Everything Else






Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

 

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Been stewing over this one since Friday night. It’s no secret that we are not huge fans of Eddie Olczyk’s analysis work here at the FFUD labs. While I’m tempted to give him a break this season due to his current health struggles and stop-start schedule, this particularly angle is one that demonstrates not just his shortcomings in the booth, but the inaccessibility of hockey coverage as a whole. I’m sure Eddie is having to put forth a huge effort just to get through a game these days, and I salute him for it. This is just a nugget in a much larger problem.

In the 3rd period of Friday’s loss to the Knights Who Say Vegas, Pat and Eddie began to discuss Connor Murphy. Of course, nowhere was it mentioned that Murphy has been the Hawks best d-man for about two months, which of course didn’t stop him from being scratched yesterday because TREE CUPZ. Anyway, they were discussing his transition to the Hawks and settling in with a new team.

During the discussion, at least twice and I think three times, Olczyk said, “The Hawks have a complicated system.” At no point did Eddie dare to explain what was so complicated about it, what was so different about it from the one Murphy played in Arizona, or what specifically Murphy struggled with at first. All we got was basically Lewis Black’s, “It’s really hard. Makes me wanna go poopy!”

This is the problem with hockey analysis everywhere. Either all analysts assume we’ll never understand, or they’re full of shit and they don’t really have any idea what they’re watching anyway. So how exactly is anyone supposed to learn anything about the game they’re watching and become more attached.

Here’s the thing, and Fifth Feather is fond of when we say this, but no hockey system is The Mike Martz Route Tree. There are differences with each team, but no one’s doing anything revolutionary here.

Maybe there’s more nuance to the Hawks’ tactics, but would it have been so hard for Olczyk to point out that the Hawks like to have their d-men step up at both blue lines whenever possible? That they rely on back pressure from the forwards to do that? That they’d rather cause turnovers in the neutral zone or in the offensive zone then force dump-ins to their own zone as a lot of teams, like the Coyotes, do? Would it have been so hard to explain that the Hawks want their d-men to be able to make that five-to-ten foot pass to a waiting center in front of their net when under pressure below the goal line and/or in the corner? Hawks fans have watched Keith, Seabrook (he did once, I swear), and Hjalmarsson make that play for about a decade now. Would it have been so impossible to explain that on breakouts, the Hawks like their d-men to hit a curling forward in between the circles, and on the move, and if that’s not there to use the forward on the boards who will then hit said curling forward out of the zone? If you’re talking to a Hawks audience, we’ve all seen that. And if you have a new fan, isn’t that something they’d want to watch for?

One of the problems hockey has in attracting new fans is that to a lot of them it just looks like a mad scramble. And if you’re watching the Hawks in their own zone this year, it really looks like a mad scramble. It could only help if everyone had a clearer idea of what teams and players are actually trying to do.

But you never get that. I’m not a huge NBA fan, though getting bigger, and yet I can tell you how Tom Thibodeau teams play a pick-n-roll or how the Warriors move the ball or how James Harden does what James Harden does. Because they take the time to tell you. Fuck, aren’t we all NFL experts on how to run an offense (except for Dowell Logains, of course)? Hockey doesn’t even give you the depth of knowledge that would allow you to know the difference between a 4-3 and 3-4 defense.

It would hardly kill NHL analysts to show us how maybe one team covers the front of the net with the weakside d-man for the most part, though some want both their d-men chasing the puck and cover the routes to the net with forwards.

Because there aren’t nearly the variables in how to run things in hockey as there are in other sports. Maybe that’s a lack of new ideas but it’s the reality.

And yet we just get, “It’s a complicated system.” Which basically hangs Murphy out to dry because barely anyone can understand what he’s trying to adjust to. Or could it be these guys just don’t know and take Q’s words for it? That might explain why Olczyk wasn’t much of a coach, though that can’t be it. Or at least all of it, for sure. Fuck, we knew why the Mike Martz Route Tree was so fucking hard because it took so long to develop and also nearly got Jay Cutler killed.

It just can’t be that hard to find someone who can do that. It’s not Olczyk, and it isn’t Pierre McGuire who I’m sure doesn’t know the difference because he’s too busy memorizing OHL stats from 1997. Which means less people will know what they’re watching, which means they’ll be less inclined to do so, and who does that help?

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Oilers 18-21-3    Hawks 19-15-6

PUCK DROP: 2pm

TV: WGN

ED-WOOD-TON: OilersNation.com

I don’t know who sanctioned a 2pm start, but they’re going to pay. Neither of these teams wants to be out during daylight hours right now. Hell, neither probably wants to be in public. Two teams that had designs on being a lot higher in the standings than they are will make it a lunch today on Madison St. Considering how things have gone for each team recently, a loss today is going to feel closer to terminal than it probably should. Though for the Oilers, it very well might be.

We’ll start with the Oilers, who have had maybe the biggest balls-up of a season this side of the Penguins. Since we last saw them last Friday, they’ve lost to the Jets, Kings, and Stars by a combined score of 15-1, while sneaking in a shootout victory over the Ducks in there. They’re below .500, miles out of a playoff spot, and really looking at the guillotine on this season very soon. They may even already be sellers, or should be, if you could find anyone on an expiring contract that anyone would want. The Chiarelli Panic Trade Countdown is getting awfully low.

It’s not hard to identify where things have gone wrong. One, Cam Talbot just plainly hasn’t been very good, and he’s been especially woeful on the penalty kill. That’s fed into their historically bad PK, which the power play isn’t making up for, and you can’t win games if you have to win at even-strength by two or three goals. It’s not all on Talbot for the penalty kill, however. The Oilers have the worst xGA/60 on the kill of anyone in the league and it isn’t even close. It’s over two goals worse per 60 than the team in 30th. That’s the same gap between 30th and 22nd. They just give up way too many good looks on the kill, and Talbot would have to perform miracles (MIRACLES!) to get through. He’s been quite the opposite, and hence you have this kindergarten recess.

On top of that, the Oilers just don’t have the finish to make their still-exemplary metrics count, as strange as that sounds. Yes, with Draisaitl now playing in the middle they might have the best center-depth in the West. Certainly in the Pacific. And yet with no wingers that you’d piss on if they were on fire, other than maybe Puljujarvi, it’s almost rendered useless. Run CMD can spin all the golden yarn he wants but if he’s waiting five seconds for Milan Lucic to catch up, who the fuck cares? This is a team where a suspension of Pat Maroon actually matters. You don’t want to be that team. Peter Kriss doesn’t even want to be that team.

All this has masked the fact that the defense has actually improved, though still isn’t Final-contender worthy which is where the Oilers had their eyes set before the year. Darnell Nurse has ascended to the top pairing, and you could get away with Adam Larsson there too if you had a really solid second pairing. Andrej Sekera and Matt Benning do not that pair make. Kris Russell is still watching the puck all the time on the third with KLEFBOM KLEFBOM YOU’RE MY KLEFBOM.

For the Hawks, Anton Forsberg will put a pause on the Glass Jeff Experience for a day, and the Hawks really need him to resign that to a footnote on this season. Forsberg has had his moments both ways, but he needs to grab the brass ring with Corey Crawford still in the land of wind and ghosts. There was no other word on lineup changes today, but you could see Jan Rutta come back in because he isn’t doing anyone any good in the pressbox. Then again, that’s the story for Michal Kempny and you know how that goes.

The Stars got their ass rubbed in the moonshine yesterday in Dallas, and Cam And Magic Talbot was pulled early in the 2nd. Whether he turns around or Chicago Rat Hockey Ragdoll Al Montoya gets the start, the Hawks are playing a severely wounded and shaken team here. The Oilers are basically looking for an excuse to down tools, and the Hawks have basically run out of time to get their ass in gear. The game against the Rangers would see this outfit off. A start like Friday’s will give them life. So the choice is simple.

 

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We make a lot of fun of Peter Chiarelli here… so let’s do it some more! One aspect of building a team these days that seems to get overlooked is a backup goalie. Teams really need to have one that they can trust with 20-25 starts, or get them out of a stretch if a starter were to get hurt, because the days of goalies being able to carry 75 starts and then four rounds of playoff wins are behind us. Quite simply, teams need to find a backup goalie who can “take the ball.”

The Oilers have ignored this, and now may have something of a multi-year problem on their hands. Unless the acquisition of Al “Some Guy In Bensenville Beat Him Like A Rented Goalie At Rat” Montoya works out gangbusters.

Cam Talbot started 73 games last year. And he was pretty good, with a .927 at evens and a .919 overall. Certainly better than the Oilers have gotten in net for a long time. But those 73 starts clearly took a toll, as Talbot’s SV% has dropped to .905 this year and .922 at evens, with his shorthanded mark falling off a cliff that fell off another cliff, from .874 last year to .800 this year.

It’s not a new phenomena, and some goalies have been able to handle that kind of workload for a few years. Talbot’s 73 starts were the 14th highest total in the past 10 years. The most were Martin Brodeur’s matching 77 starts in ’07-’08 and then ’09-’10. In the middle of those, Brodeur got hurt and missed 40 games, and he never approached a .920 SV% again. Then again, Brodeur was already in his mid-30s at this point, where Talbot is only 30 now.

Evgeni Nabokov started 71 games in ’09-’10 for the Sharks at 34 and was never the same. Ryan Miller made 76 appearances at 24 and was able to have excellent seasons after, but never made more than 69 appearances again after that. Mikka Kiprusoff made more than 70 appearances for the first time at age 29, much like Talbot, and again at 30, and then was terrible for two seasons before regaining form at 33, all while making 70+ appearances. Marty Turco made his first 70+ appearance season at 28, and then was awful the next season before rebounding for a couple more. Cam Ward made his only 70+ appearance season in 2011, and he’s never been the same.

Jonas Hiller, much like Talbot, took a while to wrestle a full-time starting gig of his own. He got it in ’11-’12 with the Ducks, made 73 starts at 29. He never started more than 50 games again and had only one more season of an above-average save-percentage after that. On the other side, Braden Holtby made 73 appearances three seasons ago, and then won a Vezina the next season. Jonathan Quick made 70+ appearances in 2015 at 29, missed all of last year, and is now once again have a plus-season.

So it goes both ways, but clearly handing someone around 30 that many starts when they haven’t consistently done it comes with great risk. And it’s just not something Cup-winners have done of late. Matt Murray played 49 games last year, and the year before that was a late-season call-up. Corey Crawford has never started more than 60 games. Jonathan Quick played 49 and 69 games in the Kings’ two Cup years. Tim Thomas played 57 games. Antti Niemi didn’t even become the starter until March. Marc-Andre Fleury made 57 starts.

The Oilers almost certainly don’t have to worry about this this year, as getting into the playoffs is going to be a minor miracle. But this is clearly something they’re going to need to figure out for next year.

 

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BaggedMilk is one of the freaks, very cold freaks, at OilersNation.com. Follow him on Twitter @SBMBaggedMilk. We asked him the same questions as we asked Scott Lewis last week. 

Let’s start with something nice and simple. Why do the Oilers blow chunks?
How much time do you have? The biggest problem (and it’s not close) is that their special teams are a complete and utter disaster. Their PK is on pace to be historically bad, and their power play would be about as effective if they all laid down on the ice and cried for two minutes. Neither of those things make any sense either because their special teams were decent last year, but that’s where we’re at. Happy day.
It seems like the Oilers are finally letting Draisaitl play center full-time. How do they solve their winger crisis? 
Find a better GM that actually knows what he’s doing in terms of evaluating NHL talent? Can I say that? I mean, the guy traded away virtually all of the scoring wingers on the roster to lay down bets on unproven players, so I don’t know how that problem can be rectified if Chiarelli is going to continuously shoot himself in the foot. The dude seems to love making his own job harder and the idea of him actually fixing a problem without creating another is almost a pipe dream.
What dumbass(es) are they going to end up trading Nugent-Hopkins for?
How dare you even put that out into the universe!? Shame on you. He’s just a child. But seriously, though, I’ve been calling the hopefully-never-gonna-but-probably-will-happen Nugent-Hopkins trade #OperationBrownBananas all season because you just know that if he does actually get moved that it will be for some plug like Cal Clutterbuck or some other corpse from Boston or any other equally annoying return. Why? Because Chiarelli loves cheap grit — That’s why. For some reason, Peter Chiarelli likes to trade skilled guys for bags of empties, and another blown one-for-one deal almost seems more like a foregone conclusion. All I can really hope for is that he either gets fired before doing something dumb or that someone takes his phone and throws it in the ocean because the Oilers are way better off with RNH in their lineup than without him.
Is Darnell Nurse closer to being the new Chris Pronger that we’ve always hoped he’d be?
Whoa, whoa, pump the breaks there, big fella. I’m a big Nurse guy too but I think that he’s still a few trips around the sun away from being anywhere close to Chris Pronger’s ballpark. That said, the guy has made some huge steps forward with his game, this season. He’s defending well, moves the puck effectively, and has played some big minutes. If he can keep progressing then the Oilers could have something special there, but they have to make sure to have some patience with him. Right now, he’s able to handle the tough minutes with no real pressure but if the Oilers dump a truckload of expectations on him then he could be the next Justin Schultz that crumbles under the pressure here only to flourish somewhere else. I have high hopes for Darnell Nurse, but it’s also going to take some time to get there.
The Oilers are eight points out of a playoff spot? Could they save themselves?
I’d donate a nut to the cause if meant the Oilers could make up those extra points. The honest answer is that I have no idea. There are games when the Oilers look like world beaters and others when they look like a team that should be relegated. When the Oilers are on their game, they can be very good. When they’re not, then we all pray that Connor can save us. So can they make the playoffs? Yes, they can. The real question is whether or not they can keep their heads out of their asses consistently enough to make that happen.

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We here at FFUD Headquarters are a progressive bunch, or at least we’d like to think so. We think most traditions should be looked at if not outright eliminated. Just because you’ve always done something one way is not a reason to keep doing it if there’s a better way. Especially in hockey, where everything is grounded in Canadian backwoods mythology.

So we’re all for player numbers being more than just 1-35. But the Oilers have way too many fucking stupid numbers.

Look at these things. #91? Who the fuck are you, Drake Caggiula? You don’t get an identifying number. If you’re going above 80, you better know what the fuck you’re doing. 93? No wonder Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is overrated. His number doesn’t make any sense.

97? Yes, you may be the best player in the league Run CMD, but do you really want to wear the number that Jeremy Roenick wore when he got fat and shitty? 98? Even football players who wear 98 tend to be terrible, Jesse Puljujarvi. That’s a dumb hockey number that takes up too much space.

58? Only middle relievers wear 58, Anton Slepyshev! And who are you, anyway?

Yohan Auvitu, you do not get to wear #81. #81 is sleek and cool and intimidating. Marian Hossa gets to wear that. Tim Brown gets to wear that. Night Train Lane gets to wear that. You do not, whoever you are.

EIGHTY-THREE?! That’s stupid and clunky and so are you Matt Benning. You’re not Flipper Anderson! You’re not Willie Gault! Fuck you!

Brandon Davidson you don’t get #88. You have to be someone we can pick out of a lineup, sometimes literally, to wear that. Kiss our ass and call it a love story!

This is not like the Canadiens, where they have retired so many numbers that current players have to pick dumb numbers. Only seven have retired their numbers, and for some reason Glenn Anderson is one of them. There’s plenty to go around. RNH you wear #18 now. The rest of you… who cares? McDavid you wear 10. Messi wears 10. Great players wear 10. 97 looks silly.

Let Milan Lucic wear a stupid number, because he’s stupid. Put 57 on Patrick Maroon to match his clumsiness and uselessness. This has gone on long enough.

 

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All stats at even-strength except where noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey.

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

 

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Corsica 

You can tell how far the attention to the Hawks has fallen, as we didn’t get a flurry of stories like we used to about how hard the first home game after a long road trip is. And the Hawks showed you why tonight. They were sloppy when they weren’t lazy when they weren’t stupid. And that extends behind the bench too, but we’ll save that for later. Even with a Knights team that played last night, they still play a team-wide “NO ONE BELIEVED IN US” card and are going to work hard and be fast. When the Hawks wanted to work hard and be fast, they had the Knights pinned. When they didn’t, they were paste. And then somewhere in between Q’s hunch in net gave up two goals you can’t let in. Good stuff here.

To it!

The Two Obs

-I get it with this Vegas team now. They’re fast up and down the lineup, and Gallant has them playing incredibly hard every minute. This will boomerang on them at some point when their opponents start to get more desperate (or stop watching the sun rise at the Mirage), but it’s working a trick now. This is Scott Skiles’s Bulls. As the SinBin Vegas guys pointed out in our Q&A, the Knights aren’t reinventing the wheel here. They have a fast team, so they’re just going to get the puck up the ice as fast as they can. Much like the Predators last year, their games can look frantic and up and down but not necessarily fluid. They’re not all that concerned if passes don’t connect as long as the puck is moving the right way. The Hawks on the other hand, at first, wanted to play their game which involves more precision. But when the Knights raise the temperature on it, it becomes very hard to play that way even for the most talent-laden teams. Which the Hawks are not.

When the Hawks just decided to do what the Knights did, get up the ice in a direct fashion and leave the style for later, they had the game.

-So that brings us to Jeff Glass. I’m gonna hear all about 38 saves and this and that. Once again, Glass makes some of his own problems. He can’t control a rebound to save his life. He’s a pitch-back. He can’t track the puck well, and has to rely on his athleticism to make up for it (which it is most of the time). And that panic spreads to his team, who are not calmly moving the puck out of the zone but whacking at it like it was a wasp that got in the house. It goes hand in hand.

While Glass certainly made some great saves, when the Hawks pulled within 2-1 that third Vegas goal can’t happen. Yes, Seabrook went for a wander for no reason and left another 2-on-1. Yes, he whiffed on the rebound. But Glass took forever to get back to his net because he’s relying on his athleticism to make saves and challenge. You gotta have that save.

Whether Forsling screened him on the equalizer in the third is debatable. Still, that’s Cody Eakin backing up near the blue line that beats him clean. Again, you have to have that save after you’ve come back from two goals down twice and taken the lead. Enough of this shit.

-That said, he didn’t get much help because once again the Hawks forward and d-men played as if they spoke different languages or played different sports. When d-men pinched, there was no forward to cover. When there wasn’t a pinch on, the Hawks d-men did anyway. The forwards broke out of the zone far too early for breakouts. This was October shit.

For the winner, Connor Murphy can’t pinch in there. But where the hell was Seabrook going? Schmaltz was fighting through two guys in the left corner. How was he going to thread a pass to Seabrook breaking to the net on the other side of the ice? Maybe Murphy just thought there was no way in hell his partner would do that. He should know better by now.

-Seabrook was awful all night, Keith wasn’t much better, and why the fuck Franson was out there at all I can’t figure out. Vegas is a fast, fast, fast team. So let’s dress possibly our slowest and defensively helpless d-man. Franson gives up a penalty three minutes in because he gets scorched to the outside in a “THIS JUST IN TOMORROW’S SATURDAY” level of shock, and the Knights score directly after that. That said, Franson did have the highest Corsi on the night. THAT said, he was on the ice for one defensive zone draw.

-The first period shot totals were U-G-L-Y, and a whole host of them came with Top Cat-Schmaltz-Kane on the ice on one shift. That line can’t battle its way out of the zone due to its size (or give a shit in Kane’s case tonight), so it has to pick and pass its way. But with the Knights buzzing around as they do, that’s not going to work. And you get what you got.

-I don’t know if Vinnie Hinostroza is any good. But he’s fast, and on a wing he plays in a straight line and opens up things for Toews and Saad so let’s just stick with it for now and worry about logic later.

Time keeps slipping away. There is ground to be made up with all these home games and the Hawks just pissed away one because they were disjointed, uninterested for too long, and their coach was too hunch-y. Feels like a familiar tale.