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Game #40 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks: Q&A With SinBin Vegas

By Sam Fels January 5, 2018 1855 0

Ken Boehlke and Jason Pothier run SinBin.vegas. They were kind enough to take the time to answer our nonsense. Follow their work on Twitter @Sinbinvegas.

So like the crusty old hockey guys we are, seriously we only drink Molson now, we’ve scoffed for a while at the Knights success. But it’s getting time to get past that, obviously. What is the key here? Gerrard Gallant? A unique style? As lots of people will be seeing this team for the first time live, what should they be looking for?

Boehlke: The biggest thing is their depth. The top line is clearly a cut below every other team’s, but the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th are better than pretty much every team. Plus, their defense pairings can hang with anybody and are pitching in a ton of offense. They all play a quick brand of hockey and no matter who is out there at any given moment they are dangerous in transition. You turn the puck over in your own end or in the neutral zone (or even near the blue line) the Golden Knights will be in front of your net getting a scoring chance in a hurry. Defensively, they play the simplest game you’ve ever seen in the NHL. Simple fast decision making usually has them breaking out of their own zone easily and quickly (except last night against St. Louis). Gallant is the ultimate players coach and deserves a ton of credit, but there’s more to his style that’s any different than anyone else. He just has this calming effect on the players and they seem to really want to play for him. Finally, what should they be looking for? Well, quick decision making, great transition from their own end to the neutral zone into the attacking zone, and a bunch of odd-man rushes. They don’t do anything you’ve never seen before, but they are good at doing things you have. That was a long answer, but that’s what you get when you ask seven questions masqueraded as one.

Pothier:

The Golden Knights play a relatively simple game. Limiting mistakes, pushing the tempo and maintaining possession are a few reasons why Vegas has 56 points in 39 games. Vegas plays smart, makes quick decisions and keeps their foot on the gas. They’re also very balanced, getting impact production from their offense and defense. Plus, Vegas has gotten steady goaltending all season. Lastly, Head coach Gerard Gallant is the perfect leader. His roster came together quick and believed they could win. He’s not a cheerleader type, but a coach that allows players to trust their instincts. Gallant won’t mess with his lines often, and gives players opportunities to work out of funks. His assurance with the players has created a fun, loose environment. One that’s perfect for winning.

William Karlsson never had more than 25 points in a season, now he’s got 33 in less than half of one. What’s the deal here?

The main thing is usage. In Columbus he was a third or fourth liner who was normally asked to concentrate on his defense. He’s an excellent defensive center, but now the Golden Knights are giving him a bunch more offensive zone starts and have put him on a line with Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault who have made him into an attacking star. He’s just an all around stud player and his success is as much an indictment on the Blue Jackets not knowing what they had more so than the Golden Knights utilizing him properly. This guy is a stud and is going to be for a while. He may not score 30 goals every year because that shooting percentage is preposterous, but his 200 foot game isn’t going to change as time goes on.

Karlsson’s offensive stats are hard to ignore, but his overall play is what’s more impressive. He’s became a lockdown center effectively playing the full sheet of ice. His neutral zone decisions have created countless odd-man rushes for his linemates Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault. Like many Golden Knights, Karlsson has benefited greatly from more ice time. The Swede is averaging four minutes per game more than his career average. Columbus couldn’t promise the same opportunities. Now that Karlsson is on the ice more his skill is more defined. The Golden Knights have a core two-way center that has a knack for finding the back of the net.

It’s the same thing with Malcolm Subban. He was never that impressive in the AHL with the Boston organizations, and is now rocking a .922. Is that just maturity and experience or a huge spasm of luck or something in between?

All the credit in the world goes to the Golden Knights goalie coach Dave Prior for Subban’s turnaround. He hit the waiver wire and Vegas pounced on him. Why? Because Prior knew it would only take a few simple fixes to turn him from a bum to a the 1st round talent he was when he was drafted. He’s a lot quieter in the net and he doesn’t take nearly as many risks. Prior has taught him to stay standing a bit longer than normal and with his elite reaction speed and big frame it’s made all the difference. He seems to be the real deal, but I still want to see how he responds to getting lit up. It’s been all positives here. That wasn’t the case in Boston and Providence. Can he keep his head on straight after giving up five or six goals? If he can, he might be the future for the Golden Knights, if not, maybe Oscar Dansk is.

Subban has played above anyone’s expectations, including the Golden Knights organization. In Boston, there was internal pressure because he was a first-round draft pick. His role never developed in the AHL and the Bruins were left waiving him. He’s incredibly athletic, strong and humble. Subban has refined his skills with the aid of Vegas goalie coach Dave Prior. Which could be a big reason why he’s playing so well. All that being said, it’s still early to declare Subban as the goaltender of the future. Vegas fans will be happy if he is. They really love to cheer “Soooooob” when Subban makes a nice save.

So the goalposts have had to shift now, yes? Where George McPhee might have been tempted to do some selling at the deadline to get long-term assets, he can’t really do that now, correct?

Absolutely not. The only thing he can do in regards to selling is “selling to buy.” If he flips one or two of the UFAs (Neal, Perron, and Sbisa) he’s got to bring back a long term piece that can also help now. No longer are 2020 2nd round picks a valuable commodity. My guess is McPhee completely stands pat at the deadline and just lets this team ride it out, but he’s not afraid to make a splash trade so who knows. But I will tell you this, every time he’s asked about the deadline he runs the same line, “I’m not going to sit here and derail anything.” So, if you take him for his word, he’s not going to sit here and derail anything.

I’m not fully counting out roster movement at the deadline. The Golden Knights GM has continuously said he won’t derail the momentum. However, he carefully reminds fans that it’s too early to plan for the playoffs. Which in my mind suggests McPhee is more concerned about building the future. Is it still possible that McPhee trades a player like David Perron for a prospect or draft pick? Of course, the only problem is disrupting a first-place team. McPhee can’t do that, his boss Bill Foley would be livid.

With the incredibly surprising start, as well as the novelty, how has the first half-season gone over in Vegas? Are they in the news and such? Buzz?

It’s everywhere. Literally the only thing people in Vegas talk about. It’s kind of a euphoric state in which everyone can’t believe how good they are and therefore there’s very little actual hockey talk. Instead it’s just a bunch of hyperbole and disbelief about how awesome it is to have a team that’s not awful. It feels a lot like a college town where you have to know what’s going on or you are basically a social outcast. That doesn’t mean anyone actually knows what’s going on, cause they don’t and not enough people know about my website, but they certainly know what happened in the last game. It’s cool and it’s only going to get better when the real games start in April and hopefully May and June.

The Golden Knights are the talk of the town, and righteously so. However, to my disappointment the local radio and tv stations haven’t fully committed. The NFL, Raiders, NBA, and UNLV continue to lead the local airwaves. During some local programming it sounds as if the Golden Knights were never created. It’s not the fans fault. Vegas fans are loud, passionate and enjoying this fairy tale inaugural season. The entire city is amped for the second half of the season, and possibly the postseason

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Game #40 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Punchy McPhee

By Sam Fels January 5, 2018 1593 0

Just take a moment, and consider what might happen if one night on the Southside, Rick Hahn had a couple too many, or just had a bad day, and wondered down to the Twins clubhouse on a steamy July night and just drifted Paul Molitor for throwing Yoan Moncada. Or better yet, next season things aren’t going Ryan Pace’s way one Sunday afternoon, and he waited in the tunnel to jump Adam Gase (there’s an image).

What do you think the punishment for them would be? They’d be instantly fired, you’d think, no? Have to be. Maybe suspended for a season.

Not in hockey though. You may not know this, it happened nearly 20 years ago. But during the preseason in 1999, in a game in Columbus, then Washington GM George McPhee didn’t care for the lineup or deployment of the Hawks lineup. Instead of airing his grievances to the press or just heading to a local watering hold to blow off some steam. McPhee coldcocked Hawks coach Lorne Molleken outside the Chicago dressing room. This caused him to get jumped by a few Hawks players, which is even more hilarious.

If you tried to parse out inflation in suspension time, perhaps the month Gary Bettman made McPhee sit that season would be half of a season or a full one now. Maybe it wouldn’t be. But can you imagine a sport where this is forgotten? Woody Hayes did this and never coached again. WOODY HAYES. George McPhee went on to GM the Caps for another 15 years or so. In hockey, decking an opposing coach barely gets into your permanent file.

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Game #40 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 5, 2018 1639 0

All stats at even-strength unless where noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey.

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

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Game #40 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 5, 2018 1891 0

All metrics at even-strength. Info courtesy of Corsica.hockey and HockeyDB.com.

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Game #39 – Hawks vs. Rangers Preview/Track Mastering: You Can’t Get A Joint in Times Square So Who Cares?

By Sam Fels January 3, 2018 2129 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 18-14-6 Rangers 21-13-5

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN – It’s Rivalry Night, don’t ya know?

NEW YORK MIGHT BE THE WORST ST. VINCENT SONG EVER: Blueshirt Banter, @HockeyRodent

It’s not officially cold until it gets cold in New York, which it has been now, and you can hear their bitching about it from Oregon. Meanwhile this is par for the course for us, but who gives a shit when we’re here in the middle, busy sending all of our creative talent there to do the work they take credit for? Exactly. Anyway, it’s rivalry night apparently and I guess this counts because it’s two Original Six teams, though you’re forgiven if you forgot that the Rangers were an O6 teams because really… what’s Rangers tradition?

BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

The Hawks wrap up this weird six-game trip that’s bounced from Texas to the East Coast, to Western Canada, back to the East Coast, rippin’ and rompin’, North Cak-a-laka and Compton (not actually Compton). It wrapped around Christmas so the Hawks didn’t have to do it all in one, but it also makes it seem like it’s gone on forever. The fact that the Hawks piled up only one win during it, three terrible losses and one credible point I guess in Cal And Gary only made it seem longer. Which leaves us in this state of ennui we currently find ourselves.

As far as on the ice. there will be more changes. Because of course there will. Once again, Richard Panik goes from top line to pressbox in Q’s Rotation Of Confusion, with Vinnie Smalls getting a chance to do whatever it is he does with Toews and Saad. Patrick Sharp comes back from exile (handsome exile!) to be on the other side of David Kampf from Top Cat, forcing Top Cat back to the right side because whatever Baby Sharp wants Baby Sharp gets, I guess.

It spreads to the defense as well, where Gustav Forsling will slot back in to pair with Cody Franson, which won’t have the Rangers forwards giggling until they foam up at the mouth or anything. Personally, I can’t wait for Forsling to get horsed in the corner, the puck making its way to the slot and Franson kind of staring at it with a bemused expression as one might a squirrel dragging a too big piece of food up a tree. After starting the shift in their own end, of course.

Jeff Glass gets his third straight start, as horse-player Q thinks this is finally the Pick 3 he’s going to hit. This is simply asking for trouble, as the “spark” Q was looking for by starting this good story has not materialized, and has in fact has had his skaters playing terrified and panicked in their own zone as Glass spits up another rebound. It has the double effect of fucking with Anton Forsberg’s head, and with Corey Crawford nowhere on the horizon that seems a real problem. Glass is going to give up a touchdown somewhere around here, because he’s not Tim Thomas, and it’s going to be in a game the Hawks can’t really afford to just punt. Forsberg has had his spotty games for sure, but also has the better chance of holding a team below two which he’s done as well. But Q gets to play his hunches because fuck you.

To the Rangers, who are one of the weirder statistical teams you can find. They’ve fallen six points behind the division leading Caps, but have two games in hand. What’s bewildering about the Rangers is that they’re one of the worst possession teams in the league, and yet they create the best chances out of the limited attempts they take. They’re #1 in expected goals at evens per 60 minutes, even though you’d be hard pressed to find a genuine first-liner anywhere on this team. They give up a lot of attempts as well, but not that many great chances.

It also helps that Henrik Lundqvist went a bit bonkers in December, with a .936 SV%. So that talk of him being finished in October seems to have dried up a bit. That helped the Rags to a 7-3-3 record in the month, and they’ll be coming off a truly inspiring OT win in the Winter Classic against the modern day irresistible force that is the Buffalo Sabres.

The Rangers are a little beat up at the moment, as Chris “I Still Give Guys Swirlies” Kreider is out indefinitely with a blood clot in his arm, and so is Jesper Fast. The Rangers weren’t blessed with a huge amount of depth, so it’s kind of stripped their second line. Unless a troika of Buchnevich-Desharnais-Vesey scares you. The top unit of Alleged Wiener Tucker and The Two Z’s has been dynamite possession-wise but not a whole lot of end product yet. It’s the bottom six where the real threat lies, with Michael Grabner and 18 goals, Captain Stairwell, and J.T. Miller always possible to pop up with a goal. There are no big names–Nash really isn’t a top line player any more–but the foot soldiers have gotten enough done.

They’ve had problems getting Kirk ShattenKevin to fit in all season, and he’s currently on a third-pairing with worst player in the world Brendan Smith. Most of their push comes from Chance-Made-Me-Famous Brady Skjei (and the funny thing about that sketch is that Skjei is American). McDonagh and Holden take the human shield assignments, and expect Schmaltz and Kane to see them every shift.

Feels like every time I show up here and say the Hawks need to kick it into gear and blah blah blah, Kesha. Perhaps it’s just not going to happen and this is what they are. The Hawks are going to pack in the games now before their bye week, with seven games in the next 12 days. It is likely that when we get to the end of that stretch, we’ll know if the rest of the season is worth any give-a-shit or not.

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Game #39 – Hawks vs Rangers: Spotlight – Alain Vigneault Is In The Wrong Sport

By Sam Fels January 3, 2018 1947 0

Hang on, let me get my “30 For 30” voice on here. Ahem…

What if I told you that Alain Vigneault had more wins since Joel Quenneville took over the Hawks than Joel Quenneville? It’s true. Vigneault teams, and there’s two of them, have piled up 438 regular season wins while Q’s Hawks have piled up 431 in that time. He’s got far more wins than Claude Julien in that time. More then Ken Hitchcock. More than Mike Babcock. You can’t find an active coach who has won more games than Vigneault since he took over the Canucks in 2006-2007. No Vigneault-coached team has won less than 40 games (or at that pace in the case of 2013), except for his 2007-2008 team which won 39. When you hear it like that, it’s quite striking.

Vigneault has two years after this one on his contract with the Rangers, and if he were to serve it out, he would probably land around #7 all-time in wins. Clearly, the shootout and overtime rules are different now, but that puts him amongst names like Arbour, Hitchcock, and Quinn. When you hire Vigneault, there’s clearly a very high baseline you’re going to get.

And yet, talk to any NHL fan or observer and mention his name and you’ll probably get a smirk and a scoff. “What does it all matter,” they’ll probably say, “when you haven’t won the big one?” No sport puts more value on players and coaches than whether you’ve had a day with a big silver chalice.

Vigneault’s playoff record isn’t nearly as glittering. He’s been to a Final twice, and other than that there’s only been a handful of trips to the second round. And with that against his record, that’s always a blotch he’s got to get around.

But still, aside from Quenneville, is his playoff record that much worse than those considered he best in the game? Mike Babcock has three trips to the Final, two of which with a loaded Red Wings roster. Only one Cup. His teams haven’t seen past the second round since they lost that Final in ’09 to the Penguins. Ken Hitchcock has only seen the conference Final once in over a decade.

So what would be the perception of Vigneault if Roberto Luongo’s intestines didn’t turn to paste in Boston in ’11? Is that Vigneault’s fault? You really going to pull a goalie switch in the middle of a Final? What if those earlier Canuck teams didn’t run into that juggernaut Hawks team, quite possibly still the most talented team of the post ’05 lockout? Either the ’09 or especially the ’10 Canucks team was good enough to get to a Final and win it.

Yes, the Canucks did lose in the first round the next two years. But one of them was to a Kings team that no one could get beyond five games (except for the Devils who had the benefit of the Kings being too drunk for Games 4 and 5 in that Final). And then he shows up in New York, and immediately takes a limited Rangers team to a Final and then a conference final.

If he were a baseball manager, he’d be pretty well liked. Think Dusty Baker or Ron Gardenhire or whoever else. It’s still mentioned, but their regular season wins are not ignored. It would be the same in football, though in the football world every coach is a genius. Maybe basketball it would be the same case, and perhaps that’s the sport a coach has the most control over. Or the least, as you’re not going anywhere if you don’t have a genuine star or two (Tyron Lue has a ring, folks).

Vigneault is going to end up in the Hall of Fame one day, and when he does there will be a fair measure of chuckles. Maybe they’re justified, maybe they’re not. But the Canucks haven’t even sniffed a series win since he left. The Rangers probably won’t either. Teams notice when he’s gone.

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Game #39 – Hawks vs. Rangers: Q&A With Beth Boyle Machlan

By Sam Fels January 3, 2018 2002 0

Beth is our Rangers correspondent, and she’s just about thawed out from the Winter Classic. But dying of frostbite is still better than watching the Mets there. Follow her @bethmachlan.

The Rangers are kind of weird. In the past few weeks they’ve managed to beat the Kings and Bruins while also losing to the Senators and Red Wings. They seem to go to OT/SO a lot. Are they just a middling team and this is what it looks like or is it something more?

Here’s the thing about the Rangers. They can beat anyone; they can also lose to anyone. And this isn’t just the unpredictability of hockey. It’s something about the team’s core psyche, if such a thing exists. They often come out for sequential periods looking like completely different teams. I would love to know what goes on in that room, I really would. But even the team that went to the SCF was like this. I call it “Going to the Bad Place.” As for the going to OT/SO … often, it’s that they’re not generating enough shots, and they’re relying on goaltending, not defensive strategy, to stop shots on them. Watch them; they often seem to wait for the perfect chance instead of just bashing the puck at the net, and I’d argue that you have to do both to win hockey games.

It seems like Rangers fans have been bitching about the use of Pavel Buchnevich for a while. But he’s spent most of the season with Kreider and Zibanejad, and he’s third on the team in scoring. What’s the problem here?

The Buchnevich problem is a Vigneault problem. He’s not a 4th line winger, and he seems to pay a higher price for mistakes (demotion, significantly reduced TOI) than, say, Jimmy Vesey. He plays beautifully on the KZB line, but unfortunately that’s kaput now without Kreider. And AV won’t let him get comfortable or develop chemistry anywhere else. It’s irritating, because when he’s confident and in the right place, he is so much fun to watch.

Meanwhile, Michael Grabner, who plays on the bottom six most of the time, is on pace for another 25+ goal season. How does this work?

I said Grabner wasn’t going to cool off, and he didn’t. Who knows why. And this is with him also MISSING some of the most perfect setups I’ve ever seen. That said, yesterday was his first goal in 2-3 games I think, so maybe the run is ending? But no question he ends with 25+.

The Rangers only have one player on course for even 60 points. Do they need to find a way to get a primetime scorer like…oh we don’t know, Max Pacioretty?

I honestly don’t think it’s that they need a goal scorer. I think it’s a system issue. First of all, and I think I said this before … Rick Nash is the unluckiest man in hockey. If his shot can be stopped by a post or a stick knob or a dirty look or a passing pigeon, it will happen. I think the guys they have need to stop with the fancy setups and put more pucks on net. Kevin Hayes is a beast with possession but where are the goals? Rookie Vinni Lettieri scored on a one-timer against Detroit and I swear it was the first one-timer I’ve seen from this team in I don’t know how long. SHOOT THE PUCK. Frankly, I’m more worried about the effect of losing Kreider’s perfect screen.

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Game #39 – Hawks vs. Rangers: Douchebag Du Jour – If Brendan Smith Plays In The League So Can I

By Sam Fels January 3, 2018 2336 0

Generally we reserve this section for a pest, or goon, or someone who just kills the Hawks. Rarely do we allot this to someone whose mere presence we find objectionable. The fact that he is just there, no matter what he does, leaves us with a look on our face akin to whenever we’re told vanilla ice cream is more popular than chocolate.

Brendan Smith will make $4.3 million this year to play NHL hockey. You, dear reader, will not. And believe us when we tell you that you aren’t that much less qualified to do so than he is.

Brendan Smith sucks. He has always sucked. And really, perhaps we should love him, because without his 2013 Game 6 Tour De What The Fuck in the 3rd period, the Hawks might not come back against the Wings that year. But thankfully, because Smith was wandering around his own zone like he got into the devil ether, the Hawks did. The highlight of course was keeping the Hawks onside for Bickell’s go-ahead goal.

But that’s always been Smith. And yet he keeps getting work. The Rangers gave up two high draft picks to acquire his services last year. And then they signed him to this deal for the next four years. Signing Brendan Smith to do anything for four years other than to clean the dressing room is a fireable offense, or at least it should be.

This is how much Red Wings glow still exists. Anyone with a handful of functioning neurons knows now that Ken Holland is actually an idiot who just happened to win the raffle a couple times with late-round picks and a wheelbarrow of Mike Illitch’s money. So any player that is a draft pick of that guy should come with huge scrutiny. But no, there are still a lot of GMs who think he must be a stud and the Wings just have too many good players for him to find the lineup.

Smith has no positioning. He has no ass. His passing is barely ok. Sure, he can skate, but who the fuck cares when it’s never in any specific direction? He’s a puck-moving defenseman who doesn’t move the puck or play defense. Great.

And if the Hawks can’t directly benefit from his presence anymore, then it’s just upsetting. Maybe the worst part of the Wings fleeing to the East was that the Hawks didn’t get a handful of points simply because Smith was out there performing in a chorus line only he could hear. Damn you, Red Wings.

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