Sam Fels – Page 210 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Game #39 – Hawks vs. Rangers: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 3, 2018 1905 0

All metrics at even-strength. Info courtesy of Corsica.hockey and HockeyDB.com.

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Spotlight

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – January 2nd

By Sam Fels January 2, 2018 1364 0

First Screen Viewing

Lighting vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

Big night on the slate, and there’s a couple “top of the table” clashes for you. This one in the T.O. has two of the three teams in the East that matter, and that’s if I’m being kind and say the Bruins matter. Not sure anyone in the Metro does either. Anyway, the Lightning are torching the league so they don’t have much to play for. The Leafs are 10 points behind the Bolts, so they’re not catching them in this world. But this is still two teams with tons of firepower and coaches that aren’t morons–even if one of them routinely tastes his own spunk to check for flavor and viscosity. And we can count on the Toronto media to make way too much of this result, especially if the Leafs get trounced.

Second Screen Viewing

Predators vs. Knights – 9pm

At this point, the NHL should have to explain why an expansion team is partaking in a “big game” halfway through the season. Doesn’t really speak to overall quality when a team thrown together with bit parts, stickum, and some hobos can lead a division. But here we are. The best team in the Central, and probably West, seeing if they can get through this Vegas Flu thing. And while we’re on the subject, if it’s truly a matter that NHL players can’t actually resist going out in Vegas until 4am the night before every game, wouldn’t that make them the most unprofessional group ever? Seriously, keep it together and in your pants for one night.

Other Games

Bruins vs. Islanders – 6pm

Penguins vs. Flyers – 6pm

Capitals vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

Sharks vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Devils vs. Blues – 7pm

Panthers vs. Wild – 7pm

Blue Jackets vs. Stars – 7:30

Jets vs. Avalanche – 8pm

Kings vs. Oilers – 8:30

Ducks vs.Canucks – 9pm

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Game #38 – Hawks vs. Flames Preview/Seaweed Facial: Goodbye ’17, You Know What I Mean

By Sam Fels December 31, 2017 2401 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 18-14-5 Flames 18-16-4

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: WGN

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY: Flames Nation

The Hawks will close out 2017 in southern Alberta, because honestly where would you rather be, and for the most part 2017 has been a year the Hawks and their fans won’t shed any tears over. It started back with some brilliant hockey in the middle of last season, but ended with a humbling, if not downright humiliating, playoff defeat and a stop-start half season to this one. Things have to get better when the calendar turns, that’s for sure.

What they’ll find is a Flames team that is just about as weird and stop-start as they have been. Before the season, looking at the Flames top four and at least their top two lines, you thought if Mike Smith could at least be competent (a big ask) they should challenge for the top of the Pacific. And the thing is, Mike Smith has mostly been competent. His backups have been anything but, but Smith has been ok. And yet the Flames still find themselves complaining that the goggles do nothing.

It’s been more than one problem for them. For one, that top four hasn’t been THE TOP FOUR you would have expected, at least not until of late. Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton (a grown man named “Dougie”) have been beyond excellent, but for the first two months T.J. Brodie and newly-acquired Travis Hamonic couldn’t find the A-button on a Nintendo controller. They’ve somewhat regulated of late, but it hasn’t been the bread and roses Flames fans hoped for.

Secondly, the Flames have been especially agoraphobic in front of the net — i.e. terrified of putting the puck in an open space. They can’t score. Both on the power play and at evens, they have some of the lowest shooting percentages in the league. Their underlying numbers are where you want them to be, they should be scoring more, and yet they’re putting it everywhere except where it should go like it was post-prom.

Combine that with Jaromir Jagr being hurt and old and thus unable to give the Flames a representative third line, and you see the problems. He’s moved to replace Michael Frolik on the 3M line now that our beloved Fro’s bottom jaw is currently a jigsaw puzzle. A couple promising kids in Jankowski and Bennett are trying to give the Flames a third option at the moment.

Still, with Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland and the 3M line that’s more than a lot of teams have. And the Flames are going to have to find another option because Smith’s numbers have declined as the season has gone on. Odd for a goalie who is 35, I know. And we still aren’t really sure if head coach Glen Gulutzan Glenross is a Moron or Not A Moron.

As for the Hawks, the lineup will remain the same as it was on Friday, including Jeff Glass in hs hometown. Again, this is a great story but asking for more than what you’ve already got from him seems an awfully big risk. On another night, with that rebound control, Glass could have given up a touchdown. He might not be so lucky tonight, and Anton Forsberg has not been bad outside of a couple of ugly outings. Vancouver certainly had nothing to do with him, so what are you doing to his confidence? He’s clearly the more important of the two going forward.

But hey, we get more Kempny and we get more of that intriguing third line with the three kids. So let’s not head into the new year bitching that much.

The Flames and Hawks are going to be competing for the same wild card spots, or at least that’s how it looks. So these two points are going to matter when we total it all up in April. After biffing Vancouver hardcore, the Hawks simply can’t here.

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Game #38 – Hawks vs. Flames: Spotlight – Mikael Backlund F**CKS

By Sam Fels December 31, 2017 1984 0

We occasionally like to spend time discussing what the Selke, and Norris, award would really look like if voters didn’t used outdated methods to find their winners. Of course, this is all pie in the sky stuff. Hockey and “evolution” are infrequent dance partners. Perhaps one day we’ll get our King-Felix-wins-Cy-Young-with-13-wins moment, but it seems unlikely.

If it were to happen, Mikael Backlund may be the one who wins it.

For too long, coaches of the Flames were too fixated on what Backlund couldn’t or didn’t do. As a first round pick, he was (perhaps rightly) expected to be a #1 center who scored a ton. It wasn’t Backlund’s fault that until the arrival of Sean Monahan, there really wasn’t anyone else around to do the job. So it was foisted upon him at time, and it didn’t go so well. Backlund’s first six full seasons in the NHL never saw him amass 50 points, as well as deal with some serious injury issues. It looked to be that he was a bust.

It took the arrival of Bob Hartley, himself hardly a genius, and further expounded upon by current coach Glen Gulutzan Glenross to really unlock what Backlund is. And that’s one of the league’s best checking/possession centers.

If you’ve been tuning into hockey for the past couple seasons, you’ve probably heard all about the 3M like of Backlund, Michael Frolik, and Matthew Tkachuk. They have been the biggest human shield line in the league. The Flames routinely send this unit out in its own end and against the toughest competition, and they routinely send the play the other way. Over the past three seasons, Backlund is fifth in the league in his relative Corsi. But of all the other players in the top ten, Backlund and his linemates get by far the worst zone starts, barely getting 40% of their shifts to start in the offensive zone. They have the biggest hills to climb, and they climb farther than just about anyone else.

Backlund has also added a scoring touch he didn’t have before. He put up 53 points last year and is on pace to break 50 again this year, with a bit of hustling.

This is the type of player more GMs should be seeking out, or converting underperforming centers to be. When most hockey minds think of a checking center, it’s some mattress like body that wins a lot of draws, blocks a lot of shots, but essentially is a trench for their team. Yes, they’re hard to pass but they’re also hard to move forward off of. Backlund is in the Marcus Kruger school. And there are others out there who could play this role.

Of course, some of this might be a problem for the Flames in the summer, as Backlund goes UFA. At 28, it’ll be his best chance to cash in long-term, and the Flames aren’t swimming in cap space .They can probably hand him most of Matt Stajan’s money that’s coming off the books and think that’s enough, but do they pay him as the #2-3 center that he is? Or the unicorn that he actually is? It’s a decision that’s going to be generating a lot of debate in Calgary, between cleaning the horseshit out of everyone’s boots.

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Game #38 – Hawks vs. Flames: Q&A With A Drunken Rodeo Clown

By Sam Fels December 31, 2017 2319 0

We don’t know what it is Mike Pfeil does. He claims he works at Hockey-graphs.com but we’re pretty sure that’s a front. We do know he lives in Edmonton, we’re sure we don’t know why, and we’re more sure he doesn’t know why either. Anyway, he’s a Flames guy, further proving just how lost he is as a human. But he found the time to answer our questions, which doesn’t say much for him either.

It’s been a disappointing first half for the Flames. What has been the problem(s)?

Luck, the lack of stolen vaccines from the provincial government, and some roster/usage issues. Hitting post, after post, after post is exhausting; Mike Smith letting in some weirdo goals (that he’s known for) can be tiresome; a lackluster power play at times; a penalty kill that cratered (and made my PK project difficult); and some awful roster management have been factors. All that said I put more stock on the lack of stolen vaccines being provided.

Did moving to Calgary give Travis Hamonic brain worms?

Are we so sure he didn’t get them while he was in Long Island? I’m pretty sure most drinking water in New York state is contaminated given the cretins that exist out there. He’s also from Manitoba originally and that place has lots of mosquitoes so maybe they laid mosquitoes in his brain, too.

He’s getting better though and I think “adjustment” period of playing with a guy like TJ Brodie has been hard. Brodie loves to skate and jump up in the rush while Hamonic prefers more conservative means to being involved. Part of the improvements have come from Gulutzan’s deployment of the pairing (more on-the-fly usage versus actual zone starts) which has helped immensely. Plus you know hockey terms like poise, confidence, composure, tenacity, pugnacity, all the nacities, and his shaft is firm.

Jaromir Jagr, seven points in 19 games. One goal. Can you believe signing someone closer to 50 than 40 hasn’t worked out for the Flames?

Injuries, no training camp, and playing along side Hawk alumni member Troy Brouwer will do a number on your counting stats. Still, I’m worried that a gust will break his hip and we’ll have to send him to the nursing home up north. From a fan perspective – whatever is left of that in me – I want him to succeed, but the cold number-loving analyst has made me question whether or not it’s best to play him every night he is available.

Every time we watch the Flames the broadcast mentions how much they miss Kris Versteeg. That can’t really be true, can it?

It’s tricky because on one hand I love the dude, but it’s a bit of a media-driven narrative. From a locker room/glue guy/intangibles angle yeah he’s missed. The tangible aspect he brings was from a power play perspect; Dave Cameron and Gulutzan used him on the first unit as a zone entry guy and half-wall option in the 1-3-1. He’s nowhere close to where he was last season or even during his prime but he has value even if he’s fast approaching Martin “Pelvic Mesh Imploding” Havlat territory.

Why is Matthew Tkachuk such a shithead? Typical rich kid stuff? Or did Dad teach him “well?”

He’s the equivalent of the Dreaded Laramie from the Clickhole quiz “Which One Of My Garbage Sons Are You?” He’s out on the ice yelling “Saab demolition” at every opposing player and spray-painting ISIS on their cars. There’s definitely that reputation established, but every team wants someone like him. Tkachuk is really fantastic blend of shit heel antics and legitimate hockey skill — anyone who tells you he’s a passenger on the 3M line is a cop. If he keeps it up and his point production continues to improve he could be a top-end winger in this league.

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Game #38 – Hawks vs. Flames: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels December 31, 2017 1740 0

All stats at even strength except where noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey.

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Game #38 – Hawks vs. Flames: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels December 31, 2017 1609 0

Info courtesy of Corsica.hockey and HockeyDb.com.

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Game #37 – Hawks 3 – Oilers 3 (Hawks win Quarters): They Don’t All Have To Hang In The Louvre

By Sam Fels December 30, 2017 1977 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

So no need to intro this. Shared a few thoughts on Twitter last night so a couple new ones and expounding on what we talked about before. Sorry for the delay. Technology is not my friend.

-We bitched about Duncan Keith’s lackluster effort on Thursday in Vancouver. And apparently he wasn’t pleased with it either, or got the message that his coaches weren’t. However, Duncan Keith trying to do everything is only slightly better than Duncan Keith doing nothing. He makes things happen, like Top Cat’s power play goal by standing up at the blue line that was vintage Keith. He also leaves his partner out to dry a few times. Or he doesn’t make the simple play like in the last minute when he was a foot from the red line and could have just dumped the puck into the Oilers’ zone.

You can see the thinking. If Keith can successfully cycle back into his own zone and hold onto the puck they kill more time. But it could also lead to what it did, which is a scramble, a turnover, and then a goal you can’t give up.

Keith has been put in a tough spot all year, as the only player that can play with him and allow him to do all the things he’s done is Connor Murphy, and that would frontload the defense too much. So he’s having to make up for all sorts of deficiencies. And I guess we’d rather have the super locked in and super hyper Keith than the one that’s just kind of there.

-I guess I could warm up to Jordan Oesterle’s “KEEP FIRING, ASSHOLES!” approach to the game in the offensive end. The Hawks lack any sort of threat from back there now that Seabrook can’t move and Forsling is usually in quicksand in his own end. And Oesterle usually gets his shot through. It would be better served on a third pairing. But then again, we can say that of six of the eight d-men on the Hawks right now.

-Michal Kempny once again had a 60+% Corsi. I’m sure he’ll sit on Sunday so we can see more of Cody Franson pinching in the neutral zone to a puck he won’t get within five feet of.

-As I said last night, I’m sure a lot of people expect me to point out that Jeff Glass’s rebound control was awful. Or that he lost his net too many times. Or that his glove seemed to be made of superballs. But let’s leave that aside. At the age of 32, he won his first NHL start. He spent seven years in Russia for this. Sometimes, it’s just a good story.And this one is. There’s certainly a place for it, and it’s one of the big reasons we love sports. Let’s just hope the coach doesn’t fall in love with it.

-That said, in the pregame they had a clip of Q’s pregame presser where he said he hoped that it would cause a spark and the team to rally. Clearly he wasn’t thrilled with the team’s effort in games this year. But I don’t think he’s talking to the kids. Forsling’s problem isn’t he isn’t playing hard enough. Neither is it Rutta’s. Certainly not Schmaltz’s or Top Cat’s. So where do you think that was aimed?

-Still, Q didn’t do Glass or his team any favors again. Three times in just the 1st period, he sent Schmaltz out for a defensive zone draw. You know McDavid is coming out for those. Yeah, sometimes the rotations don’t leave you much choice. But two of these were after TV timeouts. Is that a matchup you really want? Thankfully it didn’t result in any goals.

Anyway, onwards…

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Game #37 – Hawks vs. Oilers: Spotlight – The Nurseman

By Sam Fels December 29, 2017 1969 0

There probably isn’t a non-Hawk we’ve watched closer than Darnell Nurse the past three years. We were smitten when seeing him on the ’15 Canadian junior team. He was big, he was fast, he played as if someone just broke into his car. He had skills, too. We have had too many trade proposals in our head to get him to Chicago, and far too many of them involved Brent Seabrook to think we aren’t completely delusional. Yes, we do think Peter Chiarelli is that stupid.

Still the first two years of his career, Nurse didn’t quite pop. There were flashes, but the blue line was the weakness of the Oilers and the glaring sign of “Under Repair.” But as we know, it takes young d-men some time to learn the NHL game. The benchmark is usually 200 games. It doesn’t always have to be that way.

It might just be that Nurse needed 103 games. Or maybe last year’s playoff run showed what he needs to do. Either way, the hellbeast we always envisioned might be on display now.

Nurse has simply killed the competition this year. He has a 54.8 CF%, which puts him nearly four percent above the team-rate. He has a 56% xGF%, which puts him 4.5 points over the team-rate. Most impressively, as Nurse has taken more and more minutes, he’s lowered the amount of attempts again, he’s seriously lowered the amount of shots against, and the big leap is in the types of chances he’s allowing to be aimed at Cam Talbot (because the Oilers backup goalie is an actual husky). Last year his xGA/60 was 2.65, and this year it’s 1.97. Nurse sees only about half his zone starts in the offensive end, and has been taking on the toughest competition for the Oilers all season.

Perhaps most impressive is that Nurse has done this while dragging around some real deep-frier-runoff as his partner. Most of his season has been with Adam Larsson, who is the very definition of “fine.” Away from Nurse, Larsson’s rates–Corsi, Fenwick, scoring-chances, whatever–all fall somewhere between 5-10%. Lately, Nurse has been skating with Russell, the most ear-flush partner you can get. All of Russell’s rates drop 10% or more when away from Nurse. He is the tonic for this team, and could set the blue line to be just fine for a while.

That will be something of a challenge for the Oilers, of course. Nurse’s entry-level deal is up after this year, and the Oilers only have somewhere between $15-$20 million, depending on what the cap does after this season, to sign somewhere around 10 players. That’s thanks to Run CMD’s extension and Draisaitl’s as well. It can be done, especially if they fill some gaps with other kids, but they’re going to have hold down Nurse’s new contract number.

Whatever Nurse wants, the Oilers shouldn’t hesitate. They have a real #1 d-man in the making here, and it doesn’t take much more. The Kings got two Cups because of Drew Doughty turning Jake Muzzin into something useful and like one other second pairing guy. The Penguins barely had a #1 d-man. The Lightning have Victor Hedman, two second pairing guys in Stralman and Sergachev, and that’s it. Perhaps no position makes more of a difference than having a true #1 d-man who can just punt the play up the ice every time he’s on the ice.

Nurse might not ever be a huge offensive contributor, but he doesn’t have to be if his feet and defense simply get the puck up to McDavid and Draisaitl quickly and let them go. He could rack up points the way Duncan Keith did, standing up at his line, creating turnovers there, and getting the puck up to his forwards ASAP. The Oilers have others who can score from there.

This season may have been a downer so far for EdMo. But this is the biggest highlight so far.

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