72G – 28A – 100P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

Goals. The name of the game is still scoring goals, and if you’re going to have a one-dimensional player, as long as that dimension is scoring the fuck out of the thing, then that’s ok. And Caufield is the best pure scorer in the draft. That’s clear, no one is disputing that. 72 goals in 64 games, even at that level, is enough for anyone to take notice. He’s also dominated at international level for his age group, with 14 goals in seven games at the U-18s. The release is already making people think of Ovechkin and MacKinnon, He’s not the skater that MacKinnon is but he’s hardly a plug on his feet and is more than fast and smart enough to get to the open spaces to get off that shot. The hands are there too, so the thought is that his playmaking could improve, whereas this year he had Jack Hughes to do all that and all he had to do was finish. Some would say getting to play with Hughes inflates the numbers, as if you could complain about 72 goals, but as we learned with DeBrincat you still gotta finish those chances and Caufield does it at what could be called a generational level.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him

One, he’s a stretch. Even as he’s climbed up the boards as people ignore his size, he tops out as the fifth-highest rated prospect and lower on other boards. You’d be passing on what look to be better players to take him, unless you trade down and that would mean getting something tangible for the #3 pick. And the Hawks aren’t going to trade the #3 pick. If he’s your guy he’s your guy, though.

This is where I’m supposed to say size. No, the Hawks have shown they don’t really care about that if the talent is there, and hopefully they stick with that, but the Hawks are starting to specialize in small, nippy forwards and eventually you do have to have someone at least average-sized somewhere. Even if Caufield were in the NHL in ’20-’21 (which seems likely), there’s just about only one spot he can play and that’s across from Kane, and boy would that line be fun, in the good way offensively and the bad way defensively.

Third, the Hawks need a top-pairing d-man and they probably need someone to carry on from Jonathan Toews in two to three years, and Caufield isn’t either of those. The Hawks do have a chance to get either of those at #3, and while Caufield has a special skill you can’t really teach, wingers just don’t move the needle or change directions of teams as much or as often.

Verdict

To call Caufield “a risk” is wide of the mark. The dude is going to score, and he’s going to score a ton. As soon as he arrives with whatever teams gets him, he’s going to fill the net and there will be a ton of articles about the teams that passed on him, simply because of that one stat. But it is THE stat. That said, at #3 and what the Hawks have a chance to get, it seems too much of a stretch. You can never have too many guys who can score 40, and Caufield probably gets to that before too long. But he just isn’t as dynamic as Byram or Turcotte.

Now if you get a bonkers package for the #3 pick and somehow end up at #5-8 where Caufield might go…then we’re talking…but that’s not going to happen.

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs And White Sox Split: Baseball Gonna Baseball On Ya

By Sam Fels 1328 0

Game 1 Box Score: Sox 3, Cubs 1

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 7, Sox 3

It’s somehow perfect, at least on the blue side, that this mini-series would work out in opposite fashion than you would have guessed. The Cubs couldn’t figure out Ivan Nova, but then they shelled the American League’s hottest pitcher. Sure. Why wouldn’t it be that? Nothing about this Crosstown affair has ever made sense. And of course it would be Willson Contreras delivering the deathblow tonight, because I poopooed him earlier in the day. You can’t fucking script this stuff.

So the Cubs and Sox split. Everyone who works at NBCSN will try and attach greater meaning to it. And there is none. It was just two games. In the words of Homer, “It was just a bunch of stuff that happened.”

The Two Obs

-Fine, we’ll get the main story, or the one that everyone will push, out of the way first. Of course Eloy Jimenez hit the winning homer off of Pedro Strop in the 9th of the first game. It’s the perfect arc. The Cubs have pen problems, Strop is meant to be a partial salve, Eloy is the “one who got away” according to everyone who needs there to be a narrative. We could have told you this on Monday afternoon.

Clear up some facts, partially thanks to Hess. Quintana has been better than Lester since he arrived, and if you sold the trade as Eloy and Cease for Lester, Cubs fans probably go along with that. Second, Schwarber and Eloy have been equals mostly for this year, so it’s not clear where the hell Eloy would have played had he still been here. Eloy will go on to be a great player, likely. The Cubs did not make a mistake. Both of these thing can be true.

(If you want the mistake, check out Gleyber for Aroldis. And that one ended with a parade, so is it really?)

-It’s strange that Ivan Nova has been so much better on the road, because thanks to the weather Comiskey has not played like the launch pad it normally does. But that’s just how it’s been.

-Lester got six whiffs on the eight swings on his curve tonight, which I suppose is encouraging. Him having to hump and sweat through 17 outs kind of isn’t.

-Aaron Bummer is kind of the perfect example of how weird relievers can be. He came up in ’17, and though he had a bad ERA no one could really touch him, as a .178 BA against would prove. Perhaps an inept defense didn’t help. Last year, he was bad, and now he’s dominant. Would you take the bet that he nets more than Colome at the deadline? He does throw left-handed, remember.

-Galactus is fighting it a bit, at the moment.

-From the minute that Kelli Crull said she’d be touring the park during Game 1, you knew exactly what would happen, right? It would be a series of couples and groups split between fans of each team, and they would just scream into the microphone. And it would be something along the lines of the Cub fan screaming how great Wrigley is and the Sox fan about how Cubs fans are only out for the party and other shit we debunked like 15 years ago. We’ve been watching this for 22 years. Give her something better to do for all of our sakes, especially hers.

-Hmm, David Bote homered on the same day I suggested he just play every day. Is it working in reverse now?

Onwards…

Everything Else

Escrow Is Just Code For “Imma Get Mine”

By Sam Fels 2239 0

Before we get any farther, this blog has always been pro-union, wherever that may be. NHL owners, all team owners really, and probably almost all insanely rich people are evil and need to be fought against and reigned in. I am wearing three Che Guevara shirts right now.

That said, the NHL is being stupid on all sides. I can’t sum it up any better than Barry Petchesky does here, but in a nutshell we’re in the height of NHL transaction series and no one has any idea what their budgets are. That’s really solid work there, and only possible in hockey. It wouldn’t be so hard to figure out a hard deadline when both sides need to agree on what the cap should be, except neither has gotten around to it for what seems to be simply because neither thought of it. That’s hockey, baby.

Anyway, the main sticking point here is that the players don’t want to use their installed escalator to the cap, which can go up to 5% of what the cap is dictated to be. So if the cap were set at $82.6M, the players could raise it as high as 86.7M. But they won’t, because of escrow.

At this point I’m guessing most of you know what escrow is, but for those who don’t, because the salary cap is pegged at projections of a 50/50 split of revenue, portions of a player’s check are held back in case actual revenue doesn’t meet the projections of a 50-50 split. Now, I imagine having 10% of your salary just held in jail every month sucks, because you have a contract that says you should get paid the full amount. Especially when we’re talking about guys making $8-10 million, that’s a lot of money you’re not seeing. Anyway, at the end of the year when everyone knows what revenues are, that money gets returned to the player or sent to the owners to even everything out.

And players hate it. You can see why, but the problem is that there really isn’t any other way. If you have a system that bases salaries and salary caps on projections, then there’s always going to be some sort of fail-safe to make sure the real numbers match up with the projected ones. You can’t know for sure what revenues will be down to the dollar. And sure, the owners don’t have similar skin in the game because they don’t have salaries, they just take the revenue that’s not given out as salaries. There’s nothing from them that can be put in something similar to escrow.

You could peg the cap to the previous year’s revenues, but then players wouldn’t be making half of what the owners are currently making and the players would hate that. You could try and just negotiate a fixed number years ahead, but neither the players or owners are going to risk getting less than half the pie now. There’s little wiggle room, so not utilizing the escalator is the surest way to keep escrow down or even not have it at all.

And to the players, or at least the bigger ones up the chain, that’s what matters. But the problem is that not raising the cap squeezes out a lot of other players. How many veterans, who probably should be earning $3M a year or so, end up just signing PTOs in September because teams simply don’t have the space to fit them in yet? How many veterans are going to give up total salary, not just escrow, to fit into a team’s cap space simply because they have to. Maybe it’s their last contract.

So Jonathan Toews can bitch about escrow all he likes, but someone should ask him if that money that he only “might” not get is more important than say, players like Marcus Kruger or Valtieri Filppula getting jobs at all or having to take serious pay cuts. You are supposed to be a union after all, aren’t you? A higher cap means more for more players. You would think it’s the greater good.

Again, the players agreed to this system. If they hate it so much they should have actually held out for a luxury tax system, or at worst some kind of veteran or mid-level exception like the NBA so that their non-use of the escalator isn’t costing other players jobs. But at the end, much like owners, players aren’t really that concerned with getting everyone something as long as they get their something.