Sam Fels – Page 161 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #9 – Ducks vs. Hawks Spotlight: Get Him A Body Bag!

By Sam Fels October 23, 2018 1627 0

We should say there’s always a caveat this early in the season. The Ducks have only played nine games. But if trends continue as they have begun for Anaheim, they might be one of the worst possession-teams the league has seen in some time. Which makes one wonder if John Gibson realizes just how much power he wields over the organization. He is the only reason they’ve won a game. If the Ducks are even average this year, with the way things are going, it’ll be because of Gibson. So if you’re Randy Carlyle, you’d better start buying all sorts of dinners, gifts, and free contractors for the house you’re going to build for him, if you want to keep your job. Because Gibson could send Carlyle to CV-writing with a snap of his fingers.

Randy Carlyle is an idiot, but so far this year he has put together a simply exquisite buffet of terrible hockey for the Anaheim fans to enjoy (not that they’d know the difference). Let’s review: The Ducks have a team-wide 41.1 CF%. That’s last in the league by a full point, behind such luminaries as the Islanders, Canucks, and Senators. Their expected-goals percentage, and you really want to take a breath or two before reading on here, is 36.9%. That starts with a “3,” That’s a full five points behind the 30th-placed team, which just so happens to be the Hawks. Just for a frame of reference, no team has finished a season with a mark below 40%. So if the Ducks want to make history, they’ll just have to stay on their current course.

The only team giving up more shots on goal than the Ducks at evens is the Hawks, and they have one period to thank for that. And where Joel Quenneville could point to a list of his d-men and quite rightly ask, “Just what the fuck do you want me to do with that?,” Carlyle has no such outs.

This is a team with Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler, Josh Manson, and Brandon Montour on its top four. Ok, the forwards have been without Jakob Silfverberg, Nick Ritchie, and Ondrej Kase due to injury. Don’t you dare mention Corey Perry’s aged and poisoned ass when talking about team speed. His feet went out the door two years ago. But still, Andrew Cogliano, Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique, and Sam Steel are around. This isn’t a team bereft of speed.

So why is it playing like an overturned meat truck? They have d-men that can get themselves up the ice. They have forwards that can chase down the puck. And it’s all not working at all. They continue to dump the puck in in a league where most teams have d-men who are just going to turn around and skate away from you. Their d-men don’t stand up at the line even though they have recovery speed everywhere. And no one can seem to spell “breakout” much less complete one.

Carlyle was an idiotic, old-boys hire from the get-go. This is how insular the NHL had gotten, as GM Bob Murray didn’t just go to the Old Boys’ Club for a coach after turfing Bruce Boudreau and his allergies to home Game 7s, he went back to the coach they’d already kicked out. Did he just walk out to the parking lot and find Carlyle wandering around aimlessly kicking pebbles and looking like he had nowhere to go? Hiring him for the coaching job in the same fashion as you would adopt a lost dog actually makes the most sense.

The Ducks “success” under Carlyle basically amounts to Cam Talbot dying of exhaustion in the ’17 playoffs. They were crushed by the Sharks last year, signaling that things had to pivot from where they were. They clearly haven’t.

Gibson might keep Carlyle in a job all season, if he sees fit. Maybe the returning forwards will provide more pop. But clearly this is a ship that’s got a ton of holes in it, and the water level is rising.

Game #9 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #9 – Ducks vs. Hawks Q&A: Longtime Gal Jen Neale

By Sam Fels October 23, 2018 1601 0

Jen Neale has been doing this for us whenever the Ducks are around for close to 10 years. She really deserves better. Follow her @MsJenNeale.

The Ducks sit atop the Pacific at this early stage. Also, every metric says they’ve been getting wailed on every night and should basically be winless. Which is the truth?

They’re absolutely getting wailed on each night and I think it’s finally starting to catch up with them now that there’s tape to study. Nobody knew what to make of this team because of all the injuries and the unknown names in the roster.

Is this the year John Gibson is a Vezina finalist? Is it going to have to be if the Ducks are to have any hope?

Ughhh. John Gibson is the bane of my Ducks existence. He signed a massive eight-year contract in the off-season and is putting up a good start. The thing is his play style is unsustainable from a health standpoint. He’s going to have a stellar first half and then probably end up missing 20+ games over the second half of the season. By the time he’s “ready for the playoffs” the Ducks are on the brink of elimination and relying on old man Ryan Miller. It’s the same story every year. Sigh. I still miss Frederik Andersen. ANYHOO, the Ducks will make the playoffs regardless of Gibson and get bounced in the first round because of Gibson.

There’s a couple kids in the lineup these days in Sam Steel and Kiefer Sherwood (who needs a new name). Real reasons to get excited? Anyone we missed?

This season is the culmination of Randy Carlyle’s worst nightmare. He doesn’t have an enforcer in the lineup, he’s been mandated to play fast, not the grind style he’s always done, and he HAS to play a lineup full of rookies because of injuries. Kesler has the hips of a 90-year-old, Getzlaf is a perpetual lower-body injury, Perry will be out at least five months with a torn MCL, and Jakob Silfverberg is out with a non-displaced fracture in his hand. It’s like Adam Henrique and the Electric Mayhem out there. (That doesn’t even make sense. I just wanted to write it.)

Kiefer Sherwood is a great name. So is Sam Steel. I’m enjoying watching Maxime Comtois, also a great name, a physical kid with a great shot. There are about 394283907842 rookies in the lineup but those three are tops right now.

The Ducks have a ton of young d-men and some young forwards who at least look useful. They don’t need a total rebuild given what’s already here. But do they have the forwards to take the responsibilities off Kesler, Perry, and Getzlaf and eventually pivot from them? A rebuild on the fly, if you will.

Rebuild on the fly is the Ducks style. I give Perry, Getzlaf and Kesler two years max before they just give up and only show up to collect checks. The saving grace is Martin Madden and the Ducks amateur scouting department. The Ducks have given away more talent (Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, et. al) than most teams in the league. Since they’ve spent the last two, maybe three, drafts picking up more forwards and we’re starting to finally see them emerge from junior. I like what Dallas Eakins is doing with the Ducklings down in San Diego and feel good about them eventually filling out the lineup with Rickard Rakell, Silfverberg, Henrique and the rest of the Electric Mayhem.

Game #9 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #9 – Ducks vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: I Hate Paul Kariya

By Sam Fels October 23, 2018 1806 0

I never said these things had to be rational.

Paul Kariya was a wonderful player. He ended up with over 400 goals and just short of 1000 points in his career. He perhaps played in the wrong era. If he played now, his speed would have been right in line with how the league is going and he would have been better protected from the hits and concussions that derailed his career. His post-playing life has been rough at times, which he’s been open about. He’s a cautionary tale. Certainly, there were few players more devastating when fully healthy and at full dial.

And I couldn’t stand him.

Maybe it was because the Hawks never had a player like him back then. They wouldn’t have seen past his size and ignored his game-breaking speed. Maybe it was because he had Matt Duchene’s face before Matt Duchene. Maybe it was the way he ran from trouble.

Or maybe it was this: When the Blues unveiled those third jerseys back in 2009, they had those tie-strings at the collar. Kariya came on stage with his wrapped in a neat little bow. Now, there’s nothing wrong with tying those strings into a bow. Except that you don’t. No one does. It looks ridiculous. And yet it seemed perfectly in character with Kariya the player.

Maybe it was he was just another annoying winger when the Predators first got good after the lockout and were routinely pummeling the Hawks, with Erat, Sullivan, Hartnell, Arnott, and three or four other ass-rashes. Maybe it was he and Teemu Selanne’s blood-pact that went balls-up in Colorado.

Maybe it’s all of it. Anyway, Kariya had his #9 retired on Sunday night, as he should have in Anaheim. But it was yet another chance for my blood to boil at the sight of that smile, that always-perfect hair, one I saw far too much as is streaked by Eric Fucking Weinrich again.

It doesn’t have to make sense. Fuck Paul Kariya.

Game #9 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #9 – Ducks vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels October 23, 2018 1348 0

Game #9 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #9 – Ducks vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels October 23, 2018 1709 0

\

Game #9 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile – Week #3

By Sam Fels October 22, 2018 1950 0

I guess that’s what you’d call the first speed bump of the season. If that speed bump came to life and chomped on your skull for like an hour while you just sat there contemplating the meaninglessness of it all. At least that was last night. It saw the Hawks suffer their first two regulation losses of the season. Though it did include their first regulation win. So yeah…this season is weird. Anyway, let’s see what was bad, what was good, and what was right where it should be.

The Dizzying Highs

Alex DeBrincat – Able to remain above the fray, and I feel like we’re going to say that for most of the season. Set up the only goal they got against the Coyotes, scored against the Jackets to put the Hawks ahead (admittedly one Bobrovsky should have had, but the hands and quickness to get to that spot and get that shot off after a middling pass from Kahun was worthy or reward). Top Cat’s scoring-streak came to a stop last night, as did any illusion about this team, but he was still the Hawks best skater this week and has been all season. I also love the added bonus of scouts and pundits trying to wheel-pose themselves to cover their ass for not thinking or making him a first-round pick because he happens to be small in a league that’s getting more and more away from size.

Oh hey, the only three players who have outscored Top Cat from that draft are Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Matthew Tkachuk, and all have played a season more than he has. Everyone can go pound.

The Terrifying Lows

The Entire Defense – Boy, this is going to be the subject of several posts this week I feel, and certainly the subject of this week’s podcast (recording tonight, send in your questions!). The Hawks were basically mullered for both games on the weekend, and had Corey Crawford to thank for any points they got let alone the two they did. Cam Ward had the unusual feat of giving up five goals and still maintaining a 900 SV% last night. I’m not even sure how mad you can get about the actual players, because they are what they are and have been. Duncan Keith is old. Henri Jokiharju‘s balls haven’t dropped, at least in a hockey sense. Jan Rutta, Brandon Manning, and Brandon Davidson (at this point we should just call them, “Davidson Manning” because really what the fuck does it matter?) are big bags of suck. Seabrook is old too, and Gustafsson is a cowboy. There really are no surprises here.

No, the anger should be at a front office that thought this was an acceptable defensive corps to toss out there with a straight face and still run your “One Goal” ads about a revival season coming (while knowing Connor Murphy was going to miss two months!), and a coach who is still insistent on a defensive and breakout system this group has no hope of being able to run. And really, it won’t work in this league any more. The Hawks coach needs to adjust his system to his players, not the other way around. Until that happens, nights like Sunday are not going to be isolated incidents. You’ll be reading a lot more about this in the coming days.

The Creamy Middles

Corey Crawford – It may seem harsh to not put Crow in the “Dizzying Highs” category. Because he was really good in both of this games this week. But here’s the thing: Corey Crawford is really good. Vezina-worthy performances don’t really surprise me, because he’s a Vezina-worthy goalie. Sure, the fact that they came after 10 months out is startling, and unexpected. But the actual games themselves are what Crow has been serving up for four or five seasons now. Maybe having gone without him so long people will realize just what he means to this team while he can still do it. The Hawks can put Toews and Kane on their marketing drive all they want. The player whose importance to his team rises to the level of Bryant, Rizzo, Mack, Trubisky, Eloy is Crawford. That’s just how it be, kids.

Everything Else

Game #8 – Lightning vs. Hawks Spotlight: Stevie Why?

By Sam Fels October 21, 2018 1480 0

The obvious answer is that Steve Yzerman stepped down as Lightning GM because he got some assurance from somewhere or someone that Detroit is finally going to euthanize the increasingly hockey-senile Ken Holland and return the conquering hero. That and to be closer to where he actually lives, of course. This will be Caesar through the arch shit. And perhaps with the Wings being so bad and having a good look at the #1 pick and hometown boy Jack Hughes–and certainly the NHL would never rig such a thing for a franchise they’ve been wheel-posing for for decades–maybe Yzerman thinks he’s already got a leg up in bringing the Wings back to “Scum” status.

Still, it’s hard to see why you’d so quickly walk away from the Lightning, given what he’s built and what’s on the horizon.

Perhaps the most amazing thing about the Lightning is that the “Cap-ocalypse” that was supped to ravage their roster never materialized. The Lightning haven’t really had to lose anyone. Sure, he was able to use the lack of state income tax to his advantage and keep the cap hits for Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov lower than market-value while still providing the same money in their pockets. But hey, you have to press your advantages where you can. And now Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, Miller, Johnson, and McDonagh are around for years.

There also isn’t doom on the horizon. Sure, Yanni Gourde and Brayden Point are in need of new contracts after this season, and will be due raises, maybe even hefty ones. But all of Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, and Dan Girardi come off the books as well, for a cool $11.2M in space. And none of them need to be retained. Only Stralman at a much lower price would appeal. And if the Lightning let all of them go, they have Cal Foote waiting in the AHL to step in with Mikhail Sergachev moving up the lineup.

The following season, Ryan Callahan’s $5.8M hit will disappear, thankfully, and they’ll have even more space to play with as not really anyone is due a raise then. At least no one who has popped up as vital yet.

No one in their corps is even out of their prime, or even that much past their peak yet. Stamkos is 28, and McDonagh is 29, and the latter threatens to not age well, but everyone else is either right in their prime or not even there yet. They’re not going anywhere.

So it’s kind of a mystery how the Detroit build could be a more attractive option than this. Maybe Yzerman felt he’d done all the building and didn’t have much interest in merely maintaining. Maybe it’s just “Momma called.” But the Wings need so many pieces. Maybe he thinks his name is enough to draw prime free agents in the next few years. Except the Wings have exactly zero cap space at the moment. They’ll lose Thomas Vanek’s, Gustav Nyquist’s, and Niklas Kronwall’s contracts, as well as Jimmy Howard’s. But the Wings need at least a #1 center, a #1 d-man, and probably a goalie too, and that’s just for starters.

He’ll certainly have no interference in Detroit, where he’ll be allowed to do whatever he wants. The problem might be he’ll be competing with the force he’s already created for at least the next three years, probably longer, as they’re in the same division. That’ll make for some interesting viewing.

Game #8 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #8 – Lightning vs. Hawks Q&A: Alexis Boucher

By Sam Fels October 21, 2018 1641 0

Whenever the Hawks and Bolts get together, we bother our friend Alexis Boucher (@Alexis_b82). When we stop talking about Tetsuya Naito, we get around to hockey.

The Maple Leafs got all the press over the summer (shocking we know), and the Bruins always seem to have the East coast bias thing going. But the Lightning are the defending division champs, both regular season and playoffs, and were an unlucky whisker away from being in the Final themselves. Is there any reason to think they aren’t the favorites again?

I’m understandably biased when it comes to this question, but barring extensive injuries or incredibly bad luck it’s hard not to pick the Bolts as one of the heavy favorites out of the East. Their incredibly talented core group is still around and younger players have another year of experience under their belts. They know how well they’ve done over the last several years but the fact that they’ve fallen short isn’t lost on them. Before the home opener earlier this month Steven Stamkos was asked about the 2017-18 Division championship banner that had been hung in the rafters and if there was any discussion about it among the team. The captain said there wasn’t any talk about it because it wasn’t the one they wanted. This group remains hungry to finally fulfill their promise and hopefully this will be the year they make it happen.

It seems like the Lightning are always unveiling a spiky new youngster who contributes big time. Last year it was Yanni Gourde and Brayden Point. Anyone this year?

Right winger Mathieu Joseph made the Lightning’s roster out of training camp and he’s already been making a name for himself. Drafted in 2015, Joseph had an incredibly strong first pro season with the Syracuse Crunch in 2017-18. He plays with a tremendous amount of speed and tenacity on the ice which fits in well with Tampa’s style. He has had incredibly chemistry early on a line with another promising young player Anthony Cirelli and the veteran Alex Killorn.

Any chance Mikhail Sergachev earns more of a role than just third-pairing this season?

The sky certainly seems to be the limit when it comes to Sergachev’s potential. He’s so good that it’s easy to forget he’s only 20-years-old. He continues to see a decent amount of time on the second power play unit as well. As he continues to learn and grow it’s not out of the question that he breaks into Tampa’s top four.

What’s the story behind Steve Yzerman stepping down? Is he just going to get that much money from the Red Wings? Is this a worry in Tampa?

When the Yzerman news broke so close to the start of training camp it was more surprising than anything. Apparently, he wanted to tell all of the players when they arrived but it was shocking nonetheless. Not a lot of details have come out besides Yzerman’s desire to be closer to his family. His wife and daughters have remained based in Michigan throughout his tenure as GM and that can’t be easy. It would seem he’s destined to rejoin the Red Wings in some capacity down the line but it’s also difficult to see him stepping away from the team that he has built into a perennial contender before they reach their goal of winning the Stanley Cup. There’s a lot of unknowns in this scenario but Yzerman has definitely left them in a position to succeed. Julien BriseBois has been under his tutelage for a quite some time and is more than a worthy successor.

Game #8 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #8 – Lightning vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Dan Girardi Is Terrible And It’s Ok To Say So

By Sam Fels October 21, 2018 1486 0

If Dan Girardi played baseball, we’d get a FanGraphs piece, and a Prospectus Piece, probably something by Jason Stark, and certainly a Joe Sheehan newsletter about how bad he is and how he’s killing his team. Think of all the Jason Heyward stuff you’ve seen and apply. If he played football, there would be talking heads on Sportscenter debating what the problem is with the coaching staff that keeps running him out there.

And yet, no one in the main circle of hockey media ever tells you this guy sucks. That’s because somewhere along the line, a while ago now, he was given the label of “warrior.” Which means he blocks a lot of shots, because he has to, because he’s neither quick enough to get it back or to stop opponents from taking it from him nor is he skilled enough to pass it to someone who can do something better with it. Also he cross-checks guys around the net after whistles. The Hockey Grizzled go tumescent for that shit.

Here are Girardi’s relative-Corsi marks the past four seasons: -3.7, -5.2, -8.3, -5.1. His relative xGF% marks: -1.7, -1.0, -4.5, -3.5. The two not-awful marks are probably a result of the offensive talent that bails him out in Tampa, because you saw what happened with the Rangers.

And yet you’ll never hear a Pierre McGuire or anyone close to the game say so. Girardi actively hurts his team, but no one in hockey criticizes all that heavily, unless they’re the Toronto media in which case everyone’s guilty, because really no one in hockey is all that far from getting hired themselves. These guys making the decisions and those commenting on them have all been drunk in Moosejaw together or something, and hence none of them can be wrong.

You know what you’re seeing with Girardi. They know. But only we say. You always have to look a little harder for the truth in hockey.

Game #8 Preview Suite