Everything Else

Let’s Wheel Pose On Brandon Saad

By Sam Fels 2272 0

It’s a phrase I’ve come to use a lot, because it sums up nicely when a person is doing all sorts of things to justify an opinion or sell something, as well as the fact I’m getting old and my brain basically has room for six phrases now. Anyway, this post isn’t to argue that the Hawks “won” the second Brandon Saad trade, just like I wouldn’t argue they “won” the first one either. Going back to “what you know” has cost the Hawks at various points over the last seven years or so, and while selling high on Artemi Panarin was not the worst idea (doing it to put your middle finger up to your coach probably isn’t the best justification though), the Hawks probably could have done better. Should have done better.

That doesn’t mean we don’t still love Brandon Saad, because we do. And that doesn’t mean Brandon Saad isn’t a very good player, because he is. It also might mean this trade isn’t quite as lopsided as you might think, at least for this year. Yes, we’re tossing Saad’s completely snake-bitten previous campaign, when he was good as well but just couldn’t get any puck into the net. We can do that because it’s our playground and we make the rules.

So anyway, on Twitter I’ve occasionally made the joke that Saad’s 23 goals are only two behind Panarin’s 25 because it’s fun to do so. Obviously, Saad is nowhere near Panarin’s 49 assists and at no point in his career will he be. He’s not a playmaker, nor was he brought here to be, and he’ll never get to 30 assists in a season, much less 45+. That’s just the way things are. The Hawks have playmakers, so whatever.

As you’ve probably guessed, we’ll look at this metrically. Even metrically, Panarin is beyond Saad. Overall, their Corsi% is 54.6 for Panarin and 53.9 for Saad. Their expected goals percentage is 55.0% for Panarin, and 46.8% for Saad, who clearly is suffering at least a little from the historically bad defense behind him.

But the curious thing here is that there isn’t a player in the league who starts more shifts in the offensive zone than Panarin. Which is weird, because when he was here one of the things Q loved about him was his attention to detail in the defensive zone. Either he has stopped caring, or John Tortorella is being unreasonable (unheard of, I know), but 81% of Panarin’s shifts start in the offensive zone. Now, most top line players will start a majority of shifts there, because that’s where you want them. But 81% is excessive. Meanwhile, Saad starts almost exactly half his shifts there at 51%.

Now, even amongst the most sheltered, Panarin’s relative-stats still are clearly above the rest. He’s +6 in relative Corsi per 60 and +8 in relative-scoring chances, and no one else in the top-10 in offensive zone starts is anywhere near that. Which stands to reason, because if you keep a player like Panarin exclusively in the offensive zone, he’s likely to stay there and make things happen.

Still, if you look around Saad’s neighborhood of zone starts (he’s 303rd, so the 10 spots ahead and the 10 spots below), there are only two players doing his level of work in relative-Corsi. And they’re Ryan Getzlaf (what?) and William Karlsson. In relative scoring chance percentage, only Jakub Voracek, Getzlaf, and Jonathan Huberdeau are outdoing Saad’s +2.48 per 60. Those are nice names for the most part, and suggest that Saad and his linemates are turning the ice over at a higher rate than most of those asked to do it as much. Whereas Panarin already has the ice tilted for him.

Now, I couldn’t begin to tell you what Saad’s numbers would look like if he started 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone. They wouldn’t be Panarin’s numbers, but they would be more than he’s put up. I also can’t tell you what his numbers would look like if he had more than one d-man behind him who was of a higher quality than NHL third-pairing, but why don’t we just steal Seth Jones and find out? For funsies?

Again, would never argue that the Hawks won this trade or all that close. It’s just closer than you might think, and also might look better when Panarin cashes in for $11M per year from the Rangers in the summer. I mean, if Mark Stone is making $9.5M…

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 14th

By Sam Fels 1016 0

First Screen Viewing

Stars vs. Wild – 7pm

If you’re under the not-quite-delusion but not-quite-real idea that the Hawks still have a shot at the playoffs, then this is the one to watch and utterly pray ends in regulation. The better result is the Stars winning in regulation, because the Wild can easily be hauled in by the Hawks, who could pull within a point tomorrow if results go their way. After a Dubnyk-inspired five-game winning streak, the Wild have lost four of five, which will happen you have to play a lot of real teams (Nashville twice, San Jose, and Tampa). This is the collapse the Wild did a dress rehearsal for around the deadline, and definitely look poised to embark on a again. Their schedule the rest of the way is pretty brutal, so they kind of need this one. This is something of their last stand. Meanwhile, a win for Dallas would leave them five points above the abyss, and Ben Bishop along (assuming health) probably keeps them from blowing that.

Second Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Jets – 7pm

I keep hyping the Jets, and yet in the last week they’ve capitulated to the Capitals, Sharks, and Lightning. In an examination period where they were getting cracks at the club of clubs they think they are part of, they pretty much flunked. So here’s another one in the Bruins, who despite my suspicions are the second best team in hockey. Both the Jets and Preds are seemingly intent on losing their stamps to the penthouse of the league and are appearing more and more like a speedbump for the Sharks or Flames or Knights out of the Pacific. This another chance for the Jets to at least claw some of that back. The Bs meanwhile can move six clear of the Leafs for home ice in the first round, whatever that means.

Other Games

Penguins vs. Sabres – 6pm

Canadiens vs. Islanders – 6pm

Capitals vs. Flyers – 6pm

Blues vs. Senators – 6:30

Lightning vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Ducks vs. Coyotes – 9pm

Predators vs. Kings – 9:30

Panthers vs. Sharks – 9:30

Everything Else

The Awkwardness Of Duncan Keith

By Sam Fels 2429 0

I suppose this is just going to be a normal thing, especially when the Hawks infiltrate Canada and Toronto specifically. But it was Duncan Keith’s turn to get the puff piece treatment, this time from Pierre LeBrun.

It would be extremely hard to believe, and to convince me, that this was Keith’s idea. Keith hates, hates, hates talking to the media, and pretty much hates everything that goes along with playing hockey except for the playing hockey part. It was LeBrun who first reported that the Hawks would go to Keith around the deadline to gauge whether he wanted to stay or go. So it makes sense the LeBrun would write the follow-up, which appears to be the opposite. Still, it’s hard to square some of what’s in here to what we saw last night, over the past few weeks, and over the whole season.

And some of this is weird:

“Last year it was a little bit hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Keith said Wednesday after the morning skate. “This year there’s been a lot more positives. We’re in a playoff race right now. That’s exciting hockey for us right now. There’s been young guys that have taken steps this year and that’s a good thing. We need that around here.”

I mean, ok, but this is Keith who’s saying this. The same Keith who hasn’t hesitated to point out to the local media just how shit he thinks his team has been at points. That includes last week when he directly countered his coach to oppose the view that the Hawks had played well against Colorado and Dallas, two games they lost that pretty much ended their playoff hopes. So it’s hard to align, and it almost sounds like Keith playing the hits a bit to try ingratiate himself back with the front office. I don’t know that’s what it is, that’s just the feeling I get.

What I did nod my head in agreement with was Stan Bowman’s assertion that they would go to the four-five core players of yore and lay out their plan. I agree with this, and most do. They’ve earned the right, and they’ve all earned the right to opt-in or out. I feel like the conversation will sound different to Brent Seabrook than it will to Patrick Kane, but let’s run that kitten over when we get to it.

Of course, I also snicker when Bowman says, “They have a plan different from other organizations,” because A. his boss just said there’s no plan, but a process, and B. trying to make yourself sound smarter than other teams when you’re still out of the playoffs sounds like you’ve been huffing your own ass for too long. Which is a problem this organization has had for a while now.

“I feel we’ve made some good strides this year,” said Keith. “I still feel like there’s a lot of good things going on in Chicago. At the end of the day, there’s not a lot of teams that you really look at and think, ‘OK, they’re that much better than this team.’ So, I like it in Chicago, I like the group, I know we have to be better, but I’d like to be part of that.”

Again, this is contrary to the things Keith has let slip after games, which he’s either trying to walk back through a national guy or have it both ways. I’m not sure. But at the end of the day, here’s what I can’t get past:

 

That turnover. Yes, it’s incredibly stupid and petty to get worked up about one turnover in a season of 82 games. It’s probably even sillier to attach deeper meaning to it, and yet I can’t help it.

He was under no pressure. He knows better, and it’s not the kind of mistake that Keith has made most of the year. This one reeks of carelessness. This just reeks of someone who couldn’t be bothered. Maybe it was frustration that the Hawks had already given up three of a five-goal lead, and were under the kosh. Maybe he was frustrated it got to this point at all, and just let it out. And even if we grant him that, that’s the kind of thing Duncan Keith isn’t supposed to fall in for. He’s supposed to be above that and show his younger and less heralded teammates the better way.

This isn’t a player who had no choice, like Seabrook’s turnover mere seconds later. He’s slow and simply can’t get away from forecheckers or open up time for himself to make a pass. Keith can, and has, and should have. He just didn’t.

But like a lot of times this year, it just looks like Keith wasn’t as engaged. This is lazy, along with stupid. At best it’s totally flustered, which is exactly what Keith isn’t supposed to be. It’s basically what he’s never been until this season, or last season at worst.

So Keith’s claims that he likes what is going on here and wants to be a part of it is belied but what we see on the ice. It’s more than this one turnover. That one turnover just encapsulates everything we’ve seen this year. The two messages don’t square up. More often than not Keith has played like someone who doesn’t believe in what’s going on here, that maybe has thought about his future elsewhere, that either believes the changes made were mistakes, more changes need to be made, or both.

If Keith genuinely does want to be here, he’ll have to do a couple things. He’ll have to accept a new role, which he at least seems open to. He’ll have to accept what he can and can’t do anymore, which he’s been more reluctant to do. And he’ll also have to be focused and engaged for all 82, which he clearly has not been at all times this season.

The words are nice. They just don’t line up with what we see on the ice, which is the more important part.

Everything Else

Game #70 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Preview/Cake Or Death: Now’s Probably Not The Time

By Sam Fels 1745 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 30-30-9   42-22-5

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN

THE ABYSS: Pension Plan Puppets 

During the Hawks first “streak,” it was obvious they were benefitting from a softening of the schedule. Even when they played barely real teams, they were simply outclassed. We don’t know if this is a new “streak” yet, three in a row hardly constitutes that, but whatever it is is unlikely to continue tonight. The Hawks are playing one of the few REAL-ASS teams in the league, and we know how that’s gone. And they’re facing one that’s probably going to have an edge/snarl to it.

The Leafs had something of a “test” on Monday, and they got absolutely horsed by the Lightning at home, 6-2. If they had won that game or even been close, you might be hopeful of catching them with their focus elsewhere. Probably no such luck tonight. Maybe if the Bruins had beaten the Jackets last night and moved six points ahead of the Leafs, they would have decided there’s nothing left to play for and would have spent the last 13 games looking at their watch. But with a four-point gap and a game in hand, the Leafs can reasonably think that home-ice is still on the table and worth chasing (which is debatable). So the combination of frustration and motivation should have the Leafs antennae up, which is hardly good news.

There’s also the small matter of Morgan Rielly, which shouldn’t matter but will in the sense that he will get a standing ovation from the frothing, rich aristocracy that fills the Whatever It’s Fucking Called Now Center, because…he might…not have…used a homophobic slur? They won’t know why, they’ll just clap like the trained seals all fans become in situations like this. Either way, he and the Leafs will be happy to have a game to play to distract from whatever the last two days were. All of this does not add up to a pleasant night for the Hawks.

And even without all that, this is a team so far beyond the Hawks you wouldn’t want to drive it. In games against the league’s penthouse residents, the Hawks have generally been embarrassed. The Lightning have dribbled their head like a basketball twice. So have the Sharks. The Jets took them seriously for like a combined 12 minutes and got three wins out of it. They were with the Bruins in South Bend when the Bs were in their worst stretch, and then nowhere close in Boston. They’re 0-3 against the Flames. It’s not an enviable record.

And though they may finish third in their division. and though their media and fans refuse to shut up about anything, this is still an unholy offensive force. John Tavares has 76 points, and he’s the second center. There are three lines here better than the Hawks can muster with one, and when they get rolling no one can live with it (except Tampa, apparently). The Hawks were able to put up six on this team in the home opener because they got a look at Garret Sparks. They’ll find no such refuge here. The Leafs will want a recovery from Monday, which means Andersen, who’s been one of the better goalies in the league.

If the Leafs have a weakness it’s a defense that still is short, even with Jake Muzzin, but you have to get the puck first which is the real trick. Sure, if the Hawks can get DeBrincat or Kane or Saad or Toews bearing down on Hainsey or Zaitsev or whoever they might find some joy, but getting to those spots takes more than a smile. It’s also a beat-up blue line as both Gardiner and Dermott are out.

For the Hawks, shouldn’t be too many changes. Crawford will start, and the lines should look the same (go pound, John Hayden). The expectations for this one should be nil. If the Hawks can get a win in Montreal against a Canadiens team fighting it, this trip will be a success. After that, it’s the Canucks, Flyers, and a home-and-home with the Avs. Basically it would be set for the Hawks to perform one last death rattle if they get out of Canada alive.

And if not, they are who we through they were anyway.

 

Game #70 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #70 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Spotlight: Ab Babs

By Sam Fels 1474 0

Here’s something you’re not told a lot these days. Mike Babcock teams have won three playoff series in nine years. Everyone knows that Mike Babcock is one of the best coaches in the league. But what this post presupposes is…maybe he isn’t?

You may think the medals cabinet in the Babcock house prove that he is. Except he’s got one Cup with one of the better rosters assembled in the past 15 years. And another Final with that same roster. There was the J.S. Giguere-engineered appearance with the Ducks, but that Ducks team didn’t even win a division. And sure, there are two gold medals. Then again, try and not win a gold medal with the talent at disposal in those Olympics. You could probably win one with the players left off those rosters if you really knew what you were doing. Let’s say the record isn’t as clean as you might think.

Sure, it’s not Babcock’s fault the Wings got old, Johan Franzen got hurt, and it turned out Ken Holland might have been just as born on third. Still, you’d have to ask what Wings team truly overachieved in his time there. The one that nearly toppled the Hawks in 2013? That would be the only argument. Every other team finished near the bottom of the playoff picture and were similarly dismissed.

So to the Leafs. His first playoff team there was a shiny new toy, and no one really minded a defiant exit to the regular season-best Capitals. But should the Leafs really have been losing to the Bruins last year? You could argue it was just goalies, as Frederik Andersen did his usual Game 7 scream at his shoes and Tuukka Rask merely had to remain upright. But look at the rosters. The Bruins were, and are, basically one line. The Leafs have been able to sport two or three for three seasons now, especially this time.

Which means Babcock will have an awful lot riding on this first-round matchup. Sure, there was no catching the Lightning this year. Maybe home ice will matter and maybe it won’t. But another first-round capitulation? There would be serious questions to be asked about the Leafs coach.

On the surface, there seems little more Babcock can do. This is the second straight season the Leafs are #3 in goals for, and with his kind of firepower that’s where they should be. They’re just off the top-10 defensively. Metrically, they’re one of the best offensive teams in the league. Babcock had clashed with his team last year about too-defensive gameplans, but seemed to let the leash out the second half of last year. Certainly their offensive marks suggest same.

The only quibble you can lodge is that defensively, they’ve needed Andersen to be pretty spectacular most nights. When it comes to expected goals against, the Leafs are 21st. But thanks to Andersen, they have the 4th-best save-percentage at evens. Babcock made his name on defensive solidarity, and won a Cup with Chris Osgood to prove it. On the other side, the way the game is now you do have to sometimes just let it out and hope your goalie bails you out. And Babcock has this blue line to deal with. It’s just not that good. Throwing everything forward and trying to keep it away from that defense as often as possible is the only way, even if it leaves gaps.

But this is Toronto, and no one’s going to want to hear about metrics and attempts-share if the Leafs don’t get to four on the playoff wins counter for a third straight season. And the Leafs may think they have all the time in the world, but contracts say they don’t. When Mitch Marner’s contract is signed this summer, the Leafs will start to lose a piece here and there instead of adding them. This team might be as loaded as they get, and certainly next year is probably it.

This is a twitchy fanbase and an even twitchier media. There’s also a coach with three rings to Babs’s one, who is from not too far away, just sitting at home right now. He’s about the only name that anyone would consider replacing Mike Babcock with. Unfortunately for Babcock though, he is unemployed. If the Leafs can’t find their way past the Bruins again, you can be damn sure the wind is going to whisper, “Q.”

Everything Else

Game #70 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Douchebag Du Jour: Morgan Rielly, The Leafs, And The NHL Must Show Their Work

By Sam Fels 1634 0

Boy, controversy seems to follow Kyle Dubas around.

Nothing will come of Morgan Rielly’s escape of being labeled a homophobe officially, though some will never forget. It would have been hard to miss the story, but if you did, on Monday night, on-ice mics caught Rielly saying something that sure sounded like “faggot” at an official. The NHL launched an investigation, and yesterday it cleared Rielly after talking to him and the ref, Brad Meier. Still, Rielly’s defense of, “I’m 100% confident I did not use that word” makes it sound like he as an observer rather than the center of this story. It doesn’t instill 100% confidence in anyone else who has anything of a skeptical eye. Whatever, here we are.

What’s frustrating, or one of the frustrating aspects, is that the NHL, Rielly, Meier, or anyone hasn’t been forced or compelled to tell us what he did say. When seeing and hearing the footage, it’s hard to conclude he said anything else. And the fact that no one has sought to clarify what it was that did escape his lips, it raises a lot of doubt. Because this being the NHL, and we know their favorite tactic when dealing with anything controversial is to imitate an ostrich. And just wait until Don Cherry gets his grubby paws on this on Saturday. At least when Andrew Shaw went through this for the second time, he or someone was allowed to show what he was actually saying and what amateur lip-reading would have mistaken for that slur. There’s been no such impetus from the Leafs.

Brad Meier saying nothing was directed at him certainly is encouraging, but if Rielly were using that word simply as an expletive or exclamation, that’s no better. But we’ll never get there, so let’s deal with what we can.

What the NHL can do is empower its refs to eject and report any player they hear using that word or anything like it. It is purely farcical to believe that slur has only made an appearance on NHL ice on Monday and caught by a mic. This is a league populated by barely 7th-grade educated peons who have grown up and spent a great majority of their lives in one of the most closed and poisonous cultures we know. Surely something is getting said in scrums, and yet NHL refs have never ejected or penalized anyone for that kind of use. At least that we know of.

What’s likely here is that Meier doesn’t really want to start a furor, hears that word enough, and much like the rest of hockey culture thinks it’s ok to just muscle through it. Or that it’s not a big deal. Until someone proves what Rielly said or meant, there’s going to be a heavy level of doubt.

While it does share characteristics of victim-blaming, the NHL could use the opportunity to empower its refs to start penalizing and ejecting any type of inappropriate and offensive language on the ice. That doesn’t mean swear words obviously, but racist and homophobic slurs for sure. And they’re there. We know they are.

If nothing else, on the lowest level, the NHL might want to look at just how much abuse it wants its officials to deal with every game. Think about how many unsportsmanlike conducts springing from yelling at a ref calls you’ve seen this year. One? Two? Compare that with flags in the NFL, technicals in the NBA, or ejections in MLB (ok, that last one is probably too much, given that most MLB umps are babies). NHL refs hear it from every angle while reffing by far the fastest game there is. Perhaps allowing officials to throw a few more minors at coaches and players who get particularly yappy, and you may indirectly shrink the area where much more ugly stuff tends to slither out.

Game #70 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

 

 

Everything Else

Game #70 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 1270 0

Notes: Perlini’s insertion onto Strome’s and Cat’s line has really lifted their metrics. And they’re also smart enough sometimes to just throw a fly pattern with his speed. D-men get awfully puckered with a bouncing puck at their feet and him streaking at or outside them. He almost had four goals that way on Monday…Likewise Sikura with Toews and Saad, though Toews and Saad just kind of do that. They’ll have their hands full tonight though…If Forsling and Seabrook start one shift in their own zone, Colliton should have his glasses broken in front of him…The fourth line has been really good since Kampf’s return. It’s almost as if he’s good?

Notes: Muzzin’s use as a strictly dungeon-master doesn’t really jibe with what he did in LA with Doughty, but then again they don’t have anyone else. It hasn’t been smooth, and they need Gardiner back…Marleau has one goal in his last 12, and playing on a checking line wouldn’t seem to suit him at this stage of his career…Nylander’s SH% has dropped to 6% even though everything else is in line. We’re sure the ever patient Toronto fans and media are giving him every break though after signing that huge deal after a holdout…You can get at this defense. The Leafs have had a sub-45% share in five of their last six games…If you’re looking for Kasperi Kapanen, you won’t find him as he’s out with a concussion.

 

Game #70 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 12th

By Sam Fels 1088 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Jets – 7pm

This is your conference final preview, as far as I’m concerned. Both can open up some space on their pursuers, as the Sharks are one point up on the Flames and the Jets are one up with two games in hand on the Preds. What are the odds they both do? Pretty good because that’s how these things work! Yeah, the Jets have been defensively wonky and getting by because Blake Wheeler is awesome and their depth. But Laine is waking up, and Hellebuyck is very slowly starting to, and they’re the class. The Sharks have won five in a row without Karlsson, and Jones has given up six goals in his last four starts. They really are better than everyone else in the conference, and this is just about the time they show it. Second of a back-to-back might have them a little charred, but you’ll be seeing this again.

Second Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

If you’re chasing a playoff spot, you don’t want to get shutout as the Jackets did last night. And you don’t want to turn around and face the Bruins who didn’t play and have lost like three games in regulation this decade or something stupid. No, I don’t think the Bruins are that good, but they’re good enough to make life harder on the Jackets, whose margin for error is getting smaller and smaller (even the Flyera are appearing in the rearview). They’re the biggest story in the league, really. You can’t help but watch.

Other Games

Stars vs. Sabres – 6pm

Capitals vs. Penguins – 6pm

Red Wings vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Coyotes vs. Blues – 7pm

Devils vs. Flames – 8pm

Predators vs. Ducks – 9:00

Everything Else

The Colliton Effect Revisited

By Sam Fels 1839 0

I wouldn’t tell you I know what the rest of this season is worth or going to be. The one thing I can say for sure is that it’s a study, not a referendum, of Jeremy Colliton. Unless the Hawks go 0-12-1 and Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews attempt to give him a Shatter Machine in his office, he’s going to be the coach going forward. So what we want to see is that his methods and tactics are having an effect, and the team and players are getting better. There needs to be a base camp for next year, let’s say.

So let’s revisit where the Hawks are under Colliton from various points. We did this just about a month ago, and what we found was that though the Hawks record was much improved, the process was still rotten. Is the process getting any better? Um…maybe?

Ok, so we’ll try and do this from three points on the calendar. The first is since Colliton took over on November 8th:

Corsi-percentage: 48.3 (23rd)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 46.0 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 42.8 (Dead Ass Last)

The last time we tried this, we looked from December 17th, which is when the Hawks started their first run of 12-6-4 to get back into it all. So from December 17th, after Colliton had been on the job for a month, until now:

Corsi Percentage: 47.6 (26th)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 45.0 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 41.6 (Dead Ass Last)

Not great, Bob! Ok, so today, let’s also add just the last month:

Corsi Percentage: 50.9 (13th)

Scoring Chance Percentage: 46.5 (30th)

High Danger Chance Percentage: 45.0 (27th)

We’re not last! We’re not last!

If you want to believe, and you shouldn’t be blamed if you do because it’s better, healthier, and happier to think your coach knows what he’s doing, then the last month has seen an uptick in the Hawks percentages, even if they’re not on the positive side of the ledger in the types of chances they get. They are in overall attempts, which is at least something of a foothold.

Now clearly, this isn’t very scientific, and when you’re looking at a snippet of the schedule, the quality of that snippet plays a major role. In that span of the last month, the only “real” teams the Hawks have played are the Bruins, Sharks, the Jackets debatably, maybe the Avs, maybe the Stars. They were clocked by the Bruins and Sharks, while played the Avs and Stars basically even. And really, even with the Stars and Avs is probably where they “should” be, and may yet end up. Still, at this point we’ll take any uptick we can find, and hope that it continues through the last three weeks of the season here.

That said, after the Leafs tomorrow night, the rest of the Hawks schedule is filled with teams on the fringes of the playoff race, where they probably “should” be, aside from one date with the Sharks again. That is until the season closes with three games against actually good teams, and you can easily see a scenario where they spend the next two weeks playing themselves right onto the cusp of the last spot, and then get flambeed by the Jets, Blues, and Preds.

But that’s neither here nor there. Another factor we can look at with Colliton, seeing as how he’ll be given more and more young players as we go forward, is to see improvement from anyone. The obvious candidate is Erik Gustafsson, who is 9th in scoring among d-men which is something we’re just never going to get used to. Unlike Q, you could argue that Colliton has simply forgiven Gus for his various and numerous defensive drownings, and taken the points and fireworks. I’ll let you have it if you want.

Brendan Perlini is going to have to have more than a good week before we chalk that up as a success story. Dylan Strome is a name some would bring up, but that could be a result of just getting to play with better talent than he ever did in Arizona (there is no Alex DeBrincat in Glendale). Henri Jokiharju is in Rockford. Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling have proven to be very much Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling, and will go down as a “miss.” Dominik Kahun and Drake Caggiula haven’t proven to be much more than “guys.” They get an incomplete at best.

So the jury is anything but in no matter the category. This is a big three weeks for the Hawks, and it’s a bigger three weeks for their coach. He’s clearly still got some veterans to convince, and he can do that by watching the Hawks improve through this last stretch when the games are most tense. To be fair to him, the Hawks had two big games at the end of last month, and they weren’t….horrible. But they lost. If they streak their way into another chance at games like that somewhere along here, they’re going to have to be better.

Otherwise, he and the Hawks will basically be starting all back over in September.