Hockey

Game #12 – Hawks vs. Kings: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1301 0

Hawks

Notes: Well, this is the definition of “happy horseshit.” It’s not that far away from making sense, but where is the checking line here? Does it have Kane on it? What him play in a pout all game if it is. Dach as a fourth-liner? Maybe it protects him a bit. Watch for Nylander and Kane to switch spots by the 2nd period, assuming Kane doesn’t break his stick over Colliton’s head in the intermission. And the pairings! Oh the pairings! Why would you take Boqvist, a budding cowboy and perhaps going to be one of the biggest cowboys in the league (which can be a good thing) and pair him with someone who thinks he’s still one of the biggest cowboys in the league? Keith isn’t a babysitter. Maatta would be. So would de Haan. This probably won’t last either. Good thing the Kings suck the deepest of pond scum.

Kings

Notes: The Kings themselves are having a reshuffle, which is how you know this is a game amongst the remedial class. They just gave up 49 shots to the Canucks at home, which is worse than whatever it was the Hawks were attempting in Nashville. Martinez and Doughty is really loading up, but Doughty probably needs the help now. Dustin Brown has been a third-liner for at last four years, so that works. Toffoli was a healthy scratch against the Canucks on Wednesday, which is not what you want heading into free agency. This is going to be a mess.

Football

Week #9 – Bears vs Eagles Preview: Oh Dear God, Narratives

By Sam Fels 1520 0

vs.

RECORDS: Bears 3-4   Eagles 4-4

KICKOOFF: Noon Sunday

TV: FOX

BRING BACK THE KELLY GREEN, DOOFUSES: Bleeding Green Nation

If it wasn’t bad enough the state of the Bears right now, Sunday is going to be filled with the kinds of stories and headlines that broadcasters love to reach for and beat into a pulp because they’re so easy. A playoff game from the previous season. Former players against their former teams. Struggling QBs. Questions over another kicker. You’re going to hear all of it Sunday, and probably by the time the second quarter starts you’ll be ready to go Elvis on your TV. And that might not even have anything to do with the actual play on the field. Then again, it might.

The Bears will roll into South Philly just about as big of a mess as they’ve been in…well, it’s really only been two years. They don’t know what they do on offense. They don’t know what they can do on defense at the moment. The special teams remain horrible. Their coach might actually be going Colonel Kurtz. And playing an opponent in similar straits didn’t do much for them last week. This time, they’re on the road.

The Eagles have some of the same problems, but they have the gloss of a Super Bowl and at least a passable defense of it still shining somewhat, at least buying everyone some time. Their quarterback at least needs it.

Carson Wentz went through some offseason character assassinations, some of which stem from him not being at the helm when the Eagles were achieving the business end of their success the past two years. There’s no Nick Foles now to lob up wounded prayers that no one can seem to get their hands on except those clad in green (still think Eddie Jackson would have won that game last January, and this is about all I have to hold onto now), so it’s all on Wentz. Our own Tony Martin documented how Wentz has been a bit all over the map this season.

Still, the Eagles have done a very good job of protecting Wentz, much better than Nagy has done with Mitchell. The Eagles have ramped up their rushing attack as the season has gone along, and they rank third in the amount of times they run the ball on first and second down in close games. Which is where NARRATIVE #1 comes in, and that will be Jordan Howard. He has steadily improved as the games have racked up, and with some Bears fans and media still befuddled at his trade and the Bears inability to get David Montgomery on track outside of last week, you can bet this is going to be harped on consistently by whatever meatbag is in the broadcast booth. If it’s Thom Brennaman again, he’ll probably be in a Howard Eagles jersey.

And as we’ve seen, the Bears haven’t exactly been a Spartan phalanx against the run this year. Which means Chuck Pagano is going to have to come up with something, which might leave the Bears even more vulnerable to some big shots to possibly returning firework DeSean Jackson along with shorter throws to another old friend in Alshon Jeffery and Julie Ertz’s husband in the seams. Fun times.

On the flip side of the ball, it’s once again a balance of whether the Bears catch a break in that they won’t face a hellion of pass rushers or the Eagles absolutely jonesing to get a look at the Bears offensive line. The Eagles have been pretty good against the run, which means Mitch is probably going to have to make some throws and you’re already hiding in the bathroom with a bottle of Old Crow and a shotgun. The Birds went heavy on man-coverage last week in terrible conditions in Buffalo against Josh Allen, daring him to make accurate throws in the wind. It’s not their usual forte, but there’s also no reason to think they won’t double up on that given that the entire league, country, world, and possibly a few alien civilizations feel that Trubisky can’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo when the chips are down.

Which means we’ll get a whole lot more stories and narratives about last year’s playoff matchup, and how the offense let the defense down, how they missed a kick to win it, how Trubisky didn’t make enough plays in the first half to win the game, and how perhaps something broke that day with this team that has yet to heal.

All that said, it’s not like the Eagles secondary has been great, they’ve taken the ball away just about as much as the Bears have (i.e. not enough) and Allen Robinson should be getting open a lot of they’re going to insist on man-coverage a ton. Let him make the plays.

For no reason whatsoever, this feels like a game the Bears are going to win for no reason whatsoever. Other than football can be truly stupid, I guess. Everything points to the Eagles winning. They’re at home, they won last week, and they have the voodoo signs of last year. They seem to have found something of a formula for themselves last week in running the ball, which is ahead of the Bears. However, this is the Eagles and they’re always capable of throwing in a clunker, as evidenced by them getting crushed by the Vikings and Cowboys back-to-back (though both were on the road). But they’ve also lost to the Lions at home.

For the Bears, the season very well might be gone already so calling this a last stand is probably not accurate. Still, a loss here could very well send this team to oblivion, especially a bad one. A win with a home game against Detroit waiting at least allows everyone to keep breathing for a time. And I think we all want to believe last week was bottom. If it wasn’t…well, I already told you about the Old Crow and the shotgun.

*Glass Breaks*

“Oh my god that’s DJ Yung Milwaukee’s music!”

*Air Horns*

Fels-

Imma let you finish (oh wait you did), but I’ve got some piping hot takes I’d like to toss in here, because like Randy Orton on Monday night, I gotta wait until minute 19 of your 20 minute match to waltz in and hit you with an RKO to give you a DQ win. 

I think your last couple paragraphs are super telling, because you’re right- the Eagles sometimes lay an egg, but these Bears are Mancow from those Eagleman commercials: they have already crashed the car on which the egg is laid. The Eagles could play a stinker and beat the Bears, similarly to how the Packers, Chargers, and to a lesser extend Raiders all played poorly enough to lose but had the Bears nobly snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. 

The key to beating the Eagles defense is through the air, because as you mentioned they have a fairly stout run defense. Naturally, this doesn’t play to the strengths of the Bears offense. The key to beating the Eagles offense is to make them one-dimensional, which also would require a strong start offensively. The projected game script doesn’t favor the visiting team, but as last night’s 49ers/Cardinals game proved, a QB with decent mobility that can step up and away from the pass rush can make the big play if the blitz loses contain. The only hope I have that this is a possibility is how crisply Anthony Miller was running on Sunday, and there is certainly a chance he can break off a route and turn a busted play into a big one, which will inevitably end with him being tackled on the 5-yard line and the Bears settling for three points. 

While I’m here, you’re partially right in your assessment that Eddie Jackson puts the Bears over the edge, because while that might be debatable, if both Jackson and Bryce Callahan were playing that game ends differently for sure. Jackson hasn’t had the opportunity to make his signature breaks on the ball since this year’s pass rush is lacking, and Buster Skrine isn’t really blowing minds as a replacement for Callahan. 

This game has “letdown” written all over it, but hey we’ve been let down since London so why worry? I’m more interested to see what Nagy does now that the season is getting away from this team from a play-calling perspective. This team is on the verge of being dangerous because they have nothing left to lose.  

 

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: The Pen And The Rest

By Sam Fels 1499 0

I finally wrap up our Cubs season review, perfectly timed with snow on the ground and the World Series now over and waking up every day from here until March thinking, “Today is the day the Cubs are going to do something stupid, isn’t it?” Anyway, I didn’t feel like giving everyone in the pen or bench a full write-up, so let’s just speed through them and get on with our lives, shall we?

Craig Kimbrel – Jesus God. It was a desperation move, and it played out exactly like one as Kimbrel couldn’t overcome the delayed start to his season, and then the rush job to the Majors. He was bad, he was hurt, and then he was bad. His velocity was down a full two MPH from 2017, the last time he was some galactic creature batters couldn’t handle. He was good in ’18 but the walks had crept up, and that didn’t stop in 2019 either. Perhaps with a full spring training and a clean bill of health, Kimbrel can recover a portion of the lost velocity. He’s never going to be CRAIG GODDAMN KIMBREL again, but there’s little reason to think he can’t be a good to very good reliever. David Ross might want to think about talking to him about moving into something other than a strict closer role so the whole pen can be fluid, but I won’t hop on one foot waiting for that to happen.

Kyle Ryan – Pleasant surprise, of course after I declared he was a new suckbag. Hard to know if he can be counted on again, because he’s the type of reliever that just turns into discarded hygiene products for no reason other than he’s just a reliever. Gets a ton of grounders. Worth taking another look at.

Steve Cishek – Thanks for everything, but remember when you leave your right arm is probably staying here.

Brandon Kintzler – Returned to being the solid reliever he’s been most of his career. Probably worth a one-year deal if he’s willing, but also used earlier in the game and not counted on as a prime set-up guy. Gets lefties out, so hopefully Ross isn’t afraid of using him that way like Maddon was if he’s still here.

Tyler Chatwood – I have this dream where Chatwood and Alzolay are used as multi-inning weapons once or twice a week each, maybe more. That shields the rest of the pen, takes some pressure off the starters, and lets Chatwood come out and blow 97-98 MPH past guys like he was later in the year. It’s probably what he’s best at. The reality is he very well might have a chance at the fifth spot in the rotation. It’s hard not to notice the near 4-to-1 K/BB ratio in the last two months when he became accustomed to the role. It might not be what he wants, but he is good at it.

Rowan Wick – The Pitching Lab’s first success? Probably could have been slotted into a prominent role much quicker than he was. Strikeouts faded laster in the year as he was used more and more, which is a concern. Still gets a ton of grounders. Has a job to lose come Arizona.

David Phelps – Get the fuck outta here with this.

Derek Holland – Great entrance song. Everything else sucked.

Brad Wieck – See, this is really how you’re supposed to find relievers. You find something in a pitcher that his current team doesn’t, or that can be changed or harnessed, you pick him up for nothing and get him firing upon arrival. This big lummox isn’t there yet, but there were signs of hope and is definitely worth another spin. Struck out nearly 17 hitters per nine innings as a Cub.

Dillon Maples – It’s just never going to happen, is it? There is an absolute monster in there somewhere, but it’s buried in fastballs that hit the screen or the mascot. Might be time to wave the white flag on this one.

Duane Underwood Jr. – Yeah sure, let’s see more.

Clearly there need to be upgrades here. You can’t go into next season with questions hanging over Kimbrel and unknowns like the Fabulous Wick-er Boys and some kids. I would say two solid vets, not too expensive, is the prescription here. We’ll get into our shopping list next week.

Hockey

The Future Starts Slow

By Sam Fels 1843 0

Is it desperation? Is it just a recognition the Hawks have a serious speed and skill deficiency? Is it just to distract from the Seabrook drama? All of it? Who the fuck knows, and who the fuck cares, because we get to see the most fun toy the Hawks have in the organization (outside a fully engaged Patrick Kane, which we haven’t seen this year yet). Earlier today, the Hawks called up Adam Boqvist.

The need for Boqvist, or the idea of Boqvist at least, is quite obvious. The Hawks have no d-man who can skate himself out of trouble. They have no defenseman who can get them started in transition by himself. They have no puck-movers, ever since Erik Gustafsson suddenly lost the limited skill he had to be that. Their power play sucks, and is in desperate need of movement and creativity.

Can Boqvist do all this? Yes, someday. Now? Certainly not all at once. And it would be utter lunacy to have #27 doing anything above a third-pairing role to start. Which is probably why the Hawks will do it. They could be that desperate. In 12-15 minutes a night, Boqvist is not going to be able to turn games or change them. But you’ve got to start somewhere, and if they really think something is going to come of this season, then you need to start the process of getting him there as quickly as possible.

Boqvist can do things about the power play. The Hawks need power play goals. They’re not going to go anywhere without them. They’re not good enough at even-strength, and they’re not going to be unless they find one or two more Boqvists than they have. They simply have to win the special teams battle. They’re getting completely turked on them now. Boqvist isn’t going to help the kill, but he can help the power play.

So no Kirby Dach shit and not have him out there even if he’s a rookie. Fuck, put him on the #1 unit ahead of Gustafsson. I don’t care. Knock it off with this goddamn drop pass at center ice. Have Boqvist threaten it, but then skate through two people and create chances off the rush. With Boqvist’s speed and skill, he can actually back people up at the blue line. Gustafsson can’t, which is why no one takes his rush up before that drop pass seriously. They’re just waiting for Kane to get it.

How does it affect the lineup? My first guess would be it sends Dennis Gilbert back to the muck where he came from and belongs. I would not be surprised if it actually knocks Gustafsson out of the lineup, simply because if you have Gus and Boqvist in the lineup at the same time, your penalty kill would only have four d-men on it. Although the Predators do that. So do a couple other teams. You can get away with it if those four D-men are good. Maybe when Murphy is healthy again (for the limited time things stay that way), you can get away with Murphy, Keith, de Haan and Maatta killing penalties, I don’t want to think about it.

Ideally, your pairings by Thanksgiving will be:

Murphy-Keith

Maatta-Boqvist

de Haan-Gustafsson

That’s almost representative!

I would imagine Gustafsson will be traded at some point this season, just because he’s not earning a contract right now in free agency and if he eventually does, the Hawks can’t or won’t afford him. Maybe Seabrook will be too now, who knows?

Anyway, the now. Are there going to be shifts and whole games where Boqvist looks terrible? Absolutely. There are going to be shifts and games where he’s the best show in town. A lot of these are going to cross-over into the same game. But the Hawks need it.

The Hawks have made it clear the next three years are what matter here. Dach is here to stay. Boqvist is up. The movement to the next generation has started. Ride the snake.

Hockey

Take A Dach Holiday…Take Some Time To Celebrate…

By Sam Fels 2083 0

Still in a Madge mood. You lot are just going to have to deal.

Anyway, broke about an hour ago that Kirby Dach is going stick with the big club all season. And really, unless he had completely shit himself in these nine games, this is what the Hawks wanted. Part of the reason they drafted him was his NHL frame, and they thought he would have the best chance of playing all season. Alex Turcotte certainly wasn’t. Bowen Byram didn’t make the Avs (though he probably would have made the Hawks). The Hawks had this in mind when they made the pick.

And really, Dach isn’t going to get much going back to Saskatchewan. As I do this longer and longer (and longer and longer), I get to thinking that more kids could probably play in the NHL the year they’re drafted. They come up more and more ready after specialized training at younger and younger ages (whether that’s really a good thing is another debate for another time). But the NHL is still so backwards that they have to fight against what went on before being believed to be the only way by so many. Some still need to physically develop of course, but I really wonder what the weight and training regimens are like at the junior level. College would be more of a sure thing. If Dach needs to hit the weights to add muscle to his frame, he might was well do it with Paul Goodman instead of some hilljack who’s got him throwing bales of hay around in the snow.

This would be an excellent spot to also rant about the bubble of junior hockey being a shit location for the mental and emotional development of a kid, but let’s not right now.

As for what it says about the Hawks… I’m not totally sure. It says either that they think this season matters still, which they pretty much always have. Or it could mean they think Dach’s development is just better suited for this level right now. Or both. Dach is better than whatever other option there was, be it center or wing. Coach Kelvin Gemstone was getting closer to the 3+1 model that Q used forever, with Kampf on a checking line and the other three out to score. And he’d given Dach the help he needs with Saad and Shaw. Maybe you flip Caggiula and Saad to get Saad with Toews at some point, but maybe it doesn’t matter.

And let’s face it, it gives us all something to watch. We don’t know where this team is going, and we don’t know it isn’t headed for a garbage dump in hell right now. But Dach’s development is something we can all keep coming back to, and we need all the help we can get.

Football

Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Week 8: It Ain’t Easy To Get To Heaven When You’re Going Down

By Sam Fels 1120 0

Our boys gather round again to try and pick through the rubble:

Not sure if it’s better to ask where they go from here or how we got here, so why don’t you guys just go ahead and rant…

Brian Schmitz: I’ve said it since camp, Eddie Pineiro cannot be trusted. His mechanics are not tight enough for him to be consistent. Too many moving parts; which will break down when the timing isn’t perfect. If he makes that kick, the season takes on an entirely different feel. Yes, Pace sucks at his job, Nagy is overmatched, and Mitch isn’t very good right now, but if that kick goes in, the noise from the outside (which does effect the inside) is substantially muted for at lease the next six days.

Tony Martin: David Montgomery is the real fucking deal y’all, and if I’m being honest I loved the offensive gameplan. Not a big fan of Nagy turning full red-ass Jon Gruden in the post-game conference, however. What happened to this defense that thrived on creating pressure? Pagano isn’t bringing extra heat like I thought he would, especially given the struggles of the front-four to get consistent pressure.

This team is lost. Both the defense and special teams have longer touchdown plays this year than the offense, with Patterson’s 102 yard kickoff return and Haha Clinton-Dix’s 37-yard pick six both being longer scoring plays than Taylor Gabriel’s 36-yard touchdown catch.
As for Eddy, yeah that was a disappointing game, but a team attempting five field goals with three possessions inside the 10 resulting in nine total points is not the recipe for winning. Running Tarik Cohen on 3rd-and-goal from the 9 in the first half yesterday was the most limp, shitty, John Fox playcall that I’ve seen from the Bears all season. I’m not sure who is feeling the pressure more, Mitch or Matt.
So where do they go from here? Is it just evaluation time? Something to salvage?
Tony: From here? There’s still nine more of these trainwrecks to go? Shit. There’s no point in tanking since the Bears don’t have a first round pick next year, so I guess it’s time to see what works. I’m not thinking evaluating too many players since I think they know what they have on the roster from a talent standpoint, but maybe Matt Nagy starts looking for more personnel groups/formations/scheme ideas that may or may not work. The next nine games should absolutely be used to see if Mitch is worth developing or if it’s time to look in another direction. It’s been three years, if he still doesn’t look like someone who can take the Bears to the promised land in the next two seasons, let him go.
Brian: Above anything, Matt Nagy needs to figure out who he is in these last nine games. He won’t be fired after this season, but next year is a make or break year. I don’t think Nagy will purposely try to put Mitch Trubisky in a position to fail, but look for Nagy to look out for his own best interests and stop the kids gloves treatment Mitch is getting. It’s time to open this thing up and see if next years starting QB is on this team or not.
What would you guys do with Mitch to try and salvage anything from these last nine games? If at all possible. 
Brian: You have to throw the entire playbook at him and say “go.” He is best suited as a scrambling, decisions on the move type of QB, not a dropback, read, throw type of guy. Mitch needs to play with his hair on fire. He’s stuck right now; too worried about making a mistake and because of that, is scared to take chances. It’s like trying to hit a golf ball after a lesson with 100 swing thoughts in your head – sometimes you just have to show up, swing hard, and see what the fuck happens.
Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Cole Hamels

By Sam Fels 1490 0

We wrap up our singular player reviews (I’ll have a group one tomorrow about the pen and bench) with the pitcher who might have saved it all, who probably could still help, and yet is probably not coming back. It was a confusing year for Cole Hamels, who looked 27 again for much of it, and then definitely 35 for the important portion. Wait, that’s not confusing at all. Pretty simple, even. Well I’m an idiot. Anyway, let’s do it up.

2019 Stats

27 starts, 141 innings

3.81 ERA  4.09 FIP

9.08 K/9  3.56 BB/9  1.39 WHIP

47.3 GB%  36.4% Hard-Contact Rate  12.9% HR/FB

87 ERA-  2.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It’s probably best to look at Hamels’s season before his late-June oblique injury and then his attempted comeback as two separate entities. Because before the injury, Hamels was pretty brilliant. In the first 98.2 innings of 2019, Hamels had a 2.92 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.58 FIP. Hitters only managed a .231 average off of him, and he was getting over half his contact on the ground. That’s all very good, and no one seemed to care that he was 35. Or even notice, really.

And then he got hurt. And it was the same injury he had in Texas, the one that knocked him off-stride for basically a full season. The one that made him pretty damn affordable via trade for the Cubs. And it was clear that Hamels wasn’t healthy, but still trying to pitch through it, which should have raised more question than it did about the Cubs medical and training staff as he was far from the only one laboring through lingering physical problems. Hamels only threw 42 innings after the injury, though he made 10 starts. His ERA was 5.79. Hitters went for a .315 average off of him, his walk-rate went up a third, and his ground-ball rate dropped by almost a quarter.

When Hamels came back, he had lost a mile per hour or so from all of his pitches, and he didn’t throw that hard to begin with. Worse yet, he’d lost a ton of horizontal movement to his cutter, which wasn’t even breaking in on right-handed hitters anymore. To go with that, his change had lost some fade as well:

It was almost as if Hamels couldn’t “finish” his pitches due to some physical ailment.

Hamels wasn’t around for the series at home to the Cardinals, and didn’t complete more than four innings in any of his last four starts. He was able to gut through some starts post-injury or dance through raindrops, but also got mutilated by the Brewers, Phillies, and Reds in the back half of his season. A healthy Hamels most certainly doesn’t lose all those games, and can probably go longer in others and show up to the post against the Cardinals. Would it have made a difference? It would have made a difference, perhaps not the difference.

Contract: Free agent.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: This isn’t as cut and dried as some Cubs fans might think. While it’s clear the Cubs need an upgrade in the rotation, and now thanks to the hole left by Hamels they have a clear spot to do it in, the options aren’t plentiful. Gerrit Cole is a pipe dream, and even if Stephen Strasburg were to opt out he might be an even bigger pipe dream (as well as something of a scare after his postseason load. Yes yes, “phrasing”). The rest of the free agent pool absolutely blows. Trade targets aren’t plentiful, as Syndergaard might not be gettable for what the Cubs have to peddle. An aging Corey Kluber? That might yield the same results as Hamels, given his injury problems this year, and he’s only two years younger.

So what the Cubs, or any other team, needs to decide is if Hamels is the pre-injury dude, the post-injury dude, or something in between. And with that, at age-36 is he more or less likely to get hurt again, or more or less likely to recover as well from this one. That’s a lot to figure out, and pretty much none of it has a clear answer.

The pre-injury Hamels is probably enough for the Cubs, especially with a boosted bullpen and at a cheaper rate than the $20M he got last year. Given his age, injury, and the miserly free agent market run by all the scrooges, he’s never going to get that $20M again. But even a guy who’s in between Hamels’s pre- and post-injury performance isn’t enough for the Cubs. Not without another move, at least.

The Cubs might be best slow-playing this one unless something else falls into their lap. If Hamels can’t find the money he wants or team he wants for a while, and you can get him on reasonable money for one year, he very well might be worth the risk. Again, until his injury, Hamels had the 12th-best ERA in all of baseball top-20 in FIP.

Still, you’d have deep reservations about him making it unscathed through a full season, and if you plan on playing in October again, how you’d manage him through that as well. I’d still say if he comes in at somewhere between $10M-$12M for the season, you could absolutely justify the risk.

It shouldn’t be the Cubs first option. Maybe not even second. But as a third or fourth? You can definitely see it.