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Game #67 – The NHL Is A Toilet – Hawks 1, Avalanche 1 (Hawks Win Biggest Bong Hit)

By John Pullega 2438 0

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Corsica

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This game adequately proved why the NHL will always be a Riot Fest porta-potty to the rest of the sports-watching world. On the 20th anniversary of The Big Lebowski, it’s appropriate to say that we’re all nihilists. We believe in nothing. To the bullets of this garbage display from the worst sports league on Earth.

– Let’s get to it. At first, the Saad no goal looked like the right call. He made a kicking motion. It was obvious. But our Fearless Leader made a good point over on Twitter dot com, saying that unless the NHL had conclusive evidence that the puck DIDN’T touch Saad’s stick, the goal ought to have stayed good. And that IS the rule. The call on the ice ought to stand unless there’s conclusive evidence otherwise.

All the original angles didn’t really give any indication. But living in Colorado, I had front row seats for the Colorado feed, which had an overhead angle of the goal. If you watch the video, it’s pretty clear that the puck touches Saad’s stick on its way over. So once again, the NHL can’t zip a pair of fucking sweatpants without getting its dick caught in a zipper that only they would have on a pair of fucking sweatpants.

But the most unbelievable thing about all of this is that THE NHL WAR ROOM DIDN’T HAVE THAT ANGLE. How the FUCK DOES THE WAR ROOM NOT HAVE THAT ANGLE? As a multi-billion dollar league. As a league that says over and over again that it wants to be taken seriously. As a league that waters down each and every team for the sake of faux parity to get casual fans to watch their Burger-King-toilet-after-a-cocaine-and-soft-cheese binge of a product because anyone who’s anyone knows what a burning orphanage the NHL is. How do you not have that angle?

This is a game with playoff implications for the Avalanche. Granted, the call ended up going for them, but isn’t the whole premise of the NHL that “our playoffs are the best”? And you want to overturn calls that shouldn’t be overturned because the people who make the decisions on that call don’t have the one fucking angle they need, an angle that the broadcasters for the Avalanche—who work out of the backroom of one of the 69,000 dispensaries we have on each and every fucking corner of this state—did? On what fucking planet is that acceptable?

The NHL’s integrity on things off the ice has always been a used condom dangling over a chicken-processing-plant’s open-top dumpster after a long, hard summer rain, so it’s fitting that its on-ice product, which when done right is as fulfilling as cunnilingus on top of an ice cream cake, has begun to reflect that. I hope the next strike never ends.

Fuck the NHL. Eat Arby’s.

– OK, now that that’s done, let’s talk about the Blackhawks. Connor Murphy had an exemplary game, and has supplanted Duncan Keith as the Hawks’s #1 D-Man in my view. His only boner was the penalty he took in the second that led to MacKinnon’s goal, and it was a bad penalty. But aside from that, he shut the MacKinnon line down, which is no small feat. He was also the calming presence on the ice, as Keith consistently found himself turning the puck over in his own zone. It’s neat and bittersweet to watch a changing of the guard on one pairing.

– We give Erik Gustafsson an awful lot of shit for sucking at defense, but I see offensive upside when he’s on the ice with Garbage Dick. On his goal, he was trying to make a saucer pass to Kane, who was wide open on the far side for a tip. It happened to go off Nemeth’s skate, but it also looked on target for Kane. Then in the second, he made another quality pass that Kane tipped and Varlamov managed to stick away. If you look at Gustafsson as an offensive defenseman, the extension might make a bit more sense.

– Brandon Saad was an unstoppable force tonight. Despite getting his dick punched on that shitty, inexcusable overturned goal, he was everywhere tonight. He drove the net with power several times, most noticeably in the first and second. He ended the night with a 58+ CF%, and the last time I checked in the second—because I was too goddamn furious to watch the third—he was hovering in the 70s or 80s.

– My Cousin Vinnie does just about everything except score these days. He was on the plus-side of the CF% ledger, and had two particularly good plays. The first was about midway through the first period. He took the puck through the neutral zone, then lost it. Instead of panicking, he skillfully lifted the defender’s stick, took the puck, and continued on like nothing happened.

In the third, he completed a gorgeous Spin-o-Rama to get the puck to a streaking DeBrincat, who caught some bad luck in Varlamov and couldn’t put it away. Still, you have to like what you’re seeing out of a confident Vinnie.

– J-F Berube was outstanding tonight. There’s not much he can do about MacKinnon’s goal, with MacKinnon being a Hart candidate standing alone on Seabrook’s side on the PK and Seabrook being Seabrook. He ended up with 33 saves on 34 shots against a team desperate for points on a playoff drive. He’s only had three games—two great and one statistical stinker—but hell if he’s not making a case to be the backup.

The NHL is a toilet. The officials are horseshit. The war room is an affront. But the Hawks won, and The Big Lebowski is on somewhere, so we’ll call it a win.

Beer du Jour: Tommyknocker Blood Orange, followed by straight pulls from the Jefferson’s bottle.

Line of the Night: “They had no overhead. At both ends . . . or one of the ends . . . so they can’t use it.” –Peter McNab, describing why Saad’s goal got overturned.

Everything Else

Game #66 – Hawks vs. Ducks Douchebag Du Jour: Kevin Bieksa (For The Last Time Ever, We Hope)

By John Pullega 1768 0

Even on a team chock-full of potential douchebags, from Ryan Kesler to Corey Perry and more, it’s hard not to go back to Kevin Bieksa. You already know about his mouthiness—both literally and idiomatically—and his semi-celebrated “Superman Punch” on Radko Gudas earlier in the year, which is par for the course for a league that wants you so desperately to think it’s conscious and aware of the problems that come with concussions without actually having to do anything to eliminate one of the most common causes of concussions. But would you believe that Bieksa is an even bigger douchebag when he’s doing the thing he’s supposedly paid to do?

It’s no huge secret that Bieksa hasn’t been good in about seven years, but since joining Anaheim he’s somehow managed to outdo even his own expected shittiness. First, for this year, he’s scored exactly six points, all assists, and half of them have been secondary assists. Second, he makes just about everyone he plays with worse in terms of possession. Here are the differentials for the guys he’s played most with this year, with and without him.

TOI WITH CF% WITH CF% WITHOUT DIFFERENTIAL
Cam Fowler 471:07 48.39 48 0.81%
Rickard Rakell 246:10 48.88 50.87 -3.91%
Andrew Cogliano 198:43 42.54 50.91 -16.44%
Corey Perry 195:48 47.34 47.93 -1.23%

 

What a surprise that a guy whose pedigree relies on having more penalty minutes than shots on goal would be able to make so many other players so much worse. Couple that with his glistening -5.4 CF% Rel, and you’ve got a guy who doesn’t do dick in terms of the things that usually matter on the ice. But hey, he’s got 81 PIM and 104 hits on the year, which is totally useful for a team that’s scratching and clawing to keep itself in the playoff hunt.

Bieksa is the kind of player that keeps the rabble both at bay and braying for blood. All he’s good for anymore is picking fights and throwing dangerous punches at other large oafs, and every moment he’s on the ice is a gigantic waste of everyone’s time. Fortunately, it looks like the sun is beginning to set on his Stonehenge-sized jaw, as his playing time has mercifully begun to decrease in favor of the younger, somehow homelier Marcus Pettersson.

If he gets a chance to suit up against the Hawks—and Christ willing he won’t—you can expect him to grunt, grind, and jaw against guys much smaller and more skillful than he, so Alex DeBrincat will likely need to keep his positional awareness extra sharp to avoid any undue meetings with him. This is his last year of his hilarious two-year $4 million-per deal, so with any luck, this will be the last time his oversized yap has the misfortune of gracing our screens as a hockey player.

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Game #64 – Let The Bottle Do The Work To Ease The Mind And Soothe The Hurt – Hawks 2, SHA-ARKS 7

By John Pullega 2089 0

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Like a Crave Crate, the Hawks were great through the first five. The rest was a blackout of shit, snot, and puke. There’s not much to learn from a drubbing like this, but let’s see what we can find. Sometimes there’s a penny in those sliders. To the bullets.

– J-F Berube, despite giving up six goals through two periods, didn’t look terrible. The only goal that was really on him was Vlasic’s “fuck you” at the end of the second, but at that point, his confidence is shot. No use keeping him out there. He managed to look good when he wasn’t getting hung out to dry, but those moments were few and far between.

– Carl Dahlstrom looked like a guy who’s played fewer than 10 games in his career tonight. He was directly responsible for the Sharks’s first three goals. On the first, he made a questionable pinch with Schmaltz near the puck after Highmore Salvador Dali’ed a shot off the far boards, running into Schmaltz and kicking the puck straight to Pavelski, who started an unbelievably pretty passing cycle with Donskoi and Burns.

The second was a complete circus. Gustafsson passed into Vinnie’s skates, and while Gustafsson tried to recover, Dahlstrom got caught starting to leave the zone early. He then set a pick on Toews, allowing the puck to squirt past a falling Gustafsson for a 2-on-0 that Berube had no chance on. It was Dahlstrom’s bad positioning that set that goal up.

On the third, Dahlstrom took a shot from the blue line that Labanc blocked, then got out raced by Labanc. After the initial rush failed, Dahlstrom floated to his off side to cover after Gustafsson hit the ice to block Labanc’s original attempt, then seemed to fall asleep, letting Tierney behind him and Gustafsson, who slid a quick pass past a confused Gustafsson to a wide open Labanc.

I’m willing to write this off as simply a bad game from a young player, and I hope that Dahlstrom can grow into positional awareness. But tonight was not one for his reel.

– Dahlstrom was noticeably awful, but the Hawks’s D-corps looked bad as a whole. Keith took a retaliatory penalty late in the second after Sorensen overpowered him with a semi-slash. Connor Murphy fell down a few times and was embarrassed by Timo Meier’s speed in the first. Jordan Oesterle tipped a puck into his own net after a Goodrow pass attempt from behind the net. While Oesterle had some bad luck on that tip, no one on the backend stood out, and for a team that relies as heavily on plays coming from the backend as the Hawks do, this is about the result you’d expect out of the effort.

– On the plus side, Duclair looked spry, even though he couldn’t finish a 1-on-0 in the second or his penalty shot in the third. He had the worst 5v5 CF% of all Hawks though, for what that’s worth on a complete blowout.

– Alex DeBrincat continues to impress. He had a few prime opportunities that Jones stuffed him on, but it’s still a joy to watch him get to all the right spots. At some point, he’s going to play with Schmaltz and Kane regularly, which ought to start tapping into his potential more directly. You’d like to see it now, but Q’s line choices continue to be a mystery.

– Matthew Highmore debuted tonight and did about as much as you could expect. His far-too-wide shot in the first triggered the Sharks’s first goal following Dahlstrom’s misguided pinch, but he was also in decent position for a tip off a DeBrincat wrister from the high slot in the second. He didn’t make the tip, but he had the right idea. Not much to take away from him tonight, but he wasn’t a complete zoo.

Games like these make it hard to say “everything will be better next year when Crawford comes back.” While Corey definitely is the difference maker, the Hawks have some huge questions to answer on defense going forward. It’s frustrating to watch this team have no answers, but that’s the kind of year it’s been. Take it on the chin and move forward is the plan.

At this point, all you can do is look for development and improvement from the younger guys. Tonight saw DeBrincat look great, Schmaltz look good, and Duclair look outstanding at times. The rest may have been garbage, but there are positives strewn among this shit.

We’ve got 17 more games to see what we’re doing going into the off-season. Onward.

Beer du Jour: Jefferson’s Whiskey with a High Life back.

Line of the Night: “Quite a debut for Matthew Highmore. He won’t forget his first NHL game.” – Chris Cuthbert, with the Hawks down 7–1.

Everything Else

Game #64 – Hawks vs. Sharks Spotlight: Martin Jones

By John Pullega 1935 0

When success has a name as common as Martin Jones, it’s easy to overlook. But here we are, with Jonathan Quick’s former backup giving the Sharks a tenuous grasp on the second slot in the woebegone Pacific Division.

But it hasn’t been free roses for Jones all year. You may remember that there was something of a goalie controversy for the Sharks back in December, when Jones found himself swimming around with an 88+ SV% for the month. Much like the to-do the Hawks had after the 2015 playoffs—in which people yelled themselves hoarse for Darling over Crawford in an ethereal dance that simply never, ever seemed to end—the unwashed in the Bay brayed and spat for Aaron Dell to start. And start he did, only to prove why he was an undrafted pick up in the first place. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

Since the December dregs—which those in the know think was a result of an undisclosed injury—Jones has gone on to post one of the better stretches of his career as a starter. After a mixed bag January that saw him post a shutout and a 43-save shootout loss among a couple of putrid attempts, including allowing three goals on six shots against the Coyotes and a five-goal shin-kicking against Colorado, Jones has caught fire in February, posting a 93.2 SV%. Over the last eight games, he’s only allowed more than two goals once, and that was in OT against the Wild. Over that stretch, he’s gone 5-2-1, and the Sharks have needed every bit of it as they try to ward off the Army of the Damned that is the Kings, Ducks, and Flames on their tails.

Yet, despite this hot February, Jones’s SV% sits at about average: He’s currently at 91.7%, whereas the league average is 91.4%. But it makes sense, given how wildly Jones’s performance has swung this year. He bookended his horrid December and below-average January with save percentages no lower than 92.5% each month.

Jones is the Hot Pocket of goaltenders: either ice cold or scathingly hot, never quite finished cooking, and only satisfying to those who consider gastrointestinal distress a virtue. Unless, of course, he’s playing the Hawks.

In eight career games against the Hawks, Jones has posted a 93.3 SV%, a 2.00 GAA, and a 3-4-1 record. All 16 goals he’s ever given up against the Hawks have been at evens, but knowing what we know about the Hawks’s constantly confounding PP, that’s hardly a surprise. As has been the word all year, the Hawks will have to look to attack him at evens if they want a shot at solving this league-average riddle of theirs.

To borrow baseball parlance, Martin Jones is about as close to a spot starter as you can get. But given the Sharks’s outstanding special teams play, that’s really all he ever has to be. At 28, he probably doesn’t project to get much better than the literal league average, which is just fine for regular season wins. But when the games really matter, average usually doesn’t cut it. And unless Jones can show some consistency in the stretch run here, which he has not been able to do on the whole this year, the average goaltender with the average name will contribute to the average finish the Sharks seem to fall into year after year, and Jumbo Joe will continue to pine after the one trophy missing from his mantle.

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Game #62 – You Don’t Have to Be Beautiful to Turn Me On – Hawks 3, SHA-ARKS 1

By John Pullega 1861 0

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The game flow may have had all the appeal of a freshly shot snot rocket hanging menacingly from a necessary hand rail, but there were quite a few things to get excited about in this Friday night affair. To the bullets:

– If not for the Fels Motherfuck, which apparently is airborne now, J-F Berube would have had a 43-save shutout. But 42 out of 43 ain’t bad either, especially given the circumstances. This was his first start as a Blackhawk in front of a team that doesn’t have much to play for. He went up against a team that got wedgied so hard against Nashville that all the testosterone in their bodies should have been stuffed into their brains, and yet the Sharks, who still have quite a bit to play for, couldn’t solve him. And it wasn’t terribly flukey either. Berube rarely looked lost out there and even made a few outstanding saves in the third, none more obvious than his highway robbery of Jannik “Don’t Call Me Isaac” Hansen after a brilliant saucer pass from Tomas Hertl. It’s a little early to start the “WHY DON’T DEY TRADE CRAWFERD N LET DAT BER-YUBE GUY START” bus, but he sure looked good tonight.

– Anthony Duclair sure played like he wanted an extension tonight, and if the Hawks’s brass is smart, they should be giving it to him. He was all over the place tonight, assisting on both Rutta’s and Schmaltz’s goals. The Rutta assist was a thing of beauty, as he danced from behind the goal line to feed Rutta, who had to regroup his own backfire to plant the goal. And his steal on a flubbed reception from Mikkel “Not Clarence” Boedker was topped only by his gorgeous backhanded pass through the Royal Road to birthday boy Nick Schmaltz. He topped it all off with an even 50 CF% and a 1.55 CF% Rel. All in all, a solid night for the young man.

– In fact, most of the Hawks contributors were on the young side. Vinnie was all over the ice, even though he didn’t show up on the score sheet. Saad was similar, with a 63+ CF% and an utterly gorgeous power move toward the net right before Schmaltz’s goal. Erik Gustafsson looked decent out there as well, and though the possession numbers are damning, DeBrincat looked poised to score all night. While this season may be shot, there is hope for the future.

– Jan Rutta had himself a decent game off the IR. He’ll never be more than a bottom pairing guy, but when he’s on and not entirely out of gas, he’s a serviceable defenseman. He was persistent on his goal, and he now leads all Hawks D-men with six goals, which is less surprising than it seems, given he was scouted as an offensive defenseman.

– Our Special Irish Boy Connor Murphy was the odd man out among the youngins. Tonight was by far one of his worst performances since October. Between his poor outlet pass in the first, his sloppy interference penalty in the third, and his team-second-worst 40+ CF% (behind only Arty the One Man Party’s 32+), it was simply not one to write home about. Though it is tempting to pin it on Seabrook—whom the Sharks targeted any time he was on the ice—it’s not acceptable to transfer blame if we expect Murphy to be what we want him to be, especially when Seabs isn’t doing anything egregious, as was the case tonight. It’s just one game, but it sure was disappointing.

– I’m ready for one of the moron GMs to throw a 3rd round pick at the Hawks for Tommy Wingels. I get why he’s skating on the top line with Saad and Toews, and I get why he’s on the power play, but it doesn’t mean I have to like it. He puked all over his skates on two prime passes to Saad in the first, schlepping it into Saad’s skates on the first and air mailing him on the second. With Saad’s luck this year, neither were likely to go in, but give the man a chance.

–Watching Duncan Keith lose half a step is still weird. His CF% was a 48+ on the night, and one of his most noticeable plays was a botched drop pass at his own blue line in the first that led to a turnover. Yes, he’s getting older, yes, he has to learn to adjust, and yes, he’s playing with Jordan Oesterle, but it’s strange to admit that he’s gone from a for-sure #1 to somewhere closer to a #2/#3 this year.

– The power play is still a fart you shouldn’t have given the benefit of the doubt. It’s a fucking totem for the year.

It sure wasn’t pretty, but it’s two points. I’m far too stubborn and proud to talk about tanking, so two points against a playoff contender is a good night cap.

Onward to Columbus.

Beer du Jour: I went sober for the first, and made up for it with Steel Reserve and Miller High Light tall boys, followed by a glass of the Sacrament on this Lenten Friday.

Line of the Night: “The Blackhawks will put together a win streak for the first time in February.” – Foley

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Game #56 – I’ve Woken Up, I’m In Our Bed, But There’s No Breathing Body There Beside Me – Hawks 1, Coyotes 6

By John Pullega 2500 0

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Tonight’s effort killed whatever sliver of hope there was left for a playoff run this year. I could go on about how the numbers say the Hawks should have won, or point to the fact that the team shot 2% tonight despite taking 38 shots, but it doesn’t matter. All we could have asked for was an effort, and aside from two players, what we got was one of the saddest displays of Blackhawks hockey in recent memory.

There’s more to clean up than we have time for, but let’s try. To the bullets.

– It’s been a long, long time since Hawks fans have had to deal with this kind of answerless floundering. I find that when that happens, the best you can do is look to the positives. And one of the shining beams of hope for next year and beyond is, without a doubt, Alex DeBrincat. Despite playing with the somehow-dangling-trade-bait that are Bouma and Wingels, DeBrincat showcased the skill that is going to make him a star in this league. He was the only consistently noticeable Hawks forward tonight, making plays by himself and scoring the Hawks’s lone goal.

If the point of having him on a line with Bouma and Wingels was to make them look good, mission accomplished.  And if you’re into palace intrigue, DeBrincat made mention of how the team had to “come out ready to play” against a team like Arizona during the second intermission. It’s both encouraging and disheartening to hear a 20-year-old rookie have to state the obvious with such obvious frustration and implied responsibility, but it’s been that kind of year.

– The other bright spot tonight was Erik Gustafsson. He found himself QB’ing the power play after Jordan Oesterle turned back into Jordan Oesterle, and he managed to look decent doing it. His entries were passable, at the very least. He also had a few aggressive pinches that make you think he might have some offensive instincts, and even rang a shot off the post late in the second.

– Now, to the bad. Let’s start with the obvious: The third goal allowed by Forsberg was not only the dagger for the game but also the season. After he let a horrid-angle shot slip under his legs, you could see everyone but DeBrincat and Gustafsson shrug and wonder whether the losing streak will apply to the tables after tomorrow night’s game. Glass Jeff was no better, but what did you expect? Makes you long for the days when the worst we had to deal with was laughing at the jamokes who said Crawford had a weak glove hand.

– If Jordan Oesterle doesn’t sit tomorrow, I’m kicking whoever’s driving the FIRE Q bandwagon out of the seat and flooring that fucker straight down Madison St. with my bare red ass blowing farts until someone answers my call. His complete disregard for the basic tenets of defensiveness led directly to the first two goals. On the first goal, after Anisimov lost the faceoff into his skates, Schmaltz managed to find the puck. He reached his stick out to poke it to Oesterle, who somehow overskated it, leaving Rieder all alone to streak behind the goal, pass it out to Chychrun, whose shot deflected off Domi and in. On the second, he set up Keller just perfectly by ringing a pass directly to his stick behind the net. He had a nice 20-game run or whatever it was, but at the end of the day, Jordan Oesterle couldn’t cut it on an Edmonton team who thought Adam Larsson was an equivalent comp for Taylor Hall. It’s time to quit sniffing the model airplane glue, Q.

– Speaking of firing Q, tonight was the first night where I seriously thought about who’s going to replace him after this year. This isn’t to say that Q is a bad coach, or that he will go down in Hawks lore as anything but the legend he is. But the kind of failure we’re seeing is probably going to require a bigger fish than Mike Kitchen to be sacrificed. Whether that’s fair is another question for another time, but tonight’s effort was the exclamation point on the most disappointing year the Hawks have had during this dynasty run, and it’s easier to fire a coach to send a message than just about anything else.

I wish I had answers for you all. I know that “Team shooting percentage is way down” doesn’t make this year suck any less. I know that hearkening back to all the Cups this team has won won’t make this year just go away. But while this year might be a lost cause, there are still a bunch of young players to watch as the year closes, including DeBrincat, Duclair, Gustafsson, Kampf, Vinnie, Murphy, and yes, even the ghostly Brandon Saad. I still contend that, based on the numbers, this is simply a terribly unlucky year compounded by losing the best player they have in Corey Crawford. Blowing up this roster would be a fool’s errand.

That said, you feel that after an effort like tonight, or like this year in general, there are going to be some paradigm-shifting changes on the horizon.

I’m here for it. We’re here for it. Join us, won’t you?

Beer du Jour: High Life.

Line of the Night: “Let’s see if they can keep it in . . . Nope.” –Foley, describing a power play.

Everything Else

Saad by the Numbers: Tell Me What It Takes to Let You Go

By John Pullega 3538 0

With the Hawks in a malaise, and no answer or savior over the hills, there’s been rabble-rousing about trades. About blowing the team up. About hitting reset. Now, one of the louder calls has been to shop Brandon Saad.

It’s no secret where we at the FFUD laboratories stand on Saad. We were positively thrilled to be getting a proven two-way skater who could flank Jonathan Toews and put The Captain back on track. We thought that he would resume as the force in transition with back-checking skills to boot, upgrading from Hossa Jr. to Hossa Reincarnate. There were even stars in our eyes about Saad becoming a 30- or 40-goal scorer in his return to Madison St.

The lattermost of those hopes and dreams has been crushed this year, but is all as bad as it seems for our favorite Man Child? In times of doubt, we turn to the data for answers, so what do we know about Saad’s year?

To start, let’s look at a claim I made over on Twitter dot com a few days ago.

I claimed that trading Saad would be shortsighted because his ONLY problem was that his shooting percentage was down 3%. Friend of the Program, Jim Brett, said that he wished he could be sure that the shooting percentage was the explanation. So let’s see whether I was talking with my brain or my colon.

First, let’s start where a lot of the pain comes from: Saad’s raw points totals. Through 54 games, he has 13 goals and 11 assists at all strengths. For comparison, Artemi Panarin—the main piece in the trade to get Saad back—has 13 goals and 29 assists through 53 games. It’s easy to compare the two and think that the Blackhawks got hosed.

So, let’s look at the claim I made, which is that Saad’s only problem is his lower shooting percentage (S%).

Saad Team GP Goals Shots SPG S%
2013 CHI 46 10 98 2.13 10.2%
2013-14 CHI 78 19 159 2.04 11.9%
2014-15 CHI 82 23 203 2.48 11.3%
2015-16 CBJ 78 31 233 2.99 13.3%
2016-17 CBJ 82 24 210 2.56 11.4%
2017-18 CHI 54 13 153 2.83 8.5%

Per-game ratio (Shots Per Game [SPG]) rounded to two decimal places for easier reading

Stats relevant to ALL situations

Currently, Saad’s S% is 3.3% lower than his career average prior to this year (11.8%). If we do some math and assume that Saad were shooting at his career percentage this year, he’d have 18 goals, five more than the 13 he has. Extrapolating that over a full season, if Saad were shooting at his career rate, he’d end the year with 27 goals, as opposed to the 19 he’s on pace for.

To recap:

  • Saad is currently shooting 3.3% lower than his career average, on pace for 19 goals on the year.
  • If he were shooting at his career average of 11.8%, he’d have 18 goals through 54 games, and 27 through 82, which would be his second highest goal total of his career, behind only the year in which he shot at a 13.3% clip (1.5% higher than his career).
  • Saad has taken the second-most shots per game (SPG) of his career this year. So he’s getting more chances, and fewer of them are going in than ever before.

Now, let’s take that information and apply it to the bigger points picture. First, a look at what Saad has done to this point in his career.

Saad Team GP Goals Assists Points GPG APG PPG
2013 CHI 46 10 17 27 0.22 0.37 0.59
2013-14 CHI 78 19 28 47 0.24 0.36 0.60
2014-15 CHI 82 23 29 52 0.28 0.35 0.63
2015-16 CBJ 78 31 22 53 0.40 0.28 0.68
2016-17 CBJ 82 24 29 53 0.29 0.35 0.65
2017-18 CHI 54 13 10 23 0.24 0.19 0.43

Per-game ratios (Goals Per Game [GPG], Assists Per Game [APG] and Points Per Game [PPG]) rounded for easier readability.

If you look at the goals per game (GPG) category, Saad is currently just a bit behind his career pace prior to this year (0.29), and that’s while he’s shooting 3.3% off his career rate. If we extrapolate this year through 82 games at his current 8.5 S%, he would end up with 0.23 GPG vs. his career 0.29 GPG prior to this year. While that would be his worst GPG rate since his rookie year, it isn’t so far off as to sound the alarm.

On the other hand, if we assume Saad shoots at his career 11.8%, then his GPG through 82 would extrapolate to 0.33 GPG.

So, a quick recap:

  • At his current S%, Saad’s 82-game GPG ratio would rest at 0.23 (lowest since rookie year).
  • At his career S%, Saad’s 82-game GPG ratio would rest at 0.33 (second highest in career).
  • Even at his current below-average shooting rate, Saad’s GPG ratio (0.23) is at least close to his career average (0.29). It’s a drop, but it’s not precipitous.

Now, what’s really alarming is Saad’s assists per game (APG) ratio this year. Prior to this year, Saad averaged 0.34 assists per game (or 28 assists per 82 games). This year, he’s on pace for a paltry 15 assists. When we consider assist numbers, there are a whole bunch of variables that can affect the ratios. For instance, we’d have to consider the quality of Saad’s teammates (QoT) and the quality of his competition (QoC).

Since people infinitely smarter than me haven’t yet agreed on the best way to turn QoT and QoC into an agreed-upon algorithm, I’m going to try to give you an idea for what might be affecting Saad’s assist rates in the context of which teammates he’s played with most this year. Please note that this method is incredibly imperfect (I’m pulling a Milbury and making it up as I go), but it might give us an idea for why his assist numbers are as low as they are. (For a bigger and better discussion on passing, check out some of Ryan Stimson’s stuff.)

TOI WITH Shots 2018 S% 2018 Actual Goals 2018 S% CAREER Expected Goals 2018 Actual vs. Expected
TOEWS 667 154 9.7 15 15.3 24 -9
KEITH 447 129 0 0 4.7 6 -6
SEABROOK 322 81 3.7 3 5.3 4 -1
PANIK* 289 70 8.6 6 12.6 9 -3
KANE 225 189 11.1 21 12.3 23 -2

TOI in rounded minutes at ALL strengths, stats at ALL strengths, Expected Goals through 54 games

* = With Hawks Only

First, let’s get some obvious flaws out of the way (outside of the ones we’ve already discussed): Toews probably isn’t ever going to approach his career S%, so his expected goals are likely inflated. And Richard Panik probably isn’t a 12.6% shooter in real life, so his expected goals are also likely inflated. And it’s not like these guys took ALL off their shots while on the ice with Saad. But say everything goes perfectly, and the top six guys whom Saad has played with this year score at their career rates. That’s an extra 21 potential assists Saad is looking at just with the guys he’s played with most this year.

Of course, Saad likely wouldn’t convert each and every one of those 21 potential assists among these linemates. And of course, this assumes that all of the shots these players took were with Saad on the ice, which isn’t the case. The point here is that among the guys Saad has played with the most, each one is shooting either below or well below his career S%, which likely plays a role in Saad’s assist totals. Additionally, Saad is currently playing with guys like Tommy Wingels, Patrick Sharp, and Ryan Hartman, who have shown no scoring prowess thus far this year.

So, to recap this section:

  • Saad’s assists per game ratio in 2018 (0.19) versus his career average (0.34) is much more out of step than his goals per game ratios (0.24 vs. 0.29, currently).
  • The players Saad has played with most this year are all shooting below their career averages.
  • The above methodology is at best a stab at why his assist numbers are so low, given the numerous variables that would go into predicting future assist numbers, including QoT and QoC (which don’t have accepted algorithms). Take it with a grain of salt.
  • Saad’s recent partners (Hartman, Sharp, Wingels) are not scorers, further hindering his assist totals.

The numbers above reflect Saad as an individual player. When we look at some of the more team-focused stats, Saad is actually having one of the best years of his career. For instance, he’s currently posting a 58.4 CF% (versus a career CF% of 54.5). And look at the differences among his CF% Rel year-over-year:

Saad Team CF% Rel
2013 CHI 1.5
2013-14 CHI 0.4
2014-15 CHI 0.1
2015-16 CBJ 2.9
2016-17 CBJ 6.4
2017-18 CHI 7.3

Jumping even deeper down the rabbit hole, let’s look at Saad’s expected goals-for percentage (xGF%).  (For a thorough explanation of this stat, click here.) Briefly, the xGF% stat tries to predict the difference between the expected goals for (xGF) and the expected goals against (xGA) while the player is on the ice. Similar to CF%, an xGF% above 50% means that while the player is on the ice, it’s more likely that his team will score than be scored on. Saad’s current xGF% is 53.46, and his xGF% Rel is 5.36. Compare this to some of his other teammates who have played comparable minutes:

xGF% xGF% Rel
KANE 58.46 13.22
TOEWS 55.15 8.56
DEBRINCAT 53.48 4.85
SAAD 53.46 5.36
SCHMALTZ 52.23 1.88
ANISIMOV 50.78 1.71

Minimum TOI bound: 700 minutes, ALL situations

One final recap:

  • Saad’s CF% and CF% Rel are at career highs.
  • Saad trails only Kane, Toews, and DeBrincat in xGF%, and only Toews and Kane in xGF% Rel

So, Should the Hawks Trade Saad?

Short answer: NO, unless.

Based on these numbers, Brandon Saad is a 25-year-old LW whose shooting percentage is down, whose assists-per-game ratio is extremely down, whose possession numbers are on the rise, and who would be on pace for 27 goals and 28 assists (55 points, the highest of his career) if he were performing at just his career averages. Unless you believe that Saad peaked at 23–24 (and it is possible, but not likely), trading Brandon Saad would be selling extremely low.

So, what would it take to get a reasonable return on Saad? I asked our very own Feather about this, and he used Rick Nash as a baseline.

Currently, the Rangers are asking for a pick, a player, and a prospect for Rick Nash, who is on an expiring contract, is 33-years-old, and has exactly three more goals than Saad this year. On top of that, Saad vastly exceeds Nash in CF% (58.4 vs. 49), CF% Rel (7.3 vs. 3.8), xGF% (53.46 vs. 50.76) and xGF% Rel (5.36 vs. 3.55). And wouldn’t you know it, Nash is also shooting about 3% lower than his career average, though that might be the age coming out.

Feather suggested that the Hawks could accept nothing less than double that (so essentially, two picks, two players, two prospects) for Saad. If they accepted anything less, we could assume that the Hawks’s front office has no long-term strategy for this team whatsoever. Don’t forget that Saad will be just 27 when his contract expires, and you’d be hard-pressed to find another well-rounded player like him for $6 million a year.

In short, Saad is having a terribly unlucky year. Outside of his low shooting percentage and outrageously low assist-per-game ratio, Saad is having one of his best years in the NHL. Luck can change quickly, so unless the Hawks can find a haul, I’m willing to wait Saad’s funk out, based on past and expected performance.

Sources

Expected statistics (xGF%, xGF% Rel) for All Players

TOI Stats for Assists chart

2018 & Career Stats (All Players)

Saad’s Salary

Explanation of Expected stats (xGF, xGF%)

Deeper Explanation of Shot Quality and Expected Goals

Discussion of Passing Stats

Special thanks to Jim Brett for inspiring this article.

Everything Else

Game #54 – No One Speaks English And Everything’s Broken, And My Stacies Are Soaking Wet – Hawks 2, Stars 4

By John Pullega 2267 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The Hawks, in the words of the inimitable Tom Waits, are a battered old suitcase to a hotel someplace, and a wound that will never heal. To the bullets.

– Brent Seabrook had a positively wonderful game tonight. His pass on Toews’s goal channeled 2013, and his purposely wide shot on Arty the One Man Party’s PP tally was a tangible example of the excellent passing we’ve always loved about him. Plus, his Corsi was a robust 67+ at 5v5. It’s no coincidence that he played the second-fewest minutes of all Hawks D-Men at evens, ahead only of Kempný. I don’t know about you, but even with the Hawks losing, I took solace in watching Seabrook play well. Like hot spiked cider on a cold, unforgiving winter’s night.

– The same can’t be said about Jordan Oesterle. He had a nice run coming out of the press box cold for a while, but the magic beans he’d been consuming to give him that extra giddy-up have gone stale. His turnover behind his own net let Stephen “One of the Ones Who Got Away” Johns do his best Russ Tyler impression, burying a knuckler—that Oesterle himself may have set the screen on—from the blue line for the Stars’s second goal in less than a minute. He also had a couple of miscues in the third that ended up not doing any direct damage, but did lead to extended pressure for the Stars early in the third with the Hawks down one.  Despite this, and his 44+ CF% on the night, he played more than anyone except Keith. This is your D-corps, folks.

– Anthony Duclair seemed half a step behind everything tonight. He whiffed on a wide-open shot off a Toews pass after stealing the puck from Pissbaby Benn late in the first. His turnover in his own zone led to the Stars’s first goal. From about midway through the second onward, he was a ghost. But his possession numbers were stellar (67+ CF%). He’s still got loads of potential and needs to stay up with DeBrincat and Toews, and eventually be re-signed.

– I want to be mad at Anton Forsberg, by my heart just isn’t in it. At the end of the day, he’s a backup goaltender on a team whose D-Men are either rapidly declining, still learning, or flat-out suck. There’s not much he can do on that first goal, with Radulov firing a perfect saucer pass to Tyler Seguin off the Duclair turnover. Having Oesterle screen him on Johns’s shot can sort of be forgiven. And yes, he needs to stop fucking Tyler Pitlick’s slapper at the end of the second. But then again, it’s perfectly fitting that a guy named Pitlick would score the game winner against the Hawks tonight, isn’t it?

– Connor Murphy started the game on the top pairing and looked pretty good doing it. His CF% of 54+ was inspiring. But he was on the ice for two goals. You can argue that he took a bad angle on the first goal, but given how often he’s been flipped and jerked around this year, it’d be a stretch. And we all saw the third goal: That’s on Forsberg. You’d like to see him get more time with Keith, but with the defensive carousel that Q is throttling into overdrive, it’s impossible to tell.

– Erik Gustafsson looks more like a 5-6 D-Man every night. He’s got decent vision with his passing too, at least when Kane’s on the ice with him. I’d be interested to see him with one of Rutta or Kempný at some point.

– David Kampf probably has a future as a bottom six defensive center. His stick checking was pristine tonight, and he won a few board battles to show off his strength.

– It was nice to see Toews score tonight. He also had a 73+ CF%. But he missed a yawning net in the first off a pass through the Royal Road from DeBrincat, either because he wasn’t expecting the pass or because his skate got caught. Microcosms.

– The chocolates and flowers for Tommy Wingels tonight were a bit much. Foley, Jammer, and Burish barely had time to come up for air between all the kisses they blew at him for TROWING HITS OUT DERE. He had one good hit in the third that separated the puck and drew a penalty, but other than that, I don’t get it. He janked an uncontested rebound off the far post and did nothing other than hit guys the rest of the night. I understand the frustration over this team this year. I understand that we don’t really have any answers. But this whole DA FIRE AND DA PASHUN garbage is already wearing thin. Hits have never been the answer for this team, and they sure as shit aren’t the answer now.

– Brandon Saad did not have a good game, again. He logged a 48+ CF% with Schmaltz and Vinnie. He did set up a few good chances that went unanswered. Like all of you, I want to see him come out of his funk. He’s probably best served playing with Schmaltz and Kane again, but I get how it can be hard to justify it right now. At the end of the day, he’s a good player having both a down and unlucky year.

As it stands, this season is circling the drain. As it stands, the Hawks have good young talent on the front lines but not the back end. As it stands, without Corey Crawford, this team doesn’t have the firepower to make the playoffs.  It’s frustrating, it’s out of the ordinary, and it’s hockey, baby.

Onward.

Boozes du Jour: Jefferson’s whiskey into High Life back into whiskey.

Line of the Night: “HIT SOMEONE.” –Adam Burish on how the Hawks could overcome a 3–2 deficit in the third (I usually love Burish, and I get the frustration, but it’s lazy).

Everything Else

Angry at Numbers: Murphy Go Down on the Merry-Go-Round

By John Pullega 2681 0

This post is not a referendum on anyone’s play last night. Last night was a decent effort by most, muddled by the NHL’s complete refusal to clarify what its own rules are, and peppered with the missed chances, lack of finish, and poor shooting percentages that have become the norm around here. What this post aims for is to figure out why guys like Kempný and Murphy seem to get scratched for no reason that makes sense, while our favorite whipping horse gets the ice despite his performances.

If you look at just last night’s numbers, it might make sense. Seabrook had a good possession game. But he also took a confounding boarding penalty that put the Hawks 5v3. He also couldn’t chase down Sean Monahan with the goalie pulled, allowing him to slide home the dagger. But those kinds of things are exactly why having Murphy sit yesterday and Kempný sit the game before seem so frustratingly random. If either of those two had been in Seabrook’s position, either on the penalty or the Monahan goal, is there any doubt that we’d need police dogs to start the search for them?

Now, the organ-I-zation wants you to believe that Murphy was “sick” last night, which explains why Crawford isn’t currently skating, why they pulled Toews off the ice immediately after his dizzy spell in 2012, and why they aren’t mentioned in the Montador suit. Because player health has been a top priority for this organization. You know how this looks by now.

While I may be an angry man, I can also be a reasonable man. So I decided to parse out some numbers to see whether Kempný or Murphy really deserved to sit over Seabrook. I looked at a few things over the last five games to see which trends I could snuff out. These stats do not include yesterday’s game.

I looked at each player’s total time on ice and the lines he played against primarily in each of the last five games. Then I compared his CF% against just that line to his total CF% for each game. Finally, I looked at the percentage of faceoffs he took in the offensive zone during the game, and logged how many goals he was on the ice for, just for fun.

First, I looked at Kempný.

* = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

Looking at the first two games, the raw numbers suggest that Kempný wasn’t playing that great. His full-game possession shares were below water, despite starting in the offensive zone a vast majority of the time. During these two games (and the next game in Nashville), Kempný tended to play most of his time with some combination of Sharp/Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman, otherwise known as the Smykowski line. He did well with them in Toronto (getting crushed behind the Toews and Schmaltz lines) and horribly in Detroit.

But look at the Nashville game: Against the Turris line—which, aside from Hartnell, is usually Nashville’s second line—he posted a 57+ CF%. What dragged him down was the Johansen line, and he was far from the only Blackhawk to deal with that problem. Recall that Quenneville purposely kept Toews away from the Johansen line as much as he could on the road, and that the Johansen line had a collective 60+ CF% for the game. It’s hard to be upset about what Kempný did there, especially with the shit zone starts.

The fourth game against Vancouver was a relative rebirth. He played most of his time against Vancouver’s top line and completely skulled them. The poor zone starts had little to no effect on his possession share, as he and Murphy led all Hawks D-Men in possession. Additionally, this was a game that saw Kempný backing up DeBrincat–Toews–Duclair just about as often as he did Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman.

After that game, by far the best of the bunch, Quenneville scratched Kempný. He was on the ice for one 5v5 goal through four games.

And what of Connor Murphy, the most consistent Hawks D-Man over the last few months?

* = Faced 4th line of Komerov–Moore–Kapanen at nearly the same rate of time for a 75 CF%

^ = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

~ = Tkachuk–Backlund–Frolik each had a CF% of 50+ against ALL Hawks except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook

Like his partner, Murphy had a rough go of it against Toronto. The Bozak line pushed him crotch-first into the corner of an end table. But the other line he played against at about the same rate of time, the Komerov line, got slimed by Murphy, with Murphy coming out with a 75 CF% against them.

He turned it around in Detroit, pasting the Larkin line despite a huge lead. This may seem odd, since he and Kempný were paired up throughout the game, but I think there’s an explanation. While both Kempný and Murphy found themselves behind the Smykowski line most often, Murphy backed up the Schmaltz line as his secondary forward line, whereas Kempný backed up the Kampf line. Given how Q tends to use those two lines (Schmaltz’s in the offensive zone as much as possible, Kampf’s as a Kruger Lite), it might explain the difference.

Murphy fared more poorly overall against Nashville, but for the same reason as Kempný: Johansen’s line ate everyone’s lunch. And when you consider the putrid offensive zone–start rate and the opponent, that game makes more sense in terms of possession.

Like Kempný, Murphy had his best game against Vancouver. But then Calgary happened, which saw Murphy get creamed by Calgary’s 3M line to the tune of a 17+ CF%. And while the overall CF% isn’t pretty either, especially considering the decent offensive zone starts, it bears mentioning that the 3M line had at least a 50 CF% against everyone except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook.

There’s no doubt Murphy had a bad game in Calgary, but relative to the team, it’s not as bad as it seems. It’s certainly not scratch-worthy in my view, unless you’re blaming the game-tying turnover entirely on him and believe that’s a scratchable offense. That seems a bit too punitive to me, but Murphy’s been Darkness to Q’s Rick James since he got here.

He was on the ice for two 5v5 goals through five games, and was “sick” last night (OF DIS TEAM, YA KNOW WHAT I’M SAYIN’?).

And then, there was Seabrook.

* = Got buried by the Baertschi–Horvat–Boeser line (18+) and the Sedin–Sedin–Virtanen line (40)

^ = Split time against two lines.

This is where it gets frustrating, because none of Seabrook’s numbers justify sitting Kempný or Murphy over him. Against Toronto, Detroit, and Vancouver, Seabrook had decent-to-plush zone starts and garbage possession. In the one game he played the fewest minutes of any D-Man, the Hawks dominated. And if we’re going to claim that Murphy should have been scratched for Calgary’s game-tying goal (he shouldn’t have), then the goal Seabrook fell down for against apparent-future-Hall-of-Famer Brendan Gaunce ought to be grounds for banishment to the center of the sun.

Compounding this problem is that in the four games prior to Calgary, he found himself behind the Schmaltz line. And we know what happens when those guys lose the puck. So in an effort to shield him, Quenneville also managed to set him up to look foolish, which he often did.

Anyway, the first Flames game was an odd mishmash regarding whom Seabrook saw at 5v5. While he spent the most overall time against the Mangiapane (2:55)–Bennett (7:04)–Brouwer (6:19) line, he also saw a not-negligible amount of time against Gaudreau (5:06)–Monahan (4:22)–Ferland (4:49). The Johnny Hockey line also saw the most time against Keith–Oesterle by a long shot, which makes me think that any time Glen Gulutzan’s trust-fund face could chase matchups, he was sending his best at Gustafsson–Seabrook. Ironically, Seabrook held his own against Johnny Hockey & Co. better than against the Bennett Brouwer line. But over all five games, Seabrook was on the ice for five 5v5 goals.

Perhaps most damning are the WOWY numbers for these three over the last five (or four in Kempný’s case). Away from the Smykowski line, Kempný and Murphy consistently logged CF%s of 52+ to 54+.

Seabrook’s numbers with the Schmaltz line cut two ways in terms of bad. In the 31+ minutes he’s played with the Schmaltz line (with Saad on the left side), the entire regiment has had a 35+ CF%. Conversely, Gustafsson and Seabrook have a 57+ CF% away from the Schmaltz line. It’s almost like that line and that pairing don’t belong together.

And that’s not even getting into Gustafsson’s WOWY with Seabrook since he’s been called up (46+ WITH Seabrook, 58+ WITHOUT), or the fact that Gustafsson and the Schmaltz line have a 100 CF% in their four minutes away from Seabrook over the last five. That’s probably more of a sample size mirage, but it makes you wonder.

In short, it’s hard to find a statistical reason to sit Kempný or Murphy over Seabrook. It would make at least some sense to rotate Seabrook and Rutta, given their similarities in style and handedness, and since Rutta looked good by the numbers against Calgary the first time (54+ CF%). Instead, we’ll watch Q and Ulf trot Seabrook out like he’s Blood Sugar Sex Magik, even though he’s decidedly not that anymore, in the name of genius, leadership, or whatever other White Castle fart excuse they can find to justify this journey toward mediocrity in 2018.

Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com

Line rankings & positionings from dailyfaceoff.com, with cross-referencing on NaturalStatTrick