Baseball Everything Else

Those With Glass Ceilings Should Not Throw Baseballs Too Much Or They Will Inevitably Get Hurt: Ranking The White Sox Top Prospects

By Adam Hess 1784 0

Now that we have arrived at the MLB All-Star Break, it’s about as good a time as ever to review the list of the White Sox’ top prospects, because outside of the obvious candidates at the major league level, it’s not like there is too much more to get excited about with this team. So AJ and I took a stab at ranking our own personal top-15 prospects, drawing our line at 15 because getting there is hard enough and trying to get beyond it is splitting hairs, especially given all the long-term injuries in the Sox’ system.

Our lists matched up in some places but varied a lot in others, so we will divide this up into tiers and just have our individual rankings and justifications attached, along with MLB Pipeline’s ranking for the players for a bit more context. Please remember that neither of us are scouts but also might be the smartest Sox Writers you know. Also the Pipeline rankings are gonna change a lot soon but we are doing this now. Thanks.

The Cream of the Crop

Luis Robert, OF

Ranks: Adam – 1; AJ – 1; Pipleine – 1 (5 in MLB)

Adam: I have thought for a while that Robert, along with Yoan Moncada, has the highest ceiling in the entire system, even higher than Eloy’s. Robert basically grades with 60’s across the board and probably has 70 grade speed. He’s gonna be a great hitter and an excellent defensive center fielder that might find his way into MVP conversations in the future if it all goes according to plan.

AJ: This one pretty much sets itself as Robert continues to own every level he’s sent to now that he’s healthy. The only things holding him back from making the September callups is his health and Service Time Manipulations.

The Elite Arms

Michael Kopech, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 2; AJ – 3; Pipeline – 2 (16 in MLB)

Adam: Kopech is probably close to as good as any pitching prospect in baseball on pure talent, and the only real questions about him are how he will bounce back from Tommy John surgery and, to a lesser extent, how much his control issues will hold him back. If he gets back on his trajectory from before the surgery, this is a future ace.

AJ: Elbow or now, we’ve seen what he can do. The only question is which category he falls in: Successful Tommy John or Not.

Dylan Cease, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 3; AJ – 2; Pipeline – 3 (18 in MLB)

Adam: Everything I said about Kopech might just apply to Cease, minus the TJ and with a bit more concern about the control. If his change flashes as good moving forward as it did last week, the control will matter less.

AJ: We saw Wednesday what that nasty curveball can do when it’s thrown at the bottom of the zone. Once he starts locating his fastball, his off speed stuff will make him something else.

The Future Big Leaguers Who Could Be More

Nick Madrigal, 2B

Ranks: Adam – 5; AJ – 4; Pipeline – 4 (39 in MLB)

Adam: I liked the Madrigal pick in 2018, but in some ways it lacked imagination. There’s little doubt about his bat and glove, and he’s practically a lock to be a big league regular, but if he can’t hit for power there are legitimate questions about this ceiling. If he does hit for power, he could be a star.

AJ: The kid can flat out hit (though not for much power), and his eye for pitches is Joey Votto-esque. Seems like he plays plus defense at 2B, which pretty much sets the Sox infield in stone for the foreseeable future. I’d expect him to compete for a job next year.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B

Ranks: Adam – 4; AJ – 7; Pipeline – N/A

Adam: Pipeline hasn’t ranked him on the Sox top 30 yet because they haven’t added the 2019 draftees to the league and team rankings. But Vaughn can mash, and might be something of an Eloy clone in the bigs. If he can play plus defense, this guy is another potential star. At the very least he should be a good or very good player.

AJ: I wasn’t super excited about Vaughn being picked up in the first round by the Sox, but by any measure he was the best player available at the time and that’s my strategy for every draft ever. Vaughn can hit for power, has a good feel for the zone and plays average D at 1B. He profiles out to a Konerko type player, and I’m OK with that. Worst case scenario is he’s moved in a Reverse Quintana for controllable pitching assets later (Hello Marcus Stroman!)

Dane Dunning, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 7; AJ – 6; Pipeline – 5

Adam: Doesn’t have the lively stuff of Cease and Kopech, but every pitch is solid or plus and his plus command should make him a lock as a starter in the bigs, with the only real question being how high his ceiling is. Shares the TJ recovery concerns, though.

AJ: Another elbow casualty. Dunning was mowing people down in 2018 before the elbow strain, and was looking like he’d be in Charlotte by the end of the year with a possible September call up. Now we’ll have to wait till Spring Training next year to see if he’s still got it. The tools are all there, however.

Zack Collins, C/1B/DH

Ranks: Adam – 8; AJ – 5; Pipeline – 11

Adam: I have a lot of concerns about Collins, mostly about his defense and K-Rate, which are pretty big concerns for me. But the elite plate approach feel for the strike zone, along with his power, will keep him an MLB lineup for years, I think.

AJ: Another player with an excellent eye for the strike zone. Pity Renteria would rather play Palka than give him time in the field. There’s still questions as to where he plays in the field, but we will never know until he gets consistent playing time.

Steele Walker, OF

Ranks: Adam – 6; AJ – 9; Pipeline – 10

Adam: Walker strikes me as an MLB regular all day. He can almost definitely play center field but hopefully won’t have to, and a a move to left will benefit him well. He has a plus hit tool with average power and has performed well against Low-A and High-A pitching this year. He’s the non-top-tier guy I’m most excited about, as my ranking makes obvious.

AJ: Walker has been destroying the ball lately, and plays a solid corner OF spot. Walker should be in AA by the end of the year, and start the season in AAA if he keeps hitting at this pace.

Other Guys That Made Both Lists

Micker Adolfo, OF

Ranks: Adam – 11; AJ – 8; Pipeline – 7

Adam: If Adolfo could’ve stayed healthy these past few years, he could’ve been a top prospect in baseball and in the bigs already. He has huge pop and a cannon of an arm to match, which will play in right field if his fielding stays solid. He just needs to stay healthy and his ceiling could be sky high, but with the health issues there are too many questions here raised by so much missed time.

AJ: Man I like this guy, but his elbow is made of paper mache and elmer’s glue. We haven’t really seen him at full strength, but I feel like when we do it’ll be Robert-like.

Luis Gonzalez

Ranks: Adam – 9; AJ – 12;  Pipeline – 9

Adam: While he’s struggled a ton in AA this year, that’s a hard league to hit in, especially with Regents Park in Birmingham as your home field. He’s only a year removed from murdering both levels of A-ball, though, so there is still reason for optimism here. I imagine he will make his MLB debut for a team other than the White Sox, though.

AJ: Another Sox prospect having difficulty putting the ball in play down in Birmingham. I like what little Ive seen of him so far, especially the 4 triples this year. I feel like this time next year he will be hovering around #5.

Luis Alexander Basabe, OF

Ranks: Adam – 10; AJ – 11; Pipeline – 6

Adam: Another guy with a high ceiling being dragged down by injuries. Similar to Adolfo, if he’d stayed healthy he might be in the bigs. Instead he’s been hurt, and then struggled at AA this year. Still could project as a solid RF in the future though, especially with a solid profile at the plate as a switch-hitter.

AJ: Is constantly hurt, and hit so shitty to start he got demoted to A ball from Birmingham. All the shiny tools are there to be a solid CF for the Sox but he needs to hit. The trip to Kannapolis woke him up, but he promptly got hurt again.

Konnor Pilkington, LHP

Ranks: Adam – 12; AJ – 14; Pipeline – 19

Adam: Similar profile to Dunning but the stuff is not as good. The control is not a concern, meaning if the stuff can play up he is back-end starter. At worst, he’s a fine bullpen buy or decent trade chip.

AJ: Every time I see his name I think of one half of The Ascension tag team in WWE. He’s moved pretty quickly through the lower levels, but probably tops out at “5th Starter, 7th inning” kinda guy.

Blake Rutherford, OF

Ranks: Adam – 13; AJ – 10; Pipeline – 8

Adam: I have a feeling that Pipeline ranking is going to keep with the trend and plummet again at the next update. He’s come on a bit more recently, but the power that some projected in the past hasn’t been there, and he can’t play center field. An outfielder who can’t play center and can’t hit for power is something of a bad outfielder. Another guy I think debuts for another MLB club.

AJ: Rutherford has rebounded from a disatrous start to the season and gotten himself to a respectable .262/.298/.371. That being said, the Sox have seemingly hundreds of OF who can OBPS their way to a sub .700 so the power is going to need to show up soon.

Made One List But Not The Other

Gavin Sheets, 1B

Ranks: Adam – 14; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 17

Adam: I did not like this draft pick at all, and for a few years it just kept looking awful. He’s a 1B-only guy who hadn’t mashed when the one thing 1B-only guys need to do is mash. The bat is finally catching up, though, and he actually has finally been mashing the past few months. He’s another guy I think gets traded, specially now that he’s blocked by Vaughn. Getting him to AAA with the golf balls soon to boost his trade value could be wise.

AJ: Another 1B only Sox prospect, Sheets has decent pop but hadn’t shown it until this season.  Solid D at first, but hasn’t done anything to dissuade the Sox from taking Vaughn this year.

Alec Hansen, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 15; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 14

Adam: Hansen went from potential top pick, to plummeting down the draft boards, to pitching like a top prospect, to getting hurt and then struggling (something of a theme, no?). I still have some hopes he can be effective in the bigs, maybe as a bullpen guy at the very least. And maybe some other team still likes the ceiling enough to take him in return for a piece the Sox will eventually need.

AJ: I didn’t choose Hansen for my top 15 as his control seemed to dive off a cliff.  If he can gain some semblance of it back, the stuff he possesses would max him out as a high leverage reliever in the Josh Hader vein.

Zack Burdi, RHP

Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 13; Pipeline – 15

Adam: He was a first rounder because the Sox thought he’d be quick to the majors as a reliever, but then he got hurt and wasn’t quick to the majors. I can’t keep him in my top 15 due to injuries, but he could still be a future closer.

AJ: Plus fastball with control issues and Tommy John surgery. It’s like they’re all following a script. The initial reports of Burdi’s velocity demise may be unfounded, but his control issues persist.

Jake Burger, 3B/1B

Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 15; Pipeline – 12

Adam: Too many injuries. At this point I just think of him as the guy the Sox got after missing on Jo Adell by ONE PICK!!! AJ says it better than I could, anyway.

AJ: Missing and presumed dead.

Guys Not On Our Lists That You Should Watch For

Danny Mendick is an intriguing guy to me. He’s something of a non-prospect and doesn’t show up on many lists, but all he’s done since being a 22nd round pick in 2015 is hit at every level he’s been to and consistently rise through the system. He also can play all over the infield. If the Sox non-tender Yolmer this winter, which I can see happening, Mendick is an intriguing potential replacement.

Bryce Bush is a 3B/OF who made noise after being picked in the 33rd round last year and then dominating rookie ball. He has struggled in Low-A this year and also battled injuries, but has had flashes of brilliance as well and is still just 19 playing at a full season affiliate, so there is hope yet. RHP’s Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year and have high ceilings, though they won’t pitch for affiliates this year. James Beard is an OF they grabbed the 4th round this year who can flat out fly and has a progressing bat, and has drawn Andrew McCutchen comparisons because his swing is similar and he has the hair to match. Bush is currently on Pipeline’s top 30 list for the Sox, and the other three should all be on the list once they update it in the coming weeks.

Getting real deep (and way off any top prospect lists), in the Arizona Rookie League, SS Jose Rodriguez has a .283/.306/.633 slash line, OF DJ Gladney has a .324/.366/.620 line, and 3B Bryan Ramos has a .375/.463/.625 of his own. Gladney is a former Sox ACE guy drafted out of Illiana Christian in the 16th round this year, while Rodriguez and Ramos are both former international signings. They’re all far away from the bigs but all could potentially be on this list in the future.

Our Lists, TL;DR’d

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Everything Else

The Children Better Be the Future, Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Alex Turcotte

By Adam Hess 1880 0

Welcome to the FFUD #3 Pick Preview. Each day, we’ll look at one prospect the Hawks might have a chance at with the #3 pick and walk you through the ins and outs, the what-have-yous, the strands going through ol’ Duder’s head. We’ve narrowed it down to five guys, and much like the restaurant chain, you’ll likely walk in thinking, “This was a good idea,” and walk out grabbing or clenching some part yourself that you shouldn’t have to. Today is Alex Turcotte.

Physical Stats

Height: 5’11”; Weight: 185 lbs.; Shot: Left

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

League: USHL/USDP; Team: USNTP Juniors/USNTP U18; Position: Center

53 GP, 39 G, 57 A, 36 PIM (Combined)

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

You rarely come across a player with the combination of offensive skill and defensive prowess at the center position that Turcotte brings. The last time the Hawks were in this position with a #3 pick, they found themselves one Jonathan Toews, and I’d venture a hot take and say that pick worked out. Turcotte has drawn comparisons to Toews, and some even have fentured to say that he may have a tad more offensive ability than Toews did at the time of his draft.

Turcotte’s ceiling is probably that of a 1C, although there are legitimate questions about A) his ability to reach that ceiling and B) how high he ranks on the list of 1C’s if/when he’s there. While the comparisons to Toews are certainly nice, I am of the belief that if NHL scouts really thought he had that kind of ceiling, he’d be the #2 pick in the draft. With all due respect to Kaapo Kakko, if it’s me I am taking the future 1C over the future top line winger.

Turcotte’s scoring ability seems to project well to the NHL, as some models (like this one) think he could be among the top producers at the NHL level among players in this draft. However those projection models are hardly 100% accurate, so of course take that with a grain of salt. That being said, at his ceiling Turcotte could be a franchise-anchoring center, and the Hawks don’t have anyone really close to that in the system right now. I love Dylan Strome and think there’s still a shot he can be a #1, but he’s more likely a long-term high-level 2C, which is perfectly fine. Turcotte’s timeline to the NHL and being that anchor of a team seems likely to align well with Toews eventual descent from greatness, but that also could be considered a negative as we will see now.

Along with it all, Turcotte is a local guy, which is certain to be a marketing home run and keep the giardiniera soaked idiots on their couches pleased.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him

Let’s just rip off the band-aid here: the Hawks shouldn’t take him because he’s not Bowen Byram. More generally, he isn’t a defenseman, and while the 1C-ceiling type prospect is lacking in this organization, the Hawks don’t necessarily need to find one right away. Toews is coming off a strong “bounce-back” year in which the bad-luck bug finally left him alone. And while I did just say Strome is probably not a future-1C, we’re still only three years and 106 NHL games removed from NHL scouts thinking he was one, and he was nearly a point-per-game player after coming to the Hawks, and he’s still only 22, which all adds up to mean that he probably should get a bit more time to show if that ceiling is still there.

On top of that, Turcotte is not ready to play at the NHL level next year, and while that doesn’t necessarily have to be a priority with your #3 pick, it would certainly be nice to add someone who can contribute right away and has a high-level ceiling you lack in the system. You don’t get an opportunity like that in the draft if you’re not in the top-3, and the Hawks weren’t supposed to be here, so they have to maximize the return here.

On top of all of that, the Hawks picking a center when they so clearly need to address the blue line both now and in the future would signal a major lack of of what I call Knowing Just What The Fuck We Are Doing Here. We’ve talked about the embarrassment of riches the Hawks think they have on the blue line due to the NHL players (a term applied very loosely to most of the guys on the main roster) and prospects they have, but they lack major upside on anyone, unless you’re higher on Adam Boqvist than most, which I admittedly might be. But adding someone like Byram to the organization would actually put you in a position of strength, especially when you’d then have two of the better right-shooting blue line prospects in the game to potentially flip in the future for, say, a player who might have a ceiling as a 1C.

On top of that, Turcotte is a local guy, which certainly has the Hawks pitching a tent but has never proven to work out for them (Hinostroza, Hartman, Hayden, etc. WHY DID THEY ALL START WITH H?!?!). Not that being from Illinois means he is not the player people think he is, but if that ends up actually playing into his decision we have yet another red flag on this organization’s evaluative standards.

Also, you might end up handing Colorado a future pairing of Byram and Cale Makar, which would be grounds for firing on the stage immediately.

Verdict

Picking Turcotte would be fine, and I won’t necessarily be mad about it. But it has potential to be a major fuck up, would present a clear lack of understanding on the front office’s part of how to get back into contention, and I would definitely be disappointed.

Just pick Byram.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Split Two with Nationals: Eloy Hit One to Indiana, That’s All I Care About

By Adam Hess 1363 0

Game 1 – Nations 12, White Sox 1

Game 2 – Nationals 5, White Sox 7

The White Sox have kind of existed within this realm of having a good record but being a mostly bad team for a while now, and this two game set with the Nats kinda proved that to be the case even further. Now at 32-34, the Sox appear to be close to competency and at least theoretically in the Wild Card hunt, but they also split a 2-game series with a team with a worse record than them and had a -9 run differential in the process, leaving them at -55 on the season as well. So really, they aren’t that good but kinda look like they are. Anyway who cares, Eloy hit a ball to the moon.

THE BULLETS

– The White Sox had something called Odrisamer Despaigne start for them on Monday, which is a hilarious insult to everyone’s intelligence but also somehow not exaclt a bad move? Listen, if you want Dylan Cease in the majors at this point, I certainly won’t argue with you on it because I agree, but at this point the motivations are clearly not financial anymore. They have the year of control in the pocket, Super-2 is gone, so it’s not about money. They clearly think there is something developmentally that still needs to be done, and hey I am not really gonna argue with them because even if I am a fool, arms are the one area I just kinda trust the Sox on even when I don’t agree. Sam had wonderful thoughts on this yesterday as he slowly descends to becoming One Of Us. Despaigne also held up his end of the bargain in the game, and the bullpen fell apart, so it’s fine. The wins and losses mean nothing this year so if he needs to start another one, so be it.

– Yoan Moncada tweaking his back is certainly a major problem. One thing that I have just come to accept about Yoan is that he tends to milk it when he is hurt or suffering discomfort, like when he hobbled back to the dugout after scoring from second base last week only to remain in the game and have it not really be anything to worry about. But backs are a different animal. Luckily it didn’t sound too serious, and Sox have today off for him to rest, but the Sox would be wise to take it slow here and let him make sure he’s 100% before coming back. I’d prefer if that didn’t involve an IL stint, though.

– Similar to Despaigne, I was pleased with the start Manny Banuelos turned in on Tuesday. It was nothing special, but after a bad first inning he kept control and didn’t let the game blow up on him. Banuelos’ starts are really just glorified bullpen days, so him getting you through 4.2 innings is more than fine. I’m glad Ricky didn’t try to hold out on him in the when he got in trouble in the 5th to earn him the win, but I also am not convinced that wasn’t mostly because it was said glorified bullpen day. If that had been ReyLo, I bet he stays out there and the inning blows up. But it didn’t!

– Eloy hit a ball forever far. They called it 462 feet and I think that was just a moment of dyslexia and they meant 642. There is simply no way that centerfield concourse is only 60 feet behind the dead center wall. I refuse to believe it.

– As much fun as the home run was, I was more impressive with Eloy’s phenomenal walk in the first inning that preceded Wllington Castillo’s grand slam. Patrick Corbin sliders are nothing to joke about, and Eloy spit on two of them in the dirt in a two-strike count to force Corbin to beat him, and worked a walk out of it. To me, that’s far more evidence of his growth and progress at the plate this year. We knew he could hit balls into orbit, but he hadn’t proven to major league pitchers he could lay off low breaking balls. If they need to find new ways to beat him moving forward, they could be looking for a long time.

Baseball

2019 MLB Draft: White Sox Miss Out On Miracle, End Up With Guy Who Mashes Anyway

By Adam Hess 1415 0

Regardless of how you feel about “amateur” drafts in professional sports, they’re probably never going away in America because of the spectacle they bring. The NFL Draft is their second biggest cash cow to the Super Bowl, the NBA and NHL are able to steal the attention of their audience that cares twice because they have the lottery, and even baseball has one of the more intriguing draft formats that opens the possibility for chaos under the right circumstances. But baseball essentially needs the chaos for it to be any fun, because there are a small number of people who care enough about learning who might play for their team in two or three years enough to pay attention, and MLB Network insists on making the draft itself unwatchable by forcing Harold Reynolds upon us.

Unfortunately for White Sox fans, the lack of chaos last night resulted in two losses – the loss of a dream (kind of) and the loss of three hours of your life if you continued to watch much longer after the Sox picked at #3.

You may not have to pay a great deal of attention to college baseball and/or MLB draft news to have known that Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman was the top prospect in the draft this year, and with the Sox picking at #3 there was always a snowball’s chance in hell they would end up with him. But because of the Slot Value system MLB uses in the draft, which assigns a value to each pick but doesn’t necessarily require teams to pay the player they take that exact amount, there was some thought Baltimore might try to save some money on their first pick and go in a different direction. Given Baltimore GM Mike Elias’ history of doing so as souting director in Houston, it wasn’t exactly a stupid thought, especially since they’re at least 5 years away from contention and Rutschman is little more than 18 months away from being a star at the MLB level. Had they taken someone besides Rutschman and Bobby Witt, Jr. at number one, the thought was that the Royals loved Witt enough to take him at two regardless and the Sox would have Rutschman gift wrapped to them at three.

However, in something of a turn of events for them, Baltimore wisely did not screw up their golden opportunity and took the switch-hitting star in Rutschman. Instead, the White Sox ended up with California 1B Andrew Vaughn, who mashed his way through college and won the Golden Spikes award as the top player in the NCAA as a sophomore in 2018.

Vaughn earns high marks for his bat, with MLB Pipeline giving him 60 grades on both his hit and power tools. He’s coming off a junior campaign in which he hit .381/.544/.716 with 15 homers and 50 RBI. That line was down a bit from his 2018 campaign in which he hit .402/.531/.819 with 23 homers and 63 RBI, but that’s most because those insane numbers made him a prime candidate to be pitched around in an otherwise-normal Cal lineup. Despite playing in just two fewer games than his 2018 campaign, Vaughn had 23 less hits and 15 more walks in 2019, which shows just how much this guy scared the shit out of college pitchers and coaches alike.

The thing about Vaughn that is simultaneously encouraging and terrifying is that it’s hard to find a scouting report that doesn’t rave about his bat. This guy has been called the best college hitter since Kris Bryant, so there is little doubt that this guy is going to hit and hit and hit in the majors. Jim Callis from MLB.com said on MLB Network this week that Vaughn is the safest bet to be a 35 HR per year guy in this draft. Some people have said he could easily do that while hitting .300. He’s also probably gonna be in the majors quickly, possibly even sooner than Rutschman. Basically, this guy is pretty close to a sure bet to be a middle of the order bat, and fast. Those don’t grow on trees, so you take them where you can. Where it’s terrifying is that if history tells us anything about White Sox prospects, it’s that he will assuredly suffer some debilitating injury and throw off his timeline.

This pick also raises a few questions for the Sox’ system moving forward. Vaughn worked out at third base for teams during the draft process, and I am certainly not opposed to the Sox trying him there in the minors at the start, because if he can have that kind of bat and play the hot corner, his value as a player or trade asset skyrockets. But if that doesn’t work, he doesn’t have near the speed or glove for the outfield, so it’s back to first base for him creating a log jam of sorts in the system. Jake Burger Zack Collins are both bat-first prospects who might need to move to 1B, and Gavin Sheets is another 1B-only guy in AA at the moment. In Collins’ case, he’s got the kinda bat you just want in the lineup, so he’d be fine as a DH, and he can probably stick behind the plate well enough to catch 60-70 games for you, so if he ends up as a guy you move around between 1B/DH/C, that’s actually fine. But Burger and Sheets now look like they might be little more than trade chips, and not exactly intriguing ones.

And while middle of the order bats are not easy to come by, there are some legit concerns you can raise with drafting a guy who’s likely to end up at first base in the top-5 of a draft. If he hits the ceiling and ends up as that .300-hitting, 30-dinger mashing guy, no one will care where he was drafted. But if he doesn’t and a guy like CJ Abrams, whom the Sox were heavily linked to in the week prior to the draft and ended up with the Padres (because of couse the guy the Sox were linked to ended up with the Padres), turns into a stud SS/CF, we’re gonna be left with another “what could’ve been” moment.

For now, though, the Sox are looking at a future 1-2-3-4 lineup of Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Vaughn. That’s four guys who should hit around .270 or better and combine for 80-100 homers a year if all goes according to plan. I very much like the sound of that.

Baseball

Series Wrap: White Sox Split With Blue Jays, 2-2 – Don’t Get Too Close To .500, Boys

By Adam Hess 1106 0

Game 1 Box Score: Blue Jays 2, White Sox 4

Game 2 Box Score: Blue Jays 10, White Sox 2

Game 3 Box Score: Blue Jays 1, White Sox 4

Game 4 Box Score: Blue Jays 5, White Sox 2

Before this series got going on Thursday, I wrote in the preview that the Sox had a near-golden opportunity to get themselves within striking distance of .500. When I wrote those words, I severely discounted the White Sox inherent and insatiable ability to completely screw up any golden opportunity put before them, like perhaps the golden opportunity to sign a 26-year old superstar free agent in his prime to accelerate a rebuild. Good thing that one hasn’t happened, right? Haha….. NO YOU’RE STILL CRYING ABOUT IT. Whatever let’s do this.

THE BULLETS

– Much to my own personal surprise, Dylan Covey was not complete garbage in his Thursday start. Would’ve liked to see a bit more swing-and-miss generation from him, but in reality I don’t think he’s any kind of starter long term unless you’re in a bad pinch, which the Sox rotation currently is. But in the end he came just one out shy of a quality start and kept the Sox in it for them to eventually pull off some bullshit in the 8th and win. Thanks, I guess.

– Speaking of that bullshit, although it worked out, I could not hate the decision to have Ryan Cordell bunt Yolmer Sanchez home anymore. Cordell was 2-for-3 in the game and at the moment it happened was hitting .253 with a .754 OPS. There was less than two outs. And sure, he’s your 9-hole hitter, and he might not be anything important after this year, but if I told you that any hitter had those stats and you told me you’d have him try the safety squeeze in a situation like that, I’d punt you between the legs. It worked out and they won, but that doens’t mean I have to be happy about it, dammit.

– Onto Friday, for which I have very little to say other than this – I am tired of Ivan Nova starts. Similarly, I am tired during Ivan Nova starts, because the motherfucker works so slow he is literally putting me to sleep. Also, shoutout to Leury Garcia for Canseco-ing a dinger to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

– Saturday was shortened by rain, but that didn’t take anything away from another good outing by Lucas Giolito. It wasn’t quite as dominant as his outing against the Jays last Sunday had been, but it was still strong, and he went superhuman in the fifth inning, throwing 11 pitches, all of them strikes, and striking out the side to get the game official. He also got credit for a complete game since he threw all five in a five inning game, which was the first Sox complete game since Chris Sale still wore white rather than red. At first I thought that Gio getting a complete game was a Twitter Joke, but then I got fantasy baseball points for it, so thanks, Gio! I’m keeping you around

– Today was a frustrating loss to take, because Reynaldo Lopez turned in a sold start himself and got no help in the process. He allowed one run over six innings, logging yet another quality start, but was left without a decision. That was thanks to Kelvin Herrera and Jace Fry serving up a pair of 2-run shots in the 8th and 9th innings, respectively. Herrera’s surrendered dinger was to Vlad Jr., who hit the ball so far that it just landed in my backyard north of Indianapolis. I’m not even positive the stadium faces this way, I’m just assuming he hit it all the way around the earth.

– Chalk it up as a solid weekend for Yoan Moncada. He ended up with just 4 hits in 4 games, and did go 0-for-5 with 2 K’s on Thursday, but his hits on Saturday and Sunday were all for extra bases, and he has his season average at .291 with a .882 OPS. I will take it, thank you very much.

Baseball

Series Preview – Blue Jays vs. White Sox: Striving for .500

By Adam Hess 1185 0

vs.

RECORDS: Blue Jays 17-25, White Sox 19-22

GAMETIMES: Thursday and Friday 7:10, Saturday and Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN+ Thursday, NBCSN Friday and Saturday, WGN Sunday

THE TORANNA BOYS: Still just follow Zubes on Twitter

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Marcus Stroman vs. Dylan Covey

Aaron Sanchez vs. Ivan Nova

TBD vs. Lucas Giolito

Trent Thornton vs. Reynaldo Lopez

PROBABLE BLUE JAYS LINEUP

Freddy Galvis – SS

Vladimir Guererro Jr. – 3B

Justin Smoak – 1B

Rowdy Tellez – DH

Fun Police Randall Grichuk – RF

Brandon Drury – 2B

Teoscar Hernandez – LF

Danny Jansen – C

Jonathan Davis – CF

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

James McCann – C

Charlie Tilson – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – RF

 

MLB scheduling has done me no real favors by having these two teams go at it on back-to-back weekends, because Sam appropriately said all the necessary things in last week’s preview, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk rehash some stuff or get a find a few new things to touch on. Since we last left the Jays on Sunday, they had Monday off and then split a two-game interleague set with the Giants out in the Bay. The most important development in that series was pretty obviously Vlad Jr. hitting the first home runs of his career, and doing so in exciting fashion with two in one game. They were both monster bombs, as well.

Vlad uncorking dingers now and potentially getting off the early career shnide is the kind of development that would make this season much more tolerable for Jays fans, in no dissimilar way to the explosions of Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, etc. has been able to make this a much more tolerable, fun, and interesting start for Sox fans. There was never really a doubt that Vlad would hit, hit, and hit, in the bigs, and even the most hyped prospects tend to get off to slow starts. Still, I have to imagine Jays fans were hoping for a bit more from him, just like Sox fans were hoping for a bit more from Eloy, who was in a similar boat in terms of his hit and power tools projecting to MLB. Still, both Jays and Sox fans are gonna have to be patient, and I am sure that most of them have no problems with that either.

Speaking of Eloy, his return to the roster and lineup has a potential to be a positive development for the Sox in this series, as well. He went down to Charlotte for a rehab stint the past two nights, and was pulled in the 6th inning of Wednesday’s game. If he’s healthy and ready to return, there is certainly no sense in leaving him AAA just to rehab – he needs MLB at bats more than anything. So I wouldn’t exactly be surprised if he ended up in the lineup on Thursday, though I am not confident enough in that to list him the probable lineup above.

Giolito getting the Saturday home start after dominating the Jays last Sunday is certainly promising, and having seen him pitch so well in his last few times out, him having one more go at a pretty anemic lineup is more than fine by me. I can understand people having reservations about buying into Gio considering he’s turned in his recent dominance against bad lineups, but don’t forget that last year he was getting hit hard by everyone. And also, good pitchers should dominate bad lineups. I don’t necessarily think Gio is the ace of the future, but he’s the ace right now, and MLB scouts with a lot more baseball knowledge than me used to think he was a future ace, so that talent and potential might still be in him somewhere. I am not gonna complain about him pitching well at all.

If the Sox can take 3-of-4 from this weekend, they’ll be one game shy of .500, and if they can take a sweep somehow, they’ll be one game above .500 on May 19. Just like we all predicted.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and The Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Dylan Strome

By Adam Hess 1728 0

As a pretty damn good fantasy sports player (mostly self-proclaime, admittedly) I love a good “Buy Low, Sell High” move. If you’re a beliver in regression, and you should be, nothing can make you look quite as smart as offloading a player who is performing above what you expected and cashing in, especially if you can take advantage of someone looking to offload a player that is underwhelming compare to expectations. It appears Stan Bowman thinks the same way, because there is no better example of a successful Buy Low trade that ended up being a major home run than when Stan acquired Dylan Strome as the headliner return for Nick Schmaltz. Let’s get right to it:

Stats with Hawks

58 GP – 17 G – 34 A

46.18 CF% – 29.2 xGF % [5v5]

It Comes With A Free Frogurt

Despite being hailed as some kind of analytics hero, John Chayka gave up on Strome after a relatively small sample size of NHL experience. A huge part of it may have been that the Coyotes had lofty expectations for Strome after taking him third overall in the same draft as Connor McDavid, but Strome had appeared in just 48 NHL games over portions of three seasons (including this one) in the desert. The production was limited, but it’s not like he was playing with much impressive talent out there either. The Hawks ultimately decided that Schmaltz’ contract demands were just too damn high and that his ceiling of being a 2C might not even be long term, so they gambled on Strome and what is hopefully still a 1C ceiling, though an increasingly unlikely one he will hit.

Strome stepped into a much better situation in Chicago, being able to to slot with Alex DeBrincat, his longtime linemate from their time at OHL Erie, and Patrick Kane. And when the pressure was off his shoulders, Strome thrived. As you can see above, he had 51 points in 58 games, which is damn close to a point per game pace and projects out to a 72 point season if he played all 82. He also contributed well on the PP, with 3 goals and 9 assists coming on the extra man unit. I don’t think anyone ever doubted the vision and skill of Strome, and it’s not like it would be exactly a shock if he busted big time when you look at what his brother did, but the technical ability he had really came to the forefront when he arrived here.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

That all being said, there are still a few things to be a little concerned about with Strome that could lead to a potential production. falloff. Let’s start with those boldened CF% and xGF% numbers above, which are certainly somewhat alarming. The Hawks weren’t a great team in either category, but Strome still had a -3.2 CF%Rel and and a -3.26 xGF%Rel. I am sure that a huge part of that could be attributed to the defense, because we know the blue line was awful, but the center still bears some responsibility for that. To be that far below team rate is troubling.

I think something that could be playing a big role in that is the well documented skating issues that have followed him (and his entire family, really) throughout much of his career. He’s strong in his lower half, and had good enough size to stand his ground, but he isn’t fast by any stretch of the imagination, and that certainly plays against him in today’s NHL. It also makes him something of a misfit in Coach Cool Youth Pastor’s speed-obsessed man-t0-man system. I tend to believe that his skill will play way above this concern, but if there is one thing that is likely to drag him down and keep him from reaching his potential, it’s that.

Moving forward, Strome gives the Hawks a good amount of comfort in terms of the center depth. Even if he falls off slightly next year, he still could be a 60 point guy, which is perfect for a 2C, and if he steps up the production you could be seeing a full point per game pace and some 1C numbers. Either way, it looks like the Hawks won big with Strome.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and the Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD’s ’18-19 Player Reviews – Alex DeBrincat

By Adam Hess 2082 0

There isn’t much left to say about Alex DeBrincat that we haven’t already said a few hundred times in this space or the podcast. If you’ve missed it, I will catch you up – he’s really damn good. I never ever ever want to forget that the Blackhawks got him with the pick that they acquired from Montreal in exchange for Andrew Shaw, which is the most Montreal shit of all time. After a good rookie season in 2017-18, he followed it up with an elite 2018-19. Let’s dig in:

82 GP – 41 G – 35 A – 76 P

49.68 CF% – 46.47 xGF% (5v5)

It Comes With A Free Frogurt!

DeBrincat quickly cemented himself as the third best forward on the team this season, proving that he doesn’t need to be just Patrick Kane‘s running mate to produce. That’s not to say that he didn’t spend a good amount of time with Kane or didn’t play well when with Kane, but he also spent enough time playing at a high level away from ol’ Garbage Dick to prove that he’s capable of essentially carrying a line’s offense on his own. It certainly helped that he got paired up his OHL running mate back in Dylan Strome not long into the season, but I would argue that Top Cat did more to elevate Strome’s game than the other way around.

One of the most important non-linemate developments for Top Cat this season was his development as a power play assassin. Obviously the improved power play was a huge credit to Jeremy Colliton, and there are very few players who both helped cause that PP boom and benefited from it as Top Cat. He scored 13 of his goals on the PP, and added 11 assists on that unit as well. That equates to nearly one third of his goals, assists, and points coming when on the ice with the extra man, which will certainly help inflate the numbers, but is also just what offensive dynamos like DeBrincat are supposed to do on the powerplay. For context, Nikita Kucherov had 15 of his 41 goals, 33 of his 87 assists, and 48 of his 128 points on the PP, and all of those numbers are more than a third of the total production. So not that anyone was really doing so, but don’t let the heavy amount of PP production make you think his production numbers are any less impressive.

Top Cat is proving to be far and away Stan Bowman’s best draft pick and may even be a large reason that Stan still has a job. Despite being picked 39th overall in the the 2016 draft, Top Cat has the fourth most total points of any player picked in that draft, and has a better PPG at 0.78 than two of the players above him in Patrik Laine and Matthew Tkachuk, who both sit at 0.76. Granted, that’s pretty minimal difference, but it’s still better and I am a homer so we’re counting it as a win. Thanks.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

Yet again I find myself in a position where trying to find anything negative to say about Top Cat is a bit of a stretch. However, as I thought more about it I realized that there was one thing that kinda bothered me as I thought more about it, though I usually think of it as entertaining and fun. And that is his desire to throw his body around a bit and play a bit of a tough guy when the opportunity is presented.

It’s not that he is a stupid player when it happens – he only took 15 total PIM this year, which is more than fine. But he sometimes works his way into scrums and did get involved in one fight this year, which is one more than I want to see him have. I know hockey has “The Code” and everybody us out there wanting to stick up for their team, but Top Cat should leave that to his less technically gifted and more ham-brained teammates. It’s not a major issue, and usually in the moment I find it cool, but I quickly switch to dread over the thought of him getting some bullshit injury from off a cheapshot from some dipshit in a scrum. Let’s just avoid the possibility all together, okay?

Anyway, Top Cat is great and I love him. Pay the man.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Take Two of Three From Orioles – The Only Consistency is Inconcistency

By Adam Hess 1151 0

The Baltimore Orioles are quite possibly the worst collection of baseball talent among 25 men to ever be assembled at the Major League Level. I truly do not believe that is hyperbole. That team did not win even 50 games last year and will be lucky to get there this year. A guy on their team set the record for the longest hitless streak ever and still is playing in the MLB. Andrew Cashner was their Opening Day starter. None of it is good.

The Chicago White Sox are 3-3 against them this year and and needed a walk off to win the second game of the double header yesterday. I thought I knew embarrassment as a Sox fan, but now I know that I know embarrassment as a Sox fan. Let’s do this:

THE BULLETS

– If there has been any one thing to take away from this series, it’s that Manny Banuelos might really be a serviceable starter for this team, at least for the time being. That makes two straight starts in which he was solid, and he earned a quality start for his efforts this time. Of course, both of his solid starts came against this trash Orioles team, but considering that Carlos Rodon looked like shit against the same lineup yesterday, I will choose to be optimistic. It’s one of few opportunities to do so with this team anymore.

– Speaking of Rodon, can this guy please pick a fucking lane on what kind of pitcher he is? His game log for the year is among the most perplexing I’ve looked at. He flashes the ace-level stuff he had that made him a No. 3 pick in the draft one week, then the next week gets shelled by the Tigers and Orioles. It’s clear that whatever his ceiling once was will never be touched, and I am at the point where I think he might be better as trade bait than a part of this rotation in the future.

– Keeping with the recent theme, the Sox had a game postponed in this series. If they keep this up, they might run out of make up days, and since they won’t be in contention, MLB can just cancel those games and we might get saved from a few outings here.

– Ivan Nova is a crime against humanity. Straight up. I wouldn’t wish watching one of his starts upon my worst enemy. This guy could take 15 minutes to get a 1-2-3 inning. I think people have closed on houses quicker than one of his starts. It’s horrible. Fucking sick of it. Get rid of it.

– Let’s wrap this up with a few complaints about Rick Renteria, and specifically how Rick Renteria used Yoan Moncada in Game 2 of the double header yesterday. Starting with the fact that Moncada was leading off. Moncada fits the leadoff profile very well, but having him hit there sets him up for failure in his first at bat of the game because he has to change his mindset. Moncada worked on adjusting his approach to a more aggressive one all offseason, and has attacked pitches in the zone with more consistency this year, and it’s a huge part of why he became this team’s best hitter. Making him lead off forces him to take a few pitches, and he can’t be aggressive. Just leave him in the fucking 2-hole and don’t touch it.

– Secondly, why the fuck is Moncada bunting in the 9th inning? You’re down one in the game and you’re taking the bat out of his hand in favor of a fucking suicide squeeze attempt? Get the fucking fuck out of here. Let him swing the bat and be the hero. I’m pissed.

– The Sox had a terrible schedule in April and could’ve come out of this month with a winning record. Instead, they floundered and are 13-15 and their schedule only gets tougher from here. This could be a loooooong season.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and the Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD ’18–19 Player Reviews – Gustav Forsling

By Adam Hess 1904 0

When I was a child, I had this one specific Spider-Man action figure that I loved playing with. Inside the creativity of my chilhood mind, that little Spider-Man was not just Spidey, but he was also a professional baseball/football/hockey player, soldier, what have you, depending on the day and my mood. But one day I dropped that Spider-Man action figure in a parking lot without knowing it, and he got run over by a car, and when I found him I was in tears. My mom loves to tell the story of me sobbing about Spider-Man and me declaring I had lost my “best friend,” as I put it through my tears. Now, dear reader, you are probably thinking “what the fuck is this guy is talking about this for?” Good question. My point is Gustav Forsling may need to be run over in a parking lot.

Stats

43 GP, 3 G, 4 A, 9 P

47.81 CF% – 43.73 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With A Free Frogurt!

Listen, I am not trying to take an easy way out here — I have very little good to say about Gustav Forsling based on 2018-19. It honestly just feels like trying to make anything sort of positive sweeping declaration about his season would be either stretching the truth to an almost irresponsible extent. There are not many redeeming moments I can think of or point to that would give me reason to say, “sure, but look at that!” And the thing about it is, I can’t really for the life of me figure out why.

If there was any redeeming quality about Forsling, it’s that he has the tools to at least be a not terrible player. He has the stride. He has the hands. He has the vision with the puck. He can pass, skate, shoot, whatever. In a vacuum, it all looks like it’s there. Then you take it out of the vacuum, put him on the ice of an NHL game, and he’s like a 3-year-old trying to hit a pinata – either someone is losing an apendage or there will be guts spilled all over the floor, or perhaps both. I don’t know what it is about this young man in his own defensive zone, but he seems to have no clue what to do when it comes to playing defense. And as a, uh, defenseman, that’s a bit of a problem.

But again, if he was a baseball prospect, you’d grade most his tools in the 50-55 range, meaning average or slightly above. But the thing about tools is that without a proper toolbox (player) and tradesman (coaching), they’re going to go to waste. Forsling still needs to put it all together, and he still has barely played more than 100 games at the NHL level. But the time is quickly running out, especially if the Hawks pick Bowen Byram at No. 3 this year.

The Frogurt Is Also Cursed

So let’s talk a bit about what actually makes him so damn bad. As referenced above, Forsling is clueless as far as what to do on the ice in an NHL game, especially in his own zone. I’m not sure if the game is just too fast for him, but it kinda looks that way. He looks like he can’t fully process everything going on around him properly in real time, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record I again note that it’s particularly noticeable when he is in the defensive zone. To take it a step further than that, it almost feels like he’s altogether lost when the other team has the puck, regardless of where it is on the ice. He doesn’t pinch well in the offensive zone, he doesn’t position himself well in the neutral zone on the way back, which leads to bad positioning in the d-zone. It’s all ugly.

On top of all of that, the things that it appears in the vacuum he does well, like skate and pass, end up falling apart in practice. If you had an iso-cam on him, you might watch him grab a puck behind the net, skate it out and make a pass, and it would look fine. Again, the vacuum view is fine. Zoom out, though, and you’ll see the pass is across his own zone to the right wing on the far board and he’s trying to thread the needle between the two forecheckers. It’s another processing error, thinking he can do something that he cannot, that stems from not being able to keep up with the game mentally.

I had high hopes for Forsling from the moment he was traded to the Hawks because the reports seemed promising. At one point, and I am not proud of this, I said from what I had seen of him I thought he could be the next Duncan Keith. I walked that back quickly and said the next Nick Leddy. I wrote it in his 2017-18 player preview, and then in his review for the same season I remained high on him because the tools were still there. I don’t think I am wrong on that at all (save for the suggestion he play with Seabrook, because we all saw how that went). But again, Forsling is either not the proper toolbox to put those tools together, or CCYP is not the proper tradesman to put it together for him. But Quenneville wasn’t either, based on the usage. So who would be? At a certain point, the least common denominator is the player himself.

At this point, I cannot in good conscience pencil Forsling into any future plans for this team. I think his best value to the organization moving forward may be as a potential trade chip. That would require other teams to be willing to take on a bad player, but as long as Peter Chiarelli has a job you know there’s at least one team who fits the bill.